Inside the big-money battle that could decide the ACC’s future
Florida State athletic director Michael Alford knew there’d be controversy when he addressed the school’s board of trustees last week. He’d already talked with several other athletic directors around the ACC who shared his concerns. There was an elephant in the room, Alford believed, and it was time someone addressed it directly, publicly, bluntly.
“At the end of the day, for Florida State to compete nationally,” Alford told the board, “something has to change moving forward.”
The numbers, he explained, are stark.
In the next few years, new TV deals for the SEC and Big Ten will kick in that will provide member institutions in those leagues with $30 to $40 million more annually than Florida State will receive from the ACC. The ACC distributed a record $36.1 million per full-time member for the 2020-21 season, a number that should grow slightly now that the league has full distribution of the ACC Network. The SEC’s upcoming TV contract, however, is expected to result in more than $70 million per team in payouts, while the Big Ten’s new deal is expected to distribute at least $80 million per team annually.
Florida State currently splits league profits evenly with 13 other full-time members of the ACC (and shares a portion with partial member Notre Dame). But Alford told the board the Seminoles are responsible for a far greater percentage of that revenue — as much as 15%, according to a consulting firm he hired on just his second day on the job — while earning just 7% of it in league payouts.
Put the two issues together — the size of the total revenue pie, and how the league chooses to slice it up — and Alford believes it will soon be nearly impossible for the Seminoles to compete for a national championship in football.
“I know how hard the commissioner and the office are working to provide solutions to the members of the conference to the revenue gap that we are projecting in the upcoming years to the media contracts,” Alford told ESPN. “But at the end of the day, in order to compete to the standard we want to compete in, there needs to be a change, and the status quo is not good enough.”
While Alford’s concerns have been discussed at length behind closed doors over the past two years, his decision to go public with his frustrations served as a clear message to some of his less-motivated colleagues that the timeline for change must be accelerated.
At least for now, Florida State and every ACC school are tied together through the league’s grant of rights, which gives the league control over each member’s media revenue and runs through 2036. That has largely insulated the league from the realignment turmoil that has roiled the rest of the college football world since Texas and Oklahoma first announced their intention to bolt the Big 12 for the SEC in 2021, but Alford’s comments, including speculation on what a potential exit from the league might cost, have brought the ACC’s future to the forefront.
“None of the concerns that were shared during that meeting were things that we haven’t already been looking at and addressing as a conference,” commissioner Jim Phillips told ESPN. “We’ve been open about our league’s discussion on revenue generation and business innovation, and have been exploring all options to enhance overall revenue.”
And yet, as Alford addressed his board of trustees, his primary frustration was that so little had changed. He is hardly alone, but according to nearly a dozen ACC administrators who spoke with ESPN, Florida State has been the most aggressive in pursuing a more lucrative financial future, including exploring the possibility of leaving the league altogether.
Asked by the board of trustees about a potential cost for departing the ACC, Florida State’s legal counsel suggested as little as $120 million, a figure Alford said “hypothetically” could be offset after just a few years of higher earnings in another league.
Alford’s math, however, doesn’t account for the grant of rights, which would make leaving the ACC — for FSU or anyone else — a difficult task.
The league’s agreement with its member schools requires an exit fee equal to three times annual revenue, or about $120 million. But the grant of rights could potentially prevent a team from earning TV revenue — or possibly even broadcasting its games — until the agreement expires. Phillips has frequently pointed at the plights of Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA as examples of how difficult it would be for a team to exit its grant of rights. The Longhorns and Sooners were forced to wait three seasons after announcing their intent to join the SEC, and still will pay $100 million to buy out the final year of their deal with the Big 12.
ACC schools have 13 years remaining on their deal.
Over the past two years, a number of schools have sent teams of lawyers to examine the official grant of rights document, either looking for a potential pathway out or assurances that the biggest brands can’t leave without a serious fight.
As one administrator told ESPN, those reviews have established several potentially compelling arguments for breaking the agreement but have uncovered no obvious loophole that would provide a pathway out without engaging in protracted litigation.
“Is it worth the paper it’s written on?” one AD said. “If one school starts to leave, then another, how strong is it? It would involve a major legal battle.”
And as one athletic director pointed out, it would also require another conference to extend an invitation to join before knowing whether it would have rights to broadcast that team’s games. It’s a legal Catch-22.
But for all the bluster — and at least one ACC athletic director considered Alford’s comments little more than playing to his fan base — the public statements were intended more as a warning than a threat.
A month earlier, ACC presidents and athletic directors met in Charlotte, where one of the primary topics on the agenda was revenue distribution. For years, bigger schools such as Clemson and Florida State have argued that dividing all revenue equally handcuffs schools hoping to contend at the highest levels in football, while a contingent of schools happily cashes the same checks without putting a serious focus the sport that drives the overwhelming majority of revenue.
.@FSUFootball is tops in the ACC in average TV viewership across all tiers from 2014-2021 #OneTribe pic.twitter.com/h5PC2zMG3f
— FSU Seminoles (@Seminoles) February 7, 2023
Several other administrators who spoke to ESPN quibbled with Alford’s exact numbers, but mostly agreed with his larger point: The teams serious about football deserve more because they’re bringing in more.
“I think the schools who are helping create the revenue should have an opportunity to participate in the revenue more than they are right now, rather than just slicing the pie the way it is in equal shares.” Miami athletic director Dan Radakovich said. “Rewarding success is a great motivator.”
That lack of motivation has been a point of contention for years, dating back to former commissioner John Swofford’s time at the helm. When Phillips took over in 2021, one of his primary objectives was to convince member schools to prioritize football and commit more resources to the sport. In the past year, for example, Phillips has urged schools to stop scheduling road games against Group of Five foes in order to save money. In 2022, the ACC played 10 such games, including three losses that damaged the league’s image, while the rest of the Power 5 combined played just 12.
The point is that winning at football requires a hefty financial investment, and even prior to Alford’s comments to the board of trustees, Clemson athletic director Graham Neff said the need for more revenue was “urgent” if the big brands wanted to compete with the SEC and Big Ten.
“In all candor, I put it as a need,” Neff told The [Charleston) Post and Courier. “We certainly recognize the investment that we’ve continued to make as an institution, in our community, in athletics, namely in football, which certainly drives a lot of value that is important from a television and revenue-generation standpoint. Is it time revenue distribution within conferences, or at least the ACC, is done differently? Yeah, I’ve been very active in those conversations within the league and continue to expect to take a leadership role in our desire for that to be a changed circumstance.”
Yet, after lengthy discussions at the ACC’s winter meetings, ADs emerged without anything approaching consensus on a new distribution plan, something that would require a two-thirds majority vote. Indeed, they can’t even agree on what to call the plan — “weighted distribution,” as one AD said, “alternative revenue,” as the league called it or “unequal” as most administrators opposing the plan have said.
For his part, however, Phillips believes there’s genuine energy behind finding a solution.
“I truly believe we have made progress,” Phillips said. “It’s a primary discussion point every time we get together. Not everybody liked all of the discussion or agreed with everything we said, but we left there agreeing to continue to put together options to consider as a league. We went from never discussing it to having subcommittees to help drive the conversation.”
During conversations about revising the revenue distribution plan, the league has run the numbers on a number of potential options, according to multiple sources involved in the talks, most of which involve a complicated formula that includes items like total scholarships offered, brand power, academic success and on-field success.
As one administrator at a smaller ACC school noted, however, revenue is a problem everywhere.
“I go to sleep thinking about revenue,” the administrator said, “and I wake up thinking about revenue.”
Even the most seismic shifts in distribution don’t exactly paint the picture of a financial windfall for power programs like Clemson and Florida State, however. Estimates shared by sources with knowledge of the discussions suggest a net shift of between $250,000 and $3 million annually — “pocket change,” as one AD called it — leading some administrators to wonder if it’s worth all the trouble.
“Philosophically, I believe that what’s good for one should be good for everyone,” one athletic director said. “Otherwise, you get a lot of disparity. The big thing is, if you’re making an extra $2 million because you went to the College Football Playoff, if you get asked to be in another league, like UCLA and USC did, it doesn’t matter. That’s not going to change your decision. They’re gone. So it’s not preventing what people are kind of concerned about, which is, if there was continued super expansion, people are gone.
“If you start creating those types of models within your own conference, are you really looking out for what’s best for the Big Ten or the ACC or fill in the blank? Or are you looking out for what’s best for you?”
So solving the thorny issue of whether Boston College should earn the same amount from the ACC that Clemson does wouldn’t do anything to address the larger issue that Indiana and Vanderbilt could earn twice as much from their respective leagues as anyone in the ACC gets in a TV contract that runs for another 13 years. Indeed, the SEC and Big Ten will negotiate yet another new TV contract before the ACC’s existing deal is set to expire.
And yet, as another AD noted, a change to revenue distribution is less about solving the big-picture problem and more about the principle — about getting every school on board with the idea that the status quo isn’t sustainable. As it stands, the ACC is holding steady — the No. 3 league in the Power 5, as Phillips has noted routinely — and too many of the league’s members seem content with that.
“In the last two years, we’ve seen two of our neighbors’ houses catch fire,” the AD lamented, “and we keep thinking ours won’t be next.”
Last year, the ACC hired a consulting firm, FishBait Solutions, to address the bigger-picture revenue concerns, but several ACC power brokers who spoke with ESPN lamented the incremental steps forward — hosting concerts or other events at school-owned venues or working to activate new multimedia content options — might provide tens of thousands, when the gap with the SEC and Big Ten is tens of millions.
The revenue distribution changes could open the door to expansion, too — allowing the ACC to potentially pay newer members a smaller share of the total — but those talks have largely fallen flat, according to multiple sources. While the league has run numbers on what several potential expansion options might add to the pie, none looked like a financial bonanza, and several ADs were reluctant to see the league grow amidst so much turmoil both inside and outside the ACC.
“We continually evaluate all options that can further strengthen our conference, including adding new members,” Phillips said. “We’ve always looked at opportunities to expand when it’s made sense.”
But step away from the accounting ledgers, Phillips said, and there’s ample reason for optimism.
“We’re having enormous success,” he said. “When you think about where the ACC is now — winning more championships than any conference last year, the Learfield Directors Cup fall standings, the academic success — the financial aspect of this is very important but we have a tremendous league that has been prospering.”
And Phillips argued that the financials have improved, too. Last year, the ACC Network reached full distribution and is now available in the same number of homes as the Big Ten Network and the SEC Network. And the commissioner touts other new sponsorship opportunities he says will help the bottom line.
Phillips said he believes the ACC is a “prominent, dominant” league and he’s “confident that membership will stay together, now and into the future.”
“I don’t know that there’s a magic bullet on this thing. I’m not sure there’s one thing you can do to address the gap,” Phillips said. “I think you have to address it in several ways and I’m confident we’ll do that. I’m confident in the health of this league and that we’ll continue to work together.”
To Alford’s mind, however, the longer term picture remains bleak compared with the immense growth of the SEC and Big Ten. When the ACC signed its 20-year TV deal with ESPN in 2016 — a deal approved by several of the current athletic directors and school presidents, it should be noted — the payout wasn’t entirely out of step with the rest of the country, and it opened the door for the league to launch its own TV network. But six years later, the landscape has changed markedly, the frustrations have grown exponentially, and the financial constraints, which several ADs noted are already being felt, will soon become an existential threat.
Alford’s comments were a warning to his colleagues that time is running out to change those fortunes, and several administrators privately offered a similar lament to Alford’s public statements. Change isn’t about appeasement. It’s about survival.
“At the end of the day, we need to try. And if, if we can’t get things done, then, at least we can look around and say, ‘All right, we attempted to get something done, we weren’t able to do it,'” Radakovich said. “And then, if down the road, schools do choose to leave, it should not be a surprise.”
The 2025 season is on the way and several budding players on our Way-Too-Early Top 25 teams are primed for breakout campaigns.
Tony Rojas should add to Penn State’s proud Linebacker U tradition. After a banner freshman season, safety KJ Bolden is on his way to becoming Georgia’s next defensive star. And incoming freshman running back Gideon Davidson could give Clemson’s offense an immediate jolt.
Who else could break out in 2025? Our college football experts break it down:
Breakout player: Eddrick Houston, DE
With all four starting defensive linemen (Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton) from the national title team moving on to the NFL, the Buckeyes have a major void to fill up front. But Houston, the No. 35 overall recruit last year, seems primed to step into a lynchpin role along the defensive line. Houston (6-foot-3, 270 pounds) was recruited as a defensive end but played inside last season. Wherever he ends up in 2025, he figures to be an impact player for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Breakout player: Arch Manning, QB
It’s kind of hard to break out when your name is Arch Manning — even if he’s a first-year starter — so we’ll go with the man who could be Manning’s security blanket in coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense: Spencer Shannon. Two years ago, Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders caught 45 passes for 682 yards. Last season, TE Gunnar Helm caught 60 passes for 786 yards and seven TDs. As a redshirt freshman, he appeared in four games last season, but Sarkisian has touted him as their best in-line blocker and someone who has vastly improved his ball skills. At 6-7 and 255 pounds, he’s a mismatch for linebackers and Sarkisian noted he has spent two seasons practicing with Manning already, so they have a rapport. — Dave Wilson
Breakout player: Tony Rojas, LB
After earning honorable-mention All-Big Ten honors as a sophomore, Rojas, a rising standout linebacker, seems primed for a big 2025 season. Rojas surged in the College Football Playoff, highlighted by his pick-six in Penn State’s opening-round victory over SMU. With Abdul Carter on his way to the NFL and All-Big Ten linebacker Kobe King gone as well, Rojas should take on a more central role under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. — Trotter
Breakout player: Jaden Greathouse, WR
Until the CFP semifinal and national championship game, Greathouse had only 359 yards receiving. But in those final two games against Penn State and Ohio State, Greathouse stepped up for 13 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. In the second half against the Buckeyes, Greathouse spearheaded a furious Notre Dame comeback that came up just short. That spectacular ending could prove to be a springboard for Greathouse to be even greater in 2025. — Trotter
Breakout player: KJ Bolden, DB
One of the best young defenders in the SEC last season, Bolden made his presence felt on the back end of that Georgia defense. As a true freshman, Bolden was overshadowed by All-American safety Malaki Starks but rose up and played some of his best football in the postseason. He’ll only get better in 2025 and will be one of the anchors in a Georgia secondary that is also returning some talented young cornerbacks. Bolden is an excellent open-field tackler and, according to Pro Football Focus, gave up only eight yards in 134 coverage snaps last season. — Chris Low
Breakout player: Makhi Hughes, RB
Running back Jordan James was an underrated part of the Oregon offense last season and, with him leaving for the NFL, the Ducks were quick to add Hughes from the transfer portal to try to fill the void. Hughes spent his past two seasons at Tulane averaging over 5 yards per carry each of those two seasons and totaling 22 touchdowns (15 last season). Without Dillon Gabriel under center and with a younger quarterback in Dante Moore taking over, it wouldn’t be surprising if offensive coordinator Will Stein relies on Hughes (as well as the rest of the Ducks’ running back room) to be the fulcrum of their offense this coming season. — Paolo Uggetti
Breakout player: Gideon Davidson, RB
Unlike last season, when Clemson was all-too tethered to Phil Mafah, it’s a crowded backfield for the Tigers in 2025. Still, that doesn’t mean a lead back won’t emerge from a group that includes last year’s second-leading rusher Jay Haynes, David Eziomume, Keith Adams Jr. and converted receiver Adam Randall. But if there’s a true superstar to emerge, set those sights Davidson, a true freshman described by coach Dabo Swinney as “the best freshman back in the country.” Davidson was ranked as a top-100 prospect across the board, and he averaged better than 9 yards per carry in high school. He’s explosive and powerful, and if he hits the ground running at Clemson, he could carve out a sizable role on an offense poised to be among the most talented in the country. — David Hale
Breakout player: Nic Anderson, WR
Even though he’s new to the LSU roster after transferring from Oklahoma, Anderson has all the tools to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in 2025, especially with Garrett Nussmeier throwing to him. The 6-4, 220-pound Anderson sat out all but one game last season after tearing his quadriceps. But as a redshirt freshman in 2023, he set an Oklahoma freshman record with 10 touchdown catches and averaged 21 yards per catch. Anderson is back to full strength, and with Kyren Lacy headed to NFL, Anderson should emerge as the go-to receiver in LSU’s offense. — Low
Breakout player: Keelan Marion, WR
The Cougars return their top two pass catchers from last season between Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter. But if a BYU offense that finished 11th in passing yards per game among Big 12 programs last season is going to take a leap with second-year starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff, it might require Marion to carve out a larger role. An All-American kick returner who caught 24 passes in 2024, Marion has yet to fully unleash the downfield potential he flashed when he hauled in 28 passes for 474 yards and 5 touchdowns as a freshman at UConn in 2021. Year 3 with the Cougars could be the platform for Marion and his elite speed to become another important weapon for a BYU offense shouldering the weight of Big 12 title and legitimate playoff aspirations in 2025. — Eli Lederman
Breakout player: Nyck Harbor, WR
There might not be a receiver in the country more physically intimidating than Nyck Harbor, who checks in at 6-5, 235 pounds. That’s made him an object of curiosity on South Carolina’s offense for the past two years, despite only small steps forward in his development. But as LaNorris Sellers blossomed down the stretch last season, Harbor, too, seemed to find something extra, finishing with 15 catches, 272 yards and two scores in his final five games of the 2024 season. The Gamecocks wide receivers room was less than dynamic as a whole last year, but Harbor represents real promise — and after two years of incremental improvement, he looks poised to truly deliver on that promise in 2025. — Hale
Breakout player: Cannon Butler, DL
A central focus of the Cyclones’ offseason has been the challenge of replacing 1,110-yard receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, and Iowa State added a pair of new options for quarterback Rocco Becht in transfer pass catchers Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF). But the Cyclones also have production to fill in on the defensive line after the departures of defensive end Joey Petersen (team-high 8.0 TFL last fall) and 2024 sack leader J.R. Singleton. Enter Butler, an athletic defensive lineman and Northern Iowa transfer who totaled 59 tackles and 1.5 sacks in an impressive junior season last fall. At 6-6, 241 pounds, Cannon carries positional flexibility to play on the edge or inside and has tools to establish himself as a valuable component in an otherwise inexperienced Cyclones defensive end unit this fall. — Lederman
Breakout player: Ty Simpson, QB
There will be some intrigue this spring surrounding the quarterback battle at Alabama, especially with Ryan Grubb coming in as offensive coordinator. The Crimson Tide brought in five-star freshman Keelon Russell, and talented Austin Mack followed Kalen DeBoer to Alabama from Washington last year. But it’s Simpson’s time now after backing up Jalen Milroe the past two seasons. The Alabama staff really liked the way Simpson competed last preseason and last spring, and he wasn’t too far behind Milroe. While not as dynamic an athlete as Milroe, Simpson is still plenty athletic and more consistent throwing the ball. This is Simpson’s fourth year on campus, and though he hasn’t played much, he’s a good fit for what Grubb and DeBoer want to do on offense. — Low
Breakout player: Cole Rusk, TE
The Illini had big hopes last season for Rusk, who transferred in after earning FCS All-American honors at Murray State. But Rusk sustained a season-ending knee injury during fall camp. Rusk will now have an opportunity to give quarterback Luke Altmyer a reliable pass-catching option after Illinois’ tight ends combined to generate only 20 receptions last season. — Trotter
Breakout player: Kyson Brown, RB
Replacing the 1,711 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns All-American running back Cam Skattebo produced last fall won’t be easy. The portal addition of Army transfer Kanye Udoh (1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024) is promising for the Sun Devils’ 2025 backfield, but the 293 carries Skattebo logged last season are more than Udoh had in two years at Army (278), meaning Arizona State probably will have to spread its backfield snaps a bit more in 2025. If that’s the case, third-year rusher Brown could be in line for a bigger role this fall after recording 351 yards and a pair of scores, averaging 4.81 yards per attempt as a sophomore. Brown’s ability in the passing game also distinguishes him alongside Udoh, who brings a grand total of two career receptions in 23 career games operating in Army’s run-heavy offense. — Lederman
Breakout player: LJ Johnson Jr., RB
Miami transfer Brashard Smith was a surprise star for the Mustangs last season, rushing for 1,332 yards and 14 TDs. With Smith departing for the NFL, Johnson, who rushed for 879 yards over the past two seasons, returns to give the Mustangs a powerful runner, but SMU spreads the field and will need someone to help fill Smith’s shoes. Rhett Lashlee highlighted freshman Dramekco Green Jr., who averaged 9.2 yards per carry and rushed for more than 1,500 yards as a high school senior, as someone who could get early playing time. — Wilson
Breakout player: Jerand Bradley, WR
The stakes are heightened for second-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson in 2025, and Kansas State reinforced at wide receiver to help him this offseason, adding transfer pass catchers Bradley (Boston College), Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Jaron Tibbs (Purdue). Among that trio, Bradley stands out as the most intriguing. The 6-5 receiver, who began his career at Texas Tech, never fully settled in during his lone season at Boston College in 2024. But Bradley been as an productive downfield target in the Big 12 before, hauling in 87 passes for 1,175 yards and 10 touchdowns across the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Red Raiders, and he’ll have an opportunity to assert himself in the Wildcats’ passing attack alongside top returner Jayce Brown, who logged 47 receptions for 832 yards and 5 touchdown in 2024. — Lederman
Breakout player: Zen Michalski, OL
The Hoosiers picked up a key transfer from down the road in former Notre Dame center Pat Coogan, who started 26 games for the Fighting Irish. But another transfer could also play a big role up front as Indiana revamps its offensive line after last year’s playoff run. Michalski stepped in after left tackle Josh Simmons sustained a season-ending knee injury, then started the next game against Nebraska before sustaining his own injury. Michalski could slide in at right tackle in his first season as a full-time starter and solidify an Indiana offense that holds promise behind transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza. — Trotter
Breakout player: Caleb Banks, DT
The Gators got a huge win when defensive tackle Banks decided to return to school for one more season to anchor a front that improved dramatically as 2024 progressed. Banks had an impressive final month. In the final three games, the 6-6, 325-pound Banks had seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. In all, he had 21 tackles (10 solo) and will now be relied on to help set the tone up front for a team with growing expectations. As much excitement as there is surrounding DJ Lagway, there is also tremendous upside for the Florida defense heading into 2025. — Andrea Adelson
Breakout player: Mike Matthews, WR
Matthews came in as a five-star receiver last season as a freshman but didn’t provide much production for a Tennessee offense that was lacking in explosive plays. He briefly flirted with transferring after the season but decided to return and is somebody the Vols desperately need to blossom and give them some firepower in the passing game. Matthews caught seven passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns last season. He has big-play ability written all over him, and with Tennessee losing seven receivers from last season’s team, there’s a chance for Matthews to live up to his billing. — Low
Breakout player: Jordan Guerad, DL
After battling an early season injury, Guerad had a strong finish to his season, culminating with six tackles (two for a loss) and a sack in the bowl game against Washington. The interior of the D-line looks like a point of need for the Cardinals after the departures of Thor Griffin, Dezmond Tell and Notre Dame transfer Jared Dawson, but a healthy Guerad will get ample opportunity to continue his development and prove he’s the answer to Louisville’s biggest defensive need. — Hale
Breakout player: Jordan Marshall, RB
The Wolverines featured a strong running back duo last season in Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, who combined for 1,537 yards. But with both runners sitting out the ReliaQuest Bowl to prepare for the draft, the Wolverines might have uncovered their back of the future in Marshall. A blue-chip freshman out of Ohio, Marshall rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries in the first meaningful action of his career, earning bowl game MVP honors in Michigan’s 19-13 victory over Alabama. With Marshall and Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, running back seems primed to remain a strength for the Wolverines. — Trotter
Breakout player: Terry Bussey, WR
The Aggies landed the dynamic Bussey, the No. 1 athlete and No. 18 overall prospect in the 2024 ESPN 300, with an eye on him playing cornerback. But with a more urgent need for playmakers on offense, he switched to wide receiver late in the summer. His best game came against Missouri, when he caught three passes for 76 yards. On the season, he caught only 17 passes, but 11 came in the last four games. With a year under his belt on offense full time, the Aggies are hoping to find more creative ways to utilize his 4.4 speed. — Wilson
Breakout player: Elija Lofton, TE
Lofton drew raves last season as a freshman for his versatility and playmaking ability. Though he played in every game, Miami had three more experienced tight ends on the roster so his snaps were limited. That will no longer be the case heading into the 2025 season. With Elijah Arroyo, Cam McCormick and Riley Williams all gone, Lofton will take over as the top tight end. Though it might appear that the group depth will take a hit, the coaching staff feels great about the position because of what Lofton is poised to become as he reaches his full potential. At 6-3, 230 pounds, he has the athleticism to play both tight end and running back, but also the size and strength to block the way Miami expects from its tight ends. — Adelson
Breakout players: Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines, RBs
There is no more Ashton Jeanty in the backfield for Boise State, but the majority of the offense built to support a strong running attack remains. It’s why Dubar and Gaines could be in line for breakout seasons. In two seasons, Dubar has had limited action (87 carries, 434 yards and 4 touchdowns) and Gaines’ freshman season in 2024 featured 20 carries for 156 yards and 1 touchdown. With quarterback Maddux Madsen returning, and an internal hire as the new offensive coordinator in Matt Miller, the system that can fuel another explosive rusher is not so different in 2025. Come the fall, Madsen probably will be asked to do a lot more, but so will Dubar and Gaines. — Uggetti
Breakout player: Zxavian Harris, DT
Ole Miss had one of the most dominant defensive lines in the country last season, and the Rebels’ numbers bear that out. They were second nationally in scoring defense and rushing defense and set a school record with 53 sacks. Most of the key players from that unit are gone, but Harris, a 6-7, 320-pound tackle, returns in the middle of that Ole Miss defensive line and will be force in 2025. He has played in 37 games over the past three seasons and shown flashes of dominance. His senior season will be his best yet, and Ole Miss will need that from him. — Low
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Jorge Castillo
SARASOTA, Fla. — The state of the 2025 Baltimore Orioles, one of enviable surplus in position-player talent and a potential deficit in the pitching department, was on display in their clubhouse Tuesday afternoon.
First, 41-year-old Charlie Morton, the second-oldest player in the majors, was scratched from his Grapefruit League start against the Toronto Blue Jays that evening without an immediate reason, briefly raising concerns that the Orioles’ rotation had experienced another setback. Within minutes, corner infielder Coby Mayo, one of the top prospects in baseball, openly expressed his displeasure to reporters about Baltimore’s decision to option him to minor league camp.
But Morton was not injured — the Orioles just chose to have him pitch in a simulated setting on a back field instead of facing a division rival. And the Orioles are not down on Mayo, who has clubbed 34 home runs with a .919 OPS in Triple-A over the past two seasons — they simply decided they did not have room for him on the big league roster.
“That’s what happens when you have good teams,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said.
The Orioles expect to be good for a reason. The question is, how good?
This year’s club features a lineup, fueled by a ballyhooed young core, that should mash even after Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs left to join the Blue Jays during the offseason. The starting rotation, however, projects as the worst in a loaded American League East — the only division in baseball that PECOTA projects will have all five teams win at least 80 games.
“The other four teams are really, really good teams,” Hyde said. “It’s going to be a dogfight every night. You’re going to be facing somebody that’s really good on a nightly basis in the division.”
The Orioles have been good enough to navigate the treacherous AL East and reach the postseason in each of the past two years. Whether they can make another playoff appearance — and finally win a game in October — will come down to their pitching, particularly the starting rotation.
The Orioles do not have a proven ace. They had one last season in Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young Award winner whom they acquired entering his final season before free agency. Burnes had an All-Star season in Baltimore, posting a 2.92 ERA across 32 starts. Then he left. Seeking a home out West, the right-hander signed a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks at the end of December.
The Orioles have replaced him with two veteran free agents on the wrong side of the aging curve — Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano — on one-year deals for a combined $28 million. To fill the hole left by Santander in the outfield, they signed veteran Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal. In the process, Baltimore, in David Rubenstein’s first offseason as principal owner, raised its luxury tax payroll from $89.4 million last season to $126.8 million, which ranks 24th in baseball, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
“I think it’s a tough thing in sports, particularly for baseball, particularly for teams that aren’t the handful of larger market teams that can run the $300 million payrolls, that you’re going to have athletes leave,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias said. “Nobody wants it any time, but a big part of our profession is scripting out what’s the healthiest way to run the organization long term and from top to bottom and sometimes that involves not being the winner on a free agent.”
The rotation took another step back earlier this month when Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles’ projected No. 1 starter, was shut down with elbow inflammation. He started throwing again Tuesday, but will begin the season on the injured list, leaving Zach Eflin to start on Opening Day in Toronto. Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Albert Suárez complete Baltimore’s list of options for the rotation.
Internal reinforcements could eventually bolster the group. Right-hander Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2023, is on track to join the rotation in the second half of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. Left-hander Trevor Rogers, an All-Star in 2021 who struggled mightily upon being traded to Baltimore last summer, could be available early in the season after dislocating his right kneecap in January.
The final spot in the rotation is a competition between Povich, a 24-year-old left-hander who recorded a 5.54 ERA in 16 starts last season, and Suárez, a 35-year-old journeyman who emerged last season to post a 3.70 ERA across 133⅔ innings. Povich was given Morton’s start Tuesday and tossed five hitless innings, better positioning himself for the job. Morton, meanwhile, threw to Orioles hitters on a back field as he prepares for his 17th season.
The right-hander launched his career as a mediocre young pitcher, became a first-time All-Star at 34 years old and is now an age-defying wonder who has outlasted most of his peers. Along the way, he’s been around successful young rosters. He was on the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ last playoff teams in the mid-2010s. He won a World Series with the Houston Astros in 2017, advanced to another one with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 and won his second title with the Atlanta Braves in 2021.
He said these Orioles, a few of whom are nearly half his age, remind him of the Astros teams he played on.
“I think certainly you want to prove yourself on an individual level to other people, to yourself,” Morton said. “But once you start to taste winning and once you start to kind of see that you can be, as a group, better than you, then you kind of build a momentum. And that momentum becomes something that really shapes your identity. And then you start to, as a group, believe in being able to do things that are greater than what you thought you could do maybe at the beginning. I think in Houston we had that.”
The Orioles’ position-player group, while bursting with talent, is not foolproof. Superstar shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who finished fourth in AL MVP voting in his age-23 season in 2024, could miss the start of the season with an intercostal injury. Two-time All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman, the organization’s other cornerstone, is seeking to rebound from a second-half collapse in production. Second baseman Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in baseball a year ago, will look to establish himself after slashing .189/.255/.311 in 60 games as a 20-year-old rookie.
“We have guys that still haven’t reached their upside for me,” Hyde said.
If that happens — if Henderson somehow takes another step, if Rutschman rediscovers his form, if Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, all 26 and under, play to their potential — then the Orioles will be very good. To be great, they’ll need their rotation to exceed expectations.
“We made the playoffs,” first baseman Ryan Mountcastle said of last year’s club, which was swept in the wild-card round by the Kansas City Royals. “That’s always huge. You just got to get there first. It wasn’t the end result we wanted, but I think we’ve learned from it, we’ve grown from it. Hopefully we bring it into this coming year, hopefully make the playoffs again and make a better run.”
The race for the Western Conference’s second wild-card spot is by no means a two-team showdown — but the two teams tied in standings points for that position are squaring off on Thursday.
The Vancouver Canucks — who currently hold the coveted playoff spot, with 75 points and 25 regulation wins in 68 games — will be visiting the St. Louis Blues (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+), who also have 75 points and 25 regulation wins but in 69 games.
So, with apologies to the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club, Thursday night’s clash has become extra pivotal, after the clubs split the first two games of the season series and will not play again.
Looking beyond this game, the Blues play five of their remaining 12 games against current playoff teams; the Canucks have an extra game down the stretch, but they play seven of their final 13 against playoff teams, including five of their final six.
Stathletes likes the Blues’ postseason future a bit more, putting their playoff chances at 56.8%, with the Canucks at 26.3%.
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Thursday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, 8:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, 9 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Wednesday’s scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Minnesota Wild 4, Seattle Kraken 0
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 101.6
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 94.2
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 36.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: @ VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 5.1%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 74.6
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 20
Metro Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118.2
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 25.5%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 23.8%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 12.4%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 77.3
Next game: vs. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Central Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 116.5
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 108.9
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 101.0
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 98.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 92.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 56.8%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 8.6%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 71.0
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 59.1
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 3
Pacific Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 101.3
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90.4
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 26.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 16.5%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
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