Who will get traded? Which team will make a big move? What to watch the rest of this MLB offseason
The Carlos Correa saga that loomed over baseball’s offseason finally came to an end this week, meaning the top 25 players in this year’s free agent class have all found homes.
That doesn’t mean the hot stove is done cooking this winter. With moves still left to be made before spring training begins, we asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to weigh in on the storylines that will dominate the final month of the offseason.
Which players are most likely to be traded? Which under-the-radar free agents could still make a big impact? And which teams need to do something before it is too late? Here is what they predict.
Who is the biggest name who will be traded the rest of this offseason?
Olney: Pablo Lopez of the Miami Marlins. The signing of Johnny Cueto adds even more depth to a team that is already stacked in starting pitching, and now Miami GM Kim Ng can start to use some of her rotation surplus to augment the starting lineup. A rival evaluator sees a potential match with the San Diego Padres — Lopez, a good starter who is two seasons away from free agency, in return for steady shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who is under contract for the next couple of seasons with an option for 2025.
Rogers: All signs point to Lopez. The addition of Cueto and the positive return to the mound of Edward Cabrera in the second half last season give the Marlins depth where most teams don’t have it. If Miami had a contending lineup, then trading from that depth wouldn’t make sense, but the Marlins’ offense needs a boost and Lopez can bring them back a hitter. With a couple more years under team control, Lopez has good value right now.
Doolittle: The Marlins signed Jean Segura and then Cueto, so we can no longer describe their offseason as “diddly-squat,” but they haven’t made their most likely play yet, which is to deal from their surfeit of starting pitchers. As Buster and Jesse suggest, the recent signing of Cueto was likely made to bolster the veteran depth in the rotation, making a trade that much more likely. The name I keep coming back to is Lopez, an excellent pitcher who would fit seamlessly in any clubhouse and on any depth chart. Miami badly needs to balance its roster between pitching and position players, and I’d be shocked if some kind of move like that is not forthcoming. Which team is at the other end of this presumed swap for, I presume, a starting-caliber position player is at present a mystery.
Gonzalez: Gleyber Torres, who was offered to the Marlins for Lopez ahead of last year’s trade deadline. DJ LeMahieu can easily replace Torres at second base, and the New York Yankees have a glut of other middle infielders in incumbent shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa and three talented young players — Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera. Torres, who has two years of control remaining, has tailed off offensively in recent years and might benefit from a change of scenery. Trading him, meanwhile, could allow the Yankees to plug remaining holes in left field and the back end of their bullpen.
Schoenfield: Hey, how about the Boston Red Sox and Yankees making a trade for Kiner-Falefa? With Trevor Story sidelined for most of the coming season, the Red Sox need a shortstop. Trades between the two teams are rare, but the Yankees did trade Adam Ottavino to the Red Sox in 2021. However, Kiner-Falefa wouldn’t be the best player traded if Lopez or Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds goes. And since nobody has mentioned Reynolds, I’ll mention him. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Yankees, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are among the teams that could use an outfielder, so with so many potential trade partners, I think the Pirates make a deal they like.
Which one under-the-radar free agent are you most interested in seeing where he signs?
Doolittle: I’ve decided to make all of my answers somehow related to the Marlins. I’m surprised someone hasn’t snatched up Brian Anderson, whom Miami set adrift, as a potential high-use utility player who can help at all four corner positions. He’s not a perfect roster fit because you’d at least like him to have some use as a lefty masher and he has never hit southpaws all that well. But that’s the kind of thing with him … that weakness doesn’t make any particular sense for a right-handed hitter. I feel like he’s the kind of veteran hitter who with some fresh voices in his head might have some unfilled potential that can yet be tapped into.
Gonzalez: Jurickson Profar, a soon-to-be 30-year-old switch-hitter who has the versatility to play every position except catcher. Profar settled into the leadoff spot with the Padres last season and put together a solid offensive showing, batting .243/.331/.391 with 53 extra-base hits. He was worth 2.5 FanGraphs wins above replacement, fourth most among Padres position players. And he can help virtually anyone.
Olney: Zach Britton, who has demonstrated that he has an extremely high ceiling, with his hard-veering sinker, when healthy. One possible landing spot — the New York Mets. That team has some concerns about carrying too many relievers without options, but Britton would give Buck Showalter another experienced lefty and more balance. If agent Scott Boras works out a deal for Britton in New York, that might be a step toward restoring his working relationship with owner Steve Cohen. Plus, Britton has already pitched in New York with the Yankees.
Rogers: Elvis Andrus was such a boost to the Chicago White Sox late in the second half of last season, it’ll be interesting to see who brings him in — as much from a clubhouse perspective as anything else. The Red Sox are an easy choice considering the injury to Story. Andrus is a leader and a veteran who can handle the big-market pressure. As for his production on the field, he tailed off some in late September, but over the course of a month with Chicago — after being picked up due to an injury to Tim Anderson — he compiled an .840 OPS and played smart, heads-up baseball.
Schoenfield: Andrew Chafin has been one of the best lefty relievers the past two seasons — a 2.29 ERA over 135 appearances and 126 innings — and would make an excellent addition to any contender’s bullpen. He has been solid against both sides and actually was more effective against right-handers for the Detroit Tigers in 2022, so you can use him in big moments. The Houston Astros made it through the postseason last year without a lefty (Will Smith was on the World Series roster but didn’t pitch), but Chafin feels like a good fit for Houston.
Which contender most needs to make another move between now and the start of spring training?
Doolittle: Sorry, Marlins fans, I can’t use you on this question. The Dodgers have some work to do. No, they aren’t in danger of slipping into obsolescence, but whereas they invariably project as one of the top couple of teams in the majors, I feel like they’ve been passed up in the forecast game by a handful of clubs that have been a lot more aggressive this winter. In particular, L.A.’s team defense was looking like a concern and still does, though the trade for Miguel Rojas (Marlins!) helps on that front.
Gonzalez: The Marlins stick out to me. Yes, the Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves reside on a different platform in the National League East, but this is nonetheless the Marlins’ window. They possess what the industry desires most — a plethora of proven-yet-controllable starting pitchers. But they have yet to utilize it in order to access the offense they so desperately need. There’s still time, of course, but with so many teams filling so many needs through free agency, one has to wonder if the best opportunities have already passed the Marlins by.
Olney: Soon enough we’ll see if the Baltimore Orioles and Red Sox consider themselves contenders. If Boston is going to have any shot at making the playoffs, the Red Sox need at least a one-year fix at shortstop now that Story is out indefinitely. And after winning 83 games last season and stoking the hope of the fan base, Baltimore’s leadership has spent relatively little; the four free agents signed by the Orioles this winter will make less money combined in 2023 than what Justin Verlander will get with the Mets.
Rogers: Quick, who’s the St. Louis Cardinals‘ ace? If you said Jack Flaherty, then you’ve gone back in time. Perhaps he returns to form, but right now, St. Louis has the same problem it did to end last season: It doesn’t have a true No. 1 pitcher. It’s hard to navigate three or four rounds of the postseason without that guy. And how long can Adam Wainwright be asked to lead the group? At the very least, the Cardinals need more depth there — that is, if they can’t swing a deal for a No. 1.
Schoenfield: The Dodgers don’t NEED to make a move — but I think they will, now that Trevor Bauer has been released and the Dodgers know that they’re on the hook for his $22.5 million salary. The Dodgers would love to keep their payroll below the $233 million tax threshold in order to reset their tax rate, but it’s already at an estimated $237 million according to FanGraphs, so maybe that’s an impossible order. Why not spend a little more?
They just added Miguel Rojas for shortstop insurance (or to keep Gavin Lux at second base). I could see them being in play for Lopez or Reynolds as they still have 40-man and prospect depth to deal from. Certainly, adding another starter to a fragile rotation that includes Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May makes sense, and Reynolds would provide a second reliable outfield bat next to Mookie Betts.
What is the one storyline you’re watching most closely between now and the start of spring training?
Gonzalez: I’ll be interested to see if anybody signs Bauer, who was officially released by the Dodgers on Friday and is now a free agent. It’s widely considered unlikely, at least initially, given that he just finished serving the longest suspension in the history of the sport’s domestic violence policy and hasn’t publicly expressed even a modicum of contrition. But Bauer is in his early 30s, was considered one of the sport’s best pitchers before assault allegations surrounded him in the summer of 2021 and can be acquired for the major league minimum — at a time when free agent contracts have skyrocketed.
Doolittle: Bauer. He is, without a doubt, an impact starting pitcher. The free agent market is now down to a nice list of possibly useful veterans, at least a couple of whom will end up making a meaningful difference next season, but there are no more star-level impact performers out there. Except Bauer. But that’s just the baseball aspect, and there is much more to consider here.
Rogers: The one story that could produce the most hot take opinions is the extra-inning rule. Expect baseball to announce that it’s keeping a runner on second to start the 10th inning and this time there’s no legitimate reason behind it — except that teams and the league like the rule. In the past, it was about pitcher safety, considering shortened spring training due to the COVID-19 pandemic and last year’s lockout. But GMs simply don’t want to deal with the fallout from 18-inning games and the league likes shorter games anyway … So, it’s staying. Cue the heated debate.
Olney: I’ll be watching to see whether or not Shohei Ohtani declares his intention to go to free agency, which is what the baseball world expects — and if the Los Angeles Angels try to sway him with a record-setting offer that will presumably utilize the number “5” in two historic ways: $50 million-plus in annual salary and $500 million-plus in total contract value. Once Ohtani’s status is clarified, we’ll have the first concrete indication of whether he might be traded in July and whether he’ll dominate baseball’s next offseason.
Schoenfield: Ohtani certainly has a chance to become one of the greatest free agents ever — with the title of “greatest” going to Alex Rodriguez, who hit free agency entering his age-25 season after hitting .316/.420/.606 with 41 home runs (10.4 WAR) at 24 years old. So, yes, any declaration from Ohtani would set up a never-ending buzz of rumors and speculation. Something tells me Steve Cohen has already set aside $500 million.
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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