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Lets say youre a politician in a close race and your opponent suffers a stroke. What do you do?
If you are Mehmet Oz running as a Republican for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, what you do is mock your opponents affliction. In August, the Oz campaign released a list of concessions it would offer to the Democrat John Fetterman in a candidates debate, including:
We will allow John to have all of his notes in front of him along with an earpiece so he can have the answers given to him by his staff, in real time. And: We will pay for any additional medical personnel he might need to have on standby.
Ozs derision of his opponents medical condition continued right up until Oz lost the race by more than 250,000 votes. Ozs defeat flipped the Pennsylvania seat from Republican to Democrat, dooming GOP hopes of a Senate majority in 2023.
A growing number of Republicans are now pointing their finger at Donald Trump for the partys disappointments in the 2022 elections, with good reason. Trump elevated election denial as an issue and burdened his party with a lot of election-denying candidatesand voters decisively repudiated them.
But not all of Trumps picks were obviously bad. Oz was for years a successful TV pitchman, trusted by millions of Americans for health advice. The first Muslim nominated for a Senate run by a major party, he advanced Republican claims to represent 21st-century America. Oz got himself tangled up between competing positions on abortion, sometimes in consecutive sentences, precisely because he hoped to position himself as moderate on such issues.
But Ozs decision to campaign as a jerk hurt him. When his opponent got sick, Oz could have drawn on his own medical background for compassion and understanding. Before he succumbed to the allure of TV, Oz was an acclaimed doctor whose innovations transformed the treatment of heart disease. He could have reminded voters of his best human qualities rather than displaying his worst.
The choice to do the opposite was his, not Trumps.
Adam Serwer: The cruelty is the point
And Oz was not unique. Many of the unsuccessful Republican candidates in 2022 offered voters weird, extreme, or obnoxious personas. Among the worst was Blake Masters, a candidate for the U.S. Senate in Arizona. He released photos and campaign videos of himself playing with guns, looking like a sociopath. He lost by nearly five points. Trump endorsed Masters in the end, but Trump wasnt the one who initially selected or funded him. That unsavory distinction belongs to the tech billionaire and Republican donor Peter Thiel, who invested big and early in the campaign of his former university student.Trump-led Republicans have now endured four bad elections in a row.
Performative trolling did not always lead to failure. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis indulged in obnoxious stunts in 2022. He promoted anti-vaccination conspiracy theorists. He used the power of government to punish corporations that dissented from his culture-war policies. He spent $1.5 million of taxpayer money to send asylum seekers to Marthas Vineyard.
But DeSantis was an incumbent executive with a record of accomplishment. Antics intended to enrapture the national Fox News audience could be offset by actions to satisfy his local electorate: restoring the Everglades, raising teacher pay, and reopening public schools early despite COVID risks.
DeSantiss many Republican supporters must now ponder: What happens when and if the governor takes his show on the road? Pragmatic on state concerns, divisive on national issues! plays a little differently in a presidential race than it does at the state level. But the early indications are that hes sticking with divisiveness: A month after his reelection, DeSantis is bidding for the anti-vax vote by promoting extremist allegations from the far fringes that modern vaccines threaten public health.
A generation ago, politicians invested great effort in appearing agreeable: Ronald Reagans warm chuckle, Bill Clintons down-home charm, George W. Bushs smiling affability. By contrast, Donald Trump delighted in name-calling, rudeness, and open disdain. Not even his supporters would have described Trump as an agreeable person. Yet he made it to the White House all the samein part because of this trollish style of politics, which has encouraged others to emulate him.
Ilana E. Strauss: How science explains why some politicians are jerks
Has our hyper-polarized era changed the old rules of politics? James Poniewoziks 2019 book, Audience of One, argues that Trumps ascendancy was the product of a huge shift in media culture. The three big television networks of yore had sought to create the least objectionable program; they aimed to make shows that would offend the fewest viewers. As audiences fractured, however, the marketplace rewarded content that excited ever narrower segments of American society. Reagan and Clinton were replaced by Trump for much the same reason Walter Cronkite was replaced by Sean Hannity.
Its an ingenious theory. But, as Poniewozik acknowledges, democratic politics in a two-party system remains an inescapably broadcast business. Trumps material sold well enough in 2016 to win (with help from FBI Director James Comeys intervention against Hillary Clinton, Russian hackers amplified by the Trump campaign, and the mechanics of the Electoral College). But in 2020, Trump met the political incarnation of the Least Objectionable Program: Joe Biden, who is to politics what Jay Leno was to late-night entertainment.
Trump-led Republicans have now endured four bad elections in a row. In 2018, they lost the House. In 2020, they lost the presidency. In 2021, they lost the Senate. In 2022, they won back the Housebarelybut otherwise failed to score the gains one expects of the opposition party in a midterm. They suffered a net loss of one Senate seat and two governorships. They failed to flip a single chamber in any state legislature. In fact, the Democrats gained control of four: one each in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and both in Michigan.
Plausible theories about why Republicans fared so badly in 2022 abound. The economy? Gas prices fell in the second half of 2022, while the economy continued to grow. Abortion? The Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June, and Republican officeholders began musing almost immediately about a national ban, while draconian restrictions began spreading through the states. Attacks on democracy? In contest after contest, Republicans expressed their contempt for free elections, and independent voters responded by rejecting them.America is a huge country full of decent people who are offended by bullying and cruelty.
All of these factors clearly played a role. But dont under-?weight the impact of the performative obnoxiousness that now pervades Republican messaging. Conservatives have built career paths for young people that start on extremist message boards and lead to jobs on Republican campaigns, then jobs in state and federal offices, and then jobs in conservative media.
Former top Trump-administration officials set up a well-funded dark-money group, Citizens for Sanity, that spent millions to post trolling messages on local TV in battleground states, intended to annoy viewers into voting Republican, such as Protect pregnant men from climate discrimination. The effect was just to make the Republicans seem juvenile.
In 2021, thenHouse Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy posted a video of himself reading aloud from Dr. Seuss to protest the Seuss estates withdrawing some works for being racially insensitive (although he took care to read Green Eggs and Ham, not one of the withdrawn books).
Trump himself often seemed to borrow his scripts from a Borscht Belt insult comicfor instance, performing imagined dialogues making fun of his opponents adult children during the 2020 campaign.
This is not a both sides story. Democatic candidates dont try to energize their base by owning the conservatives; thats just not a phrase you hear. The Democratic coalition is bigger and looser than the Republican coalition, and its not clear that Democrats even have an obvious base the way that Republicans do. The people who heeded Representative Jim Clyburns endorsement of Joe Biden in South Carolina do not necessarily have much in common with those who knocked on doors for Senator Elizabeth Warrens presidential campaign. Trying to energize all of the Democratic Partys many different bases with deliberate offensiveness against perceived cultural adversaries would likely fizzle at best, and backfire at worst. On the Republican side, however, the politics of performance can beor seemrewarding, at least in the short run.
This pattern of behavior bids fair to repeat itself in 2024. As I write these words at the beginning of 2023, the conservative world is most excited not by the prospect of big legislative action from a Republican House majority, and not by Trumps declared candidacy for president in 2024 or by DeSantiss as-yet-undeclared one, but by the chance to repeat its 2020 attacks on the personal misconduct of President Bidens son Hunter.
In the summer of 2019, the Trump administration put enormous pressure on the newly elected Zelensky administration in Ukraine to announce some kind of criminal investigation of the Biden family. This first round of Trumps project to manufacture an anti-Biden scandal exploded into Trumps first impeachment.
The failure of round one did not deter the Trump campaign. It tried again in 2020. This time, the scandal project was based on sexually explicit photographs and putatively compromising emails featuring Hunter Biden. The story the Trump campaign told about how it obtained these materials sounded dubious: Hunter Biden himself supposedly delivered his computer to a legally blind repairman in Delaware but never returned to retrieve itso the repairman tracked down Rudy Giuliani and handed over a copy of the hard drive. The repairman had also previously given the laptop itself to the FBI. Far-fetched stories can sometimes prove true, and so might this one.
Whatever the origin of the Hunter Biden materials, the authenticity of at least some of which has been confirmed by reputable media outlets, theres no dispute about their impact on the 2020 election. They flopped.
Pro-Trump Republicans could never accept that their go-to tactic had this time failed. Somebody or something else had to be to blame. They decided that this somebody or something was Twitter, which had briefly blocked links to the initial New York Post story on the laptop and its contents.
So now the new Twitterand Elon Musk allies who have been offered privileged access to the companys internal workingsis trying again to elevate the Hunter Biden laptop controversy, and to allege a cover-up involving the press, tech companies, and the national-security establishment. Its all very exciting to the tiny minority of Americans who closely follow political schemes. And its all pushing conservatives and Republicans back onto the same doomed path they followed in the Trump years: stunts and memes and insults and fabricated controversies in place of practical solutions to the real problems everyday people face. The party has lost contact with the sensibility of mainstream America, a huge country full of decent people who are offended by bullying and cruelty.
Theres talk of some kind of review by the Republican National Committee of what went wrong in 2022. If it happens, it will likely focus on organization, fundraising, and technology. For any political operation, there is always room to improve in these areas. But if the party is to thrive in the post-Trump era, it needs to start with something more basic: at least pretend to be nice.
* Lead image source credits: Chris Graythen / Getty; Ed Jones / AFP / Getty; Drew Angerer / Getty; Paul Hennessy / SOPA Images / LightRocket / Getty; Michael M. Santiago / Getty; Brandon Bell / Getty; Win McNamee / Getty; Al Drago / Bloomberg / Getty; Alex Wong / Getty
This article appears in the March 2023 print edition with the headline Party of Trolls. When you buy a book using a link on this page, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.

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Entertainment
Lil Nas X: Rapper arrested and taken to hospital after wandering LA street in underwear
Published
2 hours agoon
August 22, 2025By
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US rapper Lil Nas X has been arrested and taken to hospital after being found walking in his underwear on a Los Angeles street and allegedly charging at officers and punching one.
Police said in a statement that officers responded shortly before 6am on Thursday (2pm UK time) following reports of a naked man, according to Sky’s US partner NBC News.
The LA force said that as officers went to the 11000 block of Ventura Boulevard in Studio City, the man rushed towards them.
“He was transported to a local hospital for a possible overdose and placed under arrest for battery on a police officer,” police said.
A law enforcement source confirmed to NBC News that the suspect was Montero Lamar Hill, also known as Lil Nas X.
The Old Town Road rapper punched an officer twice in the face during the encounter, according to the NBC source.
Officers were unsure whether he was on any substances or in mental distress, the source said.
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A representative for Hill did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
NBC News cited TMZ footage where Hill was seen walking down the middle of Ventura Boulevard at 4am on Thursday in a pair of white briefs and cowboy boots.
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In the videos, Hill tells a driver to “come to the party” in one clip and in another tells the person, “Didn’t I tell you to put the phone down?”
“Uh oh, someone’s going to have to pay for that,” Hill says as he continues to walk away.
In some clips, Hill struts as if he’s on a catwalk, posing for onlookers, and at one point he places an orange traffic cone on his head.
Sports
Red Sox in must-win mode? Are Yankees back? What you should — and shouldn’t — believe in the American League
Published
2 hours agoon
August 22, 2025By
admin
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David SchoenfieldAug 22, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
A few days ago, we checked in on what to believe and what not to in the National League. Well, the American League is perhaps even more chaotic.
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are in the midst of a crucial four-game series at Yankee Stadium — with the final game on “Sunday Night Baseball” at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams will try to make a statement and inch closer to the Toronto Blue Jays at the top of the division while staying ahead in the wild-card race.
The Blue Jays had been hot — except they just lost a series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The Houston Astros were recently shut out three games in a row (and four out of five) but kept their slim hold on first place in the AL West because the Seattle Mariners went 2-7 on a recent road trip, including a brutal three-game wipeout in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers might be back on track, and the Kansas City Royals are suddenly surging.
Let’s check on the current states of overreaction in the AL and make some verdicts.
Overreaction: Judge! Bellinger! Stanton! The Yankees are back, baby!
Calm down there, tiger. The Yankees took two of three from Minnesota. They scored 24 runs in sweeping St. Louis, and then they bashed nine home runs in a win over Tampa Bay.
The middle of the order is leading the way. Aaron Judge is back off the injured list. Cody Bellinger has proven to be one of the most unheralded pickups of last offseason, on his way to his most home runs since his MVP season of 2019. The big shocker has been Giancarlo Stanton, though. He missed the first two-plus months of the season because of what was described as a double tennis elbow, as if he had spent the offseason working on his backhand slice, preparing for the French Open. In 46 games since returning in mid-June, he’s hitting .311/.389/..642, producing what is easily his highest OPS since his MVP season of 2017, and has been so hot that the Yankees played him a few games in right field to keep his bat in the lineup (allowing Judge to DH while working on returning to the field) even though Stanton is less mobile than the monuments in center field.
So, it has been a nice stretch after losing records in June and July. But there are still issues. Max Fried, who starts Friday night, is scuffling, with a 6.80 ERA over his past eight starts. He hasn’t had a quality start since June. The back of the bullpen is still sorting out things, as David Bednar has replaced Devin Williams as the closer (and blew the save Wednesday, although the Yankees won in extra innings), but Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, two other trade deadline acquisitions, haven’t made an impact. There could still be a terrific bullpen here, especially if Williams gets straightened out, but let’s hold off on declaring that.
And Judge still hasn’t played the outfield. Though manager Aaron Boone played Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there is less ground to cover, he hasn’t played Stanton in the field on the road, leaving him as a part-time player for now. Ryan McMahon, the team’s other big deadline move, has been getting on base but has one home run in 22 games with the Yankees.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. You can make the argument that if everything was clicking for the Yankees, they have the most upside and deepest roster in the AL: a potential ace in Fried, a potential No. 2 in Carlos Rodon, a potential wipeout bullpen, the best hitter in the sport in Judge and power up and down the lineup. They haven’t played that well against the top teams in the AL, however, including a combined 4-13 record against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and Fried’s current struggles are a big concern. Let’s not put the Yankees in the playoffs yet.
Overreaction: The Red Sox have to win this series against the Yankees
The likeliest scenario in a four-game series between two evenly matched teams is, of course, a split. That would leave the Red Sox where they started the series, one game behind the Yankees and in third place in the AL East, but potentially in a much tighter wild-card picture. Still, after winning their first five games in August, the Red Sox went 3-7 in their past 10 games entering the Yankees series, so that makes this series a little more pressure-packed even for a late-August Red Sox-Yankees showdown.
Most frustrating, the Red Sox lost two games in extra innings in that 3-7 stretch and also lost both games that Garrett Crochet started. He had one bad start against the Houston Astros, lasting four innings in his worst start of the season, and then the bullpen blew a 3-1 lead to the Miami Marlins as Greg Weissert and Steven Matz allowed ninth-inning home runs when Aroldis Chapman was unavailable to close. Chapman had pitched the previous games and had thrown only 14 pitches over the two outings, so it was a dubious decision by manager Alex Cora (Chapman had appeared in three consecutive games earlier in the season).
One key for the Red Sox down the stretch: How much will Cora push his top pitchers? Crochet is already past his innings total of 2024 and hasn’t pitched on four days’ rest since June 18, with rest periods of seven and nine days during that span. Chapman has had a dominant season but has pitched just 48 innings in 53 appearances and has rarely made even back-to-back outings. The Yankees series begins a stretch for Boston of 13 games in 13 days and 19 in 20, so Cora will have to make some decisions with his rotation.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Is there urgency to turn things around? Of course. Is this a do-or-die series? No, it’s still too early to make that claim, especially with the Red Sox still in a solid wild-card position (granted, chasing down the Blue Jays remains the ultimate goal). On the other hand, this eight-game road trip to New York and Baltimore looms large, given the Red Sox are just 28-34 on the road– and the Orioles have been playing better of late. A bad road trip could be disastrous. Check back next week.
Overreaction: The Blue Jays — not the Tigers — are now the best team in the AL
The Blue Jays have gone 48-26 since May 28 — the second-best record in the majors behind Milwaukee since that date. They have the highest OPS in the majors since then and only the Brewers are close to them in runs scored (Boston has scored the third-most runs and is 50 runs behind the Blue Jays since May 28). It hasn’t been just Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette either. George Springer and Addison Barger have mashed, Daulton Varsho has had a big August and role players such as Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, Ernie Clement and Tyler Heineman have been excellent. Toronto has a sneaky deep lineup.
Oh, and Max Scherzer has suddenly reeled off five straight quality starts.
On the other hand, the Tigers seem back on track after that stretch in July when they lost 11 of 12. They’ve won four series in a row, granted, three of those were against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and diminished Minnesota Twins, but they also just swept the Astros, knocking around Framber Valdez in the series finale Wednesday and tossing shutouts in the other two wins. Charlie Morton has helped stabilize the rotation with three excellent starts in his four turns with the Tigers, and the bullpen — with added reinforcements from the trade deadline — has been much better in August after struggling in July. Kerry Carpenter has also been mashing since his return in late July.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. If you’re buying Scherzer and Eric Lauer as frontline starters and all the surprising offensive performances, then it’s not unreasonable to suggest the Blue Jays are the team to beat. Some of those offensive numbers are skewed by that crazy series at Coors Field when they scored 45 runs in three games, however, and when considering the entire season, the Tigers still have the better run differential (as do the Yankees and Red Sox). The Jays’ bandwagon is gaining momentum, but the AL still feels like one big group of teams that will all finish 92-70.
Overreaction: The Astros can’t hit, and the Mariners can’t pitch
Does anyone want to win the AL West? It doesn’t seem like it (you can even throw in the Texas Rangers, who were tied with the Mariners on July 30 but have gone 6-13 since then in playing a difficult August schedule). The Astros are hitting just .226 in August with a .649 OPS. Carlos Correa has been their best hitter, so it’s hard to criticize that trade, but Jesus Sanchez has hit .150 with one RBI for Houston while rookie Cam Smith has fallen into a slump. Getting back Yordan Alvarez, who just began a rehab assignment, will be a big lift if he’s healthy.
As for the Mariners, they have their top five starters healthy for the first time, but this road trip exposed their secret: Their rotation is vastly overrated. The Mariners are 26th in rotation ERA on the road. Bryan Woo is the only starter of those five with an ERA under 5.00 on the road. Logan Gilbert has a 2.22 ERA at home and 6.00 on the road. Luis Castillo‘s road OPS is nearly 300 points higher than it is at home. They pitch well at home because T-Mobile Park is such a pitcher-friendly park. The Mariners still have two road trips remaining: a nine-game trip to Cleveland, Tampa and Atlanta, and then a six-game trip to Kansas City and Houston.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Both concerns are legitimate. The Astros’ offense hasn’t been terrible this season, but it rates as middle of the pack, and Correa is replacing the injured Isaac Paredes, so he’s not an upgrade. Seattle’s rotation struggles on the road — and lack of bullpen depth — are perhaps an even bigger concern. The season series is tied 5-5. FanGraphs projects a dead heat for the division title. The teams will meet once more in Houston during the second-to-last weekend of the regular season — and that series might decide the AL West.
Overreaction: The Royals will make the playoffs
As the Red Sox, Astros and Mariners have stumbled over the past 10 games, it opened the door for the Royals, who won five in a row and seven of eight to inch closer in the wild-card race (with Cleveland right there, as well). Bobby Witt Jr. is raking in August, Vinnie Pasquantino has been crushing home runs and, further proof of the unpredictability of the trade deadline, Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier, two seemingly minor pickups, have been outstanding.
The Royals are doing this without Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, but Noah Cameron continues to pitch well and fellow rookie Ryan Bergert, who came over in the Freddy Fermin trade, has delivered three good starts. Just like last year’s team, the Royals have that spark of optimism rising at the right time.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. We’ll learn more about the Royals with this weekend’s series in Detroit and then the rematch next weekend in Kansas City. Otherwise, however, their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way, including a season-ending road trip to Anaheim and Sacramento against two teams that will be playing out the string. The vibes are good. The Royals will sneak in as a wild-card team.
Sports
Overreactions to the dog days of August: Brewers’ dominance, Mets’ struggles and more from the NL
Published
2 hours agoon
August 22, 2025By
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David SchoenfieldAug 19, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Whew. That was some weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers kept winning — until they finally lost. The New York Mets kept losing — until they finally won. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big statement, the Philadelphia Phillies suffered a crushing injury, and the Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats remain cold.
What’s going on with these National League contenders? With fan bases in euphoria or despair, let’s make some verdicts on those current states of overreaction.
Overreaction: The Brewers are unquestionably MLB’s best team
“Unquestionably” is a loaded word, especially since we’re writing this right after the Brewers reeled off 14 consecutive victories and won a remarkable 29 of 33 games. They became just the 11th team this century to win at least 14 in a row, and you don’t fluke your way to a 14-game winning streak: Each of the previous 10 teams to win that many in a row made the playoffs, and four won 100 games. Baseball being baseball, however, none won the World Series.
The Brewers were just the sixth team this century to win 29 of 33. Cleveland won 30 of 33 in 2017, riding a 22-game winning streak that began in late August. That team, which finished with 102 wins but lost the wild-card series to the New York Yankees, resembled these Brewers as a small-market, scrappy underdog. The Dodgers in 2017 and 2022 and the A’s in 2001 and 2002 also won 29 of 33. None of these teams won the World Series, either.
For the season, the Brewers have five more wins than the Detroit Tigers while easily leading the majors in run differential at plus-168, with the Cubs a distant second at plus-110. Those figures seem to suggest the Brewers are clearly the best team, with a nice balance of starting pitching (No. 1 in ERA), relief pitching (No. 10 in ERA and No. 8 in win probability added), offense (No. 1 in runs scored), defense (No. 7 in defensive runs saved) and baserunning (No. 2 in stolen bases). None of their position players were All-Stars, but other than shortstop Joey Ortiz the Brewers roll out a lineup that usually features eight average-or-better hitters, with Christian Yelich heating up and Andrew Vaughn on a tear since he joined the club.
On the other hand, via Clay Davenport’s third-order wins and losses, which project a team’s winning percentage based on underlying statistics adjusted for quality of opponents, the Brewers are neck-and-neck with the Cubs, with both teams a few projected wins behind the Yankees. Essentially, the Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than might otherwise be expected based on statistics. Indeed, the Brewers lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position while holding their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.
Those underlying stats, though, include the first four games of the season, when the Brewers went 0-4 and allowed 47 runs. Several of those relievers who got pounded early on are no longer in the bullpen, and ever since the Brewers sorted out their relief arms, the pen has been outstanding: It’s sixth in ERA and third in lowest OPS allowed since May 1.
Then factor in that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation (although Misiorowski struggled in his last start following a two-week stint on the injured list). The Brewers are also the best baserunning team in the majors, which leads to a few extra runs above expectation.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers look like the most well-rounded team in the majors, particularly if Yelich and Vaughn keep providing power in the middle of the order. They have played well against good teams: 6-0 against the Dodgers, 3-0 against the Phillies and Boston Red Sox, 4-2 against the New York Mets and 7-3 against the Cincinnati Reds. They’re 5-4 against the Cubs with four games left in the five-game series. None of this guarantees a World Series, but they’re on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team going right now.
Overreaction: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles are a big concern
On July 30, PCA went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs in a 10-3 victory for the Cubs over the Brewers. He was hitting .272/.309/.559, playing electrifying defense in center field, and was the leader in the NL MVP race with 5.7 fWAR, more than a win higher than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Brewers had started to get hot, but the Cubs, after leading the NL Central most of the season, were just a game behind in the standings.
July 31 was an off day. Then the calendar flipped to August and Crow-Armstrong entered a slump that has featured no dying quails, no gorks, no ground balls with eyes. He’s 8-for-52 in August with no home runs, one RBI and two runs scored. The Cubs, averaging 5.3 runs per game through the end of July, are at just 2.75 runs per game in August and have seen the Brewers build a big lead in the division.
Crow-Armstrong’s slump isn’t necessarily a surprise. Analysts have been predicting regression for some time due to one obvious flaw in PCA’s game: He swings at everything. He has the fifth-highest chase rate among qualified batters, swinging at over 42% of pitches out of the strike zone. It seemed likely that it was only a matter of time before pitchers figured out how to exploit Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness.
Doubling down on the regression predictions, PCA has produced strong power numbers despite a below-average hard-hit rate (44th percentile) and average exit velocity (47th percentile). Although raw power isn’t always necessary to produce extra-base power — see Jose Altuve — those metrics were a red flag that PCA might have been overachieving.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. OK, here’s the odd thing: PCA’s chase rate has improved in August to just 28%, but that hasn’t translated to success. His hard-hit rate isn’t much lower than it was the rest of the season (although his average fly ball distance has dropped about 20 feet). His struggles against left-handers are real: After slugging .600 against them in April, he has hit .186 and slugged .390 against them since May 1. He’ll start hitting again at some point, but it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to hit like he did from April through July.
It’s not all on PCA, however. Kyle Tucker has been just as bad in August (.148, no home runs, one RBI). Michael Busch is hitting .151. Seiya Suzuki has only one home run. Those four had carried the offense, and all are scuffling at once. For the Cubs to rebound, they need this entire group to get back on track. Put it this way: The Cubs have won just three of their past eight series — and those were against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.
Overreaction: The Mets are doomed and will miss the playoffs
On July 27, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants to improve to 62-44, holding a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. According to FanGraphs, New York’s odds of winning the division stood at 55% and its chances of making the playoffs were nearly 97%. A few days later, the Mets reinforced the bullpen — the club’s biggest weakness — with Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers at the trade deadline (after already acquiring Gregory Soto).
It’s never that easy with the Mets though, is it? The San Diego Padres swept them. The Cleveland Guardians swept them. The Brewers swept them. Helsley lost three games and blew a lead in another outing. The rotation has a 6.22 ERA in August. The Mets lost 14 of 16 before finally taking the final two games against the Seattle Mariners this past weekend to temporarily ease the panic level from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division and the Mets have dropped to the third wild-card position, just one game ahead of the Reds. The team with the highest payroll in the sport is in very real danger of missing the playoffs.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The bullpen issues are still a concern given Helsley’s struggles, and Rogers has fanned just one of the 42 batters he has faced since joining the Mets. Still, this team is loaded with talent, as reflected in FanGraphs’ playoffs odds, which gave the Mets an 86% chance of making the postseason entering Monday (with the Reds at 14%). One note, however: The Reds lead the season series 2 games to 1, which gives them the tiebreaker edge if the teams finish with the same record. A three-game set in Cincinnati in early September looms as one of the biggest series the rest of the season. Mets fans have certainly earned the right to brood over the team’s current state of play, but the team remains favored to at least squeak out a wild card.
Overreaction: Zack Wheeler’s absence is a big problem for the Phillies
The Phillies’ ace just went on the IL because of a blood clot near his right shoulder, with no timetable on a potential return. The injury is serious enough that his availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Manager Rob Thomson said the team has enough rotation depth to battle on without Wheeler, but there are some other issues there as well:
• Ranger Suarez has a 5.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.
• Aaron Nola was activated from the IL on Sunday to replace Wheeler for his first MLB start in three months and gave up six runs in 2⅓ innings, raising his season ERA to 6.92.
• Taijuan Walker has a 3.34 ERA but also a 4.73 FIP and probably isn’t someone you would feel comfortable starting in a playoff series.
• Even Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent all season, with a 4.21 ERA.
Minus Wheeler, that arguably leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the team’s only sure-thing reliable starter at the moment. Though a trip to the playoffs certainly looks secure, all this opens the door for the Mets to make it a race for the division title.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Making the playoffs is one thing, but it’s also about peaking at the right time, and given the scary nature of Wheeler’s injury, the Phillies might not end up peaking when they need to. Nola certainly can’t be counted on right now and Suarez has suddenly struggled a bit to miss bats. There’s time here for Nola and Suarez to fix things, and the bullpen has been strengthened with the additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, but even with Wheeler, the Phillies are just 22-18 since the beginning of July. Indeed, their ultimate hopes might rest on an offense that has let them down the past two postseasons and hasn’t been great this season aside from Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t score runs, it won’t matter who is on the mound.
Overreaction: The Dodgers just buried the Padres with their three-game sweep
It was a statement series: The Dodgers, battled, bruised and slumping, had fallen a game behind the Padres in the NL West. But they swept the Padres at Dodger Stadium behind stellar outings from Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell, and a clutch Mookie Betts home run to cap a rally from a 4-0 deficit. Still the kings of the NL West, right?
After all, the Dodgers are finally rolling out that dream rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw are all healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. Only Roki Sasaki is missing. Yamamoto has been solid all season, Ohtani ramped up to 80 pitches in his last start, Glasnow has a 2.50 ERA since returning from the IL in July, Snell has reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts, and even Kershaw, while not racking up many strikeouts, has lowered his season ERA to 3.01. That group should carry the Dodgers to their 12th division title in the past 13 seasons.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Calm down. One great series does not mean the Dodgers are suddenly fixed or that the Padres will fade away. The Dodgers’ bullpen is still battling injuries, Betts still has a sub-.700 OPS and injuries have forced them to play Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Buddy Kennedy in the infield. Check back after next weekend, when the Padres host the Dodgers for their final regular-season series of 2025.
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