This penultimate ranking could arguably be the most compelling, revealing regular-season College Football Playoff top 25.
Period.
If there is one upset in this weekend’s conference championship games — most realistically if TCU loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship or USC loses to Utah in the Pac-12 title game — it would open the door to controversy, allowing one-loss Ohio State and two-loss Alabama back into the conversation. The scenario in which both TCU and USC lose lends further credence to the possibility, which is why how far Ohio State falls is the biggest question for the committee. If the Buckeyes are at No. 5, they still have a chance to finish in the top four with some help. If the committee drops them below Alabama, their position becomes far more precarious.
Ohio State is already hanging by a thread after it was beaten soundly at home by a Michigan team playing without injured star running back, Blake Corum. Alabama, which has been an afterthought in the playoff race, on Tuesday could be ranked ahead of both teams it lost to — three-loss LSU and two-loss Tennessee.
Alabama and Ohio State’s résumés are complete. So who the committee deems better Tuesday night would seem to have an edge on Selection Day — if there’s an opening. A TCU loss wouldn’t rule the Frogs out, but they would be lumped in with Ohio State and Alabama as teams that didn’t win their conference. A USC loss would be harder for the committee to justify because the Trojans would have lost twice to Utah, creating doubt within the room that they are “unequivocally” one of the four best teams. A three-loss K-State isn’t getting in. A three-loss Utah isn’t getting in.
(Re)-enter Ohio State and Alabama.
According to ESPN’s strength of record metric, Ohio State’s résumé is significantly better than Alabama’s. The average top 25 team would have a 20% chance of going 11-1 or better against the Buckeyes’ schedule and a 29% chance of going 10-2 or better against the Crimson Tide’s schedule. The committee would also consider that the Buckeyes’ loss was to the No. 3-ranked team.
Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren said his conference should “without a doubt” have two teams in the playoff. Alabama coach Nick Saban advocated for his team after its Iron Bowl win, saying, “We’ve lost two games to top-10 opponents, both on the last play of the game and both on the road. We could have easily won both games but didn’t.”
Which is why the Tide still needs help, as does with Ohio State. In addition to determining who’s in the bubble this week, the committee could also consider making a change at the top. Here are three other things to watch Tuesday night (7 ET on ESPN) when the group reveals its fifth of six rankings:
Who’s No. 1?
Both Michigan and Georgia could make a case for the top spot Tuesday night, and while the order could flip now or next week, it ultimately will be significant for seeding purposes. The No. 1 team faces the No. 4 team in one semifinal and the selection committee is careful to avoid putting the top team at a geographic disadvantage. Michigan owns the best win in the country, against the committee’s No. 2 team. The committee does not try to avoid rematches in the semifinals, so it’s possible Michigan could wind up at No. 1 on Selection Day and Ohio State could be No. 4.
The Wolverines outscored Ohio State 28-3 in the second half Saturday. They also have a top 25 win against No. 11 Penn State, and are No. 2 in the country in strength of record. Georgia, though, is close behind them at No. 5, with its best wins against Tennessee, Oregon and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have looked sluggish recently in the first half, though, scoring just 10 points against Georgia Tech and 9 the previous week in a 16-6 win at Kentucky. The committee has said in recent weeks that Georgia separated itself from the rest of the country as its No. 1 team. Is that still the case?
Can USC jump TCU?
The easiest move for the committee would be to bump undefeated TCU up to No. 3 following Ohio State’s loss, but USC’s back-to-back wins against ranked opponents UCLA and Notre Dame could give them a bigger boost. Including the Trojans’ Sept. 24 win at Oregon State — the team that just eliminated rival Oregon from the Pac-12 title game — USC has three wins against teams currently ranked in the CFP top 25. No other school has more than two wins against current top 25 opponents.
Which Group of 5 team leads for a New Year’s Six bowl bid?
The highest ranked conference champion from a Group of 5 league is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, and that likely will be decided at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday when No. 19 Tulane hosts No. 22 UCF in the American Athletic Conference championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has a 59% chance of winning. No. 24 Cincinnati should fall out of the rankings this week following its 27-24 loss to Tulane on Friday. It’s also worth keeping an eye on 10-2 UTSA, which is currently unranked by the committee, but will face North Texas in the Conference USA title game Friday. According to ESPN Analytics, UTSA has a 74% chance of winning.
CHICAGO — Kyle Tucker had the fans on their feet, roaring and pumping their fists as he rounded the bases after hitting the go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth inning. His screaming line drive cleared the right-field wall with plenty of room to spare.
The Chicago Cubs went from giving up 10 runs in the eighth to scoring six in the bottom half and beating the Arizona Diamondbacks 13-11 on Friday in one of the wildest games on record.
The two teams combined for 21 runs in the seventh and eighth innings, with the Cubs scoring 11 runs and the D-backs plating 10. It was the first nine-inning game in MLB history in which both teams scored 10 or more runs from the seventh inning on, and the third game overall, according to ESPN Research.
“That’s kind of baseball,” Tucker said. “There’s a lot of ups and downs in this game, especially with how many games we play.”
There haven’t been many games like this, though.
The Cubs are just the seventh team in at least the past 125 seasons to allow 10 or more runs in an inning and win. They are also the fifth team to give up 10 or more runs and score six or more in the same inning.
The 16 combined runs in the eighth were the most in an inning at Wrigley Field, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
“If you’ve seen that one, you’ve been around for a while,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said with a laugh. “It was crazy. You know, we gave up 10 runs in an inning and we won. So it was a wild game, but we kept going, and, you know, there’s 27 outs in a game and this kind of proves it, and you’re just happy to get out with a win.”
On a warm day with the ball carrying, Carson Kelly homered twice. Ian Happ belted a grand slam and Seiya Suzuki went deep, helping the Cubs open a weekend series on a winning note.
“You’ve seen it early — having some tough losses, coming back winning the next day,” Happ said. “Losing the first game of the series, winning the series. Little things like that. Today’s a great example of professional hitters going out there and continuing to have really good at-bats.”
The way things transpired in the final two innings was something to see.
Kelly hit a two-run homer in the second against Corbin Burnes, and Happ came through with his grand slam against Ryne Nelson as part of a five-run seventh. But just when it looked as if the Cubs were in control with a 7-1 lead, things took a wild turn in the eighth.
The crowd of more than 39,000 let the Cubs hear it, but their team regrouped in the bottom half. Bryce Jarvis hit Nico Hoerner leading off and walked Pete Crow-Armstrong before Kelly drove a three-run homer to center. Tucker, the Cubs’ prized offseason addition, came through after Happ singled with one out. Suzuki followed with his drive against Joe Mantiply to give the Cubs a 13-11 lead.
Arizona, which had won five straight, became just the third team over the past 50 seasons to lose a game in which it had a 10-run inning at any point, according to ESPN Research.
“You just got to stay locked in,” Kelly said. “Obviously, you don’t want to … give up 10 in an inning. Obviously, you don’t want to do that. I think the biggest thing is coming back, regrouping and continuing to fight.”
Major League Baseball suspended New York Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. for one game and fined him an undisclosed amount, the result of his actions during Thursday night’s win against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Chisholm was ejected in the seventh inning by plate umpire John Bacon for arguing after a called third strike on a full-count pitch from Mason Montgomery that appeared low.
Minutes later, he posted on his X account, “Not even f—ing close!!!!!” then deleted the post.
“I didn’t think before I had anything that I said was ejectable but after probably,” Chisholm said after the game. “I’m a competitor, so when I go out there and I feel like I’m right and you’re saying something to me that I think doesn’t make sense, I’m going to get fired up and be upset.
“I lost my emotions. I lost my cool. I got to be better than that. … I’m definitely mad at myself for losing my cool.”
Michael Hill, the league’s senior vice president for on-field operations, said Friday’s discipline was for Chisholm’s “conduct, including his violation of Major League Baseball’s Social Media Policy for Major League Players.”
MLB regulations ban the use of electronic devices during games. The social media policy prohibits “displaying or transmitting content that questions the impartiality of or otherwise denigrates a major league umpire.”
Chisholm did appeal the decision, allowing him to play in Friday night’s 1-0 win against the Rays. He started at second base and went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
Manager Dave Roberts said before the Dodgers’ series opener Friday night against the Rangers that Ohtani was with his wife and going on MLB’s paternity list.
“He and Mamiko are expecting at some point. That’s all I know,” Roberts said. “I don’t know when he’s going to come back and I don’t know when they’re going to have the baby, but obviously they’re together in anticipation.”
The 30-year-old Ohtani posted on his Instagram account in late December that he and his 28-year-old wife, a former professional basketball player from his native Japan, were expecting a baby in 2025.
“Can’t wait for the little rookie to join our family soon!” said the Dec. 28 post that included a photo showing the couple’s beloved dog, Decoy, as well as a pink ruffled onesie along with baby shoes and a sonogram that was covered by a baby emoji.
Ohtani can miss up to three games while on paternity leave. The Dodgers have a three-game series in Texas before an off day Monday, then play the Cubs in Chicago on Tuesday.