Breaking down how the Bruins have been so dominant — and how long it can last
The Boston Bruins are having a special sort of season.
It’s a season with historic potential. And one that’s way off-script.
The Bruins weren’t supposed to be a powerhouse, with an NHL-leading 83 points and jaw-dropping 39-7-5 record. Boston didn’t figure to be so dominant, sitting second overall in goals (3.73) and first in goals-against (2.12) with the league’s best penalty kill (85.8%) and a top-five power play (25.1%) through 51 games.
No, Boston was predicted to be in trouble.
Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy would miss the start of the season following hip and shoulder surgery, respectively. Patrice Bergeron‘s future was in question, with talk he might retire. The team as a whole was aging. And after a first-round playoff loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, it was hard to say in what direction the Bruins were headed.
Straight to the top, it turned out.
The Bruins have been high-stepping their way through the competition to reach unprecedented heights.
Boston set a league mark right out of the gate with the most home wins to start a season (14 straight) and became the first club to win 16 of its opening 18 games since the 1929-30 Bruins. When Boston beat Montreal on Jan. 24, it became the fastest team to collect 80 points, doing so in just 47 games.
The 1976-77 Canadiens hold the record for most points in a season at 132. Can Boston top that? Anything — and everything — feels possible.
The Bruins have been so consistent, they didn’t suffer back-to-back losses until game No. 49, going 0-2-1 before rebounding with a win prior to their All-Star break and bye week.
Speaking of All-Stars, Boston has them in spades (and not just David Pastrnak and Linus Ullmark, who were voted to be part of the league’s annual festivities earlier this month). This team’s talent runs deep — something that’s new this season.
What has made the Bruins so good? Can their success be sustained through the second half? And do they have what it takes to win the Stanley Cup?
We’re breaking down all things Bruins before Boston resumes its schedule Saturday in a meeting with Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC and the ESPN App).
How the Bruins were built
Marchand’s red-rimmed eyes spoke volumes. His emotionally hushed voice did the rest.
It was eight months ago when the Bruins’ top-line winger met the media following Boston’s 3-2 loss to Carolina in Game 7 of their opening-round playoff series. Marchand was still processing the crushing defeat — and the uncertainty that lay ahead for Bergeron and the rest of the team — when he spoke frankly about the Bruins’ window beginning to close.
“You only get a few opportunities like these throughout your career, where you have a legit chance at going far,” Marchand said. “And we thought we had that this year. It hurts.”
That postseason exodus launched a summer of speculation about the club’s future and endlessly circuitous debates that arrived back at the same question: Had the Bruins’ era as a perennial Stanley Cup contender come to an end?
Last May, it was easy to say yes.
Today? Not so much.
Boston didn’t need a rebuild to become the NHL’s best team. The Bruins just had to strategically enhance a foundation that was already firm.
Marchand and McAvoy would resurface in due time from their rehabilitations. Until then, Boston had superstar Pastrnak to lead the way for presumably another standout season — the last of his current contract — and he has excelled well past expectations with 38 goals and 72 points through 51 games.
Jake DeBrusk was back as well, trade request forgotten and two-year extension in hand, to contribute 30 points in 36 games before fracturing a fibula in the Winter Classic. (He should be back in the next week or so.) Taylor Hall remains a top-six stalwart, good for 20-plus goals. (He entered the break with 15.)
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The Bruins had previously upgraded their back end, trading with Anaheim for Hampus Lindholm in March, and finalizing an eight-year, $52 million extension to lock him up long term. In goal, the Bruins transitioned last season from a recently retired Tuukka Rask to the full-time, one-two punch of Ullmark (who signed a four-year, $20 million free agent contract in July 2021) and Jeremy Swayman (whom the Bruins’ drafted 111th overall in 2017).
Boston had good bones, regardless of the outcome against Carolina. But it was fair to wonder if time was running out. Bergeron’s fate was still to be determined by late last spring. So general manager Don Sweeney got to work on other things.
The first domino to fall came behind the bench when Sweeney fired coach Bruce Cassidy on June 6. Cassidy had held the position since February 2017, a span of 399 games, and posted a 245-108-46 record, six consecutive playoff appearances and a run to the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.
Sweeney replaced Cassidy on July 3 with Jim Montgomery, giving the veteran coach his first head role since being let go by Dallas in December 2019 for unprofessional conduct. Montgomery subsequently revealed he sought counseling for alcohol abuse and checked in to an in-patient residential program.
Sweeney then turned his attention to the roster. He targeted depth upfront in a July 13 trade that sent Erik Haula to the New Jersey Devils for Pavel Zacha. The versatile Zacha was a seamless fit, playing at center or on either wing, on every line and any situation. His 11 goals and 35 points already are approaching career highs. And Zacha is sticking around with the Bruins, who inked him to a four-year, $19 million contract in January.
The same day Boston grabbed Zacha, Sweeney added forward A.J. Greer on a two-year, $1.525 million deal. The 26-year-old has been a valuable bottom-six presence in his best pro season with five goals and nine points in 36 games.
It was a good start. But Boston would soon add bigger building blocks.
On Aug. 8, the Bruins announced Bergeron would return on a one-year, $2.5 million contract. The 37-year-old hasn’t missed a beat in his 19th season, emerging as the runaway Selke Trophy favorite (again) and putting up strong numbers (38 points).
The same day Boston signed Bergeron, David Krejci, who spent the 2021-22 season playing in his native Czech Republic, made his NHL comeback official on a one-year, $1 million contract. As expected, Krejci has anchored Boston’s second line with a rotating crop of wingers and generated impressive results (42 points in 46 games).
All that incoming depth meant players already in the fold — such as Trent Frederic — had to step up or risk being left behind. The Bruins’ first-round pick in 2016 had underwhelmed in previous seasons. Under Montgomery, Frederic has thrived in a bottom-six spot and already has produced career-best totals with 10 goals (all at 5-on-5) and 19 points in 48 games.
Frederic’s breakout season was a long time coming. It’s also one of many Boston has enjoyed all at once.
Lindholm has been a revelation, from filling in for McAvoy early on to garnering Norris Trophy buzz for his continued excellence. In what’s shaping up to be the best season of his career (with 33 points in 51 games), he has brought an added dimension to Boston’s blue line that complements the top pairing of McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk.
And then there’s Ullmark.
Boston’s goaltender is having the season of his life, leading the NHL in wins (26), save percentage (.937) and goals-against average (1.90). Ullmark has called the success “overwhelming” while pointedly avoiding potential complacency to ensure it keeps going. That has helped make him arguably the most dominant No. 1 netminder in the league. And Swayman has been solid behind Ullmark at 12-3-4 with a .914 SV%.
Frankly, it’s hard to find any gaps in Boston’s current roster construction. Montgomery has brought a fresh voice and perspective that has rejuvenated Bruins old and new. Multiple players are producing at levels they haven’t touched in past seasons. It’s everything Boston could ask for.
Does the Bruins’ success to this point mean the building is done? Will Sweeney add before the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline? Can he risk messing with an incomparable team chemistry? Or would the Bruins come to regret standing pat while others improve?
Only time will tell. — Kristen Shilton
What the numbers say
The Boston Bruins’ dominance can be quantified. No matter if it’s through traditional stats or advanced analytics, they all tell the same story: The Bruins are on another level this season.
“If there’s a performance-based metric, they’re right near the very top of it without fail,” said Dimitri Filipovic, an analytics analyst who hosts “The Hockey PDOcast” on Sportsnet. “Whether it’s specifically during 5-on-5 play or across all situations, no one concedes fewer goals against than they do. But they also score goals themselves at the second-highest rate in both game states. The same trends apply to special teams.”
Entering Thursday night’s action, the Bruins had a goal differential of plus-81. That was 37 goals better than the second-best team in the NHL in that category, the Dallas Stars at plus-44.
The Bruins’ defense is the catalyst for that. Boston has given up 111 goals in 51 games, which was 24 fewer than the New Jersey Devils. Their 2.12 goals-against per game leads the NHL; if that holds, it will make the Bruins the best defensive team in nine seasons, at a time when goal scoring continues to increase in the NHL year over year.
Boston has caught that offensive wave too. Its 3.73 goals per game ranks second in the NHL to a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If that average holds, this would be the highest-scoring Bruins team since the 1992-93 edition (3.95 goals per game) that saw center Adam Oates amass 142 points.
The Bruins were a middling offensive team last season, ranking 15th in goals per game (3.09). So what changed?
According to Stathletes, the Bruins have altered their system slightly in the attacking zone. Last season at 5-on-5, only 23% of their shot attempts came off weakside passes; this season, it’s at 29.3%, as they are attempting and completing more cross-ice passes in the offensive zone.
Another change, per Stathletes: The Bruins are using their one-timers more. Last season, they averaged 8.0 one-timer shot attempts per game; this season, that number has climbed to 13.2.
“They attack the middle of the ice with regularity,” Filipovic said. “They have one of the very best goal scorers in the league. They also get contributions from pretty much everyone. They can create a healthy supply of chances from a variety of sources, whether it be off the rush, following a cycle sequence or creating a turnover with their forecheck. It’s a well-oiled machine right now to say the least.”
On special teams, it’s more of the same. The Bruins have the fifth-best power play in the NHL (25.1%) and the No. 1 penalty kill (85.8%). Pastrnak (28 points) and Marchand (23 points) have provided the biggest spark with the man advantage, but McAvoy has been great in his second season as the primary point man (16 points in 38 games), and is on track to set a career high in power-play efficiency.
But the leap from last season’s 15th-ranked power play (21.2%) to this season’s success is also a tribute to Boston’s renewed depth. Lindholm has chipped in nine points. Krejci has 10 points. One NHL veteran said the simple function of having three right-handed centers in Bergeron, Krejci and Charlie Coyle makes their power play more effective. “They don’t have to spend that extra split-second to make a play. The angles are already there on the power play,” he said.
As for the penalty kill … hey, it’s what the Patrice Bergeron Boston Bruins do. Since Bergeron entered the NHL in 2003-04, the Bruins are tied with the St. Louis Blues for the best penalty kill over that 1,455-game stretch at 83.1%.
They’re just as dominant at even strength. The Bruins lead all teams with a .945 EV save percentage and are third behind the Seattle Kraken and San Jose Sharks in shooting percentage (7.7%).
As good as their goaltending numbers are, it’s the Bruins’ 5-on-5 defense that has the analytics community dumbstruck.
“Honestly, I suspect the public numbers are underrating them a bit defensively,” Filipovic said.
He notes there are some disparities in “goals saved above expected” by Ullmark on sites such as Evolving Hockey (25.1), Sportlogiq (14.1) and Money Puck (19.2). Filipovic thinks the Bruins’ goaltending probably nets out on the lower end of that scale, based on everything else the numbers tell us about their defense, including where they give up shots.
Micah Blake McCurdy of Hockey Viz creates shot heat maps for every team. The Bruins’ show them as getting great goaltending, but also creating a great defensive environment for the netminders to thrive in.
“They basically choke off everything around the net and through the middle of the ice,” Filipovic said, while wanting to take nothing away from Ullmark’s season. “Even when you occasionally break through that shell and get into a good spot to shoot from, they’re so quick to contest with active sticks in lanes that the quality of the shot itself has largely been neutralized. It’s about as good of a defensive environment as you can get to play in as a goalie.”
The Bruins are a hard team to score against. They’re a team that can score at will. There’s a reason they’re a Stanley Cup favorite — just ask their opponents. — Greg Wyshynski
What opposing players, coaches say
With what he has accomplished in his career, Sidney Crosby doesn’t impress easily. But even the Pittsburgh Penguins captain couldn’t help but call the Bruins “amazing” when asked about Boston’s dominance this season.
“To see the league as tight as it is, and to see what they’re doing, is even more impressive,” Crosby said. “It’s just their depth at every position, and obviously the leadership core they have there goes a long way too. It’s a combination of all of those things and staying healthy. They deserve a lot of credit. It’s not easy what they’re doing.”
The last team to make it look this easy was the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning. That Lightning team was in position for a while to challenge the regular-season wins and points records, finishing with 62 wins (to match the 1995-96 Red Wings) and 128 points (four shy of the 1976-77 Canadiens).
“They’re clearly the best team in the league,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said of the Bruins. “The thing that stands out for me is that they don’t beat themselves. I think you can probably look at the other 31 teams around the league and there are times when you stumble over your own toes and beat yourselves. I would say that’s one thing Boston doesn’t do. That’s why they’re miles ahead of everyone else.”
The players we spoke with seem to be in awe of what the Bruins have accomplished, marveling at their machine-like efficiency.
“They show why they’ve been at the top of the league all year,” Toronto Maple Leafs captain John Tavares said. “They’re an elite hockey team. You have to be dialed in to every little detail. They defend well, their goalie is having a great year and you have to work for your offense.”
As New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba put it: “They don’t cheat the game. They’re a good team and play a good game.”
One of the common themes in opponents’ praise is the way the Bruins remain confident in what they do through success and adversity.
“They don’t change their game if they’re down or up. They play the same way for a full 60 minutes and that’s been consistent for them,” Lightning forward Corey Perry said.
“We played them last year in the playoffs when I was in Carolina, and that was a battle,” said defenseman Ian Cole, a teammate of Perry. “I think what makes them even more successful this year is their willingness and ability to stick to their game.
“They play this patient but aggressive defensive game where they can create a ton of turnovers, transition pucks and use their skill and go score. They’ve done that better than any team in the league thus far and they’re the best team in our league because of it. It’s a standard that everyone in the league tries to emulate.”
But emulating the Bruins is easier said than done. It’s not just the way they play, but it’s who is playing.
“They’re one of the really well-built teams,” Montreal Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki said. “They’ve got a lot of veteran guys that play the right way. They play their system perfectly. You can’t make any mistakes. You have to make as much opportunity for yourself as you can. They play so well together as five-man units out there on the ice that there’s not much room.”
Perry believes the ascension of Ullmark to Vezina Trophy contender is another critical factor.
“He is having a tremendous year. You have to get those garbage goals and make sure you put them away,” Perry said. “That’s a [testament] to what the Bruins have got. He’s put it all together.”
Others pointed to the arrival of Montgomery.
“I mean, they’ve had a fairly good run before he got there,” one NHL veteran said, noting that the Bruins have only missed the playoffs twice in the past 15 seasons. “But sometimes when you bring a new coach in, it gets everyone’s attention a little bit. Not to say the other guy was doing a bad job, but everyone gets reenergized and refocused.”
Cooper noted that even with a new voice behind the bench, the Bruins are still doing some of the same things they did in the past.
“They still play the exact same D-zone that they played before,” he said. “But I know the new coach is a hell of a coach — what he’s done in junior, what he’s done in college. Am I surprised the team is having the success they’re having? I’m not.” — Shilton and Wyshynksi
Why Boston will win the Stanley Cup
Let’s begin by addressing the elephant in the room:
The Bruins have, at this moment, the NHL’s best record. That puts them on track to earn the Presidents’ Trophy as the league’s top regular-season team. Only two clubs in the salary-cap era — the 2007-08 Red Wings and 2012-13 Blackhawks — have won both a Presidents’ Trophy and Stanley Cup. Only eight teams have ever accomplished the feat. And, most shockingly, only one of the past nine Presidents’ Trophy winners has advanced past the second round of the postseason.
So history wouldn’t be on Boston’s side if it were to finish atop the standings. And yet, so much about these Bruins has already defied the odds and puzzled pundits. Who’s to say Boston can’t overcome any so-called curse associated with dominating for 82 games?
The Bruins steamrolling their way through (almost) all comers is no accident. They are that good. Collecting the 16 playoff victories required to hoist a Cup is never easy. All things being equal (and with an intact, healthy lineup), Boston has the ability to do it.
Here’s why.
The Bruins are no longer a one-line show. In the past, Boston was guilty of being top-heavy and that held them back in the postseason, when depth is at a premium. Sweeney has made moves to correct that, and — perhaps more critically — invested in a coach unafraid of change.
Montgomery makes adjustments where his predecessors relied on staying the course. Boston had leaned on the dominant top unit of Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak to its own detriment; even three exceptional players can’t always perform like a cheat code.
Boston’s new coach seems to get that, and appreciates how this season’s Bruins can ebb and flow over 60 minutes. When Montgomery pivoted from the standard Bergeron line to linking Pastrnak with Zacha and Krejci in a recent game against the Maple Leafs, it sparked a commanding performance from the aptly nicknamed Czech line, including two goals by Zacha. Montgomery said afterward it was the trio’s creativity that made it effective. But he seems to know when and how to push the right buttons.
There’s a trust and buy-in from the Bruins to Montgomery’s system that allowed them to start this season counter to how they finished last season. During the Carolina series, the Bruins struggled on the road, failed to recover when they fell behind and lacked the kind of spark that ultimately propelled the Hurricanes forward. This season, Boston has rallied with the best of them and is tied for the fewest losses (five) when trailing after two periods. There’s no panic. The Bruins don’t try to be something they aren’t. What they are is more than enough.
Then there are elements that are impossible to quantify. Boston wants to win one more Cup for Bergeron. Marchand said as much after the Bruins’ ouster last spring. The stars have aligned to this point and put the team in prime position to deliver.
And even if you can’t measure heart, you can put weight behind statistics. This isn’t a smoke-and-mirrors situation, where the Bruins’ success in one aspect of the game hides their deficiencies somewhere else. Boston is elite in every offensive, defensive and special teams category. (And did we mention the goaltending?) No sleight of hand, no pulling the wool over your eyes. The figures speak for themselves.
The Bruins were bitter after last season. They’ve turned that into something sweet. Sometimes the easiest, most obvious answer actually is the right one. The Bruins can win the Stanley Cup this season. That’s the only outcome that can — and should — satisfy them. — Shilton
Why Boston won’t win the Stanley Cup
It was April 16, 2019. Lightning coach Jon Cooper had just witnessed his team — statistically one of the best in the history of NHL regular seasons — get swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round of the playoffs.
The Jackets had been playing a playoff game every night just to make the cut. The Lightning had been on cruise control for the better part of two months.
“When you have the amount of points we had, it’s a blessing and a curse, in a way. You don’t play any meaningful hockey for a long time. Then all of a sudden, you have to ramp it up. It’s not an excuse. It’s reality,” Cooper said after Game 4. “That’s how it goes: You have a historic regular season, and we had a historic playoff.”
The Bruins are having one of those seasons. Barring a significant collapse, they’re likely to win both the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference in a walk. There have been more stories about Bergeron’s load management down the stretch than any threat to the Bruins’ place in the standings.
So that’s the first concern: that they’ll stroll across the finish line in first place and face some wild-card team that has streaked into the postseason with belief in their game and a hot goaltender. The Lightning can be a cautionary tale for the Bruins’ veteran leaders to share with the group. But the Stanley Cup playoffs are defined by upsets. Boston knows this.
But even if a team catches the Bruins slightly flat-footed, there’s still that whole “finding a way to dismantle a hockey machine” thing.
Let’s begin with the premise that stopping the Boston offense will be easier than penetrating its defense. One area of focus would be the way the Bruins use their defensemen on offense, which is a major change under Montgomery.
The Bruins are eighth in scoring chances per game from defensemen as a team this season (15.1), which is up from 12th last season (13.9), according to ESPN Stats & Information. They’re seventh in total points from defensemen this season (118) after finishing 25th last season. Lindholm got the green light to create early in the season, which led to his offensive breakout. That was Montgomery.
It’s no secret that the Stanley Cup playoffs are where “little things” aren’t whistled as often as they are in the previous 82 games. Some light interference to slow down those blueliners could impact the Boston offense.
If there’s a weakness for the Bruins’ defense, it might be defending opponents off the rush. According to Stathletes, the Bruins give up more scoring chances off the rush than the NHL average per game. The trick is that their goaltenders are both very good against the rush — in the top 10 in goals saved above expected in those situations.
It’s what the Bruins do after those initial shot attempts that separates them from the pack: They allow the second-fewest shot attempts against following a rebound. Their zone coverage after a rush attempt is suffocating.
In other words, teams can enter the zone but the Bruins are controlling what happens after that initial shot attempt. Even the high-danger chances they surrender are defended well. Obviously step one to breaking through that defense is to increase zone time and get high-danger chances that are unencumbered. Again, easier said than done.
There’s no easy path to beating this team. But there’s also no easy path to the Stanley Cup. They’ll be tested. They’ll be pushed. But if the Bruins follow this regular season with a postseason that ends with a Stanley Cup skate around the rink, they could go down as one of the most dominant teams in the history of not only the NHL but all of pro sports. — Wyshynski
Sports
12 colleges stacked with NFL draft talent: Why scouts are watching Penn State, Clemson this season
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Jordan Reid
The 2025 college football season is fast approaching. Over the next few months, NFL scouts and front office execs will hit the road to watch prospects, talk to coaches and begin building their boards for next year’s draft. But which schools will they visit most? And who are the players to keep a close eye on?
I spoke to scouts and talent evaluators to come up with a cheat sheet of college programs for fans to watch in preparation for the 2026 NFL draft. A lot will happen between now and the end of the season, of course, but think of this as an early primer on which schools NFL franchises will be keeping tabs on this fall, along with. I settled on 12 schools and separated them into three tiers, considering the overall number of draft prospects and how many of those will be first-rounders. I also picked an under-the-radar program to watch.
Let’s start with a loaded Big Ten team looking to keep the national championship in conference.
Jump to a section:
Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3
Under the radar
Tier 1
Top prospect to know: Drew Allar, QB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Trebor Pena, WR
Game circled on the schedule: at Ohio State, Nov. 1
The Nittany Lions are loaded, and all eyes will be on Allar as he enters a crucial senior season. He contemplated entering the NFL draft last season before announcing his decision to return prior to the College Football Playoff. At 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, he has tools scouts covet and showed improvement in his accuracy, with his completion rate improving from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5% last season. He finished with 3,327 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his first season in offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s scheme.
But despite the completion percentage jump, opinions on Allar remain mixed, as many evaluators are taking a wait-and-see approach.
“I think he has what it takes, but he has to be more consistent in big games,” an NFC director of scouting said. “That’s really the only thing keeping me from being all-in on him.”
Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen make up college football’s best backfield duo after both surprisingly returned for their senior season. Singleton is more highly regarded, as he received Day 2 grades from the scouts to whom I talked. The 5-foot-11, 217-pound Allen is a bruiser who can gain tough yards and was labeled an early Day 3 option. Penn State’s overhauled wide receiver room includes transfers Pena (Syracuse), Kyron Hudson (USC) and Devonte Ross (Troy). Each of them have Day 3 grades entering the season.
Penn State also has three offensive linemen on the NFL’s radar. Offensive tackle Drew Shelton is the most highly regarded; he has second-round grades. Right tackle Nolan Rucci was repeatedly mentioned by scouts after an impressive run during the end of last season. Interior blockers Olaivavega Ioane and Nick Dawkins have received a mixture of Day 2 and Day 3 grades.
AJ Harris is the top-ranked corner on my board and could become the first Penn State cornerback to ever be selected in Round 1. Safety Zakee Wheatley is viewed as a midround option by scouts.
Even with the loss of Abdul Carter, Penn State has plenty of early-round defensive line talent. Edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton finished fast, with two sacks, a forced fumble and an interception in the Orange Bowl loss to Notre Dame. He has a Round 2 projection, as scouts want him to expand his pass-rush regimen.
Zane Durant is an undersized but powerful defensive tackle at 6-foot-1, 290 pounds. Some scouts indicated a willingness to bypass his size concerns because of his disruptive abilities and would select him in the top 75. Linebacker Amare Campbell, a North Carolina transfer, has received early Day 3 grades, as has reliable weakside linebacker Tony Rojas.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 3
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 13
Top prospect to know: Peter Woods, DT
Sleeper prospect to watch: Will Heldt, Edge
Game circled on the schedule: vs. LSU, Aug. 30
For the first time since 2009, Clemson didn’t have a player drafted in the first two days of the draft. That will not be the case in 2026, as the Tigers have one of the best rosters in the country. Woods is the top-ranked prospect on my early board. At 6-foot-3, 315 pounds, he’s an anchor in the middle who has the versatility to play every position up front. He’s expected to spend more time inside in new defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s defense after playing primarily off the edge last season.
T.J. Parker is one of the top defensive ends in the country. He finished with 11 sacks last season, and his 16.5 tackles for loss were second most among all FBS defenders. Heldt is a rare transfer addition for Clemson, as he came from Purdue and is expected to play a major role opposite Parker. Nose tackle DeMonte Capehart has also received midround grades from NFL evaluators after an injury-riddled junior season.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik enters his third season as a starter with heightened expectations after a breakout junior year. He finished with 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions, and scouts want to see if he can continue that upward trend. Klubnik is my top-ranked signal-caller and was the No. 1 overall pick in my way-too-early 2026 mock.
Avieon Terrell is a feisty, aggressive, tone-setting cornerback who has gotten a mixture of late first-round and early Day 2 grades. Senior linebacker Wade Woodaz and safety Khalil Barnes are viewed as late-round prospects.
Wide receiver Antonio Williams is a fast-paced, quick receiver who finished last season with 904 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He is getting top-50 grades but could be in contention to be WR1 in this class. Southeast Missouri State transfer Tristan Smith is receiving Day 3 grades.
Clemson has four returning offensive line starters on scouts’ radar. Tackle Blake Miller is considered a Day 2 pick, while Tristan Leigh is viewed more as a Day 3 selection. Interior blockers Ryan Linthicum and Walker Parks are hoping to get into the late-round picture.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 4
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 12
Top prospect to know: Isaiah World, OT
Sleeper prospect to watch: Bryce Boettcher, LB
Game circled on the schedule: at Penn State, Sept. 27
The Ducks were again active in the transfer portal, and World was one of their top additions. The 6-foot-8, 318-pound tackle spent three seasons at Nevada.
“We literally just saw a tackle go from the Mountain West to the Big Ten and be drafted in the first round [Josh Simmons], and I believe this dude has even more upside,” an NFC area scout said about World.
World allowed five pressures and didn’t surrender a sack last season. He still needs to play with more control, as he had eight penalties (five for holding, three for unsportsmanlike conduct). Interior blockers Iapani Laloulu, Emmanuel Pregnon (USC transfer) and Alex Harkey (Texas State transfer) have received Day 3 grades.
Makhi Hughes and Noah Whittington are expected to be the Ducks’ 1-2 backfield punch. Another noteworthy transfer, Hughes rushed for 1,401 yards and 15 touchdowns at Tulane last season. He has gotten primarily midround grades from scouts to who I talked, while Whittington is a late-round hopeful.
Kenyon Sadiq is my top-ranked tight end and will take over the primary role from the departed Terrance Ferguson. Sadiq caught 24 passes for 308 yards and two scores as a backup in 2024, and he has the traits and upside to hear his name called in the first round.
Defensive end Matayo Uiagalelei is Oregon’s highest-rated defensive lineman after finishing with 10.5 sacks last season. He has received Day 2 grades. Defensive tackle A’Mauri Washington has also received middle-to-late-round grades.
Safety Dillon Thieneman, a Purdue transfer, was Oregon’s biggest defensive addition. He had six interceptions as a freshman in 2023 and could be the team’s highest-drafted defensive player. He has a top-75 grade. Boettcher is an underrated player to watch at linebacker and has a chance to move up from his current Day 3 grade.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 4
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 12
Top prospect to know: Anthony Hill Jr., LB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Trevor Goosby, OT
Game circled on the schedule: at Ohio State, Aug. 30
The Longhorns had 12 players drafted in April and are again stocked with talent. All eyes will be on quarterback Arch Manning as he takes the reins of the offense. Even though he has thrown only 95 career passes, there’s plenty of excitement from the small flashes that he has shown. At 6-foot-4, 222 pounds, he has prototypical size and easy arm strength, combined with picture-perfect mechanics. He is draft-eligible, but his sample size is way too small and, based on what his grandfather Archie Manning told Texas Monthly, there’s a good chance he won’t be in the 2026 draft.
Hill will likely to be in the next draft, as he is a versatile linebacker who can make high-impact plays on the second level and off of the edge, finishing last season with 113 tackles and eight sacks. He is already receiving first-round praise, but scouts want to see more consistency with his tackling and vision in run defense.
Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter are a formidable backfield duo that could compete with Penn State’s as the FBS’ best. Wisner is a smooth runner that fits well in the team’s zone-based scheme. He has gotten midround grades. Baxter returns after suffering a significant knee injury that kept him out last season.
Wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. is a versatile target who must show more consistency as a catcher. Tight end Jack Endries, a Cal transfer, steps into a starting role and could expand on his 56 catches for 623 yards and two touchdowns last season. Both have Day 3 grades.
1:08
Roman Harper on Texas’ Manning: ‘It just looks and feels right’
SEC Network’s Harper breaks down why Arch Manning will be a perfect fit for the Longhorns with his poise and experience in Steve Sarkisian’s offense.
Guard DJ Campbell is the only returning offensive line starter. The 6-foot-3, 321-pounder plays with a powerful base and is projected to be a midround pick. Goosby takes over at left tackle after starting two games last season. Even though he’s only a redshirt sophomore, the 6-foot-7, 312-pounder has good tools but needs to gain strength and fill out his frame.
Edge rusher Trey Moore enters his second season with the program after transferring from UTSA following a 14-sack season in 2023. Fellow edge Ethan Burke has mostly gotten Day 3 grades.
Cornerback Malik Muhammad steps into the CB1 spot and will anchor a strong secondary after receiving Day 2 grades. Safety Michael Taaffe is a hard hitter who could be a midround pick, while nickel corner Jaylon Guilbeau needs to take a step as a senior to emerge on draft radars.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 2
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 12
Tier 2
Top prospect to know: Kadyn Proctor, OT
Sleeper prospect to watch: Germie Bernard, WR
Game circled on the schedule: at Georgia, Sept. 27
The Crimson Tide had two first-round picks last season, including an offensive lineman (Tyler Booker). That could happen again in 2026, as Proctor is the highest-ranked prospect on the roster. A starter since stepping foot on campus in 2023, he’s an imposing presence at 6-foot-6, 370 pounds. He is a physical run blocker who generates plenty of movement but needs to show more consistency as a pass protector.
“There are moments where I’m a big believer, and then he’ll have a few quarters that leave me scratching my head — like the fourth quarter against Oklahoma and against Michigan in the bowl game last year,” an AFC assistant general manager said.
Senior guard Jaeden Roberts has received midround grades from scouts I’ve talked to due to his power at the point of attack. Center Parker Brailsford is an agile technician but undersized at 6-foot-2, 290 pounds.
Bernard followed coach Kalen DeBoer from Washington is aiming to take a bigger step in his second year at Alabama (50 catches, 794 receiving yards and two touchdowns last season). Jam Miller is a determined runner who enters his second season as the Tide’s RB1. He’s a likely Day 3 pick.
Defensively, LT Overton is a throwback, reliable edge rusher who fits into any defense at 6-foot-5, 283 pounds. There are scouts who believed he could have been an early Day 2 pick had he entered the 2025 draft. Defensive tackle Tim Keenan III is 6-foot-2, 325 pounds and one of the best run-stopping interior defenders in the country, but scouts want to see more from him as a pass rusher. James Smith could also break out in his first year as a starter.
Linebacker Deontae Lawson returns after suffering an ACL tear against Oklahoma in late November, cutting short a season in which he had 76 tackles and an interception. He’s an active and instinctive second-level defender who was trending toward being a top-50 pick.
Alabama has one of the deepest secondaries in the country, with three players on draft radars. Cornerback Domani Jackson (USC) and safety Keon Sabb (Michigan) are in their second year with the Tide after transferring in, with Jackson regarded as a potential early Day 2 pick, and Sabb being a potential riser if he fully recovers from a broken foot that limited him to seven games last season. Fellow safety Bray Hubbard led Alabama with three interceptions in 2024.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 2
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 11
Top prospect to know: CJ Allen, LB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Raylen Wilson, LB
Game circled on the schedule: vs. Alabama, Sept. 27
Georgia’s defense has had many dynamic linebackers in previous seasons, and Allen in next in line. At 6-foot-1, 235 pounds, he’s an active and urgent defender who finished with 76 tackles and an interception during his sophomore campaign. Wilson and Allen are arguably the best pair of linebackers in the country.
Defensive tackle Christen Miller‘s name repeatedly came up from scouts when discussing potential breakout candidates. Some evaluators believe he could be selected as high as the middle of Round 1 if he can expand on his 27 tackles and 1.5 sacks from 2024.
Cornerback Daylen Everette showed improvement in 2024 but is still regarded as an early Day 3 prospect due to inconsistency in man coverage. Daniel Harris enters his first year as a full-time starter opposite Everette but could be a riser thanks to his 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame.
Right tackle Earnest Greene III — the lone returning offensive line starter — and left tackle Monroe Freeling are projected as Day 3 picks. Guard Micah Morris is an easy mover who also has power and projects as a late-rounder.
Wide receivers Dillon Bell and Zachariah Branch (a transfer from USC) are receiving a mixture of middle-to-late-round grades from scouts. Tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie also have Day 3 grades.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 2
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 11
Top prospect to know: Jeremiyah Love, RB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Jaden Greathouse, WR
Game circled on the schedule: vs. Miami, Aug. 31
Fresh off a run to the national title game, the Irish have plenty of NFL talent. Love is the consensus RB1 among scouts and a chance to be the only first-round rusher in the 2026 draft. He has a special blend of vision, suddenness and versatility out of the backfield, which helped him to 1,125 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns last season.
“He’s a mixture of [James] Cook and [Jahmyr] Gibbs,” an AFC assistant GM said. “I think he’s a game-changer and some team will take him in the top 20 [picks] because he makes a lot of things right in your offense.”
Backfield mate Jadarian Price brings power and toughness, as he added 746 rushing yards and seven TDs in 2024. He’s viewed as a player who could rise from a late-round projection. Wide receivers Malachi Fields (Virginia transfer) and Greathouse are projected midround picks, which they could improve as Notre Dame’s top two pass-catching options.
Tackle Aamil Wagner and guard Billy Schrauth return for an offensive line that’s again expected to be among the best in the country. Wagner has primarily received midround grades.
Edge rusher Jordan Botelho is a high-energy and effective rusher. Cornerback Christian Gray and linebacker Drayk Bowen are other defensive players seen as Day 3 prospects.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 1
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 11
Top prospect to know: Caleb Downs, S
Sleeper prospect to watch: Kenyatta Jackson Jr., Edge
Game circled on the schedule: vs. Penn State, Nov. 1
The Buckeyes had 14 players drafted in 2025 after winning the national title, but the best defensive player on that team remains in Columbus. Downs is the top defensive back prospect in the country. At 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, he’s a versatile player who can play multiple secondary spots. His 28.6% completion percentage allowed in coverage was fifth best among defensive backs in the FBS last season. He also added 81 tackles and two interceptions.
“There’s not a lot that he can’t do honestly,” said a highly ranked AFC scouting executive. “I don’t love him as much as I did with [Kyle] Hamilton [in 2022], but I think he could be picked in a similar range when it’s all said and done.”
Linebacker Sonny Styles has gotten high praise as a potential top-50 pick. He’s a 6-foot-4, 237-pound hybrid defender who can be deployed in multiple ways. Fellow LB Arvell Reese is receiving Day 3 grades.
Jackson enters his first year as a starter and there’s plenty of excitement surrounding the 6-foot-6, 265-pounder. North Carolina transfer Beau Atkinson arrives in Columbus after a 7.5-sack season. Both received Day 3 grades from scouts.
Cornerback Davison Igbinosun returns after an inconsistent 2024 that saw him flagged 16 times while in coverage. At 6-foot-2, 193 pounds, he’s a physical press-man corner and must learn to contain his overreliance on his hands, which has resulted in him getting late Day 2 and early Day 3 grades. Cornerback Jermaine Mathews Jr. could rise in his first season as a starter.
It’s not an Ohio State class without a top pass catcher, and Carnell Tate is a sure-handed, all-around receiver projected to be a Day 2 pick. Tight end Max Klare transferred from Purdue after finishing with 51 receptions for 685 yards and four touchdowns in 2024.
Rice transfer Ethan Onianwa takes over at left tackle, where he’s receiving early Day 3 buzz. At 6-foot-6, 333 pounds, there will likely be an adjustment period for him, but his stock could rise as the season progresses.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 1
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 10
Tier 3
Top prospect to know: Garrett Nussmeier, QB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Barion Brown, WR
Game circled on the schedule: at Clemson, Aug. 30
The Tigers are led by Nussmeier, who returns for a highly anticipated senior season. He finished with 4,052 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his first year as a starter; he’s my No. 3 QB for next year’s draft. Nussmeier plays with fearless anticipation and steady confidence despite his below-average size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds). He has gotten a mixture of late Round 1 and early Day 2 grades from scouts to whom I’ve talked.
“He reminds me a little of [Brock] Purdy, but with even more confidence,” said an AFC scout from a QB-needy team. “I think [the Tigers] just weren’t as good as they have been at receiver, and he pressed into some bad decisions way too much last year.”
LSU remodeled its receiver room, with in-conference transfers Brown (Kentucky) and Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) projected to be Day 3 picks. Aaron Anderson and Chris Hilton Jr. return as starters and provide more explosive-play capabilities. Tight end Bauer Sharp, another Oklahoma transfer, is also worth watching.
The Tigers added multiple transfers on the defensive line with edges Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida). Scouts that I talked to give Payton a mixture of Day 2 and Day 3 grades after a disappointing 2024 season. Pyburn is receiving early third-day considerations.
Linebacker Whit Weeks is impossible to ignore on tape; he had 120 tackles and two forced fumbles last season. The 6-foot-2, 225-pounder is physical and has infectious energy, part of why he’s getting midround grades.
Harold Perkins Jr. returns after suffering a torn ACL early last season. But where does the 6-foot-1, 222-pounder play? That’s the big question, as he has split time between off-ball linebacker and the edge. He’s considered a Day 2 guy by scouts even with the injury.
Virginia Tech transfer corner Mansoor Delane has received strong Day 2 grades, while Ashton Stamps is in the Day 3 picture after showing flashes in 2024. Safety A.J. Haulcy, a Houston transfer, could emerge after finishing with five interceptions in 2024.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 1
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 11
Top prospect to know: Jordyn Tyson, WR
Sleeper prospect to watch: Max Iheanachor, OT
Game circled on the schedule: at Utah, Oct. 11
The Sun Devils again have a well-constructed roster full of draft prospects after their surprising Big 12 title in 2024. Tyson is their highest-rated prospect, as the 6-foot-2, 200 pound receiver is viewed as a potential first-round pick. He broke out as a redshirt sophomore, finishing with 75 catches for 1,101 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Tyson is a diverse route runner that plays with physicality throughout his patterns.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt improved weekly, passing for 2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns to only six interceptions. With only 13 career starts entering the season, Leavitt’s sample size is still small, but multiple scouts believe he could be the candidate who catapults up draft boards.
Running back Kanye Udoh transferred from Army, where he finished with 1,117 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns last season. At 6-foot-1, 220 pounds, Udoh is a bigger rusher who will attempt to fill the void left by Cam Skattebo.
Iheanachor is a toolsy blocker who received high grades from multiple scouts because of his upside. Some NFL personnel believe he could be picked as early as Round 2. Guards Kyle Scott and Ben Coleman and tackle Josh Atkins are projected to be drafted on Day 3.
Three starting defensive linemen are on NFL radars, with defensive tackle C.J. Fite and edge rushers Clayton Smith and Prince Dorbah receiving late-round grades. Linebackers Keyshaun Elliott and Jordan Crook also have Day 3 grades.
Cornerback Keith Abney II has caught the eye of evaluators because of his consistency in man coverage and is seen as a potential Day 2 pick. Safeties Xavion Alford and Myles Rowser are viewed as late Day 3 selections.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 1
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 10
Top prospect to know: David Bailey, Edge/LB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Brice Pollock, CB
Game circled on the schedule: at Arizona State, Oct. 18
Bailey is the top-rated prospect on a replenished Tech roster. A late addition from Stanford, he finished last season with seven sacks and three forced fumbles. His 2.64-second average time to first pressure ranked 23rd in the FBS; he’s projected to be a Day 2 pick. Fellow edge Romello Height and interior defenders Lee Hunter and Skyler Gill-Howard have gotten early Day 3 grades from scouts.
Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who began his career as a quarterback at Virginia in 2021, is considered a late-rounder with the potential to boost his stock as the centerpiece of the Red Raiders’ defense.
Safety Cole Wisniewski returns after missing the entire 2024 season due to a foot injury. He was one of the top players in the FCS during his time at North Dakota State. The 6-foot-3, 220-pounder has Day 3 grades. Pollock, a Mississippi State transfer, kept popping up when talking to NFL evaluators. He is firmly on the NFL’s radar with Day 3 grades but has the potential to climb higher. A.J. McCarty and Dontae Balfour are two more defensive backs regarded as late-round hopefuls.
Quarterback Behren Morton enters his third season as a starter after throwing for 3,335 yards, 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2024. Morton has primarily received early Day 3 consideration. USC transfer running back Quinten Joyner is also a prospect who could make his presence felt.
Wide receivers Reggie Virgil, Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin are seen as potential third-day selections. Tight ends Johncarlos Miller II and Terrance Carter Jr. (Louisiana transfer) have gotten similar grades.
Tackles Hunter Zambrano and Howard Sampson and guards Will Jados and Davion Carter are regarded as Day 3 selections.
Predicted first-rounders in 2026: 1
Predicted total draft picks in 2026: 9
Under-the-radar school
Top prospect to know: Fernando Mendoza, QB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Hosea Wheeler, DT
Game circled on the schedule: at Oregon, Oct. 11
The Hoosiers were one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season in making the College Football Playoff, and their roster still has plenty of talent. Mendoza follows Kurtis Rourke as a transfer passer who hopes to boost his draft stock in Curt Cignetti’s offense. Mendoza finished the season at Cal with 3,004 passing yards and 16 touchdowns to six interceptions. He has gotten high praise from scouts that I have talked to — some believe he could go in Round 1.
“I was pleasantly surprised with how well he played last year despite the lack of surroundings around him,” an NFC area scout said. “He has the size and accuracy, but it’s his constant toughness in the pocket that impressed me the most.”
2:13
Fernando Mendoza’s top plays from this past season
Check out some highlights from former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza as he announces his commitment to Indiana.
Indiana hasn’t had a wideout drafted since Cody Latimer in 2014 but have three receivers on NFL radars. Elijah Sarratt has gotten late Day 2 grades while E.J. Williams Jr. and Omar Cooper Jr. are viewed more in the Day 3 range. Notre Dame transfer center Pat Coogan received Day 3 grades, as did guard Bray Lynch. Running back Roman Hemby is also another player who could rise.
While Indiana had only one defensive player drafted in 2025 (DT CJ West), it could have several called in 2026. D’Angelo Ponds is an undersized corner at 5-foot-9, 170 pounds, but his ball skills and physical nature have led to Day 2 grades as a nickel. Safeties Amare Ferrell and Louis Moore are Day 3 prospects entering the season.
Edge rusher Mikail Kamara received midround grades and is Indiana’s highest-rated defensive line prospect. Wheeler, a Western Kentucky transfer, could experience a breakout season in his first season in the Big Ten while Texas State transfer nose tackle Dominique Ratcliff has a similar opportunity. Linebacker Aiden Fisher was viewed as a Day 3 possibility.
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Eli Lederman
Texas Tech‘s offseason talent-gathering spree continued on the high school recruiting trail Thursday with a commitment from five-star outside linebacker LaDamion Guyton, ESPN’s No. 5 overall prospect in the 2027 class.
Guyton, a 6-foot-3, 220-pound recruit from Savannah, Georgia, is the No. 2 defender in the ESPN Junior 300. He picked the Red Raiders over Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee.
“They do a very good job of making you feel like you’re one of their players already when you’re in the building,” Guyton said of Texas Tech to ESPN. “It’s a feeling that draws you in. They have things going in the right direction, and it’s exciting knowing I’m going to be part of that someday.”
Guyton cannot formally sign with a college program for another 16 months, but his commitment marks the latest domino in an abundant run for coach Joey McGuire and Red Raiders general manager James Blanchard.
The program invested heavily in the winter and spring transfer portal windows, ultimately securing 21 additions within ESPN’s top-ranked transfer class ahead of the 2025 season. The lengthy list of newcomers this fall is headlined by defensive linemen David Bailey (Stanford), Romello Height (Georgia Tech) and Lee Hunter (UCF) and FCS All-America safety Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State). Former five-star signee Micah Hudson rejoined the program this spring following a winter transfer to Texas A&M.
The Red Raiders have also been active on the high school recruiting trail this summer, adding nine commitments in the 2026 class since June 1. The most significant was the pledge of five-star offensive tackle Felix Ojo (No. 20 overall) on the back of a seismic, seven-figure revenue share contract.
In Guyton, the Red Raiders now hold one of the most coveted commitments in the 2027 recruiting cycle.
Guyton has been credited with 134 total tackles and 16.5 sacks over two varsity seasons at Savannah Christian Preparatory School. He transferred to nearby Benedictine Military School in January, and Guyton told ESPN that he has not ruled out the possibility of reclassifying into the 2026 class and joining Texas Tech next year.
While the Red Raiders hold only two ESPN 300 pledges in the 2026 cycle, sources told ESPN that Texas Tech is expected to invest heavily in the 2027 class, with four-star offensive tackle Cooper Hackett (No. 19 in the ESPN Junior 300) and No. 2 quarterback Kavian Bryant (No. 48 overall) among the priority targets.
Will Ohio State claim the Big Ten title in 2025, or will Penn State finally break through in 2025?
The college football season is less than a month away, and it looks like these two perennial Big Ten powers will have the best shot to not just win the conference, but the College Football Playoff, too. But it won’t be without stiff competition from Oregon, which won the league last season.
In addition to the Big Ten’s playoff race, eyes will be on UCLA and Nico Iamaleava following his exit from Tennessee.
We get you caught up on the Big Ten by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, power rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFP outlook
Should be in: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon. Defending national champion Ohio State always will be penciled into the CFP field, even after losing 14 NFL draft picks, tied for the most in team history. The Buckeyes have wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, considered the nation’s best overall player, as well as safety Caleb Downs, arguably the No. 1 defender. But it’s Penn State, not Ohio State, that enters the fall as possibly the Big Ten’s strongest national contender. The Nittany Lions replace less than the other three teams that reached last year’s CFP semifinals, as they return quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and several standout defenders. Oregon is amazingly being overlooked a bit after winning the Big Ten in its debut season and becoming the only FBS team to finish the regular season at 13-0. The Ducks lost 10 NFL draft picks but will return a talented defensive front seven and add several top transfers and recruits.
In the running: Illinois, Michigan, Indiana. Illinois returns the core players from its first 10-win team since 2001, and it could become this year’s version of Indiana, especially with more explosiveness on offense and stout line play. If the Illini can navigate September road tests against Duke and, yes, Indiana, look out for Bret Bielema’s squad. Michigan hopes to rejoin the CFP mix after its strong finish to last season, leaning on a talented defensive front and possibly incoming freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. Indiana largely will be counted out, but not here, as the team retained several All-Big Ten players from the historic CFP team, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen from the portal. Iowa occasionally found itself in the four-team CFP mix and could take a leap if transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski elevates the offense.
Long shots: Nebraska, USC, Minnesota, Washington. Nebraska has had a tough time merely making bowl appearances in the Big Ten, but could be primed for a jump in wins, as quarterback Dylan Raiola returns to lead the squad. The Huskers are also helped by a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Oregon, and has no true road game until Oct. 11. USC is still seeking its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley and could enter the mix if it plays better away from home, where it dropped four games by seven points or fewer. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is also seeking better results in one-score games and told ESPN that the CFP “isn’t a pipe dream.” Washington is only two years removed from a national title game appearance and brings back a team with upside, particularly dynamic young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. — Adam Rittenberg and Jake Trotter
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s Big Ten conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two huge nonconference games — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. That second part is key, as neither Penn State (two) nor Ohio State (three) have many projected close games on the docket.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and Michigan at Oklahoma (Sept. 6). The biggest games of Weeks 1 and 2 are Big Ten vs. SEC affairs, though they take on different flavors. Texas-Ohio State is a rematch of last year’s delightful CFP semifinal, in which Jack Sawyer’s late scoop-and-score ended a Longhorns comeback attempt. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes will almost certainly start out in the AP top 5. Meanwhile, Michigan and Oklahoma are looking for ways back into the top 10, and both will bring remodeled offenses to the table.
Illinois at Indiana (Sept. 20). If things play out as forecasted and we have two different races going on in the Big Ten — the big names vying for the conference title and the pool of 14 other teams fighting among each other for another playoff spot — then this is the biggest Illinois-Indiana game of all time. The loser will have to be just about perfect to get to 10-2 and a potential bid.
Oregon at Penn State (Sept. 27). The Week 5 slate is overloaded with big games, but this will almost certainly be the biggest. The Ducks and Nittany Lions will almost certainly be a combined 7-0 at this point, as neither team will have played a top-50 team.
USC at Illinois (Sept. 27) and Indiana at Iowa (Sept. 27). Like I said, there’s just way too much going on in Week 5. Goodness.
Michigan at USC (Oct. 11). By this point, Michigan will have already played at Oklahoma and Nebraska and could be 5-0 and in the top 10, or 3-2 and flailing. USC will have just visited Illinois and could be 5-0 or flailing as well. This game will be huge, for any of about 17 different reasons.
Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1). In terms of combined SP+ ratings, this is the single biggest game of the 2025 regular season.
Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8). Whether PSU is coming off of a win or a loss in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will desperately need to move on and avoid a hangover.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29). Proof that even in a 12-team CFP era, a rivalry loss can send you into a spectacular, existential tailspin. (And proof that you might be able to steer out of it a little better now.)
Three freshmen to watch
Malik Washington, QB, Maryland
Washington already arrived on campus facing immense expectations after the four-star Maryland native opted to stay home and attend the school he grew up idolizing. His spring game showing — he went 12-of-18 for 170 yards and two touchdowns — did little to dispel any optimism he could become the face of a program resurrection in College Park. At 6-foot-5, 231 pounds, Washington is a true dual-threat with arm talent and mobility. His accuracy and ability to change arm angles should mesh well in an RPO scheme. Carving out a path to contention in the Big Ten won’t be easy, and he’ll need to beat out UCLA transfer Justyn Martin for the starting gig, but Washington has game-changing tools.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
No freshman in college football faces more scrutiny than Underwood, who arrived in Ann Arbor as the highest-ranked player in the class and signed a multi-million dollar NIL deal after a lengthy pursuit by his hometown Wolverines. Underwood’s spring was more solid than exceptional, and he went 12-of-26 for 187 yards in the spring game, which included an 88-yard touchdown, but also a pair of sacks and several overthrows. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore hasn’t named a starter and has been consistent that Underwood is battling with Jadyn Davis, Jake Garcia, and Mikey Keene for the role, but Michigan’s offense has its highest ceiling with Underwood at the helm. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Underwood combines raw speed, clean footwork in the pocket and natural arm strength. The ball jumps out of his hand and he’s adept at keeping plays alive on the run to move the chains. It might require some patience — which isn’t easy in Ann Arbor — but Underwood has the ceiling of a dominant, Heisman Trophy-contending signal caller.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon
Moore arrived in Eugene as the highest-graded high school receiver ESPN has evaluated since 2020, then dazzled Oregon teammates and coaches alike during the Ducks’ spring practices. Moore won the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game MVP and totaled more than 4,000 receiving yards at famed Duncanville High School in Texas. He’s also a decorated track star, and his blazing speed and savvy route-running ability should find a home in Oregon’s offense on Day 1. Moore’s offseason work has only helped solidify the high expectations. He could quickly become a reliable option for new starting QB Dante Moore, and his role in the offense only becomes more important with Evan Stewart set to miss at least a significant portion of the season with a knee injury. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Cal | Top 100 rank: 4
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: Mendoza was an incredible find for Cal, an under-the-radar three-star out of Miami who was committed to Yale until the Bears extended a late offer. He developed into one of the best young QBs in the country after taking over as Cal’s starter for their final eight games in 2023. As a sophomore, he was the ACC’s third-leading passer with 3,004 passing yards and raised his completion percentage to 69% (second in the ACC) while scoring 18 total touchdowns with just six interceptions over 11 games. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 41 sacks last season but overcame inconsistent protection to have a really productive year with strong performances against Miami and Auburn and a 98-yard game-winning drive to beat rival Stanford. Mendoza is viewed as one of the most promising QBs in the country by several personnel departments. — Olson
Scout’s take: Mendoza is one of the most undervalued players at the position in college football. He’s 6-5, a great athlete and is tough as nails. He was sacked a lot and kept getting back up. Mendoza can make all of the throws and is a sneaky, crafty athlete. — Luginbill
What he brings to Indiana: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti values production over potential when it comes to recruiting the transfer portal. He’s getting plenty of both with Mendoza as his successor to Kurtis Rourke. Mendoza is looking to take his game to another level in the Big Ten and help make the Hoosiers a contender again in Year 2 under Cignetti. — Olson
Transferring from: Tennessee | Top 100 rank: 5
HT: 6-6 | WT: 220 | Class: Redshirt freshman
Background: Well, this was a stunner. While there were rumors of discontent in late December at the winter portal deadline, it was still shocking that Iamaleava left a College Football Playoff team and hit the open market during the spring in search of a better deal than the one he had with the Vols. Tennessee invested a ton of money in Iamaleava and even successfully fought off an attempted NCAA investigation into the seven-figure agreement he struck with the Vols as a five-star high school recruit. He had an awful lot of hype to live up to as a redshirt freshman starter in 2024 and put together a solid year, throwing for 2,616 yards, completing 64% of his passes with 22 total touchdowns and nine turnovers while leading the Vols to 10 wins. Iamaleava closed out the season with a rough CFP performance, completing 14 of 31 passes for 104 yards in a 42-17 first-round loss to eventual national champ Ohio State, and still has plenty of room to grow. But it is exceptionally rare that a QB of his caliber becomes available in the spring. Iamaleava is looking to keep progressing and play up to his first-round potential. — Olson
Scout’s take: There is no debating that Iamaleava is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in college football. He was highly coveted out of high school because of his stature, arm strength and athletic ability. During his one season as a starter, he showed flashes of brilliance but also mediocrity. He threw 19 touchdowns, but four of the nine touchdowns in SEC play came against Vanderbilt and seven came against Chattanooga and UTEP. Consistency is where he has to improve. He has the arm strength and overall talent to be a terrific vertical deep ball passer, but he has been wildly inconsistent in terms of accuracy in that regard. There are still tools here, but he will likely be playing on a team that is less talented than the one he just left. Meaning: He’s going to have to be better than he has ever been. — Luginbill
What he brings to UCLA: This ordeal might have played out perfectly for the Bruins. They’re getting a potential top-10 quarterback on a reduced contract who will generate a lot of attention for this program entering coach DeShaun Foster’s second year. Iamaleava’s arrival will cost them App State transfer QB Joey Aguilar, who reentered the portal after going through spring practice with the Bruins and landed at Tennessee. The challenge going forward for Iamaleava is learning OC Tino Sunseri’s system and winning over his new teammates this summer, but he’ll certainly be motivated after his split with the Vols. — Olson
Transferring from: Nevada | Top 100 rank: 7
HT: 6-8 | WT: 309 | Class: Redshirt junior
Background: The massive pass protector was a three-year starter for the Wolf Pack primarily at left tackle and brings invaluable experience with more than 2,300 career snaps. He did not surrender a sack during his junior season and picked up honorable mention All-Mountain West recognition. World is viewed as a potential first-round draft pick by NFL scouts entering his final season of eligibility and is making the move up to the Power 4 to prove he merits that praise. — Olson
Scout’s take: World is a huge presence with very good pass pro skills at left tackle. He has added 42 pounds since high school and retained his initial quickness and flexibility. World does a terrific job riding defenders past the pocket with his length and mobility. He plays balanced with good feet and shows his basketball background mirroring defenders in his set. He’s not as effective versus the run. World’s pad level can get high, but he’s still very productive at washing defenders down to open run lanes. — Tucker
What he brings to Oregon: Offensive tackle was one of the critical portal needs for the Ducks. Ajani Cornelius graduating and Josh Conerly Jr. potentially going pro made adding starter-caliber tackles a priority for Oregon, and it was able to hold off Texas A&M and Nebraska in this battle. A one-year addition makes sense to help give the Ducks’ young big men more time to develop. — Olson
Numbers to know
4: The number of seasons it has been since defending national champion Ohio State won the Big Ten title, the Buckeyes’ longest drought since a six-year stretch from 1987 to 1992.
8: The number of Big Ten quarterbacks who were in the top 25 of the ESPN300 recruit rankings at some point in their high school careers, the most of any conference. Those QBs are Michigan’s Bryce Underwood (No. 1 in 2025), Oregon’s Dante Moore (No. 2 in 2023), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (No. 9 in 2024), Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair (No. 10 in 2025), Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola (No. 11 in 2024), USC’s Sam Huard (No. 16 in 2021), UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava (No. 23 in 2023) and Michigan’s Jake Garcia (No. 24 in 2021).
+200: Ohio State’s odds of winning the Big Ten championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for the Big Ten favorite in at least 15 years. Penn State is the second choice at +225. — ESPN Research
Power rankings
0:52
Should Penn State be the No. 1-ranked team in the country?
Heather Dinich joins “Get Up” to share why she believes Penn State should be the top-ranked team going into the new college football season.
If not this year, then when for the Nittany Lions? As other Big Ten powers sift through QB questions, Penn State features three-year starter Drew Allar, who has the makeup to be a first-round pick next spring. Throw in a dominant running game spearheaded by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a talented defense now led by veteran coordinator Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions have the pieces to win the Big Ten — and even the national title.
The defending national champions lost a record-tying 14 players to the NFL and must fill significant holes at quarterback and along both the offensive and defensive lines. But Ohio State also has arguably the nation’s best two players in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, other standouts such as wide receiver Carnell Tate and linebacker Sonny Styles, and notable transfers such as tight end Max Klare (Purdue). Never count out the Buckeyes.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dillion Gabriel, one of the most prolific QBs in recent college football history, is gone, leaving tantalizing former five-star recruit Dante Moore in charge of the Ducks’ offense. A season-ending knee injury to star wide receiver Evan Stewart stings. But Oregon still has enough on either side of the ball to defend its Big Ten title.
After winning 10 games for the first time since the Big Ten championship season of 2001, Illinois has its sights on the team’s first CFP appearance. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and outside linebacker Gabe Jacas are part of an impressive returning group that must navigate tricky September trips to Duke and Indiana before a home showdown with Ohio State on Oct. 11.
All eyes will be on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has already been turning heads in Ann Arbor with his work ethic and dual-threat abilities. The Wolverines have the running game and figure to be stout defensively once again. If Underwood can supercharge the passing attack, the Wolverines could be back in contention for a playoff spot.
How will Coach Cig (Curt Cignetti) follow a historic debut that featured a team-record 11 wins and a once unthinkable CFP appearance? Indiana retained All-Big Ten players on both sides of the ball, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen in the portal. The key for IU will be better line-of-scrimmage play in its biggest games, as the schedule doesn’t look nearly as favorable.
7. The Hawkeyes are banking that transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who won an FCS national title, can jumpstart a perennially moribund Iowa offense. Iowa’s offensive line, led by standout center Logan Jones and tackle Gennings Dunker, should be elite. If the defensive-minded Hawkeyes can finally find a way to put up points, they could be dangerous.
After reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016, Nebraska is targeting much bigger goals under third-year coach Matt Rhule. The Huskers have a favorable schedule with no true road games until Oct. 11 and no Ohio State or Oregon. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has had a full offseason to develop under playcaller Dana Holgorsen.
9. USC Trojans
The Trojans lost five games by one score last season, tied for the most in the FBS. Playing from ahead will be critical for the Trojans, who trailed in 11 of their 13 games in 2024. The defense under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn took a step forward last season, but the Trojans need more improvement — they still allowed 5.83 yards per play (15th in the Big Ten).
Could Minnesota be a wild-card CFP contender? “This isn’t a pipe dream,” coach P.J. Fleck told ESPN, pointing to a record in one-score games that, if improved, could elevate the team’s outlook. Minnesota has a solid defense, a potential two-way star in Koi Perich and will lean on first-year starting quarterback Drake Lindsey for a spark.
The Huskies are excited about the potential of sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr., who passed for 374 yards and totaled five touchdowns in Washington’s bowl loss to Louisville. If Williams builds off that performance, the Huskies could surprise offensively, with 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman flanking him in the backfield.
12. After a tough first year and a relatively quiet offseason, Michigan State could creep up on teams during coach Jonathan Smith’s second year. The Spartans made some key portal additions at offensive line and wide receiver to help second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Areas to improve include takeaways and better play on the road, where MSU was 1-4 in 2024.
13. Athan Kaliakmanis is back after becoming the first Rutgers QB since 2015 to pass for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Defensively, the pass rush could be a strength with the arrivals of transfers Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio), who were both all-conference performers. Rutgers ranked just 84th nationally with only 22 total sacks last season.
14. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have gone all-in on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Tennessee transfer whose return home could signal a shift in how UCLA will operate under coach DeShaun Foster. If Iamaleava meets expectations and a defense with many new players and coaches shines, UCLA could rise in these rankings after a season where it had wins against Iowa and Nebraska.
15. Injuries robbed any chance Wisconsin had of fielding a viable offense in 2024, as the Badgers ranked 102nd nationally in passing (197 yards per game) on the way to losing their final five games. The onus is now on transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) and new coordinator Jeff Grimes to turn that around.
16. After bottoming out on offense in 2024, Northwestern had its most successful winter transfer portal haul, which included quarterback Preston Stone (SMU), wide receiver Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State) and several linemen. The Wildcats face a huge opener at Tulane and several tricky Big Ten road contests, but bowl eligibility should be within sight.
Coach Mike Locksley recently admitted he lost the locker room in 2024 over which players to pay, as the Terrapins stumbled to a 1-8 Big Ten record. Maryland doesn’t have much coming back offensively, either, though keeping four-star QB Malik Washington in state has given the Terrapins an intriguing player to rebuild around. The true freshman is battling UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and redshirt freshman Khristian Martin for the starting QB job.
18. Barry Odom is back in the Power 4 following an impressive run at UNLV. He takes over a Purdue team with almost an entirely new roster and a schedule that includes Notre Dame and Ohio State. Moderate improvement is the goal for Odom, whose track record on defense and with personnel suggests better days are ahead. — Rittenberg, Trotter
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