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The mathematical midpoint of the 2022-23 NHL regular season is close at hand, and some teams have already played in their 41st game. Sounds like the perfect time to take the temperature of each club against their preseason over/under point projections from Caesars Sportsbook.

How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors rates teams against one another — taking into account game results, injuries and upcoming schedule — and those results are tabulated to produce the list featured here.

Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the most recent edition, published Dec. 30. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.

Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 84.21%
Next seven days: @ SJ (Jan. 7), @ ANA (Jan. 8), vs. SEA (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 97
Points pace: 138.1

Boston heard its offseason critics (Too old! Too hurt! Too far gone!) and issued a resounding rebuttal as the biggest overachievers from their preseason pace and this season’s current Stanley Cup favorites. The Bruins show no signs of slowing either on the back of excellent goaltending, depth scoring (which could be tested with Jake DeBrusk out) and lock-down defense.

Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 71.79%
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Jan. 7), vs. NJ (Jan. 10), @ CBJ (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 117.7

Carolina riding an 11-game win streak into the New Year is just one reason they’re second — behind Boston — in outpacing preseason projections. The Hurricanes have it all, from a rookie phenom goaltender in Pyotr Kochetkov to balanced offense, solid special teams and dominant defense. No wonder Carolina has recorded just one regulation loss since late November.

Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 67.95%
Next seven days: vs. DET (Jan. 7), @ PHI (Jan. 8), vs. NSH (Jan. 11), @ DET (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 107.5
Points pace: 111.4

Toronto is surpassing preseason estimates that didn’t even account for a logjam of defensive injuries. The Leafs weathered that storm with a surprisingly strong goalie tandem, top performances from their best players and an enviable depth that has held up over time.

Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 68.29%
Next seven days: vs. LA (Jan. 7), vs. FLA (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 97
Points pace: 112.0

Vegas’ own couldn’t predict the impact new coach Bruce Cassidy, a healthy Jack Eichel and a steady Logan Thompson would have on their hometown team. The Golden Knights are opportunistic, with a depth of talent to complement the resiliency that’s propelled their climb up the standings.

Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 64.47%
Next seven days: vs. TB (Jan. 6), vs. VAN (Jan. 8), @ DET (Jan. 10), @ BUF (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 88.5
Points pace: 105.7

Winnipeg is thriving well beyond preseason expectations under new defensive-minded coach Rick Bowness, who has molded his team into one of the league’s stingiest clubs. That kept the Jets soaring through injuries, and several players are eyeing a return in early 2023. That could put Winnipeg even further ahead.

Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 65.38%
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Jan. 7), @ CAR (Jan. 10)
Preseason O/U: 89.5
Points pace: 107.2

New Jersey steamrolled its way through the league — and past their projected points pace — with 21 wins in 26 games to start the season. The Devils have cooled since, and they’re one of the most impressive overachievers from preseason estimates. New Jersey getting healthy in the coming weeks could help them surge back up league standings.

Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 65.00%
Next seven days: vs. FLA (Jan. 8), @ NYI (Jan. 10), @ NYR (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 93.5
Points pace: 106.6

Dallas couldn’t help hustling past preseason projections with Jason Robertson leading the charge. Robertson’s line with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski has been among the league’s best, and the Stars’ veterans have shined in unexpectedly strong complementary roles. Dallas has rightly earned its reputation as a potential team to beat this season.

Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 66.22%
Next seven days: @ WPG (Jan. 6), vs. CBJ (Jan. 10), vs. VAN (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 108.6

Tampa Bay might have slipped off track during an early-season slump. Instead, the Lightning bounced back to begin outkicking their own projected preseason coverage. Brayden Point becoming one of the NHL’s hottest scorers helps, and Victor Hedman has been terrific. Tampa Bay looks increasingly more like the team that repeated as Stanley Cup champions.

Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 62.50%
Next seven days: @ NJ (Jan. 7), vs. MIN (Jan. 10), vs. DAL (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 101
Points pace: 102.5

New York is sticking closest to its preseason pace. But will that hold true in the second half? December was the Rangers’ best month to date which could foreshadow an improved New York team moving into that overachiever category.

Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 62.16%
Next seven days: @ BUF (Jan. 7), vs. STL (Jan. 8), @ NYR (Jan. 10), @ NYI (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Points pace: 101.9

Minnesota’s lackluster October and early November put them off their predicted pace. But the Wild have evolved into a better team since then, one that could easily meet — or jump ahead of — those preseason projections, especially if Kirill Kaprizov (tremendous) and Marc-Andre Fleury (resurgent) continuing leading the way.

Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 60.98%
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Jan. 6), vs. CBJ (Jan. 8), @ PHI (Jan. 11)
Preseason O/U: 96.5
Points pace: 100.00

Washington’s streak through December has evened them out with the preseason odds after they were well behind earlier this season. Continued strong play could have the Capitals pushing their pace even higher. Washington boasts just one regulation loss in its last 13 games, a budding young goaltender in Charlie Lindgren and a bonafide superstar for the ages in Alex Ovechkin. Everything suddenly feels more possible for Washington this season.

Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 61.11%
Next seven days: @ OTT (Jan. 7), @ MTL (Jan. 9), @ BUF (Jan. 10), @ BOS (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 79.5
Points pace: 100.2

Seattle is in the opposite of a sophomore slump. Rather, the Kraken are one of this season’s great surprises, on the ice and in challenging their projected odds after a rough freshman showing. Seattle’s dominant offense has hidden some deficiencies in goal, but the Kraken are on pace towards an inaugural playoff berth come spring.

Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 57.89%
Next seven days: @ ARI (Jan. 8), vs. VAN (Jan. 10)
Preseason O/U: 100.5
Points pace: 94.9

Pittsburgh’s penchant towards feast-or-famine has put them slightly off the mark. Case in point: a seven-game win streak through December bleeding into losing six of seven. The Penguins can recalibrate by getting more out of their bottom six and wrangling consistent goaltending from Casey DeSmith while Tristan Jarry deals with a lower-body injury.

Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 59.52%
Next seven days: @ VGK (Jan. 7), vs. EDM (Jan. 9), vs. SJ (Jan. 11)
Preseason O/U: 94
Points pace: 97.6

Los Angeles is lucky Pheonix Copley stepped up last month. If he hadn’t, the Kings might have glided off their above-average pace. L.A. got there without even one point-per-game forward, either. The Kings have a by-committee approach starting with solid defensive details, a depth of contributions and now, consistent work from Copley between the pipes.

Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 55.41%
Next seven days: @ EDM (Jan. 7), vs. FLA (Jan. 10), @ CHI (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 112.5
Points pace: 90.9

Colorado has tumbled away from their projected points pace. That can happen when a lineup is decimated by injury. The Avalanche will slowly get healthier — Nathan MacKinnon‘s recent return was a welcome boost — but Colorado can’t wait for everyone to be healthy to start stringing some wins together. The Central Division is too good.

Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 55.56%
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Jan. 7), vs. PHI (Jan. 9), vs. SEA (Jan. 10), vs. WPG (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 79
Points pace: 91.1

Buffalo lost its way during an eight-game slide in November, but the Sabres’ have rebounded to trend above preseason estimates. And that’s no fluke, either. Buffalo leads the league in goals per game (3.94), has the second-ranked power play (28.2%) and a blossoming superstar in Tage Thompson. Reaching the postseason this season is no pipe dream for the Sabres.

Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 57.50%
Next seven days: @ CGY (Jan. 6), vs. DAL (Jan. 10), vs. MIN (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Points pace: 94.3

New York has predictably hummed right along with its preseason expectations. After all, the Islanders were mostly banking on in-house improvements driving their playoff hopes. The stacked Metropolitan won’t make it an easy run, but New York is benefitting from excellent goaltending and averaging 3.16 goals per game in support that could keep them above that projected curve.

Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 55.13%
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Jan. 6), @ CHI (Jan. 8), @ STL (Jan. 10), @ STL (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 103
Points pace: 90.4

Calgary was anticipated to be a Pacific powerhouse. The Flames’ offseason makeover caused some unexpected turbulence though — as did Jacob Markstrom‘s early struggles — and Calgary has operated below its projected pace. However, the Flames’ more recent bursts of consistency could have them back on track before spring.

Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 54.17%
Next seven days: vs. FLA (Jan. 6), @ TOR (Jan. 7), vs. WPG (Jan. 10), vs. TOR (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Points pace: 88.8

Detroit has bested the bookmakers’ predictions so far after an aggressive offseason that has paid early dividends. Ville Husso is top 20 among league starters in save percentage (.908) and goals-against average (2.86), Dominik Kubalik and David Perron have added needed offensive depth, and overall, the Red Wings are committed to better team defense. That’s how Detroit will keep exceeding expectations, too.

Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 55.00%
Next seven days: vs. COL (Jan. 7), @ LA (Jan. 9), @ ANA (Jan. 11)
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 90.2

Edmonton’s preseason outlook didn’t account for Jack Campbell‘s bafflingly poor play or the quick loss of Evander Kane to a scary wrist injury. So now the inconsistent Oilers have not only fallen off pace, but are barely holding a playoff spot. Something’s got to change for the Oilers to get on track.

Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 54.05%
Next seven days: @ WSH (Jan. 6), @ OTT (Jan. 9), @ TOR (Jan. 11), @ MTL (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Points pace: 88.6

Nashville caught oddsmakers’ attention despite that first-round playoff sweep last spring. But the Predators haven’t reached predicted heights, even with Filip Forsberg and his eight-year extension locked in. Nashville is bottom-five in scoring (2.63 goals per game) and top-tier skaters like Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen aren’t producing as expected. Getting back to the postseason means punching up their totals — fast.

Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.56%
Next seven days: @ MTL (Jan. 7), @ MIN (Jan. 8), vs. CGY (Jan. 10), vs. CGY (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 94.5
Points pace: 86.2

St. Louis is markedly below their expected pace — but hey, it could be worse. The Blues went from bad early on to showing flashes of excellence. But now they’re operating with Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko on IR. How St. Louis responds to another bout of adversity (can more role players step up?) could tell the true tale of their season.

Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 48.72%
Next seven days: @ DET (Jan. 6), @ DAL (Jan. 8), @ COL (Jan. 10), @ VGK (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 106.5
Points pace: 79.9

Florida is neck-and-neck with Columbus for the dubious honor of lagging furthest behind their preseason points pace. The Panthers insist there’s still time to right the ship, and doing so would take a combination of effort, health, increased offense and consistent goaltending.

Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 51.32%
Next seven days: vs. SEA (Jan. 7), vs. NSH (Jan. 9), @ ARI (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 84.5
Points pace: 84.2

Ottawa’s active offseason didn’t move the needle much for the sportsbooks — and the Senators have fallen right in line with their projected pace. Ottawa’s injury issues — particularly on the blue line — haven’t helped matters, but lately the Senators look more cohesive. That’s led to more consistent victories and a pattern that might have Ottawa ending the campaign as an overachiever if it keeps up.

Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 48.68%
Next seven days: @ WPG (Jan. 8), @ PIT (Jan. 10), @ TB (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 92.5
Points pace: 79.8

Vancouver’s underperformance isn’t necessarily so glaring when taken as a result of all the off-ice drama. There was preseason drama around Bruce Boudreau’s long-term status, questionable contract negotiations and what could be expected of Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. Turns out, that was the tip on the iceberg on Vancouver’s quandaries. We’ll see how team president Jim Rutherford & Co. approach trade season to set the Canucks up for more future success.

Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 42.31%
Next seven days: vs. STL (Jan. 7), vs. SEA (Jan. 9), vs. NSH (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 71.5
Points pace: 69.4

Montreal has regressed from a surprisingly hot start to be just a bit behind its preseason pace. But the Canadiens continue to slip. Montreal was outscored 26-8 on a recent five-game skid, has one regulation win since Dec. 1 and too many passengers all around. That formula won’t keep Montreal ahead of its curve.

Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 47.44%
Next seven days: vs. TOR (Jan. 8), @ BUF (Jan. 9), vs. WSH (Jan. 11)
Preseason O/U: 73.5
Points pace: 77.8

Philadelphia is, essentially, what the oddsmakers thought they’d be. Nothing wrong with that. The Flyers will glide their way into trade season as a team looking to deal players, and see where that takes them. Is it a rebuild? A retool? A lottery win for the No. 1 overall pick? Time will tell.

Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 32.43%
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Jan. 7), @ WSH (Jan. 8), @ TB (Jan. 10), vs. CAR (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 81.5
Points pace: 53.2

Columbus’ season has defied even the oddsmakers’ relatively humble projections. The Johnny Gaudreau bump was washed out by a tidal wave of injuries holding the Blue Jackets under water. Spotty netminding and averaging the second-highest shots against per game (35.3) is a bad combination, too. Columbus’ goal should be staying competitive in the second half.

Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 41.89%
Next seven days: @ CHI (Jan. 6), vs. PIT (Jan. 8), vs. SJ (Jan. 10), vs. OTT (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 63.5
Points pace: 68.7

Arizona is on pace now to exceed preseason projections — for which Karel Vejmelka and his excellent play in net deserve credit — but how long will that last? And could that margin actually grow even further? The Coyotes have been surprisingly competitive until now, and if Jakob Chychrun remains on the team — and remains healthy — Arizona should have a solid outlook on the rest of this season.

Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 39.74%
Next seven days: @ ANA (Jan. 6), vs. BOS (Jan. 7), @ ARI (Jan. 10), @ LA (Jan. 11)
Preseason O/U: 73
Points pace: 65.2

San Jose has stumbled off its preseason pace, but perhaps by a lesser margin than they might have if not for Erik Karlsson‘s career year. Now, with the Sharks projected to be dealing players away come trade season — and Karlsson in the mix as potentially on the move — San Jose’s fall off track could become more acute.

Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 33.33%
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Jan. 6), vs. BOS (Jan. 8), vs. EDM (Jan. 11)
Preseason O/U: 80
Points pace: 54.7

Anaheim wasn’t expected to be a playoff contender. And now the Ducks — by virtue of earning only three regulation victories through their first 38 games — are right there with Florida and Columbus as slinking furthest off their preseason points pace. A silver lining? The Ducks’ odds in the Connor Bedard Sweepstakes have greatly improved from a few months ago.

Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 27.03%
Next seven days: vs. ARI (Jan. 6), vs. CGY (Jan. 8), vs. COL (Jan. 12)
Preseason O/U: 65.5
Points pace: 44.3

Chicago is more all-in with its rebuild/fall for Connor Bedard than the sportsbooks thought. There were low expectations for the Blackhawks going into this season, and still they’re top five among teams tracking away from that preseason pace. But given what Chicago is trying to accomplish, maybe that’s a good thing?

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What gives MLB’s best teams their edge? Every current playoff contender’s biggest strength

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What gives MLB's best teams their edge? Every current playoff contender's biggest strength

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are battling this weekend for a lead in the National League East that has gone back and forth between the two clubs, with the Mets opening up a 5½-game lead June 12 before losing six in a row to the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves and drawing the Phillies back in.

The Braves were supposed to be part of this mix but have stumbled through a terrible first half, leaving this as a two-team race. While Mets and Phillies fans are bitter rivals, it’s been a long time since the two teams have clashed for a division crown. Even last season, when both teams joined the Braves in the playoffs, the Mets were never really in the division race, getting no closer in the second half than five games back in the final week.

The Mets and Braves tied for the division title with 101 wins in 2022, but the Phillies finished 14 games behind, only to get hot in the postseason and reach the World Series. The Phillies were bad for a long time before that, the Mets mostly bad, so we go back to 2008 to find the most recent heated Mets-Phillies division race. The Mets were a half-game up with nine to play, but they finished 3-6, while the Phillies went 6-2 to win the division by three games — and went on to win the World Series.

What has put both teams in this position? Let’s look at the biggest strength so far for the Mets, Phillies and all the teams in the majors with records currently above .500 this season, starting with the National League.

National League

Record: 47-30 (1st in NL West)

Biggest strength: Offense

Just like the Cubs, the Dodgers might have the best offense in franchise history, league-adjusted. They lead the majors in runs scored and their wRC+ of 124 would be their highest ever. (If we remove pitchers from the equation, the top mark goes to the 1953 Brooklyn club at 126.) This is nothing new, as the Dodgers have ranked first or second in the NL in runs scored each season since 2018.

We know all about the remarkable exploits of Shohei Ohtani and his chance to become the first player to score 160 runs since Lou Gehrig, but one big key of late has been Max Muncy — now wearing glasses. Through April 29, Muncy was hitting .180 with no home runs in 28 games. He wore glasses for the first time on April 30 and homered that night. He’s hitting .281/.420/.541 since donning the eyewear, giving the Dodgers yet another lethal bat.


Record: 46-30 (1st in NL East)

Biggest strength: Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez

On paper and in the standings, the Phillies match up with the Mets. When you dig into the numbers, however, the Mets should be ahead of them. Even with their recent slide, the Mets have a plus-60 run differential, with the Phillies at plus-42. The Mets are fifth in the majors in bullpen win probability added, the Phillies way down at 23rd as they’ve struggled with their closer situation. Aaron Nola is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and on the IL. Even Bryce Harper has been a little down at the plate and is now injured as well.

But the Phillies do have Wheeler and Suarez (and Cristopher Sanchez has been good, too). Wheeler is doing his usual thing, once again on the short list for best pitcher in baseball. At 35, he’s not only showing no signs of age, but has a career-high strikeout rate of 32.5%. Suarez, meanwhile, is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA in starts after beginning the season on the IL. After giving up seven runs in his first start, he has been in lockdown mode, with a 1.17 ERA across eight starts, including five of seven innings. Suarez has had runs like this before, including a 2.76 ERA in the first half last season that earned him an All-Star spot.


Record: 45-30 (1st in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Offense. And defense. AKA: Pete Crow-Armstrong

How good has the Cubs’ offense been? They’re averaging 5.36 runs per game, second in the majors. The last time they came close to that was 5.31 in 2008. The last time they averaged more per game was 1935, when five regulars hit over .300. If we adjust for league context, however, the 2025 Cubs have the highest wRC+ in franchise history since 1900. This is an excellent offense.

How good has the Cubs’ defense been? They’re second in the majors in both defensive runs saved and Statcast’s fielding run value.

Leading the way on both sides of the ball has been the thrilling, the wonderful, the breathtaking Pete Crow-Armstrong. How good has the 23-year-old center fielder been? With his defense, power and speed, he has already posted 4.3 WAR though 74 games, a season-long pace of 9.5. Only four Cubs position players have topped that mark: Rogers Hornsby in 1929 (10.6), Sammy Sosa in 2001 (10.3), Ernie Banks in 1959 (10.2) and Ron Santo in 1967 (9.8).

The analytics say he can’t keep this up, that pitchers will figure how to exploit his league-worst chase rate. Except they haven’t yet (see the 452-foot home run he just hit a few days ago). In the Statcast metrics, he ranks in the 100th percentile in fielding value, 99th percentile in baserunning value, and 89th percentile in batting value. Call that the triple crown of awesomeness.


Record: 45-31 (2nd in NL East)

Biggest strength: Starting pitching

The Mets’ big three — Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso — have all been outstanding, with Soto back on track after a slow start, but the rotation has keyed the team’s strong start, leading the majors with a 3.03 ERA. They’ve done it even without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who haven’t pitched in the majors yet this season. Leading the way have been Kodai Senga (1.47 ERA), David Peterson (2.60) and Clay Holmes (3.04). Kudos to Mets management for signing Holmes as a free agent and converting him from reliever to starter, a gutsy move that has paid huge dividends.

Aside from likely regression, the rotation depth will now be tested. Senga just injured his hamstring and might miss a month. Tylor Megill is out with an elbow sprain and could miss up to five weeks. Montas’ rehab clock ends Sunday, but he got pounded in four Triple-A starts for Syracuse, with a 13.19 ERA and just eight strikeouts in 14⅓ innings. He looks unusable for the rotation right now, so the Mets might have to bury him in the bullpen. Manaea made a rehab start for Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, so he’s at least getting closer. The Mets might also have a weapon waiting in the minors if needed in Jonah Tong, who has a 1.97 ERA in Double-A while averaging 14.6 K’s per nine.


Record: 42-34 (2nd in NL West)

Biggest strength: Front-line pitching

The Giants are third in the majors in ERA and fifth in runs allowed per game, but have relied on a relatively small group of pitchers to achieve that: starters Logan Webb (7-5, 2.49 ERA) and Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA) and relievers Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller (all with sub-2.00 ERAs). Hayden Birdsong has also moved to the rotation from the bullpen and has a 3.25 ERA.

Not surprisingly, the Giants receive a lot of help from their home park: Their ERA is 2.89 at home and 3.72 on the road. That road ERA is still seventh best in the majors, but the Giants have certainly thrived at home, where they are 23-14 despite averaging fewer than four runs per game. Acquiring Rafael Devers will help the offense, but the pressure will remain on the pitching to win these low-scoring games. The Giants are 18-15 in one-run games, leading the majors in one-run games played and one-run wins — with 10 such wins coming when they’ve scored three or fewer runs.


Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Position player durability

OK, this is kind of a weird one, but we’re trying to figure out how the Brewers are once again succeeding. Their bullpen has been solid, but certainly has had a few more leaks than the past two seasons, when the pen was dominant, especially in win probability added. They’re good on the bases, but near the bottom of the league in home runs. So let’s go with lineup stability.

The Brewers have played 76 games, and seven players have played at least 70 of them. That’s pretty remarkable in today’s game, when staying healthy sometimes feels like half the battle. Other than Joey Ortiz, they have all produced positive WAR — and since the Brewers are not using their bench much or resorting to call-ups, they’re avoiding the “bad” plate appearances that drag down some lineups. No single player is tearing it up, but having seven slightly better than average hitters might be enough to win a wild card.


Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Rotation stability

The Cardinals have been a mild surprise, even without any specific thing standing out. Is anybody on offense killing it? Not really. Brendan Donovan is hitting over .300 and has a bunch of doubles, and Ivan Herrera is hitting over .300 and has an OPS over .900, but he missed a month. Has the bullpen been shutting opponents down? Not exactly, no. Closer Ryan Helsley has five blown saves. Is the defense great? Maybe, with Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn, but the teamwide metrics don’t stand out. Is the rotation dominating? Hardly. The rotation is 18th in ERA.

But … the rotation has been stable, with the top five guys all making at least 14 starts. They’ve needed only four starts from outside those five, two of those coming in doubleheaders and a third resulting from a doubleheader. This is a change from last year, when eight pitchers made at least six starts and especially from the 91-loss season of 2023, when only Miles Mikolas made more than 21 starts. Similar to the Brewers not using many bad position players, the Cardinals at least haven’t had to deploy any bad starters — and that keeps you in games.


Record: 40-35 (3rd in NL West)

Biggest strength: The big three (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill)

The Padres are kind of walking a tightrope right now, with several key performers either injured (Michael King, Yu Darvish) or not providing much value (Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts). Closer Robert Suarez has even had two catastrophic five-run blowups in save situations. Arraez is hitting .280, but it’s an empty .280 — he’s posting a career-low OBP with poor defensive metrics and he has been worth 0.1 WAR. Bogaerts is heading for a third straight season where his OPS+ will drop since he signed with the Padres, so he has been worth just 0.8 WAR (at least his defense has been solid).

While Gavin Sheets has stepped up in the DH role, the Padres’ lineup otherwise lacks depth: Ten different players have batted at least 10 times and have negative WAR. The Padres will no doubt look to address this at the trade deadline, but with Arraez and Bogaerts not major contributors, that puts all the pressure on Machado, Tatis and Merrill — and Merrill is currently on the concussion IL. Tatis might be the focal point here: He had a huge April with eight home runs and 1.011 OPS, slumped in May (.184 batting average, .626 OPS) and has been better in June. Let’s just say it would be beneficial for the April Tatis to show up the rest of the way.


Record: 39-37 (4th in NL Central)

Biggest strength: A young rotation finally emerging

The Reds have come up with several talented young pitchers in recent years, but have had issues keeping them healthy or seeing them productive in the same season. So far, however, the Reds’ rotation ranks third in Baseball-Reference WAR, behind only the Phillies and Royals, with Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.84 ERA in 12 starts) perhaps on his way to a breakout season and Nick Lodolo on his way to a career high in games started and innings.

They’ll need to get Hunter Greene healthy, though. Greene tied Chris Sale for the NL lead with 6.2 bWAR last season and was on his way to a similar campaign (2.72 ERA in 11 starts) until he missed two weeks with a groin strain, returned to make three starts, and then landed back on the IL with another groin strain and a sore back that required an epidural. Veteran Wade Miley is filling in for Greene, and the options beyond him appear limited, so getting Greene back will be a must in the second half.


Record: 38-37 (4th in NL West)

Biggest strength: Offensive depth

After leading the majors in runs scored in 2024, the Diamondbacks are once again averaging more than five runs per game, one of just four teams above that mark. Leading the way: Corbin Carroll, having a bounce-back season more in line with his rookie numbers from 2023 except with even more power; Ketel Marte, with an OPS over .900; and slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who has 24 home runs. Eight of the nine regulars have an OPS+ over 100, and the top two bench guys are solid-average as well.

The problem: They might need the offense to be even better. Corbin Burnes is out for the season, and Merrill Kelly has been the team’s only other consistent starter with Zac Gallen‘s ERA on the wrong side of 5 and Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez getting hit hard. Outside of Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks, the bullpen has been terrible, ranking last in the majors in win probability added. The Diamondbacks will have some tough decisions at the trade deadline and will be the most interesting team to watch, with Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, Miller, Beeks and Josh Naylor all heading to free agency.

American League

Record: 48-29 (1st in AL Central)

Biggest strength: Tarik Skubal

The Detroit offense has been much improved, ranking fifth in the majors in runs per game after finishing 19th last season. On defense, the versatility of multiple players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry helps manager AJ Hinch. Still, the clear strength here is reigning Cy Young Award winner Skubal — who might be on his way to becoming the first repeat winner in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

Skubal began the season with two so-so starts and lost both those games, but since then he’s 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio of 107-to-8 — yes, that’s eight walks in his past 13 starts. The Tigers are 11-2 in those games, with the two losses a 10th-inning defeat and a 1-0 finish. When Skubal starts, the Tigers usually win.

Because of Skubal’s excellence, the Tigers rank third in the majors in rotation ERA. Still, that probably overrates their depth, as Hinch has been investing heavily in openers such as Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton of late, with only Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize remaining on regular rotation. With Jackson Jobe done for the year with Tommy John surgery, Skubal’s importance ramps up even higher.


Record: 44-32 (1st in AL West)

Biggest strength: Late-game bullpen

Houston’s offense has actually been pretty solid after a poor April — even without Yordan Alvarez — and the 1-2 duo of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez has been dominant, but the back end of the bullpen has been the key for the team’s surge into first place.

It begins with closer Josh Hader. After a homer-prone first season with the Astros in 2024 in which he allowed 12 home runs in 71 innings and lost eight games, Hader is 5-1 and a perfect 18-for-18 in save opportunities. Setting him up are Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa, all with sub-3.00 ERAs. Shawn Dubin has a sub-2.00 ERA in more limited action. Overall, Houston ranks fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA.

In high-leverage situations, the bullpen has been even better, with the lowest OPS in the majors, holding batters to a .146/.233/.236 line according to TruMedia data. That performance has helped the Astros to a 14-7 record in one-run games and a 5-0 mark in extra innings.

Is the pen this good? Hader and Abreu have strong track records. That’s less true for King, Okert and Sousa — but nothing in their numbers screams fluke, as they’ve combined for 109 strikeouts and just 18 walks. Veteran Okert, 33, has been the biggest surprise. Signed as a free agent for just $1.2 million, he entered 2025 with a career walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings; suddenly he’s Greg Maddux and has just six walks in 34⅔ innings (with 44 strikeouts). Other than Abreu, the other three setup guys are left-handed, but that hasn’t been an issue so far. This pen looks like the real deal.


Record: 43-32 (1st in AL East)

Biggest strength: Aaron Judge

For the first two months of 2025, the Yankees’ offense was clicking on all cylinders. Judge was leading the way with a historic start to his season, putting up numbers only Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth had matched over a full season. But he wasn’t the only one doing big damage. Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .347 through May 28, Trent Grisham cracked 12 home runs and had an OPS over 1.000 through May 12, and Ben Rice had an OPS over .900 as late as May 20.

The Yankees not only weren’t missing Juan Soto but were thriving without him. Unlike last season, when Soto was often the only major supporting cast member, Judge suddenly had multiple mashers around him.

Alas, what happens when Judge goes into a slump? During a recent six-game losing streak, Judge went 2-for-23 with 14 strikeouts and just a solo home run for his lone RBI, his average dropping from .392 to .366. The Yankees scored six runs and were shut out in three consecutive games, just the seventh time that has happened in franchise history.

It wasn’t just Judge. Goldschmidt, Grisham and Rice have all predictably regressed from their hot starts, leading to the concern: Can this lineup score enough runs if Judge isn’t superhuman all the time?


Record: 42-34 (2nd in AL East)

Biggest strength: Infield offense

The Rays are a balanced team without any single huge strength. They do lead the majors in stolen bases, but that’s primarily from two players: Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson (and Simpson is currently in the minors). Their overall baserunning is a strength, third in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, but that’s a small strength and hardly the reason they’ve surged after sitting five games under .500 on May 19. They’re a good defensive team, but they’ve had better defensive teams. The pitching? Good, but they’ve had better seasons in that area as well.

Let’s go with their overall offense from the four infield positions. The Rays rank third in the majors in OPS, third in home runs and third in runs from their infielders. First baseman Jonathan Aranda has been the best hitter in this group, having his breakout season at age 27 and in line for possible All-Star selection. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is doing his usual thing, with 15 home runs, and, most importantly, has remained healthy. Taylor Walls is the defensive wizard at shortstop, while Caballero splits time there in his utility role.

Then there’s Junior Caminero. Remember him? Last year’s hyped prospect doesn’t turn 22 until July and entered the season with just 213 plate appearances, but it feels as if everyone forgot about him heading into 2025 after he didn’t immediately tear up the majors as a rookie. He remains a flawed offensive player with an OBP just north of .300 and is on pace to break Jim Rice’s single-season record for grounding into double plays, but the power has arrived with 17 home runs — and he’s been red-hot of late, hitting .317/.389/.683 since May 23 with nine home runs and 28 RBIs in 26 games. That included a 4-for-5 game Wednesday as the Rays rallied from an 8-0 deficit to beat the Orioles 12-8. That sounds like the Rays team that made the playoffs five straight years from 2019 to 2023: scrappy, underrated and capable of beating you in different ways.


Record: 40-35 (3rd in AL East)

Biggest strength: Lowest strikeout rate in majors

We’re digging here to find somewhere the Jays excel. They are a very good defensive team with either Daulton Varsho or Myles Straw in center (Varsho is on the injured list at the moment), Andres Gimenez at second, and Ernie Clement at third. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is posting the best defensive metrics of his career. The pitching certainly hasn’t been a strength. They’ve been outhomered 101 to 77, so power hasn’t been their game. Indeed, the Jays are five games over .500 even though they’ve been outscored by 14 runs.

That makes them a hard team to read. They’re 7-13 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — and that’s usually a surefire indicator of a bad team. Good teams don’t get blown out more often than they blow out their opponents. The Jays have thus done well in close games, and one related cause might be their ability to put the bat on the ball. They do have five walk-off wins (as opposed to two walk-off losses) and they’re 5-2 in extra-inning contests. In the bigger picture, maybe the contact rate will eventually turn into more offense if they can turn more of those balls into extra-base hits (the Jays are just 17th in the majors in isolated power). With just nine home runs, Guerrero is certainly the primary guy to watch in this area.


Record: 40-37 (4th in AL East)

Biggest strength: Garrett Crochet

What, you expected this to say team chemistry or something? The promise of youth? No, with Rafael Devers in San Francisco and Alex Bregman still on the injured list, Crochet is the answer here. Where would this rotation be without him? Let’s do some math:

Crochet: 7-4, 2.20 ERA, 10-for-16 in quality starts

Other starters: 15-17, 5.04 ERA, 22-for-60 in quality starts

Now, maybe those “others” will improve. Tanner Houck, Sean Newcomb and Richard Fitts are a combined 0-9, and Houck is now on the IL, Newcomb is on the Athletics and Fitts is in the minors. Brayan Bello has been better his past few starts, but Boston is still looking for consistency from Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito. Even if the young position players start hitting better, the Red Sox are going to need more than just Crochet to stabilize the rotation.


Record: 38-36 (2nd in AL West)

Biggest strength: The Big Dumper

Here’s a stat that might surprise you: The Mariners are third in the majors in road OPS. Is this actually a good offensive team, only to have that good offense masked by playing half their games in a home park where offense goes to die? The Mariners are hitting .265/.345/.428 on the road, trailing only the Cubs and Yankees in OPS. At home, however, the numbers dip to .221/.300/.371 — 24th in the majors in OPS.

The Big Dumper is Cal Raleigh, and with the starting rotation struggling with injuries, the bullpen a little thin behind standout closer Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez more “meh” than awesome, Raleigh has felt like a one-man show at times. He leads the majors with 29 home runs, leads the AL with 63 RBIs, and trails only Judge in OPS. He has played in 73 of Seattle’s 74 games and does his best damage when he starts behind the plate: Twenty-seven of his 29 home runs have come as a catcher. The record for home runs by a primary catcher is Salvador Perez‘s 48 in 2021, but only 33 of those came as a catcher. The record for home runs hit while catching is Javy Lopez’s 42 in 2003. Raleigh’s 180 wRC+ currently sits second highest for a primary catcher, behind only Mike Piazza’s 183 in 1997.

All that undersells how Raleigh has propped up the Mariners. He’s been clutch as well, ranking in the top three in the majors in advanced metrics such as win probability added, situational wins added and championship WPA. Oh, and he’s hitting .257/.358/.614 at home. Judge might have MVP all but locked up already, but don’t tell that to the Big Dumper.

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Misiorowski perfect into 7th, sets rookie record

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Misiorowski perfect into 7th, sets rookie record

MINNEAPOLIS — Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers lost his bid for a perfect game in the seventh inning of a 17-6 win against the Minnesota Twins on Friday night.

After issuing a walk to Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner lofted a home run to the flower bed just past the right-field wall, ending Misiorowski’s run of hitless innings to start his big league career at 11, the first starter to do that since 1900.

“I think this is exactly how I ever dreamed of it coming along,” the 23-year-old rookie said. “It’s exciting.”

He threw five no-hit innings against St. Louis on June 12, but left in the sixth with cramping in his right calf and quadriceps.

“I felt calmer and ready to go compared to the first one,” Misiorowski said. “Nerves were going pretty heavy on the first one, so it’s good to finally feel the feet under you.”

The 6-foot-7 right-hander struck out six with a fastball topping out at 102.1 mph and a slider and changeup in the mid-90s.

“It’s important to prove to yourself as a young player that you belong in the big leagues and taste success and realize that you do belong here,” said Christian Yelich, who had a career-high eight RBIs. “He should believe he’s a really good major league pitcher because he is. All the nights probably aren’t going to go as smooth as the first two, but you see the ability.

“He’s got a chance to something special every night he goes out there.”

Misiorowski is the only big leaguer since 1900 to have more wins (2) than hits allowed (1) in his first two career starts, according to OptaSTATS.

“He was attacking, but mixing, too,” manager Pat Murphy said. “It wasn’t just heaters.”

After seeing four straight pitches of at least 100.8 mph from Misiorowski, Willi Castro twisted like a corkscrew and dropped to the ground as he struck out on a 95.5 mph slider in the first inning.

“You don’t see a guy throwing a slider 95, 96,” Castro said. “It’s really hard to pick up.”

Misiorowski threw 29 pitches of 100 mph or higher and had 12 of 101 mph or more. Since tracking started in 2008, the only starting pitchers to throw more in a game at 101 mph and above are Hunter Greene (33 on Sept. 17, 2022; 21 on March 30, 2023; 18 on July 26, 2022; and 13 on April 16, 2022) and Jordan Hicks (on July 12, 2022), according to Major League Baseball.

After the homer by Wallner, Misiorowski was pulled for reliever Nick Mears and left to a standing ovation. He threw 86 pitches, 60 for strikes, and departed with Milwaukee leading 8-2.

The Brewers scored five runs in the top of the seventh, a long time for starter to sit in the dugout, but Misiorowski was adamant about going back to the mound.

“He said, ‘Yes I’m getting toward the end, but I want to challenge myself,'” Murphy said. “It was a good time to have him do that.”

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Suarez, managers suspended for Padres-L.A. feud

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Suarez, managers suspended for Padres-L.A. feud

LOS ANGELES — San Diego Padres closer Robert Suarez was suspended for three games and fined an undisclosed amount Friday for intentionally hitting Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers with a pitch during the NL West rivals’ contentious meeting Thursday night.

Suarez will appeal the suspension, keeping him eligible to play for San Diego on Friday night against Kansas City. He did not pitch in the Padres’ 6-5 loss.

Padres manager Mike Shildt and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts also received one-game suspensions and undisclosed fines for their roles in the brouhaha that occurred in both halves of the ninth inning during the Padres’ 5-3 victory at Dodger Stadium.

“I support it,” Roberts said about the league’s disciplinary decision. “I think that obviously I never want to make the game about the managers. It shouldn’t be. It should be about the players and winning, so last night, both managers are protecting their teams, and it just unfortunately got to the point that we became the focus, and that’s not the way it should be.”

Both managers were ejected in the top of the ninth after they ran onto the field and bumped into each other during a vociferous argument that almost got even more physical before their players and assistant coaches intervened.

Shildt believed Dodgers reliever Jack Little intentionally hit Fernando Tatís Jr. in the right hand with a pitch, igniting the latest bench-clearing incident between local rivals with several years of bad-tempered history.

“Circumstances were really challenging this past series, and at the end of the day I don’t regret standing up for a guy that I love in Tati, and a team that I love and a city that I love,” Shildt said. “In that regard, I have no regrets how it got to that point. Again, we can all have our comments and thoughts and theories. But as far as my actions, it’s not something you want to do every night or needs to be done, hopefully ever again. But appropriate actions for the circumstances were taken, and I don’t regret it at all.”

Shildt and Roberts served their suspensions Friday. Bench coach Danny Lehmann managed the Dodgers in their 6-5 win over the Washington Nationals, and Padres bench coach Brian Esposito was in San Diego’s dugout vs. the Royals.

In the bottom of the ninth, Ohtani was hit on the back of his right shoulder by Suarez’s pitch, putting the tying run on base during the Dodgers’ three-run rally. Ohtani’s teammates appeared to be preparing to storm the field for the second time before Ohtani waved them back. The three-time MVP then walked to the Padres’ dugout for some light banter, defusing the tension.

Suarez on Friday insisted he hadn’t retaliated for Tatís.

“I was never trying to get anyone into trouble or hit anybody,” Suarez said through an interpreter. “Unfortunately it happened. I got ejected and I couldn’t finish out the game, but we won as a team, and we were able to salvage that game. … [The Dodgers are] entitled to their opinion. They can say whatever they want. That was not the case. I was out there to try to save the game.”

Ohtani threw a bullpen session as scheduled Friday despite getting hit by Suarez on his pitching shoulder. Ohtani’s second mound start for the Dodgers is still expected to happen Sunday, Roberts said.

Tatís was in the Padres’ lineup as usual Friday. Manny Machado said afterward that the Dodgers should “pray” Tatís had escaped serious injury, encouraging them to “put out a candle.”

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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