Intel’s horrible quarter revealed an inventory glut and underused factories

Published

2 years ago

January 26, 2023

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Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, with U.S. President Joe Biden (not pictured), announces the tech firm’s plan to build a $20 billion plant in Ohio, from the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus in Washington, January 21, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Intel’s December earnings showed significant declines in the company’s sales, profit, gross margin, and outlook, both for the quarter and the full year.

Investors hated it, sending the stock over 9% lower in extended trading, despite the fact that Intel did not cut its dividend.

The earnings report, which was the eighth under CEO Pat Gelsinger’s leadership, shows a legendary technology company struggling with many factors outside of its control, including a deeply slumping PC market. It also highlights some of Intel’s current issues with weak demand for its current products and inefficient internal performance, and underscores how precarious the company’s financial health has become.

“Clearly, the financials aren’t what we would hoped,” Gelsinger told analysts.

In short: Intel had a difficult 2022, and 2023 is shaping up to be tough as well.

Here are some of the most concerning bits from Intel’s earnings report and analyst call:

Weak and uncertain guidance

Intel didn’t give full-year guidance for 2023, citing economic uncertainty.

But the data points for the current quarter suggest tough times. Intel guided for about $11 billion in sales in the March quarter, which would be a 40% year-over-year decline. Gross margin will be 34.1%, a huge decrease from the 55.2% in the same quarter in 2021, Gelsinger’s first at the helm.

But the biggest issue for investors is that Intel guided to a 15 cent non-GAAP loss per share, a big decline for a company that a year ago was reporting $1.13 in profit per share. It would be the first loss per share since last summer, which was the first loss for the company in decades.

An inventory glut

Management gave several reasons for the tough upcoming quarter, but one theme that came through was that its customers simply have too many chips and need to work through inventory, so they won’t be buying many new chips.

Both the PC and server markets have slowed after a two-year boom spurred by remote work and school during the pandemic. Now, PC sales have slowed and the computer makers have too many chips. Gelsinger is predicting PC sales during the year to be around 270 million to 295 million — a far cry from the “million units-a-day” he predicted in 2021.

Now, Intel’s customers have to “digest” the chips they already have, or “correct” their inventories, and the company doesn’t know when this dynamic will shift back.

“While we know this dynamic will reverse, predicting when is difficult,” Gelsinger told analysts.

Dropoff in gross margin

Underpinning all of this is that Intel’s gross margin continues to decline, hurting the company’s profitability. One issue is “factory load,” or how efficiently factories run around the clock. Intel said that its gross margin would be hit by 400 basis points, or 4 percentage points, because of factories running under load because of soft demand.

Ultimately, Intel forecasts a 34.1% gross margin in the current quarter — a far cry from the 51% to 53% goal the company set at last year’s investor day. The company says it’s working on it, and the margin could get back to Intel’s goal “in the medium-term” if demand recovers.

“We have a number of initiatives under way to improve gross margins and we’re well under way. When you look at the $3 billion reduction [in costs] that we talked about for 2023, 1 billion of that is in cost of sales and we’re well on our way to getting that billion dollars,” Gelsinger said.

The not-so-bad news: Dividend and self-driving

Long-term investors have always closely watched how the company balances the near-term need to placate shareholders with the massive capital spending needed to stay competitive in the semiconductor manufacturing business.

If Intel is cutting costs and still needing to invest in chip factories to power its turnaround, analysts say it may want to reconsider its dividend. Intel spent $6 billion on dividends in 2022, but did not cut its dividend on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the company said it wants to cut $3 billion in costs for 2023 and analysts believe it wants to spend around $20 billion in capital expenditures to build out its factories.

Gelsinger was asked about this dynamic on Thursday.

“I’d just say the board, management, we take a very disciplined approach to the capital allocation strategy and we’re going to remain committed to being very prudent around how we allocate capital for the owners and we are committed to maintaining a competitive dividend,” Gelsinger replied.

There was at least one bright spot for Intel on Thursday.

Mobileye, its self-driving subsidiary that went public during the December quarter, reported earlier in the day, showing adjusted earnings per share of 27 cents and revenue growth of 59%, to $656 million. It also forecast strong 2023 revenue of between $2.19 billion and $2.28 billion. Shares rose nearly 6% during regular trading hours Thursday.

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Tesla launches refreshed Model Y in China to fend off domestic rivals

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4 hours ago

January 10, 2025

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Tesla launched a revamped version of its Model Y in China.

Tesla

Tesla on Friday announced a revamped version of its popular Model Y in China, as the U.S. electric car giant looks to fend off challenges from domestic rivals.

The Model Y will start at 263,500 Chinese yuan ($35,935), with deliveries set to begin in March. That is 5.4% more expensive than the starting price of the previous Model Y.

A spokesperson for Tesla China said that the new Model Y is only open for pre-sale in the Chinese market, rather than being launched globally.

Tesla’s Model Y refresh comes after the auto giant this month reported its first ever annual decline in overall deliveries for 2024.

Elon Musk’s electric vehicle firm is facing heightened competition around the world, from startups and traditional carmakers in Europe. In China, the company continues to face an onslaught of rivals from BYD to newer players like Xpeng and Nio.

Jason Low, principal analyst at Canalys, notes that the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling EV in China in 2024 and that the popularity of the car “remains high.” However, he noted that the competition in the sports utility vehicle (SUV) segment with vehicles priced between 250,000 yuan and 350,000 yuan “has been fierce.”

“Tesla must showcase compelling smart features, particularly a unique but well localized cockpit and services ecosystem,” as well as “effective” semi-autonomous driver assistance features “to ensure its competitiveness in the market,” Low added.

Tesla is offering a number of incentives for customers to buy the Model Y including a five-year 0% interest financing plan.

The new Model Y can accelerate from 0 kilometers per hour to 100 kilometers per hour in 4.3 seconds, Tesla said, exceeding the speed capabilities of the previous vehicle. The Model Y Long Range has a further driving range on a single charge versus its predecessor.

Tesla has not introduced a new model since it began delivering the Cybertruck in late 2023, which starts at nearly $80,000.

Investors have been yearning for a new mass-market model to reinvigorate sales. Tesla has previously hinted that that a new affordable model could be launched in the first half of 2025.

Despite Tesla’s headwinds, the company’s stock is up nearly 70% over the last 12 months, partly due to CEO Musk’s close relationship with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Technology

World’s biggest chipmaker TSMC posts record 2024 revenue as AI boost continues

Published

7 hours ago

January 10, 2025

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World's biggest chipmaker TSMC posts record 2024 revenue as AI boost continues

The logo for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 26, 2023.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. posted December quarter revenue that topped analyst estimates, as the company continues to get a boost from the AI boom.

The world’s largest chip manufacturer reported fourth-quarter revenue of 868.5 billion New Taiwan dollars ($26.3 billion), according to CNBC calculations, up 38.8% year-on-year.

That beat Refinitiv consensus estimates of 850.1 billion New Taiwan dollars.

For 2024, TSMC’s revenue totaled 2.9 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, its highest annual sales since going public in 1994.

TSMC manufacturers semiconductors for some of the world’s biggest companies, including Apple and Nvidia.

TSMC is seen as the most advanced chipmaker in the world, given its ability to manufacture leading-edge semiconductors. The company has been helped along by the strong demand for AI chips, particularly from Nvidia, as well as ever-improving smartphone semiconductors.

“TSMC has benefited significantly from the strong demand for AI,” Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research told CNBC.

Wang said “capacity utilization” for TSMC’s 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer processes — the most advanced chips — “has consistently exceeded 100%.”

AI graphics processing units (GPUs), such as those designed by Nvidia, and other artificial intelligence chips are driving this demand, Wang said.

Taiwan-listed shares of TSMC have risen 88% over the last 12 months.

TSMC’s latest sales figures may also give hope to investors that the the demand for artificial intelligence chips and services may continue into 2025.

Foxconn, which assembles Apple’s iPhones, reported its highest-ever fourth quarter revenue this week, as it notched strong demand for AI servers.

Meanwhile, Microsoft this month said that it plans to spend $80 billion in its fiscal year to June on the construction of data centers that can handle artificial intelligence workloads.

CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed to this report.

Technology

Supreme Court set to hear oral arguments on challenge to TikTok ban

Published

14 hours ago

January 10, 2025

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Supreme Court set to hear oral arguments on challenge to TikTok ban

Tik Tok creators gather before a press conference to voice their opposition to the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act,” pending crackdown legislation on TikTok in the House of Representatives, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 12, 2024.

Craig Hudson | Reuters

The Supreme Court on Friday will hear oral arguments in the case involving the future of TikTok in the U.S., which could ban the popular app as soon as next week.

The justices will consider whether the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, the law that targets TikTok’s ban and imposes harsh civil penalties for app “entities” that continue to carry the service after Jan.19, violates the U.S. Constitution’s free speech protections.

It’s unclear when the court will hand down a decision, and if China’s ByteDance continues to refuse to divest TikTok to an American company, it faces a complete ban nationwide.

What will change about the user experience?

The roughly 115 million U.S. TikTok monthly active users could face a range of scenarios depending on when the Supreme Court hands down a decision.

If no word comes before the law takes effect on Jan. 19 and the ban goes through, it’s possible that users would still be able to post or engage with the app if they already have it downloaded. However, those users would likely be unable to update or redownload the app after that date, multiple legal experts said.

Thousands of short-form video creators who generate income from TikTok through ad revenue, paid partnerships, merchandise and more will likely need to transition their businesses to other platforms, like YouTube or Instagram.

“Shutting down TikTok, even for a single day, would be a big deal, not just for people who create content on TikTok, but everyone who shares or views content,” said George Wang, a staff attorney at the Knight First Amendment Institute who helped write the institute’s amicus briefs on the case.

“It sets a really dangerous precedent for how we regulate speech online,” Wang said.

Who supports and opposes the ban?

Dozens of high-profile amicus briefs from organizations, members of Congress and President-elect Donald Trump were filed supporting both the government and ByteDance.

The government, led by Attorney General Merrick Garland, alleges that until ByteDance divests TikTok, the app remains a “powerful tool for espionage” and a “potent weapon for covert influence operations.”

Trump’s brief did not voice support for either side, but it did ask the court to oppose banning the platform and allow him to find a political resolution that allows the service to continue while addressing national security concerns.

The short-form video app played a notable role in both Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ presidential campaigns in 2024, and it’s one of the most common news sources for younger voters.

In a September Truth Social post, Trump wrote in all caps Americans who want to save TikTok should vote for him. The post was quoted in his amicus brief.

What comes next?

It’s unclear when the Supreme Court will issue its ruling, but the case’s expedited hearing has some predicting that the court could issue a quick ruling.

The case will have “enormous implications” since TikTok’s user base in the U.S. is so large, said Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of Berkeley Law.

“It’s unprecedented for the government to prohibit platforms for speech, especially one so many people use,” Chemerinsky said. “Ultimately, this is a tension between free speech issues on the one hand and claims of national security on the other.”