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You can’t win a fantasy baseball championship without taking some chances.

Whether it’s a player’s injury history, inexperience, year-over-year inconsistency or a skill set or advanced metrics that don’t match his raw statistics, many factors can attract us to certain players, as well as scare us away from them entirely. Deciphering these, in order to make our best estimates on their seasonal expectations, can be critical to our draft preparation. After all, known commodities can provide a strong base from which to build our fantasy teams, but it’s the players with the widest ranges of potential outcomes who can provide us the most profit potential.

Fortunately, this column is to help you on this risk/reward research quest. Listed below are 10 of the players I see as having some of the widest ranges of potential 2023 outcomes. What might be in store for each? Let’s take a look.

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers

The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has averaged 21 quality starts, a 2.05 ERA and 291 strikeouts per 162 team games while on the active roster. In the history of baseball, only six pitchers have had a season in which they met or exceeded all three of those numbers, and not one of them had a WHIP as low as deGrom’s 0.73 in his 162-game, prorated time span.

The bad: He has been on the active roster for only 51% of his team’s games during that time.

Take the chance? Well, deGrom’s 2023 spring training has followed this same peaks-and-valleys pattern, as he experienced side soreness in its opening days then was absolutely brilliant in his first Cactus League appearance this past Sunday. This seems an inescapable pattern, and there’s always the chance the forearm issues he battled throughout 2021 might resurface. He is so good when healthy, though, that I default to “yes, absolutely.” He also has reasonable ADPs of 27th overall in National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues over the past 10 days and 22nd overall in ESPN standard points-based leagues.

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has slugged .576 while averaging 51 home runs, 93 RBIs and 110 runs scored per 162 games played. Aaron Judge (2017, 2022) and Giancarlo Stanton (2017) are the only players who have met or exceeded all of those thresholds in any of the past 15 seasons.

The bad: He has played in exactly 50% of Twins games over that time.

Take the chance? No, but that’s also because it’s tough to trust a player whose team has kept him in metaphorical bubble wrap all spring, and presumably will limit him to DH duty to begin the regular season (while also probably hampering his freedom on the base paths). Buxton’s answer here hinges entirely on his asking price in your specific league, as I have shares in some places where it was reasonable. One sign that it generally won’t be reasonable is that he’s going roughly 40 spots earlier than my ranking in ESPN standard points-based leagues.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

The good: Through his four-year, big league career to date, he has batted .292/.369/.596 while averaging 48 home runs, 116 RBIs, 31 stolen bases and 125 runs scored per 162 games played. The only player in history to reach all of those thresholds in a single season was Larry Walker (1997), who did it as a member of the Colorado Rockies.

The bad: Tatis has played in exactly 50% of Padres games since the date of his big league debut in 2019.

Take the chance? He wouldn’t even be on here if not for his 80-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy, a penalty that ended his 2022 before it began, will cost him an additional 20 games at the start of 2023, and has cast some doubt among fantasy managers about the legitimacy of his above numbers. Nevertheless, Tatis is a dynamic talent — a five-category standout — who has looked outstanding in recent spring action. He has that deGrom-esque, so-good-when-healthy skill set that warrants an easy “yes.”

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

The good: Statcast had Cruz with a 15.5% barrel rate and 29.9 feet-per-second sprint speed last season, which placed him in the 96th and 98th percentiles across the league. He joined Buxton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with at least as many batted balls in play last season who also finished in the 90th percentile or better in both departments.

The bad: His 35.8% miss rate on swings ranked in the fifth percentile and 35.1% strikeout rate ranked in the second percentile among players who came to the plate at least as many times as he did in 2021-22 combined.

Take the chance? Yes! Cruz might be the least experienced name on this list, and his fantasy managers must remember to be patient through his cold spells, such as his 1-for-14, six-strikeout stretch since I published that linked sleepers column. The only reason to hesitate is the asking price, currently a generous 59th overall in NFBC and 88th overall in ESPN points-based leagues, both of which are a tad high for my tastes. Still, Cruz is one of the very few players in the game with the natural skills to join the 30/30 club, one that has added only five new members over the past 10 seasons after there were 49 instances of a 30/30 campaign in the previous 26 years.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees

The good: He’s the king of Statcast hard contact, as in the system’s eight seasons, his 93.9 mph average exit velocity ranks second best, his 17.6% barrel rate ranks fifth best and his 50.9% hard-hit rate ranks fifth best. Stanton has averaged 40 home runs per 162 games played in his five years with the Yankees.

The bad: He has made six trips to the injured list across the past four seasons alone, totaling 223 missed Yankees games.

Take the chance? The Yankees’ lack of outfield depth, coupled with an overcrowded infield that demands the flexibility of the DH role, probably will press Stanton into a repeat (or more) of his 38 outfield appearances in 2022. That will put him at increased risk of future IL stints, and then there’s that career-worst .211 batting average with which to contend. He’ll be the cheapest of these first five, but not enough so to be worth the chance.

Other risk/reward quick takes

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: An oblique strain that threatens to sideline him into May is just the latest of a litany of injuries, and bear in mind that he hasn’t exceeded 111⅔ innings in any of his past five seasons. I’m not a big believer in players fitting that description who are beginning the new season hurt, and Glasnow’s No. 153 overall NFBC ADP represents a pretty hefty price tag.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: A 2021 breakthrough performer, he struggled with injuries on three separate occasions last season, and yet, he’s still going within the top 100 overall in NFBC leagues. O’Neill is one of the more underrated speedsters in the game, with exceptional power metrics in 2021, but he’s a player who would be much more attractive a pick if he slid two to three rounds beyond his current ADP.

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: He’s having a stellar spring training, will serve as the cleanup man behind a loaded top three of the Angels’ lineup and, perhaps most importantly, is going outside the top 180 overall picks in both roto and points-based leagues. Rendon, now 32 years old, is at a stage of his career when injuries are a mounting concern, but he’s looking like a good rebound candidate for the price.

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox: My biggest concern with him is his precipitous drop in Statcast sprint speed, which explains his zero stolen bases from last June 13 forward. Robert needs to recapture some of those lost steals, but what appeals to me are his underrated contact metrics. He’s the player on this list for whom I could most go in either direction, but his current ADP is leaning slightly too generous.

Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: He has had two good spring outings and one mediocre one, with the key takeaway that he’s seemingly healthy and throwing with decent velocity. The level of caution with which the Red Sox treated him last season casts concerns that he might not be afforded more than 140 innings in 2023, but for the current price — 122nd overall in NFBC and 134th in ESPN points-based leagues — he looks like a potentially profitable pitcher.

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Ex-Mizzou QB Pyne commits to Bowling Green

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Ex-Mizzou QB Pyne commits to Bowling Green

Former Missouri quarterback Drew Pyne is headed for his fourth Division I school; he told ESPN that he has committed to Bowling Green.

Pyne is 9-3 as a starter over his three previous stops. He started his career at Notre Dame (2020-22) then transferred to Arizona State (2023) before playing at Missouri last year. He returned to Notre Dame for a semester after ASU in order to graduate from the school.

Pyne took a visit over the weekend to Bowling Green and said he has been impressed with new coach Eddie George and the spread offense run by new offensive coordinator Travis Partridge.

“The opportunity to go play for Eddie George, a returning offensive line that’s strong and experienced,” Pyne said. “And a team that’s very good, played in three straight bowl games and can compete for a championship.”

The 24-year-old has two seasons of eligibility remaining. There should be a strong opportunity for him to earn the starting job at Bowling Green, as quarterback Justin Lamson left for Montana State soon after coach Scot Loeffler’s departure for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Pyne said he’s excited about Bowling Green’s style of offense. George and Partridge had a productive spread style coaching at Tennessee State last year. Tennessee State starting quarterback Draylen Ellis finished in the top 15 in the FCS in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Pyne noted that Bowling Green played both Penn State and Texas A&M to one-score games last year on its way to a 7-6 season.

“The sell was the team is very gritty, works hard and wants to win games,” he said.

Pyne can’t jump into spring ball, as he already played in the spring at Missouri. He’ll enroll on May 18.

Pyne went 8-2 as a starter at Notre Dame, arriving there as an ESPN 300 recruit. He went to ASU for a year, where he emerged as the favorite to start in camp, but his season got derailed by injuries. He started just one game there, a loss to USC.

Pyne won his lone start at Missouri, throwing the game-tying touchdown pass to Theo Wease Jr. in the final two minutes. Pyne went 14-for-27 for 143 yards and three touchdowns in that game.

When asked what he has learned over his journey, Pyne said: “To persevere and never give up. I’ve never been scared of competition. I’ve always wanted to play ball and lead guys. What I’ve learned is that I love being able to get a group of guys and lead them.”

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DeBoer’s ‘fingerprints are on everything’ in Year 2

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DeBoer's 'fingerprints are on everything' in Year 2

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — More than a year after Kalen DeBoer replaced perhaps the greatest coach in college football history, his Alabama players don’t necessarily sense that he’s a different person.

But they sense a subtle difference as the second spring practice under DeBoer winds down this week.

“Coach DeBoer had his battles last year, replacing a legend like Coach [Nick] Saban in the middle of the transfer portal, and it was hard to implement everything the way he wanted,” said linebacker Deontae Lawson, a returning captain.

“It was kind of hard for him to come in and be the bad cop or whatever last year. He’s still laid back and still wants the players to lead, but his fingerprints are on everything now — and he’s made it known that you better be locked in.”

DeBoer flashed an easy smile when told of Lawson’s “bad cop” analogy.

“It was more that we were in retention mode,” DeBoer told ESPN on Monday. “I wouldn’t say we slacked off on any of the things that would be the standard of what we need to do and how you need to operate.

“But I do think there’s another level of an edge, a harder edge.”

The Crimson Tide missed the College Football Playoff in DeBoer’s first season. They finished 9-4 and were plagued with the type of inconsistency that isn’t uncommon when a coach takes over such a high-profile program. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt for the first time in 40 years, lost to rival Tennessee and lost to Michigan in a bowl game, but beat Georgia and LSU.

The most crushing blow for Alabama came in the next-to-last week of the regular season when the Crimson Tide were still in position to make the playoff. They went on the road and were blown out 24-3 by an Oklahoma team that was 5-5 and 1-5 in the conference.

“That’s not the standard here, and we all know it,” Lawson said. “But you go back and look at the way Coach DeBoer handled it. He wasn’t pointing the finger at anybody else. He took it all on himself, and I think what you see now is everybody has bought in. We’re one.”

DeBoer said this season, and the way he has evolved, aren’t unlike his second season at other coaching stops such as Washington and Fresno State.

“Your relationships are deeper,” DeBoer said. “You establish that harder edge because of the understanding of what we need to do to accomplish it, and now we have the experiences for the most part together, the staff and players.

“We’re more comfortable now calling each other out because our relationships are stronger, and we know that we all want the same thing. I feel like now we’re closer to having the alignment between staff and players and having the right people here. Everyone has an appreciation for what each other brings to the table.”

One of the things DeBoer did this offseason was bring back one of his most trusted colleagues, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who was with the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks last season. They first coached together in 2007 at Sioux Falls. Grubb was DeBoer’s OC on the 2023 Washington team that lost in the national championship game.

As it happens, Saban, prior to his final season in 2023, tried to hire Grubb as his OC, but the coordinator elected to stay at Washington.

Two of the qualities Grubb hopes to bring to Alabama’s program are consistency and strength.

“You don’t play into the good too much and force yourself through the tough parts,” Grubb said. “Kalen is the same way, keeping it calm when it needs to be calm and being really, really strong when you’ve got to be strong.”

Receiver Germie Bernard, who played under DeBoer and Grubb when they were together at Washington before transferring to Alabama, said they always had answers for everything, no matter what the opposing defense threw at the Huskies.

“And really it’s the belief they instilled in you as a player and the way they played off each other, adding things, tweaking things, playing to what we did best,” Bernard said.

One of the big decisions that still needs to be made on offense won’t be finalized until later this summer. Ty Simpson, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are competing for the starting quarterback job.

“I think we’ve got three really, really good quarterbacks, and I mean that,” Grubb said. “I don’t think anybody has separated. They’re all playing good, but they’re not playing great yet. You’re looking for the guy that’s going to be consistent, that can show up the same and make the same plays all the time.”

In an ideal world, Grubb would like to know who his quarterback is heading into the summer.

“But I wasn’t expecting that either. I wasn’t going into this thinking, ‘Oh, I bet by practice 11 this will be done,'” Grubb said. “I didn’t think that at all, and I didn’t think that because I thought all three of them were good players.”

Grubb said that the staff has charted every throw this spring and that Mack (162 reps) and Simpson (158 reps) have received most of the work in team drills.

At Washington, the coaching staff didn’t name a starter until Week 2 of preseason camp when Michael Penix Jr., a transfer from Indiana, beat out incumbent Dylan Morris.

“That was a little bit different than our situation here,” Grubb said. “Mike had started a lot of games. Dylan had started games. We had two guys that had Power 5 starting experience. So, yes, you would have loved for this guy to have grabbed it and run with it, but we’re just not there yet.”

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Dempsey, former NCAA president, dies at age 92

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Dempsey, former NCAA president, dies at age 92

SAN DIEGO — Cedric Dempsey, the former NCAA president who helped turn Arizona into a national power as athletic director before leading the national organization through key years of transition and growth, died Saturday in San Diego, the NCAA said. He was 92.

Dempsey was revered as an administrator on campus. His nine-year tenure as the NCAA’s leader included moving its headquarters and significant fiscal growth for the organization, including landmark television deals worth billions.

“Ced was instrumental in shaping the NCAA as it moved into the new century, overseeing a restructuring of the organization, and strengthening the foundation of college sports for years that followed his tenure,” current NCAA president Charlie Baker said in a statement released by the organization.

“His impact on the lives of student-athletes and administrators across the nation will be felt for years to come,” Baker said.

Dempsey oversaw the organization’s move from the Kansas City suburbs to Indianapolis in 1999 and helped reimagine how the governing body could work best in the 21st Century.

His most enduring legacy may be the role he played in creating television deals with ESPN and CBS that brought in $6.2 billion over an 11-year span.

Dempsey charmed his way through it all with a smile and wit that was lauded throughout the headquarters and the college sports world.

“Twenty-one years ago, Cedric painted a picture for me that I could one day be an athletic director,” current Arizona athletic director Desireé Reed-Francois said in a statement. “His guidance helped me see a calling I never knew could be possible. I am forever grateful for the impact he had on the trajectory of my career and on my life as a whole. He will be deeply missed by our family and by everyone in the University of Arizona community.”

Reed-Francois first met Dempsey when she was serving as an associate athletic director for Compliance and as the Senior Woman Administrator at Fresno State.

Dempsey’s hires in Tucson included coaches such as Lute Olson and Dick Tomey, who became iconic figures for Wildcats fans. During his 11-year tenure, Arizona State teams won five national team championships, 39 individual NCAA titles and 17 Pac-10 crowns.

He also served as the men’s basketball selection committee chairman in 1988-89.

Dempsey grew up in Equality, Illinois, and went on to play football, basketball and baseball at Albion College in Michigan. From 1959-62, he served as the men’s basketball and cross country coach at his alma mater before stepping back in 1963 to become an assistant basketball coach.

In 1965, he started a 46-year career in administration by becoming an associate athletic director also at Albion. He left there to be the athletic director at Pacific in California, before stints at San Diego State and Houston before moving to Arizona in 1983.

Dempsey left Arizona in 1994 to become the sixth executive director/president in NCAA history, and it was there he became a national figure.

“I think the NCAA is where it is today because of Ced,” former NCAA executive committee chairman Bob Lawless said when Dempsey announced he was retiring in January 2002. “He has been a real treasure for the NCAA.”

He also served as commissioner of the All-American Football League from 2007-10 and battled cancer three times. Dempsey is a member of multiple Halls of Fame and is survived by his wife, June, and two children.

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