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You can’t win a fantasy baseball championship without taking some chances.

Whether it’s a player’s injury history, inexperience, year-over-year inconsistency or a skill set or advanced metrics that don’t match his raw statistics, many factors can attract us to certain players, as well as scare us away from them entirely. Deciphering these, in order to make our best estimates on their seasonal expectations, can be critical to our draft preparation. After all, known commodities can provide a strong base from which to build our fantasy teams, but it’s the players with the widest ranges of potential outcomes who can provide us the most profit potential.

Fortunately, this column is to help you on this risk/reward research quest. Listed below are 10 of the players I see as having some of the widest ranges of potential 2023 outcomes. What might be in store for each? Let’s take a look.

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers

The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has averaged 21 quality starts, a 2.05 ERA and 291 strikeouts per 162 team games while on the active roster. In the history of baseball, only six pitchers have had a season in which they met or exceeded all three of those numbers, and not one of them had a WHIP as low as deGrom’s 0.73 in his 162-game, prorated time span.

The bad: He has been on the active roster for only 51% of his team’s games during that time.

Take the chance? Well, deGrom’s 2023 spring training has followed this same peaks-and-valleys pattern, as he experienced side soreness in its opening days then was absolutely brilliant in his first Cactus League appearance this past Sunday. This seems an inescapable pattern, and there’s always the chance the forearm issues he battled throughout 2021 might resurface. He is so good when healthy, though, that I default to “yes, absolutely.” He also has reasonable ADPs of 27th overall in National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues over the past 10 days and 22nd overall in ESPN standard points-based leagues.

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has slugged .576 while averaging 51 home runs, 93 RBIs and 110 runs scored per 162 games played. Aaron Judge (2017, 2022) and Giancarlo Stanton (2017) are the only players who have met or exceeded all of those thresholds in any of the past 15 seasons.

The bad: He has played in exactly 50% of Twins games over that time.

Take the chance? No, but that’s also because it’s tough to trust a player whose team has kept him in metaphorical bubble wrap all spring, and presumably will limit him to DH duty to begin the regular season (while also probably hampering his freedom on the base paths). Buxton’s answer here hinges entirely on his asking price in your specific league, as I have shares in some places where it was reasonable. One sign that it generally won’t be reasonable is that he’s going roughly 40 spots earlier than my ranking in ESPN standard points-based leagues.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

The good: Through his four-year, big league career to date, he has batted .292/.369/.596 while averaging 48 home runs, 116 RBIs, 31 stolen bases and 125 runs scored per 162 games played. The only player in history to reach all of those thresholds in a single season was Larry Walker (1997), who did it as a member of the Colorado Rockies.

The bad: Tatis has played in exactly 50% of Padres games since the date of his big league debut in 2019.

Take the chance? He wouldn’t even be on here if not for his 80-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy, a penalty that ended his 2022 before it began, will cost him an additional 20 games at the start of 2023, and has cast some doubt among fantasy managers about the legitimacy of his above numbers. Nevertheless, Tatis is a dynamic talent — a five-category standout — who has looked outstanding in recent spring action. He has that deGrom-esque, so-good-when-healthy skill set that warrants an easy “yes.”

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

The good: Statcast had Cruz with a 15.5% barrel rate and 29.9 feet-per-second sprint speed last season, which placed him in the 96th and 98th percentiles across the league. He joined Buxton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with at least as many batted balls in play last season who also finished in the 90th percentile or better in both departments.

The bad: His 35.8% miss rate on swings ranked in the fifth percentile and 35.1% strikeout rate ranked in the second percentile among players who came to the plate at least as many times as he did in 2021-22 combined.

Take the chance? Yes! Cruz might be the least experienced name on this list, and his fantasy managers must remember to be patient through his cold spells, such as his 1-for-14, six-strikeout stretch since I published that linked sleepers column. The only reason to hesitate is the asking price, currently a generous 59th overall in NFBC and 88th overall in ESPN points-based leagues, both of which are a tad high for my tastes. Still, Cruz is one of the very few players in the game with the natural skills to join the 30/30 club, one that has added only five new members over the past 10 seasons after there were 49 instances of a 30/30 campaign in the previous 26 years.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees

The good: He’s the king of Statcast hard contact, as in the system’s eight seasons, his 93.9 mph average exit velocity ranks second best, his 17.6% barrel rate ranks fifth best and his 50.9% hard-hit rate ranks fifth best. Stanton has averaged 40 home runs per 162 games played in his five years with the Yankees.

The bad: He has made six trips to the injured list across the past four seasons alone, totaling 223 missed Yankees games.

Take the chance? The Yankees’ lack of outfield depth, coupled with an overcrowded infield that demands the flexibility of the DH role, probably will press Stanton into a repeat (or more) of his 38 outfield appearances in 2022. That will put him at increased risk of future IL stints, and then there’s that career-worst .211 batting average with which to contend. He’ll be the cheapest of these first five, but not enough so to be worth the chance.

Other risk/reward quick takes

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: An oblique strain that threatens to sideline him into May is just the latest of a litany of injuries, and bear in mind that he hasn’t exceeded 111⅔ innings in any of his past five seasons. I’m not a big believer in players fitting that description who are beginning the new season hurt, and Glasnow’s No. 153 overall NFBC ADP represents a pretty hefty price tag.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: A 2021 breakthrough performer, he struggled with injuries on three separate occasions last season, and yet, he’s still going within the top 100 overall in NFBC leagues. O’Neill is one of the more underrated speedsters in the game, with exceptional power metrics in 2021, but he’s a player who would be much more attractive a pick if he slid two to three rounds beyond his current ADP.

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: He’s having a stellar spring training, will serve as the cleanup man behind a loaded top three of the Angels’ lineup and, perhaps most importantly, is going outside the top 180 overall picks in both roto and points-based leagues. Rendon, now 32 years old, is at a stage of his career when injuries are a mounting concern, but he’s looking like a good rebound candidate for the price.

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox: My biggest concern with him is his precipitous drop in Statcast sprint speed, which explains his zero stolen bases from last June 13 forward. Robert needs to recapture some of those lost steals, but what appeals to me are his underrated contact metrics. He’s the player on this list for whom I could most go in either direction, but his current ADP is leaning slightly too generous.

Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: He has had two good spring outings and one mediocre one, with the key takeaway that he’s seemingly healthy and throwing with decent velocity. The level of caution with which the Red Sox treated him last season casts concerns that he might not be afforded more than 140 innings in 2023, but for the current price — 122nd overall in NFBC and 134th in ESPN points-based leagues — he looks like a potentially profitable pitcher.

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Rule changes let Castroneves enter Daytona 500

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Rule changes let Castroneves enter Daytona 500

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Four-time Indianapolis 500 winner Helio Castroneves claimed a spot in the season-opening Daytona 500 as part of a slew of rule changes NASCAR announced Friday.

Castroneves is guaranteed a spot in the field under a new provision that earmarks a starting position for what NASCAR called “world-class drivers” who enter a Cup Series race. Before the Friday change, Castroneves was going to either have to earn his spot in the 40-car field on speed in time trials or finishing position in a qualifying race.

If he failed to do either, the Brazilian would be in the field as a 41st car and four open spots would still remain for drivers hoping to race in the Feb. 16 “Great American Race.” Castroneves will be driving for Trackhouse Racing in his NASCAR debut at age 49.

Under the new rule, if the provisional is used, the driver/car owner will not be eligible for race points, playoff points or prize money. Cars that finish below the driver who uses the provisional will have their finishing position adjusted upward one spot and also have their prize money, race points and stage points adjusted.

If the provisional car wins a race and/or stage, that car will be credited with the race win. It will not count toward playoff eligibility. The second-place finisher will inherit first-place points, but will not receive playoff points or playoff eligibility.

Among other changes issued Friday:

Playoff waivers: NASCAR said if a driver misses a race for anything besides a medical emergency, the driver will forfeit all current and future playoff points and will start the playoffs with a maximum of 2,000 points.

Covered under medical emergency would be emergencies for the driver, the birth of a child or a family emergency, as well as age restrictions.

It means that Kyle Larson, who is scheduled to again race in both the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 for a second consecutive year, must return from Indiana to North Carolina and compete in the Cup race. It was a point of contention last year when rain delayed the 500 in Indy, Larson was late to arrive in North Carolina for the 600, and by the time he got to the track, rain had stopped that race.

Larson never got to compete in the Coca-Cola 600, and NASCAR hemmed and hawed for a lengthy amount of time before finally granting him a waiver.

Waivers previously came with no penalties such as the loss of playoff points.

Penalties to manufacturers: After the penultimate race at Martinsville Speedway was marred last year by allegations of manufacturers banding together to push their drivers into the championship race, NASCAR vowed to look at how it can stop such manipulation in the future.

NASCAR said that, moving forward, violations by manufacturers may result in the loss of manufacturers points, and/or loss of wind tunnel hours. NASCAR will assess such penalties for violation of the vehicle testing policy, wind tunnel policy, event roster and code of conduct.

Performance obligation: NASCAR did not give many details on this change other than “verbiage around the 100% rule is replaced with a focus on ‘manipulating’ the outcome of an event/championship.”

Practice and qualifying: New practice and qualifying procedures were formally added to the rulebook. Group practice goes from 20 to 25 minutes; single-round qualifying at all tracks but superspeedways, which will have a final round for 10 cars; and starting position is determined solely by qualifying results instead of row-by-row designation based on which qualifying group the car was in.

Suspension deferral: NASCAR said all suspensions that are a result of a technical penalty can be deferred without appeal for the next race following a penalty. All other suspensions are effective immediately.

Damaged vehicle policy: NASCAR has altered this policy for the Cup Series after many complaints about how the rule was applied last year.

Vehicles on the DVP clock may drive to the garage or be towed to the garage and will not be ruled out of the race. Previously, if a car on the DVP clock was towed to the garage or drove to the garage, it was out of the race.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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Effort to unionize college athletes hits road block

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Effort to unionize college athletes hits road block

The legal efforts to unionize college athletes appear to be running out of steam this month as a new Republican-led administration gets set to take over the federal agency in charge of ruling on employment cases.

A players’ advocacy group who filed charges against the NCAA, Pac-12 and USC that would have potentially opened the door for college players to form a union decided Friday to withdraw its complaint. Their case – which was first filed in February 2022 – was one of two battles against the NCAA taken up by the National Labor Relations Board in recent years. Earlier this week, an administrative law judge closed the other case, which was filed by men’s basketball players at Dartmouth.

The National College Players Association, which filed its complaint on behalf of USC athletes, said the recent changes in state law and NCAA rules that are on track to allow schools to directly pay their players starting this summer caused them to reconsider their complaint.

“[T]he NCPA believes that it is best to provide adequate time for the college sports industry to transition into this new era before football and basketball players employee status is ruled upon,” the organization’s founder Ramogi Huma wrote in the motion to withdraw.

The NCAA and its four power conferences agreed to the terms of a legal settlement this summer that will allow schools to spend up to roughly $20.5 million on direct payments to their athletes starting next academic year. The deal is scheduled to be finalized in April.

College sports leaders, including NCAA President Charlie Baker, have remained steadfast in their belief that athletes should not be considered employees of their schools during a period when college sports have moved closer to a professionalized model.

Some industry stakeholders believe that the richest schools in college sports will need to collectively bargain with athletes to put an end to the current onslaught of legal challenges facing the industry. Currently, any collective bargaining would have to happen with a formal union to provide sufficient legal protection. Some members of Congress say they are discussing the possibility of creating a special status for college sports that would allow collective bargaining without employment. However, Congressional aides familiar with ongoing negotiations told ESPN that influential Republican leaders in Congress are firmly against the idea.

The NLRB’s national board previously declined to make a ruling on whether college athletes should be employees in 2015 when a group of football players at Northwestern attempted to unionize. Jennifer Abruzzo, the agency’s leader during the Biden administration, signaled an interest in taking up the athletes’ fight to unionize early in her tenure. Abruzzo is not expected to remain as the NLRB’s general counsel during Donald Trump’s presidency.

Under Abruzzo, the agency’s regional offices pushed both the Dartmouth and USC cases forward in the past year. Dartmouth players got far enough to vote in favor of forming a union in March 2024, but were still in the appeals process when they decided to end their effort last month.

The only remaining legal fight over employee status in college sports is a federal lawsuit known as Johnson v. NCAA. That case claims the association is violating the Fair Labor Standards Act, which does not guarantee the right to unionize but instead would give athletes some basic employee rights such as minimum wage and overtime pay. That case is currently working its way through the legal process in the Third Circuit federal court.

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LSU’s Lacy facing charges related to fatal crash

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LSU's Lacy facing charges related to fatal crash

Louisiana State Police have issued an arrest warrant for former LSU receiver Kyren Lacy, who is accused of causing a fatal crash that killed a 78-year-old man on Dec. 17 and then fleeing the scene without rendering aid or calling authorities.

Louisiana State Police said on Friday that Lacy will be charged with negligent homicide, felony hit-and-run and reckless operation of a vehicle.

Police said they have been in contact with Lacy and his attorney to turn himself in.

According to a news release from state police, Lacy was allegedly driving a 2023 Dodge Charger on Louisiana Highway 20 and “recklessly passed multiple vehicles at a high rate of speed by crossing the centerline and entering the northbound lane while in a designated no-passing zone.”

“As Lacy was illegally passing the other vehicles, the driver of a northbound pickup truck abruptly braked and swerved to the right to avoid a head-on collision with the approaching Dodge,” a Louisiana State Police news release said.

“Traveling behind the pickup was a 2017 Kia Cadenza whose driver swerved left to avoid the oncoming Dodge Charger. As the Kia Cadenza took evasive action to avoid impact with the Dodge, it crossed the centerline and collided head-on with a southbound 2017 Kia Sorento.”

Police alleged that Lacy, 24, drove around the crash scene and fled “without stopping to render aid, call emergency services, or report his involvement in the crash.”

Herman Hall, 78, of Thibodaux, Louisiana, who was a passenger in the Kia Sorrento, later died from injuries suffered in the crash, according to state police.

The drivers of the Cadenza and Sorento also sustained moderate injuries, according to police.

Lacy played two seasons at Louisiana before transferring to LSU in 2022. This past season, he had 58 catches for 866 yards with nine touchdowns and declared for the NFL draft on Dec. 19, two days after the crash.

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