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As we navigate the holiday season, baseball fans can do so with a rare gift already in place. After a frenetic offseason, the heavy lifting of the hot stove campaign is arguably already complete.

That’s almost unheard of for a sport that in recent years has seen offseasons move at a glacial pace, but so far, this has been a glorious one. Teams still have work to do. There are still middle-tier free agents to be signed, some of whom will play valuable roles for their new teams. And you never know when a splashy trade can alter the MLB landscape.

Still and all, with the elite free agents all locked up, it’s a perfect time to take a snapshot of the league as we head into the rest of the winter.

These numbers here are a rough cut. Underpinning them are the player projections from Steamer, available at Fangraphs.com. I’ve made tweaks to playing time forecasts on my depth charts in order to compile a basic win projection for each team, which I used as the basis for running 10,000 simulations of the 2023 schedule.

Some quick notes on what you see:

• Teams are ranked by projected wins, or the average wins during the simulations.

• Playoffs and title odds are self explanatory, except …

• I also ran simulations based on an estimate of how teams rated based on healthy versions of rosters as they stood before the start of free agency. Following the title odds is a number that tells us how much a team’s championship chances have gone up or down or not all based on its offseason work to date.

• I’ve estimated how much impact new acquisitions will have on the 2023 rosters, based on projected playing time. Since the numbers are rough, rather than sharing that calculation, I’ve simply indicated how a team ranks in terms of offseason “aggression.” This measure is as much about quantity as quality. That’s because …

• Teams also lose players. The “improvement” rank considers the net impact a team’s offseason machinations have had on its 2023 outlook. This is a rating on the moves alone, not on the team’s overall chances to be better, an assessment that should also consider aging patterns, improvement of young players, regression factors, etc.

Here are the top 30 teams in Major League Baseball, as of today.

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Lukas in hospital, won’t return to training horses

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Lukas in hospital, won't return to training horses

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Hall of Fame horse racing trainer D. Wayne Lukas has been hospitalized and will not return to training, Churchill Downs announced Sunday after speaking with members of his family.

Lukas’ family said the 89-year-old has battled a severe infection that has worsened and that he has declined an aggressive treatment plan to instead return home. His horses have been transferred to assistant trainer Sebastian “Bas” Nicholl.

“Wayne built a legacy that will never be matched,” Nicholl said. “Every decision I make, every horse I saddle, I’ll hear his voice in the back of my mind. This isn’t about filling his shoes – no one can. It’s about honoring everything that he’s built.”

Lukas is one of the most accomplished people in the history of the sport. His 15 Triple Crown victories are second only to good friend Bob Baffert, and Lukas has a record-tying 20 in the Breeders Cup.

He won the Kentucky Derby four times since 1988. His most recent victory in the Triple Crown came last year with Seize the Grey in the Preakness, his seventh — one short of Baffert’s record.

“Wayne is one of the greatest competitors and most important figures in Thoroughbred racing history,” Churchill Downs president Mike Anderson said. “He transcended the sport of horse racing and took the industry to new levels. The lasting impact of his character and wisdom, from his acute horsemanship to his unmatched attention to detail, will be truly missed. The enormity of this news is immense, and our prayers are with his family and friends around the world during this difficult time.”

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Pa. Gov. firm on no state money for new venues

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Pa. Gov. firm on no state money for new venues

LONG POND, Pa. — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro reaffirmed the state wouldn’t provide funding for any new sports arenas — a possibility that looms with the Eagles‘ lease set to expire in 2032 — and said there were conversations about bringing NASCAR to Philadelphia.

Shapiro, making an appearance Sunday at Pocono Raceway, said he would continue talking with Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie and the Rooney family in Pittsburgh about what — if anything — the NFL teams need when it comes to the state of their stadiums.

Pittsburgh’s Acrisure Stadium, the home of the Steelers, opened in 2001 while Lincoln Financial Field opened in 2003 in Philadelphia’s shared sports complex.

The Eagles do not own the Linc. The team will need to renew its lease or build a new stadium, and Lurie said during the lead-up to the Super Bowl that he was “torn” over the idea of replacing the stadium or staying put in the home where they raised their only two Super Bowl championship banners.

If a new stadium is proposed, it won’t come with state money — just as Shapiro said he would not provide when the NBA’s 76ers considered building a new arena last year. Sixers ownership did not ask for funds, and they decided to partner with Comcast Spectacor, their current landlord, to build a new arena in South Philadelphia.

“I’m very worried about the overall budget,” Shapiro said Sunday ahead of the scheduled NASCAR Cup Series race at the track. “I’m very worried about the overall economic situation given the federal cuts. You want to balance investing in tourism, investing in sports, investing in great arenas and facilities, with making sure that you’re also investing those dollars in things that Pennsylvanians need most.

“I will tell you that we want to make sure the Steelers, we want to make sure the Eagles, and all of our pro teams have outstanding places to play. That are welcoming for fans. That generate revenue. We’re going to continue to dialog with them about what they need and what’s possible.”

NASCAR expressed at least a cursory interest in adding to its recent string of offbeat race locations — everywhere from Mexico City to a temporary track inside the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum — and floated the idea of holding a race inside a Philadelphia stadium, Franklin Field. The site is traditionally home to the Penn Relays and college football.

“There’s some conversations,” Shapiro said. “First and foremost, we don’t want to do anything that undermines Pocono. … The more NASCAR the better. The more racing, the better. The more we can turn people on in communities that haven’t been to Pocono yet, to get excited about racing, and then make that trip to Pocono next year, the better. I want to see more NASCAR, more racing. I also just want to see more sports in general.”

Among the events in 2026, Pennsylvania will host the baseball All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park, the World Cup at the Linc and the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. The big year kicks off with the NFL draft in Pittsburgh next April.

“I worked my ass off to bring that to Pittsburgh, together with the Steelers,” Shapiro said. “I’m excited for them.”

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Dale Jr. wins debut as fill-in crew chief at Pocono

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Dale Jr. wins debut as fill-in crew chief at Pocono

LONG POND, Pa. — Dale Earnhardt Jr. might already be NASCAR’s most popular crew chief.

He’s certainly an undefeated one.

Pressed into unexpected service, Earnhardt called the shots for 18-year-old prospect Connor Zilisch in the No. 88 Chevrolet and they landed in victory lane Saturday in the second-tier Xfinity Series race at Pocono Raceway.

“We had a lot of things going our way,” Earnhardt said.

Earnhardt — who won NASCAR’s most-popular driver award 15 times — made a pit stop from his day job as team owner at JR Motorsports with normal crew chief Mardy Lindley suspended one race because of a lug nut infraction this month at Nashville.

Aside from his duties as team owner, Earnhardt also was at Pocono for his role on the Prime broadcast for the NASCAR Cup Series race Sunday.

“Lot of fun for me today,” Earnhardt said. “I missed the thrill of competition. I love broadcast, don’t get me wrong. But nothing compares to driving or just being part of the team. Being an owner doesn’t really deliver like this. This is a lot of fun.”

Earnhardt had his wife and two young daughters in tow with him as he made the celebratory walk to victory lane. Oldest daughter Isla Rose clutched the checkered flag while youngest Nicole Lorraine soaked in the scene from her dad’s arms.

The win continued a banner season for the NASCAR Hall of Fame driver – who swept two races at Pocono as a driver in 2014 – after JR Motorsports and reigning Xfinity Series champion Justin Allgaier qualified for the season-opening Daytona 500 and secured their Cup Series debut.

Earnhardt won two Daytona 500s, in 2004 and 2014, and 26 races overall.

His side hustle Saturday was made a bit easier with Zilisch behind the wheel. Zilisch, who turns 19 in July, raced to his second Xfinity victory of the season and third of his young career. He won his Xfinity debut last year at Watkins Glen International.

Earnhardt even pitched in during the race and tossed tires over the wall during pit stops.

Zilisch took the win down to the wire and finally passed Jesse Love with five laps left in the race. Love finished second.

“Dale Junior, not too bad on the box,” Zilisch said. “Pretty cool to have him up there. Getting him a 1-for-1 win as crew chief is pretty awesome.”

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