Why USC should be upset, a new-look Clemson and everything we’re excited for in bowl season
-
ESPN staff
It’s Selection Day and that means bowl season is quickly upon us — arguably the most wonderful time of the year.
With Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State slated for the College Football Playoff, the rest of the bowl schedule is set. Before we get into what we’re most looking forward to this postseason outside of the semis and national title, we’ve got one final Anger Index on who should be most upset at this year’s selections.
Check out the complete bowl schedule here.
Jump to:
Anger Index | Bowl and Playoff Roundtable
Anger index
The final four is set, and for the first time in the history of the College Football Playoff, it doesn’t include Alabama or Clemson. So, yeah, Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney might be a little upset today, but they’re certainly not the only ones with a few gripes about how the committee came up with its top four.
For the last time this season, here’s who’s angry at the committee this week.
1. USC Trojans (ranked 10th)
Perspective is a funny thing. If the only conversation is who has the better record, then it makes sense to put Ohio State (11-1) ahead of USC (11-2). But look at the comparison from another angle and, well, the conversation gets a little trickier.
USC has lost to one team. Ohio State has lost to one team.
USC lost its last game by 23 points. Ohio State lost its last game by 22 points.
USC and Ohio State have one opponent in common: Notre Dame. The Trojans beat a red-hot Notre Dame team by 11 in a game they controlled throughout. Ohio State beat a work-in-progress Notre Dame team in the season opener by 11 in a game that was close until late in the fourth quarter.
Oh, and USC plays in a league that finished with six ranked teams (all in the top 18). The Big Ten has three.
And then, of course, there’s this: A week ago, USC was in the top four and Ohio State was not. By virtue of its own success, USC had to play another game, while Ohio State sat home. And the reason for that? Just a quirk of college football’s ad hoc systems, whereby the Big Ten plays with divisions and the Pac-12 doesn’t. As a result, USC had to go up in a rematch with Utah. Ohio State was the second-best team in the Big Ten, and without divisions, it would’ve had a rematch with Michigan, too. Instead, the Buckeyes got the week off while Michigan played unranked Purdue for the conference title.
To think, too, that if Oregon hadn’t blown a 31-10 lead to Oregon State, USC wouldn’t have had to play Utah again in that Pac-12 title game. If Washington hadn’t blown a game against woeful Arizona State back in early October, USC wouldn’t have played Utah again either. There’s no guarantee the results for the Trojans would’ve been any better against the Ducks or Huskies, but one fact already in evidence was that USC had already lost once to Utah. It was a bad matchup — one made tougher when Caleb Williams got hurt.
In the end, the argument that Ohio State is simply a better team than USC is a fair one. But it’s still hard to swallow the logic that getting a chance to play in a conference title game was a massive detriment for one team, and getting blown out a week earlier was actually a huge win for the other.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (ranked No. 1)
Hey Georgia, here’s your reward for being the best team in the country all season: You get a date with, arguably, the second-most talented team in the country in the semifinal.
A quick comparison between Ohio State and TCU:
Ohio State is No. 3 in FPI. TCU is No. 10.
Ohio State is No. 3 in SP+. TCU is No. 6.
Ohio State’s past four recruiting classes ranked, on average, sixth. TCU’s ranked 38th.
Ohio State is making its fifth playoff appearance. TCU is making its first.
It’s true, of course, that Georgia wouldn’t have been a shoo-in to beat TCU, and the Bulldogs are the obvious favorite over Ohio State, too. But the bottom line is this is a far tougher matchup for the No. 1 team in the country than TCU or USC or Tennessee or Clemson or, heck, even Alabama might’ve been.
The Buckeyes’ ugly loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale is the overwhelming storyline because it happened most recently, but as committee chairman Boo Corrigan noted, the final score wasn’t entirely indicative of how competitive Ohio State was for most of the game, and there’s a reason the Buckeyes spent the bulk of the year ranked among the top two teams in the country.
TCU is a great story this season. The Horned Frogs are absolutely deserving of the playoff berth. But we’ve seen enough college football over the years to know that, by the time we get to December, the single biggest factor in success is talent, and there’s a good case to be made that the two most talented teams are meeting in the semifinal, which is hardly a fun draw for the Dawgs.
1:16
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart reacts to drawing Ohio State in a College Football Playoff semifinal.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (ranked fifth)
There’s a lot of “yelling ‘Don’t you know who I am?’ at the maitre’d when you can’t get a table” vibes here, but … don’t you know who Nick Saban is? Sure, Alabama hasn’t looked like a playoff team for much of this season, but two losses on the final play of the game make this awfully hard to swallow for a program that has more College Football Playoff wins than Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan combined.
4 (tie). Tennessee Volunteers (ranked sixth) and Clemson Tigers (ranked seventh)
Don’t expect a Christmas card this year, Shane Beamer. You ruined two serious playoff bids in the final two weeks of the regular season. Couldn’t you have just phoned it in like the LSU Tigers did? Oh, sure, maybe if Hendon Hooker doesn’t get hurt or Dabo Swinney doesn’t spite-start DJ Uiagalelei things are different, but we all know who the real enemy is here, Beamer, and we’re not going to forget it any time soon. Especially since they’re going to be reminded again and again in the run-up to the Orange Bowl.
5. Washington Huskies (ranked 12th)
Let’s do a little blind résumé to end the year.
Team A: 10-2, two wins over ranked opponents, both losses by a TD or less. Won last six games.
Team B: 10-2, two wins over ranked opponents, both losses by 14 or more. Lost two of last four.
Team A, of course, is Washington. Team B is Tennessee, the lone wild card in the New Year’s Six. Was there much chance of the Huskies really being ranked ahead of the Vols? Funny, perhaps Beamer and the Gamecocks made that happen, too. South Carolina‘s win over Clemson made that second Tennessee loss seem better, while the Arizona State loss for Washington continues to look downright awful.
Given Tennessee’s late stumbles and Hendon Hooker’s injury, there’s a good case to be made the Huskies are the far more dangerous team today. But they’re on the outside looking in — just as they were for the Pac-12 title and hopes of a Rose Bowl — because they couldn’t beat Arizona Freakin’ State.
— David M. Hale
Roundtable
Our reporters break down what games they’re most looking forward to and which teams and players have something to prove this postseason.
Should the CFP committee have done anything differently?
2:49
CFP selection committee chair Boo Corrigan details the discussions that went into picking the teams for the playoff.
David M. Hale: The committee likely got it right in selecting some combination of the four best or most deserving teams, but it’s still hard to swallow the notion that USC was punished for playing (and losing) a game Ohio State didn’t have to play. If the Trojans could’ve simply opted out of the Pac-12 title game a week ago, they’d be in the playoff. If the Big Ten didn’t have divisions, Ohio State would’ve had a rematch with Michigan already and would’ve either earned its way in or been in the same position as USC. It’s a function of college football’s quirks that it comes down to something so illogical, but in the end, USC got exposed and Ohio State, for better or worse, will live to fight another day.
Chris Low: No matter what the committee did, it was going to be criticized. But, yes, it looks like the four most deserving teams got in. The four best? That’s up for debate. Just like Roy Kramer, the godfather of the BCS, used to say, there’s no perfect system to select the teams, not with everybody playing different schedules and in different conferences. Georgia and Michigan were locks. It’s a bummer for USC it didn’t get in when it probably would have been a lock had it not played in the Pac-12 championship game. But it lost to Utah … twice in the same season. You could make cases for Ohio State, Tennessee and Alabama — probably in that order — for the fourth spot. The Vols had better wins, but were also blown out by South Carolina and lost starting quarterback Hendon Hooker. Alabama, with a healthy Bryce Young, is capable of beating anybody but lost two games on the final play and won two games on the final play. It was the ultimate back-in job by the Buckeyes, who were hammered on their home field the final week of the regular season but still managed to slip in.
Mark Schlabach: I think the committee got the four teams exactly right, although I think one could certainly argue that Ohio State might have deserved the No. 3 seed, after TCU’s overtime loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game. I know the committee was probably trying to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State rematch in the Fiesta Bowl, but given how many people watched the regular-season showdown, I’m sure millions would have tuned in again. Alabama made its argument, but the Tide have no one to blame but themselves. Penalties and turnovers cost them in their close losses to Tennessee and LSU. The Tide are undoubtedly one of the two or three most talented teams in the FBS, but they didn’t always play like it this season.
Blake Baumgartner: I’ll concur with Mark. I know I definitely considered flipping TCU and Ohio State in our final staff CFP picks. I feel comfortable saying the Buckeyes are a better team than the Horned Frogs. But Sonny Dykes’ team shouldn’t be penalized for playing in a conference championship game that Ryan Day’s team failed to qualify for because it couldn’t beat Michigan within the friendly confines of the Horseshoe.
Alex Scarborough: Maybe I should stop listening the moment the rankings are revealed. Mostly I’m OK with the results, but it’s when the committee chair comes on and describes the rationale for their decisions that they lose me. Ohio State is credited with keeping the game close with Michigan for three quarters? What does that even mean? The Buckeyes went on to lose at home by three touchdowns. Alabama lost two games on the road on the final play. I get that the chair has an impossible job, but come on.
Adam Rittenberg: I’ve long believed that the committee’s toughest job is figuring out the weekly rankings leading up to the final one — and justifying them. The actual CFP group normally works itself out, and did again this season. Hale makes a fair point about USC, but unbalanced schedules also helped the Trojans, who didn’t have to face two of the league’s best teams (Oregon and Washington). The four-team CFP is designed not to reward the deeper leagues, and it’s unfortunate the Pac-12 won’t have a representative despite being deeper than the three leagues that made the field.
Paolo Uggetti: It’s hard to say so. In many ways, the committee was handed a pretty clear-cut top four. And while yes, I’d agree that USC got unfairly punished for playing and losing in a conference championship (while TCU didn’t), the Trojans had their chance to prove they were a playoff-caliber team and could not do it. The debate between most deserving and best teams is going to plague the committee until the playoff is expanded (and maybe even then), but this season, there’s little to no doubt the four best teams were also the ones who deserved to play for the national title.
Andrea Adelson: I have no issues with what the committee did, though I think it is a shame a team that got housed at home by its rival got rewarded because there were no other justifiable options. No, I am not buying “the game was close for three quarters.” We saw how the whole thing ended. Blame South Carolina. If Tennessee and/or Clemson had beaten the Gamecocks as expected, I firmly believe the top four would have looked different. But that is what makes the regular season a quasi-playoff unto itself.
What NY6 bowl game are you most looking forward to?
Hale: The Peach Bowl, and it’s not really close. For all the hand-wringing about how Ohio State got here, the bottom line is this: For the bulk of this season, we all assumed the two most talented teams in the country were Ohio State and Georgia. Now we’ll get to see them play. So, who wins it? The offense with the Heisman-caliber QB and the seemingly endless supply of skill-position talent? Or the blue-collar bruisers with the dominant defense? It’s a perfect matchup for the playoff, and it might be the best semifinal game we’ve had since Georgia and Oklahoma went toe-to-toe in the 2017 Rose Bowl.
Low: A distinctly orange Capital One Orange Bowl would be my choice. Clemson and Tennessee, with their two distinctly different shades of orange, are only about 3½ hours away from each other but have met only three times over the past 75 years. This is also a chance for both teams to take out some frustration (against each other) thanks to a common nemesis. Shane Beamer and South Carolina ruined both teams’ playoff chances with wins against Tennessee and Clemson in the final two weeks of the regular season.
Scarborough: I’m with Chris. I’m looking forward to Tennessee-Clemson as a sneak peek of each team’s offense next season, specifically at quarterback. I mean, surely Dabo Swinney will stick with Cade Klubnik now, right? He flashed real potential against North Carolina on Saturday. And Joe Milton III could be fun replacing Hooker. Milton is strong and fast, and he has an absolute cannon for an arm.
Schlabach: Georgia and Ohio State seemed to be on a collision course all season. It’s offense vs. defense. The Big Ten vs. the SEC. Ryan Day vs. Kirby Smart. Bring it on. The Buckeyes’ firepower on offense will test Georgia’s defense in a big way, especially if OSU’s tailbacks are healthy. Georgia’s secondary has had some problems against explosive receivers, and few teams are better at that position than the Buckeyes. Georgia hasn’t been as consistent as last season’s championship team, but it has risen to the occasion when it mattered most. I don’t think the CFP semifinal game will be any different.
Baumgartner: I’m with Hale and Schlabach here: Georgia vs. Ohio State in the Peach Bowl. Most of the national semifinals in the College Football Playoff haven’t been … how do I want to say this? “Competitive.” The Buckeyes are smarting from their fourth-quarter collapse against the Wolverines Thanksgiving weekend and the Bulldogs want to supplant the Crimson Tide as the preeminent program in the sport. Ohio State’s dynamic offense against Georgia’s stout defense is one hell of a nightcap on New Year’s Eve. You have to feel like the Buckeyes coming down to the ATL to face off with the defending national champions has the feel and ingredients to provide all of us an instant classic.
Uggetti: It’s easy to lean toward the shiny toy that is Georgia-Ohio State, but I’m really looking forward to the Fiesta Bowl. Not only will the matchup decide the other finalist, but it’s an equally great contrast in styles. Michigan already proved it can take down one high-powered offense in Ohio State, but TCU is riding its own capable offense as well as what feels like a dream season into this game. Nearly everything about the matchup says Michigan should take care of business, but I wouldn’t count out the Hypnotoad just yet.
Which bowl game outside the NY6 are you most looking forward to?
Schlabach: The Alamo Bowl might be fun to watch. If Texas manages to beat Washington, we’ll hear once again about how the Longhorns are back. I think Steve Sarkisian does finally have Texas on the right track, but there’s a way to go before it is ready to compete in the SEC. Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is one of the more underrated players in the country. He has thrown for more than 4,300 yards with 29 touchdowns, but you don’t hear as much about him as Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Caleb Williams and others.
Scarborough: LSU-Purdue in the Vrbo Citrus Bowl could be interesting. The Tigers outperformed expectations Year 1 under Brian Kelly, but there’s a lot of room for improvement. I’m curious to see how they develop, especially in the passing game. Some other compelling matchups will be Notre Dame-South Carolina in the TaxSlayer Bowl, Florida State-Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl and, lest we forget the all-time best bowl celebration, I will be tuning in to NC State–Maryland in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
Adelson: Speaking of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, this one rises to No. 1 on the list if Ron Cherry can be the honorary game official to commemorate the 15th anniversary season of “Giving him the business,” which he said during a Maryland-NC State game back when the Terps were in the ACC. Perhaps Hale has some connections. This is actually one of the more underrated rivalry games lost to conference realignment. In 70 games played, the teams are deadlocked at 33-33-4 and last played in 2013 — the Terps’ final year in the ACC. There is one other rivalry game that returns — Cincinnati vs. Louisville in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl. How can you not love a game featuring the Keg of Nails trophy?
Rittenberg: I’ll go Group of 5 here and go with the Cure Bowl, which matches Sun Belt champion Troy against Conference USA champion UTSA. Few first-year coaches did a better job than Troy’s Jon Sumrall, who won an increasingly competitive league with a team that embraced defense until its offense began to roll down the stretch. Sumrall and UTSA’s Jeff Traylor both will be on the radar for Power 5 jobs in the near future. Traylor has been exceptional for UTSA, which enters the bowl on a 10-game win streak and boasts a must-see quarterback in Frank Harris. Part of me would love to see these teams take on Power 5 opponents in bowls, but they’ll also get a nice spotlight by sharing the field in Orlando.
Baumgartner: This Michigan State alum is still having nightmares over watching what Penix did to the Spartans back in September. The chemistry Penix shares with Kalen DeBoer is real, and spearheaded one of the better turnarounds this season. And the Huskies had a good shot at the Rose Bowl, if not for some Pac-12 chaos during the regular season’s final week. The Alamo Bowl will be an interesting chess match between two great offensive minds: DeBoer and Steve Sarkisian.
What player/team has the most to prove in a bowl?
Hale: TCU. No one is surprised to see Georgia, Michigan or Ohio State in the College Football Playoff. Been there, done that. But TCU is a true Cinderella, having opened the year unranked and gotten here with a series of frantic second-half comebacks. So, was TCU lucky or actually good? There’s a good case to be made that this year’s TCU is the most unlikely playoff team ever, and while that means the Horned Frogs won’t carry the weight of heavy expectations into their matchup with Michigan, it also means there’s an opportunity to completely alter the narrative around their season from one about luck to one about genuine skill.
Low: It’s not that Stetson Bennett has a lot to prove, because his story is one of the best in all of college football. He goes from a walk-on to Georgia’s starting quarterback and the unquestioned leader of that team. What the 25-year-old Bennett can prove is that he’s one of college football’s most distinguished winners if he can lead Georgia to back-to-back national titles.
Schlabach: It has to be Ohio State’s defense, right? The Buckeyes looked better before they ran into the Wolverines, and they were run over in a 45-23 loss at the Horseshoe. Michigan had 530 yards of offense — 278 passing and 252 rushing. The Wolverines threw over the top and ran through the Buckeyes. Georgia’s defense gets all of the attention, but the Bulldogs are capable of putting up a bunch of points. They might be even better if receivers Arian Smith and AD Mitchell are healthy.
Scarborough: I’m still a little skeptical of Michigan. I’ve been down on the Big Ten this season and its schedule was underwhelming to say the least. The last two games against Ohio State and Purdue were impressive, but I want to see how J.J. McCarthy and the passing game perform if they’re trailing or it’s a close game late.
Rittenberg: Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. He handled the Michigan loss with grace and maturity, saying he knows how his Buckeyes legacy will be viewed with no Big Ten titles and an 0-2 record in The Game. But he has a chance to take out the defending champs and set up a potential rematch against Michigan in the championship game. Stroud has been an excellent player statistically, but Ohio State fans are really down on him — and coach Ryan Day — after the Michigan loss. He should be incredibly motivated, and still leads one of the nation’s most talented offenses into the CFP semis.
Adelson: Hard to argue with what was already mentioned. Looking outside the playoff, I will go with North Carolina and quarterback Drake Maye. The hype surrounding him is real — opposing coaches rave about him and his potential to be the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. But it goes without saying both Maye and the Tar Heels ended their season with major disappointment. After a 9-1 start, they closed on a three-game losing streak and Maye was not nearly as efficient — failing to throw for over 300 yards in the three losses. The struggles are not entirely on Maye. The offensive line deserves its share of responsibility — teams have increased their pressure on Maye and he has gotten sacked and hit at increasing rates. In the ACC championship game, he was sacked four times and threw two interceptions. North Carolina also has had an ineffective run game, which adds to the problems. The bowl game is a good way to turn the page toward 2023 and what should be a season that begins with Heisman hype for the returning quarterback.
Uggetti: I’m with Adam here. Stroud has proved to be an incredible talent ready to take on the NFL, but to leave college with two losses to Michigan and nothing close to a title is not the way the Southern California native wants to go out. The fact that he’s getting another chance to redeem the Buckeyes’ season and possibly beat the Wolverines in a title game could reshape his legacy entirely.
Baumgartner: While I agree with what Adam and Paolo had to say about Stroud’s potential reprieve with Ohio State, the fact that TCU is in the College Football Playoff is one of the season’s best and most remarkable stories. They say things are bigger in Texas. As the first team from the Lone Star State to reach the CFP, the Horned Frogs have a golden opportunity to make an indelible statement if they can stun Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl. There’s something special brewing in Fort Worth.
Underclassman you’re most excited to see in bowl season?
Hale: Clemson QB Cade Klubnik. There will be a lot of “what ifs” whispered around Clemson for the next few months. Dabo Swinney insisted on sticking with DJ Uiagalelei through an up-and-down season, and the result was two losses that might have been avoided if Klubnik had gotten on the field earlier. Instead, Swinney waited until the ACC championship game to unleash Klubnik on an unsuspecting North Carolina, and the freshman was exceptional, completing 20 of 24 passes for 279 yards. Was that a function of the Tar Heels’ porous defense (No. 110 in FBS in opponent passer rating) combined with a couple of injured DBs? Or was it, as Swinney said, a sneak preview of the future at Clemson? The Orange Bowl will likely give us a far better answer in a matchup with a very good Tennessee team.
Scarborough: LSU outside linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. tore up the conference down the stretch as a freshman this season. It was very Will Anderson Jr.-esque the way he took over games rushing the passer. And while he wasn’t as effective against Texas A&M and Georgia, I still expect big things from him. A strong bowl game could set him up as one of the best defensive players in college football next season.
Schlabach: Check back with me on this one in a few days. If a lot of potential NFL first-rounders opt out of the non-CFP bowl games as expected, we could see a number of underclassmen step into bigger roles in bowl games. I’m talking about guys like Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe.
Uggetti: Raleek Brown. USC is going to need a new No. 1 back next season to replace Travis Dye and Austin Jones, and the five-star prospect has already shown flashes of his raw talent this year that make me think Lincoln Riley could use the bowl game to unleash him.
Adelson: Hale is right. The Klubnik/Will Shipley combination is one that will have Clemson as a 2023 preseason favorite to make it back to the playoffs. But an under-the-radar ACC player to keep an eye on is Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, one of the biggest reasons Duke made a bowl this year. If he throws for 206 yards against UCF in the Military Bowl presented by Peraton, he will be Duke’s first 3,000-yard passer since Sean Renfree in 2012 and just the fifth different quarterback in school history to ever reach that mark.
Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s get into it.
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1
What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 15
11: 1
You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?
It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?
Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2
The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan
You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell
Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2
Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.
That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez
The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.
But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen
Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3
The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.
That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.
Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney
Who will win the AL West?
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8
Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers
Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo
How many games will the Rockies lose?
119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1
We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.
Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.
Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.
Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.
Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.
Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.
Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.
Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.
Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.
Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.
Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.
Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.
Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney
-
Bradford Doolittle
The last Stock Watch of the regular season is here. Before the next one, we’ll know who the 2025 World Series champion is, and will be knee-deep in another Hot Stove season.
With the Milwaukee Brewers topping the watch for the second month in a row, let’s use that surprising fact to make a couple of observations about this year’s competition:
• Payroll matters but it’s still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball’s economic disparity. Not that we shouldn’t seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win.
• There’s a solid chance we might see a champion we’ve never seen before. There are just five remaining teams with a goose egg in the World Series championship column. One of them is the Brewers, whose odds for ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, both likely playoff teams. Taken together, these three clubs have around a 28% shot at this year’s title. In other words, there’s better than a 1-in-4 chance that some long-suffering fan base will get to have a parade in a couple of months.
With the MLB trade deadline more than a month old, let’s take a look at the most recent fortunes of all 30 teams, with an eye on how their moves (or non-moves) have worked (or not worked) so far.
Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: Milwaukee was quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has been so-so in a mid-leverage role. Yet Milwaukee has baseball’s best record and run differential since deadline day. Sometimes you don’t mess with a good thing. Should the injury to closer Trevor Megill linger, you might argue Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in pursuit of a back-end reliever. First, we ought to wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling roster holes.
Win average: 93.8 (Last: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 7.8%)
Deadline aftermath: Dave Dombrowski went with quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has mashed while playing mostly every day in center field. Jhoan Duran hasn’t been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, while changing the dynamic of the bullpen, now and looking ahead to October. It took Duran a month to move into a tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he didn’t allow a walk or a homer. The additions continue even after the stinging loss of Zack Wheeler. Conceding nothing, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Last: 13.6%)
Deadline aftermath: Chicago’s quiet deadline rankled pundits, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the struggles of the few additions the Cubs did make, and the ongoing distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop trading for infielders at the deadline. Last year, they picked up Isaac Paredes, who flailed as a Cub, then moved on and went back to his typical self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from an above-average hitter with Minnesota to borderline unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the dish, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 15.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Los Angeles’ deadline approach was more similar to a team straddling the add/subtract fence than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champ angling for a repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Mostly the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the past month. Their revived hurlers have kept the Dodgers in the elite tier. Over the remainder of the season, if L.A. can match its first-half hitting with its second-half pitching, the Dodgers will hit the postseason as the behemoth we always thought they were.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: The Tigers went heavy on pitching at the deadline with a particular focus on positive regression candidates. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The returns on starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played middling ball over the past month, largely due to an offense that has fallen off a bit and went unaddressed in the trade market. The Tigers are fine in the American League Central race, but find themselves in a tight battle for a No. 1 seed with Toronto.
Win average: 91.7 (Last: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Last: 5.3%)
Deadline aftermath: A leaky bullpen has kept the Blue Jays from keeping their AL East rivals at bay, and, as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a road team in the wild-card round. The deadline impact has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But on a relief staff that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a below-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.
Win average: 90.6 (Last: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Padres overtook the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to slip back behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has accomplished its primary objective, which was to shore up roster holes and raise San Diego’s floor. The exception to that description — the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen — looks very much like a ceiling raiser. The only quibble might be in the rotation, where those the Padres dealt (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have together outpitched those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.
Win average: 90.5 (Last: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Last: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 8.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Yankees’ trajectory changed sharply over the second half of August, a month they exited as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Behind a reinvigorated offense and a steady rotation, New York is back in contention for the AL East crown, a No. 1 seed, the whole pinstriped ball of wax. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to pull it together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in an even more heightened state of anxiety than usual. If not for the solid work done so far by ex-Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work bolstering the relief group might look even worse.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Last: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Last: 5.5%)
Deadline aftermath: Boston’s pitching staff additions of Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “‘all-in!” for a team that by the end of July had positioned itself for a playoff run. May and earlier in-season addition Jordan Hicks haven’t had an impact, but Matz has been lights out in a surging bullpen. Boston continues to play well, and the promotion of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a jolt of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were in short supply. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost any ground since we last convened.
Win average: 88.1 (Last: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Last: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Last: 6.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Whatever you thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so you can’t blame them, and it’s likely that without them, things would be worse. Still, the Astros enter the stretch run in a more precarious position than they’ve been in a long time.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Last: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Mets enter September with one of baseball’s hottest offenses. They also have one of MLB’s coldest pitching staffs. Thus, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That isn’t great, but if the bullpen is rolling … well, it’s not. The relievers went 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline pickups Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month to get this right before the playoffs.
Win average: 86.5 (Last: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The process — acquiring Arizona’s corner infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — was deservedly lauded. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s Mariners debut was 0.708, mostly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suarez. It’s 0.659 since. Meh! Seattle has treaded water since the deadline splash, ranking 18th in runs, despite a huge month from Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh‘s homer-fest. The Mariners need their big guns to get hot at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff slot, is assured.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 2.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Despite lackluster offense, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, coming away with relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The big prize was starter Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until the injury to Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers have leaned on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most if not all of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Royals continue to undermine excuses from less aggressive clubs in baseball’s lower economic tiers. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of negative regression performers down from 2024, and glaring, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their floor with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. End result: The Royals have plenty to play for during the stretch run. A playoff return remains in play.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Last: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The Reds’ acquisition of starter Zack Littell struck me as odd and, frankly, it still does. He has been pretty good. But Cincinnati has plenty of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the pickups for the lineup have been chef’s kiss good. Miguel Andujar has hit like peak-level Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has flashed his elite defense and paired it with a level of offense that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because of deadline deficiencies.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Deadline aftermath: The Giants went into soft unload mode around the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and while their probabilities made the playoffs possible, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed — they’re still a fringe playoff candidate — but some of their pickups have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, while swinging at everything, has flashed some pop and is getting acclimated to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they’ll be next season, and have given their fans reasons to watch the stretch run with interest.
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about setting themselves up for the next season while not totally raising the white flag on the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have chugged along on the same track, though staying the course has come with dwindling playoff odds. The new catchers — Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes — have together hit less than a pre-universal-DH pitcher. But the various departures have created openings for Feduccia, Carson Williams and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miracle wild-card berth is not, as yet, totally out of the question.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long shot postseason bid would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years off and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Besides, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the major hitting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to indefinite leave, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes remain slightly alive. That’s the beauty of this year’s AL. It’s hard to play yourself out of contention.
Win average: 78.9 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: You can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks traded more right-now value at the deadline but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller and Grichuk have … helped? It’s hard to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez replacement Blaze Alexander has taken off on offense, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten hot thanks to the work of off-the-radar types.
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, dealing free agents-to-be and forgoing short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, no matter if the team on the field clings to fringe contention. The losses of those dealt, even closer Helsley, given how he has performed in New York, haven’t had any effect on the short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to plug along in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In some ways, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had just politely bottomed out.
Win average: 75.8 (Last: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Marlins played it casual at the deadline rather than kicking the can down the road by dealing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about getting better and creating opportunity for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who put up a huge August in the relative vacuum of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the aspirants won’t be deadline pickup Ryan Gusto, who was torched over three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder impingement. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.
Win average: 75.4 (Last: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Angels’ soft add around the deadline has actually worked, to a degree, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia have been airtight. Thus a bottom-five bullpen has been middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and an 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have rendered that development moot. The early returns on ex-Yankee Oswald Peraza haven’t been good, as not only has he struggled to keep his OPS over 0.500, but he gave up eight runs on the mound during a mop-up appearance. The Angels’ season appears headed nowhere.
Win average: 74.2 (Last: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card candidacy. You don’t get to erase bad months from the record, but it’s worth considering that outside of that plunge, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The splash at the deadline — trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return — was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game figure in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are getting good.
Win average: 74.1 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. The injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial underperformances, like that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been hot as a firecracker since the break, which has been encouraging, but this season has mostly been one of Atlanta becoming a frequent stop on the DFA merry-go-round. The only note you might offer about the deadline is that pending free agents Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna should have been moved. It’s been a rough season.
Win average: 73.8 (Last: 76.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Unsurprisingly, the Twins have floundered since their aggressive offloading approach to the deadline. With this season lost, Minnesota’s short-term focus is on the young players it picked up during the flurry of activity. The initial results for James Outman, Alan Roden, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been subpar across the board, but it’s early days and that list just represents those who have reached the majors. In any event, when you look at the exploits of ex-Twins like Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa on their new teams, you can’t say Minnesota hasn’t impacted the pennant races.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 72.3, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Orioles turned the page on a disappointing season at the deadline and added depth to their system in the process. The on-field results haven’t improved since the reshuffling, though the rotation had a nice run of outings. It’s all about next season. The Orioles’ August was a mixed bag in that regard. On the downside, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser struggled last month. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers reached the majors, with Beavers in particular getting off to a good start. The Orioles won’t return to the postseason, but they can enter the offseason with positive momentum.
Win average: 71.6 (Last: 69.9, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: With the Pirates’ focus, as ever, on the distant horizon, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s post-deadline roster has stayed competitive. The rotation remains the unit to watch, and August was not without interest for that group. Paul Skenes continues to build a Cy Young case, but for once, he’s not the biggest reason for excitement. That would be Bubba Chandler, technically a reliever for now, who has looked terrific over a pair of bulk outings. After eight scoreless frames to start his career, Chandler has a lifetime ERA even better than Skenes’. Hey, in Pittsburgh you get your kicks where you can.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 64.5, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Nationals’ never-ending rebuild feels stalled, perhaps even more so after another deadline of dealing veteran talent. Whether or not Washington got fair return in its deals is almost beside the point. When will it end? If the young foundational players were picking up momentum, it might feel different. But CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House are among those who have lagged since the All-Star break. If ever there was a franchise in need of a spark, it’s this one right now. The offense has been brutal, but the pitching, especially the rotation, has been even worse. Sigh.
Win average: 59.6 (Last: 62.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The White Sox were playing pretty well at the time of the deadline, but the month since has not been kind. Still, the record is neither here nor there, it’s more about individual performances right now. And through that prism, there is plenty to like about Chicago’s direction. Kyle Teel has been a well-rounded force at the plate. Colson Montgomery has displayed explosive power. There’s more, but you get the idea. The downer is the possible season-ending injury to Luis Robert Jr., whose combined slash over the past two seasons is .223/.288/.372. Maybe this is just what he is now.
Win average: 45.9 (Last: 44.3, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Colorado continues to lose games at a prodigious pace, but it’s a less frantic pace than earlier this season. Progress? Maybe not. During August, the Colorado rotation posted an ERA of 6.54 and allowed a .309/.381/.514 slash line. Before you start adjusting the rotation numbers for Coors Field, don’t bother. Those were the road numbers. The overall numbers can’t be published without a parental warning. One quest remains: Hunter Goodman‘s 2.7 bWAR places him third in Colorado history among primary catchers. The record is Chris Iannetta’s 3.2 in 2008. Setting any kind of positive record amid this mess would be something.
A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season begins.
The Detroit Tigers are pretty much a postseason lock with a whopping lead in the the AL Central, and the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are comfortably sitting atop their respective divisions.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the first team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Tigers, Phillies, Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres all have at least a 99% chance of making the postseason entering the final month of the MLB season.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Mariners at (3) Astros, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Mariners/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And, in what seems to be a yearly September occurrence, the Houston Astros are attempting to separate themselves from the Seattle Mariners in a two-team AL West race.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
Five teams have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets trying to keep a comfortable lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot. The Phillies and Brewers are seemingly cruising to division titles, but there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024