‘It’s life-changing’: How minor leaguers came together and doubled their pay
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Jeff PassanESPN
DESCRIBING LIFE IN the minor leagues can sound like a twisted Mad Lib. The names and locations and adjectives may change, but for generations, the details of the climb to Major League Baseball have remained mortifying. The poverty. The working conditions. The food. The third-class nature of the entire operation. Now, after decades of mistreatment, of being told they were mere apprentices, the people who had given their young lives to the game were in a position to tell those running it who they were and why they mattered.
In January, at the MLB Players Association’s offices high atop the New York City skyline, Matthew Peguero told MLB officials his version of the story. He was from the Dominican Republic and signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. He came to the United States as a teenager not knowing English. He sent the pittance he received — a couple hundred dollars a week during the season without any pay in the offseason or spring training — home to support his family. He struggled to survive.
It was the same story relayed by Andres Angulo, who came from Colombia at 16 years old and spent four years in rookie ball. He saw countless friends who had forgone an education to chase a life in baseball released at 18 with no money, no skills, no job prospects — a dream turned nightmare. These stories and more were shared during in-person bargaining sessions on a landmark first collective-bargaining agreement for minor league players, who described their struggle to understand how an $11 billion-a-year industry could so disregard the mental and physical well-being of its next generation of players.
“If you didn’t sign for $50,000 or more, life in the minor leagues was unsustainable,” said Trevor Hildenberger, a relief pitcher who spent four years in the major leagues and, as he tries to claw his way back, took a leadership role in the unionization of minor league players. “It was just a ticking clock. Either you couldn’t afford to pursue this anymore or you made it to the big leagues.”
This was no narrative. The reality was too real for MLB to ignore anymore. Players were coming forward, social media had delivered their stories to the masses, and though every collective bargaining agreement is little more than an exercise in wealth distribution, MLB couldn’t discount what players were saying: Baseball’s development system was a moral abomination, and this was the opportunity to fix it
For five months, the league and the union, formed under the umbrella of the MLB Players Association, worked toward a deal. After more than three dozen bargaining sessions, they landed on an agreement that more than doubled pay for all players. The union fought for more guaranteed rights, from improved housing and transportation to enhanced medical privileges and health benefits. The league, after settling a class-action minimum-wage and overtime claim from players for $185 million in August, received the ability to manage roster sizes and protection from future wage suits, with any cases to go instead through the arbitration process. Owners approved the deal unanimously Monday; days earlier, 99% of the thousands of players voting had backed it.
In conversations with ESPN, more than a dozen people, from players to employees of the league and union, outlined how a once-unthinkable deal came together with shocking rapidity. Players, tired of the status quo, sought to forge a new one. The league, reeling from bad publicity, committed upward of $100 million yearly to fix its mistakes. By no means is the deal, which will last five years, perfect. But because of it, those involved said, no longer is minor league life a black mark for baseball.
“It was just so clear,” Hildenberger said, “what was right and what was wrong.”
DURING MLB’s 99-DAY lockout of major league players after the 2021 season, Kumar Nambiar spent his days in Jupiter, Florida, training at Cressey Sports Performance. Nambiar marveled at the players surrounding him there. He had pitched at Yale for four years, gone to the Oakland A’s in the 34th round of the 2019 draft and climbed to High-A on the strength of a changeup that dove from his left hand. And here he was, side-by-side with big leaguers trying to stay sharp as the contentious negotiations unfolded.
One day, Nambiar noticed a familiar face: Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer who over the winter had signed for a record $43.3 million a year with the New York Mets. Scherzer also was one of eight executive-board members of the MLBPA, and every day, he would update players at Cressey of the latest goings-on in negotiations with a message on a whiteboard. Nambiar introduced himself to Scherzer and thanked him for his work trying to secure a new deal. Scherzer took the opportunity to educate Nambiar on the process.
“Hearing him talk about this and how important it was inspired me,” Nambiar said. “Before that, I didn’t really understand what the players’ association did. I didn’t know the negotiations, the past bargaining.”
Nambiar wasn’t alone. Despite the 100-plus years of the minor leagues’ existence, the MLBPA had shown no interest in forming a minor league unit. The prospect of organizing more than 5,000 minor league players was too daunting even for a union as renowned as the MLBPA.
Social media changed that, as did the work of a group called Advocates for Minor Leaguers, led by a former minor league pitcher-turned-lawyer Harry Marino. The stories of a half-dozen players cramming into a two-bedroom apartment resonated with the public. Tyler Cyr, a reliever at Triple-A for the San Francisco Giants, posted on Twitter his final pay stub of the 2019 season. The amount received was $165 — and $8,216.58 for the whole year.
A real turning point came in 2020, when, before caving to public pressure, teams were not paying minor league players during the pandemic shutdown.
“The importance of that can’t be understated,” Hildenberger said. “A lot of guys were in need of help, and owners didn’t want to pay anyone their salaries. That opened a lot of guys’ eyes.”
Inspired by their stories, Marino’s organization had begun the herculean task of organizing players. Advocates identified potential leaders and encouraged them to serve as conduits to the entire player population. After MLB took over control of the minor leagues before the 2020 season and reduced the number of affiliated teams from 162 to 120, players grew even more emboldened.
They pushed for organizations to provide housing, and MLB acceded before the 2022 season. That, players said, was a good first step, but dozens of other issues — none more than their salaries — needed remedying. The settlement in Senne v. MLB, the lawsuit that alleged players had been underpaid by hundreds of millions of dollars, inspired even more players.
Roused by Scherzer and the work of Marino and his cohort, Nambiar last year went and bought “Lords of the Realm,” the John Helyar book on the history of labor relations in baseball, which told the story of the player revolution that changed the landscape of professional sports. Throughout the season, he talked about the future of minor league labor with Jared McDonald, his teammate in the A’s. On a late-night bus ride in early September, McDonald, who had aligned with Advocates as it embarked on a union drive, retreated to the back to deliver news that stunned his teammates, Nambiar included.
“Guys, it’s happening,” McDonald said. “We’re unionizing.”
That month, the MLBPA absorbed Advocates and sent union-authorization cards to players, who overwhelmingly voted in favor of forming a minor league unit. Any fear that MLB would challenge the formation of the union wound up to be unfounded; within days, the league voluntarily recognized the minor league unit. And about a month later, on Oct. 27, the MLBPA made its opening presentation to MLB.
The goal from the beginning was clear: The players wanted a deal by Opening Day 2023. Because they had no intentions to strike, their leverage was minimal. And yet that didn’t worry them. For all the animus between MLB and the MLBPA, all the bad blood left over from the major league lockout, minor league players still believed that they were on the right side of history — and that with the right framing, MLB would see it, too.
CRAFTING THE STORIES they told the league would require a deft touch. It couldn’t be all horror — things such as the tale of the teammates who took their paltry per diems on an off-day, went to a local pet store, bought a rabbit, killed it, cooked it and ate it for dinner that night. Finding a balance between complaining about what they didn’t have and bargaining for what they wanted was exceedingly thin. So in late November, the union invited dozens of players to the Phoenix area for a strategizing session.
Players of all walks gathered. There were former big leaguers such as Hildenberger and Ivy League graduates such as Nambiar and representatives such as Angel Basabe, a Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder born in Venezuela and raised in Panama, helping speak for the half of minor leaguers from Latin America. They traded experiences, which served a dual purpose: to give the MLBPA a foundation upon which to ask for change, and to learn more about one another so they could achieve the solidarity necessary for a union to succeed.
“What’s important for me is important for all of us: Get something that is fair, that we deserve,” Basabe said. “I’m a Latin player, so I can be the example for a lot of situations that were not right.”
The two days in Phoenix emboldened the players and narrowed their priorities. Higher salaries were the clear No. 1 objective. Even after the league bumped salaries slightly in 2021, Triple-A players with no major league service maxed out at $17,500 per year, Double-A players at $13,800, A-ball players at $11,000 and rookie-league players at $4,800. The lack of offseason pay forced players into an impossible choice: spend the winter getting a job to make ends meet, or train so they could improve their game before the next spring. The players coalesced around their shared past, taking the emotions built up in Phoenix onto player-only Zoom calls and into the bargaining room.
“I felt so much more comfortable speaking to these guys who I knew understood what we were fighting for,” Hildenberger said. “That was a very powerful feeling. In college, you play with your best friends and you’re trying to get to Omaha. When you’re all pulling toward the same goal and achieving that, it’s the best feeling in the world. To do it on a wider scale with 60 guys in the room and 150 on Zoom, and representing more than 5,000 people who we knew deserved better, instilled me with a lot of hope.”
The union outlined dozens of asks to the league throughout December, as it delivered all of the initial proposals, and the league offered its first response in writing Jan. 12. Five days later, MLB delivered another proposal, this one addressing salaries for the first time. Bruce Meyer, the union’s lead negotiator, had warned players in Phoenix not to be alarmed by it — that the most important elements of the negotiation would come in the final two weeks of talks. In Meyer, the union had “someone who would stand up for us,” Nambiar said, even as MLB’s negotiating team — led by deputy commissioner Dan Halem and Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort — pushed back. Union executive director Tony Clark had spent considerable time in the meetings, too, with Marino playing a vital role and general counsel Matt Nussbaum helping map out strategy, while Patrick Houlihan, Peter Woodfork and Kasey Sanossian did the same for MLB.
A big breakthrough came in January, when the sides agreed that players would be salaried and compensation would be delivered for almost the entirety of the year. In addition to a bump in pay during the season, players would receive weekly checks during early- and late-offseason periods as well as spring training. The early success story heartened players and illustrated that the league was approaching the negotiations in good faith.
Throughout January, the sides hashed out other issues. Would players, the league wondered, consider dropping team-provided housing for higher salaries? No, players said. There was comfort in stability, and dealing with the vagaries of finding a short-term apartment rental diverged with the focus vital to a big league ascent. Would the league, players asked, consider termination pay for those released by teams? No, MLB said. That was a nonstarter.
Negotiations moved at a steady pace throughout January and February, with players going to New York City to participate — Hildenberger and Basabe flew in for sessions, and Nambiar, who lives in Westchester County, New York, attended regularly. On Feb. 16, the sides finalized the first of what would be nearly 30 tentative agreements on individual issues, with the signatures of Marino and Sannosian formalizing a two-page document. In it, teams agreed to provide players with “two full, nutritious meals of high quality” — one pregame, one postgame — every day during the season. The union and league would form a joint committee to address any nutrition complaints from players, whose per diem would rise from $25 to $30.
Collective bargaining agreements — particularly ones being drawn up from scratch — don’t happen overnight, and as the players left in late February for spring training, their participation would be limited to Zoom calls. March had arrived, and Opening Day was set for the 30th. The two-week window Meyer had talked about was fast approaching. The league said it was fine starting the season without a deal, but everyone involved understood: That outcome would be the latest disaster in a minor league history laden with them.
BY MID-MARCH, the sides were dug in with scant progress over the previous two weeks. Players wanted to push salaries past the point of comfort for MLB. The league wanted the unilateral ability to set the Domestic Reserve List, which governs the number of players a team can roster at its four minor league affiliates and Arizona or Florida complexes. The key issues for both parties were clear, and if past negotiations in the major leagues were any indication, they’d save them for the end.
Eventually, bit by bit, the makings of a deal came together. On March 14, they reached a tentative agreement on housing rules to be implemented at latest by 2024, giving Triple-A and Double-A players their own rooms and offering special dispensations for players with children, who are guaranteed at least two-bedroom apartments. Players at all levels would continue to receive free housing. A week later, after heated discussions over transportation to and from the stadium for players without cars, MLB agreed to provide rides for players in A-ball and rookie ball to and from all games.
One day later came an agreement on a grievance system that would cover discipline, a domestic violence policy and a joint drug-and-treatment program. The day after that, a pact on a no-strike, no-lockout provision. Then more: players receiving name, image and likeness privileges for the union to use in group licensing; the right to a second opinion on medical decisions, as well as free medical, dental and vision care; $2.5 million a year from the league to be distributed to players’ 401(k)s; and the reduction of the reserve — the amount of years a team owns a player’s rights in the minor leagues — from seven years to six for all future union members.
With each tentative agreement, the confidence in both sides grew. As loath as players were to give full control to MLB on the Domestic Reserve List, they found a compromise in its reduction from 180 players to 165. The agreement didn’t sit well with some players, who worry about the loss of more jobs after the contraction of 40-plus teams three years ago. The league countered with data that showed over the previous two years, teams on average had 166 players on their rosters — and in the end, the players decided that what they would get in return was worth the winnowing.
In its best and final offer March 29, the league agreed to bump Triple-A minimum salaries from $17,500 to $35,800, Double-A from $13,800 to $30,250, High-A from $11,000 to $27,300, Low-A from $11,000 to $26,200 and rookie league from $4,800 to $19,800. (Players in the Dominican Summer League, who are not part of the union, will not receive similar raises.) Further, the league agreed to supply back pay for spring training this year and will pay players for all but a six-week period between late November and Jan. 1. Offseason pay is a minimum of $250 a week and $375 extra a week for those who attend team-led winter training, such as instructional league, or rehabilitation at team complexes. Slight raises accompanied the last three years of the offer.
It was enough for the players. The leaders, on a Zoom call, were thrilled. And relieved. The past half-year had tested their patience and willingness to trust that the league would right its wrongs. And though there remains plenty to improve — ensuring more jobs aren’t lost, higher salaries, better benefits — the deal addressed enough key issues that player leadership approved it happily.
“With the offseason payment, now we can focus on baseball,” Basabe said. “I know [the rank and file] are grateful. We’re making changes. This is history.”
Word spread quickly among players, and within 24 hours of sending out the deal to a vote, the returns were nearly unanimous. The agreement was for everyone, from Basabe and Hildenberger and Nambiar to Matthew Peguero and Andres Angulo and the thousands of others who were lucky enough to play a game for a living but warranted dignity as they did so.
The story of life in the minor leagues, painful in many ways, had carried them to a better place.
“It’s life-changing for a lot of people now,” Nambiar said, “and for generations going forward.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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