What to watch for in second College Football Playoff rankings
The results from a wild Week 10 will cause some shuffling at the top of the College Football Playoff selection committee’s rankings, as No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson both lost.
The door to No. 4 is open for undefeated TCU … or is it?
There have been three times in the CFP era that a team has lost in the regular season and remained in the selection committee’s top four the following week. It happened in 2014 when No. 1 Mississippi State lost and dropped to No. 4, in 2016 when No. 2 Clemson lost and fell to No. 4 and in 2016 when No. 3 Michigan lost but held strong at No. 3 the next week.
While we’ll be watching to see how far Tennessee tumbles after its loss to Georgia, no team or conference should take a bigger hit when the new rankings are released Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) than the ACC and Clemson, which lost in embarrassing fashion at Notre Dame on Saturday.
Here are the key questions the committee will answer Tuesday night. Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks at what will happen as opposed to what should happen, and our college football reporters weigh in with their picks for the top four.
Six key questions to watch for
1. Will Georgia be the undisputed No. 1? Well, the Bulldogs certainly should be — and this decision became much easier for the group, which struggled last week to separate Tennessee, Ohio State and Georgia at No. 1. There were committee members who felt strongly about all three teams for the top spot, but there should be more consensus after Georgia thoroughly outplayed the Vols, the committee’s No. 1 team from a week ago, in a 27-13 win. Georgia has supplanted Tennessee for the top spot in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, as the Bulldogs also have a dominant win against No. 8 Oregon.
“Georgia is an exceedingly solid team that the committee really likes and felt good about who they are,” selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said last week. “Obviously the dominant win at the beginning of the season against Oregon turned a lot of heads.”
Saturday’s win should only create further separation between Georgia and the rest of the contenders.
2. Can TCU top Tennessee? With the losses by Tennessee and Clemson, the timing is right for the committee to reward the undefeated Frogs, who were No. 7 last week, and slot them in the top four. It’s not a given, though, because Tennessee still trumps TCU with its high-quality wins over LSU and Alabama, and the selection committee had questions about TCU’s defense, which Corrigan said “struggled to keep points off the board at times.” (The same could be said for Tennessee, however.)
On Saturday, TCU once again had to come from behind — this time against a Texas Tech team that fell below .500 with the loss. TCU has also been hurt by a downward spiral in the rest of the Big 12, as the Frogs’ run of four straight wins over potentially ranked opponents (vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State and vs. Kansas State) now looks less impressive. All of those opponents have at least three losses and only K-State figures to be in this week’s top 25. The committee doesn’t just look at wins against top 25 teams, though. It also sees wins against opponents above .500 as respectable, and all four of those teams still have winning records.
Tennessee, meanwhile, hasn’t lost what impressed the committee enough to earn the No. 1 spot in the first place: its wins against Alabama and LSU, and the latter looks better than ever.
3. Speaking of LSU, how high will the two-loss Tigers be? LSU should be hovering around No. 7 as the highest-ranked two-loss team, but still behind Tennessee because the committee will honor the head-to-head result. That wasn’t pretty for the Tigers as the Vols pummeled LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge on Oct. 8. Even with LSU seemingly out of the picture for now, don’t discount the Tigers from ultimately finishing in the top four if they can run the table and win the SEC. No two-loss team has ever made the playoff, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. If LSU wins out, it would have defeated Alabama and SEC East champion Georgia along the way, helping to compensate for its season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State (which could now be a CFP top 25 team) and that ugly loss to Tennessee.
LSU should win its final three regular-seasons games at Arkansas, vs. UAB and at Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-13. Any Power 5 team that can punctuate its résumé with a conference title will have the committee’s attention, and it’s one tiebreaker the group will use when choosing between teams they think are otherwise comparable.
4. Who has the edge, Tennessee or Oregon? This is an under-the-radar storyline that could be critical on Selection Day. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion and the Vols finish 11-1, this could be a huge debate in the committee meeting room. Where these teams are ranked Tuesday will be the first clue, as they both have suffered their only loss of the season to Georgia. The Vols and Ducks combined to score 16 points in their games against the Dawgs — and they’ve scored at least 30 points against everyone else they’ve played this year. Oregon has won eight straight games since that season-opening debacle, and the committee has noticed.
“I think the win over UCLA has gone a long way,” Corrigan said last week. “They’ve scored at least 41 points since that game and … Bo Nix has had a great season. As we looked at it, obviously that initial game, what they’ve been able to do since that time, I think, has really turned the committee’s head.”
Here’s the potential headache for the committee: LSU wins the SEC, but Tennessee is sitting there with a convincing win over the SEC champion despite not even playing for the title. And one-loss Oregon wins the Pac-12 title. Who gets the nod?
5. How far do Clemson, Wake Forest and Syracuse sink? This is the nightmare scenario for the ACC, which is easily in the worst playoff position of any Power 5 conference. Wake Forest and Syracuse, which are two of Clemson’s best wins, should drop out of the committee’s top 25 after suffering their third losses. Clemson can’t be dismissed from the conversation entirely, as it could still finish as a one-loss ACC champion, but it’s clear the Tigers aren’t playing like a top-four team.
The ACC would need absolute chaos in the other conference title games to garner serious consideration, but the committee liked something about Clemson, enough to have the Tigers at No. 4 last week. Their best justification for that move was that Clemson was the only team to have three wins against CFP top 25 opponents, and that went out the window Saturday with the performances by Wake Forest and Syracuse.
6. Is Notre Dame ranked? If the Irish make their first appearance in the top 25, it could help Ohio State and one-loss USC. Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope at a playoff team, but it’s not the only one-loss team still in the mix. Both USC and UCLA would be considered if they can add the Pac-12 title to their résumé. USC hosts Notre Dame on Nov. 26 in its regular-season finale — right after a road trip to UCLA. Those could be back-to-back games against ranked opponents that either catapult USC into the top four or derail its hopes entirely.
Ohio State’s win against Notre Dame in the season opener has helped separate the Buckeyes from Michigan, which has been criticized in the committee meeting room for its weak strength of schedule. While the selection committee holds the Wolverines in high regard, it’s clear that if Michigan doesn’t beat Ohio State in the regular-season finale, it probably won’t have enough on its résumé to finish in the top four. Its best win would be against Penn State. Should Ohio State lose to the Wolverines, though, it would have at least a slightly better chance of consideration in part because of its win against the Irish, especially if Notre Dame can find a way to win out.
What the committee will — and should — do
I warned them last week. The selection committee members could have read right here why ranking Clemson ahead of TCU carried risk. They did it anyway, slotting the Tigers three spots ahead of the Horned Frogs, and paid the price. Maybe they’ll listen this time.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Leave TCU out of the top four
What the CFP selection committee should do: Include TCU in the top four
NC State athletic director Boo Corrigan, and every CFP selection committee chair before him, has a mostly thankless job. Every week until the final ranking, Corrigan must justify the committee’s reasoning for slotting teams in certain places, even if the rationale is different and arguably hypocritical.
Last week, the committee ranked TCU at No. 7 because of its slow starts and perceived lack of overall dominance.
“You look at TCU, and again we’re looking for a balanced team, offense and defense, they have gotten behind in some games,” Corrigan said.
Never mind that LSU, ranked No. 10 in the initial top 25, had started slowly in almost every game: Florida State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss. Like TCU, LSU had found ways to rally and post come-from-behind wins. Unlike TCU, LSU had lost two of those contests.
The Horned Frogs on Saturday played right into the selection committee’s perception of them, trailing 4-4 Texas Tech at the end of the first and third quarters before pulling away in the fourth. TCU has trailed in the second half in four of its six league wins. Even though two undefeated top-four teams lost last week (No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson), the committee has leeway to leave out TCU again. You can hear it now: Tennessee had been more dominant until it faced Georgia; Oregon has been more dominant since it faced Georgia.
But TCU absolutely deserves top-four inclusion after its first 9-0 start since 2010, when the team ran the table and won the Rose Bowl. The reason? Few FBS teams are better finishers.
TCU has outscored opponents 180-102 in the second half and 104-48 in the fourth quarter. The Frogs won by only 10 Saturday, but had a drive stall at Texas Tech’s 4-yard line with 3:34 left, which allowed the Red Raiders to score once more. The final easily could have been 41-17 instead of 34-24.
Teams should get credit for in-game adjustments and dominating the most critical quarter. TCU also has the balance Corrigan wants, even if it’s not always displayed in traditional ways. The Frogs have scored 30 or more points in every game (UCLA is the only other FBS team to do so). They’ve allowed a total of 30 points in the second half in their past four games combined.
TCU likely needs more complete performances to remain undefeated, beginning this week at Texas. But rallies and resiliency can’t be selective traits when evaluating teams. They’ve become TCU’s identity this season. At this moment, the Frogs absolutely belong in the top four. — Adam Rittenberg
Staff picks for top four
Here’s a look at how ESPN’s college football reporters see the current playoff picture.
Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Tennessee 4 TCU
Chris Low: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Michigan, 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Tom VanHaaren: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — NASCAR went before a federal judge Wednesday and asked for the antitrust suit filed against the stock car series to be dismissed. Should it proceed, NASCAR asked that the two teams suing be ordered to post a bond to cover fees they would not be legally owed if they lose the case.
NASCAR also asked U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell of the Western District of North Carolina to dismiss chairman Jim France as a defendant in the suit filed by 23XI Racing, a team co-owned by NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports, which is owned by entrepreneur Bob Jenkins.
Bell promised a fast ruling but indicated he was unlikely to dismiss the suit when he closed the 90-minute hearing. The calendar he set when he received the case last month calls for a December trial.
“This case is going to be tried this year, and deserves to be tried this year,” Bell said.
Bell replaced Judge Frank Whitney, who heard the first round of arguments in early November. The teams went before Whitney and asked to be recognized as chartered teams this year as the suit progresses, but Whitney denied the motion.
The teams appealed and the case was transferred to Bell, who overruled Whitney and granted an injunction that allow 23XI and Front Row to compete with charter recognition throughout the 2025 season. That led NASCAR to request the teams post a bond to cover all the payouts they will receive as chartered teams as collateral should the teams lose the case.
NASCAR and the teams that compete in the top Cup Series operate with a franchise system that was implemented in 2016 in which 36 cars have “charters” that guarantee them a spot in the field at every race and financial incentives. There are four “open” spots earmarked for the field each week.
The teams banded together in negotiations on an improved charter system in a contentious battle with NASCAR for nearly two years. NASCAR in September finally had enough and presented the teams with a take-it-or-leave-it offer that had to be signed same day — just 48 hours before the start of the playoffs.
23XI and Front Row were the only two teams out of 15 who refused to sign the new charter agreement. They then teamed together to sue NASCAR and France, arguing as the only stock car entity in the United States, NASCAR has a monopoly and the teams are not getting their fair share of the pie.
Both organizations maintained they would still compete as open cars, but convinced Bell last month to give them chartered status by arguing they would suffer irreparable harm as open cars. Among the claims was that 23XI driver Tyler Reddick, last year’s regular season champion, would contractually become an immediate free agent if the team did not have him in a guaranteed chartered car.
Bell peppered both sides with questions regarding payout structures, what harm NASCAR would suffer if the teams were open cars and other issues.
“Why give a charter to anyone?” he at one point asked NASCAR.
Replied NASCAR attorney Christopher Yates, of Latham & Watkins: “NASCAR would be perfectly fine going back to that (pre-charter) model.”
Bell admitted he doesn’t normally hear motions to dismiss but did Wednesday because “we’ve got to get this case moving.” He later said he felt the hearing was beneficial as he was able to “size up” the attorneys and they could do the same with him.
Bell also warned both sides to work together to avoid disputes and promised the losing side will pay the fees for the discovery portion of the case.
With all indications that Bell is not going to dismiss the suit, it appears the only suspense will be if he orders the teams to post bond before the season begins next month. NASCAR argued Wednesday that it needs that money earmarked because it would be redistributed to the chartered teams if 23XI and Front Row lose.
Jeffery Kessler, considered the top antitrust lawyer in the country, argued that NASCAR has made no such promise to redistribute the funds to other teams. Kessler said NASCAR told teams it was up to NASCAR’s discretion how it would use the money and didn’t rule out spending some on its own legal fees.
Jordan and Jenkins attended the first hearing but were not present Wednesday. Only 23XI co-owner Denny Hamlin was present, along with his fiancee and mother. France and vice chairman Mike Helton were in the gallery with NASCAR’s in-house legal counsel and members of the communications team.
-
Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
DANIA BEACH, Fla. — While discussing the opportunity that awaits Penn State in the College Football Playoff, coach James Franklin said Wednesday that the showdown against Notre Dame is about “representing our schools and our conferences.”
Franklin then caught himself, realizing Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman was sitting just to his right.
“Or our conference, excuse me,” Franklin said.
Penn State will be representing the Big Ten against FBS independent Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Nittany Lions reached the Big Ten championship game before earning a No. 6 seed in the first 12-team CFP, while the Fighting Irish made the playoff as an at-large and earned the No. 7 seed despite playing in one fewer game.
Franklin said he thinks a larger CFP ultimately requires more uniformity around college football, including every team to be part of a conference and playing the same number of league games. Notre Dame, one of three remaining FBS independents, sees its status as central to the school’s identity and has resisted chances to join the Big Ten and other conferences over the years. The Fighting Irish compete in the ACC for most of their other major sports, and they have a scheduling agreement with the ACC in football.
“It should be consistent across college football,” Franklin said. “This is no knock at [Freeman] or Notre Dame, but I think everybody should be in a conference. I think everybody should play a conference championship game, or nobody should play a conference champion championship game. I think everybody should play the same number of conference games.”
Penn State reached the CFP by playing nine conference games as well as the Big Ten championship game against No. 1 Oregon, which defeated the Nittany Lions 45-37 on Dec. 7. The Big 12 also has maintained a nine-game league slate, while the SEC and ACC have stayed at eight conference games.
Franklin, who coached at Vanderbilt before Penn State, praised the SEC for remaining at eight league games, which the league’s coaches wanted. The SEC has repeatedly considered going to nine league games during Franklin’s time in the Big Ten.
“I was not a math major at East Stroudsburg, but just the numbers are going to make things more challenging if you’re playing one more conference game,” he said.
Franklin also highlighted other areas of the sport that could be made more uniform, including starting the season a week earlier to ease the strain of playing more games with an expanded playoff. He reiterated his desire to appoint a college football commissioner unaffiliated with a school or a conference, and once again mentioned longtime coach and current ESPN analyst Nick Saban as an option, along with former Washington and Boise State coach Chris Petersen, now a Fox college football analyst, and Dave Clawson, who recently stepped down as Wake Forest’s coach.
“We need somebody that is looking at it from a big-picture perspective,” Franklin said.
Freeman acknowledged that Notre Dame prides itself on its independence. He said the team uses the weekend of conference championships, when they’re guaranteed not to be playing, as another open week for recovery and other priorities.
Notre Dame ended the regular season Nov. 30 and did not play again until Dec. 20, when it hosted Indiana in a first-round CFP game. In helping craft the format for the 12-team CFP, former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick agreed that if the Irish were selected, they would not be eligible to earn a bye into the quarterfinals.
Freeman noted that he doesn’t have a strong opinion on whether college football needs more uniformity.
“I’m a guy that just [thinks], ‘Tell us what we’re doing and let’s go, and you move forward,'” Freeman said. “I love where we’re at right now. [Athletic director] Pete Bevacqua and our Notre Dame administration will continue to make decisions that are best for our program.”
Franklin said his desire for greater consistency stems from the CFP selection process and the difficulty of committee members to sort through teams with vastly different paths and profiles, and determine strength of schedule and other factors.
“How do you put those people that are in that room to make a really important decision that impacts the landscape of college football, and they can’t compare apples to apples or oranges to oranges?” Franklin said. “I think that makes it very, very difficult.”
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway