Is anyone getting into the Hall of Fame today? Everything you need to know on ballot reveal day
The Baseball Hall of Fame could see a new addition by the end of the night, when the results of the Baseball Writers Association of America balloting are revealed at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
All 28 former players — 14 returnees and 14 newcomers — on this year’s ballot are vying to be recognized as one of the best to ever play the game. However, what most fans don’t realize is that the list of players inducted into Cooperstown is much larger than you think. Oh, it’s still harder to get elected to than the Pro Football Hall of Fame or the Hockey Hall of Fame and certainly the Basketball Hall of Fame, but it’s not just the inner circle, elite of the elite who get elected. You may disagree with that philosophy, but that has been the case ever since the first class of five immortals was elected in 1936.
So, it may surprise you to learn that Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner might get elected.
Did they feel like Hall of Famers while active? Probably not. They need 75% of the vote to join Fred McGriff, who was elected in December via the Contemporary Era committee, at the induction ceremony in July. They might not get there, meaning it’s possible the writers association tosses its second shutout in three years, although because the ballot doesn’t include Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling — who finished their BBWAA eligibility last year — it has its weakest list of names in two decades, which helps the borderline candidates.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some key questions heading into the announcement.
1. Will Rolen get in?
It’s going to be a nervous wait for Rolen. Via Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame site, which tracks ballots that voters have publicly revealed, we know that Rolen was polling at 79% as of Monday afternoon. In general, however, players see a decline in their percentage once the final totals are revealed. Last year, Rolen dropped nearly 8 points from his pre-reveal total to his final percentage, finishing at 63.2% (receiving just 34.2% of the private ballots).
As for Rolen’s Hall of Fame case, it’s decently strong even by the tough standards of the BBWAA. While he falls short in some of the career counting numbers — he barely cleared 2,000 hits, for example, and finished with 316 home runs and 1,287 RBIs — third base is sort of a hybrid position, part offense and part defense, and Rolen was an eight-time Gold Glove winner with strong defensive metrics to back up that reputation. His defense is a big part of his Hall of Fame case.
In 2004, his then-manager Tony La Russa called him the best third baseman he’d ever seen. Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, himself a 10-time Gold Glove winner, said Rolen “is better than me.” The idea of Rolen as one of the best defenders ever at the position isn’t some rewriting of history. While he was a big guy at 6-foot-4 and well over 200 pounds, he had that first-step quickness of a shortstop (he was runner-up for Indiana’s Mr. Basketball award as a senior in high school) and a strong arm as well. The defensive metrics at Baseball-Reference.com credit Rolen with the third-most fielding runs among third basemen (behind Brooks Robinson and Adrian Beltre) and I’m buying those numbers. They helped boost his career WAR to 70.1 — ninth-highest among third basemen — and the ninth-best third baseman of all time is a strong Hall of Fame candidate.
From his rookie season with the Philadelphia Phillies in 1997 through 2004, his career year when he finished third in the MVP voting, Rolen ranked third among all position players in WAR, behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. Of course, Rolen’s all-around brilliance went underappreciated in those days, especially in that era of pumped-up offensive numbers. Still, he hit .287/.379/.524 and averaged 28 home runs and 102 RBIs over those eight seasons. It didn’t help that his early seasons, before his 2002 trade to the St. Louis Cardinals, came on mostly bad Phillies teams.
He was also not one for the spotlight. “Rolen doesn’t say a word around here,” Cardinals teammate Steve Kline said in 2002. “He just plays ball. He hustles at everything he does out there. He sprints up and down the line, he sprints on and off the field, and he just plays hard all the time. He gives you everything he has.”
Here’s one way to put Rolen’s 70.1 WAR in another perspective. Since 2000, the BBWAA has elected 38 non-relievers (I’m excluding them because of their lower WAR totals). The average career WAR for that group is 73.5, so Rolen isn’t far below the average. He’s also right smack in the middle of the median — 19 players above him with more WAR, 19 below him with less. Yes, that third-place finish in 2004 was his only top-10 MVP finish and he missed a lot of time in his 30s with injuries, but Rolen is comfortably above the bar for me.
2. How close will Wagner get?
In his eighth time on the ballot, the former Houston Astros/Phillies/New York Mets/Atlanta Braves closer is polling at 73.5%. While that would fall just short of the 75% threshold, it would be a big increase from last year’s 51% total and put him in great position to go over the top in 2024. Don’t dismiss the chance of him getting in this year, however. Unlike Rolen, Wagner’s final total barely slipped from the pre-vote public results last year, as he dropped just 0.7 of a point. With a few additional votes, he could get to 75%.
Wagner was a revelation when he came up with the Astros in 1995, a short lefty with a blazing fastball that would reach triple digits with today’s technology. His fastball drew comparisons to Nolan Ryan’s. Early in his career, the Astros had him junk his curveball to work on a slider on the sidelines. In the meantime, he just threw his fastball, one after another. Batters still couldn’t touch it. In 1997, he became the first pitcher with at least 50 innings to strike out 14 batters per nine innings. His career strikeout rate of 11.92 per nine innings remains the best ever among pitchers with at least 900 innings.
He was also remarkably consistent — his only season with an ERA above 3.00 was when he was injured in 2000 and appeared in just 28 games. His 2.31 career ERA is just a hair above Mariano Rivera’s 2.21, although Rivera pitched more innings and more than doubled him in career WAR (56.3 to 27.8). Wagner was also the antithesis of Rivera in limited postseason appearances, posting a 10.03 ERA in 11⅔ innings. He’s sixth all-time in saves, behind Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith (all Hall of Famers) but also behind Francisco Rodriguez (who is on this ballot) and John Franco.
It’s a strong case, no doubt, and his election now seems inevitable — whether this year, next year or by some future committee. My only issue: The Hall is already bloated with closers, at least in comparison with other positions. Since the modern closer emerged in the 1970s, more of them have been elected to the Hall of Fame than any position except starting pitchers. Broken down by position, the Hall of Famers who produced most of their value in the 1970s or later were starting pitchers (17) and closers (seven), with all other positions at six or less.
While I understand that closer is a “position” and they should be evaluated on their merits, it’s also clear that voters have been softer on closers while maintaining rigorous standards at other positions. For instance, Andy Pettitte is polling at just 17% — even though he pitched 2,413 more innings than Wagner and was a huge factor in the postseason behind five World Series titles for the New York Yankees.
3. Will Todd Helton and Andruw Jones continue to see their support increase?
Helton received 52% of the vote last year, his fourth on the ballot, while Jones came in at 41% on his fifth ballot. As with Wagner, jumping past that 50% mark for Helton is a good sign for future induction. In fact, we might be underselling Helton’s chances a bit by first writing about Rolen and Wagner. He edged ahead of Rolen in the public vote at 79.6%. His pre-result total fell 5% last year, so it appears he’s going to be right at that 75% threshold as well. Jones is at 68%.
I dug a little bit into their cases last week, but both were high-peak performers who weren’t as good in their 30s. Helton battled back injuries, and Jones flamed out quickly after turning 30. Both, however, had five seasons of 6-plus WAR — and only 47 position players since integration in 1947 have done that. Helton did it with offense over a five-year stretch in which he hit .349/.450/.643; Jones did it with perhaps the best center-field defense of all time and over 400 career home runs. Their career WAR totals — 61.8 for Helton, 62.7 for Jones — are a little soft.
Jones joins Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. as the only outfielders with 10 Gold Gloves and 400 home runs (Mike Schmidt is the only other player to do it). Of course, that’s meant to make Jones look good, but he obviously isn’t in the same company as Mays or Griffey as an all-around player. (Actually, to put it even more bluntly: Mays’ career WAR is higher than Griffey’s PLUS Jones’. Willie Mays was good!)
Jones created an estimated 119 runs more than average as a hitter. That’s comparable to the likes of Mike Greenwell, Johnny Grubb, Carlos Pena, Matt Stairs and Michael Cuddyer. His case rests on his defense, not getting compared to Mays and Griffey.
4. How will Carlos Beltran do?
The most interesting new candidate on the ballot is Beltran. Like Rolen, he was a marvelous two-way performer, a nine-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove center fielder who was one of the best postseason performers of the wild-card era, hitting .307/.412/.609 with 16 home runs in 65 playoff games. He has more impressive counting stats than Rolen with 435 home runs, 1,582 runs and 1,587 RBIs. That makes him one of 29 players in the just-invented-yet-exclusive 400/1500/1500 club — and of those 29, only Mays and Alex Rodriguez also stole 300 bases. In 2003-04, Beltran swiped 83 bases in 90 attempts; he was also 31-for-32 in 2001. The young Beltran was something to watch.
All that should scream first-ballot inductee … except Beltran arrives on the ballot with the stink of the Astros’ cheating scandal. He was the only player named in the commissioner’s report, although that’s a little misleading because he was retired at the time, making him an easy target since commissioner Rob Manfred made it a point not to punish the active players in order to get their cooperation. Still, Beltran and coach Alex Cora came across as the architects of the whole idea, with Beltran the initial instigator in suggesting the Astros were behind the times.
My quick take:
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Absent the scandal, I don’t believe Beltran would have been a first-ballot inductee anyway. As impressive as his career numbers are, he’s correctly not viewed as an inner-circle type — as evidenced by just two top-10 MVP finishes. His career WAR of 70.1 is better than that of many Hall of Famers, but Beltran is the kind of qualified candidate some voters still purposely hold back on as a first-ballot choice, believing that it holds special honor.
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The scandal is going to cost him some votes. He’s polling at 55.2%, which feels a little low given his numbers. We’ve seen a handful of voters say they’ll withhold a vote for at least a year as punishment — and, I’m guessing, more than a few will perhaps permanently withhold a vote, classifying him alongside the PED guys.
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Still, if he can get close to 50%, that’s a strong start. Given that we’ve seen Rolen rise from 10.2% his first year (no player has started that low and eventually been inducted by the BBWAA) and Wagner climb from 10.5%, Beltran should see his support rise in the future as the cheating scandal recedes into the past.
All that said, I could be wrong. Maybe the cheating cloud will hang over Beltran and he goes the way of Bonds and Clemens.
5. Who’s reaching the end of their eligibility?
It’s the final ballot for Jeff Kent, and he’s not going to get in, polling at 50.8%.
Kent is the all-time home run leader among second basemen and third in RBIs. While the BBWAA has given him a collective thumbs-down, he is the kind of player a future Contemporary Era ballot will almost certainly favor. This is how he compares to McGriff, who received 16 of 16 votes from the committee back in December:
McGriff: 493 HRs, 1550 RBIs, 2490 hits, 1349 runs, 52.6 WAR
Kent: 377 HRs, 1518 RBIs, 2561 hits, 1320 runs, 55.4 WAR
It’s also the ninth year for Gary Sheffield, who, fun fact, was a better hitter than Ken Griffey Jr. As somebody who has a Griffey bobblehead on my bookshelf, it pains me to say this, but it’s true.
Griffey hit more home runs, but Sheffield produced an estimated 561 runs more than average as a hitter compared to 440 for Griffey. That’s the value of Sheffield’s ability to get on base. Griffey’s career-high OBP was .408 and he topped .400 just twice, but Sheffield topped .400 in 10 seasons. If you’re a better hitter than Ken Griffey Jr., maybe you have a strong case for Cooperstown.
Sheffield is polling at 63.3%, up from his 2022 final total of 40.6%, and perhaps putting him within shouting distance of getting elected in 2024. Larry Walker shot up from 54.6% in his ninth year to 76.6%, so it’s possible although unlikely in Sheffield’s case. (Sheffield’s vote might be hurt by his admitting in 2004 that he had used “The Cream,” a designer steroid he claimed Barry Bonds introduced to him, during the 2002 season.)
6. What about Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez?
In his second year, A-Rod is at 39.8% and Manny, now in his seventh year (!) on the ballot, is at 37%. Bonds and Clemens fell short in their final year last January at 66%, then got immediately bumped over to the Contemporary Era committee and received fewer than four votes. Given that Rodriguez and Ramirez were both suspended (unlike Bonds and Clemens), it doesn’t look good for them.
Will we have another year of no one surpassing the 75% threshold, or will some variation of Rolen, Helton or Wagner be able to? We’ll soon see.
The MLB winter meetings are underway in Orlando, Florida, with the baseball industry gathering for an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades — including big splashes by top NL powerhouses with the Philadelphia Phillies bringing back Kyle Schwarber and the Los Angeles Dodgers adding top closer Edwin Diaz.
We’ve got it all covered for you, from our predictions going into the meetings to the latest updates and analysis as the moves go down.
Which big free agents will pick a team? Who will be mentioned in blockbuster trade discussion? And what rumors will rule the week? Check out our predictions and refresh often for the latest intel and reaction as the week unfolds.
Key links: Olney, Passan: Latest intel | Every team’s plan | FA tracker | Grades
Winter meetings news and rumors
Dec. 9 buzz
Why Marlins, Orioles could be a trade match
The Marlins are active in trade talks with multiple teams for Edward Cabrera, a 27-year-old right-hander who has been considered the most likely among their controllable starters to be moved, a source familiar with the situation said. At this point, the Orioles are the most advanced in those talks, as first reported by The Athletic. If completed, it’s an ideal fit. The Orioles are in need of a top-of-the-rotation starter and the Marlins are seeking controllable offensive pieces. — Alden Gonzalez
Will Dodgers make another free agency splash for a star outfielder?
Now that the Dodgers have solved their glaring ninth-inning problem, agreeing to a three-year, $69 million contract with Edwin Diaz, they can shift their focus to adding an outfielder. And until he comes off the board, they’ll continue to be linked to top free agent Kyle Tucker.
The Dodgers aren’t expected to get into the $400 million range on a long-term deal, but like with Diaz, they’ll remain on the periphery in case a short-term, high-AAV deal makes sense. That might not be the case for Tucker, who’s 28 and widely considered the best free agent available. Another option is Cody Bellinger, though it remains to be seen whether both sides are truly interested in a reunion. Of note: Both of those players are attached to a qualifying offer, as was Diaz.
Asked Tuesday night if he could see himself making another big free agent signing, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said: “I would say we definitely can. Whether that makes the most sense within the timing of our roster — there’s so many factors that go into it, and any decision you make has a future cost. … So, yes we can. How likely it is is probably another question.” — Gonzalez
Why extensions could be coming for A’s core hitters
The Athletics still need to build out some depths in their starting pitching as they aim to become sustainable contenders in the leadup to their move to Las Vegas, but there’s little doubt they’ve built a formidable core of position players — and part of the focus this offseason, in addition to adding reliable arms throughout their pitching staff, is keeping that core intact.
The A’s extended Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler last offseason, and now they’d love to find a way to lock up the likes of Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Shea Langeliers.
“There’s a big effort there to keep this group together,” A’s manager Mark Kotsay said. “If we look at the group prior to this, that you could identify as a group that you would have wanted to move forward with, a group that came together in ’17 and ’18 and ’19 — the resources weren’t there to afford to keep that group together. I think there’s a vision and a future here going forward with this group that we were able to at least get those opportunities out in front of these players.” — Gonzalez
Will D-backs get enough to move Marte?
All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte continues to be the talk of this year’s winter meetings, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are asking a high return at the moment, sources familiar with the market told ESPN, which falls in line with what general manager Mike Hazen has communicated publicly — that he’s not required to trade Marte, but he will surely consider the right deal.
The Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays are among those who have been linked to Marte, though others are surely involved. A lot of teams have shown interest, but talks have yet to get serious.
The D-backs would ideally land a higher-end starting pitcher in return — a major need with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly probably departing via free agency, and Corbin Burnes spending at least the majority of 2026 recovering from Tommy John surgery — and would require major league-ready talent as part of any package, a source said. Given that his 10-and-5 rights kick in in April, there is at least some urgency to trade him this offseason.
D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he has been in touch with Marte over the offseason and that the mention of his name so aggressively in rumors “might have caught him by surprise a little bit.”
“But I think he gets it,” Lovullo added. “I told him just what I told you guys — teams are smart. They want really good players. He’s one of the best in the National League. I understand why teams are making phone calls on him. He gets that.” — Gonzalez
White Sox have high bar for dealing Robert
In his first 31 games after the All-Star break, Luis Robert Jr. demonstrated what kind of impact he could have, batting to a .298/.352/.456 slash line, clubbing five homers and stealing five bases. Throughout Robert’s career, the talk has been about his possible impact if he ever remained injury-free and in the lineup, and this was an example of that.
But then Robert got hurt, again, and the Chicago White Sox — with very little future payroll obligation — picked up his $20 million option for 2026, in the hope that he could hit that ceiling for an extended period. The White Sox don’t intend to trade Robert until some interested team is willing to pay for the value of what he could be at his best, rather than for a bargain price. Some teams have checked on Roberts’ availability, but to date, no team has met Chicago’s high bar for a trade return.
Short of that, the White Sox are likely to keep Robert into the ’26 season, and maybe beyond. The team holds another $20 million option for the ’27 season, a year of club control that could make Robert look even more attractive in trade if the 28-year-old is able to stay on the field and generate the kind of high-end production the White Sox enjoyed last summer. — Buster Olney
Fairbanks drawing lots of interest
Pete Fairbanks is a very popular player this offseason. The right-handed reliever has received interest from several clubs, including the Marlins and Blue Jays, sources told ESPN. Fairbanks, 31, recorded a 2.83 ERA in 61 appearances for the Rays last season. He reached free agency after Tampa Bay, in a cost-cutting measure, did not pick up his $11 million option. His injury history could be a concern for teams, but he’s expected to land a two- or three-year deal. — Jorge Castillo
Three teams to watch in trade talks
Free agent splashes dominated the winter meetings spotlight Tuesday morning, but trade winds continue to swirl in Orlando. The Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres are all coming up often as teams that could make a deal soon. — Jesse Rogers
Could the Blue Jays make another splash?
The reigning AL champions are still looking to spend after a strong start to the offseason and could leave the winter meetings with a new closer. Pete Fairbanks and Robert Suarez are two names to watch in Toronto’s reliever search — Rogers
Don’t expect a Valdez deal soon
The top closer and one of the top hitters in this free agent class agreed to deals Tuesday, but don’t expect to see the best available starting pitcher come off the board next. The market for right-hander Framber Valdez is still developing and he won’t be signing with a team for a while. — Rogers
Diaz’s deal with Dodgers spices up meetings
Moments after news broke of Kyle Schwarber‘s return to the Phillies, the Los Angeles Dodgers made a major move of their own in signing top free agent closer Edwin Diaz. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the deal is for three years and $69 million — which sets an AAV record for relievers.
The Dodgers had a clear need in the ninth going into the offseason, no matter how much they hyped up their depth publicly. But many doubted they’d go long term for the top guy in Diaz. A shorter, higher-AAV deal falls right in line with their preference. — Gonzalez
Will Schwarber’s return to Phillies heat up winter meetings?
Slugger Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a five-year, $150 million contract, sources told ESPN. Schwarber’s return to Philly takes one of the most coveted free agents of this winter off the board and could be the move that sparks a run of action as the winter meetings roll on.
Dec. 8 buzz
Dodgers eyeing trades — but say Teoscar Hernandez won’t be dealt
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t expected to make major free agent moves this winter — at least not to the extent of the past two offseasons — and they’re certainly talking like a team content with where things stand.
Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said Monday that “there’s not as many clear paths to make the team meaningfully better.”
Earlier, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts — acknowledging the team’s philosophy last year, that injecting new blood into the roster might be a good way to maintain an edge — said, “There’s really no big splash we feel needs to be made, because this team is still focused, and there’s some talk about a three-peat.”
Still, sources have said, the Dodgers will continue to look for ways to upgrade their outfield and fortify the back end of their bullpen, with the trade market the ideal path. A center fielder would be ideal for the Dodgers because of how it would fortify the entire outfield’s defense, prompting Andy Pages and his plus arm to move to right field while Teoscar Hernandez and his shoddy defense transition to left.
But Gomes praised Pages’ center-field defense, adding that it allows the team the flexibility to pursue any outfielder. Gomes also shot down rumors of Hernandez potentially being traded.
“That doesn’t feel likely,” Gomes said. “Obviously, you can never say never on those types of things, but Teo, I know that’s come up. That’s not something we anticipate at all.” — Gonzalez
Teams checking in on former All-Star Willi Castro
The Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies are among the teams interested in signing utility man Willi Castro, sources told ESPN. Castro, 28, was an All-Star in 2024 after a strong first half with the Minnesota Twins, but he regressed through the second half and into the 2025 season.
The switch-hitter slashed .245/.335/.407 with the Twins in 2025 before he was sent to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline. He struggled in Chicago, batting just .170 with one home run and a .485 OPS in 34 games and did not have a plate appearance in the postseason.
Advanced metrics indicate Castro also regressed defensively in 2025, dropping from 0 to minus-9 outs above average, but he’s a versatile defender who played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots. — Castillo
Padres keeping trio in bullpen, need starting pitchers
In his winter meetings availability, San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen said the team will keep Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan in the bullpen rather than converting them to starters.
“It’s a risky proposition health-wise and performance-wise,” Stammen said.
So, the Padres are very much in the market for starters. — Gonzalez
What will Tigers do with Skubal?
The Detroit Tigers continue to have trade dialogue with other teams about two-time American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. At its heart, Detroit’s choice about whether to swap Skubal now — before he reaches free agency next fall — comes down to this question: Will owner Chris Ilitch and the team’s front office place more on the opportunity to win in 2026, or will they place a greater value on the extraordinary collection of young players they would presumably acquire in a Skubal deal?
What complicates this decision is that the Tigers reside in the highly winnable AL Central. The theoretical path to the World Series is probably easier than it would be to come out of the AL East, with all of its financial monsters, or the AL West, where the Mariners are poised to be a formidable force for years to come. Despite a late-season collapse, the Tigers were still just a run away from playing for the AL championship two months ago.
If the Tigers decide to keep Skubal, they will have to be at peace with the reality that they’ll recoup just a fraction of Skubal’s current value when and if he departs as a free agent — through draft pick compensation. This is the part of the market equation that has compelled the Guardians to flip the likes of CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee or Francisco Lindor in past trades, and why the Brewers dealt Corbin Burnes before the 2024 season. — Olney
Which Marlins starting pitcher will be traded?
Sandy Alcantara is a long shot to be traded at this point, as is teammate Eury Perez, the 22-year-old right-hander whom Miami Marlins would love to sign to an extension. The most likely Marlins starter to get traded, a source familiar with the team’s thinking said, is Edward Cabrera, who is out of options and would be controllable for three years.
Cabrera, 27, posted a 3.53 ERA with 150 strikeouts and 48 walks in 137⅔ innings in 2025. The Marlins would love to use Cabrera — and potentially fellow starter Ryan Weathers, who is coming off an injury plagued season — to address their offensive needs, primarily at first base.
Cabrera, though, is among a deep crop of available starting pitchers this offseason, alongside the likes of Freddy Peralta, Kris Bubic, Mitch Keller, Joe Ryan, Hunter Greene and, most notably, Tarik Skubal. Peralta, Ryan, Greene and Skubal will most likely stay put, but they are nonetheless in trade talks. — Gonzalez
How far will the Phillies go to keep Schwarber?
A lot of the industry is waiting on Kyle Schwarber‘s free agent decision. He has both big and small market teams chasing him but most important will be what he hears from the Philadelphia Phillies, and that can come as soon as Monday or Tuesday. Will they match any offer? Will Schwarber take a little less to stay in Philadelphia? Those questions should be answered soon. — Rogers
King’s suitors starting to take shape
Free agent pitcher Michael King has a half dozen suitors, including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs, but his market hasn’t completely materialized yet. — Rogers
Polanco could make a decision soon
Free agent second baseman Jorge Polanco, coming off a strong 2025 season with the Seattle Mariners, is expected to sign with a team during the winter meetings. — Rogers
Winter meetings predictions
Who will be the biggest name to sign (or get traded) in Orlando?
Jorge Castillo: I root for action at the winter meetings, so let’s pick the biggest name on the free agent market: Kyle Tucker. There aren’t many suitors that, whether it’s for fit or financial reasons, are in the mix, but there’s still interest for an ultra-talented player who can alter the championship landscape. And it starts with Toronto.
The Blue Jays whiffed on the brightest stars of the past two free agent classes — Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto — and Rogers Communications still has money to spend after investing $500 million in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in April and another $210 million recently in free agent starter Dylan Cease. Tucker visited the Blue Jays’ facility in Florida last week. Pairing the left-handed-hitting outfielder with the right-handed-hitting Guerrero would give Toronto a scary tandem for years.
Bradford Doolittle: The inclusion of Byron Buxton on our trade candidates ranking took me aback, mostly because Buxton has been insistent that he will remain a Twin. It’s surprising that he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause, but Buxton is 31, and the Twins don’t seem all-in on winning. Several leading contenders could use a bump in center field — the Houston Astros and New York Mets jump out as clear fits — and if the Twins are heading down this road, dealing Buxton soon would start those dominoes to fall.
Alden Gonzalez: A game of chicken might be brewing at the moment. On one side it’s Cody Bellinger, represented by the Boras Corporation. On the other it’s Tucker, whose free agency is overseen by Excel Sports Management. They’re arguably the two biggest names available, both of them versatile, multi-dimensional, dynamic outfielders, their markets naturally intertwined. And I think Bellinger goes first.
His price point — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicts a six-year, $165 million contract — is more reasonable, and his list of suitors is seemingly more robust because of it. The New York Yankees want him back. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets are all a fit, to varying degrees. Given Bellinger’s ability to also play first base, other teams will undoubtedly emerge. Jumping on Bellinger before Tucker comes off the board and further inflates his market would be smart. And one team will do so this week.
Jesse Rogers: Ranger Suarez. Scott Boras clients usually take longer to come off the board, but not all of them can wait until the new year. Suarez isn’t staring at a megadeal, so checking him off the free agent list by late next week seems more than plausible.
The chatter surrounding the left-hander’s free agency from potential suitors such as the Astros, Mets, Orioles and others is picking up. He’s in line for at least a solid four-year deal — and if a team offers five or even six, it’ll likely land him.
What is one move fans might not expect you to predict will go down this week?
Castillo: Pete Alonso will probably wait until Kyle Schwarber decides on his destination, but I predict Alonso will sign with the Red Sox. Craig Breslow, Boston’s chief baseball officer, has been clear about his desire to acquire a right-handed slugger for the middle of the order. Not many players are better qualified for that role than the right-handed-hitting Alonso, whose 264 home runs since his debut in 2019 are the third most in baseball behind Aaron Judge and Schwarber.
Alonso is coming off a rebound All-Star season in which he clubbed 38 home runs with 126 RBIs, an NL-leading 41 doubles and an .871 OPS for the Mets. Defensively, Alonso is below average, but he could split time with Triston Casas at first base and designated hitter.
The Mets, on the other hand, are determined to improve their defense and would seemingly be in play for Alonso only if his market collapses for the second straight offseason.
Doolittle: Maybe it’s because I am overly susceptible to rumors that tickle my penchant for anti-Wolfean narratives, but I’ll say Schwarber will sign with his hometown Cincinnati Reds. It’s such a perfect fit, and not just because of Schwarber’s ties to Cincinnati. The Reds have a real chance to contend in the NL Central with the right upgrade on offense. And what an upgrade — Schwarber’s swing is perfect for Great American Ballpark, which has featured more homers from visiting lefty hitters over the past five years than any other venue (including 96 more than Citizens Bank Park). Even at 32, give Schwarber five healthy seasons at that park and he’ll reach 500 career bombs.
Gonzalez: This year’s market seems especially ripe for trades, and I think we’re going to see some big-name starting pitchers dealt during the winter meetings. Who, exactly, is anybody’s guess at this point, but there are a bevy of names to choose from, whether it’s two of the Miami Marlins‘ frontline guys (Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera), three steady veterans (Freddy Peralta, Luis Castillo and Pablo Lopez), two budding aces (Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore) or two Cy Young-caliber arms who are unlikely to move but are fascinating nonetheless (Tarik Skubal and Hunter Greene). All eyes will be on the big free agents this week, but the trade market will dominate. And the starting pitchers will be featured in it.
Rogers: How about a bold one: Nick Castellanos gets traded. Perhaps it won’t land as the biggest of surprises, considering how things went down in Philadelphia last year, but a deal would further show that the Phillies are turning things over a bit as they continue to chase a ring.
Castellanos could be the perfect fit for Pittsburgh, which is desperate for hitting. In a recent interview on MLB Network, Castellanos discussed the idea of playing first base. That opens the door to even more possibilities outside of Philadelphia.
What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?
Castillo: Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte, if moved, would be the best position player to move this offseason — Tucker and Schwarber included. So the fact that he is available will undoubtedly generate rumors all week.
First, Marte produces. His 15.3 WAR over the past three seasons is 13th in the majors. He has made the NL All-Star team each of the past two seasons. He finished third in the NL MVP race in 2024. He owns a .289/.363/.510 slash line since 2019. Second, his economical contract — he has five years and $91 million plus a sixth-year player option at $11.5 million remaining — only adds to the allure and makes him palpable for several clubs. Marte is 32 and drew anonymous criticism from teammates for his behavior last season, but a player of his caliber will draw substantial interest.
Doolittle: Something about Tucker? It doesn’t feel like there have been many concrete reports regarding Tucker’s possible destination, but he’s the top free agent, so the rumor mill is more likely to focus on his wanderings than anyone else until he signs. News about him will pick up in Orlando.
Gonzalez: There is no bigger name on the trade market than Skubal. On one end, he is beloved in Detroit, where he has established himself as the type of cornerstone who should never pitch anywhere else. On the other is the cold reality — that he is a Boras client who would command the types of sums in the open market that the Tigers are either unwilling or unable to pay him. And though the Tigers intend to contend in 2026 and would undoubtedly have a better chance of doing so with Skubal fronting their rotation, it would be foolish not to at least explore a trade and attempt to get major talent back in return. It’s the responsible thing to do — and yet Tigers fans have every right to be enraged about this even being a possibility.
Rogers: Where Kyle Schwarber will play in 2026 and beyond. His next contract should be in the $150 million range, though if a new team steps up and is willing to pay big time for not only his power but his leadership, then all bets are off. But as intriguing as a smaller market might be, the Phillies need him as much as anyone during their current window to win. His return there isn’t a guarantee, but it still makes the most sense.
PITTSBURGH — The Pittsburgh Penguins placed center Evgeni Malkin on injured reserve Tuesday with an upper-body injury.
The move comes after the 39-year-old Malkin sat out a shootout loss to Dallas on Sunday. Malkin, in the final season of his contract with the Penguins, is off to one of the better starts of his 20-year career.
The Russian has eight goals and 21 assists in 26 games for surprising Pittsburgh, which began the season with modest expectations but is firmly in contention in the competitive Metropolitan Division.
The Penguins also placed forward Blake Lizotte on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Lizotte has three goals and two assists in 27 games.
The club described Malkin and Lizotte as both week-to-week.
Pittsburgh recalled forwards Danton Heinen and Sam Poulin from their American Hockey League affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to fill out the roster ahead of Tuesday night’s visit by Anaheim, the start of a five-game homestand.
TORONTO — Toronto Maple Leafs forward Bobby McMann has been suspended one game for high-sticking Tampa Bay Lightning winger Oliver Bjorkstrand, the NHL announced Tuesday.
The incident occurred three minutes into the third period of Toronto’s 2-0 win over Tampa Bay on Monday night.
McMann received a match penalty after swinging his stick and hitting Bjorkstrand’s head following a cross-check from the Lightning forward.
McMann, who is being suspended for the first time in his career, will forfeit U.S. $7,031.25. The money goes to the Players’ Emergency Assistance Fund.
He will miss Toronto’s game Thursday night against the visiting San Jose Sharks, and is eligible to return when the Maple Leafs host the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.
McMann, 29, has eight goals and six assists in 29 games this season.
Leafs coach Craig Berube disagreed with the match penalty on Monday, calling it a “tough one.”
“From our view on the bench, I couldn’t really see it too well. I’ll take a look at it, but I had a tough time with that,” he said after the game.
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