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Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we’re still awaiting the first big splash.

While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.

Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?

We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who’s likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.

Here’s how they voted — and what they had to say about their picks.


Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?

Yes: 7
No: 4
New York Yankees: 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3
San Francisco Giants: 2

Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he’ll get. Either way, he’ll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.

“He gambled and showed up, but I’m going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast,” one voter said of the California native. “Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me.”


Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?

Trea Turner: 7
Carlos Correa: 5

There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.

“I think his [Turner’s] skill set ages the best,” one voter said. “Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn’t slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner’s athleticism any day.”


Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?

Turner: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Dodgers 4, Giants 2
Correa: Yankees 4, Minnesota Twins 3, Giants 3, Chicago Cubs 1, Boston Red Sox 1
Dansby Swanson: Atlanta Braves 6, Cubs 2, Dodgers 2, Giants 2
Xander Bogaerts: Red Sox 4, Giants 4, Dodgers 2, Yankees 1, Cubs 1

Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco’s public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there’s no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason’s shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.

“Dave Dombrowski isn’t going to sit on his hands,” said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. “His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don’t get one of them.”

“I just think if the Giants don’t get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?,” another voter responded.” If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one.”


Yes: 4
No: 8

The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn’t do something else soon after losing him.

“I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they’ll move to quickly replace him,” a voter said.


Yes: 9
No: 3

On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.

“Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu],” one executive said.


Which top pitcher after Verlander and deGrom will provide the most value: Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker or Chris Bassitt?

Bassitt: 5
Rodon: 5
Senga: 2

The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt’s ERA has been higher than Rodon’s in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.

“I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value,” one voter said.

“It’s really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet,” another voter said.

Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?

Giants: 3
Phillies: 2
Texas Rangers: 2
Dodgers: 2
Red Sox: 1
Yankees: 1
Cubs: 1

The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series — and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.

“I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season,” one voter opined, “but I don’t see why they won’t again. Bruce Bochy didn’t unretire to sit at home in October. This year they’ll add pitching. You can count on that.”


Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?

Sean Murphy: 3
Pablo Lopez: 3
Lucas Giolito: 2
Bryan Reynolds: 2
Corbin Burnes: 2
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1
Kolten Wong: 1

Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn’t explain his choice — but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.

“Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board,” one evaluator said. “With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul.”


How much do MLB’s 2023 rule changes impact your offseason’s decision-making: a lot, some or not at all?

Not at all: 6
Some: 4
A lot: 0

Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager’s meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don’t have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.

“Obviously, you can’t hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don’t know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes — both behind the plate and on the bases,” one voter said. “I don’t think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term.”

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2025 World Series: Live updates and analysis from Game 3

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2025 World Series: Live updates and analysis from Game 3

After a split north of the border, the 2025 World Series is headed to Hollywood.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays each won a game in Canada. Now, a pivotal Game 3 — with a marquee pitching match between a future Hall of Famer and yet another L.A. ace — will determine who has the advantage moving forward.

We’re posting live analysis all game long — and will add our takeaways after the final pitch.

Key links: World Series schedule, results

Live analysis

Gamecast: Follow the action pitch-by-pitch here

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Kay’s ex-wife: Saw pills passed on Angels’ plane

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Kay's ex-wife: Saw pills passed on Angels' plane

SANTA ANA, Calif. — The ex-wife of former Los Angeles Angels communications employee Eric Kay testified Monday that the organization was aware of his drug abuse multiple times before Kay supplied the drugs that killed Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs in 2019.

Camela Kay testified in the wrongful death civil suit that she witnessed team employees and players distributing nonprescription drugs to each other, including once on a team plane where she described opioid pills being handed out. Her testimony was repeatedly interrupted with objections by team attorneys.

Camela Kay’s testimony contradicted that of the first two witnesses of the trial — Eric Kay’s ex-boss Tim Mead, the former director of communications, and Angels traveling secretary Tom Taylor. Mead and Taylor both testified they were not aware of Kay’s drug use and whether he was providing drugs to players until after Skaggs’ accidental overdose death in a Texas hotel room in 2019.

Eric Kay was convicted in 2022 of giving a fentanyl-laced pill to Skaggs that led to his death. Kay is serving a 22-year federal prison sentence.

The Skaggs family is seeking $118 million and possible additional damages, claiming the team violated its rules requiring intervention, including potential dismissal, of any employee known to be abusing drugs. The family asserts that allowing Kay to interact with Skaggs, when both had addiction problems, set the conditions for disaster.

Plaintiff’s attorney Shawn Holley said in her opening statement last week that the Angels put Skaggs “directly in harm’s way” by continuing to employ Eric Kay.

Camela Kay testified that, after an attempted intervention Oct. 1, 2017, when the couple was still married, Mead and Taylor came to the Kay home. She said Mead returned the next day to check on Kay. During that time, she testified, Mead came out of the Kay bedroom holding “six or seven” baggies of about six white pills each. Camela Kay used her fingers to show the size of the baggies, about 1 inch square.

“I was shocked,” she testified. “I questioned [Mead] and asked where he got those. He said Eric directed him and told him they were in shoeboxes.”

She said Mead then put them on a coffee table in front of where Eric Kay was sitting with Taylor.

In his earlier testimony, Mead said he recalled “very little of that morning” and did not remember asking Kay where drugs were, whether he went into Kay’s bedroom or if he found drugs in baggies there. Angels attorneys said in opening remarks that the team was not responsible for Skaggs’ death and was not aware of Skaggs’ illicit drug use or that Kay had provided drugs to multiple players. The defense also argued that Skaggs had used drugs when he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks, whom he played for before his time with the Angels.

Angels attorney Todd Theodora said it was Skaggs who “decided to obtain the illicit pills and take the illicit drugs along with the alcohol the night he died.”

Camela Kay testified she continued to have concerns about her ex-husband’s substance abuse and that she shared those concerns with Mead and Taylor.

She also said she never saw improvement in Eric Kay, even after he was sent to outpatient therapy following the failed 2017 intervention. Camela Kay testified — backed by text messages shown in court — that she had multiple conversations with Angels benefits manager Cecilia Schneider to get her husband into an outpatient rehabilitation program in 2017.

Kay also testified she had been on the Angels’ plane in the past and that she observed conduct on the plane that caused her concern. When asked about the conduct, she said, “I had seen them passing out pills and drinking alcohol excessively.”

Asked plaintiff’s attorney Leah Graham: “When you say observed them, who is the them?”

“Players, clubbies,” Kay replied, indicating she believed she saw Xanax and Percocet being handed out. She later said she was kept away from players on the plane, “but you can see what’s going on behind you” and when she would go to the bathroom.

In 2013, Camela Kay said, Mead and Taylor were at the team hotel after Eric Kay had a panic attack at Yankee Stadium in New York. It was there, Camela Kay said, where Eric Kay told her he was taking five Vicodin per day. She testified Taylor and Mead were there and heard the admission.

In 2019, she testified Monday afternoon, Taylor drove Eric Kay home after an episode of strange behavior at the office. She said she found a pill bottle in the gutter where Taylor’s car was parked, and she emptied the contents in front of Taylor — about 10 blue pills that she told him were oxycodone. She said she told Taylor her husband needed help. Eric Kay later went with his sister to the hospital, where he spent three days before starting outpatient rehab. She quoted Kay’s sister as saying the pills were for Skaggs.

In earlier testimony, Taylor said he drove Eric Kay home but denied that Camela Kay dumped blue pills out in front of him. He also denied that he was told they were oxycodone and that they were for Skaggs.

Camela Kay’s testimony continues Tuesday.

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Manfred expresses optimism on 2028 Olympics

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Manfred expresses optimism on 2028 Olympics

LOS ANGELES — MLB commissioner Rob Manfred called major league player involvement in the 2028 Olympics “a unique opportunity to market the sport worldwide” and sounded optimistic while talking through the logistics of how that might work when the Games come to L.A. in summer 2028.

“The way we’re thinking about it is it would be an extension of the All-Star break,” Manfred said Monday in an interview on ESPN Radio ahead of Game 3 of the World Series. “The All-Star break would begin, we’d play the All-Star Game, and then roll right into the Olympics thereafter. So, it’d be probably 11 days of break, all in, something like that.”

MLB’s All-Star Game, traditionally on a Tuesday, would likely take place July 11 in 2028. Baseball in the Olympics is currently scheduled to be played July 15-20. If it works out, baseball’s regular season would pause for close to two weeks in the middle of July. Manfred reiterated to ESPN’s Jon Sciambi and Buster Olney that separating it into two breaks “gets really complicated” and would ultimately cause an even longer break because of the additional travel days required.

Manfred also shed light Monday on MLB and ESPN’s potential new rights deal, which has yet to be announced, saying there will be “a Wednesday night package” while making reference to the league’s streaming arm, MLB.TV, being part of ESPN’s direct-to-consumer offerings.

“There’s going to be integration in terms of local broadcasts that I think the folks at ESPN, and certainly we, look at as an experiment that can be really helpful to the game as we move forward in a rapidly changing environment,” Manfred said.

Asked what has him most excited about MLB, Manfred said, “International.” The 2025 season began in Japan, one year after beginning in South Korea. Next year, the World Baseball Classic will be played. And two years after that, the hope is that some of the world’s best baseball players will participate in the Olympics for the first time since 1992.

Casey Wasserman, chairman of the LA 2028 organizing committee, made what Manfred called “a really compelling presentation” to league owners on the subject, calling it a one-time opportunity with the Games being held in the United States. Manfred said MLB is “in the phase now of working with the players’ association to get them on board with the program.”

“It’s a unique opportunity to market the sport worldwide, and you ought to take advantage of it,” Manfred said. “So, that’s why we’re continuing down the road. I think the owners really buy into that idea. It is a complicated path. We’ve made great progress with LA 2028 in terms of scheduling, exactly what the tournament would look like, how the qualifiers would look, how it would fit into the Olympic program.”

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