Everyone’s watching Meta’s earnings report for a hint at how online ads are doing
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks at Georgetown University in Washington on Oct. 17, 2019.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images
Wall Street’s worst year since 2008 wreaked havoc on tech companies, particularly those reliant on digital advertising.
Facebook parent Meta lost almost two-thirds of its value in 2022 as year-over-year revenue fell in consecutive quarters, leading the company in November to cut 13% of its workforce. Snap’s stock plummeted 81% as growth dipped into the single digits, and the company opted not to provide a forecast for two straight periods. In August, Snap said it was laying off 20% of its employees.
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Following a brutal 2022, investors are starting to return to the online ad sector before a rebound in financial performance that’s expected at some point in 2023. They’re hoping for some signs of a recovery this week as the biggest companies in the space report fourth-quarter results and provide an update on whether brands are starting to spend more on ads after pausing many of their campaigns.
Snap is scheduled to issue results after the close of trading on Tuesday. Meta reports on Wednesday, followed by Google parent Alphabet on Thursday. Also on Thursday, investors will hear from Amazon and Apple, which both have growing digital ad businesses that have been taking market share of late from Google and Facebook.
With concerns of a potential recession still looming large, market analysts anticipate more turmoil ahead for online advertising. A survey of 50 ad buyers published this month by Cowen showed that companies expect their spending in 2023 to rise just 3.3%, which the investment bank said represents “the softest ad growth outlook we’ve seen in five years.” Last year, those companies increased spending by 7.5%.
“Two-thirds of ad buyers factored in a recession as part of their budgeting process, citing inflation and a softening consumer, among other macro factors,” Cowen said.
In addition to the macro challenges, companies that rely on mobile data for ad targeting are still reckoning with upheaval caused by Apple. In 2021, the iPhone maker instituted a new App Tracking Transparency (ATT) feature, which reduced targeting capabilities by limiting advertisers from accessing a smartphone user identifier. Meta said early last year that ATT would reduce revenue by $10 billion for all of 2022.
Meta and Snap over past 12 months
CNBC
In its most recent earnings call in October, as Meta’s stock sank in extended trading, CEO Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged a multitude of headwinds facing the company, including the economy, ATT and competition — and he was left thanking the remaining investors for their patience.
“I think that those who are patient and invest with us will be rewarded,” Zuckerberg said.
So far in 2023, there have been some rewards. Meta and Snap are both up more than 22% as January comes to a close. But revenue growth isn’t expected to pick back up until the second half of the year.
Analysts expect Snap to show fourth-quarter growth of less than 1%, followed by expansion of 1.6% in the current period, according to Refinitv.
‘Little bit of a rebound’
Meta, whose ad business is more than 20 times the size of Snap’s, is expected to report a third straight quarter of declines — and its steepest drop yet — at more than 6%, according to Refinitiv. Revenue is expected to fall another 2.8% in the first quarter, before sub-1% growth returns in the second period.
Since April 2021, when Apple’s ATT update went into effect, Meta has been working on improving its advertising technology and has been utilizing data from other sources. Some retailers, for instance, told CNBC that they’ve been porting their customer data from their Shopify websites into Meta’s platforms, which has helped improve the ability for Meta to target personalized ads to users.
“There’s some signals that maybe Facebook is seeing a little bit of a turnaround in ad spending,” said Debra Williamson, an analyst at research firm Insider Intelligence.
However, TikTok has driven consumers from stagnant updates to short videos, and Facebook has been slow to catch up. Meanwhile, even with Meta’s incremental improvements to its ad system, the impact of Apple’s privacy change was so severe that Facebook and Instagram are nowhere close to making up for it.
“Facebook has had a lot of challenges with coming up with its own tools and metrics to be able to prove the effectiveness of those ads,” Williamson said. “I think it’s getting better at that, so I’m hopeful that we will see maybe a bit of a rebound for Facebook compared to the past couple of quarters.”
Google’s business has been less harmed by Apple’s moves, but it’s still being hit hard by the economic slowdown and by TikTok. Growth at Alphabet is expected to come in below 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and slowly build in 2023, not reaching double digits until the last period of the year.
“Among the existing players, TikTok is expected to be the largest share gainer within Digital Video advertising over the next two years,” Cowen analysts wrote. They estimate TikTok will capture 8% of budgets in 2024, up from 6% last year.
Amazon’s ad business has also made major inroads, as e-retailers show their willingness to pay big bucks to promote their brands on the company’s site and across its various services. According to Insider Intelligence, Amazon captured 13% of the digital ad market last year, and in the third quarter its ad business grew by 25% even as overall revenue missed estimates.
Analysts expect Amazon’s ad unit to show growth of 17% in the fourth quarter, well ahead of its peers, and to stick in the mid-teens throughout 2023, according to FactSet.
And then there’s Netflix, which has added advertising as a revenue stream. The company debuted a new ad-supported streaming tier in November that costs $6.99 a month.
“Netflix is expected to climb from 0% of budgets in 2022 to nearly ~4% of Digital Video ad spend by 2024,” the Cowen analysts said.
Still, the biggest uncertainty looming over this year’s online ad market is the shaky economy, said Barton Crockett, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities. He has a hold rating on Meta, Snap, Amazon and Netflix, but recommends buying Alphabet and Apple, according to FactSet.
If the economy improves, “things that are very economically sensitive, like advertising, will be an attraction for investors across the spectrum,” Crockett said. “That could be great for everyone in this group.”
It’s a giant and risky bet. The U.S. Department of Commerce said last week that consumer spending dropped 0.2% in December, indicating that people are still holding on to their cash.
“In that circumstance, it will be hard for there to be any kind of meaningful expansion of ad spend,” Crockett said.
Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng speaks to reporters at the electric carmaker’s stand at the IAA auto show in Munich, Germany on September 8, 2025.
Arjun Kharpal | CNBC
Germany this week played host to one of the world’s biggest auto shows — but in the heartland of Europe’s auto industry, it was buzzy Chinese electric car companies looking to outshine some of the region’s biggest brands on their home turf.
The IAA Mobility conference in Munich was packed full of companies with huge stands showing off their latest cars and technology. Among some of the biggest displays were those from Chinese electric car companies, underscoring their ambitions to expand beyond China.
Europe has become a focal point for the Asian firms. It’s a market where the traditional automakers are seen to be lagging in the development of electric vehicles, even as they ramp up releases of new cars. At the same time, Tesla, which was for so long seen as the electric vehicle market leader, has seen sales decline in the region.
Despite Chinese EV makers facing tariffs from the European Union, players from the world’s second-largest economy have responded to the ramping up of competition by setting aggressive sales and expansion targets.
“The current growth of Xpeng globally is faster than we have expected,” He Xiaopeng, the CEO of Xpeng told CNBC in an interview this week.
Aggressive expansion plans
Chinese carmakers who spoke to CNBC at the IAA show signaled their ambitious expansion plans.
Xpeng’s He said in an interview that the company is looking to launch its mass-market Mona series in Europe next year. In China, Xpeng’s Mona cars start at the equivalent of just under $17,000. Bringing this to Europe would add some serious price competition.
Meanwhile, Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) is targeting rapid growth of its sales in Europe. Wei Haigang, president of GAC International, told CNBC that the company aims to sell around 3,000 cars in Europe this year and at least 50,000 units by 2027. GAC also announced plans to bring two EVs — the Aion V and Aion UT — to Europe. Leapmotor was also in attendance with their own stand.
There are signs that Chinese players have made early in roads into Europe. The market share of Chinese car brands in Europe nearly doubled in the first half of the year versus the same period in 2024, though it still remains low at just over 5%, according to Jato Dynamics.
“The significant presence of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers at the IAA Mobility, signals their growing ambitions and confidence in the European market,” Murtuza Ali, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.
Tech and gadgets in focus
Many of the Chinese car firms have positioned themselves as technology companies, much like Tesla, and their cars highlight that.
Many of the electric vehicles have big screens equipped with flashy interfaces and voice assistants. And in a bid to lure buyers, some companies have included additional gadgets.
For example, GAC’s Aion V sported a refrigerator as well as a massage function as part of the seating.
The Aion V is one of the cars GAC is launching in Europe as it looks to expand its presence in the region. The Aion V is on display at the company’s stand at the IAA Mobility auto show in Munich, Germany on September 9, 2025.
Arjun Kharpal | CNBC
This is one way that the Chinese players sought to differentiate themselves from legacy brands.
“The chances of success for Chinese automakers are strong, especially as they have an edge in terms of affordability, battery technology, and production scale,” Counterpoint’s Ali said.
Europe’s carmakers push back
Legacy carmakers sought to flex their own muscles at the IAA with Volskwagen, BMW and Mercedes having among the biggest stands at the show. Mercedes in particular had advertising displayed all across the front entrance of the event.
BMW, like the Chinese players, had a big focus on technology by talking up its so-called “superbrain architecture,” which replaces hardware with a centralized computer system. BMW, which introduced the iX3 at the event, and chipmaker Qualcomm also announced assisted driving software that the two companies co-developed.
Volkswagen and French auto firm Renault also showed off some new electric cars.
Regardless of the product blitz, there are still concerns that European companies are not moving fast enough. BMW’s new iX3 is based on the electric vehicle platform it first debuted two years ago. Meanwhile, Chinese EV makers have been quick in bringing out and launching newer models.
“A commitment to legacy structures and incrementalism has slowed its ability to build and leverage a robust EV ecosystem, leaving it behind fast moving rivals,” Tammy Madsen, professor of management at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University, said of BMW.
While European autos have a strong brand history and their CEOs acknowledged and welcomed the competition this week in interviews with CNBC, the Chinese are not letting up.
“Europe’s automakers still hold significant brand value and legacy. The challenge for them lies in achieving production at scale and adopting new technologies faster,” Counterpoint’s Ali said.
“The Chinese surely are not waiting for anyone to catch-up and are making significant gains.”
Marc Benioff is keeping an eye on Palantir.
The co-founder and CEO of sales and customer service management software company Salesforce is well aware that investors are betting big on Palantir, which offers data management software to businesses and government agencies.
“Oh my gosh. I am so inspired by that company,” Benioff told CNBC’s Morgan Brennan in a Tuesday interview at Goldman Sachs‘ Communacopia+Technology conference in San Francisco. “I mean, not just because they have 100 times, you know, multiple on their revenue, which I would love to have that too. Maybe it’ll have 1000 times on their revenue soon.”
Salesforce, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, remains 10 times larger than Palantir by revenue, with over $10 billion in revenue during the latest quarter. But Palantir is growing 48%, compared with 10% for Salesforce.
Benioff added that Palantir’s prices are “the most expensive enterprise software I’ve ever seen.”
“Maybe I’m not charging enough,” he said.
It wasn’t Benioff’s first time talking about Palantir. Last week, Benioff referenced Palantir’s “extraordinary” prices in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer, saying Salesforce offers a “very competitive product at a much lower cost.”
The next day, TBPN podcast hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays asked for a response from Alex Karp, Palantir’s co-founder and CEO.
“We are very focused on value creation, and we ask to be modestly compensated for that value,” Karp said.
The companies sometimes compete for government deals, and Benioff touted a recent win over Palantir for a U.S. Army contract.
Palantir started in 2003, four years after Salesforce. But while Salesforce went public in 2004, Palantir arrived on the New York Stock Exchange in 2020.
Palantir’s market capitalization stands at $406 billion, while Salesforce is worth $231 billion. And as one of the most frequently traded stocks on Robinhood, Palantir is popular with retail investors.
Salesforce shares are down 27% this year, the worst performance in large-cap tech.
Salesforce and Palantir year to date stock chart.
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