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Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to deliver a major speech on Friday, the anniversary of Russias invasion of Ukraine, outlining a so-called peace plan for the war.

Here are three questions to which analysts are looking for answers. 1. Will China provide military aid to Russia? If yes, what sort?

Experts believe that China is unlikely to supply weapons to Russia. United States and European officials have recently cited intelligence that Beijing was mulling over this possibility, although it has so far refrained from sending lethal aid such as artillery shells.

In response to such concerns, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on Wednesday that this was groundless speculation.

Associate research fellow James Char at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) believes that the claim of arms supply to Russia remains speculation.

But Beijing has been exploiting Moscows predicament by buying more Russian commodities at a discount since the start of the conflict, while avoiding transactions that might risk secondary sanctions, he said.

I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership would not want to take that risk, especially since the Chinese economy is still in the midst of recovering from its previous zero-Covid policy, added Dr Char.

Other experts have said that China supplying weapons to Russia could be perceived as an escalation of the war, and worsen relations with the US and other Western nations, running contrary to Beijings recent efforts to mend ties.

Professor Benjamin Ho of RSIS China programme said Chinas goal is simple: So long as the war does not spill into China, it is in Beijings interests to have all the major players distracted in Ukraine.

Having the West being bogged down with a conflict with Russia clearly works to Beijings advantage. Whether that requires China to send lethal weapons or not, I leave it to others imagination. 2. What specific proposals will Mr Xi provide to end the war?

Dr Chen Gang, a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, believes that Mr Xis peace initiative would include asking both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resume peace talks.

He could ask other countries to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and for Ukraine to promise not to join the US-led Nato military alliance. He is likely to say that Russias security concerns should be respected.

These are part of Chinas basic position on the war, and Dr Chen does not expect a significant policy shift to be announced.

I dont think they will ask Russia to withdraw to pre-February 2022 positions or to give up Crimea.

China has refused to condemn Russias action or call it an invasion, instead using Moscows line that Nato had provoked the conflict. But Beijing has also said it is against war and the use of nuclear weapons. More On This Topic China says Russia ties solid as rock amid Ukraine peace push Beijing hopes peace between Russia and Ukraine can be Made in China Dr Char said the speech will largely comprise broad statements calling for a negotiated settlement that fall short of specifics on how to end the war.

By sticking to this third camp between the pro-Nato and pro-Russia positions, Beijing can continue to enjoy the most advantageous position among the major powers, he added.

This means it neither needs to exhaust its military and human resources like Moscow, nor hand over billions of dollars in aid, as Washington has been doing.

Prof Ho added: I doubt China has any clear plan to resolve the Ukraine war, at least not one which will be acceptable to Ukraine and other Western countries. 3. How will the plan fit into Mr Xis grand security vision for the world?

Political scientist Chong Ja Ian at the National University of Singapore expects Mr Xis speech to follow along the lines of the Global Security Initiative concept paper that China released on Tuesday, with broad statements about non-nuclear use and respect for sovereignty.

The initiative launched by Mr Xi in 2022 is his flagship security proposal, which aims to uphold indivisible security, a concept also endorsed by Russia.

The concept paper also stated, among other things, that the use of unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction do not solve problems but only create more difficulties and complications likely a reference to US and other Western nations that have imposed economic sanctions on Russia over the war.

Dr Char said the concept of indivisible security essentially calls for the right to safeguard ones legitimate security interests, and that no countrys security should be built at the expense of others security.

China also believes it has little to gain from switching to a pro-West position, and it does need Russia as a diplomatic partner.

Beijing realises that anything but a contrarian position (to the West) would deprive it of much-needed diplomatic space to manoeuvre, and so will likely continue to refrain from criticising Russia publicly, at least.

China is aware that its disagreements with the US and the other Western powers would not simply disappear even if it were to side with Kyiv, he added. More On This Topic US concerned by China-Russia ties as Putin signals Xi visit China says it will offer concrete ideas to end Ukraine war

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Paul Gallagher, older brother of Oasis stars Liam and Noel, appears in court charged with rape

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Paul Gallagher, older brother of Oasis stars Liam and Noel, appears in court charged with rape

Paul Gallagher, the older brother of Oasis stars Noel and Liam, has appeared in court charged with rape, sexual assault and other offences.

Gallagher, of East Finchley, north London, is accused of rape, coercive and controlling behaviour, three counts of sexual assault, three counts of intentional strangulation, two counts of making a threat to kill, and assault occasioning actual bodily harm.

The alleged offences are claimed to have taken place between 2022 and 2024, the charge sheet showed.

During a five-minute hearing at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday, Gallagher spoke to confirm his name, age and address, but entered no pleas.

He has been bailed for a further appearance at Harrow Crown Court on 24 September.

Gallagher, who is a year older than Noel and seven years older than Liam, has never been involved in Oasis.

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World

Australia shooting suspect identified as manhunt continues into a second day

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Australia shooting suspect identified as manhunt continues into a second day

A suspect who shot and killed two police officers and seriously injured a third in Australia’s rural south-east has been identified, police said. 

A manhunt is underway for Dezi Freeman, 56, who is heavily armed and experienced in wilderness survival skills, Victoria state’s chief commissioner of police Mike Bush told reporters.

The local residents have been urged to stay indoors.

The whereabouts of Freeman’s wife and two children were initially unknown, but Mr Bush said they had visited a police station and spoken to officers late on Tuesday night.

The shooting happened earlier on Tuesday, when 10 armed police officers tried to execute a search warrant at Freeman’s property in Porepunkah, a town of just over 1,000 people located 200 miles north-east of Melbourne.

The suspect killed two officers and injured a third. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The suspect killed two officers and injured a third. Pic: Reuters

Porepunkah Primary School in Porepunkah, Victoria, was locked down for several hours. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Porepunkah Primary School in Porepunkah, Victoria, was locked down for several hours. Pic: Reuters

The officers “were met by the offender and they were murdered in cold blood,” the police chief said.

Freeman killed a 59-year-old detective and a 35-year-old senior constable, Mr Bush said. Another detective was shot, but his wounds are not life-threatening.

The armed man fled alone on foot into the nearby forest, where an intensive search for him continued through the night and into Wednesday.

Porepunkah is located 200 miles north-east of Melbourne, Australia.
Image:
Porepunkah is located 200 miles north-east of Melbourne, Australia.

Mr Bush would not elaborate on the search warrant for Freeman’s property and said it was “too soon to say” if his attack on the officers was ideologically motivated.

But he told reporters that some of the officers who tried to execute the search warrant included members of a unit that investigates sexual offences and child abuse.

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Australian media widely reported that Freeman expressed so-called sovereign citizen beliefs, referencing a 2021 video from Wangaratta Magistrates’ Court in which he is seen representing himself and unsuccessfully trying to arrest a magistrate and police officers.

Members of self-proclaimed sovereign citizen movements use debunked legal theories to reject government authority.

A manhunt in Australia continues into its second day. Pic: Simon Dallinger/AAP Image/AP
Image:
A manhunt in Australia continues into its second day. Pic: Simon Dallinger/AAP Image/AP

In a 2024 finding from Victoria’s Supreme Court, where Freeman attempted to challenge a lengthy suspension of his driver’s licence, a judge noted that the man had “a history of unpleasant encounters with police officers”.

In his submissions to the court, Freeman referred to the officers as “Nazis” and “terrorist thugs”.

The chief commissioner would not say how much was known of Freeman’s beliefs before the visit to his property.

Porepunkah, famous for its vineyards and beautiful views, is a gateway to Victoria’s alpine tourist region.

On Tuesday, public buildings and the nearby airfield were shut, and the local school, with just over 100 students, was locked down for several hours before children and staff were permitted to leave.

“Be vigilant, keep yourselves safe,” Mr Bush urged residents on Wednesday. “Please don’t go outside if you don’t need to.”

Mr Bush said the suspect’s knowledge of outdoor survival skills posed a “challenge” to authorities.

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UK

Labour sinks to lowest approval rating of this parliament

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Labour sinks to lowest approval rating of this parliament

Labour has sunk to its lowest approval rating for this parliament, according to a fresh YouGov poll for Sky News.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party is currently on 20% of the vote – the lowest level since last year’s general election and just three points ahead of the Conservatives. on 17% of the vote.

Politics latest: Labour goes on the attack against Reform

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which on Tuesday outlined plans to deport hundreds of thousands of migrants if it wins power at the next election, is currently in the lead with 28% of the vote.

Asked about the polling, Nick Thomas-Symonds, the EU relations minister, told Sky News’ Anna Jones that the government had been forced to take “very difficult decisions to stabilise the public finances early in this parliament”.

He said Labour had acted in the “national interest” by securing a reset deal with the EU which lowers costs for supermarkets and shoppers, and which the government hopes to extend.

“That is acting in the national interest, that is not about particular opinion polls you are showing me today,” he said.

“That is about work the prime minister asked me to do and to prepare for before this government came into office and that is what this government does. It does the hard yards of delivery for the British people.”

He added: “What Nigel Farage does is to stoke problems and offer empty promises for their solution.”

Mr Thomas-Symonds, who represents Torfaen, took the fight to Mr Farage in a speech today, where he accused the Reform UK leader of wanting to “reverse our progress” and of “dividing communities and stoking anger”.

The government wants to get a permanent deal with the EU on food and drink agreed in the next 18 months.

The current temporary agreement, which was put in place in June, stopped checks on some fruit and vegetables imported from the EU, which meant no border checks or fees would be paid, and is due to expire in January 2027.

Mr Farage has previously called for the agreement between the UK and EU to be torn up, saying in May that the SPS [sanitary and phytosanitary] provisions agreed that month would push the UK “back into the orbit of Brussels, giving away vast amounts of our sovereignty for very little in return”.

In his speech, Mr Thomas-Symonds said the Tories and Reform UK only offer “easy answers and snake oil” over the UK’s relationship with the EU.

“Some will hysterically cry even treason,” he said. “Some will say we’re surrendering sovereignty or freedoms, but that is nonsense.

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“We are determined to plug the gaps, to rebuild Britain, protect our borders, bring down bills in every part of the country and secure good jobs, a new relationship of mutual benefit, one that brings freedom back to our businesses and exercises our sovereignty.

“And it needs pragmatism. When you’re tough, decisive and collaborative. That cannot rest on easy answers and snake oil. The Tories [are] completely 2D, stuck with a ghost of Brexit past. And then Nigel Farage, who has pledged to reverse our progress.”

A Reform UK spokesperson said: “No one has done more damage to British businesses than this Labour government.

“With 157,000 fewer people on payroll since Labour took office, their jobs tax is stifling success and hitting small and medium-sized businesses across the country.

“Cosying up to the EU and leaving us entangled in reams of retained EU law which Kemi Badenoch failed to scrap will not resuscitate Britain’s struggling economy.”

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