
Fantasy baseball: Should you take the plunge with these risky players?
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2 years agoon
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Tristan H. Cockcroft
You can’t win a fantasy baseball championship without taking some chances.
Whether it’s a player’s injury history, inexperience, year-over-year inconsistency or a skill set or advanced metrics that don’t match his raw statistics, many factors can attract us to certain players, as well as scare us away from them entirely. Deciphering these, in order to make our best estimates on their seasonal expectations, can be critical to our draft preparation. After all, known commodities can provide a strong base from which to build our fantasy teams, but it’s the players with the widest ranges of potential outcomes who can provide us the most profit potential.
Fortunately, this column is to help you on this risk/reward research quest. Listed below are 10 of the players I see as having some of the widest ranges of potential 2023 outcomes. What might be in store for each? Let’s take a look.
Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has averaged 21 quality starts, a 2.05 ERA and 291 strikeouts per 162 team games while on the active roster. In the history of baseball, only six pitchers have had a season in which they met or exceeded all three of those numbers, and not one of them had a WHIP as low as deGrom’s 0.73 in his 162-game, prorated time span.
The bad: He has been on the active roster for only 51% of his team’s games during that time.
Take the chance? Well, deGrom’s 2023 spring training has followed this same peaks-and-valleys pattern, as he experienced side soreness in its opening days then was absolutely brilliant in his first Cactus League appearance this past Sunday. This seems an inescapable pattern, and there’s always the chance the forearm issues he battled throughout 2021 might resurface. He is so good when healthy, though, that I default to “yes, absolutely.” He also has reasonable ADPs of 27th overall in National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues over the past 10 days and 22nd overall in ESPN standard points-based leagues.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has slugged .576 while averaging 51 home runs, 93 RBIs and 110 runs scored per 162 games played. Aaron Judge (2017, 2022) and Giancarlo Stanton (2017) are the only players who have met or exceeded all of those thresholds in any of the past 15 seasons.
The bad: He has played in exactly 50% of Twins games over that time.
Take the chance? No, but that’s also because it’s tough to trust a player whose team has kept him in metaphorical bubble wrap all spring, and presumably will limit him to DH duty to begin the regular season (while also probably hampering his freedom on the base paths). Buxton’s answer here hinges entirely on his asking price in your specific league, as I have shares in some places where it was reasonable. One sign that it generally won’t be reasonable is that he’s going roughly 40 spots earlier than my ranking in ESPN standard points-based leagues.
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
The good: Through his four-year, big league career to date, he has batted .292/.369/.596 while averaging 48 home runs, 116 RBIs, 31 stolen bases and 125 runs scored per 162 games played. The only player in history to reach all of those thresholds in a single season was Larry Walker (1997), who did it as a member of the Colorado Rockies.
The bad: Tatis has played in exactly 50% of Padres games since the date of his big league debut in 2019.
Take the chance? He wouldn’t even be on here if not for his 80-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy, a penalty that ended his 2022 before it began, will cost him an additional 20 games at the start of 2023, and has cast some doubt among fantasy managers about the legitimacy of his above numbers. Nevertheless, Tatis is a dynamic talent — a five-category standout — who has looked outstanding in recent spring action. He has that deGrom-esque, so-good-when-healthy skill set that warrants an easy “yes.”
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
The good: Statcast had Cruz with a 15.5% barrel rate and 29.9 feet-per-second sprint speed last season, which placed him in the 96th and 98th percentiles across the league. He joined Buxton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with at least as many batted balls in play last season who also finished in the 90th percentile or better in both departments.
The bad: His 35.8% miss rate on swings ranked in the fifth percentile and 35.1% strikeout rate ranked in the second percentile among players who came to the plate at least as many times as he did in 2021-22 combined.
Take the chance? Yes! Cruz might be the least experienced name on this list, and his fantasy managers must remember to be patient through his cold spells, such as his 1-for-14, six-strikeout stretch since I published that linked sleepers column. The only reason to hesitate is the asking price, currently a generous 59th overall in NFBC and 88th overall in ESPN points-based leagues, both of which are a tad high for my tastes. Still, Cruz is one of the very few players in the game with the natural skills to join the 30/30 club, one that has added only five new members over the past 10 seasons after there were 49 instances of a 30/30 campaign in the previous 26 years.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees
The good: He’s the king of Statcast hard contact, as in the system’s eight seasons, his 93.9 mph average exit velocity ranks second best, his 17.6% barrel rate ranks fifth best and his 50.9% hard-hit rate ranks fifth best. Stanton has averaged 40 home runs per 162 games played in his five years with the Yankees.
The bad: He has made six trips to the injured list across the past four seasons alone, totaling 223 missed Yankees games.
Take the chance? The Yankees’ lack of outfield depth, coupled with an overcrowded infield that demands the flexibility of the DH role, probably will press Stanton into a repeat (or more) of his 38 outfield appearances in 2022. That will put him at increased risk of future IL stints, and then there’s that career-worst .211 batting average with which to contend. He’ll be the cheapest of these first five, but not enough so to be worth the chance.
Other risk/reward quick takes
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: An oblique strain that threatens to sideline him into May is just the latest of a litany of injuries, and bear in mind that he hasn’t exceeded 111⅔ innings in any of his past five seasons. I’m not a big believer in players fitting that description who are beginning the new season hurt, and Glasnow’s No. 153 overall NFBC ADP represents a pretty hefty price tag.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: A 2021 breakthrough performer, he struggled with injuries on three separate occasions last season, and yet, he’s still going within the top 100 overall in NFBC leagues. O’Neill is one of the more underrated speedsters in the game, with exceptional power metrics in 2021, but he’s a player who would be much more attractive a pick if he slid two to three rounds beyond his current ADP.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: He’s having a stellar spring training, will serve as the cleanup man behind a loaded top three of the Angels’ lineup and, perhaps most importantly, is going outside the top 180 overall picks in both roto and points-based leagues. Rendon, now 32 years old, is at a stage of his career when injuries are a mounting concern, but he’s looking like a good rebound candidate for the price.
Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox: My biggest concern with him is his precipitous drop in Statcast sprint speed, which explains his zero stolen bases from last June 13 forward. Robert needs to recapture some of those lost steals, but what appeals to me are his underrated contact metrics. He’s the player on this list for whom I could most go in either direction, but his current ADP is leaning slightly too generous.
Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: He has had two good spring outings and one mediocre one, with the key takeaway that he’s seemingly healthy and throwing with decent velocity. The level of caution with which the Red Sox treated him last season casts concerns that he might not be afforded more than 140 innings in 2023, but for the current price — 122nd overall in NFBC and 134th in ESPN points-based leagues — he looks like a potentially profitable pitcher.
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Sports
Source: 5-star Keys flips from LSU to Tennessee
Published
6 hours agoon
August 28, 2025By
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Eli LedermanAug 28, 2025, 06:48 PM ET
Close- Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
Five-star pass catcher Tristen Keys, ESPN’s No. 2 wide receiver in the 2026 class, flipped his commitment from LSU to Tennessee on Thursday afternoon, a source told ESPN.
Keys, who is 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, is the No. 10 prospect in the 2026 ESPN 300. He is the second-ranked member of the Vols’ 2026 class, trailing only five-star quarterback Faizon Brandon, ESPN’s No. 8 recruit this cycle.
Keys, who is from Hattiesburg, Mississippi, had verbally committed to the Tigers since March 19. However, he maintained an open recruitment throughout the summer, speaking with multiple programs during official visits to Auburn, Miami, Tennessee and Texas A&M. With Keys’ flip, LSU has lost a five-star wide receiver pledge in consecutive cycles, after Dakorien Moore‘s decommitment in 2025.
Keys headlines a stacked pass-catching class that the Vols are building around Brandon, ESPN’s No. 3 pocket passer prospect. Keys joins Salesi Moa (No. 35 overall), Tyreek King (No. 52) and Joel Wyatt (No. 66) as the program’s fourth top-100 wide receiver pledge in 2026. Tennessee ranked 15th in ESPN’s class rankings for the cycle prior to Keys’ flip.
Keys caught 58 passes for 1,275 yards and 14 touchdowns in his junior season last fall, guiding Hattiesburg (Miss.) High School to Mississippi’s 6A state title game. He later participated in the Under Armour All-America Game and the Polynesian Bowl earlier this year.
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GameDay Kickoff: Expectations for Jeremiah Smith, LSU-Clemson and more ahead of Week 1
Published
15 hours agoon
August 28, 2025By
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Week 1 is finally here and there’s plenty to know about ahead of this weekend. Top 25 matchups will be played, and many freshmen will have the chance to show if they can shine under the bright lights for the first time.
All eyes will be on No. 1 Texas-No. 3 Ohio State as the Longhorns travel to the Horseshoe Saturday. What can we expect to see from Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith in Week 1? No. 9 LSU travels to No. 4 Clemson in a tough road matchup to start off the season. While Brian Kelly and LSU have yet to win a Week 1 matchup the past three seasons, will this be the game that changes that? As we look forward to a jam-packed weekend, we take a look back at some of the best quotes of the offseason.
Our reporters break down what to know entering Week 1.
Jump to:
Expectations for Arch and Jeremiah
LSU-Clemson | Freshmen to watch
Offseason quotes
Texas-Ohio State preview
What do we need to see from Arch Manning Week 1?
We can expect Manning to take some deep shots, especially to receiver Ryan Wingo, who Manning has raved about all offseason. The Longhorns weren’t great at stretching the field last season with Quinn Ewers, but whenever Manning got in, he looked to make big plays. Texas’ offensive staffers said this spring they keep reminding Manning that he just needs to keep the offense moving forward and to take the easy throws when he can, especially while breaking in four new starters on the offensive line. Similarly, Manning, who has open-field speed, has been reminded by everyone — including his grandfather, Archie, who liked to run around a little bit — to get down or get out of bounds, and not to drop his shoulder and try to run anyone over. Manning doesn’t have to be “superhuman” or “do anything that is extraordinary,” Steve Sarkisian said on Monday. But a solid performance on the road at No. 3 Ohio State to open the season would set the Longhorns on a national championship trajectory. — Dave Wilson
What can we expect from Jeremiah Smith in his sophomore debut?
Smith noted during Big Ten media days last month that with a year of experience behind him, he expects to play even faster this season. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of college football, considering Smith put together one of the greatest true freshman seasons in college football history, capped with his game-clinching reception that lifted Ohio State to a national championship. The Longhorns were one of the only teams to keep Smith in check last year, holding him to just one catch for three yards. Of course, the attention on Smith allowed Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka to thrive, combining for 12 receptions in the 28-14 Buckeyes win. Still, Smith said he has been waiting for this opportunity to face Texas again. How new quarterback Julian Sayin performs could dictate the quality of Smith’s opportunities. Either way, Smith is primed to put on a show on the big Week 1 stage. — Jake Trotter
What each team needs to capitalize on to win
LSU: Four starters from last year’s starting offensive line were selected in the 2025 NFL draft, but that doesn’t mean LSU was elite up front. The Tigers ranked last in the SEC in rushing offense and mustered just 1.5 yards before contact on dropbacks, ahead of only Vanderbilt. This year’s unit will need to improve dramatically on that clip if LSU wants to contend for a playoff berth and that starts with the opener against Clemson. Clemson’s defensive front, manned by Peter Woods and T.J. Parker, is stout, and new coordinator Tom Allen will have his sights set on making LSU one-dimensional. The key to getting the ground game going will be a youth movement in the backfield led by Caden Durham and five-star freshman Harlem Berry. — David Hale
Clemson: As Hale mentioned, Clemson needs to dominate up front — as much as that sounds like a cliché. LSU coach Brian Kelly said he planned to rotate as many as eight offensive linemen in the opener, which is a nod to team depth, but may not be conducive in the type of environment they will be playing in. Clemson is eager to show that it has vastly improved in its front seven under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who brings a far more aggressive approach with his scheme. That aggressiveness was missing a year ago, as Clemson struggled to stop the run and consistently get after the quarterback with its best pass rushers. Clemson ranked No. 85 against the run a season ago while Penn State, where Allen coached, ranked No. 9. The same can be said on offense, where a veteran offensive line must help Clemson get the ground game going. Cade Klubnik was more effective as a passer last season because the Tigers had balance in their ground game. Converted receiver Adam Randall gets the nod at running back, and true freshman Gideon Davidson is expected to play. — Andrea Adelson
Five freshmen to watch in Week 1
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan, No. 1 in 2025 ESPN 300
Underwood shook the recruiting world with his late-cycle flip from LSU to the in-state Wolverines last November. Ten months later, ESPN’s top 2025 recruit is set to be the program’s Week 1 starter when No. 14 Michigan hosts New Mexico on Saturday.
Underwood’s elite arm talent, pocket awareness and mobility has impressed the Wolverines’ coaching staff since he arrived on campus in January, as has his accelerated knowledge of the game. The young quarterback will get his first chance to flash that talent alongside fellow Michigan newcomers in running back Justice Haynes (Alabama transfer) and wide receiver Donaven McCulley (Indiana) in Week 1 before Underwood and the Wolverines stare down a much stiffer challenge against an experienced, Brent Venables-led Oklahoma defense on Sept. 6.
Elijah Griffin, DT, Georgia, No. 3 in 2025 ESPN 300
For the first time since 2021, the Bulldogs landed the state of Georgia’s top-ranked prospect in the 2025 cycle, and Griffin already appears poised to be a Day 1 contributor for the No. 5 Bulldogs.
Like many of the elite defensive line talents before him at Georgia, Griffin possesses top-end traits — speed, physicality and SEC-ready size at 6-foot-4, 310 pounds — that have had onlookers drawing comparisons to former Bulldog Jalen Carter throughout the spring and summer. Griffin’s maturity and ability to pick up the defense has also stood out as he vies for snaps along a revamped Georgia defensive line that returns multiple starters from a year ago. Whether or not he starts against Marshall on Saturday, Griffin is expected to play early and often in a significant role within coordinator Glenn Schumann’s defense this fall.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon, No. 4 in 2025 ESPN 300
Moore has been one of the nation’s most productive high school playmakers in recent seasons, and his elite speed and playmaking talent are expected to earn him early opportunities this fall as he steps into an unsettled Ducks wide receiver group.
Missing top 2024 pass catchers Tez Johnson (NFL), Traeshon Holden (NFL) and Evan Stewart (injury), No. 7 Oregon is screaming for fresh downfield producers in 2025. The Ducks have plenty of experienced options between Florida State transfer Malik Benson and returners Justius Lowe, Gary Bryant Jr. and Kyler Kasper, but none offer the brand of electricity Moore presents. One of ESPN’s highest-rated wide receiver prospects since 2006, Moore should be an asset for first-year starting quarterback Dante Moore as soon as Oregon takes the field against Montana State on Saturday.
Demetres Samuel Jr., DB/WR, Syracuse, No. 223 in 2025 ESPN 300
Samuel reclassified into the 2025 class to enter college a year early. At just 17 years old, the 6-1, 195-pound freshman is set to feature prominently for the Orange this fall starting with Syracuse’s Week 1 matchup with No. 24 Tennessee on Saturday in Atlanta.
A speedy tackler from Palm Bay, Florida, Samuel has legit two-way potential, and the Orange intends to make the most of it in 2025. Syracuse coach Fran Brown announced earlier this month that Samuel will start at cornerback against Tennessee while also taking snaps at wide receiver, where the Orange are replacing their top two pass catchers from a year ago. With Travis Hunter in the NFL, Samuel stands as one of the most intriguing two-way talents across college football.
Jayvan Boggs, WR, Florida State, No. 284 in 2025 ESPN 300
Boggs joins the Seminoles after hauling in 99 receptions for 2,133 yards and 24 touchdowns in a wildly productive senior season at Florida’s Cocoa High School last fall. Listed as a starter in Florida State’s Week 1 depth chart, he has an opportunity to pick up where he left off in 2025.
Boggs combines a thick build with sudden route running and knack for yards after the catch. Alongside transfers Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina), Duce Robinson (USC) and Squirrel White (Tennessee), he’s positioned to emerge as a reliable downfield option from the jump within a new group of Seminoles pass catchers around Boston College transfer quarterback Tommy Castellanos, starting with Florida State’s Week 1 meeting with No. 8 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). — Eli Lederman
Notable offseason quotes
“I depend on Depends. … I’m making a joke out of it, but it is real. It is real. It is real. If you see a port-a-potty on the sideline, it is real, I’m just telling you. You’re going to see one at practice, on the sideline [in games].” — Colorado coach Deion Sanders, joking about his cancer recovery.
“But since we’re in Vegas, it seems like the right time to say it, our theme for this team is double down.” — Oregon coach Dan Lanning, on expectations coming off last year’s undefeated regular season.
“We figured we would just adopt SEC scheduling philosophy, you know? Some people don’t like it. I’m more focused on those nine conference games. Not only do we want to play nine conference games, OK, and have the [revised] playoff format [with automatic qualifiers], we want to have play-in games to decide who plays in those playoffs.” — Indiana coach Curt Cignetti on criticism of the Hoosiers’ light nonconference schedule.
“The recent NCAA ruling to not punish players that weren’t involved is correct. However, this ruling also proves that the NCAA as an enforcement arm no longer exists.” — Former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer, on the sanctions against rival Michigan.
“They don’t have Nick Saban to save them. I just don’t see them stopping me.” — Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos to On3 in June about the opener vs. Alabama.
“I’m 21 so I can do shots at a bar.” — Texas quarterback Arch Manning, joking after being asked about how he has to carry himself in public.
“They can have their opinion. We’re going to handle all that on Aug. 30.” — Clemson DE T.J. Parker on the battle over the stadium nickname “Death Valley” between Clemson and LSU.
“I still have the [Catholics versus Convicts] shirt. I do. It’s well documented that’s as intense if not the most intense rivalry that at that time it felt like the national championship went through South Bend or Coral Gables. Intensity was high, physicality, the edge that game was played with was next level.” — Miami coach Mario Cristobal on the Notre Dame rivalry. Cristobal played in the game and will now coach in it as Miami opens vs the Irish.
“Be delusional … It means no cap on the jar, no limitations, dreaming big. With the College Football Playoff where it is, as Indiana showed last year, anybody can get there. If we’re delusional enough to know we can do that, we can get there … Take the cap off the jar. Limitless.” — Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck, speaking at Big Ten media days.
Sports
East Carolina-NC State and other under-the-radar rivalries really pack a punch
Published
15 hours agoon
August 28, 2025By
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Ryan McGeeAug 28, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com
- 2-time Sports Emmy winner
- 2010, 2014 NMPA Writer of the Year
Let’s start with a personal memory, shall we?
Saturday, Sept. 10, 1983. Night had fallen and traffic was moving slowly as our aircraft carrier Oldsmobile Delta 88 Royale was sitting in line attempting to leave Raleigh’s Carter-Finley Stadium. My mother had a white-knuckled grip on the polished wooden steering wheel. I was riding shotgun, dressed head-to-toe in North Carolina State red and white. My little brother was in the backseat, donned in East Carolina purple and gold. He loved the Pirates because our father was an alum and had pitched for the East Carolina Teachers College baseball team back in the day. But I loved the Wolfpack because we were living in Raleigh in the Jimmy Valvano era and, did I mention it was 1983?
ECU had just defeated State for the first time in six years and did so by stopping the Pack on fourth down deep in Pirates territory in the waning seconds, preserving a 22-16 victory in front of 57,700 fans, at the time the largest crowd to ever witness a college football game in the state of North Carolina.
My brother was very happy. I was not. Mom, flying solo because Dad was away officiating another game in another town, had to physically separate us as we walked through the gravel parking lot to the car. Now we all watched as no one was bothering to separate a pair of bourbon-soaked gentlemen throwing hands in that same parking lot right beside our car. They were also dressed in opposing colors. When the guy in red had enough, he got back into his car and power-locked the doors. So the guy in purple walked around behind the car, ripped the license plate off with his bare hands and threw it like a frisbee into the dark pine trees that lined the lot.
“Just so you know, that’s what you two looked like walking to the car,” Mom said to us, our preteen faces still flushed. “If you’re still doing that when you’re their age, don’t come home.”
My brother mouthed silently at me from the backseat: “Go Pirates.”
I responded in kind, perhaps even with a middle finger extended: “Go Pack.”
Looking at East Carolina-NC State this weekend and thinking of all the Down East NC houses divided. Ex. Here’s Dad pitching for ECU in the 1960s and me in my Wolfpack gear in the 1980s (holding a bass). pic.twitter.com/LRBKQEyySU
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) August 27, 2025
Army-Navy, the Iron Bowl, The Game, the Big Game and more Cups than you would find at a Bed Bath & Beyond going out of business sale. College football, far more any other sport, is built atop a foundation of rivalries. But while we as a helmeted nation tend to focus on the biggest brand-name showdowns — the ones that determine conference titles, steer national championship pushes and have long held down prime network time slots on late November weekends — they aren’t always the most fun or even the most furiously fought football fracases on the calendar.
That’s why my personal favorite rivalries are the ones that set fire to their particular corner of the map with a crazed college football intensity but are games that people who live outside that immediate area might not fully understand or appreciate.
The contests when towns, counties, particular pages of state atlases and individual homes are divided by laundry. When autumn Saturday evenings aren’t just a football game, but rather a fistfight at a family reunion. And who doesn’t want to watch that?
It’s Akron and Kent State, stars of the Bottom 10 Cinematic Universe, located only 10 miles apart, who have a snafu in the snow every November over the possession of a Wagon Wheel. It’s North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State, Bison vs. Jackrabbits, in a contest that almost always has huge FCS national title implications and also almost always ends with postgame finger-pointing that will last for the next 364 days. It’s basically the entire Sun Belt Conference, where divisions still exist, teams still ride buses to games, bad blood has flowed through reluctantly shared veins of the likes of Georgia Southern vs. App State and where soon-to-be member Louisiana Tech is resuming the Rivalry in Dixie against Southern Miss. Football feuds that reach back through years gone by in lower divisions and long-abandoned small college conferences.
Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan for the Victory Cannon. Kansas vs. Missouri, a rivalry that next weekend will be reinstated as the Border Showdown, formerly called the Border War, a title with roots back to an actual border war between the two territories. Montana vs. Montana State in the Brawl of the Wild. Even the big brand likes of Clemson vs. Georgia, stadiums only 80 miles apart, and the game we just watched in Ireland to open the 2025 season, Iowa State vs. Kansas State, aka Farmageddon.
Why do I so relish these raucous regional rivalries? Because as you are now aware, I grew up right in the middle of one — maybe the best example there is. East Carolina versus North Carolina State, who will meet for the 34th time Thursday at 7 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
Will the nation be riveted? No. But will my neighborhood of that nation be hotter than a bottle of Texas Pete? Oh, hell yes.
“I call them cookout games because if there is ever an argument at the family cookout, then it’s probably about a game like this one.” That’s how it was once explained to me by Ruffin McNeill, a Lumberton, North Carolina, native and former all-star ECU defender who became the coach at his alma mater in 2010 and led the Pirates to four bowls in six years before he was controversially dismissed. Now Ruff is a special assistant at … wait for it … NC State. “To me, it’s what makes college football the best sport in the world. When you look at your brother or your cousin and you say, ‘You know I love you, but for a few hours this weekend I’m not going to love you as much as I usually do.'”
That’s how a lot of North Carolina families will be rolling Thursday night, especially those who reside between the state capital and the Outer Banks, what we call Down East. From Nags Head to New Bern and Scotland Neck to Smithfield, one giant barrel of red and white and purple and gold, all swirled together in the same living room. And man, do those colors clash.
“So, I’m from Texas, right? We have a lot of really intense rivalries that mean a lot inside the state of Texas but that people outside of Texas don’t really understand,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said earlier this year. He was East Carolina’s offensive coordinator for five years, 2010 to 2014, coaching under McNeill. “When NC State came to our place in 2010, I remember in pregame, it was already so tense. I said, ‘Oh man, this is how this is?’ Ruff said, ‘Yes, it is. Now imagine what it’s going to be like when we go there. Buckle up.'”
BACK TO THE memory banks.
Jan. 1, 1992. The final Peach Bowl was played in Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. It was a drizzly day, but that didn’t prevent nearly 60,000 people from attending the last college football game played at the home of the Braves, soon to be replaced by the Georgia Dome. Both ECU and NC State were in the Top 25. After nearly two decades of annual contests, they hadn’t played since 1987. Why? Because after another win in Raleigh, Pirates fans stormed NC State’s home field and pillaged the goalposts. By this time Valvano was NCSU’s athletic director and, angered by the damage done to his football stadium, he immediately discontinued the series. So, when it came time for the Peach Bowl to send out its invites, the powers-that-be wisely made phone calls to two schools located only 80 miles apart and only a day’s drive down I-85 to their stadium.
There, in the stands, sitting with my family and surrounded by ECU fans, I began openly gloating about State’s imminent victory. After all, the Pack led by 17 points with less than nine minutes remaining. It was over, right? Wrong. Pirates quarterback Jeff Blake, amid chants of “We … believe!” and a sea of foam yellow buccaneer swords, orchestrated a comeback that made him not merely an East Carolina football legend, but the forever Pirates football deity.
I was so bitter about that day for so long that it pained me the first time I finally interviewed Blake, and he was such a genuinely nice guy.
“Everywhere I go, it’s about the ’92 Peach Bowl,” he said to me for a 2014 story about bowl games. Blake threw for more than 21,000 yards over 14 NFL seasons and is now director of the IMG QB Academy in Florida. “If I had won a Super Bowl ring, it would still be second in [Greenville, NC] to people wanting to see my Peach Bowl watch. At a big school, those moments might not mean so much. For the rest of us, those are the moments.”
ECU vs. NCSU has provided so many of those moments.
That game that Lincoln Riley spoke of in 2010 began with a 21-0 ECU lead in the first quarter, but Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson led a comeback of his own, sending the game into OT. But in that extra frame, Wilson was intercepted to secure the victory for the Pirates. It was a revenge game for their last meeting two years earlier, when it was NC State who celebrated at the end of the series’ first-ever overtime contest.
In 2022, ECU had a chance to tie and win the game late but missed a PAT and field goal as time expired, preserving NCSU’s 1-point win. And, oh yeah, there’s their last meeting, only eight months ago in the Military Bowl, where a sellout crowd in Annapolis got a red-hot game and a bloody ref as the result of a fight at the end of the game, à la those drunk dudes in the parking lot in ’83.
Speaking of, I failed to mention this when I shared that story, but those guys totally knew each other. They looked similar. Had the same nose. One even called the other by name. So, it should come as no surprise that the prize awarded for winning this game is directly based on that kind of kinship. The Victory Barrel, which wasn’t introduced until 2007 but has been retroactively marked to represent every result since the series began in 1970, was rolled out with a backstory about two ultracompetitive brothers who grew up on an Eastern North Carolina farm but attended the two different schools. Eventually, they donated the pork barrel that they had once kept in a barn, whittled with the results of their own hometown competitions, for the schools to keep track of their football games.
“Those games are the ones where you look at the other guy and you know that guy, or you at least recognize that guy, because that guy either lives in your neighborhood, or hell, he might be your brother,” explained Jerry Kill when asked about the intensity of overlooked rivalries. Now he’s a special consultant at Vanderbilt. Prior to that, he was the coach at New Mexico State, one half of the Rio Grande Rivalry versus New Mexico, aka the Game When The Diego Pavia Logo Urination Video (ahem) Leaked, which holds its115th edition later this season. “If you like western movies, you know how it works. This town ain’t big enough for the both of us.”
North Carolina has never been big enough for all its college football teams. Tobacco Road has long belonged to what used to be called the Big Four. Beginning at the western edge of the middle region of the state, aka the Piedmont, with Wake Forest, then moving east into the Triangle, with Duke and UNC in the middle and NC State on the eastern flank. But as Appalachian State began to gather steam, it challenged from the mountains after East Carolina did the same from the coast. Both have always coveted the power conference ACC membership of the Big Four, but both have also proudly owned the little brother chip on their shoulder pads. All while Wake and State have done the same, as they’ve had to watch the nation become obsessed with the Blue Devils and Tar Heels during hoops season.
NC State head coach Dave Doeren, who made headlines this summer at ACC media days when asked about ECU and replied, “I want to beat the s— out of that team,” has never shied away from the perceived “haves vs. have-nots” syndrome when it comes to UNC. See: When he also made headlines in 2022 saying, as paraphrased by a TV crew, that NC State is blue collar and UNC is elitist. On the flipside, ECU coach Blake Harrell recently suggested that his entire roster was making less NIL money than Pack QB CJ Bailey.
“Whatever you need to motivate yourself, you do it,” Torry Holt said, laughing, prior to his induction into the North Carolina Sports Hall of Fame in 2022. The former NC State All-America wide receiver grew up in Gibsonville, North Carolina, just off Tobacco Road. He even picked tobacco as a kid. He also went 1-1 versus East Carolina during his four years with the Pack, highlighted by a backbreaking 68-yard TD catch to open the second half in Raleigh in 1997 that paved the way to a 37-24 win. “The important thing for me is that the last time I played them, we won. We lost the first one. But you don’t want to lose the last one. That was the last time I played them and the last time I will ever play them.”
He laughed again. “So … scoreboard.”
ONE MORE FROM the memory bank. It’s all you need to know about ECU vs. NCSU, and it easily applies to all those other underappreciated pigskin passion plays throughout this great college football nation.
It was spring 1997 and I was a young feature producer for ESPN. My primary beat was NASCAR, and I was covering a race at my hometown Rockingham Speedway. That’s when the governor of North Governor, Jim Hunt, who was an NC State graduate and former NCSU student body president, wandered into the media center during a rain delay, making small talk. He said to us, “You guys are with ESPN? Well, I have a story for you. Our state legislature is introducing a bill to try and mandate that East Carolina plays State every year. Y’all ever been to one of those games?”
I told him that, yes, I had, growing up in Raleigh in the 1980s. My camera operator said he had been a Wolfpack athlete, a swimmer. What we know now is that the bill never passed, but it did lead to more frequent Tobacco Road bookings for the Pirates.
That ’97 day in rainy Rockingham, Hunt sighed. “If that bill passes, then y’all know what I’m going to have to do?”
We looked at the governor, quizzically. He winked. Then he joked. At least I think it was a joke.
“We’re going to need to hire a lot more state troopers for Down East. Or wrestling referees.”
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