What to watch for in second College Football Playoff rankings
The results from a wild Week 10 will cause some shuffling at the top of the College Football Playoff selection committee’s rankings, as No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson both lost.
The door to No. 4 is open for undefeated TCU … or is it?
There have been three times in the CFP era that a team has lost in the regular season and remained in the selection committee’s top four the following week. It happened in 2014 when No. 1 Mississippi State lost and dropped to No. 4, in 2016 when No. 2 Clemson lost and fell to No. 4 and in 2016 when No. 3 Michigan lost but held strong at No. 3 the next week.
While we’ll be watching to see how far Tennessee tumbles after its loss to Georgia, no team or conference should take a bigger hit when the new rankings are released Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) than the ACC and Clemson, which lost in embarrassing fashion at Notre Dame on Saturday.
Here are the key questions the committee will answer Tuesday night. Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks at what will happen as opposed to what should happen, and our college football reporters weigh in with their picks for the top four.
Six key questions to watch for
1. Will Georgia be the undisputed No. 1? Well, the Bulldogs certainly should be — and this decision became much easier for the group, which struggled last week to separate Tennessee, Ohio State and Georgia at No. 1. There were committee members who felt strongly about all three teams for the top spot, but there should be more consensus after Georgia thoroughly outplayed the Vols, the committee’s No. 1 team from a week ago, in a 27-13 win. Georgia has supplanted Tennessee for the top spot in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, as the Bulldogs also have a dominant win against No. 8 Oregon.
“Georgia is an exceedingly solid team that the committee really likes and felt good about who they are,” selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said last week. “Obviously the dominant win at the beginning of the season against Oregon turned a lot of heads.”
Saturday’s win should only create further separation between Georgia and the rest of the contenders.
2. Can TCU top Tennessee? With the losses by Tennessee and Clemson, the timing is right for the committee to reward the undefeated Frogs, who were No. 7 last week, and slot them in the top four. It’s not a given, though, because Tennessee still trumps TCU with its high-quality wins over LSU and Alabama, and the selection committee had questions about TCU’s defense, which Corrigan said “struggled to keep points off the board at times.” (The same could be said for Tennessee, however.)
On Saturday, TCU once again had to come from behind — this time against a Texas Tech team that fell below .500 with the loss. TCU has also been hurt by a downward spiral in the rest of the Big 12, as the Frogs’ run of four straight wins over potentially ranked opponents (vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State and vs. Kansas State) now looks less impressive. All of those opponents have at least three losses and only K-State figures to be in this week’s top 25. The committee doesn’t just look at wins against top 25 teams, though. It also sees wins against opponents above .500 as respectable, and all four of those teams still have winning records.
Tennessee, meanwhile, hasn’t lost what impressed the committee enough to earn the No. 1 spot in the first place: its wins against Alabama and LSU, and the latter looks better than ever.
3. Speaking of LSU, how high will the two-loss Tigers be? LSU should be hovering around No. 7 as the highest-ranked two-loss team, but still behind Tennessee because the committee will honor the head-to-head result. That wasn’t pretty for the Tigers as the Vols pummeled LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge on Oct. 8. Even with LSU seemingly out of the picture for now, don’t discount the Tigers from ultimately finishing in the top four if they can run the table and win the SEC. No two-loss team has ever made the playoff, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. If LSU wins out, it would have defeated Alabama and SEC East champion Georgia along the way, helping to compensate for its season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State (which could now be a CFP top 25 team) and that ugly loss to Tennessee.
LSU should win its final three regular-seasons games at Arkansas, vs. UAB and at Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-13. Any Power 5 team that can punctuate its résumé with a conference title will have the committee’s attention, and it’s one tiebreaker the group will use when choosing between teams they think are otherwise comparable.
4. Who has the edge, Tennessee or Oregon? This is an under-the-radar storyline that could be critical on Selection Day. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion and the Vols finish 11-1, this could be a huge debate in the committee meeting room. Where these teams are ranked Tuesday will be the first clue, as they both have suffered their only loss of the season to Georgia. The Vols and Ducks combined to score 16 points in their games against the Dawgs — and they’ve scored at least 30 points against everyone else they’ve played this year. Oregon has won eight straight games since that season-opening debacle, and the committee has noticed.
“I think the win over UCLA has gone a long way,” Corrigan said last week. “They’ve scored at least 41 points since that game and … Bo Nix has had a great season. As we looked at it, obviously that initial game, what they’ve been able to do since that time, I think, has really turned the committee’s head.”
Here’s the potential headache for the committee: LSU wins the SEC, but Tennessee is sitting there with a convincing win over the SEC champion despite not even playing for the title. And one-loss Oregon wins the Pac-12 title. Who gets the nod?
5. How far do Clemson, Wake Forest and Syracuse sink? This is the nightmare scenario for the ACC, which is easily in the worst playoff position of any Power 5 conference. Wake Forest and Syracuse, which are two of Clemson’s best wins, should drop out of the committee’s top 25 after suffering their third losses. Clemson can’t be dismissed from the conversation entirely, as it could still finish as a one-loss ACC champion, but it’s clear the Tigers aren’t playing like a top-four team.
The ACC would need absolute chaos in the other conference title games to garner serious consideration, but the committee liked something about Clemson, enough to have the Tigers at No. 4 last week. Their best justification for that move was that Clemson was the only team to have three wins against CFP top 25 opponents, and that went out the window Saturday with the performances by Wake Forest and Syracuse.
6. Is Notre Dame ranked? If the Irish make their first appearance in the top 25, it could help Ohio State and one-loss USC. Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope at a playoff team, but it’s not the only one-loss team still in the mix. Both USC and UCLA would be considered if they can add the Pac-12 title to their résumé. USC hosts Notre Dame on Nov. 26 in its regular-season finale — right after a road trip to UCLA. Those could be back-to-back games against ranked opponents that either catapult USC into the top four or derail its hopes entirely.
Ohio State’s win against Notre Dame in the season opener has helped separate the Buckeyes from Michigan, which has been criticized in the committee meeting room for its weak strength of schedule. While the selection committee holds the Wolverines in high regard, it’s clear that if Michigan doesn’t beat Ohio State in the regular-season finale, it probably won’t have enough on its résumé to finish in the top four. Its best win would be against Penn State. Should Ohio State lose to the Wolverines, though, it would have at least a slightly better chance of consideration in part because of its win against the Irish, especially if Notre Dame can find a way to win out.
What the committee will — and should — do
I warned them last week. The selection committee members could have read right here why ranking Clemson ahead of TCU carried risk. They did it anyway, slotting the Tigers three spots ahead of the Horned Frogs, and paid the price. Maybe they’ll listen this time.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Leave TCU out of the top four
What the CFP selection committee should do: Include TCU in the top four
NC State athletic director Boo Corrigan, and every CFP selection committee chair before him, has a mostly thankless job. Every week until the final ranking, Corrigan must justify the committee’s reasoning for slotting teams in certain places, even if the rationale is different and arguably hypocritical.
Last week, the committee ranked TCU at No. 7 because of its slow starts and perceived lack of overall dominance.
“You look at TCU, and again we’re looking for a balanced team, offense and defense, they have gotten behind in some games,” Corrigan said.
Never mind that LSU, ranked No. 10 in the initial top 25, had started slowly in almost every game: Florida State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss. Like TCU, LSU had found ways to rally and post come-from-behind wins. Unlike TCU, LSU had lost two of those contests.
The Horned Frogs on Saturday played right into the selection committee’s perception of them, trailing 4-4 Texas Tech at the end of the first and third quarters before pulling away in the fourth. TCU has trailed in the second half in four of its six league wins. Even though two undefeated top-four teams lost last week (No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson), the committee has leeway to leave out TCU again. You can hear it now: Tennessee had been more dominant until it faced Georgia; Oregon has been more dominant since it faced Georgia.
But TCU absolutely deserves top-four inclusion after its first 9-0 start since 2010, when the team ran the table and won the Rose Bowl. The reason? Few FBS teams are better finishers.
TCU has outscored opponents 180-102 in the second half and 104-48 in the fourth quarter. The Frogs won by only 10 Saturday, but had a drive stall at Texas Tech’s 4-yard line with 3:34 left, which allowed the Red Raiders to score once more. The final easily could have been 41-17 instead of 34-24.
Teams should get credit for in-game adjustments and dominating the most critical quarter. TCU also has the balance Corrigan wants, even if it’s not always displayed in traditional ways. The Frogs have scored 30 or more points in every game (UCLA is the only other FBS team to do so). They’ve allowed a total of 30 points in the second half in their past four games combined.
TCU likely needs more complete performances to remain undefeated, beginning this week at Texas. But rallies and resiliency can’t be selective traits when evaluating teams. They’ve become TCU’s identity this season. At this moment, the Frogs absolutely belong in the top four. — Adam Rittenberg
Staff picks for top four
Here’s a look at how ESPN’s college football reporters see the current playoff picture.
Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Tennessee 4 TCU
Chris Low: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Michigan, 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Tom VanHaaren: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy and Oregon coach Dan Lanning are unexpectedly giving the Week 2 matchup between their teams some extra juice.
While speaking on his radio show Monday, Gundy said Oklahoma State spent “around $7 million” on its team over the past three years before referring to how much the Ducks have spent on their roster in recent years.
“I think Oregon spent close to $40 [million] last year alone,” Gundy said. “So, that was just one year. Now, I might be off a few million.”
Gundy made several other comments about Oregon’s resources — he said “it’ll cost a lot of money to keep” Ducks quarterback Dante Moore and that he believes Oregon’s budget should determine the programs they schedule outside of the Big Ten.
“Oregon is paying a lot, a lot of money for their team,” Gundy said. “From a nonconference standpoint, there’s coaches saying they should [play teams with similar budgets].”
On Monday night during his weekly news conference, Lanning responded.
“If you want to be a top-10 team in college football, you better be invested in winning. We spend to win,” Lanning said when asked about Gundy’s comments. “Some people save to have an excuse for why they don’t. … I can’t speak on their situation; I have no idea what they got in their pockets over there.”
Lanning added that he has “a lot of respect” for Gundy and praised how Gundy has consistently led his team to winning seasons over his 20-year tenure in Stillwater. Both teams are 1-0 this season; the Ducks are ranked No. 7 and are expected to be vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
“Over the last three to five years, they’ve elevated themselves. They have a lot of resources,” Gundy said. “They’ve got them stacked out there pretty good right now.”
Last year, Georgia coach Kirby Smart referenced Oregon’s resources, saying at SEC media days that he wishes he could get “some of that NIL money” that Oregon alum and Nike founder Phil Knight “has been sharing with Dan Lanning.”
“I think it’s impressive that guys like Kirby have been signing the No. 1 class in the nation without any NIL money this entire time,” Lanning said jokingly in response to Smart during Big Ten media days last year. “Obviously, Coach Smart took a little shot at us. But if you want to be a top-10 team in college football, you better have great support. We have that.”
While Smart’s and Lanning’s barbs had the tone of two coaches who have worked together (Lanning was Georgia’s defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021), the back-and-forth with Gundy on Monday was unexpected.
“I’m sure UT-Martin maybe didn’t have as much as them last week, and they played,” Lanning said of Oklahoma State. “So, we’ll let it play out.”
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David Hale
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — If Bill Belichick were still in New England, still helming a team he’d coached for a quarter-century, where he’d won six Super Bowls, he could have shrugged off Monday’s debacle against TCU as just a hiccup on a long road to somewhere better, answering his critics with his now ubiquitous retort: On to the next game.
In Chapel Hill on Monday, with a sell-out crowd eager to get its first glimpse of a new era of North Carolina football under the tutelage of one of the game’s all-time greats, what happened couldn’t be shrugged off so easily.
Belichick’s Tar Heels were embarrassed, with TCU rolling to a 48-14 win in which UNC didn’t simply look like the lesser team, but one that often appeared utterly unprepared for the moment.
“We’re better than what we were tonight but we have to go out there and show that and prove it,” Belichick said. “Nobody’s going to do it for us. We’re going to have to do it ourselves, and that’s what we’re going to do.”
Through the first drive of Belichick’s tenure as a college coach, everything had gone right.
Crowds filled the bars and restaurants along Franklin Street in Chapel Hill hours before kickoff. A pregame concert, headlined by country star and UNC alum Chase Rice, set the stage for a star-studded event. Michael Jordan and Lawrence Taylor and Mia Hamm were all in attendance as the Belichick era at North Carolina finally kicked off.
And then the Tar Heels delivered a flawlessly executed 83-yard touchdown drive, and the packed house at Kenan Stadium exploded.
This was the dream when UNC shocked the college football world by landing Belichick, and suddenly Belichick’s promise of bringing a national championship to a program that hasn’t even won an ACC title in more than half a century felt entirely plausible.
Then TCU delivered one cold dose of reality after another, and by midway through the third quarter, after Devean Deal‘s scoop-and-score on a Gio Lopez fumble put the Horned Frogs up by 34, the once-frenetic stands emptied out and the hope for something magical in Chapel Hill seemed a distant memory.
“They out-played us, out-coached us, and they were just better than we were tonight,” Belichick said. “It’s all there was to it. They did a lot more things right than we did.”
Belichick turned over the bulk of North Carolina’s roster in one offseason, bringing in 70 new players — nearly half of whom arrived after spring practice. The transformation of the roster along with Belichick’s famously guarded approach to media meant few outside of North Carolina’s locker room had a clear vision of just what this squad would look like.
By the time the bludgeoning was over, the mantra from the Tar Heels’ perspective was that this performance hardly showcased what they’d seen on the practice field for the past six weeks.
“I thought we were prepared for the game,” backup quarterback Max Johnson said. “We prepared for a week and a half for TCU specifically, but we’ve been working on our fundamentals for a year now. We need to do a better job executing.”
After the opening touchdown drive, North Carolina went three-and-out on five of its next six drives. Lopez went more than two hours of real time between completions. UNC failed to convert its first six third-down tries, and Lopez threw a pick-six late in the first half that seemed to be the last gasp for the Tar Heels. The defense was equally catastrophic. TCU racked up 542 yards of total offense and ran for 258 yards, including a 75-yard scamper by Kevorian Barnes, and the Heels missed one tackle after another after another.
“Too many three-and-outs, too many long plays on defense, two turnovers for touchdowns. You can’t overcome that,” Belichick said. “We just can’t perform well doing some of the things we did. We’ve got to be better than that. We had too many self-inflicted wounds we have to eliminate before we can even worry about addressing our opponent.”
Johnson came on in relief of Lopez, who left after his sack-fumble with a lower back injury, and he delivered a touchdown drive that at least offered some spark of life for the Heels’ offense. Belichick said it was unclear whether Lopez would be able to play Saturday at Charlotte, but he left open the possibility that the QB competition could be re-opened.
“We’ll see how Gio is,” Belichick said. “Max came in after being off for a long time and hung in there and made some plays in a tough situation. We’ll take a look at it and see where things are at and go from there. It’s too early to tell now.”
Before the game, Belichick spent nearly a half-hour on the field watching both teams go through warm-ups. He chatted with dignitaries and appeared to bask in the moment, but the magic quickly evaporated.
The 48 points scored by TCU in Belichick’s first career game as a college coach are more than his teams allowed in any of his 333 NFL games, and for as much as he’d worked to sell North Carolina as “the 33rd NFL team,” Monday’s disaster felt like a reminder that, regardless of his success in the pros, this was new territory.
His response to the loss, however, was largely in line with what fans have come to expect of the understated coach — simple, succinct and emphatic.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do,” he said. “We’ll get at it.”
For a fan base that had waited nine months for this moment, however, it could be harder to turn the page. Belichick never promised a quick fix, but there were reasonable assurances that this team would play with physicality and fundamentals, that UNC wouldn’t be out-coached or out-schemed.
By halftime Monday, the veil had been lifted. Belichick has six Super Bowl rings, but this was a bigger job than perhaps any he’d assumed before.
The excitement that reached its apex after the opening touchdown drive perfectly showcased what this experiment could look like. The question now is whether UNC’s reality will ever match the dream or if Belichick’s first drive as a college coach will be remembered as the pinnacle of his tenure here.
“Don’t lose hope,” Johnson said. “We’re going to continue to put our best foot forward, continue to work and trust in each other.”
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Andrea Adelson
Florida State freshman linebacker Ethan Pritchard was shot Sunday night and is hospitalized in critical but stable condition in intensive care at a Tallahassee-area hospital, the school said Monday.
According to the Gadsden County Sheriff’s Office, Pritchard was inside a vehicle outside an apartment building when the shooting happened Sunday night in Havana, Florida, which is about 16 miles from Tallahassee, near the Georgia state line. An investigation into the shooting is ongoing.
In its statement, Florida State said Pritchard was visiting family at the time he was shot.
“The Pritchard family is thankful for the support from so many people, as well as the care from first responders and medical professionals, and asks that their privacy be respected at this time,” the FSU statement said.
Pritchard, who is from Sanford, Florida, enrolled at Florida State in January but did not play in the Seminoles’ season-opening victory against Alabama.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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