Your guide to MLB’s offseason chaos: The wild moves that happened — and the even wilder ones that didn’t
The opening week of the 2023 MLB season is just four days away following a baseball offseason that was, in a word, chaotic.
Not long after the Houston Astros were done celebrating their 2022 World Series title, the hot stove season heated up and provided a little bit of everything — from Cy Young winners changing teams and a star switching sides of a rivalry to decade-long record contracts and unexpected big spenders. And the drama surrounding the players who ultimately stayed put somehow managed to top even the biggest additions.
Whether you are just realizing that Jacob deGrom left New York for the Texas Rangers, Justin Verlander replaced him on the New York Mets and Carlos Correa is on the … well, you are going to need to sit down for that one — or you know all the moves that went down and still aren’t quite sure what to make of them, there’s plenty to learn before the games begin. ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield break down the moves that rocked the offseason. What did they mean for the teams that made them — and for the rest of MLB?
Who needs a GM to sign a former MVP?
Date of the deal: Nov. 28: Astros sign Jose Abreu for three years, $58.5 million
What if means for the Astros: The Astros’ core has been evolving ever so quietly over the past two or three years, and with mainstay Yuli Gurriel headed for free agency, the choice for the then-GM-less Astros was to either pursue a 38-year-old player coming off his second poor offensive season in three years, or a 36-year-old player two years removed from an MVP award and coming off another strong season. Houston’s GM-less front office chose door No. 2, inking Jose Abreu to a three-year, $58.5 million deal. And so the Astros still have a high-contact, run-producing veteran first baseman — albeit for a lot more money than it would have cost to keep Gurriel, who ended up with a minor-league pact with the Marlins.
How it rocked baseball: Gently. Anytime the reigning champions add a former MVP, the baseball world is going to notice — but there are much bigger moves ahead.
Abreu landed the upper end of the range of contract he could have hoped for, and now he has a chance to roll with the defending champs in pursuit of his first World Series ring. The move invited scrutiny only because it was natural to wonder if the Astros would have given three years to Abreu, or anyone else who might have served as a Gurriel replacement, had championship-winning GM James Click still been in the fold. No other first base/DH atop this winter’s free agent market got a three-year contract and the total value of the deal was 46% more than any other free agent in that role received.
Dominoes: Probably not many, as it’s unlikely teams were lining up to give Abreu that kind of contract. But there were at least a few interested suitors because despite his age, Abreu is a 1B/DH run producer good enough to hit in the middle of the order. His record of consistency and durability were big marks in his favor. The Guardians reportedly also offered Abreu three years and so might have preferred Abreu to Josh Bell, whom they eventually landed on a two-year deal. Elsewhere, if the price point were different, maybe the Dodgers would have given Abreu a long look rather than signing J.D. Martinez. The White Sox, Abreu’s old team, seemed intent to move forward with younger players already on their roster. Overall, the signing created more of a ripple than a wave, but it’s hard to ignore anytime the defending champs add an impact bat to their lineup.
The Rangers gave Jacob deGrom how much?
Date of deal: Dec. 2: Rangers sign Jacob deGrom for five years, $185 million
What it means for the Rangers: If deGrom can stay healthy, this move could push the Rangers into wild-card contention and make us forget that this was viewed as something of an overpay at the time. (The five-year, $185 million contract was such a shock that even New York Mets owner Steve Cohen wouldn’t match it to keep the longtime ace in Queens.)
DeGrom has looked great this spring after being slowed by tightness on his left side. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll be the lead in a revamped rotation that features newcomers Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney along with holdovers Martin Perez and Jon Gray. It’s simple: deGrom gives the Rangers American League West legitimacy — as long as he’s on the mound every five days.
How it rocked baseball: This was the move that really ignited this winter’s hot stove. The deal was announced just days before the winter meetings and served as a reminder there was money ready to be spent by teams across the league after last year’s lockout.
Adding deGrom’s contract to the combined $500 million Texas doled out for Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last season showed the Rangers are suddenly playing in the deep end of the free agency pool. It also signaled to fans the team was basically all-in after hiring Bruce Bochy as manager.
But the length of the deal also had many in the game shaking their heads. Is the oft-injured deGrom really going to be healthy for one season — let alone five? “Risky move” was a term used by rival general managers in the aftermath of the signing — of course, deGrom will be facing their teams this season, so they might be eating their own words.
Dominoes: When Texas followed the deGrom signing by adding Eovaldi and Heaney to its rotation, the AL playoff hopefuls gained a new contender. Texas’ starting pitching spree also made the competition even stiffer for teams trying to upgrade their own rotations during the offseason.
But the biggest domino this move set off fell when the Mets countered with an ace signing of their own a few days later …
Did you really think the Mets wouldn’t respond with a huge splash?
Date of deal: Dec. 5: Mets sign Justin Verlander for two years, $86.7 million
What it means for the Mets: Remember, the Mets entered the offseason needing to replace or re-sign several key free agents. They took care of one the day after the World Series, quickly re-signing Edwin Diaz to a $102 million deal. That still meant three-fifths of their starting rotation were free agents — deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. With deGrom headed to Texas, the Mets moved quickly to replace an injury-prone ace with one who had just won the AL Cy Young Award.
In his return from Tommy John surgery with the Astros in 2022, Verlander had one of his best seasons, going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and holding batters to a .186 average. The only acknowledgment to age and health was a dip in his workload: He made just 28 starts and pitched 175 innings, after averaging 34 and 218 with Houston in 2018 and 2019. The Astros’ rotation depth meant Verlander started just five times all season on four days of rest, so that may be something the Mets consider doing as well. Yes, he’s now 40 years old, but at the same age, Randy Johnson finished second in the Cy Young voting, Nolan Ryan led the National League in ERA and strikeouts, Roger Clemens won 17 games and Tom Seaver won 16. The great ones are often still great at 40.
How it rocked baseball: Everyone knew Steve Cohen was going to spend money this offseason — with so many free agents, the Mets had no choice. But making a 40-year-old pitcher the highest-paid player in the game is always going to draw a few raised eyebrows — and four-letter exclamations. In the interest of team harmony, Verlander’s two-year contract (it also includes a conditional player option for 2025) will pay him $43.333 million per season — matching teammate Max Scherzer for the highest annual average salary in the sport. While Cohen’s pockets are deeper than the Mariana Trench, the deGrom-Verlander maneuvering also showed the Mets weren’t going to approach the offseason with complete reckless abandon: When the deGrom price tag got higher than they were comfortable with, they shifted gears to Verlander.
If there was a surprise here, it was that the Astros and Dodgers — the two initial favorites to land Verlander — never seemed to be in the picture. The Astros didn’t have a general manager at the time and seemed intent on not dramatically increasing their payroll and relying on their pitching depth for 2023, while the Dodgers, who like short-term contracts, appeared intent on lowering payroll for 2023 — and perhaps stashing away money for a run at Shohei Ohtani for 2024.
Dominoes: The Mets weren’t going to stop at Verlander. A couple of days later they signed Jose Quintana and then a few days after that they signed Kodai Senga, the hard-throwing righty out of Japan. That filled New York’s rotation needs, so Bassitt signed with the Blue Jays and Walker with the Phillies — and with deGrom and Verlander both off the board, Carlos Rodon was left as the clear top starter still available.
A $300 million megadeal starts the shortstop carousel
Date of deal: Dec. 5: Phillies sign Trea Turner for 11 years, $300 million
What it means for the Phillies: Trea Turner is another dynamic hitter in a lineup full of them, and he should help Philadelphia get by without Bryce Harper for at least the early part of the 2023 season. As he showcased in the World Baseball Classic, Turner brings a combination of speed and power that few other players possess — a perfect fit for the only NL offense to rank in the top five in both home runs and stolen bases last season. With the rule changes, expect Turner to swipe even more bags, providing a lethal combination of talents at the top of the lineup (while also playing a key position on the field). There are some injury questions in Philadelphia’s lineup, but this is still one of the most dangerous offenses in all of baseball.
How it rocked baseball: Turner’s 11-year, $300 million deal was the first of several decade-long contracts given out over the winter. Because we did not yet know just how freely money was going to be spent on the other top available hitters, those two numbers — $300 million and 11 years — drew a collective “wow” from the industry, which was gathered at the winter meetings in San Diego. It became the second-largest deal for a shortstop in MLB history, and even with what came after, only one free agent received more total dollars than Turner this winter.
Dominoes: Turner set the market for shortstops. He’s the best of the four stars at the position who were available, and he got the most money. After Turner signed, teams looking for an impact player at the position knew they would have to pay big to land one of those remaining: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. In the end, thanks to Turner setting the tone, the four players received a combined $965 million.
Arson Judge to San Francisco; Aaron Judge returns to the Bronx
Date of the Deal: Dec. 7: Yankees re-sign Aaron Judge for nine years, $360 million
What it means for the Giants and Yankees: For the Giants, this was a once-in-a-decade opportunity. Landing Aaron Judge would have been the team’s biggest free agent signing since Barry Bonds in 1992, almost 30 years to the day from when Judge … didn’t sign with them. With Judge off the table, the Giants moved on to Carlos Correa — and then moved on from Carlos Correa, pivoting back to the softer lights of adding quality veteran depth. The Yankees, on the other hand, retained a great player who had already achieved iconic status for a franchise with which that’s not easy to do. It was more than a baseball coup — it was a message to everyone that maybe, just maybe, the Yankees brand is still transcendent.
How it rocked baseball: Well, the thing that will resonate from the Judge-to-the-Giants saga was that we all got another reminder to never tweet. All along it seemed like Judge was overwhelmingly likely to either remain with the Yankees or end up with the Giants, for whom he rooted as a Bay Area kid. During the hours in which it seemed like Judge might be changing coasts, there were knee-jerk reactions published and many more that were prepared but never posted. Perhaps someone will come out with a book of those unnecessary commentaries someday.
Dominoes: Correa … and Not Correa. For a moment, the Giants’ offseason seemed so glitzy, and then it didn’t. It was as strange an offseason a franchise has had in a long time. And it might still turn out to be a decent one if their less-splashy acquisitions (the ones that actually happened) pan out. Meanwhile, the Yankees, with Judge in hand, turned their focus to pitching and landed Carlos Rodon … from the Giants. Things haven’t been this strange between these franchises since they shared the Polo Grounds.
The Padres get in on the shortstop fun (because of course they do)
Date of deal: Dec. 7: Padres sign Xander Bogaerts for 11 years, $288 million
What it means for the Padres: The Padres didn’t need a shortstop — Ha-Seong Kim had a solid 2022 season, especially with the glove, and they have Fernando Tatis Jr. coming back from injury and suspension next month. But with Bogaerts they get a four-time All-Star coming off one of his best all-around seasons, a hitter with a .304 average over the past four seasons and a reputation as a strong leader.
The Padres are all-in with an exclamation point, and now they have a fearsome offensive foursome in Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts. Bogaerts will play shortstop, Kim will slide over to second, Jake Cronenworth to first and Tatis will move to the outfield. With the Dodgers expected to take a major step back from their 111-win season, many now view the Padres as favorites to win the NL West — something they haven’t done since 2006.
How it rocked baseball: The Padres?!?! How the heck are the Padres doing this?!?! Indeed, Bogaerts’ 11-year, $280 million deal — on top of the mega-contracts the team already had with Tatis and Machado — was perhaps the most shocking of the offseason. At the beginning of the offseason, estimates for Bogaerts ranged from $168 million (ESPN) to $189 million (MLB Trade Rumors) to $217 million (FanGraphs). As good as he is, Bogaerts hit just 15 home runs in 2022, he’s entering his age-30 season and his defensive metrics have usually been below average (although not in 2022).
The deal staggered front offices and other owners. Indeed, while owners expected Steve Cohen and the Mets to spend lavishly, that comes with the territory of playing in New York. The small-market Padres, after running the sixth-highest payroll in 2022, will likely rank third this season behind only the Mets and Yankees. To top it off, the Padres later signed Machado to an 11-year, $350 million extension rather than let him walk away from his opt-out after the season. There are some in the game wondering how the Padres can afford it — and there are fans wondering why their team’s owner can’t do the same thing.
Dominoes: Well, here’s the deal: Owner Peter Seidler and GM A.J. Preller were going to spend the money on somebody. They reportedly offered Turner $342 million. They made a pitch at the winter meetings — held in San Diego — hoping to lure Judge to the West Coast.
When they ultimately made Bogaerts their signature offseason signing, no team felt the pressure more than the shortstop’s former team — the Boston Red Sox. Fans in Boston were angry. Another star had left, and the fact that the Padres were willing to spend like this while Boston’s ownership was not added to the ire. Soon after, the Red Sox handed out an 11-year, $331 million extension to ensure Rafael Devers would spend his entire career with the franchise.
An All-Star catcher changes sides of a heated rivalry
Date of deal: Dec. 7: Cardinals sign Willson Contreras for five years, $87.5 million
What it means for the Cardinals: St. Louis replaced a legend with an All-Star, not a bad follow-up after franchise icon Yadier Molina retired. It’s a defensive downgrade — no one was better than Molina at calling a game and dealing with pitchers — but the Cardinals will get more offense from the position. Willson Contreras will likely slot in after Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in one of the game’s best 3-4-5 lineup combinations.
How it rocked baseball: Few thought that the organization synonymous with developing pitchers over the decades would hand the keys to its staff to an offensive-minded catcher like Contreras. But the real shockwaves came because a star who had spent the entirety of his career on the North Side of Chicago landed with the Cubs’ biggest rival — where he will be tasked with succeeding a St. Louis icon. As you can imagine, Cubs fans were stunned by Contreras’ landing spot and Cardinals fans will have to get used to rooting for a player who was a big part of their rivals’ recent success.
The five-year, $87.5 million deal also opened some eyes because it didn’t seem that Contreras had a lengthy list of suitors. The Cardinals opted to sign Contreras over making a trade for one of the available catchers and were confident enough to make him the highest-paid free agent in franchise history.
Dominoes: The catching market thinned out quickly once Contreras signed with the Cardinals, including the Cubs turning to defensive-minded Tucker Barnhart to fill their own hole at the position. But the biggest fallout of the Cardinals signing Contreras was that it crossed off one possible trade destination for another All-Star backstop.
The Braves make their annual deal for an A’s star
Date of deal: Dec. 12: Braves acquire Sean Murphy in trade with A’s
What it means for the Braves: The Braves’ deal to acquire catcher Sean Murphy from Oakland came about nine months after they brought in Matt Olson from the A’s in a deal that returned catcher Shea Langeliers — who became a big reason why Oakland was willing to part with Murphy. Not long after Atlanta traded for Murphy, they signed him to one of those Braves-esque extensions, this one going for six years, $73 million. It’s a team-friendly deal (as long as the team isn’t called the “Oakland Athletics“).
How it rocked baseball: This trade probably produced more than one spit-take from rival executives. Because Murphy’s service time was climbing into the latter phase of his controllable years, and Oakland had Langeliers in hand, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the A’s would trade him — he’s a good player, and that’s what happens to good players on the A’s. There were plenty of contending teams that could have used Murphy. The Braves weren’t necessarily one of them, but they saw the chance and they took it.
Dominoes: The Guardians ended up with Mike Zunino. The Astros stood pat with Martin Maldonado, deciding against signing a replacement for Christian Bethancourt. The Braves, after landing Murphy, dealt William Contreras to the Brewers for a prospect. There is much that is different than it would have been had Oakland traded Murphy to what seemed like a more likely destination.
Carlos Correa to the Giants … or so it seemed
Date of (non-)deal: Dec. 13: Carlos Correa, Giants agree to deal for 13 years, $350 million
What it meant for the Giants: The Giants had been searching for a new face of the franchise even before Buster Posey retired in 2021, and according to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, they were going to be “aggressive” and “really active” in free agency this offseason. The obvious target to fill their need for a power-hitting outfielder: Aaron Judge, who grew up rooting for the Giants. When he instead decided to return to the Yankees, and with Turner and Bogaerts off the board, the Giants and Correa were … well, maybe not exactly a perfect fit, but the Giants had money to burn and Correa wanted the biggest contract he could get. The two sides agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract, blowing past the Giants’ previous record contract for a free agent, Johnny Cueto‘s $130 million deal.
And then Correa failed his physical.
How it rocked baseball: A week after agreeing to terms with Correa, the Giants were finally set to introduce Correa for his official signing press conference — only to back out at the last minute over concerns about an old ankle injury that required surgery when Correa was in the minor leagues in 2014. Agent Scott Boras was not happy.
“You’re talking about a player who has played eight major league seasons,” Boras said. “There are things in his medical record that happened decades ago. These are all speculative dynamics. Every team has a right to go through things and evaluate things. The key thing is, we gave [the Giants] medical reports at the time. They still wanted to sign the player and negotiated with the player.”
Nobody could remember something like this happening before, certainly not so late in the process. Zaidi termed it a “difference of opinion” on Correa’s medicals. One of the top free agents headed back into free agency.
Dominoes: With most of the top free agents already signed and delivered, the Giants were left scrambling for the second-tier players. They ended up parceling out their money to outfielders Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto and pitchers Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea, but they lost Rodon to the Yankees and finished the offseason with no Judge and no Correa.
For Correa, though, the pivot seemed quick, as in the hours after the deal with the Giants fell apart, it appeared he had found a new landing place courtesy of Steve Cohen and the Mets. Little did we know at the time, but this saga was only just getting started.
The Yankees land an ace — if he can stay healthy
Date of the deal: Dec. 15: Yankees sign Carlos Rodon for six years, $162 million
What it means for the Yankees: With Rodon joining a pitching corps of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, Frankie Montas and others, New York had put together the best on-paper rotation in MLB’s hot stove season. Rodon, 30, is coming off two straight dominant seasons in two different leagues, both of which landed him in the top six of postseason Cy Young balloting. This came on the heels of years of injury-related frustration for the lefty who was the third pick of the 2014 draft. Sure, it was a $162 million commitment but, hey, Rodon is really good and it’s the Yankees.
How it rocked baseball: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel forecasted a $130 million outlay for Rodon, so the value of his deal was more than we thought he would get (only deGrom, who got $185 million from Texas, received more as a pitcher). But the market for him was robust — after deGrom signed, teams hoping to make the splashiest of splashes with rotation upgrades were down to Rodon. After this, it was a whole lot of Plan Bs. For the Yankees, it meant ever more injury risk for an expensive rotation full of that quality. And indeed, they’ll be without Montas for a long time because of a shoulder injury. Rodon — yeah, he’s hurt as well, but it doesn’t appear to be serious, though it will delay his Yankees debut.
Dominoes: It’s hard to say. Rodon’s deal was the last massive free agent deal of the offseason to go to a pitcher. Minnesota was an oft-mentioned possibility for Rodon and so perhaps the Twins, at the time, were the club most frustrated at Rodon landing with the Yankees. As it turned out, though, if the Twins had indeed met this market price for Rodon’s services, their pivot back to Correa — from whom they spent big after his earlier deals fell through — might not have been possible.
A homegrown Braves star becomes the new face of the Cubs
Date of deal: Dec. 17: Cubs sign Dansby Swanson for seven years, $177 million
What it means for the Cubs: Chicago should have a solid double-play combo for at least the next half-decade after the signing of Swanson moved Nico Hoerner back to second base, where he was a Gold Glove finalist in 2020. Both players are strong in the field and provide offensive value in different ways: Hoerner makes contact, Swanson hits for power.
They are now the centerpieces of the franchise, with Swanson’s decision to come to Chicago giving credence to the team’s latest rebuilding efforts. He has made it known he wants to win, but the Cubs might not be ready for prime time just yet — it’s hard to imagine this is the year that Chicago makes the leap into the group of elite teams. With Swanson on the roster, though, a winning season became a much more attainable goal.
The move also shows that the big-market Cubs are coming out of their rebuild and willing to spend again. That they landed a star who has been part of championship-level teams in Atlanta this quickly signals that Chicago will continue to be a destination for top free agents.
How it rocked baseball: For two consecutive offseasons, star shortstops have been at the top of free agent rankings.
Last year, it was Seager, Semien, Correa, Trevor Story and Javier Baez. This year, Turner, Bogaerts and Swanson joined the mix, along with Correa, who hit free agency again.
The Cubs’ signing of Swanson signaled that the two-winter carousel ride was finally coming to an end, with Chicago one of the big spenders that had now solidified the position for years to come. All in all, more than nearly $1.75 billion was handed out to this group — not bad for a position that not that long ago was thought of as a place for light-hitting, glove-first players.
Dominoes: Not only had the game of shortstop dominoes now come to an end, but the entire top of the free agent class had found homes after Swanson joined the Cubs. This move capped an unprecedented two weeks of spending, starting with deGrom’s contract just before the winter meetings and culminating with Swanson’s deal.
The winners of free agency had won, the losers were left looking for smaller deals and all of the biggest contracts were in place before the calendar turned to 2023 — or so we thought at the time.
Hey, the Dodgers and Red Sox finally did something
Date of the deal: Dec. 17: Dodgers sign J.D. Martinez for one year, $10 million | Dec. 18: Red Sox sign Justin Turner for two years, $22 million
What it means for the Red Sox and Dodgers: Justin Turner with the Red Sox and J.D. Martinez with the Dodgers? Man, free agency can get weird. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has been a better hitter (123 OPS+ to 118 OPS+) over more plate appearances (1,230 to 1,144). They both got in the neighborhood of $10 million in annual value, but Turner, nearly three years older, got two years from Boston while Martinez’s L.A. pact is for one year. The Dodgers will use Martinez at DH, meaning that Max Muncy will be at the hot corner — a weak spot for the Dodgers, at least on defense — and L.A. will hope for the best. Turner will also be DHing, only for the Red Sox — a team that needed a DH but not a third baseman, because they have Devers.
How it rocked baseball: Really, how does this happen? This might have rocked the two markets more than all of baseball — but these two players were beloved on their former teams. They did great things and won rings. It felt more like a “Freaky Friday” situation: If they were traded for each other before Opening Day, would anybody remember that they were free agents to begin with?
Dominoes: Well, the Dodgers, who had Justin Turner at third base and lots of options for DH, now have a shaky glove at third base and a more or less everyday DH in Martinez. The Red Sox, who had an everyday DH in Martinez and a star third baseman in Devers, now have an everyday-ish DH in Turner and a star third baseman in Devers. Why?
To say that fans of these two teams were frustrated with the offseason plans of their front offices would be an understatement, and these moves didn’t exactly change those sentiments. In the case of the Dodgers, the biggest fallout to an offseason without a big splash is that the top of the National League is now much more open than in recent years with L.A. likely to take a step back and other NL heavyweights positioned to pounce.
Correa to the Giants … Correa to the Mets … OK, now this is getting awkward
Date of (non-)deal: Dec. 24: Mets, Carlos Correa ‘working through’ medical issue
What it meant for the Mets: While most of the top-spending teams already had a shortstop, the Mets had another idea: They would sign Correa and play him at third base alongside Francisco Lindor. It didn’t matter that they already had Eduardo Escobar and top prospect Brett Baty. Hours after Correa’s deal with the Giants fell apart and with owner Cohen negotiating the deal while vacationing in Hawaii, the Mets and Correa agreed to a 12-year, $315 million deal that would push the Mets’ payroll to nearly $500 million including tax penalties — but give them a lineup featuring an All-Star infield of Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor and Correa.
“We needed one more thing, and this is it,” Cohen told the New York Post.
It all seemed like such a perfect fit.
How it rocked baseball: Five. Hundred. Million.
Dominoes: In the collective bargaining agreement signed before the 2022 season, a third level of luxury tax had been implemented — the so-called “Cohen Tax,” as other owners were already wary of how Cohen might spend. The players had bet that Cohen wouldn’t let a little tax interfere with his desire to win a World Series. The players were right. After the Correa deal, the Mets were about $90 million above the third level.
But then the official announcement of the signing dragged on … and on … and three weeks later, there was no deal. The Mets had the same concerns with Correa’s medical reports as the Giants. And suddenly, this match made in Flushing went down the drain.
Correa to the Giants … Correa to the Mets … Correa to the Twins — and the saga is finally resolved
Date of deal: Jan. 10: Twins sign Carlos Correa for six years, $200 million
What it means for the Twins: The Twins had been a surprising landing spot for Correa after his first trip into free agency after 2021, in a deal that included an opt-out, which Correa exercised. The Twins wanted Correa back, but they knew they couldn’t offer a deal that matched the Giants or Mets. Their options at shortstop at this point included moving Jorge Polanco from second base or the recently acquired Kyle Farmer — so let’s just say having Correa fall back into their laps was a very good thing in Minnesota. While they’re probably not a World Series contender, the Twins will hope to emerge from a three-team race in the AL Central.
How it rocked baseball: It certainly capped the wildest, most adventurous free agent trek in history. The final deal guarantees Correa $200 million over six years and includes four years of options that could make it a 10-year, $270 million deal, a nice pick-up for the Twins at a discount compared to Correa’s original $350 million deal with the Giants — if he stays healthy, of course.
Dominoes: For the rest of this offseason? Not many. By this point, Correa’s options were limited, and the Twins were the only real fit. The Dodgers weren’t spending, the Yankees had multiple shortstop prospects (including Anthony Volpe, who will start in the majors), the Orioles have Gunnar Henderson already in the majors, the Mariners were content with J.P. Crawford and the Braves were banking on Vaughn Grissom.
But the fallout of the Carlos Correa saga goes far beyond what moves followed, or even just MLB free agency. Will anyone ever be as certain that a mega-contract in any sport will be completed until the ink on the contract is actually dry again? Correa’s name now goes down as a reminder of every twist and turn that made this MLB offseason unforgettable.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — An economist testified in Michael Jordan’s federal antitrust trial against NASCAR that the racing series owes a combined $364.7 million in damages to the two teams suing it over a revenue-sharing dispute.
Edward Snyder, a professor of economics who worked in the antitrust division of the Department of Justice and has testified in more than 30 cases, including “Deflategate” involving the NFL’s New England Patriots, testified on Monday. He gave three specific reasons NASCAR is a monopoly participating in anticompetitive business practices.
Using a complex formula applied to profits, a reduction in market revenue, and lost revenue to 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports from 2021-24, Snyder came up with his amount of damages owed. Snyder applied a 45% of revenue sharing he alleged Formula 1 gives to its teams in his calculations; Snyder found that NASCAR’s revenue-sharing model when its charter system began in 2016 gave only 25% to the teams.
The suit is about the 2025 charter agreement, which was presented to teams on a Friday in September 2024 with a same-day deadline to sign the 112-page document. The charter offer came after more than two years of bitter negotiations between NASCAR and its teams, who have called the agreement “a take-it-or-leave-it” ultimatum that they signed with “a gun to their head.”
A charter is similar to the franchise model in other sports, but in NASCAR it guarantees 36 teams spots in the 40-car field, as well as specific revenue.
Jordan and three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin for 23XI, along with Front Row Motorsports and owner Bob Jenkins, were the only two teams out of 15 to refuse the new charter agreement.
Snyder’s evaluations found NASCAR was in fact violating antitrust laws in that the privately owned racing series controls all bargaining because “teams don’t have anywhere else to sell their services.” Snyder said NASCAR controls “the tracks, the teams and the cars.”
Snyder repeatedly cited exclusivity agreements NASCAR entered into with racetracks after the charter system began. The agreements prevent tracks that host NASCAR from holding events with rival racing series. Prior to the long-term agreements, NASCAR operated on one-year contracts with its host racetracks.
The Florida-based France family founded NASCAR in 1948 and, along with Speedway Motorsports, owns almost all the tracks on the top Cup Series schedule. Snyder’s belief is that NASCAR entered into exclusivity agreements with tracks to stave off any threats of a breakaway startup series. In doing so, he said it eliminated teams’ ability to race stock cars anywhere else, forced them to accept revenue-sharing agreements that are below market value, and damaged their overall evaluations.
Snyder did his calculations for both teams based on each having two charters — each purchased a third charter in late 2024 — and found 23XI is owed $215.8 million while Front Row is owed $148.9 million. Based on his calculations, Snyder determined NASCAR shorted 36 chartered teams $1.06 billion from 2021-24.
Snyder noted NASCAR had $2.2 billion in assets, an equity value of $5 billion and an investment-grade credit rating — which Snyder believes positions the France family to be able to pivot and adjust to any threats of a rival series the way the PGA did in response to the LIV Golf league. The PGA, Snyder testified, “got creative” in bringing in new revenue to pay to its golfers to prevent their defections.
Snyder also testified NASCAR had $250 million in annual earnings from 2021-24 and the France family took $400 million in distributions during that period.
NASCAR contends Snyder’s estimations are wrong, that the 45% F1 model he used is not correct, and its own two experts “take serious issue” with Snyder’s findings. Defense attorney Lawrence Buterman asked Snyder his opinion on NASCAR’s upcoming expert witnesses and Snyder said they were two of the best economists in the world.
Snyder testified for almost the entirety of Monday’s session — the sixth day of the trial — and will continue on Tuesday. The snail’s pace has agitated U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell, who heard arguments 30 minutes early Monday morning because he was annoyed that objections had been submitted at 2:55 a.m. and then 6:50 a.m.
He needed an hour to get through the rulings, and testimony resumed 30 minutes behind schedule. When the day concluded, he asked the nine-person jury if they were willing to serve an hour longer each day the rest of the week in an effort to avoid a third full week of trial. He all said all motions must be filed by 10 p.m. each evening moving forward.
Bell wants plaintiff attorney Jeffrey Kessler to conclude his case by the end of Tuesday, but Kessler told him he still plans to call NASCAR chairman Jim France, NASCAR commissioner Steve Phelps and Hall of Fame team owner Richard Childress, who was the subject of derogatory text messages amongst NASCAR leadership and has said he’s considering legal action.
NASCAR has a list of 16 potential witnesses and Bell said he wanted the first one on the stand before Tuesday’s session concludes.
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Adam Rittenberg
The 12-team College Football Playoff is no longer new, but there are some different elements to consider when beginning the intrepid task of predicting every postseason game the day the pairings are announced.
For starters, there are more justifiably aggrieved teams at being left out of the 12-team CFP. Among them: Vanderbilt (10-2), BYU (11-2), Texas (9-3) and, of course, Notre Dame (10-2), which had the most bitter Sunday following the selections.
The annual coaching carousel always impacts the postseason, but this year has seen moves that have impacted the CFP unlike ever before. Ole Miss will play without former coach Lane Kiffin, while new coach Pete Golding will make his debut at the helm in the biggest game in team history. Jon Sumrall, meanwhile, will lead Tulane into its first CFP before focusing fully on his new job at Florida. James Madison is a surprise inclusion to the CFP, and coach Bob Chesney will lead the Dukes before departing for UCLA.
Several CFP teams also have coordinators moving on to head-coaching roles, including Oregon‘s Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal), and Ohio State‘s Brian Hartline (South Florida). There are also the standard uncertainties around bowl games, including NFL draft declarations and transfer announcements, which haven’t kicked into high gear yet since the portal doesn’t open until January. All this makes predicting the bowl/CFP outcomes right after the pairings are revealed kind of insane, but also fun!
Don’t mortgage your house on these, but if they hit, I will accept any and all gifts and congratulations. Without further ado, from Bowl Predictions HQ in downtown Indianapolis, here are the breakdowns and picks for every college football postseason game.
Ready, set, bowl!
All times ET.
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CFP games | Title game | Bowl schedule
Friday, Dec. 19
CFP first-round game
Alabama Crimson Tide at Oklahoma Sooners
Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman, Oklahoma)
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
The CFP begins with a rematch of a game played barely a month earlier at Bryant-Denny Stadium. I was there and came away impressed by Oklahoma’s defensive talent and layered scheme, which prevailed in a 23-21 victory. Alabama was clearly worn down toward the end of the season, not looking impressive in its victory at Auburn, and being held scoreless for more than 47 minutes against Georgia in the SEC championship. But teams that squeak into the CFP can gain some momentum from being granted a second life, and despite the head-to-head outcome in Tuscaloosa, Alabama still outgained Oklahoma 406-212 and had 11 more first downs. Quarterback Ty Simpson has a chance to reset and reclaim his accuracy, and running back Jam Miller will likely return for the CFP. Coach Kalen DeBoer and the Tide are no strangers to this stage, and they’ll find a way to win a close one in Norman.
Prediction: Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Saturday, Dec. 20
CFP first-round game
Miami Hurricanes at Texas A&M Aggies
Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
Noon, ABC, ESPN
The Hurricanes can exhale after making it into the field over Notre Dame, which they beat in the season opener. Miami is one of the nation’s most talented teams. Now the Hurricanes must draw from making their first CFP appearance against another CFP newcomer in Texas A&M, which is coming off its first loss of the season. Kyle Field is always electric and should help Texas A&M in its first CFP game, but Miami should benefit from the earlier start time, rather than having to deal with the 12th Man at night. Both teams have tremendous talent at wide receiver and playmaking quarterbacks in Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Carson Beck (Miami). But Miami’s improved defense under coordinator Corey Hetherman should provide the Canes an edge in this game, especially after Reed has thrown six interceptions in his past five games. The Hurricanes force a late takeaway and get out of Aggieland with a win.
Prediction: Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
CFP first-round game
Tulane Green Wave at Ole Miss Rebels
Vaught Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Mississippi)
3:30 p.m., TNT
A first-round rematch of a game Ole Miss won by 35 points back on Sept. 20 is less than ideal, but the changed circumstances around both programs add some intrigue. How will Ole Miss perform without Kiffin at the controls? Golding is a popular replacement, but he has never led this team and will be facing a future SEC competitor in Sumrall. Tulane defended North Texas extremely well in the American Conference championship game, forcing five turnovers and holding the Mean Green to seven points until the final minute of the third quarter. Golding’s defense gave Tulane problems in the first matchup, as quarterback Jake Retzlaff completed only 5 of 17 passes for 56 yards before being benched. Tulane struggled to defend Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who had 307 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 112 rushing yards in the first meeting. Sumrall’s team will play a bit better this time, but Ole Miss overcomes a slow start to pull away behind Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
CFP first-round game
James Madison Dukes at Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon)
7:30 p.m., TNT
A year ago, the Ducks went 13-0 and received a very tough CFP draw, which resulted in a fast and humbling exit in the Rose Bowl. Oregon will be playing earlier in this year’s playoff, and coach Dan Lanning’s team is heavily favored to advance against James Madison, the Sun Belt champion. Although the Dukes are well-coached and won their final 11 games, they did so in a weaker-than-normal Sun Belt and lost at Louisville by 14 points, while also surviving a home scare against Washington State. Oregon needs no motivation after losing big to Ohio State in last season’s CFP. The Ducks should finally be healthy again at wide receiver, and quarterback Dante Moore played very well down the stretch. How Stein and Lupoi function in their dual roles is worth watching, but Oregon shouldn’t have too much trouble with JMU at thunderous Autzen Stadium.
Prediction: Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The quarters kick off with a good one, as Ohio State returns to the building where it won a CFP semifinal matchup in last season’s national title run. Despite the disappointment of the Big Ten championship game, coach Ryan Day and his team can draw upon their playoff success from last season and begin the quest to repeat. A key matchup will be Ohio State’s offensive line (which allowed five sacks to Indiana after surrendering six during the entire regular season) facing a talented Miami defensive front led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. The Buckeyes will need to run the ball effectively, especially in short-yardage situations. But they can also lean on their defense to fluster Beck and the Hurricanes a bit. Expect big games from Arvell Reese, Caden Curry and others as Ohio State moves on.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
The best teams money can buy? Let’s freaking go. No two programs seem to get more flak for what they invest in their rosters than Oregon (hello, Phil Knight) and Texas Tech (howdy, Cody Campbell). But the Red Raiders and Ducks have earned their way to this stage and should deliver an incredible matchup in South Florida. Oregon has the quarterback edge with Dante Moore, who should have more wide receivers at his disposal as he faces a top-five defense in Texas Tech. The matchup of Oregon’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s defensive front should be epic. Even though Oregon has CFP experience, Texas Tech should be able to ride Shiel Wood’s defense and just enough offense to get the W.
Prediction: Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Indiana had barely capped off the most magical night in recent program history before coach Curt Cignetti turned his attention toward preparing (and humbling) his team before the CFP. The Hoosiers are AP No. 1 for the first time and riding high from their first outright Big Ten title since 1945. But going undefeated didn’t matter for Oregon in last season’s Rose Bowl, and Indiana must lock in for an opponent that is used to the biggest of stages. Yes, it’s Alabama, but the Hoosiers have the better quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, a much better running game with multiple options and a defense that can match up with the Tide, especially after the Ohio State win. Alabama will need some type of offensive balance to win this one, and I don’t see it happening against coordinator Bryant Haines’ ferocious defense. Indiana gets two touchdown passes from Mendoza and advances.
Prediction: Indiana 24, Alabama 16
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
The quarterfinals end with an SEC rematch in the Big Easy, as coach Kirby Smart tries to avoid a repeat of last season’s Sugar Bowl, when Georgia had just 10 points and 62 rushing yards in a loss to Notre Dame. Anyone think Kiffin will make the trip over from Baton Rouge to watch his former team? Quarterback Gunner Stockton was making his first career start in place of the injured Beck and should be much more comfortable this time around. Stockton had his best game of the season Oct. 18 against Ole Miss, completing 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 43-35 win. Georgia also is playing some of its best football collectively during the stretch run, especially a defense that struggled at times against Chambliss in the first meeting. I love this Ole Miss team, but I don’t see Georgia exiting the playoff so soon again.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The best matchup of the entire CFP could come in the desert, featuring teams that have combined for three of the past four national championships. Ohio State and Georgia delivered a classic in the 2022 national semifinal, a game the Buckeyes largely controlled before falling 42-41 in Atlanta. Georgia has an experience edge at quarterback with Stockton over redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, but Ohio State’s wide receivers and overall defensive staff power could swing the game its way. I’m not expecting many points but Ohio State finds a few more, as kicker Jayden Fielding redeems himself after the Big Ten title game miss.
Prediction: Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Two of the nation’s best defenses will go at it in Atlanta with a spot in the national championship game on the line. The game also pits Mendoza, the FBS leader in touchdown passes, against arguably the nation’s top defender in Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Each scoring chance will be critical, as both defenses rank in the top five nationally in red zone touchdowns allowed. I could certainly see this going either way, but Indiana has a fairly substantial advantage at quarterback with Mendoza, and an underrated run game to provide balance. The Hoosiers move on to the natty.
Prediction: Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Shield your eyes, Paul Finebaum and Peter Burns, it’s an all-Big Ten national title game, featuring a rematch of the conference championship in Indianapolis. Mendoza will be playing in his hometown with a chance to cap a dream season on so many fronts for himself, his family and his Hoosiers team. But Ohio State will spoil the party in a game that will be a slightly higher-scoring version of what we saw at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jeremiah Smith, who grew up near Hard Rock Stadium, shows why he’s the best player in the sport with two second-half touchdown catches, as Ohio State repeats as national champion for the first time.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
The Bulldogs return to the Celebration Bowl for the second straight season and for the third time in five years, while Prairie View A&M makes its debut in the game under talented first-year coach Tremaine Jackson. South Carolina State quarterback William Atkins IV, who had 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions this season, faces a Prairie View A&M defense that allowed fewer than 10 points in five of its final seven games. The Panthers are coming in hot and win a close one behind the defense and dynamic wide receiver Jyzaiah Rockwell, who catches two touchdown passes.
Prediction: Prairie View A&M 27, South Carolina State 21
Bucked Up LA Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs. Washington Huskies
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
The Broncos didn’t return to the College Football Playoff, but they still found a way to win the Mountain West for the third consecutive season. Two years ago, I picked Boise State in this game but UCLA took down the Broncos even though coach Chip Kelly had one foot out the door. Washington is a young, talented and somewhat confounding team, but I like the Huskies to use the bowl as a springboard toward 2026. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. connects for two second-half touchdown passes as Washington pulls away late.
Prediction: Washington 37, Boise State 27
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Troy Trojans vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
The runners-up from the Conference USA (Jacksonville State) and Sun Belt (Troy) championship games meet in their home state for what should be a well-attended and fun environment in Montgomery. Troy held a second-half lead at Clemson and a really nice start to Sun Belt play, but its offense struggled to score late, including in the conference championship. Jacksonville State has been a bit more consistent and will ride running back Cam Cook, the MVP of C-USA with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, to a victory.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 24, Troy 20
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. South Florida Bulls
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Both teams had very strong seasons, taking down Power 4 opponents in Florida (South Florida) and Virginia Tech (Old Dominion). Both are also in some degree of flux. USF coach Alex Golesh left for Auburn and won’t be coaching the bowl game. Old Dominion standout quarterback Colton Joseph, a dynamic dual threat, is set to enter the transfer portal and won’t play in the bowl. South Florida has the talent edge here after spending a good chunk of the season in the AP Top 25. Both defenses are playing very well, as Old Dominion allowed a total of 26 points in its final four games. I’m going with South Florida in a somewhat lower-scoring game.
Prediction: South Florida 24, Old Dominion 17
68 Ventures Bowl
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Delaware Blue Hens
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
The game location certainly favors Louisiana, which makes its eighth consecutive bowl appearance and 13th since 2011, but is just 1-3 under coach Michael Desormeaux. Delaware, meanwhile, is going bowling in its first season as an FBS member. The Blue Hens have notable wins against UConn and Louisiana Tech but were pretty uneven this season, losing to Sam Houston on Nov. 15. The Ragin’ Cajuns won their final four games to get bowl-eligible, all by single digits, and will find a way in another tight one behind a balanced rushing attack.
Prediction: Louisiana 28, Delaware 24
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Missouri State Bears
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Coach Butch Jones leads Arkansas State into its third consecutive bowl game, and is 5-1 in his past six bowls. Missouri State, meanwhile, reached the postseason in its first year as an FBS member under promising coach Ryan Beard. Expect some points in this one, as the two defenses rank 105th (Arkansas State) and 109th (Missouri State) in SP+. Both teams have played a lot of one-score games, but Missouri State’s passing game will be the difference. Senior quarterback Jacob Clark has been very solid, and the Bears have five players with more than 420 receiving yards.
Prediction: Missouri State 34, Arkansas State 30
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
One of the top early bowl matchups features the Conference USA champ (Kennesaw State) and the MAC champ (Western Michigan), as well as two promising coaches to know in Jerry Mack and Lance Taylor. The best unit on the field is Western Michigan’s defense, as first-year coordinator Chris O’Leary has overseen a group that ranks 14th nationally in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed. Kennesaw State has been really good in close games and has a playmaker in quarterback Amari Odom, but WMU’s defense will carry the day.
Prediction: Western Michigan 28, Kennesaw State 20
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
The way these teams ended their regular seasons couldn’t have been more different. Memphis dropped its final three games and four of its final six after entering the AP Top 25 following a 6-0 start. Then, the Tigers lost coach Ryan Silverfield and others to Arkansas. NC State had a tough midseason stretch but won three of its final four games, including an upset of Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack haven’t won a bowl game since 2017 (Sun) and shouldn’t lack motivation in this one. Expect a big performance from quarterback CJ Bailey and the NC State offense.
Prediction: NC State 38, Memphis 27
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Washington State Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
The Cougars are the better team, as they put a scare into two CFP participants, Ole Miss and James Madison, and a CFP hopeful in Virginia, losing the three road games by a total of eight points. But Washington State last week was rocked by the departure of coach Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State after only one year on the Palouse. The Cougars were in a similar situation last year after coach Jake Dickert’s departure and lost the Holiday Bowl. Utah State had a nice road win against Fresno State, and played better defensively down the stretch. But I don’t expect the Cougars to splinter. They finish strong.
Prediction: Washington State 26, Utah State 20
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Toledo Rockets vs. Louisville Cardinals
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Louisville’s last trip to South Florida brought its best moment of the season, a 24-21 win against then-No. 2 Miami that put the Cardinals in the mix for the ACC title and a CFP spot. Those hopes quickly faded after a three-game ACC losing streak, but Louisville crushed rival Kentucky 41-0 in the regular-season finale, and can still finish with its third consecutive season of nine or more wins under coach Jeff Brohm. Toledo, meanwhile, lost longtime coach Jason Candle to UConn and defensive coordinator Vince Kehres to Syracuse. The Rockets’ path to success is through their defense, which ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (12.2 ppg). But Louisville should be engaged enough to finish things with a win.
Prediction: Louisville 27, Toledo 16
New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
The good news for Southern Miss is it returns to the postseason for the first time since 2022 after improving from 1-11 last year to seven wins this fall. The bad news: Coach Charles Huff is headed for Memphis after his lone season in Hattiesburg, creating some uncertainty entering this game. Western Kentucky has steady leadership with Tyson Helton, who is 4-2 in bowls and has won eight or more games in each of the past five seasons. The Hilltoppers have been a bit erratic on offense but can lean on their defense in this one.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, Southern Miss 21
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Despite falling short in the Mountain West championship game, UNLV can cap a strong first season under coach Dan Mullen with its 11th win, matching last year’s Rebels and the 1984 squad for the most in team history. Ohio also had a solid season at 8-4, but the team was rocked by coach Brian Smith being placed on leave Dec. 1 with no details provided. The quarterback matchup of UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea and Ohio’s Parker Navarro should be fun, but given the uncertainty around Ohio, the Rebels get the win.
Prediction: UNLV 33, Ohio 24
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
California Golden Bears vs. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
What a fun matchup on the island, as former Hawai’i coach Nick Rolovich, leading Cal on an interim basis, faces his former team, led by record-setting Hawai’i quarterback Timmy Chang, who has done an outstanding job this season. It’s also a homecoming for Cal standout freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, an Ewa Beach native who faces a Hawai’i defense that allowed a total of 13 points in its final two regular-season wins (both at home). Will the Rainbow Warriors open the season with a win against Stanford and close with a win over Cal? They will, thanks to a last-minute field goal from the “Tokyo Toe,” Kansei Matsuzawa.
Prediction: Hawai’i 30, Cal 28
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Some Big Ten teams wouldn’t get up for a post-Christmas bowl visit to Detroit and a MAC opponent, but not Northwestern. The Wildcats were elated to get bowl-eligible with a dramatic win over Minnesota at Wrigley Field, and have performed well in the postseason, winning five consecutive bowls, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl under coach David Braun. Central Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time since 2021 and should have the crowd edge at Ford Field. But the Chippewas really struggled against Power 4 opponents Pitt (45-17) and Michigan (63-3), and Northwestern went through a much tougher schedule.
Prediction: Northwestern 28, Central Michigan 14
Rate Bowl
New Mexico Lobos vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
When it comes to outsized coaching personalities, few bowl matchups will deliver better than Jason Eck (New Mexico) and P.J. Fleck (Minnesota). Eck, a former Wisconsin lineman who is familiar with Minnesota from his playing days, won Mountain West Coach of the Year honors in his debut season with New Mexico, which tied for first in the league and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1934. The Lobos haven’t played in a bowl outside their home state since 2004, but will be well-represented in Phoenix. My lean is New Mexico, but Fleck is excellent in bowls, going 6-0 at Minnesota with a Rate Bowl victory in 2021. Tough call here, but I’m riding with the Lobos, who win their 10th game for the first time since 1982.
Prediction: New Mexico 24, Minnesota 20
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Florida International Panthers vs. UTSA Roadrunners
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
The vibes certainly seem better on the Florida International side. FIU won its final four games, including a triumph over Jacksonville State, to secure bowl eligibility under first-year coach Willie Simmons, who won the Celebration Bowl in 2023 at Florida A&M. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor, meanwhile, hasn’t looked happy this season, as the Roadrunners haven’t harnessed the momentum from some nice home wins over Tulane and East Carolina. UTSA has the talent edge with quarterback Owen McCown and others, but will it be truly motivated? I say yes.
Prediction: UTSA 37, Florida International 24
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Pitt has been quite good away from home this season, sweeping its ACC road schedule at 4-0 and enduring its only stumble against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. The Panthers seemingly have a bright future with quarterback Mason Heintschel, running back Ja’Kyrian Turner and others set to return in 2026. East Carolina had a nice season under coach Blake Harrell, sustaining its only losses against bowl teams (NC State, BYU, Tulane, UTSA). Quarterback Katin Houser blossomed for ECU with 3,300 passing yards, and will challenge Pitt’s defense. But the Panthers have a bit too much firepower in this one.
Prediction: Pitt 34, East Carolina 28
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Neither team entered the 2025 season expecting to finish it out in a baseball stadium in the Bronx, although at least Dabo Swinney is a Yankees fan. Penn State made a midseason coaching change, while Swinney has hinted at significant adjustments for the way his program operates. Both teams finished strong, though, as Clemson swept its final four games, and Penn State claimed its final three under interim coach Terry Smith, who will remain on staff with new coach Matt Campbell. Opt-outs likely will factor into this matchup, given the NFL hopefuls on both teams. The location favors Penn State, which will play hard for Smith and win a low-scoring contest.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Clemson 16
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
UConn Huskies vs. Army Black Knights
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
For the first time in the brief life of the Fenway Bowl, two teams based in the Northeast will meet at the iconic baseball venue. UConn aims for its second straight win in the game, and its first 10-win season, and will be led by interim coach Gordon Sammis, the team’s offensive coordinator, following Jim Mora’s departure to Colorado State. Army had an often-frustrating season, filled with close games, but the Black Knights finally started winning some down the stretch and will make things challenging on UConn standout Joe Fagano (3,441 pass yards, 28 touchdowns, 1 interception). But Fagano will do enough as UConn makes history.
Prediction: UConn 31, Army 23
Pop-Tarts Bowl
BYU Cougars vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
America’s favorite newer bowl game features a really fun matchup for line-of-scrimmage enthusiasts. Will motivation be a concern? BYU felt it had a playoff-worthy profile, while Georgia Tech seemingly had a CFP path before losing three of its final four regular-season games. Coaches Kalani Sitake (BYU) and Brent Key (Georgia Tech) are true believers in physical play and out-toughing your opponent. Both teams feature talented running quarterbacks in Haynes King, who is playing his final college game, and Bear Bachmeier, a true freshman with 11 rushing touchdowns. BYU has a pretty significant advantage on defense, though. Star linebacker Jack Kelly and his teammates get it done.
Prediction: BYU 29, Georgia Tech 21
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
As a child of the ’90s who considers “The Chronic” one of the best-produced albums ever, I’m not picking against a team called the Bulldogs in the Snoop Dogg Bowl. Not happening! Fresno State thrives in the postseason, winning five of its past six bowl games, and first-year coach Matt Entz won two FCS national championships at North Dakota State. To be fair, Miami won this bowl game last year, and coach Chuck Martin’s teams are always at the line of scrimmage. But Fresno State is pretty stingy on defense and has some stars, such as cornerback Simeon Harris and lineman Finn Claypool. Fresno State takes this one.
Prediction: Fresno State 24, Miami (Ohio) 17
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
North Texas Mean Green vs. San Diego State Aztecs
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
This game could come down to which team responds better to recent disappointments. North Texas lost out on a CFP berth after falling to Tulane in the AAC title game. Coach Eric Morris is moving on to Oklahoma State, and North Texas’ roster situation will be worth monitoring. Standout quarterback Drew Mestemaker made his first career start in North Texas’ last bowl game, passing for 393 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in a loss to Texas State. San Diego State returns to the same stadium where it lost its regular-season finale to New Mexico, costing itself a shot at the Mountain West title game. The matchup features a top-five scoring defense in San Diego State (12.6 ppg) against the nation’s top scoring offense in North Texas (44.8 ppg). I’ll go with defense in a tight one.
Prediction: San Diego State 31, North Texas 28
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Missouri Tigers
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Virginia hasn’t really been in this position before, having to rebound from the disappointment of losing out on its first CFP opportunity. Coach Tony Elliott must rally his team as a good opportunity awaits to finish things out with a team-record 11th victory. Missouri’s four losses came against top-10 opponents at the time, and the Tigers have one of the nation’s best running backs in Ahmad Hardy, who has 1,560 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in his first season as a Tiger. Coach Eliah Drinkwitz has won his past two bowl games with Missouri and should get a third, as the Tigers win a lower-scoring game.
Prediction: Missouri 26, Virginia 19
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
LSU Tigers vs. Houston Cougars
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
An LSU season that began with national championship aspirations ends with a quasi-road game against Houston in the Texas Bowl, which the Tigers were in — and lost — the last time they had a midseason coaching change in 2021. Houston took a big step in coach Willie Fritz’s second season, improving its win total from four to nine. The game’s key matchup could be LSU’s defense, which has been very good and will remain under the direction of coordinator Blake Baker, facing Conner Weigman, the former Texas A&M quarterback who had 2,475 passing yards and 21 touchdowns for the Cougars this fall. Ultimately, location and motivation swing the arrow toward Houston, which gets its 10th win and evens the all-time series with LSU at 2-2.
Prediction: Houston 23, LSU 17
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
App State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Kudos to Appalachian State, which said yes when many others did not, and gave Georgia Southern an opponent to close out the season. These Sun Belt teams have already played, which isn’t ideal, but their first meeting delivered some late drama before Georgia Southern prevailed 25-23. Georgia Southern’s last four wins all came by seven points or fewer, while Appalachian State lost four games by eight points or fewer. Neither team is particularly strong on defense, but Georgia Southern boasts star power on offense with wide receiver Camden Brown, who has 1,049 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, and adds to those totals in a win.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 37, Appalachian State 31
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Coach Sonny Cumbie’s Bulldogs quietly rebounded nicely this fall, ensuring their first winning season since 2019. They also will be playing just 70 miles from campus and will have a significant crowd advantage, especially against a Coastal Carolina program going through a coaching change after Tim Beck’s firing. Louisiana Tech’s offense has had a few no-shows this season, but scored a total of 76 points in its past two games and has a deep and balanced rushing contingent with four ball carriers eclipsing 450 yards.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 35, Coastal Carolina 24
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
There will be plenty of orange in Nissan Stadium, although much of it won’t be cheering for Illinois, which caps a season that began with CFP hopes, was sidetracked sharply with a 53-point loss at Indiana but still ended with wins in three of the final four regular-season contests. Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer started his career in the SEC at Ole Miss and can finish it against an SEC opponent in Tennessee, which pursued him as a transfer target this spring after Nico Iamaleava‘s exit to UCLA. The Vols never really recovered from their early loss to Georgia and have much to sort out on defense, which ranks 91st nationally in points allowed. Expect a lot of scoring in this one, but Tennessee prevails behind quarterback Joey Aguilar.
Prediction: Tennessee 37, Illinois 30
Valero Alamo Bowl
USC Trojans vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Placing too much emphasis on non-CFP bowls can be tricky, but this one feels important for Lincoln Riley and USC. The Trojans clearly improved this season, despite once again falling short of the CFP. They bring in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class and should retain several key foundational players from this year’s roster. A road-like win against TCU would mean USC’s first 10-win season since 2022, and a likely top-15 finish. TCU can somewhat quietly finish with consecutive nine-win seasons. Opt-outs will be a storyline for USC with star wideout Makai Lemon and others not playing, but the Trojans should have enough to outlast the Horned Frogs.
Prediction: USC 37, TCU 30
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Vanderbilt lobbied aggressively for CFP inclusion, even though the team never entered serious consideration. Diego Pavia and the Commodores still can deliver a strong closing argument against an Iowa team led by the nation’s No. 8 scoring defense. Few players have transformed an entire program — the way it’s viewed, the way it sees itself — as much as Pavia at Vandy the past two seasons. Iowa will provide a nice test as the Hawkeyes pushed teams such as Indiana and Oregon, even in defeat. But Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense will be too much in this one, as the Commodores secure a once-unthinkable 11th win and a possible top-10 finish.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 34, Iowa 23
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
The 2025 ACC champions and 2024 Big 12 champions meet in one of college football’s most iconic stadiums, for a Devils vs. Devils clash. Although Duke became the surprise ACC winner, it also seemingly underachieved this season, especially because quarterback Darian Mensah delivered on the hype with 3,646 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions. ASU will counter with quarterback Jeff Sims, who began his career at Georgia Tech before a challenging journey that culminated with a solid finish. The Sun Devils will need a strong defensive effort to slow down Mensah.
Prediction: Duke 35, Arizona State 31
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
The only question here is Texas’ motivation level, after missing out on the CFP for the first time since 2022, despite beating two playoff participants in No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 8 Oklahoma, as well as No. 14 Vanderbilt. The Longhorns have a much better profile than Michigan, which lost by double digits to the best three teams it faced and didn’t take advantage of a favorable schedule in quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s freshman season. Michigan capped 2024 with a surprise bowl win against an SEC opponent, but I really don’t see it happening again. Arch Manning accounts for three touchdowns, and Texas shuts down Underwood and U-M.
Prediction: Texas 28, Michigan 20
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Utah Utes
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
As Kyle Whittingham’s career winds down, a bowl win would be a fitting send-off for the future Hall of Fame coach. Whittingham dominated the postseason earlier in his career (11-1 in first 12 bowl games) but has struggled lately (five straight losses, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl). The Utes still should handle a Nebraska team that seems very much in flux, with its roster and coaching staff. Star running back Emmett Johnson is off to the NFL, and coach Matt Rhule has made several staff changes. Nebraska’s defense likely will have several problems with Devon Dampier. Utes roll.
Prediction: Utah 38, Nebraska 20
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Rice Owls vs. Texas State Bobcats
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
The team opt-outs opened an opportunity for Rice, which will complete its first season under coach Scott Abell and seek the team’s first bowl victory since 2014. Rice has wins over UConn and Louisiana but really struggled defensively late in the season, which Texas State should be able to expose. Quarterback Brad Jackson and wide receiver Beau Sparks connect for two touchdowns as the Bobcats pull away.
Prediction: Texas State 41, Rice 24
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
One of the last bowl games could be among the most fun, especially with the quarterback matchup of Navy’s Blake Horvath and Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby. Horvath has back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, while Sorsby finished the regular season with 2,800 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Cincinnati’s poor finish is a concern, though, as the Bearcats didn’t eclipse 24 points in any of their four losses. Navy doesn’t take these games lightly, having won six of its past seven bowl games, including last year’s Armed Forces Bowl. Mids get it done.
Prediction: Navy 27, Cincinnati 24
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
From Egg Bowl disappointment to Mayo Bowl mania, Mississippi State is in the postseason as a fill-in team. How will the Bulldogs capitalize on their surprise opportunity? Despite a 5-7 record, Mississippi State competed much better this season under coach Jeff Lebby, and has the offensive talent to give Wake Forest some problems. Wake isn’t afraid to grind out wins with its defense and run game, led by Demond Claiborne. Coach Jake Dickert has done a great job in his first season, and he’ll cap it with a mayo dump.
Prediction: Wake Forest 31, Mississippi State 27
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
A lot can happen to both rosters between now and Jan. 2, but this appears to be one of the more evenly matched pairings in bowl season. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has seen it all during his career, and can secure the team’s second 10-win season in three years — and just the fifth in team history — with a victory in San Diego. SMU will counter with Kevin Jennings, who seeks postseason redemption after his rough performance in last year’s CFP. Both teams can defend well, too, and boast standouts, such as safeties Dalton Johnson (Arizona) and Ahmaad Moses (SMU). A tough call here, but I’ll go with Arizona in a close one.
Prediction: Arizona 30, SMU 24
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Dan Wetzel
The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.
This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”
No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.
If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.
So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.
That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.
It’s a sign that it is.
A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.
At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.
It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.
Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.
Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.
College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.
Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).
The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.
The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.
Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.
If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.
Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.
The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.
Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).
Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.
Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.
Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.
The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.
A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.
Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.
Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.
Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.
Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.
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