
Fantasy baseball: Should you take the plunge with these risky players?
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2 years agoon
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Tristan H. Cockcroft
You can’t win a fantasy baseball championship without taking some chances.
Whether it’s a player’s injury history, inexperience, year-over-year inconsistency or a skill set or advanced metrics that don’t match his raw statistics, many factors can attract us to certain players, as well as scare us away from them entirely. Deciphering these, in order to make our best estimates on their seasonal expectations, can be critical to our draft preparation. After all, known commodities can provide a strong base from which to build our fantasy teams, but it’s the players with the widest ranges of potential outcomes who can provide us the most profit potential.
Fortunately, this column is to help you on this risk/reward research quest. Listed below are 10 of the players I see as having some of the widest ranges of potential 2023 outcomes. What might be in store for each? Let’s take a look.
Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has averaged 21 quality starts, a 2.05 ERA and 291 strikeouts per 162 team games while on the active roster. In the history of baseball, only six pitchers have had a season in which they met or exceeded all three of those numbers, and not one of them had a WHIP as low as deGrom’s 0.73 in his 162-game, prorated time span.
The bad: He has been on the active roster for only 51% of his team’s games during that time.
Take the chance? Well, deGrom’s 2023 spring training has followed this same peaks-and-valleys pattern, as he experienced side soreness in its opening days then was absolutely brilliant in his first Cactus League appearance this past Sunday. This seems an inescapable pattern, and there’s always the chance the forearm issues he battled throughout 2021 might resurface. He is so good when healthy, though, that I default to “yes, absolutely.” He also has reasonable ADPs of 27th overall in National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues over the past 10 days and 22nd overall in ESPN standard points-based leagues.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has slugged .576 while averaging 51 home runs, 93 RBIs and 110 runs scored per 162 games played. Aaron Judge (2017, 2022) and Giancarlo Stanton (2017) are the only players who have met or exceeded all of those thresholds in any of the past 15 seasons.
The bad: He has played in exactly 50% of Twins games over that time.
Take the chance? No, but that’s also because it’s tough to trust a player whose team has kept him in metaphorical bubble wrap all spring, and presumably will limit him to DH duty to begin the regular season (while also probably hampering his freedom on the base paths). Buxton’s answer here hinges entirely on his asking price in your specific league, as I have shares in some places where it was reasonable. One sign that it generally won’t be reasonable is that he’s going roughly 40 spots earlier than my ranking in ESPN standard points-based leagues.
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
The good: Through his four-year, big league career to date, he has batted .292/.369/.596 while averaging 48 home runs, 116 RBIs, 31 stolen bases and 125 runs scored per 162 games played. The only player in history to reach all of those thresholds in a single season was Larry Walker (1997), who did it as a member of the Colorado Rockies.
The bad: Tatis has played in exactly 50% of Padres games since the date of his big league debut in 2019.
Take the chance? He wouldn’t even be on here if not for his 80-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy, a penalty that ended his 2022 before it began, will cost him an additional 20 games at the start of 2023, and has cast some doubt among fantasy managers about the legitimacy of his above numbers. Nevertheless, Tatis is a dynamic talent — a five-category standout — who has looked outstanding in recent spring action. He has that deGrom-esque, so-good-when-healthy skill set that warrants an easy “yes.”
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
The good: Statcast had Cruz with a 15.5% barrel rate and 29.9 feet-per-second sprint speed last season, which placed him in the 96th and 98th percentiles across the league. He joined Buxton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with at least as many batted balls in play last season who also finished in the 90th percentile or better in both departments.
The bad: His 35.8% miss rate on swings ranked in the fifth percentile and 35.1% strikeout rate ranked in the second percentile among players who came to the plate at least as many times as he did in 2021-22 combined.
Take the chance? Yes! Cruz might be the least experienced name on this list, and his fantasy managers must remember to be patient through his cold spells, such as his 1-for-14, six-strikeout stretch since I published that linked sleepers column. The only reason to hesitate is the asking price, currently a generous 59th overall in NFBC and 88th overall in ESPN points-based leagues, both of which are a tad high for my tastes. Still, Cruz is one of the very few players in the game with the natural skills to join the 30/30 club, one that has added only five new members over the past 10 seasons after there were 49 instances of a 30/30 campaign in the previous 26 years.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees
The good: He’s the king of Statcast hard contact, as in the system’s eight seasons, his 93.9 mph average exit velocity ranks second best, his 17.6% barrel rate ranks fifth best and his 50.9% hard-hit rate ranks fifth best. Stanton has averaged 40 home runs per 162 games played in his five years with the Yankees.
The bad: He has made six trips to the injured list across the past four seasons alone, totaling 223 missed Yankees games.
Take the chance? The Yankees’ lack of outfield depth, coupled with an overcrowded infield that demands the flexibility of the DH role, probably will press Stanton into a repeat (or more) of his 38 outfield appearances in 2022. That will put him at increased risk of future IL stints, and then there’s that career-worst .211 batting average with which to contend. He’ll be the cheapest of these first five, but not enough so to be worth the chance.
Other risk/reward quick takes
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: An oblique strain that threatens to sideline him into May is just the latest of a litany of injuries, and bear in mind that he hasn’t exceeded 111⅔ innings in any of his past five seasons. I’m not a big believer in players fitting that description who are beginning the new season hurt, and Glasnow’s No. 153 overall NFBC ADP represents a pretty hefty price tag.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: A 2021 breakthrough performer, he struggled with injuries on three separate occasions last season, and yet, he’s still going within the top 100 overall in NFBC leagues. O’Neill is one of the more underrated speedsters in the game, with exceptional power metrics in 2021, but he’s a player who would be much more attractive a pick if he slid two to three rounds beyond his current ADP.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: He’s having a stellar spring training, will serve as the cleanup man behind a loaded top three of the Angels’ lineup and, perhaps most importantly, is going outside the top 180 overall picks in both roto and points-based leagues. Rendon, now 32 years old, is at a stage of his career when injuries are a mounting concern, but he’s looking like a good rebound candidate for the price.
Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox: My biggest concern with him is his precipitous drop in Statcast sprint speed, which explains his zero stolen bases from last June 13 forward. Robert needs to recapture some of those lost steals, but what appeals to me are his underrated contact metrics. He’s the player on this list for whom I could most go in either direction, but his current ADP is leaning slightly too generous.
Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: He has had two good spring outings and one mediocre one, with the key takeaway that he’s seemingly healthy and throwing with decent velocity. The level of caution with which the Red Sox treated him last season casts concerns that he might not be afforded more than 140 innings in 2023, but for the current price — 122nd overall in NFBC and 134th in ESPN points-based leagues — he looks like a potentially profitable pitcher.
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Sources: ACC closing in on new schedule format
Published
2 hours agoon
September 19, 2025By
admin
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Andrea Adelson
CloseAndrea Adelson
ESPN Senior Writer
- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
-
David Hale
CloseDavid Hale
ESPN Staff Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
Sep 18, 2025, 10:41 PM ET
The ACC is closing in on a change to its scheduling format that will require all league teams to play at least 10 games against Power Four competition, though the number of intra-conference games played — eight or nine — remains a sticking point, according to multiple sources.
Athletics directors are scheduled to meet Monday in Charlotte to discuss the details of what will either be a move to a nine-game conference slate with one additional Power Four game required out of conference or an “8+2” model that would provide more flexibility to schools who already have an annual non-conference rival.
“The ACC committing to go to 10 Power Four games is a big step forward,” Clemson athletics director Graham Neff said. “It’s indicative of where college football is and leans into emphasizing the importance of strength of schedule and more Power Four matchups.”
Neff is among the handful of ADs concerned that a nine-game conference slate would be problematic in limiting schools’ ability to play marquee non-conference games, as Clemson did this season against LSU in Week 1.
The Tigers play South Carolina annually and, beginning in 2027, will also have a yearly game against Notre Dame.
A straw poll of 13 of the ACC’s 17 athletics directors showed nine supported or were amenable to the nine-game slate, while Clemson and Florida State are among the others with concerns about the impact on non-conference scheduling.
The SEC announced last month it would move from an eight-game to a nine-game conference slate — a decision that has spurred the ACC’s interest in adjusting its scheduling model, too.
Multiple sources said ACC commissioner Jim Phillips wants to see the conference play nine league games annually plus require each school to schedule one out-of-conference game against another Power Four school, essentially matching the SEC’s new strategy. ACC schools are already supposed to have at least one Power Four non-conference game each year, but that rule has not been enforced and several programs have avoided playing a more difficult schedule. Sources told ESPN that the current conversations have reached a consensus that 10 Power Four games must be an enforced minimum moving forward.
One administrator said it felt inevitable the league was going to go to nine league games. Duke coach Manny Diaz agreed.
“I think it’d be awfully strange to be the only conference not at nine conference games,” Diaz said. “Usually when you’re the only one doing something, it’s either really good or really bad. It just feels like you’d want continuity in what everybody does in college sports.”
The SEC’s move coincided with the College Football Playoff committee’s revised guidelines that emphasize strength of opponent. SEC schools are also expected to see an increase in revenue from its TV partner, ESPN, for adding the additional conference game.
ACC ADs were briefed on the various plans during a call Wednesday, though several said there remains little understanding of how potential changes would be accepted by ESPN or considered among the College Football Playoff committee. Indeed, as Radakovich noted, the ideal formula for a 12-team playoff vs. an expanded playoff might not be the same, but the ACC will need to decide its scheduling fate before knowing what the future playoff might look like.
“Hopefully Jim [Phillips] will give us some insight into that when we get together Monday, and help set the table that, hey, nine is going to be really important for us to keep a very good seat at the table as it relates to the other CFP commissioners and the Power 4 conferences,” Miami athletics director Dan Radakovich said. “It all depends on how big the CFP gets. That’s another driving factor we won’t know. We’re going to have to make this decision without that knowledge and try to project it the best way we can.”
No additional revenues are expected to come from ESPN if a change is made. The ACC also changed its revenue-distribution model starting in 2025, awarding a higher percentage of revenue to schools based on TV ratings.
“It’s important we continue to be strategic in providing value to our media partner, ESPN,” Neff said. “And with how the ACC has adapted our financial distribution model, that has direct school revenue implications unlike any other conference.”
The ACC has wrestled with how many league games it should play for more than a decade. In 2012, the ACC agreed to play nine league games, but decided to stay at eight after adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh and coming to a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame the following year. The intra-state nonconference rivalry games that Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville play annually against their SEC rivals have always been a sticking point in any of these discussions.
For those four specific teams, their rivalry games coupled with a nine-game conference slate would provide a full inventory of 10 Power Four matchups — with more in years in which those schools play Notre Dame as part of the league’s agreement that requires five games per year against the Irish. That leaves little room for marquee matchups like Clemson-LSU or Florida State-Alabama, two games that did monster ratings in Week 1 of this season, each drawing more than 10 million viewers.
But future marquee non-conference matchups like those could disappear once the ACC moves to a nine-game conference slate, Neff said, which could diminish the overall product and inhibit revenue opportunities, given the ACC’s new distribution model that provides more money to schools with better TV ratings.
Radakovich noted that games like this week’s showdown with Florida are unlikely to be played moving forward due to the constraints of a larger conference schedule, but he will continue to have conversations with Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin.
“It’s going to be a real tough sell because Florida has their nine SEC games and their rivalry game with FSU,” Radakovich said. “Scott and I will have some chats to see if it can happen but it’s going to be some tough sledding.”
Louisville athletics director Josh Heird said his school would still schedule top non-conference competition, even if that means an 11th Power Four game. The Cardinals currently have future games scheduled against Georgia in 2026 and 2027 and Texas A&M in 2028 and 2029.
“Play good teams,” Heird said. “We’ll play Kentucky every year, and we’ll have Notre Dame every once in a while. And we absolutely want to still play the home-and-homes with Georgia and Texas A&M. I think the kids want to play those games, too.”
Several ADs expressed concern, however, that series like Louisville’s with Georgia and Texas A&M would disappear regardless, as the SEC bows out of such matchups now that its teams will play nine league games. Others suggested the SEC and Big Ten — the two leagues with the most financial clout — could work together for non-conference scheduling, leaving the ACC and Big 12 with few options to fill out their schedules, particularly if the ACC has two Power Four non-conference games required.
“You’re not guaranteed 10,” one AD in favor of a 9+1 model said. “That’s the issue. Who’s to say the other Power four leagues want to schedule ACC schools?”
One alternative could be for ACC teams to schedule non-conference games against each other, as NC State and Virginia did in Week 2. Several ADs expressed skepticism about that plan, however, suggesting it would be extremely confusing for fans to understand which ACC vs. ACC matchups counted in the league standing and which did not.
Regardless, the ACC will have to figure out a way around a more basic problem of math. With 17 football-playing members, there’s no way for all schools to play nine conference games.
One initial plan involved games vs. Notre Dame — an ACC member in all sports except football — to count as conference games. Multiple ADs told ESPN that plan has been shelved for the time being, likely in favor of an imbalanced model in which at least one team will play just eight conference games while the rest play nine.
Monday’s meetings in Charlotte are expected to move the league closer to a final decision, but several sources said they did not expect an official vote to happen for a few weeks and were similarly dubious a change would take effect for the 2026 season.
“Let’s look to try to set our course,” Radakovich said. “The discussions will happen Monday but decisions will hopefully happen shortly thereafter. Hopefully we’ll come out of that with a consensus that leads the ACC to a final conclusion.”
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Witness in 2006 Miami murder case found alive
Published
5 hours agoon
September 19, 2025By
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Florida prosecutors have repeatedly told a court that a key witness in their murder case against a former Miami Hurricanes football player accused in the 2006 killing of teammate Bryan Pata was dead.
However, with the long-delayed murder trial of Rashaun Jones only weeks from its scheduled start in Miami, ESPN reporters knocked on an apartment door in Louisville, Kentucky, recently and found the witness, Paul Conner, alive.
Conner told ESPN that he wasn’t aware anyone from Miami was looking for him and said he rarely leaves his apartment.
Prosecutors told Florida 11th Circuit Court Judge Cristina Miranda as recently as July that Conner was dead. A spokesperson for the state attorney’s office, Ed Griffith, told ESPN on Thursday that police relied on a public database that “seemed to indicate” Conner was deceased and that police asked officers in Louisville to knock on Conner’s door. He offered no documents of such a visit nor details of when an officer visited or what happened.
Griffith also pressed a reporter for the address ESPN visited — the same address that was listed on the database report Griffith cited. The lead detective in the case, Juan Segovia, also texted an ESPN reporter asking for Conner’s contact information.
It’s unclear how the revelation about Conner will affect the trial, currently set to start Oct. 6. “Is there an impact of that on the case? I would have to say yes, potentially,” Griffith said.
Jones’ attorney, Sara Alvarez, said ESPN’s finding raises further questions about the state’s case.
“I’m not shocked, but appalled,” she said by telephone Thursday. “This is a bigger issue. This is just blatant lies. Bald-faced lies.
“It’s a shame and it’s disgusting that you would be willing to send a man to prison for the rest of his life without any evidence and then not be honest about what evidence exists and doesn’t exist.”
In a conversation with an ESPN reporter and in questioning by police, Jones has said he did not kill Pata. He has pleaded not guilty.
Conner, a retired University of Miami writing instructor, once lived in the apartment complex where Pata, a likely high draft pick in the 2007 NFL draft, was shot once in the head in November 2006.
Conner contacted police soon after the shooting, saying he heard a “pop” and saw someone “jogging” away from the parking lot entrance near where Pata was shot. Conner picked Jones out of a photo lineup.
Some 13 years later, Conner was reinterviewed in 2020 and again picked Jones out of a lineup, according to Jones’ arrest warrant. And Conner recounted what he saw at a 2022 bond hearing and in a 2023 deposition with attorneys.
Conner, now 81, told ESPN in his Aug. 25 interview that he now doesn’t recall what happened in Miami, and he seemed unfamiliar with his prior statements.
“I’m getting up in years,” he said. “My memory comes and goes. How long ago was this court case?”
With Jones’ trial date looming, Miami assistant state attorney Cristina Diamond told Miranda in a July 17 hearing that officials believed Conner to be dead after multiple failed attempts to contact him and a third-party commercial database indicating he was deceased. Miranda accepted the efforts to find Conner and ruled to allow his prior testimony from the hearing and deposition to be used at trial. Jones’ attorneys had initially objected on grounds of their inability to cross-examine his statements but conceded to accept the state’s evidence during that hearing.
ESPN’s interview with Conner was actually the second confirmation that he was alive. After a reporter contacted Conner’s last known employer, a former colleague asked Louisville police to conduct a welfare check. On July 22, Conner answered and confirmed his identity, according to police bodycam images reviewed by ESPN.
The Miami-Dade Police Department’s inability to find Conner is the latest in a long string of official missteps that have dramatically prolonged the case and frustrated Pata’s still-grieving family. According to information obtained by ESPN through a lawsuit against Miami-Dade Police and other interviews and records, Jones was among the first suspects considered by police, but they didn’t arrest him until 2021, nine months after ESPN first published its findings. Jones, now 40, has remained in custody for the past four years amid court delays and changes in attorneys on both sides.
In March 2022, Miranda agreed to grant Jones an $850,000 bail and allow him out, pending trial; however, Jones has not paid the amount — typically 10%, or $85,000 — needed for release, sources told ESPN.
That bond hearing included in-person testimony from Conner. Police had no eyewitness to the shooting, so Conner was a key element to a case that relies heavily on testimony from friends and teammates that Jones and Pata fought verbally and physically before the killing and that Jones possessed a gun similar to the one likely used to kill Pata (although police never recovered the weapon).
Conner told the court he was walking to the Colony Apartment Complex, where he and Pata lived, just before 7 p.m. on Nov. 7, 2006. He was near the parking lot entrance when he heard a “loud bang.” About 15 to 20 seconds later, Conner testified, he came “face-to-face” with a man walking at a brisk pace. “He smiled at me. He had a clean set of white teeth,” Conner said. “I described him to the forensic artist.”
On the photo lineup from which Conner picked out Jones’ photo, Conner had put his signature, date and the phrase “90 percent,” and a defense attorney asked him what that meant.
“One of the detectives asked me, how sure I was that that was the defendant. And I answered 90%,” he said.
The attorney later asks, “So, if I understand you correctly, there is a 10% error in your calculation of whether or not this person is the person that you saw on that night?” to which Conner responds, “It could have been.”
The defense attorney also noted that when Conner, several years later, picked Jones out of a lineup, Jones’ picture was in the same location on a page as the first time — the top middle photo.
In building their case against Jones, prosecutors also have cited Jones’ actions that night, including his failure to attend a mandatory team meeting called after the shooting and efforts to borrow money to leave the area. They also cite cell phone records they say contradict where Jones told officers he had been.
According to a state motion filed July 8 to request the use of Conner’s prior testimony, Det. Segovia said he had been in touch with the FBI and local police in Ohio, where Conner last worked at the University of Toledo. Segovia said he learned that Conner had moved to Kentucky.
Segovia then reached out to the Louisville Police Department, and according to the motion, “contact was made with the leasing office of that address, and they indicated that Mr. Conner did not live there.” Records show prosecutors were planning to subpoena a homicide detective from Louisville. No such officer has testified in the case.
ESPN requested records from the Louisville Police Department and connected with a spokesperson multiple times to inquire about any efforts made to locate Conner and any efforts by the officer who had been subpoenaed to testify. The spokesperson there said there were no records of any officer going to Conner’s address until the welfare check requested by the university colleague and ESPN’s inquiries. Conner said he has lived at his Louisville address for about a couple of years. A family member said they knew of no reason the leasing office would say Conner didn’t live there. A call to the leasing office was not returned.
ESPN made multiple requests to police and the Miami-Dade State Attorney for records of their efforts to find Conner. After initially claiming they had no documents, they eventually provided an email exchange in which Segovia wrote that he left 15 voicemail messages with Conner since May. Segovia added that he also sent emails to an address that officers had used with him previously. They also provided a copy of a June 6 letter addressed to Conner at his Louisville address that asked him to contact their office.
During ESPN’s visit, Conner allowed a reporter to review his phone. There were dozens of unanswered calls, and he appeared unfamiliar with how to check his voicemail. Several calls came from Miami-area phone numbers, including at least one that matched a phone number for Segovia. At a prior hearing, prosecutors said they had been aware Conner struggled with “technology” and had been difficult to reach.
Miami-Dade officials and the judge did not have a death certificate, mortuary record, obituary or any other official record of death, but instead relied on a commercial third-party information provider. Such companies often provide factual background information, but their terms of use disclose that information might contain errors, and they do not guarantee accuracy.
Conner’s cousin Steve Fahey, who said he was familiar with Conner’s prior role in the case, said he sees Conner frequently. He told ESPN in a phone interview that Conner has struggled lately with memory issues. He said Conner never mentioned anyone from Miami trying to reach him, and Fahey said no one from Miami tried to contact him, either.
Miami-Dade officials noted they spoke to a “distant cousin” of Conner’s who they said was unaware of Conner’s whereabouts, but they did not name the individual.
Alvarez, Jones’ attorney, said she should be able to question Conner in front of a jury about what she said were contradictions in details he gave police at various times. Whether Conner testifies, Alvarez said she plans to question Segovia about what she calls lies and misrepresentations of evidence.
Among other issues affecting the case recently, police told the court this summer that they had lost Pata’s student judicial records from the University of Miami. Pata had been involved in — although sometimes as just a bystander — a few misdemeanor-level altercations, according to the records, which ESPN acquired years ago through a public records request.
During a July 9 hearing, Jones’ attorney asked for a copy of an unredacted “lead sheet,” which was a four-page document with all the leads officers were looking into and a list of 39 individuals. The Miami-Dade Police Department used the lead sheet in the public records litigation with ESPN to assert the case was still active.
But during the hearing, the two main detectives who had worked the case said they didn’t know where the lead sheet was, and Segovia said it likely was discarded.
Florida law governs what documents agencies may destroy and which must be kept. Part of the statute applies to “summary information on … suspects or accomplices in crimes” and says records in that category must be retained “until obsolete, superseded, or administrative value is lost.”
Officials have not provided a reason as to why Jones wasn’t arrested until 2021, other than to say the case got a “fresh set of eyes” after Segovia was assigned as lead detective in 2020. That was around the time ESPN sued the Miami-Dade Police Department over the redacted investigative file. The last dated entry in the police report before the arrest was from 2010.
In a deposition last year, Segovia testified that police did not uncover any new evidence in the ensuing years that gave them probable cause to arrest Jones in 2021. “It was there all along,” Segovia said, but in 2007, the state attorney did not believe the case was strong enough to make an arrest.
In testimony during the records lawsuit hearings, law enforcement officials argued that they had a prime suspect and that there could be an arrest “in the foreseeable future,” which they said justified that the case was still active and its records not subject to disclosure; under Florida law, records from closed or adjudicated cases are subject to release.
In a pretrial hearing July 11, ASA Diamond offered a plea agreement to Jones of 18 years with credit for time served, but Jones — who attended the hearing via video conference — and his attorney rejected the offer.
In Florida, a conviction for second-degree murder could carry a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.
ESPN’s original investigation into the case revealed a multitude of leads that police pursued, including a dispute Pata had over stolen car wheels, an angry ex-girlfriend, a nightclub fight involving possible gang members and two alleged jailhouse confessions. Nothing came of the tips.
The investigation also found multiple inconsistencies in police statements, leads that weren’t pursued to the end and people connected to Pata who were never interviewed.
Pata’s family members have, over the years, expressed frustration and disappointment in what they see as a lack of interest and effort by police.
Leading up to the trial, Edwin Pata, Bryan’s brother, said they were ready to finally see Jones on trial.
“It’s good that we’re actually going to put it behind us,” he said. “It’s constantly on our minds … we just got to be ready for it and know what to expect and be able to handle it.”
ESPN producers Scott Frankel and Gus Navarro contributed to this report.
Sports
MLB playoff tracker: Cubs clinch their spot — who can secure postseason play next?
Published
6 hours agoon
September 18, 2025By
admin
A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers gunning for the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have also locked up their division title, and the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays are pretty much playoff locks with leads in their divisions, as well.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Saturday with a Mets’ loss to Texas.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies clinched a spot in October on Sunday with the Giants’ loss to the Dodgers. On Monday with a win over the Dodgers, they clinched the NL East title for the second straight year.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Wednesday with a win over the Pirates. It’s their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers have the chance to clinch their playoff spots this week. The Tigers, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres all have at least a 99% chance of making the postseason, as well.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Red Sox at (3) Astros, (5) Mariners at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Red Sox/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Mariners/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are attempting to separate themselves from each other in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians remain within striking distance for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets clinging to a lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot, and there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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