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IBM CEO Arvind Krishna speaks at an IBM facility in Poughkeepsie, New York, on Oct. 6, 2022. IBM announced $20 billion in investments during President Biden’s visit that will go toward research and development and the manufacturing of semiconductors, mainframe technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computing in the Hudson Valley.

Dana Ullman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

IBM isn’t often described as a hot company. But in a year that saw investors abandon all major tech stocks, Big Blue was in the green.

The Nasdaq is closing out its worst year since 2008. High gas prices, soaring inflation and the Federal Reserve’s steady pace of rate increases have punished growth stocks and favored more mature, less volatile names that are viewed as more recession-resistant.

Tech names that thrived during the Covid days suffered the most as the economy reopened and consumers returned to many of their old habits.

Among U.S. tech companies valued at $50 billion or more, IBM was one of only two to generate positive returns in 2022. As of Friday’s close, the stock was up 6% for the year. The other gainer is VMware, which is up 5% because it agreed in May to be acquired by Broadcom for $61 billion.

While Meta, Amazon and Tesla have been pummeled, investors turned to 111-year-old IBM, betting on its stable earnings, alongside energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil, health-care names including Merck and industrials Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin.

IBM beats Big Tech in 2022

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IBM is “trading well above its historical range,” Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. The firm has a hold rating on the stock.

Nobody will mistake IBM for a growth stock. Expansion is consistently in the single digits, and last year the company spun off Kyndryl, its managed infrastructure services business, into a separate publicly traded entity. That cut head count by about 90,000.

But IBM generated $752 million in free cash flow in the latest quarter, up 25% from a year earlier, and paid out $1.5 billion in dividends. Third-quarter earnings and revenue both topped estimates, and the company raised its forecast for the full year.

Crawford Investment Counsel in Atlanta, which focuses on income and dividends, looked at IBM in 2016 and concluded that it would be too early for a major investment, said Aaron Foresman, an equity analyst at the firm.

‘Much closer to their vision’

Crawford’s thesis changed in 2019, after IBM bought faster-growing Red Hat for $34 billion. The firm, which today has $6.7 billion under management, boosted its IBM stake from $2 million to $30 million and kept buying until its holdings reached $109 million.

IBM took a hybrid approach to the cloud under CEO Arvind Krishna, who succeeded Ginni Rometty at the helm in 2020. After struggling to gain scale as a cloud infrastructure provider, the company bet that enterprises would use on-premises data center infrastructure as well as the public cloud, rather than relying entirely on one approach or the other.

“Three years later, it’s much closer to their vision than everything on public cloud,” Foresman said. His firm sold 3% of its shares in the second and third quarter of this year.

Consulting remains a huge part of IBM’s business, accounting for one-third of revenue. In that realm, IBM partners with the big cloud providers, rather than strictly competing with them. The company has a backlog of business with Microsoft worth more than $1 billion, and an even bigger one with Amazon, Krishna said in a conversation with RBC CEO Dave McKay in November.

IBM also made technological advances in 2022, introducing the z16 mainframe computer. When a new mainframe hits, many clients upgrade. That leads to greater hardware revenue and highly profitable transaction processing software to run on the machines. IBM’s prior mainframe boom cycle started in September 2019.

While IBM stayed away from any splashy high-priced acquisitions this year, it announced some smaller deals to enhance certain capabilities. Earlier this month, IBM agreed to buy Octo, a consulting company based in Virginia that targets government agencies. Terms weren’t disclosed. It also absorbed consulting companies Dialexa and Sentaca this year.

IBM's software business contributes to the majority of its profits, says Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson

Foresman described the purchases as an appropriate use of capital and “so small that they’re not necessarily disclosing transaction multiples.”

Still, Krishna recognizes that the economic backdrop isn’t ideal. He said in October that higher prices have led to “some caution creeping into the conversations” in Europe, where the company has to prepare for a downturn. In the Americas, where IBM gets about 53% of revenue, the business climate is “very robust,” he said.

The Bernstein analysts said the stock’s direction from here might simply ride on the state of the economy, rather than any major catalyst inside the company.

“Given its defensive characteristics and historical performance, we believe that IBM is likely to fare well if we continue to have pressured markets, and likely to lag major indices if we enter a recovery period,” they wrote.

IBM’s model through 2024 calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth, translating into free cash flow growth in the high single digits.

That’s good enough for investors who look for safety in their equity bets.

“Combined with mid-single-digit revenue growth, a couple points better than that on EPS and a 5% dividend yield is — you know, that’s not a home run, but it’s well within our expectations for what we’re trying to accomplish,” Foresman said.

WATCH: Technology is a deflationary answer to today’s macro struggles, says IBM CEO Arvind Krishna

Technology is a deflationary answer to today's macro struggles, says IBM CEO Arvind Krishna

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Oracle boosts its generative AI capabilities as cloud competition heats up

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Oracle boosts its generative AI capabilities as cloud competition heats up

US multinational computer technology company Oracle’s logo is pictured at the Mobile World Congress (MWC), the telecom industry’s biggest annual gathering, in Barcelona on February 27, 2024. The world’s biggest mobile phone fair throws open its doors in Barcelona with the sector looking to artificial intelligence to try and reverse declining sales. (Photo by PAU BARRENA / AFP) (Photo by PAU BARRENA/AFP via Getty Images)

Pau Barrena | Afp | Getty Images

U.S. cloud infrastructure provider Oracle is boosting its generative AI capabilities as cloud competition intensifies and more companies jump into AI.

The AI boom — fueled by the launch of chatbot ChatGPT in November 2022 — is driving an increase in demand for cloud computing services and data centers, as large amounts of data are required in AI model training and the cloud provides access to vast datasets.

Oracle has been introducing generative AI capabilities into its cloud infrastructure and applications to complement the traditional AI already embedded in them.

“The classic AI is very good in terms of detecting patterns or predicting numbers … but you cannot use large language models to predict numbers,” Rondy Ng, executive vice president of applications development at Oracle, told CNBC.

“So we combined the predictive numbering capability with the explained ability in words. So the two together become very powerful and you need both. In the past many years, the number prediction part is already very mature. As part of the product we continue to evolve that and it’s not going to stop. Generative AI is basically the talk of the town right now,” said Ng.

In March, Oracle announced additional generative AI features embedded across applications in finance, supply chain, human resources, sales, marketing, and service. The generative AI capabilities can perform tasks such as generating financial reports and drafting job ads, improving productivity and reducing business costs, Oracle said.

This comes after the firm announced the implementation of generative AI across its technology stack in January.

“We believe Oracle is seeing a renaissance of growth with its AI strategy. [It is] well positioned to be a major beneficiary of the AI revolution,” said Dan Ives, managing director of Wedbush Securities, in emailed comments to CNBC on Wednesday.

“The data Oracle sits on and installed base gives Ellison & co. a major advantage to monetize the software layer of AI,” said Ives, referring to Oracle’s chairman and chief technology officer Larry Ellison.

As firms talked up the generative AI story last year, technology providers have to be one step ahead of the cycle, research firm Gartner said in a report on April 17. “They are bringing GenAI capabilities to existing products and services, as well as to use cases being identified by their enterprise clients.”

JPMorgan has said generative AI and AI could drive incremental IT spending and growth across the software landscape. “Many software vendors, including Oracle, have cited benefits from ongoing investments by businesses into AI technologies,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note on March 12.

Oracle might see an increase in revenue and positive impact on its shares if the company manages to capture a larger-than-expected share of the spending into AI, the U.S. investment bank said. Oracle’s shares have spiked 23.74% in the last 12 months, according to FactSet data.

“Generative AI services [are] basically a huge advantage comparing with our competition. The competition needs to work with different companies and cloud providers for that infrastructure and those kinds of services. We actually take everything into an integrated stack, and we consume that,” Ng told CNBC.

AI growth

Oracle has lagged behind rivals like Amazon, Microsoft and Google in cloud infrastructure service market share, according to Synergy Research Group, which ranked Oracle as the sixth-largest service provider, alongside IBM, globally.

While Oracle was late to cloud infrastructure, the AI boom has increased demand for the company’s AI technology. Ellison had in 2018 dismissed cloud computing as “complete gibberish.”

“Oracle did follow the hyperscalers. [I think] that’s not a competitive concern, say for the rest of 2024 and in the foreseeable future. We’re at the very beginning stage of this whole new generative AI journey,” said Ron Westfall, research director at Futurum Group.

CEO Safra Catz said in March the company added several “large new cloud infrastructure” contracts during the fiscal third quarter. Cloud revenue rose 25% year over year to $5.1 billion, Oracle said.

“Interesting to us is management commentary suggesting its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure backlog is significant and AI isn’t yet really driving revenue, which is expected to be more meaningful in FY25,” said Deutsche Bank analysts on Mar. 12.

Cloud players can monetize AI quicker than other companies, says CFRA's Zino on Microsoft earnings

Ellison said in March that a Salt Lake City data center that Oracle is building can fit eight Boeing 747 airplanes nose-to-tail.

Laying out future market opportunities, Ellison said he sees more national and state government applications being run on platforms like Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and added that the firm is negotiating sovereign regions with a number of countries.

“Another area [where Oracle] is ahead of the curve, although everybody’s jumping on it, is in terms of offering sovereign AI cloud – a cloud that operates exclusively within a country,” said Westfall.

“More and more countries are going to say when it comes to gen AI, we want all that information, all that data stored within the country.”

In April, Oracle said it would invest more than $8 billion in Japan over the next 10 years to grow cloud computing and AI infrastructure.

Oracle and Nvidia in March announced they will be partnering up to deliver sovereign AI solutions to customers around the world.

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How working for Big Tech lost ‘dream job’ status

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How working for Big Tech lost 'dream job' status

Despite blockbuster earnings from giants such as Alphabet and Microsoft, layoffs continue to ripple through the tech industry.

Layoffs.fyi, a platform monitoring job cuts in the tech sector, recorded more than 263,000 job losses in 2023 alone. As of April, there have been more than 75,000 job losses in the industry so far in 2024.

“So instead of rewarding the growth that we saw [tech companies] all pursue years ago, they’re now rewarding profit,” said Jeff Shulman, professor at the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business. “And so the layoffs have continued. People have become used to them. Regrettably and sadly, it seems that the layoffs are going to be the new normal.”

Even though mass tech layoffs continue, the labor market still seems strong. The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, well above the Dow Jones estimate for a rise of 200,000, with the unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%.

According to Handshake, a popular free job posting site for college students and graduates, the tech layoffs have prompted new workers to seek other opportunities. The share of job applications from tech majors submitted to internet and software companies dropped by more than 30% between November 2021 and September 2023.

“Part of the reason why this is happening is because stability is such a major factor in students’ decisions around what types of jobs they apply to and what types of jobs they accept,” said Christine Cruzverga, chief education strategy officer at Handshake. “They’re looking at the headlines in the news and they’re paying attention to all of the layoffs that are happening in Big Tech, and that makes them feel unstable.”

Mass layoffs have eroded the shine of the tech industry, which is why workers are questioning whether getting a job in the tech industry should still be regarded as a “dream job.”

“For the people who are chasing … a tech dream job, I think keep your options open and be realistic,” said Eric Tolotti, senior partner engineer at Snowflake, who got laid off from Microsoft in 2023. “Don’t just focus on one company and feel like you have to get into that one company because it’s the dream.”

Watch the video to learn about tech workers’ sentiments, considerations for aspiring Big Tech employees, and more.

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Digital ad market is finally on the mend, bouncing back from the ‘dark days’ of 2022

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Digital ad market is finally on the mend, bouncing back from the 'dark days' of 2022

A view of Google Headquarters in Mountain View, California, United States on March 23, 2024. 

Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu | Getty Images

Advertising is so back.

After a brutal 2022, when brands reeled in spending to cope with inflation, and a 2023 defined by layoffs and cost cuts, the top digital advertising companies have started growing again at a healthy clip.

Meta, Snap and Google all reported first-quarter results this week, with revenue growth that exceeded analysts estimates and at rates not seen in at least two years. Their financials were primarily driven by improvements across their ad businesses.

The companies entered earnings season in a favorable position in that their numbers would be comparable to historically weak periods. But investors and analysts were cautious in their expectations, given the political and economic instability in various markets across the globe and the ongoing challenges posed by high consumer prices.

Meta, which was the first in the group to report results, put some fears to rest on Wednesday, showing a 27% jump in first-quarter revenue to $36.5 billion. For the Facebook parent, it was the strongest rate of expansion since 2021.

“When Meta was in its dark days two years ago, the company knew what they had to do to get back on track,” analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note after the earnings report. “To their credit, Meta defended the core.”

That dark era was defined by the combination of macroeconomic challenges and Apple’s iOS privacy change, which made it harder for social media companies to target users with ads. Meta lost two-thirds of its value in 2022 and was forced to dramatically cut headcount.

A smartphone is displaying Facebook with the Meta icon visible in the background.

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Meta responded by rebuilding its ad system, with the help of hefty investments in artificial intelligence, so it could deliver value to brands despite the roadblock imposed by Apple. The stock almost tripled in 2023.

While the company’s first-quarter results beat estimates across the board, the shares tanked on Thursday after CEO Mark Zuckerberg focused his post-earnings commentary on the many ways Meta is spending money in areas outside of advertising, notably the metaverse.

“We’ve historically seen a lot of volatility in our stock during this phase of our product playbook where we’re investing in scaling a new product but aren’t yet monetizing it,” Zuckerberg said on the earnings call late Wednesday.

The Bernstein analysts, who recommend buying the shares, said Meta’s ad revenues were led by strength in online commerce, gaming, entertainment and media, and that China-based ad demand “remained strong.” Meta has benefited from a surge in spending from Chinese discount retailers like Temu and Shein.

“Without sounding overly religious, you either believe in Zuck or you don’t, and we do,” the analysts wrote.

‘Incrementally positive’

Alphabet followed on Thursday, reporting ad revenue for the first quarter of $61.66 billion, up 13% from the year prior, with YouTube ad revenue jumping 21% to $8.09 billion. The company as a whole grew 15%, a rate last seen in 2022, and the stock shot up 10% on Friday, the sharpest rally since 2015.

During the quarterly call with investors, Alphabet finance chief Ruth Porat said the company is “very pleased” with the momentum of its ad businesses.

Analysts at Citi wrote in a note on Friday that the broader advertising environment is “clearly strengthening,” pointing to accelerating growth within Google Search and YouTube.

“We emerge from Q1 results incrementally positive on shares of Alphabet,” the analysts wrote, maintaining their buy recommendation.

Snap shares rocketed 28% on Friday after the company reported a 21% increase in revenue to $1.19 billion, the strongest growth in two years. In each of Snap’s past six quarters, sales either grew in single digits or declined.

The company said it’s seeing accelerating demand for its ad platform and benefiting from an improved operating environment, according to its investor letter.

Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a report on Friday that Snap delivered a “much-needed” beat, and that its ad stack is back on track. The analysts, who have a buy rating on the stock, said investors appear “most encouraged by the ad platform investments, which are showing increasing promise.”

Despite the rally, Snap shares are still down 14% for the year.

Investors will get a clearer picture of the digital ad market next week, with Pinterest reporting on Tuesday alongside Amazon, which has emerged as a giant in online ads. Reddit will follow on May 7, reporting earnings for the first time since the social media company’s initial public offering in March.

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