After what started as a hopeful year for tech policy, the 117th Congress is about to close out its term with many key efforts tabled.
Despite bipartisan support for antitrust reform targeting digital tech giants, a digital privacy framework and new guardrails for kids on the internet, lawmakers headed home without passing the hallmark bills of those issues. And the Senate has yet to vote to confirm the final nominee to fill out the Federal Communications Commission, leaving that agency incomplete for the entirety of the Biden administration so far.
Congress did pass the CHIPS and Science Act, which incentivizes domestic semiconductor manufacturing after shortages highlighted the risks of overseas production. It also included in the year-end spending package a bill that will raise funds for the antitrust agencies by raising merger filing fees on large deals, as well as a measure banning TikTok on government devices in light of national security concerns due to its ownership by a Chinese company.
And even when it comes to many of the bills that remain in limbo, progress this year shows significant headway. That’s the case with privacy legislation, where a bill proposed this year gained bipartisan support, passing out of a House committee with a near-unanimous vote. Still, it lacks the backing of the Senate Commerce Committee’s Democratic chair, Maria Cantwell of Washington, which is seen as critical to passing the legislation.
“Any privacy legislation has to be bipartisan,” said Craig Albright, vice president of U.S. government relations for enterprise software industry group BSA. “Senator Cantwell has to be part of the process. There’s no going around her, she will be one of the key leaders. But I think if the House can demonstrate continued progress, I think that that will create more of an environment for the Senate to be able to act.”
Albright added that the House committee leaders who championed the bill, Energy and Commerce Chair Frank Pallone, D-N.J., and Ranking Member Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., expected to become chair next year under Republican House control, proved with the panel vote “that substantively, you can come up with a bill that has broad bipartisan support.”
“I think that puts this next Congress in a stronger starting position than we’ve had before,” Albright said.
Lawmakers face a tougher landscape next year if they hope to pick up where they left off on tech reform. With Democratic control of the Senate and Republican control of the House in 2023, policy watchers stress that bipartisanship will be essential to make bills into law.
While that might dash hopes for most antitrust reforms, which though bipartisan are not generally supported by Republicans expected to lead the House and key committees, it could mean there’s still a chance for legislation on digital privacy, where both parties have stressed urgency despite years of failing to compromise on areas of disagreement.
Still, lawmakers who led aggressive antitrust proposals and other tech reforms have signaled they’ll continue to fight for those measures next year.
“This is clearly the beginning of this fight and not the end,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., whose bill barring online platforms from favoring their own services on their marketplaces failed to make it into year-end must-pass bills, said in a statement following the release of the spending package text. “I will continue to work across the aisle to protect consumers and strengthen competition.”
Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., said in a statement that while their Kids Online Safety Act, setting new guardrails for sites likely to be accessed by kids, and Open App Markets Act, imposing new regulations on app stores run by Apple and Google, did not make it into the spending bill, they are “resolved to reintroduce and pass this legislation in the next Congress.” The pair blamed the bills’ failure to advance on intense lobbying efforts by the tech industry against them.
A survey of congressional staffers by Punchbowl News found that while a majority of Capitol Hill respondents expect a less productive session in terms of passing meaningful legislation, the tech agenda is high up on the expected list of priorities. Punchbowl said that 56% of respondents anticipated action on bills targeting Big Tech, a percentage that was second only to those who expect to see action targeting inflation.
Tech regulation is Democrats’ top priority, according to Punchbowl, with 59% of respondents choosing it as one of their chief issues. Among lobbyists and business executives surveyed by Punchbowl, 55% predicted lawmakers could crack down on a major tech company, with TikTok coming out as the most likely target, followed by Facebook parent Meta.
And while it’s unlikely to result in new laws, House Republicans have signaled they’ll use their majority to focus on tech issues that have taken a backseat while Democrats held the gavels in both chambers. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, who’s expected to lead the House Judiciary Committee, signaled he’ll likely use that power to focus on tech companies’ relationships with Democratic politicians and allegations of bias and censorship by social media platforms.
Earlier this month he wrote to the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, demanding information about what he called “the nature and extent of your companies’ collusion with the Biden Administration.” He said the letters should serve as a formal request to preserve records related to the request.
Lawmakers are also likely to spend more time looking at crypto regulation, after the downfall of exchange FTX alleged fraud of its founder Sam Bankman-Fried thrust the industry into the limelight before Congress. Legislators have already considered some legislation targeting the industry, and incoming House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., has indicated that making a clearer regulatory framework for crypto is a priority.
One of the key questions lawmakers have wrestled with is who should be the agency in charge of overseeing the industry. That question has so far gone unanswered, with many industry players advocating for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission while some consumer advocates preferring the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is larger and better resourced. One prominent bipartisan bill in the Senate would put the CFTC in charge.
Just like in 2022, next year’s tech policy agenda will be subject to the whims of Congress, and could be especially susceptible if the country sees some level of economic downturn as many experts expect.
“Everybody has their desire to regulate tech. But I can’t help but wonder what that desire looks like, depending on the economic outlook of the United States in Q1 of 2023,” said James Czerniawski, senior policy analyst for technology and innovation at the Koch-backed advocacy group Americans for Prosperity, pointing to high interest rates and job cuts in the tech sector. “If we were to go and enter into a recession at some point in early next year, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility, that might go and rejigger priorities from Congress to more immediate things.”
Czerniawski said the push for regulation in tech seems to be based on an “assumption that tech is this thing that’s just immovable and going to be around for the test of time with these companies’ names attached to it. And, if anything, I think that the past year and change has shown that that’s not necessarily true.”
“I think that it’s pretty easy to beat up on Big Tech when they’re so successful and they’re pulling in record profits,” said Tom Romanoff, director of the technology project at the Bipartisan Policy Center think tank, which has received funding Amazon and Meta, according to recent donor disclosures. “It becomes a different equation when constituents and districts are upset because they got laid off in one of these very high paying jobs. And so I think if there is an economic downturn, the focus will shift to the economy.”
Romanoff added that certain global dynamics could also shift the focus away from increased tech regulation, such as if tensions escalate between China and Taiwan, where a large portion of semiconductors are currently produced. He said an event like that could cause a shift from an “internal focus of what these large companies mean for U.S. democracy, to kind of a national defense strategy — what does it mean in wartime to regulate an industry that is very much critical to any wartime industry.”
Still, Albright of BSA sees focus on the tech sector in Congress remaining high as concerns that have existed in the past are not going away.
“I think the economy will go up and down,” he said. “But the importance of tech policy issues will still be strong.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk wears a ‘Trump Was Right About Everything!’ hat while attending a cabinet meeting at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 24, 2025.
Carlos Barria | Reuters
Tesla shares slumped on Thursday, reversing course a day after the electric vehicle maker had its biggest gain on the market since 2013.
The stock dropped 7.3% to close at $252.40 and is now down 38% for the year, by far the biggest decline among tech’s megacap companies. That’s true even after the shares soared 23% on Wednesday, their second-sharpest rally on record.
President Donald Trump sent stocks up on Wednesday after announcing he would pause steep tariffs for many U.S. trading partners for 90 days to allow for negotiations. He set a minimum tariff rate of 10% while negotiations take place, but increased the tariff on China.
The whole market has whipsawed on President Trump’s changing plans, but Tesla has been particularly volatile, rising or falling by at least 5% on 19 different occasions this year.
The slump on Thursday came after the White House clarified that China’s tariff rate now stood at 145%. Beijing announced a reciprocal 84% tariff rate on U.S. goods, effective April 10. And the EU said it approved reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports.
As questions swirled about the type of deals the U.S. might strike, analysts at UBS, Goldman Sachs and Mizuho cut their price targets on Tesla, with all three citing margin impacts of Trump’s auto tariffs.
“We expect Tesla shares to be volatile but downward sloping considering the rich valuation (especially compared to the other Mag7 stocks) in a skittish market,” UBS wrote. The firm, which has a sell rating and price target of $190, said it also sees “demand concerns.”
Tesla has experienced brand deterioration, declining deliveries and has been hit with protests along with some criminal acts targeting its facilities and vehicles. CEO Elon Musk, one of President Trump’s top advisers, has drawn heat to Tesla for his work in the White House, where he has slashed government spending and the federal workforce. In Europe, he has faced opposition after endorsing Germany’s far-right AfD party.
Tesla sales declined across Europe in the first quarter, according to data from European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) and others.
The uncertainty and threat of new tariffs has been troubling for Tesla’s margin outlook. The company sources many parts and materials from suppliers in China, Mexico and elsewhere.
Sales growth for Tesla previously hinged on the company’s ability to manufacture and sell a high volume of its cars and battery energy storage systems throughout Europe and Asia. EV competition has ramped up on both continents recently, and now the company has to contend with highest costs imposed by levies.
Musk has taken his anger out on Trump’s top trade adviser Peter Navarro, calling him a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks” in social media posts earlier this week. However, Musk has shown his approval of the administration’s hard line against China, sharing a clip on X of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussing the matter.
“China’s business model is predicated on this incredible imbalanced economy, and exporting low-cost goods – and subsidized goods – to the rest of the world,” Bessent said in the clip.
Thursday’s selloff provided some relief to Tesla short sellers, who got hammered in the prior day’s rally. According to S3 Partners, Tesla short interest stood around 80.5 million shares, with a 2.8% float as of Thursday. It’s one of the top four equity shorts in terms of notional value, at $17.9 billion. Short sellers bet on the decline in a stock and lose money when it goes up.
Many sellers on Amazon count on China for manufacturing and assembly due to lower costs and established infrastructure – up to 70% of goods on Amazon come from China, according to Wedbush Securities. With nearly all imports from China being taxed a staggering 145% under the latest tariffs, Amazon sellers are having to decide whether to raise prices or absorb the vastly increased cost of importing their goods.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy on Thursday told CNBC that its vast network of third-party sellers will likely “pass the cost on” to consumers. He added that Amazon has done some “strategic forward inventory buys” and looked to renegotiate terms on some purchase orders to keep prices low.
Although Trump temporarily lowered tariffs on most countries to 10% on Wednesday, he doubled down on the huge tariffs on goods from China. Before the pause, average tariff rates under Trump were at the highest level since the Great Depression. The “reciprocal tariffs” were far steeper in regions like Southeast Asia. Tariffs also hit U.S. allies at unusual rates, including 20% on the European Union and previously announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Josianne Boisvert of Canadian-based Portable Winch Co. said she “was in a state of shock” when the tariffs were announced. For 20 years, the company has driven its products an hour to the U.S. border for duty-free shipping to American customers.
“We are questioning ourselves if we just move our focus to Europe,” Boisvert said.
CNBC talked to several Amazon sellers to find out how the new tariffs are having an impact on their decisions about prices and where to manufacture.
Price hikes
In a small warehouse in San Rafael, California, Dusty Kenney showed CNBC hundreds of boxes filled with her PrimaStella brand baby spoons, bento boxes and other kids products. Most of them arrived by sea from China before tariffs went into effect. Paying the added tariffs could put her out of business if they continue, she said.
“I will hold my prices for as long as I can and just absorb those tariffs because I’m already competing against those Chinese sellers that are undercutting me,” Kenney said. Although tariffs will also impact her Chinese-based competitors, the cost of doing business in the U.S. is far higher than in China.
“The administration would like people to think that this is a China problem, and that this is only hurting Chinese-based businesses and helping U.S.-based businesses. But I am a U.S.-based business, let’s be clear,” Kenney said. “Everything’s warehoused here, designed here, photographed here. All the income that comes from that stays here.”
Several sellers said they are considering raising prices if Trump’s tariffs stick around.
The vast majority of products on Amazon are sold by third-parties, but tariffs will also impact the company’s first-party brands.
That includes Amazon Basics-branded batteries, which compete against the likes of Duracell and Energizer by retailing at lower prices, said Jason Goldberg of the Publicis Groupe.
If Amazon has to raise the price of its own batteries, he said, “consumers are likely to have a preference for that well-known, familiar brand.”
The Seattle-based tech company is likely to wait at least six months before passing the tariff costs on to consumers, said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.
“The last thing they want to do is right away just pass it to the consumer, because you don’t know how transitory this is,” said Ives, adding that Amazon likely got “well ahead of this” by diversifying its supply chain outside of China.
That’s a strategy many Amazon sellers are also trying.
Amazon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Reviving U.S. manufacturing?
Some categories, like toys, have a long history of being manufactured in China and have thus far been exempt from tariffs. Jay Foreman started his career at a toy factory in Brooklyn, New York, about 40 years ago.
Manufacturing migrated to China more than 30 years ago because of, “not only a tremendous workforce, but they’ve invested in the infrastructure to create a toy manufacturing supply chain,” said Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun, which makes popular toys like Tonka Trucks, Care Bears, Lincoln Logs, Tinker Toys, and Lite-Brite.
“Whether you’re making a Tonka Truck in China or an Apple iPhone, they figured it out. They’re making quality product there and it’s tough to replicate elsewhere,” Foreman said.
Workers making Care Bears at a factory in Ankang, China.
CNBC
A lot of toy manufacturing moved to Vietnam, Mexico and India in the last five years because of China tariffs during Trump’s first term, Foreman said. But many of the toy factories there are also owned by Chinese companies, he said.
“So you’re sort of not escaping doing business with the Chinese,” Foreman said.
Other product categories, like teas, can’t easily be grown in the U.S. because of the climate.
“You need high humidity. Usually you need to be at a very high altitude. And those things only come together in certain parts of the world, ” said James Fayal, who runs high-energy tea brand Zest. With its green tea grown in coastal China and black tea in India, Fayal said he’ll have to pass the cost on to consumers because he doesn’t have a U.S. option.
For the brands that do manufacture in the U.S., the tariffs are creating a competitive advantage, those companies said.
“Put our products side by side to a competitor’s that is getting it overseas and it’s a night and day difference,” said Dayne Rusch of Vyper Industrial.
Vyper’s American-made stools and other shop equipment range in price from $350 to $650 while foreign-made alternatives can sell for less than $40, Rusch said.
At the National Hardware Show in March, Rusch said he was approached by many vendors asking if Vyper would consider manufacturing their products.
“There’s a huge opportunity for OEM manufacturers to start taking on more work from these people that were purchasing overseas and start making it here in the United States,” Rusch said.
The other sells that spoke to CNBC said it’s not financially feasible to relocate manufacturing to the U.S., even though it would allow them to avoid tariffs.
Some, like William Su, are moving manufacturing completely out of China, but staying overseas. Su set up a factory for his Teamson brand in Vietnam in reaction to China tariffs during Trump’s first term. He’s now in talks to manufacture in India. Trump hit both countries with significant tariffs last week, although they’re temporarily on hold.
Surrounded by her colorful baby products in California, Kenney told CNBC she considered opening her own manufacturing site.
“But that’s way over my head and out of my budget,” she said. “I would love to be able to manufacture in the U.S., but the truth is that the infrastructure is not there.”
With fewer factories in the U.S. than in China, Kenney said the cost to make her products domestically would be double or triple what she pays now.
“The people in China are hungry for the work,” she said. “They’ll get back to you right away. They make sure you get your shipments right away. They’re on it.”
Ending ‘de minimis’
There is one tariff announcement Trump made that’s a boon for U.S-based sellers like Kenney: closing the loophole known as “de minimis.”
This exemption allowed orders under $800 to avoid paying duties and taxes, and it’s what made absurdly low prices possible on direct-from-China sites like Temu, Alibaba and Shein. U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it processed more than 1.3 billion de minimis shipments in 2024, up from over 1 billion shipments in 2023.
Chinese sellers send small orders directly to U.S. customers to keep shipments under the $800 limit. U.S. sellers like Kenney don’t often qualify for de minimis because they ship in large quantities by the pallet, bringing products to their warehouses for quality checks instead of shipping straight to customers from Chinese factories.
Kenney used to sell her most popular product, a set of six silicone baby spoons, for $9.99 on Amazon. She’s reduced the price to $7.99 to compete with knockoffs that sell for as low as $3 on Temu.
“I’ve even had them rip off all of my photos and content that I’ve created and use it to sell their knockoff products,” Kenney said.
Dusty Kenney showed CNBC some of her PrimaStella brand kids feeding products she sells on Amazon, at her warehouse in San Rafael, California, on March 25, 2025.
Katie tarasov
Trump briefly put de minimis on hold in February. Days later, he temporarily reinstated the loophole because huge numbers of Chinese packages started piling up at U.S. post offices and customs offices ill-equipped to collect duties at such a fast pace.
The president on April 2 again announced that he was ending de minimis, effective May 2.
The White House said “adequate systems” are now in place to collect tariffs. It added that the loophole is being closed to target “deceptive” Chinese-based shippers who “hide illicit substances, including synthetic opioids, in low-value packages to exploit the de minimis exemption.”
Foreman of Basic Fun said his Tonka Truck goes through many layers of inspection before landing on Amazon.
“Anything that comes in on de minimis is not going through that safety scrutiny at all,” Foreman said. “Small packets that might have included a dress or some kind of tchotchke might have been stuffed with illegal drugs or things like that, might be counterfeit, might be bootlegs or knockoffs.”
Some Amazon sellers were benefiting from de minimis, particularly on its separate direct-from-China site Amazon Haul, which launched in November to compete with Temu. But killing de minimis will be a net positive for Amazon because it will hurt competitors like Temu, said Ives at Wedbush Securities.
De minimis is a “loophole that’s been tugging at Amazon really for the last 18 months,” Ives said.
What remains to be seen is how Trump’s tariffs will shift in coming weeks and what tariffs other countries will impose on U.S. goods. Those pose a risk for Amazon and its U.S. merchants that sell to foreign customers.
“It just has a cascading impact across the entire economy,” Goldberg of Publicis Groupe said. “Uncertainty is really bad for business, regardless of who wins or loses on any specific tariff.”
The technology giant, down 13% so far this month and down 23% since the start of 2025, surged more than 15% Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs and dropped the tariff on most countries to 10% to allow negotiations.
Semiconductor stocks reliant on production and manufacturing outside the U.S. also slumped, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF shedding nearly 5% after a 17% gain and its best session ever. While the sector has been excluded from the recent tariffs, chipmakers have sold off on fears that tariffs will eat away at demand and hurt the economy. Targeted tariffs also remain on the horizon.