Pac-12 After Dark delivers with USC-UCLA center stage, CFP contenders hang on in Week 12
The last time the Pac-12 had a Saturday in November as consequential in the national conversation as it did in Week 12, California was little more than rows of orange groves and a few small studios churning out talking pictures.
OK, maybe it wasn’t quite that long ago, but it’s been a while since the Pac-12 was center stage at this point in the season, and on Saturday, the league delivered.
USC and UCLA traded haymakers in a shootout with playoff implications.
Oregon and Utah traded frustrations in a defensive battle in which both QBs struggled to find traction.
The end result was a pair of three-point games that could ultimately define who plays for the Pac-12 title.
USC’s 48-45 win over UCLA wasn’t exactly a heavyweight bout. It was more like two drunk guys attacking a plate of wings — frenzied, haphazard and unrelenting.
On one side, Caleb Williams was a magician, throwing for 470 yards and two touchdowns and finding wide-open receivers again and again and again. In all, he connected with nine different players, including 11 completions to Jordan Addison, who finished with 178 yards. The Trojans punted just once, on their penultimate drive of the game, and even that seemed like a concession from Lincoln Riley to settle for a field position battle rather than chuck the ball one last time to seal the game. At no point did it seem as if UCLA had an answer for Williams and the Trojans’ offense.
On the other side, there was Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who truly looked as if he had been through a boxing match. By the fourth quarter, he was so battered, he might as well have been flickering pink like Little Mac after one too many punches from Bald Bull. Yet he kept getting up, kept running through tackles and launching deep balls to keep the Bruins in the game.
Thompson-Robinson’s four turnovers — including an interception to seal the game on UCLA’s final drive — proved to be the difference. This has been the story of USC’s season. The Trojans are now plus-20 in turnover margin for the season. So what if USC’s defense is a mirage? A little luck and a lot of offense has taken it a long way, and with Tennessee and North Carolina removing themselves from playoff contention Saturday, the Trojans are in prime position to earn the Pac-12’s first playoff bid since 2016.
For UCLA, a once promising season has devolved with two brutal losses in a row. Chip Kelly can now turn his attention to his real job as everyone’s weird uncle who brings up convoluted conspiracy theories about government corn subsidies at Thanksgiving.
For USC, its playoff résumé got a boost, but the Trojans will face another massive test next week against Notre Dame.
Oregon might find itself as the final hurdle for the Trojans after Saturday’s 20-17 win over Utah.
Far from the high-scoring affair in Los Angeles, this one felt like trying to buy Taylor Swift tickets — tedious, frustrating and filled with technical gaffes.
Bo Nix struggled through an ankle injury but still threw for 287 yards and converted a critical third-and-1 with his first run of the night to ice the game.
Cameron Rising had his worst game as a Ute, throwing three picks with no touchdowns in the loss, including one that Noah Sewell celebrated by doing his impression of a toddler refusing to learn to walk.
0:30
Utah’s Cameron Rising tosses INT
A week earlier, Oregon couldn’t hold off a late charge from Washington. On Saturday, the Ducks fumbled through the second half, but their one successful drive resulted in three points that proved to be the difference in the game. The Oregon defense utterly frustrated Rising, who was just 6-of-13 for 29 yards and an interception on Utah’s final three drives.
If the Ducks win next week against Oregon State, they’d face off against USC in the Pac-12 title game, where Kevin Warren will be waiting with a bouquet of roses and some Yankee candles for the winner.
Until then, the Pac-12 can enjoy at least one weekend in which it was the best show.
TCU’s gamble pays off, Michigan avoids disaster
Saturday’s games were essentially every movie where a fearless hero has to defuse a bomb, shut his eyes and clip the blue wire, not entirely sure if it’s the right one.
It was every airline disaster film where a passenger is called to fill in for the unconscious pilot and land the plane.
It was Nic Cage, shirt unbuttoned and fluttering in the wind, screaming incoherently as explosions wreak havoc around him.
Saturday walked the college football season right to the edge of the cliff and jumped — only to grab a branch on the way down and climb back to safety.
In Waco, Texas, TCU‘s miracle season went from absurd to sublime as the Horned Frogs botched a two-point conversion, nearly ran out the clock with a curious run call, then perfectly executed a special teams scramble drill for a game-winning field goal.
At the Big House, Illinois had Michigan on the ropes, but the Wolverines inched their way down the field on a final drive, watched J.J. McCarthy throw two passes that could’ve ended in disaster, then booted a field goal to win.
The Nos. 3 and 4 teams in the country remain undefeated. Barely.
The final moments weren’t quite so dramatic for No. 1 Georgia or No. 2 Ohio State, but they, too, flirted with disaster. The Bulldogs found the end zone just once in a 16-6 win over Kentucky. The Buckeyes trailed at the half and needed a late pick-six to fend off Maryland 43-30.
Georgia’s made a habit of sleepwalking past lesser foes. It hasn’t mattered.
Ohio State was truly tested for the first time all season. We can forgive the Buckeyes falling into the trap with that team up north on deck next week.
In the end, neither game felt truly in doubt.
For TCU and Michigan, however, their place in the top four seemed about as safe as the average crypto investment.
Baylor led the Horned Frogs 28-20 with less than 7 minutes to play, but as it has seemingly done every week, TCU had an answer. Max Duggan drove the offense 90 yards on 11 plays for the score, then had Emari Demercado wide open for a game-tying two-point try but led his running back just a touch too far.
Baylor had a chance to run out the clock, but Blake Shapen decided to run on third down despite a wide open receiver beyond the sticks, giving the ball back to TCU one last time. The Horned Frogs managed nine plays and 45 yards in the final 1:34, but because Sonny Dykes is the type of person who likes to hit on 18 just to see what will happen, the final scrimmage play of the game was a run. Demercado went up the middle for 2 yards with the clock ticking down. The field-goal unit sprinted onto the field and snapped the ball just before the clock hit zeroes, and Griffin Kell drilled the 40-yarder for the win.
After the game, Dykes said there was never a doubt. The fire drill is something his team practices routinely. Whether Dykes is aware that practicing fire drills doesn’t require you to light your house on fire to make them worthwhile is irrelevant. The gamble worked.
0:32
TCU scrambles to kick a game-winning field goal in the final seconds against Baylor.
At Michigan, the Wolverines were without RB Donovan Edwards and Heisman Trophy candidate Blake Corum went down early in the second half with a knee injury, all of which made finding the end zone something akin to a Where’s Waldo puzzle for Jim Harbaugh’s offense. (Like Dykes’ special-teams scramble, we also assume Harbaugh practices Where’s Waldo puzzles daily.) Michigan had six second-half possessions. One resulted in a punt, one a 10-play drive thwarted by a failed fourth-down try at the Illinois 37 and four others with a field goal.
Lucky for Michigan, it has arguably the best kicker in the country.
Trailing by a touchdown at the start of the fourth quarter, Michigan got field goals of 41, 33 and a 35-yard game winner from Jake Moody. The final series involved two dangerous throws from McCarthy — one into the end zone that just missed the outstretched arms of Illinois DB Devon Witherspoon and the other batted into the air at the line of scrimmage, and Michigan survived.
That whooshing sound you might’ve heard after those last-second field goals? That was the playoff committee breathing an enormous sigh of relief. Oh, how close we came to chaos but Dykes cut the right wire, and Harbaugh landed the plane.
There were so many ways this could’ve gone wrong. Probably should have gone wrong. And yet, here we are, the playoff picture tattered and worn, but still in one piece.
Somewhere at the bottom of the Tennessee River, a goal post is thankful it didn’t have to witness what happened to the Volunteers on Saturday.
No. 5 Tennessee had a real path to the College Football Playoff. It simply needed to beat South Carolina and Vanderbilt and then kick back and wait.
Turns out, that was easier said than done.
South Carolina utterly annihilated Tennessee 63-38 on Saturday in as unlikely a performance as there has been in college football this season.
For 11 weeks, South Carolina’s season was chugging along just as it should. The Gamecocks were not good enough to warrant much attention, nor were they bad enough to be interesting. This is the South Carolina way. They are like every U2 album released in the past 20 years. People are vaguely aware they exist, but no one can recall any specific details about them.
A week ago, South Carolina scored six points.
In seven SEC games this season, Spencer Rattler had five touchdown passes.
In 84 years since the first AP poll, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, no unranked team had ever scored more than 60 against a top-five team.
And yet, on Saturday, unranked South Carolina scored 63 behind six touchdown passes from Rattler.
1:52
Spencer Rattler slings six touchdown passes as South Carolina completes the upset victory over Tennessee.
The loss essentially eliminates Tennessee from the playoff, and star QB Hendon Hooker went down with an injury in the second half to boot. It would be a clear low point for the program if the years between 2008 and 2020 hadn’t happened.
The win was South Carolina coach Shane Beamer’s first over a top-five team. That now ties him with his dad, Frank, who was 1-21 vs. teams ranked in the top five in his career.
Tales of the SEC via Twitter
It’s the most miserable week of the season in the SEC, as half the league tunes up for rivalry games by demolishing lower tier opponents getting paid to lose big.
But spending a bunch of money just to watch a disaster unfold isn’t unique to the SEC. That’s what’s happening at Twitter, too. So as our favorite social media network circles the drain, we figured we’d celebrate the SEC’s blowouts by remembering some of the best tweets ever sent.
Alabama 34, Austin Peay 0
It’s been a weird year for Alabama. On one hand, the Tide’s two losses are by a combined three points. On the other hand, this is the first season in recent memory that Alabama hasn’t been in the title hunt in mid-November. It’s clear there are problems at Alabama. But are they big problems or something more akin to a bowl stuck inside another bowl?
Twitter, I need your help. I stacked a ceramic bowl into another one while doing dishes and now they are stuck. How do you remove the smaller bowl without breaking both of them?
Why am I so invested? I’ve tried to fix this for 2 days, and I cannot give up now. pic.twitter.com/ONfuw7L9dH
— Chi Nguyễn (@whatchidid) June 6, 2022
Things Nick Saban has tried:
-warm soapy water
-oil on edges
-microwave
-aggressive shaking
-WD-40
-Scheduling Austin Peay
That last one seemed to offer some hope, as Jermaine Burton caught seven balls for 128 yards and two touchdowns while Jase McClellan ran for 156 and two scores in the win.
Well, the Aggies finally snapped their six-game losing streak after paying UMass $1.7 million to come play at a mostly empty Kyle Field.
Update. Crowd after halftime isn’t even sparse. ?#aggies pic.twitter.com/IZSjLrkdIM
— Kristie Rieken (@kristieAP) November 19, 2022
And while a win is a win, this was hardly a turning point for Jimbo Fisher’s team. The offense largely sputtered yet again, and has not topped 28 points against an FBS opponent all season (and has gone 13 straight FBS games without topping 28).
For reference, here’s a list of teams that scored less than Texas A&M did Saturday against UMass in the last four years: Stony Brook this year UConn in 2021 UConn in 2018
That’s the whole list.
And that brings us to our Twitter memory to celebrate all that A&M has accomplished this year.
Food $200
Data $150
Rent $800
Candles $3,600
Utility $150
someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my family is dying— wint (@dril) September 29, 2013
Allow us to paraphrase for the folks in College Station …
Food $200
Data $150
Rent $800
Coaching buyout $86 million
Utility $150
Someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. My NIL collective is dying.
Mississippi State 56, East Tennessee State 7
The eastern part of Tennessee gave us Dolly Parton, and ETSU must surely be thinking Mississippi State could’ve had its choice of cupcakes, but now ETSU may never score again. Regardless, the Buccaneers will be talking about Will Rogers and his five TD passes in their sleep.
MY MAN: (comes home)
ME: (nervous) how was the store
MY MAN: fine
ME: oh thank g –
MY MAN: ran into jolene
ME: oh no
MY MAN: she mentioned you left kind of an intense voicemail— Rob Dubbin (@robdubbin) July 28, 2019
But here’s the real question: Do you think Mike Leach has ever been to Dollywood?
Auburn 41, Western Kentucky 17
Cadillac Williams has Auburn’s ground game working, with both Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter each rushing for more than 100 yards Saturday. The win gets Auburn to 5-6 and now all the Tigers need to do is win the Iron Bowl to get bowl eligible.
What my girlfriend thought, first 4 dates:
1. Nice shirt.
2. Wow. A second nice shirt.
3. Okay, first shirt again.
4. He has two shirts.— ristolable (@ristolable) August 13, 2014
What we’ve thought of the Tigers:
Hey, nice national championship in 2010.
Wow, a second national championship appearance in 2013.
Oh, they had two good seasons.
Missouri 45, New Mexico State 14
Brady Cook threw three TD passes, and the Tigers won with ease. They’ll now host Arkansas next week with bowl eligibility on the line. Which brings us to our Missouri tweet.
[mysterious old lady flips tarot card revealing a dude who looks exactly like me flying a hot air balloon into power lines]
Me: is that good— Professor Selfsuck (@boring_as_heck) May 30, 2015
The Tigers have five wins and can make a bowl. Is that good?
Well, here are the Tigers’ five wins so far: Louisiana Tech, Abilene Christian, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and New Mexico State.
They are in a balloon. Arkansas is the power lines.
YANKEE DOODLE: *sticks feather in his cap* This is called macaroni
YANKEE DOODLE’S FRIEND: Ok, cool. Listen man, everybody’s worried about u— pat tobin (@tastefactory) October 3, 2015
Yes, Brian Kelly is a bit of an odd duck. And sure, those jokes about the accent and the dancing were hilarious. But the guy can coach, and if LSU wins out, there’s a real chance the Tigers could become the first two-loss team in the College Football Playoff.
Also, he’d probably be wearing one of those rasta caps and call it mac-uh-roo-nuh.
Sooners win Bedlam
Oklahoma went 1-of-15 on third and fourth down, held the ball for 15 fewer minutes of possession time and didn’t score in the second half Saturday against Oklahoma State.
The result: The best win of the season for the Sooners.
Don’t bother digging into those details. Saturday was a high-water mark for the struggling Sooners. The defense finally looked like a unit coached by Brent Venables, picking off four Spencer Sanders passes in the win and immediately angering Lincoln Riley that he didn’t lure a few more Sooners defenders to USC this offseason.
Dillon Gabriel accounted for three touchdowns, the Sooners ran for 175 yards, and Venables earned his first win in Bedlam as a head coach.
On a week in which former Oklahoma QBs Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams earned wins, too, Oklahoma finally had something to truly celebrate after a season of misery, and in the process, secured bowl eligibility for the 24th straight season, the second-longest active streak in the country (after Georgia).
Texas vanquishes arch nemesis
In Austin, they can finally breathe easy. Those plucky upstart Longhorns have finally felled the monster.
Texas toppled Big 12 power Kansas Jayhawks 55-14 Saturday in a stunning upset that has, at long last, delivered a message that the big, bad Jayhawks aren’t invincible.
Oh, sure, the rivalry had been entirely one-sided of late. Texas hadn’t tasted victory over the Jayhawks since 2019 — ancient history, really. It was a time when a legend named Tom Herman roamed the sidelines, the only Texas coach in the past decade without an L against Kansas. Those were the glory days for the Longhorns.
But Saturday, Bijan Robinson unearthed a bit of that same glory once again. He ran for 243 yards and four touchdowns against the mighty Kansas defense, a sizable fraction of Texas’ 427 rushing yards on the day.
Quinn Ewers got his first taste of the rivalry, and completed just 12 of 21 passes for 107 yards. Still, he earned the win — something no Texas QB had accomplished this decade. Ewers then celebrated by unrolling a pack of cigarettes from his t-shirt sleeve and relaxing on the hood of a 1982 Trans Am.
It was an emphatic win for the Longhorns, their biggest margin against the Jayhawks since 2011. It was a statement, really. No longer would Texas be the Big 12’s laughing stock while Kansas basked in the spotlight of true supremacy. The tide has turned. Texas finally has the monkey off its back. And yes, we assume the monkey then attacked a bunch of kids.
Heels tripped up
At North Carolina, the ceiling is the roof. But the floor? That’s Georgia Tech.
For the second straight season, a ranked UNC team fell to the Yellow Jackets. This one, however, stings much worse.
The Tar Heels saw their long shot playoff hopes disappear along with a 17-0 lead thanks to myriad red-zone failures and a defense that couldn’t get off the field on Georgia Tech’s final drive.
For the first time this season, Drake Maye failed to throw a touchdown. He might’ve had one — and a game-winner — when he hit a wide open Josh Downs at the 1 on a fourth-and-11 with 4 minutes to play. But Downs dropped the pass, UNC turned the ball over on downs and Georgia Tech converted a third-and-4, third-and-9 and third-and-1 to drain the clock to zeroes.
0:46
Josh Downs drops a wide-open touchdown pass that would have restored North Carolina’s lead.
The Tar Heels had four trips inside the Georgia Tech red zone and came away with just 13 points from them.
For the Yellow Jackets, interim coach Brent Key is now 4-3 against ACC competition, staking a strong claim for the full-time job.
For North Carolina, a season’s worth of come-from-behind wins came to a screeching halt when Maye and the offense ran out of magic.
UNC will still play for an ACC championship and has a chance to knock off rival NC State next week. And, of course, basketball season is underway, so there’s still plenty for Heels fans to discuss over a nice Château Margaux sauvignon blanc and some Bitto Storico.
No New Year’s Six for UCF
UCF’s hopes for an American Conference championship are still alive, but one week after taking command in the quest for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bid with a win over Tulane, the Knights ran into a Navy defense that played its best game of the season.
UCF was without starting QB John Rhys Plumlee in the second half, turned the ball over twice, was just 3-of-12 on third-down tries and its defense couldn’t get off the field as Navy chewed up the final 5:54 of the game on an 11-play drive to secure the 17-14 win.
The Knights’ loss further scrambles both the AAC championship game picture and the New Year’s Six bid. Tulane and Cincinnati were both ranked in the committee’s most recent top 25, but they’ll face off against each other in Week 13. UCF wraps its season against hapless USF, and would still make the conference title game with a win. Whether a three-loss UCF could make a New Year’s Six bowl even with a conference title, however, is a big question, leaving the door open perhaps for Coastal Carolina or UTSA to make a late push, too.
The most college football thing to happen Saturday
This season has had far too few random animal entertainment during games. Last year we had the Louisville dog and the Arizona State fox. We’ve had jackrabbits and squirrels and ducks over the years, and they’re always a delightful distraction during a particularly dull football game.
So, a huge tip of the cap to this year’s first truly memorable animal act: The end zone pigeon.
— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) November 19, 2022
The pigeon appeared in the end zone in the second half of Oregon State‘s 31-7 win over the Sun Devils and spent nearly the entirety of the remainder of the game there, without fear that Arizona State’s offense might intrude on his real estate.
With the game a blowout, the pigeon became prime TV fodder, and a star was born.
The director of the ASU-Oregon St. football broadcast on ESPN is fixated with a random pigeon pic.twitter.com/O3dVYH4lBf
— Bob Adlhoch?? (@badlhoch) November 19, 2022
Heisman Five
Caleb Williams made a statement in his bid for the Heisman in Week 11. Drake Maye‘s chances took a nosedive. Bryce Young played a cupcake, C.J. Stroud was mediocre, and Hendon Hooker got hurt. Long story short, the Heisman race remains up in the air and Week 11 did little to define the outcome. But we’ve written enough about the Heisman this season. For this week, let’s turn our attention to the Group of Fivesman — the best players outside the Power 5.
1. UTSA QB Frank Harris
Harris threw for 103 yards, ran for 124 and accounted for five touchdowns in the Roadrunners’ 41-7 win over Rice. For the season, Harris is completing nearly 70% of his passes, with 24 passing touchdowns and eight more on the ground, while posting a Total QBR of 78.9 — better than any other QB outside the Power 5. More importantly, Harris has UTSA with a genuine shot at a New Year’s Six bid if it wins out and gets a little help.
2. Houston WR Nathaniel Dell
Dell led the way for Houston on Saturday with nine catches for 176 yards and a touchdown in the Cougars’ dominant win over ECU. Dell now has a touchdown grab in eight straight games, the longest streak by an FBS receiver since 2019. In his past four games, Dell has 43 catches for 566 yards and six touchdowns.
3. Cincinnati LB Ivan Pace Jr.
Pace entered the weekend as the nation’s leader in tackles for loss with 19. He didn’t add to that total Saturday, but he did help key another dominant defensive performance in Cincinnati’s 23-3 win over Temple. For the season, Pace has nine sacks, seven QB hurries, two forced fumbles and three pass breakups, too.
4. Marshall RB Khalan Laborn
Laborn added another 105 total yards to his season tally in Marshall’s 23-10 win over Georgia Southern on Saturday. The former Florida State tailback has been the centerpiece for Marshall’s offense this season, and he has topped 100 yards of offense nine times. He’s one of just six players in the country — and one of just two outside the Power 5 — with 1,400 total yards and 14 touchdowns.
5. Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke
The Bobcats have won six straight games and have a chance to lock up a spot in the MAC title game with a win next week against Bowling Green. The key to Ohio’s success? Rourke has been nearly flawless. He has averaged better than 10 yards per pass six times this season, including in three straight games. For the year, he has 25 passing TDs and just four INTs while ranking among the most prolific players in the country with more than 3,500 yards of offense through 11 games.
Under-the-radar play of the day
When we debate who made the year’s best catch in college football, be sure to include this one from Duke‘s Jordan Moore.
On a second-and-6, QB Riley Leonard threw a back-shoulder pass toward the sideline. Moore was well covered, and the ball was thrown high. Meh. No problem.
0:35
Pitt’s Jordan Moore makes an astounding one-handed catch.
Moore finished the game with 14 grabs for 199 yards and a touchdown, but the Blue Devils came up just short in a 28-26 loss to Pitt.
Under-the-radar game of the day
Aidan Sayin hit Trey Flowers for a 5-yard touchdown on fourth-and-goal with 5 seconds to play to lead Penn over Princeton, a win that handed the Ivy League title to Yale.
Q4 :05 | Penn 20, #22 Princeton 19
SAYIN TO FLOWERS!!! Quakers take the lead with five seconds left!!!#FightOnPenn x #BEGREAT pic.twitter.com/vmKV1R73aM
— Penn Football (@PENNfb) November 19, 2022
No doubt this will result in those new money Yalies ribbing their rivals with some droll remarks between bits of crudité down at the marina. But let them have their American football. Princeton will always excel at gentlemanly club life.
Big bets and bad beats
This week, Las Vegas set the lowest over-under for a college football game in the past 20 years for Iowa and Minnesota‘s matchup. The Hawkeyes considered it a dare.
With a total that closed at just 31.5, Iowa and Minnesota never even sniffed the over. Iowa took a 10-7 lead to the half, but after the break, the two teams opted to engage in a war of attrition that included less action than the average staring contest.
The Gophers had a prime chance to put the game away midway through the fourth quarter (though, in fairness, a second touchdown against Iowa at any point during a game usually ensures a win) when Mohamed Ibrahim carried 14 times on a 16-play drive but fumbled on a third-and-4 in the red zone. After a Minnesota interception on its next drive, Iowa scored a field goal to secure the win.
Ibrahim finished just 10 yards shy of matching Iowa’s total yardage, carrying 39 times for 263 yards (with a catch for seven more), but it wasn’t enough.
The under covered easily. Iowa won for the fourth time this season in a game in which it failed to crack 300 yards of offense.
The top four teams in the country all won Saturday, but none of them covered.
Georgia was a 22.5-point favorite against Kentucky but won by just 10. Ohio State was a 26-point favorite against Maryland but led by just three in the final minutes of the game. Michigan was a 17-point favorite and needed a last-second field goal to pull out the victory over Illinois. And TCU, favored by just two, escaped Baylor by a point.
This year’s installment of Cal–Stanford won’t be remembered as the wildest ending in the rivalry, but bettors of the under will certainly be talking about it for a while.
The total closed at 46 and the under looked like an easy winner with Stanford leading 17-6 after three quarters. But Cal responded with three fourth-quarter touchdowns to take a 27-17 lead with 58 seconds to play. It was enough to get bettors sweating, but at 44 points, the under remained safe.
Well, it should have anyway.
Stanford got the ball back, ran nine plays for 37 yards to the Cal 43 and then, with just five seconds remaining, lined up for a 61-yard field goal try.
Why? Our only guess is crypto is in the tank and too many Stanford boosters had the over.
In any case, Joshua Karty‘s kick was good — sealing Stanford’s 27-20 loss and a wild cover for the over.
The 2025 MLB draft is just around the corner, with the first round set to take place on July 13 in Atlanta.
While most of our mock drafts leading up to draft day focus on who we believe teams will take, we decided to have some fun by asking our MLB experts to play GM and make the picks they believe all 30 teams should make in the first rounds of this year’s draft.
For this exercise, Kiley McDaniel made the picks for all NL East and AL East teams, David Schoenfield for the two Central divisions, and Jeff Passan for the West division teams. To add to the intrigue, we decided to allow our GMs to trade draft picks at any point in the process.
Who went off the board first? Which MLB stars were traded in our mock draft? And where did the GM trash talk heat up? Here’s how the first 40 picks of the 2025 MLB draft would play out if we were calling the shots.
Pick: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Nationals GM McDaniel: There’s a tightly packed group at the top of this year’s class with no clear best prospect, so I offered Mariners GM Jeff Passan the No. 1 overall pick for the third and 35th pick … and he turned me down.
I’ll stick with the pick and take Anderson, who is considered the best combination of potential and proximity to the big leagues. His timeline to the big leagues fits the general timeline of the Nationals’ wave of talent coming up (Travis Sykora, Luke Dickerson, Jarlin Susana, Seaver King, Cade Cavalli), the group that just showed up in the big leagues (James Wood, Dylan Crews, Brady House, Daylen Lile) and core (MacKenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams) already starring in the majors. With some smart moves, this could be a competitive team in the next year or two.
Pick: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Angels GM Passan: The Angels love fast-moving college players, and while their past three first-round picks have been productive college, there are gaping holes in their starting rotation that need addressing. Doyle, whose high-velocity, high-spin fastball looked invisible to SEC hitters, could be the sort of player who rockets into Los Angeles’ rotation.
With a seeming Jo Adell breakout, Zach Neto looking like a star and Mike Trout healthy for now, there’s a path to contention for the Angels. And whether it’s Anderson, Doyle or the next guy to go, college lefty looks like the likeliest — and most pragmatic — route for the Angels. And whoever it winds up being, it would surprise nobody if he’s in the big leagues by August.
Pick: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Mariners GM Passan: With Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo two years from free agency, a minor league system loaded with hitters, and Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez locked up long term, a fast-moving arm makes sense for the Mariners. I considered Ethan Holliday and even Seth Hernandez with this pick, and while I wasn’t opposed to trading down, the Mariners need impact, not bulk. They get that in the 6-foot-1, 190-pound Arnold, whose slingshot delivery pumps 98 mph fastballs and a devastating slider that helped him strike out six times as many hitters as he walked for the Seminoles.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: As things stand, the three lefties going in the top three picks is the single most likely outcome at the top of the draft, so this is chalk.
Pick: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rockies GM Passan: A massive, power-hitting athlete named Holliday in a Rockies uniform is just right. And this isn’t just for the cute story of Ethan Holliday following in the footsteps of his father, Matt, who spent his first six seasons with the Rockies. Holliday is atop the draft board of a number of teams. He’s different than his older brother (and 2022 No. 1 pick), Jackson. Ethan is bigger (6-foot-4), heartier (210 pounds) and likelier to stay on the left side of the infield. Power is his carrying tool, and with the Rockies years away from contention, they can target upside that might be a little slower developing than the college talent still on the board.
GM McDaniel: As the Rays GM, I offered the 14th, 37th and 86th picks to move up to this spot to get one of the players in the top group. As Jays GM, I offered the eighth and 112th picks. I wasn’t trading up for a specific player, but this pick was open for bidding, and I was worried the players I wanted in each spot would run out by the seventh pick. Passan turned down both offers, and it worked out for Toronto, as you’ll see below.
Pick: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Cardinals GM Schoenfield: The Cardinals haven’t drafted this high since taking J.D. Drew fifth in 1998 after he went unsigned the year before. That turned out pretty well, as Drew gave them five solid seasons (although not the superstar seasons predicted) and was then traded for Adam Wainwright.
The Cardinals usually prefer college players in the first round, but they did take high schoolers Jordan Walker in 2020 and Nolan Gorman in 2018 and chief baseball officer-in-waiting Chaim Bloom might have a different philosophy from John Mozeliak. Parker is projected to have an excellent hit tool, similar to JJ Wetherholt, last year’s first-round pick. Parker probably slides over to third, giving them a potential long-term infield of Wetherholt at second, Masyn Winn at shortstop and Parker at third.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: This is where the draft becomes unpredictable and the Cards have a number of reasonable options, so I’d expect bonus demands to heavily dictate the real outcome, which is something Dave couldn’t do here.
Pick: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Pirates GM Schoenfield: With the years already counting down on Paul Skenes’ period of team control, it probably behooves the Pirates to draft a college player who can move quickly. You never want to draft just for need, but the Pirates do need offense, and Arquette hit .354 with 19 home runs for the Beavers — although with the demise of the Pac-12, the Beavers played an independent schedule in which they didn’t necessarily face a lot of quality pitching. Arquette is a big 6-foot-5, 220-pound shortstop, but he’s athletic with 25-homer potential and could always slide over to third base. Either way, the Pirates need help at both positions.
Pick: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Marlins GM McDaniel: I was hoping to get Willits or Parker at this pick and because Arquette went sixth, I got my man here. This also happens to be what Miami is rumored to be looking to do at this pick. If Willits went sixth, I’d be in a tough spot with two picks coming up and my primary targets off the board, likely moving toward a pitcher or the next prep shortstop on the board.
Pick: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Blue Jays GM McDaniel: Got our guy! You could argue Hernandez should’ve gone a few picks higher than this and that he’s the last player in the top tier. There are one or two more players still available that some teams will have at the tail end of the top tier, and many teams in reality won’t take a prep righty in the top 10 picks. I believe the Jays are one of those teams, and I also think Hernandez might be the exception to that reasonable rule, so I made them get out of their own way to make the right pick here.
GM Passan: I offered Eugenio Suarez, Shelby Miller and the 25th pick in the draft to move up to this slot — where I was going to select Hernandez for the Diamondbacks. Kiley said no because he is soft.
GM McDaniel: Wah wah wah.
Pick: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Reds GM Schoenfield: The Reds tried to make the same deal the Blue Jays were offered, even throwing in Connor Phillips to sweeten the offer, but the Diamondbacks had their eyes set on Hernandez. Suarez would have been a perfect addition to an intriguing Reds team that needs to supplement its rotation with an impact bat at the trade deadline.
In the meantime, the Reds pass on one of the good defensive shortstops — not exactly a need at the moment — and given their success in pitcher development, take Witherspoon on the heels of selecting Chase Burns last year. Witherspoon had 2.65 ERA for the Sooners with 124 K’s in 95 innings, topping out at 99 mph with a deep arsenal of pitches.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: Like with the St. Louis pick at No. 5, this is another spot where the draft really opens up and about a dozen different prospects that weren’t really options at No. 7 or No. 8 now come into play. I’d expect signing bonus demands to be a factor here, as well, if this scenario plays out come draft day.
Pick: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
White Sox GM Schoenfield: Colson Montgomery, once the shortstop of the future for the White Sox, has stalled out in Triple-A (hitting .188), and Carlson — Seth Hernandez’s high school teammate — presents the best mix of defense and offensive potential. He has an 80 arm and plus range at shortstop with plus bat speed and above-average raw power. He does turn 19 right after draft day, which is a negative for some teams, but, hey, so did Bobby Witt Jr. when the Royals drafted him.
Trade alert!
11. Tampa Bay Rays, via trade with Athletics
Pick: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rays GM McDaniel: I gave the A’s the No. 86 pick to move up from No. 14 to this spot. The trade allows me to add a player who wasn’t likely to be available at No. 14 and is on the tail end of the 45-plus FV tier before we descend into the mush of similar college players in the 45 FV tier.
Hall is a 70-grade runner who will stick at short and has a good feel to lift the ball, akin to Trea Turner, Anthony Volpe or Jett Williams. The 86th pick is likely a somewhat generic lottery ticket or role player, a small price to pay to get a notably better player. I’d try to trade down if I didn’t have a shot to land a 45-plus FV player for the Rays. Plus, the Rays have extra picks, so using one to land a better first pick is a luxury I’ll take advantage of here.
Given the setup of this exercise, I’m not looking at the draft pool amount because I don’t get to move money around and make the later picks. Instead, I’m simply looking at picks and players and their values, similar to the pro football and basketball drafts. This is basically the same thing as offering an over-slot amount to Hall to get to the No. 14 pick, then going under slot at 86. I don’t think that would work in real life, so this exercise made for a better outcome.
GM Passan: I got an extra $250,000 in bonus-pool money and am hopeful to wind up with the same player I’d have taken at 11. We’ll see.
Pick: Ike Irish, RF/C, Auburn
Rangers GM Passan: The Rangers need fast-moving bats, and Irish is coming off the best offensive season of any draft-eligible college hitter. Whether he winds up at catcher, right field or first base remains up in the air, but for a Rangers team without a clear long-term solution at any of the three positions, he fits.
Pick: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona
Giants GM Passan: Not only does Summerhill look the part at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, his offensive game matches it: .343/.459/.556 with 22 extra-base hits in 207 plate appearances for the Wildcats. While he can man center field, Summerhill profiles better in right, where the Giants need a long-term solution with Mike Yastrzemski’s impending free agency. Summerhill does not have a huge ceiling. He’s just a good all-around ballplayer for a team striving to be solid top to bottom.
Trade alert!
14. Athletics, via trade with Rays
Pick: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Athletics GM Passan: I did indeed wind up with the same player I’d have taken at No. 11. Wood, author of the first College World Series no-hitter in more than half a century, has been in the upper 90s with his fastball and has leapt up draft boards in recent weeks.
The A’s could use some near-big-league-ready starting pitching, and while a shoulder impingement that sidelined Wood this season is cause for some alarm, he has the rare combination of stuff and control that can get a player to the big leagues tout de suite.
Pick: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Red Sox GM McDaniel: I was down to Wood and Fien as top options after I took Hall for the Rays, so holding my breath and not trading up ended up working here. I’m the high guy on Fien in predraft rankings, and the Red Sox are rumored to be the high team on him in real life, so this is a pretty likely outcome. He was a top-10 prospect coming out of the summer before he had a mediocre spring. But he still has the same tools and had a strong showing at the draft combine, affirming the upside is still there. This is the part of the draft I referred to as the “mush” of similar, 45 FV grade college players, and Fien is one of a couple of prep prospects who fit in there.
Pick: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Twins GM Schoenfield: The Twins have Carlos Correa signed through at least 2028 and have Brooks Lee in the majors, and their top two picks last year were shortstops Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge, but Houston provides too much potential value to pass up here. He might be the best defensive shortstop in the draft, at least at the collegiate level, and had an OPS over 1.000 for Wake Forest, hitting .354 with 15 home runs and as many walks as strikeouts.
Trade alert!
Pick: Gavin Kilen, SS/2B, Tennessee
Guardians (and Cubs) GM Schoenfield: Trade! The Cubs deal this pick, outfielder Kevin Alcantara and reliever Luke Little to Cleveland for closer Emmanuel Clase and Cleveland’s third-round pick.
The Cubs have one of the best offenses in the majors but need pitching depth and stability in the closer role. Clase is signed through 2028 on a team-friendly deal, so he won’t crush the payroll as the Cubs look to re-sign Kyle Tucker in the offseason/
The Guardians deal from their strength to add an MLB-ready outfielder in Alcantara and select a very Guardians-like prospect in Kilen, who hit .357 for the Vols with 15 home runs with excellent contact skills as a left-handed hitter. His arm likely pushes him to second in pro ball.
Pick: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UCSB
D-backs GM Passan: Before the beginning of the college season, Bremner and Arnold were the favorites for the No. 1 pick. Bremner shook off a tough start to the season and wound up with 111 strikeouts, 19 walks and 5 home runs allowed in 77⅔ innings. His changeup might be the best in the whole draft. This is tremendous value for a team with a starting rotation that could lose Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly this winter and is still reeling from Corbin Burnes’ season-ending Tommy John surgery.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: This is about as high as Bremner would go in real life, but I already think he’ll be a strong value for where he’s picked, likely in the 20s or early 30s, a year from now.
Pick: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Orioles GM McDaniel: The Golden Spikes Award winner somehow lasts until No. 19 and also happens to fit the Orioles’ style of taking up-the-middle defenders with big power. There’s a shot Aloy slides in real life, maybe even this far, because of the swing-and-miss concerns — both in zone and chasing out of the zone — but the compelling combination of 25-homer upside from a shortstop with SEC track record is too enticing to let him fall into the 20s.
Pick: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Wash.)
Brewers GM Schoenfield: The Brewers have shown the propensity to develop pitching, and recent first-round picks have focused on speedy, defense-first players such as Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and outfielder Braylon Payne (last year’s first-round selection). In Neyens, they get a different type of a prospect: a left-handed-hitting third baseman with perhaps as much raw power as any player in this draft.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: Now that the run of college hitters is almost over, this is the part of the draft when team prospect-type preference is very relevant. There are a few college bats with extreme profiles left (Laviolette, Bodine) not every team would take. There are a bunch of prep position players of all different types, with Neyens being the most extreme (poor contact rates over the summer, 70- or 80-grade power) so thus not a fit for every team. I would guess each team around here in real life will have a small group of two or three players to choose from that varies widely from what the next few teams will be considering.
Pick: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
Astros GM Passan: This is the point in the draft where the good teams happily use their first-round pick as a lottery ticket on someone whose stock has fallen. And nobody has cratered quite like LaViolette, who stands 6-foot-6 and 230 pounds and has spent the past two seasons in center field for the Aggies. LaViolette has huge raw power and a very good eye, but his .258 batting average alarmed enough teams to allow him to drop here, where the Astros — whose GM, Dana Brown, was a longtime scouting director who loved tooled-up prospects — gladly snap him up.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: This is quite realistic, both that Laviolette is the college hitter from this tier who slides and that Houston would be the team that takes him because of the Astros’ style and him being a semi-local player.
Pick: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Braves GM McDaniel: Pierce is rumored to land as high as the late top 10 but also might last until the 20s, so the hometown Braves get him after considering trading up a spot to land Laviolette.
Pierce can hit, run, defend and throw but isn’t showing a ton of power right now and will need some tweaks to his swing. That said, he has had some big showing this spring against 90-plus mph velocity, so scouts think there’s plenty of ability to turn into an everyday shortstop, maybe eventually like another former Brave and Atlanta-area prep standout, Dansby Swanson.
Pick: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
Royals GM Schoenfield: Don’t draft for need? That is the saying, but boy do the Royals need some help in the outfield. Conrad transferred from Marist to Wake Forest for 2025 after finishing second in the Cape Cod League in batting average last summer. He was off to a big start, hitting .372/.495/.744 before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery after 21 games. His hitting is more gap to gap, but that will work in Kauffman Stadium. Scouts would have liked to see him face better pitching in the ACC before he got hurt, but there is a projectable hit tool here.
Pick: Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana
Tigers GM Schoenfield: The Tigers have terrific organizational depth at the big league and minor league levels, so this pick could go in any direction. Taylor was a three-year standout for the Hoosiers, hitting .374/.494/.706 with 18 home runs and drawing 52 walks against just 30 strikeouts this season. He’s limited to corner outfield but possesses bat speed and strength and also performed well in the Cape last summer.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: I think Dave might be straying from the prep players who likely would go at these two picks in real life, but that just means the door is open for Jeff and I to scoop them up.
Pick: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Padres GM Passan: Whether Cunningham sticks at shortstop or winds up at second base, he has one of the best hit tools in the draft, and San Diego, as much as any team, loves players with great hit tools, from Luis Arraez to Jackson Merrill. Cunningham can run, too, and his well-rounded offensive profile makes up for a lack of physicality (5-foot-9, 170 pounds). His age, 19 on draft day, hurts him in teams’ models, but that’s also how a player of this caliber drops to the bottom of the first round.
Pick: Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Phillies GM McDaniel: And scoop, we did. There’s a number of similarly valued players here and, in real life, the signability would definitely come into play because saving 10% on slot to help set up my next pick would help me make this decision. Hammond, like Pierce above, could go about 10 picks higher than this and has a clear selling point: 70-grade power projection, a clear infield fit, upper-90s heat on the mound, sterling summer performance. He looks like Josh Donaldson, and the two-way narrative is similar to Austin Riley’s profile in high school. This is a solid value and also fits the Phillies’ drafting history.
27. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
Guardians GM Schoenfield: A draft-eligible sophomore, Stevenson has power and definite catching tools, including a plus arm, but had a somewhat disappointing season for the Tar Heels, hitting .254 albeit with 19 home runs. His 24% strikeout rate is a concern, but a lefty-hitting catcher with power could be a nice roll of the dice late in the first round.
28. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Sean Gamble, 2B/CF, IMG Academy (FL)
Royals GM Schoenfield: The Royals have shown no systematic preference in their recent draft history, with their seven first-round picks going back to Bobby Witt Jr. in 2019 including two high school position players, a high school pitcher, three college position players and one college pitcher. We gave them a college position player with pick No. 23, so let’s go high school with Gamble. An Iowa native who played four years at IMG, Gamble has excellent speed and a nice lefty stroke. Some scouts see him as an above-average second baseman, but he also played some center field, where his speed and arm could translate to a plus defender.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit High (OR)
D-backs GM Passan: Real original. Give the short guy to the Diamondbacks. Guilty as charged. But in the case of de Brun — like Corbin Carroll in 2019 and Slade Caldwell last year — Arizona isn’t afraid to spend high draft picks on undersized players. Listed at 5-foot-10, de Brun is a speedster who can also do damage in the batter’s box. He’s probably not going to be a superstar, but the same sort of false ceiling was put on another prep product from the Pacific Northwest, and Carroll is doing just fine, thank you very much.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: De Brun/Arizona is one of the most common connections and this particular pick, rather than their earlier pick, might be the most likely landing spot. Every scout likes de Brun, but some teams emphasize this particular skill set more than others. Arizona might be the top team in that group.
30. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Orioles GM McDaniel: Bodine and Luke Stevenson are seen as the two potential first-round catchers, with most scouts thinking Bodine goes ahead of Stevenson by about a dozen picks or so. With Stevenson going three picks earlier, grabbing Bodine here is nice value.
He stands out for his contact skills and framing, though scouts worry he isn’t a great traditional defender and doesn’t have standout power. Don’t worry about Adley Rutschman; Bodine will take a few years, and who knows what the big league team will look like then. Bet you didn’t think we’d be bad this year!
31. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
Orioles GM McDaniel: Kilby had a great combine workout and is in play at a number of spots in the late 20s and early 30s, including Baltimore at these picks. He’s probably not a long-term shortstop, but he is already growing into the power many projected to come a year ago, nobody questions his hit tool, and he’s one of the better athletic testers in the class. He’s a stealthy pick to click of mine (as a draft analyst), landing on a top-100 list within 12 months of this draft.
32. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
Brewers GM Schoenfield: Let’s just say Schoolcraft is a definite first-round name. Something must be in the water in Oregon — certainly, the success of the Oregon State and now Oregon programs has helped generate youth interest in the state — and Schoolcraft gives the state another potential first-rounder. He is 6-foot-8 and up to his 97 mph with his fastball, and he already does a nice job repeating his delivery. He’s also a two-way recruit to Tennessee as a first baseman, but it’s his arm that would get him drafted this high.
33. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Red Sox GM McDaniel: Fischer, to some teams, is just Ike Irish (who went No. 12) with less defensive value, as Irish is a catcher or right fielder and Fischer can play third but is likely a first baseman long term.
Both are advanced power-and-patience types who bat left-handed and stood out in the SEC for multiple seasons, though Irish is a slightly better pure hitter. Fischer is getting buzz all over the 20s and also likely won’t last this long on draft day.
34. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
Tigers GM Schoenfield: A year after Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith went No. 5 to the White Sox, Root is another Razorbacks lefty who could go reasonably high. His curveball and changeup are his best pitches and while he was nowhere near as dominant as Smith was last season, Root did strike out 126 in 99 innings despite a fastball that didn’t generate a ton of swing and miss.
Trade alert!
35. Arizona Diamondbacks, via trade with Mariners
Pick: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
D-backs (and Mariners) GM Passan: Finally, a landing spot for Eugenio Suarez — and all it took was a trade with … GM Passan.
The Mariners need a power bat and full-time third baseman, and they get him in exchange for the No. 35 pick. Cannarella entered the season a potential top-10 pick, but between a labrum injury in his right shoulder and a lack of home runs, he dipped toward a comp-round selection. Cool by Arizona. Cannarella is a no-doubt center fielder with immense range and as Druw Jones continues to struggle with the bat, Cannarella can be the glove-first option of Arizona’s future.
36. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
Twins GM Schoenfield: The Twins have chased velocity with their recent pitching selections, including Charlee Soto in 2023 and the since-traded Chase Petty in 2021. They were both high schoolers, but Quick fits the bill as a 6-foot-6 righty who sits 95-97 mph and tops out at 99, with three other potential plus pitches.
He had Tommy John surgery after one appearance in 2024 but returned quickly to throw 62 innings for the Crimson Tide, posting a 3.92 ERA with 70 strikeouts. He has pitched only 87 collegiate innings and will need to clean up some mechanics, but the stuff suggests potential as a No. 2 starter.
37. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
Rays GM McDaniel: Fauske offers a college-type profile (above-average hit, strong approach, plus power, long track record, limited defensive value) with the risk/reward of a high schooler. He has played catcher a bit in the past and will give average to above-average run times on good days, but you’re drafting a hitter who likely plays corner outfield long term.
There’s some interest in him in the 20s, and he should go around this pick, with the Rays being one of the teams on him the most. Prep righty Aaron Watson and prep shortstop Tate Southisene were the two other players in contention for these last few picks who ultimately didn’t get taken but likely will not last until the second round in real life.
Pick: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
Mets GM McDaniel: I didn’t need the combine to confirm that Young (related to Dmitri and Delmon) had 80-grade power potential, but he did hit a ball 115.4 mph plus five more harder than 110 mph and four farther than 420 feet. His summer contact rate was awful because of big, loud hitting mechanics, but the year before that he had a shorter swing, and he’s the kind of athlete and hitter with are so outrageous that you want to believe he can just make any adjustment. That was also the argument for Jac Caglianone at this time last year. On top of that, Young plays a decent shortstop and can slide over to third long term. There’s a shot, maybe 1-in-5, that he turns tools supernova on the level of Elly De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr. who figures it out to become a standout big leaguer. There’s also a chance he doesn’t get out of Single-A, but at this juncture of the draft, that’s a gamble I’ll take — and it sounds like a few other teams would as well.
Pick: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
Yankees GM McDaniel: Oliveto isn’t the next player on my big board, but I wanted to finish my picks with some vibes. Oliveto is a local pick who played high school ball on Long Island and a late riser. Nobody in baseball knew his name until a standout event last fall, but he ended up choosing Yale over some blue-blood programs.
He didn’t face much top-end competition this spring, but a handful of teams saw a pretty swing with 65-grade power, which Oliveto put on display at the combine. He’s now in the mix to go around this pick, but I’m guessing he’ll go in the second round, about 15 or so picks later.
Like Ike Irish, he’s on the catcher/right fielder spectrum, but Oliveto requires some faith because of his few reps against pro-level arms, though everything suggests he can do it. Who was the last lefty-hitting high schooler from a cold weather state with that sort of profile who went around here in the draft? Jackson Merrill.
Pick: Jack Bauer, SP, Lincoln-Way East HS (IL)
Dodgers GM Passan: Los Angeles never shies away from projects, and Bauer is the draft’s most high-variance arm. The left-hander throws up to 103 mph, and as much as teams believe they can teach velocity, nobody can teach 103. If Bauer can figure out how to harness his fastball and cleans up some of his control issues, the Dodgers have a true No. 1 starter in the making.
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Eli Lederman
The most active month of the 2026 recruiting cycle is drawing to a close. How did things shake out on the recruiting trail among the nation’s top college football programs this June?
Headlined by five-star commitments, Florida, Texas and Texas A&M led the charge among the nation’s recruiting risers. Defensive end JaReylan McCoy (No. 9 in the 2026 ESPN 300) gives the Gators a big boost. For the Longhorns and Aggies, commits Richard Wesley (No. 11) and Brandon Arrington (No. 15) land as respective defensive anchors for the Texas rivals in the 2026 class.
Who whiffed on the month of June? Auburn, Oregon and Penn State took tumbles over the past 30 days through key decommitments and misses on some of the most coveted prospects in the 2026 ESPN 300. Meanwhile, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State stand among the prominent football powers poised to rise in July after quiet June windows.
With 33 of the nation’s top 100 prospects still uncommitted, many of the biggest dominoes within the 2026 class are still to fall. As the cycle shifts from late spring’s official visit season into the commitment-heavy waters of July, we dive into June’s recruiting winners, what’s next for the teams that missed big and the programs most likely to climb over the next month.
Jump to a section:
Big winners | Teams with questions | Who could rise
June’s biggest recruiting winners
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 2
The Aggies’ recruiting heater peaked with the June 19 commitment of five-star athlete Brandon Arrington, who chose Texas A&M over Oregon and sealed the highest-ranked pledge of the Mike Elko era in College Station. Beating Texas to No. 5 overall running back K.J. Edwards two days earlier marked a signature in-state victory, too. Between Edwards and fellow in-state rusher Jonathan Hatton Jr., the Aggies will close the month with the 2026 cycle’s top-ranked running back tandem. Commitments from three more top-300 recruits in June — cornerback Camren Hamiel, offensive tackle Samuel Roseborough and defensive end Tristian Givens — leave Texas A&M level with Georgia for the third-most ESPN 300 pledges nationally entering July.
Through the additions of Edwards and Hatton, along with the late-cycle pledge of five-star offensive tackle Lamont Rogers in the 2025 class, Elko has shown himself capable of winning high-level recruiting battles in the state of Texas. But the Aggies’ message is carrying nationally as well. Of the 10 pledges Texas A&M landed in June, five came from out of state, including four of the five ESPN 300 commits now anchoring the nation’s second-ranked class, and the Aggies aren’t done yet. No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown, who is set to commit July 10, is among the program’s priority targets for the new month.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 14
After surging only in the final months of the 2025 cycle, the Gators used June to get the ball rolling much earlier on the program’s 2026 class. Of the eight ESPN prospects committed to Florida, seven have landed with the Gators over the past 30 days. That group of newcomers is headlined by five-star defensive end JaReylan McCoy, who stiff-armed LSU and Texas for Florida and would be the Gators’ highest-ranked defensive signee since 2015.
Florida built out the early core of its skill position class in June with four-star running back pledge Carsyn Baker and pass catchers Marquez Daniel and Justin Williams. Five-star tight end Kaiden Prothro, a heavy Georgia lean, could join that group when he picks among the Bulldogs, Gators and Texas on July 12. In the June arrivals of safety commit Kaiden Hall and Nebraska cornerback flip C.J. Bronaugh, Florida has at least two more ESPN 300 defensive back talents on the way after landing top-100 prospects J’Vari Flowers, Hylton Stubbs and Lagonza Hayward Jr. in the 2025 class.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 3
A slow start in the 2026 cycle gave way to an explosive spring for Notre Dame, highlighted by 11 ESPN 300 pledges since April 1. As things stand, Marcus Freeman and the reigning national runner-up Irish are on track to sign a historic class later this year.
Three ESPN commitments over the past 30 days made June a high-quality, low-volume month for Notre Dame. The Irish beat out Michigan, Oregon and Penn State for No. 2 overall cornerback Khary Adams on June 20, then edged the Ducks, Nittany Lions and Clemson for safety Joey O’Brien hours later, forming the foundation of the program’s 2026 defensive back class, which also includes top-200 safety Ayden Pouncey. Adams, No. 28 overall, is Notre Dame’s top-ranked commit in the cycle following the latest update to the 2026 ESPN 300.
No. 5 overall tight end Ian Premer‘s commitment marked the latest bit of recruiting momentum in South Bend. If Premer signs later this year, he’ll be the program’s highest-ranked tight end addition since Cane Berrong in the 2021 cycle, and Notre Dame likely isn’t done adding pass catchers, with wide receivers Kaydon Finley, Devin Fitzgerald and Brayden Robinson set to announce commitments later this week.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 7
The Longhorns landed their first-ever No. 1 class in the ESPN recruiting rankings era (since 2006) last cycle, and coach Steve Sarkisian & Co. have set themselves up to contend for another in 2026 with a productive month of June of recruiting along the defensive line.
Texas’ top-ranked 2025 class included four defensive linemen, headlined by five-star Justus Terry. But the flood of talent out of the Longhorns’ defensive line room this offseason meant the team needed to continue adding at the position for 2026. With the June additions of Corey Wells, Dylan Berymon and Vodney Cleveland, Texas holds more top-20 defensive tackle pledges than any program nationally. In the June 22 commitment of five-star pass rusher Richard Wesley, No. 11 in the 2026 ESPN 300, the Longhorns landed an impact playmaker on the edge and headliner for the program’s incoming defensive line class.
Well stocked on the defensive line, the rest of Texas’ 2026 cycle will be defined by the program’s success elsewhere in the coming month. Five-star targets Tyler Atkinson and Felix Ojo have the potential to supercharge the Longhorns’ 2026 class. Additions of top 100 prospects John Turntine III, Trenton Henderson and Jamarion Carlton could be in the cards, too.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 10
The Seminoles entered June with seven total pledges and only three from the 2026 ESPN 300. As of Monday, Florida State’s incoming class sits in a much healthier spot with 12 commits since June 1, providing coach Mike Norvell and his new-look staff a potential springboard toward a stronger finish later this year.
Quarterback recruiting has long been a sticking point throughout Norvell’s tenure, and Florida State appeared headed for another unnerving cycle at the position until four-star passer Jaden O’Neal committed June 22. The former Oklahoma pledge is ESPN’s No. 7 pocket passer in 2026, and considering the Seminoles’ thin quarterback depth beyond the 2025 season, O’Neal — a polished passer with one of the stronger arms in the class — will join the program next year with a pathway to early reps.
Elsewhere, Florida State is molding a formidable pass-catching class around O’Neal. Former Texas A&M pledge Xavier Tiller, ESPN’s No. 6 overall tight end, became the Seminoles’ top-ranked commit June 23. Auburn wide receiver Devin Carter flipped hours later, landing as the No. 1 wide receiver in a class that also includes June commits Brandon Bennett and Jasen Lopez. Florida State has bolstered its defense too, adding cornerback Lawrence Timmons and defensive end James Carrington over the past two weeks, with more to come in the summer months.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 1
The Trojans shot out to the hottest start of any program in the 2026 cycle, spurred on by the January arrival of general manager Chad Bowden. After beating UCLA to sixth-ranked outside linebacker Talanoa Ili, outmuscling Ohio State and Penn State for pass rusher Luke Wafle and landing safety Peyton Dyer in the past month, USC leads the nation with 17 ESPN 300 commitments.
Just as important: The Trojans have, so far, held on to all of their biggest names this time around. USC’s dip in the 2025 cycle began with the decommitments of eventual five-stars Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson last June before the Trojans lost a series of high-profile commits in the fall.
To date, Xavier Griffin‘s late-May exit is USC’s only significant departure this spring. That’s good news for coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, who could add another elite player to the program’s 2026 class when four-star wide receiver Ethan Feaster commits Friday.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 12
Second-year Bruins coach DeShaun Foster is proving to be the recruiter he was expected to become when he replaced Chip Kelly at UCLA, and offseason staff additions of offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri and offensive line coach Andy Kwon are helping boost the program’s presence on the recruiting trail.
In June, the Bruins added 14 total commitments. None was more significant than the June 7 pledge of offensive tackle Micah Smith, No. 46 in the 2026 ESPN 300. The top-ranked commit of the Foster era, Smith would arrive as UCLA’s highest-rated offensive line addition since Xavier Su’a-Filo in the 2009 cycle. Paired with fellow ESPN 300 offensive tackle pledge Johnnie Jones, who committed June 9, the Bruins have the makings of a historic offensive line class after UCLA finished 107th in sacks allowed in 2024. Four-star passer Oscar Rios‘ commitment to Arizona over the Bruins on Friday was a miss, but is expected to remain a player in what remains of the 2026 quarterback market between now and the early signing period.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 21
Are Kalani Sitake and the Cougars on their way to landing the best recruiting class in program history? That’s the trajectory BYU finds itself on this summer following an 11-win finish in 2024.
The Cougars’ fifth and final commit of June was easily the most significant. In beating Oregon and USC for four-star passer Ryder Lyons, No. 49 in the 2026 ESPN 300, BYU landed its highest-ranked quarterback pledge since 2002 and a class cornerstone last Tuesday. Lyons is the nation’s fifth-ranked overall passer in the cycle. And though he won’t enroll until 2027 because he will be serving on a Latter-day Saints mission after high school, he could feature as soon as his freshman season without an underclassman in the program’s current quarterback room.
With Lyons’ commitment, he joins springtime ESPN 300 pledges Brock Harris and Bott Mulitalo — Utah’s No. 1 and No. 3 recruits in 2026, respectively — in BYU’s incoming class. If all three sign later this year, it will mark the first time the Cougars have landed three top-300 prospects in a single cycle in the ESPN recruiting rankings era.
Current ESPN class ranking: N/A
With only two ESPN 300 pledges in 2026, the Sooners still have plenty of work to do between now and the early signing period. However, Oklahoma avoided disaster at the quarterback position June 20 when No. 5 dual-threat passer Bowe Bentley committed to the program, sealing a major recruiting win for coach Brent Venables and first-year offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle.
Bentley’s pledge marked the end of a recruiting tightrope walk for the Sooners. Oklahoma had appeared settled with its 2026 quarterback after Jaden O’Neal’s commitment last June. But upon Arbuckle’s arrival in December, the program swiftly shifted its focus to an all-out pursuit of Bentley this spring, a move that alienated O’Neal and exposed the Sooners to the risk of missing out on both ESPN 300 passers this summer. That possibility hung in the balance as Bentley took visits to both Oklahoma and LSU earlier this month, but the Sooners remained confident throughout Bentley’s process before securing the pledge of ESPN’s No. 168 recruit.
Oklahoma can now turn its attention to the rest of the 2026 class, working to flip the downward trend for a program that has fallen in ESPN’s class rankings each year since the Sooners locked down the nation’s No. 4 class in 2023.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 19
It has been at least 10 years since the Bears signed an offensive lineman of the caliber of top-ranked guard Tommy Tofi. That’s why the Bay Area lineman’s June 3 decision to commit to the Bears over Oregon marked such a significant recruiting upset for Cal. The Ducks aren’t going away in Tofi’s recruitment. But if the Bears can hold on to the 6-foot-4, 340-pound blocker, it will mark a statement addition for coach Justin Wilcox, only one cycle removed from securing ESPN 300 guard Justin Hasenhuetl and quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Tofi is one of 15 prospects who landed in Cal’s incoming class over the past month. The Bears appear set to keep their quarterback pipeline going with three-star Brady Palmer, ESPN’s No. 25 pocket passer, and he’ll arrive with a slew of recently committed pass catchers in wide receivers Tyree Sams and E.J. Morgan and tight ends Taimane Purcell and Luca Wolf, all out of the state of California. June offensive line pledges Kamo’i Huihui-White, Koloi Keli and Esiah Wong join Tofi as part of Cal’s ongoing efforts to bulk up on the line of scrimmage in the ACC.
What’s next for teams that whiffed in June
The Tigers’ past month of recruiting was defined as much by the prospects they missed on as it was the recruits who left coach Hugh Freeze’s 2026 class over the past 30 days.
Freeze and his staff fell short on a pair of running backs last week between top in-state running back Ezavier Crowell (Alabama pledge) and four-star Jae Lamar (Georgia). And the Tigers now appear to be on the outside looking in for other top targets, including five-stars Immanuel Iheanacho and Kaiden Prothro and top-50 in-state wide receiver Cederian Morgan. But the June departures of top-200 linebacker pledges JaMichael Garrett (decommit) and Shadarius Toodle (Georgia flip) sting heavily, as does four-star wide receiver Devin Carter’s flip to Florida State on June 23.
Auburn’s flip of four-star Penn State quarterback pledge Peyton Falzone last Thursday was a key win and signaled a concession in the program’s battle with South Carolina for dual-threat passer Landon Duckworth, who visited the Tigers earlier this month. Top-150 inside linebacker target Adam Balogoun-Ali visited Auburn in May and would represent a strong replacement for Toodle. No. 5 defensive end Nolan Wilson, No. 53 overall, is another major defensive target.
The Ducks went big to pull five-stars Dakorien Moore, Na’eem Offord and Trey McNutt away from more traditional recruiting powers in 2025. The 2026 class has seen the program take a more conservative approach on the high school trail, which showed up across key battles in June as Oregon finished second for a series of long-term term targets, including Brandon Arrington (Texas A&M), Ryder Lyons (BYU) and Notre Dame pledges Khary Adams and Joey O’Brien.
Will things play out similarly for the Ducks in July?
Oregon did register a few big recruiting wins in June, led by commitments from No. 1 overall safety Jett Washington, four-star pass catcher Messiah Hampton and quarterback Bryson Beaver, a late riser in the 2026 class. Coach Dan Lanning & Co. will hope that part of the trend can continue as the Ducks keep working Iheanacho, No. 13 in the ESPN 300, and Cal commit Tommy Tofi. Oregon is also expected to remain in serious contention for a trio of top-30 prospects as wide receiver Calvin Russell and linebackers Tyler Atkinson and Anthony Jones make decisions later this summer.
The Nittany Lions registered a number of early wins in the 2026 cycle, and James Franklin’s incoming class remains in the top 10 of ESPN’s latest rankings. However, Penn State went relatively quiet in June, adding offensive guard Benjamin Eziuka as its lone ESPN 300 addition since June 1 while top targets including Arrington, Adams and O’Brien and USC pledge Luke Wafle landed elsewhere before Falzone, ESPN’s No. 7 dual-threat quarterback, flipped to Auburn.
Among the positive signals for the Nittany Lions moving forward is the progress the program made with Iheanacho on his official visit earlier this month. ESPN’s No. 2 offensive tackle told ESPN that Penn State “felt like home” following the mid-June trip, and the program’s relative proximity to Iheanacho’s family in Maryland could give the Nittany Lions an edge in a battle with LSU and Oregon. Top-100 defensive end Carter Meadows is another priority target.
Misses on ESPN 300 cornerback Camren Hamiel (Texas A&M) and Michigan pledges Zion Robinson and Titan Davis, paired with the flip of No. 1 commit C.J. Bronaugh (Florida), lowlighted a challenging June for the Huskers. Nebraska’s fading grip on the recruitment of top-100 rusher Brian Bonner Jr. in a battle with UCLA and Washington doesn’t help matters, either.
However, coach Matt Rhule and the Huskers recovered from Bronaugh’s flip on June 23 with a commitment from ESPN 300 cornerback Danny Odem, and the flip last Friday of four-star Arizona State wide receiver pledge Nalin Scott marked another win. Up ahead, top-300 offensive tackle Kelvin Obot looms as an important target, both for what the 6-5, 270-pound lineman can bring Nebraska and the momentum he could kick off for the Huskers. Obot narrowed his finalists to Michigan, Nebraska, Oregon and Utah in May and visited the Huskers in early June.
Tennessee lost a pledge from three-star Miami wide receiver flip Tyran Evans in June. More critically, the Vols have gone quiet this month, going without a single ESPN 300 addition while top targets including athlete Sequel Patterson and defensive end Tristian Givens committed elsewhere.
The good news for the Vols? There’s plenty of dominos still to fall in Knoxville over the coming weeks. Tennessee remains heavily alongside Texas A&M in flip efforts for five-star LSU wide receiver pledge Tristen Keys. The Vols are serious players for No. 2 running back Savion Hiter and top-100 prospects Joel Wyatt and Darius Gray, while four-star defenders Dereon Albert and T.J. White have Tennessee among their top finalists ahead of their upcoming commitments.
Teams poised to rise in July
It wasn’t quite the furious stretch of June recruiting the Crimson Tide unleashed in the 2025 class, but Alabama was active this month, adding top-150 prospects Xavier Griffin, Ezavier Crowell, Sam Utu and Mack Sutter and flipping Iowa State quarterback pledge Jett Thomalla. For now, coach Kalen DeBoer’s incoming class is still waiting to crack ESPN’s top 25 for 2026, but the Crimson Tide aren’t expected to stay on the outside looking in much longer.
Crowell, No. 31 in the 2026 ESPN 300, was the first to commit among a trio of top in-state targets who visited Alabama on the final weekend before the recruiting dead period. The Crimson Tide will hope to maintain the local momentum when four-star wide receiver Cederian Morgan announces his pledge July 2, while No. 2 outside linebacker prospect Anthony Jones of Mobile, Alabama, also could land in DeBoer’s class over the next month.
Newly minted five-star safety Jireh Edwards is another priority target for the Crimson Tide in a battle with Auburn, Oregon and Texas A&M for ESPN’s No. 23 overall recruit. Set to commit Saturday, Edwards could soon join top-10 cornerbacks Jorden Edmonds and Zyan Gibson in the type of defensive class that might vault Alabama to another top-five finish in 2026.
With the additions of eight ESPN 300 prospects, led by top-50 recruits Justice Fitzpatrick and Ekene Ogboko, the Bulldogs have a case to be among June’s biggest recruiting winners. However, Georgia’s fourth-ranked 2026 class might only get better with top targets set to commit.
Four-star defensive tackle Pierre Dean Jr. could become coach Kirby Smart’s next addition as ESPN’s No. 106 overall recruit prepares to choose between Georgia and South Carolina on Monday. July 12 marks another critical day for the Bulldogs with five-stars Derrek Cooper and Kaiden Prothro set to make their decisions. Cooper, ESPN’s No. 1 running back, is down to Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Texas, while Prothro — the versatile, in-state tight end — looks especially likely to land with the Bulldogs over Florida and Texas.
While Georgia contends with Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee for No. 2 rusher Savion Hiter, top-ranked linebacker Tyler Atkinson, who is No. 14 overall, looms as another major in-state domino.
No program has hosted Atkinson more than Georgia, and the Bulldogs had long been seen as front-runners in his recruitment before Ohio State, Oregon and Texas began making up ground this spring. Any combination of Cooper, Atkinson and Prothro, alongside five-star quarterback pledge Jared Curtis, should have Georgia headed for a 10th straight top-three class.
The Tigers’ lone June addition came from former Mississippi State offensive tackle pledge Emanuel Tucker. But the most important piece of news for coach Brian Kelly is that LSU closes the month with five-star wide receiver Tristen Keys still committed to the program’s 2026 class despite ongoing flip efforts from Miami, Tennessee and Texas A&M.
Hanging on to Keys is a priority. So is the recruitment of No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown, the coveted defensive tackle who attends high school on the Tigers’ campus at University Laboratory School. LSU remains the favorite to secure Brown’s pledge July 10, but his long-standing relationships at Texas A&M and fresher connections at Miami will test the ability of Kelly and his staff to keep the nation’s top recruit home in Baton Rouge.
LSU remains in the mix for four-star wide receiver Calvin Russell with Florida State, Miami, Michigan and Oregon also chasing ESPN’s No. 4 wide receiver ahead of his Saturday commitment. Top-100 recruits Chauncey Kennon, Trenton Henderson and Darius Gray stand among the other prominent targets the Tigers will be hovering over in the coming weeks and months.
The Buckeyes took care of most of their business earlier this spring before landing in-state ESPN 300 prospects Cincere Johnson and Favour Akih along with defensive end Khary Wilder out of California this month. What’s next for the nation’s fifth-ranked recruiting class?
Ohio State is working hard to pair Akih, ESPN’s No. 16 running back recruit, with an elite rusher after the Buckeyes hosted Cooper and Hiter — the nation’s top two backfield prospects — last month. Five-star offensive tackle Felix Ojo told ESPN that Ohio State and Texas have pulled ahead in his recruitment with an expected commitment sometime in July. The Buckeyes remain front-runners for top-40 defenders Bralan Womack and Deuce Geralds. Three-star quarterback Luke Fahey looks likely to join Ohio State’s latest star-studded class Thursday after ESPN’s No. 28 pocket passer closed the June official visit period with a trip to Columbus.
No. 3 athlete Sequel Patterson and four-star defensive end Aiden Harris are the program’s most recent ESPN 300 additions, and South Carolina appears prepared to add more in July.
Dual-threat quarterback Landon Duckworth, who previously spent 10 months in the Gamecocks’ 2026 class, has maintained his relationships with the staff, and ESPN’s No. 178 overall prospect has been trending toward a fresh commitment to the program in recent weeks. Auburn’s move to flip four-star passer Peyton Falzone only reinforces Duckworth’s expected decision.
Dean, ESPN’s No. 8 defensive tackle, could land with South Carolina on Monday, and the Gamecocks remain top contenders for top-150 prospects Samari Matthews and Somourian Wingo as well. South Carolina has long led in the recruitment of four-star offensive lineman Darius Gray, who could help supercharge coach Shane Beamer’s next class this summer if he ultimately picks the Gamecocks over the likes of Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Georgia.
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