Major League Baseball’s new rules didn’t impact scoring significantly in spring training, and oddsmakers began the season without adjusting their numbers on runs scored, while taking a wait-and-see approach to the pitch clock and elimination of the infield shift.
MLB games have averaged 9.1 runs scored over the past five seasons. Last year’s 8.57 runs per game was the lowest since 2015. Spring training games, with the new rules implemented, averaged 10.1 runs, down slightly from last year.
Pitchers have 15 seconds to throw a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds with a runner on base. Hitters must be in the batter’s box with eight seconds on the pitch clock. Hitters are allowed one timeout per at-bat to reset the pitch clock. Pitchers are restricted to stepping off the rubber only twice per plate appearance, including for pickoff attempts. The rule resets if a runner advances during the same plate appearance. And larger bases are being used to increase the success rate on steals.
“We don’t really see a direct correlation from the pitch clock to more scoring,” said Randy Blum, who oversees baseball odds for the SuperBook in Las Vegas. “We were not planning on adjusting our totals off that.”
Halvor England, BetMGM’s lead baseball trader, expects the elimination of the traditional shift to increase scoring marginally, but also believes pitchers will have more control over the hitter during an at-bat because of the pitch clock.
“I think it’s going to be a little more offsetting than people realize, almost a wash,” Halvor said. “I don’t anticipate there to be less scoring overall, but on a game-to-game basis, it’s going to be very marginal.”
The bigger bases being used this season, however, are a difference-maker in bookmakers’ and bettors’ eyes. Steals were up notably in success rate and volume — nearly double from last spring training — this year. Bettors expect the trend to continue.
The SuperBook offered a season-long prop on the over/under on most stolen bases by an individual player. Blum said the book opened the total at 50.5, a number that reflected about four to five more stolen bases than if the rule had not been in place. Still, sharp bettors took the over, causing the SuperBook to move the number to 52.5.
“That’s one thing [larger bases] that we did adjust our numbers on based on the rule changes, and it seems to be something that the bettors are taking note of also,” Blum said. “That was not necessarily a prop that in the past would get a lot of attention either way.”
Joe Fortuna, a veteran professional bettor and baseball fan, said he did edge his numbers up on runs scored because of the rule changes and was looking to bet overs early in the season for multiple reasons, including potential pitchers’ fatigue while working with the pitch clock.
“These guys, in April, might be a little bit out of shape, so I don’t know if running 100 mph pitches up there every 15 seconds will make them tire out faster,” Fortuna said. “The different rules all seemed to lean toward hitting to us.”
Fortuna also examined which hitters faced the most infield shifts last season and pointed out left-handed batters like San Diego’s Juan Soto, Texas’ Corey Seager and Kansas City’s Vinnie Pasquantino as ones who could benefit from its elimination.
“The shift is huge to me,” Fortuna said. “We actually bet on Pasquantino to win MVP today at 250-1. He batted .295 last year and faced 93.8% three-man shifts. That was the highest.”
For now, only one day into the season, bettors and bookmakers will be watching closely to see if there are any trends related to the new rule changes, but early on, it’ll be a guessing game.
“There will be some advantage for bettors if they can figure it all out quicker than the market,” Halvor said.
Brad Marchand immediately reclaims the lead for Boston
Brad Marchand gives the Bruins a 3-2 lead late in the third period after the Maple Leafs tied it up.
Game 1: BOS 5, TOR 1 | Recap Game 2: TOR 3, BOS 2 | Recap | Replay Game 3: BOS 4, TOR 2 | Recap | Replay Game 4: BOS @ TOR | April 27, 8 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: TOR @ BOS | April 30, 7 p.m. (ESPN) | Preview Game 6: BOS @ TOR | May 2* | Preview Game 7: TOR @ BOS | May 4* | Preview
Sebastian Aho scores to restore the Hurricanes’ two-goal lead vs. the Islanders.
Game 1: CAR 3, NYI 1 | Recap Game 2: CAR 5, NYI 3 | Recap | Replay Game 3: CAR 3, NYI 2 | Recap | Replay Game 4: CAR @ NYI | April 27, 2 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: NYI @ CAR | April 30, 7:30 p.m. (TBS)* | Preview Game 6: CAR @ NYI | May 2* | Preview Game 7: NYI @ CAR | May 4* | Preview
Central Division
Regular-season records:
Stars: 52-21-9, 113 points Golden Knights: 45-29-8, 98 points
Noah Hanifin puts Knights on top before third period
Noah Hanifin scoops the puck and makes a nice shot to give the Knights a 2-1 lead heading into the third period versus the Stars.
Game 1: VGK 4, DAL 3 | Recap | Replay Game 2: VGK 3, DAL 1 | Recap | Replay Game 3: DAL @ VGK | April 27, 10:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 4: DAL @ VGK | April 29 (ESPN) | Preview Game 5: VGK @ DAL | May 1* | Preview Game 6: DAL @ VGK | May 3* | Preview Game 7: VGK @ DAL | May 5* | Preview
Game 1: WPG 7, COL 6 | Recap | Replay Game 2: COL 5, WPG 2 | Recap | Replay Game 3: WPG @ COL | April 26, 10 p.m. (TNT) | Preview Game 4: WPG @ COL | April 28, 2:30 p.m. (TNT) | Preview Game 5: COL @ WPG | April 30 | Preview Game 6: WPG @ COL | May 2* | Preview Game 7: COL @ WPG | May 4* | Preview
Colton Sissons finishes the rebound for Predators’ 3rd goal
Nashville extends their lead to 3-0 over the Canucks thanks to this Colton Sissons goal.
Game 1: VAN 4, NSH 2 | Recap | Replay Game 2: NSH 4, VAN 1 | Recap | Replay Game 3: VAN @ NSH | April 26, 7:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 4: VAN @ NSH | April 28, 5 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: NSH @ VAN | April 30, 10 p.m. | Preview Game 6: VAN @ NSH | May 3* | Preview Game 7: NSH @ VAN | May 5* | Preview
Anze Kopitar finds the back of the net early in overtime to lift the Kings to a Game 2 win over the Oilers.
Game 1: EDM 7, LA 4 | Recap | Replay Game 2: LA 5, EDM 4 (OT) | Recap Game 3: EDM @ LA | April 26, 10:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 4: EDM @ LA | April 28, 10:30 p.m. (TBS) | Preview Game 5: LA @ EDM | May 1 | Preview Game 6: EDM @ LA | May 3* | Preview Game 7: LA @ EDM | May 5* | Preview
Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
William Nylander is closing in on his debut for the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 4 of their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against Boston on Saturday.
The Leafs trail the Bruins 2-1 in the best-of-seven.
Friday, the winger spoke with reporters for the first time since being sidelined by an undisclosed injury two weeks ago. The mystery ailment has held Nylander out of Toronto’s lineup for the first three postseason tilts against Boston and he’s been diligently working to get back in.
Nylander was a full participant in the Leafs’ practice on Friday, skating on a regular line with Pontus Holmberg and Calle Jarnkrok and taking reps on Toronto’s first power play unit. Both are signs that Toronto is preparing to have Nylander for Saturday’s game.
“We’ll see,” Nylander surmised of his potential availability. “I don’t know [for sure].”
Coach Sheldon Keefe remained optimistic Nylander was finally ready to go after an engaging practice session.
“He looked great to me on the ice,” said Keefe. “In terms of his status, we’ll have to determine that [on Saturday].”
Details of Nylander’s injury have been strictly guarded by the Leafs so far. Nylander followed suit when asked to confirm media reports he’s been dealing with migraines.
“That’s just personal, so I’m not going to get into that,” he said.
Nylander wasn’t worried either about stepping back into a series that’s been in full swing for a week either, citing there was “nothing” difficult ahead for him in a potential return on Saturday.
“I’ve been skating and everything; I’m fine,” said Nylander. “It is what it is. There’s nothing to really stress about. You can’t force yourself back into the game, so I’ll be ready when I’m ready.”
Toronto could use a boost like Nylander coming back heading into Game 4. He was a 40-goal scorer in the regular season with an impressive playoff resume (having collected 40 points in 50 previous postseason outings). Adding an offensive weapon like that to the mix can help the Leafs solve their scoring issues. Toronto’s managed six goals in the first three games against Boston and their misfiring power play is 1-for-11.
Having Nylander as an option makes the Leafs immediately more dangerous at both 5-on-5 and special teams. That’s paramount for Toronto’s hopes of tying the series again before it goes back to Boston for Game 5 on Tuesday.
The Bruins have been changing things up in their crease throughout the playoffs to date, rotating between Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark as they did with good success in the regular season.
Boston coach Jim Montgomery wouldn’t confirm his Game 4 goaltender after Swayman backstopped the Bruins to wins in Game 1 and Game 3, but there’s a chance it’ll be Linus Ullmark getting the call despite Boston falling in his last Game 2 start.
“We’re following the plan we had in place,” said Montgomery, while confirming the decision has already been made.