Here are our 4 best stocks — and 4 worst stocks — of the first quarter
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 22, 2023 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The S&P 500 concluded a topsy-turvy — yet winning — first quarter of 2023 on Friday, overcoming a shock to the U.S. banking system in March to rise around 7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite proved to be the real standout, soaring nearly 17%. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, eked out a roughly 0.4% gain.
Stocks’ rip-roaring January eased in February, with all three major Wall Street indexes finishing lower in that month. Then came the failure of three U.S. banks within days of each other starting March 8, which spooked investors and further stoked recession fears. The S&P 500 briefly went negative for the year on March 15, a rough session defined by banking concerns spreading to Europe. But as the bank crisis stabilized over the past two weeks, the averages more than bounced back.
Here’s a look at the best and worst performers in the Club’s 36-stock portfolio for the first quarter, beginning with the top four gainers.
Tech stocks lead the way
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks at a press conference on Jan. 7, 2018.
MANDEL NGAN | AFP | Getty Images
Nvidia (NVDA) captured the first-quarter crown, soaring an astounding 90% over the three-month period. The chipmaker is not only the Club’s best-performing holding, but the biggest winner in the entire S&P 500.
- The driving force behind Nvidia’s move: artificial intelligence. The AI buzz sparked by ChatGPT in late 2022 intensified throughout the first quarter, so it’s no surprise that investors flocked toward the company whose technology — both on the hardware and software side — is at the heart of the trend.
- Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings, in late February, only enhanced its shine. It reported better-than-expected results along with strong forward guidance, including quarter-over-quarter growth fueled by its data center and gaming segments.
- The strength in data center captures the tangible impact AI adoption has for Nvidia. Investors also took solace in the fact the gaming inventory correction that plagued the company in recent quarters is largely in the rearview mirror at this point. That’s another important reason why Nvidia’s stock did so well.
Nvidia’s stock performance year to date.
Meta Platforms (META) finished in second place in both the Club’s portfolio and the S&P 500 overall, climbing 76.1%.
- CEO Mark Zuckerberg dubbed 2023 the “year of efficiency” for the Instagram and Facebook parent. So far, management’s actions have lived up to the billing. Meta in March announced plans to cut 10,000 jobs, on top of 11,000-plus layoffs disclosed in November.
- Crucially, the social media giant also lowered its 2023 expense outlook for the second time this year. It now stands between $86 billion to $92 billion, down from the $89 billion-to-$95 billion range issued in February.
- Meta’s initial 2023 expense guidance of $96 billion and $101 billion flabbergasted Wall Street in late October, causing a huge sell-off in the already downtrodden stock. Now, investors are thrilled that Zuckerberg and Co. got serious about better aligned expenses with slower revenue growth.
Meta’s stock performance year to date.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had the third-best performance in the first quarter, with shares advancing just over 51.3%.
- On Jan. 31, AMD CEO Lisa Su called the bottom in the chipmaker’s beleaguered PC business, saying the first quarter should be the trough with growth returning in the second quarter and into the rest of the year. That important statement gave investors confidence the chip inventory glut that crushed the company — and industry peers alike — last year was nearing an end.
- All signs also continue to point to AMD taking share from chief rival Intel (INTC) in the data center processor market. Su said AMD expects more share growth to occur in the third and fourth quarters, along with an overall improvement in the data center market.
- AMD also is seen as another winner in AI adoption, which has helped lift sentiment around the stock in the first quarter. In the second half of this year, AMD is expected to launch its next-generation supercomputer processor, which can be used for large language model applications. (ChatGPT is one example of a large language model, though it was trained on a Microsoft-built supercomputer that used Nvidia chips).
Advanced Micro Device’s stock performance year to date.
Checking in fourth was Salesforce (CRM), which saw its stock price climb 50.7% in the first quarter.
- The enterprise software maker’s stellar earnings report and guidance March 1 cemented investors’ warming attitude toward the company. Salesforce surged 11.5% the following day, one of its best single-session gains in a decade, because it was clear significant profitability improvements were underway.
- Salesforce shares were up more than 20% year to date before that earnings print, amid a broader rotation into the tech stocks that struggled in 2022, and on hopes that the five activist investors with stakes in the company could bring about margin expansion. The actual report confirmed CEO Marc Benioff is delivering on what investors care about — becoming more profitable and managing dilution with an enhanced buyback.
- Salesforce expects an adjusting operating margin of 27% in fiscal 2024, much better than analysts’ 22.8% estimate. Its share repurchase authorization increased to $20 billion, doubling the $10 billion buyback program first announced last year.
Salesforce’s year to date stock performance.
What’s the common denominator among the winners? These four stocks were beaten up last year as the Federal Reserve got aggressive with interest-rate hikes, crushing stocks with premium valuations and causing slowdowns in each business due to economic uncertainty. But as the calendar turned, investors realized they were far too negative on these tech stocks and regained appreciation of their secular growth stories.
Within this group, there are some additional overlaps. Some are self-help stories, such as Meta and Salesforce. Both companies put their cost structures under the microscope and found ways to reduce expenses. Layoffs are never easy, but the two companies did what was necessary to fix their business models. Stocks of other companies that “took their medicine” have done well in 2023 too.
Others top performers are business-cycle related. For both semiconductors companies, inventory gluts in the industries they sell into punished those stocks in 2022. For AMD, it was PC chips, and for Nvidia it was gaming GPUs. The gluts were so severe that it forced both companies to take big charges on their inventory. But after a couple of quarters of working the excess inventory down, both AMD and Nvidia expect the first quarter to represent the trough of those respective businesses.
First quarter laggards
A Halliburton oil well fielder works on a well head at a fracking rig site January 27, 2016 near Stillwater, Oklahoma.
J. Pat Carter | Getty Images
Halliburton (HAL) shares fell 19.6% in the first quarter, making the oilfield services firm the Club’s worst-performing stock in the period.
- Halliburton’s weakness is tied to factors outside the company’s control — specifically, the roughly 6% decline in West Texas Intermediate crude prices in the first quarter. Keep in mind Halliburton shares also soared 55% in the fourth quarter, so the stock entered the new year vulnerable to profit taking.
- Fundamentally, Halliburton offered investors a lot to like in the first three months of the year. In late January, it raised its dividend by a third to $0.16 per share and announced the resumption of its stock buyback program. It also reported better-than-expected fourth quarter numbers and a robust full-year outlook, with CEO Jeff Miller saying customer spending is expected to grow by at least 15% in 2023. He also indicated Halliburton continues to have pricing power.
Halliburton’s stock performance year to date.
Devon Energy (DVN) was second from the bottom, with shares falling 17.7% in the first quarter.
- Similar to Halliburton, the overall oil market weighed on Devon’s stock price in period.
- But unlike Halliburton, Devon in February rankled investors with its fourth-quarter results and 2023 outlook, which featured higher-than-expected capital expenditures and lower-than-anticipated production projections. That’s a double whammy of disappointment.
Devon Energy’s stock performance year to date.
The third-worst performing Club stock in the first quarter was Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which saw its stock price decline 12.3% over the three-month stretch.
- A broader rotation out of health-care stocks, one of 2022’s top sectors, contributed to Johnson & Johnson’s weakness in the first quarter. For context, the Club’s three other health stocks — Eli Lilly (LLY), Humana (HUM) and Danaher (DHR) — also ended the quarter in the red.
- However, concerns about J&J’s ongoing talc litigation resurfaced in the quarter following an unfavorable court ruling on the drugmaker’s strategy to resolve the claims. That ruling, handed down Jan. 30 by a U.S. appeals court, has proven to be an additional overhang on J&J shares.
- Despite the stock struggles, J&J’s most recent quarterly results, issued in late January, showed healthy growth and solid free cash flow generation.
Johnson & Johnson’s stock performance year to date.
Honeywell International (HON) rounds out our list as the fourth-worst performer in the first quarter, falling 10.8%.
- Honeywell’s strong 2022 did not extend to the first three months of this year. It didn’t take long for sentiment to sour on Honeywell, either. On Jan. 4, UBS double-downgraded the industrial conglomerate, taking its rating to sell from buy.
- It’s been tough sledding for the stock since, with Honeywell’s uninspiring fourth-quarter earnings print in early February unable to shake off the malaise. The company’s sizable aerospace unit remains especially well-positioned, but it’s not getting a ton of love from Wall Street.
- Compounding matters for Honeywell is an upcoming CEO transition, which was announced March 14. President and COO Vimal Kapur is set to replace Darius Adamczyk on June 1. Adamczyk will remain executive chairman.
Honeywell’s year to date stock performance.
What is the common denominator among the laggards? It’s pretty simple to see. These four stocks all outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin last year. The total return (including dividends) on Halliburton was 75% and Devon’s was 52%. Johnson & Johnson and Honeywell both delivered around 5% compared with the S&P 500’s total return of about minus 18%. As the old saying goes, one key to investing is buying low and selling high. That’s what the market did to a lot of stocks in the first quarter. It sold off what investors “hid in” last year to buy what got crushed and historically does better when there is light at the end of the Fed tightening cycle.
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Kubota says its new KATR farm tractor concept raises the bar in autonomous, zero-emission farming – and it looks like they’ve convinced others, too. The robot just won “Best of Innovation” at the CES Innovation Awards.
Built as a follow-up to last year’s New Agri Concept electric autonomous farm tractor, the new Kubota KATR is a first of its kind, compact, four-wheeled robot with a stable cargo deck platform and stability control features that allow it to conduct work in demanding off-road agricultural and construction work environments, even on extreme hills and slopes.
The KATR was named best in the Industrial Equipment and Machinery product category by a panel of industry expert judges, including media, designers, and engineers who reviewed submissions based on innovation, engineering, aesthetics, and design.
Kubota seems pretty proud of themselves – and rightly so. “We have a long-standing philosophy that our products must be technically excellent, be productive and enjoyable for our customers, and also ensure the sustainability of limited resources. Ultimately, our goal is to improve the quality of life for individuals and society,” said Brett McMickell, Kubota North America Chief Technology Officer. “Given the versatility of the KATR, it has a wide range of applications specifically designed to enhance productivity in the agriculture and construction sectors.”
The KATR is designed to be powertrain agnostic – meaning it can be configured with either an electric or combustion engine, “reflecting Kubota’s commitment to customer choice without compromise.” As shown, it offers a load capacity of approx. 285 lbs. (just under 130 kg) and can be operated either remotely or with an onboard controller.
The CES Innovation Awards program is owned and produced by CTA, the host and organizer of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), which is recognized worldwide for its innovation awards as it is the most influential tech event on a global stage. CES 2025 is set to run from January 7-10, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada – and, of course, we’ll be there (again).
Electrek’s Take
Population growth, while slowing, is still very much a thing that is happening – and fewer and fewer people seem to be willing to do the work of growing the food that more and more people need to eat and live.
Autonomous and remote operation technology like that found in Kubota’s latest concept farm tractors multiplies the efforts of the farmers that do show up for work every day, and the fact that it’s more sustainable from both a fuel perspective and a chemical perspective makes it a two-time winner in my book.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Kubota, via PR Newswire.
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We got to ride a pre-production model of a striking new e-bike/e-moped, the Owlet One, with lots of power in a small package.
We first met Owlet at Electrify Expo in Long Beach, CA, where we only had a couple minutes on its bike. But since the company is headquartered nearby in Los Angeles, they emailed us asking if we’d like a longer test ride, and delivered a bike to us for to spend a few hours on this time.
Just to set the stage for this ride: Owlet is a new brand, preparing to ship its first bike. So to start off, we rode a prototype, not the finished version. This means it may come with different features, and we’re not entirely sure when it will ship, either.
The first thing to notice about the Owlet One is its design, which certainly stands out immediately. The bike is made of aviation-grade aluminum, though is still quite hefty, tipping the scales at 84 lbs (but it felt even heavier in our hands).
On top of Owlet’s striking design, the bike is also somewhat of a unique shape and size. Despite offering a format that looks similar to an e-bike at first glance, it rides more like a small moped. This actually puts its 84lb weight into a different perspective – rather than being heavy for a bike, it can be thought of as light for a moped.
But photographs can’t encapsulate everything about the design of the Owlet, because it has one totally unique feature: an adjustable wheelbase.
This can be done by one person in under a minute, though requires a socket wrench and a small amount of elbow grease.
In practice, I found that the adjustable wheelbase probably won’t come up much for riding purposes. The longest wheelbase (or close to it) was the most comfortable and stable to me, and shorter wheelbases were a bit more of a novelty, especially on this powerful bike which can get a little squirrelly on the shorter settings.
Another issue is that it changes the angle of the kickstand, which means you can’t really use the kickstand outside of a narrow wheelbase range. The final bike will supposedly have a different kickstand design, but this will likely be an issue regardless of how it’s redesigned.
But it was good for making the bike small enough to fit into places you might not normally be able to fit a moped-style bike. Between its narrow handlebars and shrunk down to its smallest 44-inch-long setting, it fit into the back of both a Tesla Model Y and an Audi A3 wagon (both with seats down), but not quite into a Model 3 – which I’ve fit multiple normal-sized bikes into the back of, though with the front wheel removed. Though its hefty weight does mean it can be awkward to lift the bike in there in the first place.
And it’s got more power than you’d expect out of most e-bikes too. With a 750W motor (3000W peak), there’s plenty of get up and go, and plenty to keep you going even as you reach closer to its 30mph top speed. This top speed can be lowered through the bike’s computer, to fit your local regulations.
Speaking of regulations, the bike is officially categorized as a motorized scooter, rather than an actual e-bike, as it doesn’t have pedals. It’s in a similar category to electric kick scooters, so you need to have any class of driver’s license to ride it, though it can be used either on or off public roads (but check your area’s regulations for sidewalk use, helmet requirements, and so on).
The throttle we tested was a thumb throttle, though we would have preferred a twist throttle. The thumb throttle is just too twitchy, and on a bike with such peaky acceleration, it could get jumpy. This was especially true with shorter wheelbase settings. Owlet says there will be an option for a twist throttle when the bike ships, but we’d also like to see the software moderate acceleration on the very low end even with the thumb throttle.
And the bike is fully throttle-driven – there are no pedals, only pegs. Owlet plans to offer an option for pegs attached to the front to allow a different, more laid-back seating position.
I tested the bike with a few accessories I had laying around, but because of the Owlet’s unique design, not all of them would fit (the handlebar cupholder seen in some of my photos doesn’t come with the bike, for example, which has no bottle cage mount). You’ll probably want a backpack if you’re planning to carry things on this bike, rather than saddlebags or the like.
Owlet says the bike’s 1500Wh battery (made with 2170-format cells) can take you around 40-60 miles, and comes with a 350W charger for a ~5 hour charge. Based on our test ride, we think this range is reasonable or perhaps even conservative – but I’m also a pretty lightweight rider at 155lbs, and always remember that e-bike ranges vary widely depending on terrain and rider.
The seat has a very cool look to it and is comfortable to sit on, partially due to integrated seat suspension. The front fork also has 3.5 inches of suspension travel. I’d have liked for both suspensions to be a little looser, but that is again likely due to my relatively light weight.
All of this comes with a caveat: we rode a prototype here, not a final bike. So the bike was missing some final features, some features weren’t working (like the headlight), and so on. Owlet says that specifically the LCD and foot stands will be changed, but we imagine other tweaks are possible (we hope one of the LCD changes makes it easier to read with polarized sunglasses – it was a bit tough, which is true of many, but not all, bike computer screens).
Owlet also has plans for a future bike, the Owlet 2, which is more solidly in the moped category, with a less wild design and higher range and top speed. Owlet shared an early prototype fact sheet with us, but given the One is already a bit of a ways out from delivery, don’t hold your breath for the 2 yet.
In short, the Owlet is a fun, quirky ride with a very design-forward ethos. If you’re looking for a bike that doesn’t look like any other, it could be worth looking into. Though it’s definitely on the unorthodox side and you have to be willing to accept its eccentricities when compared to more conventional two-wheeled devices.
The company is taking $50 refundable deposits for its bike, which it has said it wants to ship around March – but it also says that it’s waiting for a minimum batch quantity of preorders first, and that shipments would take 3-6 months after that, so we imagine March could be optimistic. If you want to get in line, you can reserve one here.
The bike will cost $3,995, though early reservers can get it for $2,995, along with an engraved serial number and a 1 year warranty/service package. Owlet wants to have service locations around LA and possibly one in New York, to begin with. It will distribute the bikes by shipping them directly to customers.
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