‘It’s life-changing’: How minor leaguers came together and doubled their pay
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3 years agoon
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Jeff PassanESPN
Close- ESPN MLB insider
Author of “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports”
DESCRIBING LIFE IN the minor leagues can sound like a twisted Mad Lib. The names and locations and adjectives may change, but for generations, the details of the climb to Major League Baseball have remained mortifying. The poverty. The working conditions. The food. The third-class nature of the entire operation. Now, after decades of mistreatment, of being told they were mere apprentices, the people who had given their young lives to the game were in a position to tell those running it who they were and why they mattered.
In January, at the MLB Players Association’s offices high atop the New York City skyline, Matthew Peguero told MLB officials his version of the story. He was from the Dominican Republic and signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. He came to the United States as a teenager not knowing English. He sent the pittance he received — a couple hundred dollars a week during the season without any pay in the offseason or spring training — home to support his family. He struggled to survive.
It was the same story relayed by Andres Angulo, who came from Colombia at 16 years old and spent four years in rookie ball. He saw countless friends who had forgone an education to chase a life in baseball released at 18 with no money, no skills, no job prospects — a dream turned nightmare. These stories and more were shared during in-person bargaining sessions on a landmark first collective-bargaining agreement for minor league players, who described their struggle to understand how an $11 billion-a-year industry could so disregard the mental and physical well-being of its next generation of players.
“If you didn’t sign for $50,000 or more, life in the minor leagues was unsustainable,” said Trevor Hildenberger, a relief pitcher who spent four years in the major leagues and, as he tries to claw his way back, took a leadership role in the unionization of minor league players. “It was just a ticking clock. Either you couldn’t afford to pursue this anymore or you made it to the big leagues.”
This was no narrative. The reality was too real for MLB to ignore anymore. Players were coming forward, social media had delivered their stories to the masses, and though every collective bargaining agreement is little more than an exercise in wealth distribution, MLB couldn’t discount what players were saying: Baseball’s development system was a moral abomination, and this was the opportunity to fix it
For five months, the league and the union, formed under the umbrella of the MLB Players Association, worked toward a deal. After more than three dozen bargaining sessions, they landed on an agreement that more than doubled pay for all players. The union fought for more guaranteed rights, from improved housing and transportation to enhanced medical privileges and health benefits. The league, after settling a class-action minimum-wage and overtime claim from players for $185 million in August, received the ability to manage roster sizes and protection from future wage suits, with any cases to go instead through the arbitration process. Owners approved the deal unanimously Monday; days earlier, 99% of the thousands of players voting had backed it.
In conversations with ESPN, more than a dozen people, from players to employees of the league and union, outlined how a once-unthinkable deal came together with shocking rapidity. Players, tired of the status quo, sought to forge a new one. The league, reeling from bad publicity, committed upward of $100 million yearly to fix its mistakes. By no means is the deal, which will last five years, perfect. But because of it, those involved said, no longer is minor league life a black mark for baseball.
“It was just so clear,” Hildenberger said, “what was right and what was wrong.”
DURING MLB’s 99-DAY lockout of major league players after the 2021 season, Kumar Nambiar spent his days in Jupiter, Florida, training at Cressey Sports Performance. Nambiar marveled at the players surrounding him there. He had pitched at Yale for four years, gone to the Oakland A’s in the 34th round of the 2019 draft and climbed to High-A on the strength of a changeup that dove from his left hand. And here he was, side-by-side with big leaguers trying to stay sharp as the contentious negotiations unfolded.
One day, Nambiar noticed a familiar face: Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer who over the winter had signed for a record $43.3 million a year with the New York Mets. Scherzer also was one of eight executive-board members of the MLBPA, and every day, he would update players at Cressey of the latest goings-on in negotiations with a message on a whiteboard. Nambiar introduced himself to Scherzer and thanked him for his work trying to secure a new deal. Scherzer took the opportunity to educate Nambiar on the process.
“Hearing him talk about this and how important it was inspired me,” Nambiar said. “Before that, I didn’t really understand what the players’ association did. I didn’t know the negotiations, the past bargaining.”
Nambiar wasn’t alone. Despite the 100-plus years of the minor leagues’ existence, the MLBPA had shown no interest in forming a minor league unit. The prospect of organizing more than 5,000 minor league players was too daunting even for a union as renowned as the MLBPA.
Social media changed that, as did the work of a group called Advocates for Minor Leaguers, led by a former minor league pitcher-turned-lawyer Harry Marino. The stories of a half-dozen players cramming into a two-bedroom apartment resonated with the public. Tyler Cyr, a reliever at Triple-A for the San Francisco Giants, posted on Twitter his final pay stub of the 2019 season. The amount received was $165 — and $8,216.58 for the whole year.
A real turning point came in 2020, when, before caving to public pressure, teams were not paying minor league players during the pandemic shutdown.
“The importance of that can’t be understated,” Hildenberger said. “A lot of guys were in need of help, and owners didn’t want to pay anyone their salaries. That opened a lot of guys’ eyes.”
Inspired by their stories, Marino’s organization had begun the herculean task of organizing players. Advocates identified potential leaders and encouraged them to serve as conduits to the entire player population. After MLB took over control of the minor leagues before the 2020 season and reduced the number of affiliated teams from 162 to 120, players grew even more emboldened.
They pushed for organizations to provide housing, and MLB acceded before the 2022 season. That, players said, was a good first step, but dozens of other issues — none more than their salaries — needed remedying. The settlement in Senne v. MLB, the lawsuit that alleged players had been underpaid by hundreds of millions of dollars, inspired even more players.
Roused by Scherzer and the work of Marino and his cohort, Nambiar last year went and bought “Lords of the Realm,” the John Helyar book on the history of labor relations in baseball, which told the story of the player revolution that changed the landscape of professional sports. Throughout the season, he talked about the future of minor league labor with Jared McDonald, his teammate in the A’s. On a late-night bus ride in early September, McDonald, who had aligned with Advocates as it embarked on a union drive, retreated to the back to deliver news that stunned his teammates, Nambiar included.
“Guys, it’s happening,” McDonald said. “We’re unionizing.”
That month, the MLBPA absorbed Advocates and sent union-authorization cards to players, who overwhelmingly voted in favor of forming a minor league unit. Any fear that MLB would challenge the formation of the union wound up to be unfounded; within days, the league voluntarily recognized the minor league unit. And about a month later, on Oct. 27, the MLBPA made its opening presentation to MLB.
The goal from the beginning was clear: The players wanted a deal by Opening Day 2023. Because they had no intentions to strike, their leverage was minimal. And yet that didn’t worry them. For all the animus between MLB and the MLBPA, all the bad blood left over from the major league lockout, minor league players still believed that they were on the right side of history — and that with the right framing, MLB would see it, too.
CRAFTING THE STORIES they told the league would require a deft touch. It couldn’t be all horror — things such as the tale of the teammates who took their paltry per diems on an off-day, went to a local pet store, bought a rabbit, killed it, cooked it and ate it for dinner that night. Finding a balance between complaining about what they didn’t have and bargaining for what they wanted was exceedingly thin. So in late November, the union invited dozens of players to the Phoenix area for a strategizing session.
Players of all walks gathered. There were former big leaguers such as Hildenberger and Ivy League graduates such as Nambiar and representatives such as Angel Basabe, a Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder born in Venezuela and raised in Panama, helping speak for the half of minor leaguers from Latin America. They traded experiences, which served a dual purpose: to give the MLBPA a foundation upon which to ask for change, and to learn more about one another so they could achieve the solidarity necessary for a union to succeed.
“What’s important for me is important for all of us: Get something that is fair, that we deserve,” Basabe said. “I’m a Latin player, so I can be the example for a lot of situations that were not right.”
The two days in Phoenix emboldened the players and narrowed their priorities. Higher salaries were the clear No. 1 objective. Even after the league bumped salaries slightly in 2021, Triple-A players with no major league service maxed out at $17,500 per year, Double-A players at $13,800, A-ball players at $11,000 and rookie-league players at $4,800. The lack of offseason pay forced players into an impossible choice: spend the winter getting a job to make ends meet, or train so they could improve their game before the next spring. The players coalesced around their shared past, taking the emotions built up in Phoenix onto player-only Zoom calls and into the bargaining room.
“I felt so much more comfortable speaking to these guys who I knew understood what we were fighting for,” Hildenberger said. “That was a very powerful feeling. In college, you play with your best friends and you’re trying to get to Omaha. When you’re all pulling toward the same goal and achieving that, it’s the best feeling in the world. To do it on a wider scale with 60 guys in the room and 150 on Zoom, and representing more than 5,000 people who we knew deserved better, instilled me with a lot of hope.”
The union outlined dozens of asks to the league throughout December, as it delivered all of the initial proposals, and the league offered its first response in writing Jan. 12. Five days later, MLB delivered another proposal, this one addressing salaries for the first time. Bruce Meyer, the union’s lead negotiator, had warned players in Phoenix not to be alarmed by it — that the most important elements of the negotiation would come in the final two weeks of talks. In Meyer, the union had “someone who would stand up for us,” Nambiar said, even as MLB’s negotiating team — led by deputy commissioner Dan Halem and Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort — pushed back. Union executive director Tony Clark had spent considerable time in the meetings, too, with Marino playing a vital role and general counsel Matt Nussbaum helping map out strategy, while Patrick Houlihan, Peter Woodfork and Kasey Sanossian did the same for MLB.
A big breakthrough came in January, when the sides agreed that players would be salaried and compensation would be delivered for almost the entirety of the year. In addition to a bump in pay during the season, players would receive weekly checks during early- and late-offseason periods as well as spring training. The early success story heartened players and illustrated that the league was approaching the negotiations in good faith.
Throughout January, the sides hashed out other issues. Would players, the league wondered, consider dropping team-provided housing for higher salaries? No, players said. There was comfort in stability, and dealing with the vagaries of finding a short-term apartment rental diverged with the focus vital to a big league ascent. Would the league, players asked, consider termination pay for those released by teams? No, MLB said. That was a nonstarter.
Negotiations moved at a steady pace throughout January and February, with players going to New York City to participate — Hildenberger and Basabe flew in for sessions, and Nambiar, who lives in Westchester County, New York, attended regularly. On Feb. 16, the sides finalized the first of what would be nearly 30 tentative agreements on individual issues, with the signatures of Marino and Sannosian formalizing a two-page document. In it, teams agreed to provide players with “two full, nutritious meals of high quality” — one pregame, one postgame — every day during the season. The union and league would form a joint committee to address any nutrition complaints from players, whose per diem would rise from $25 to $30.
Collective bargaining agreements — particularly ones being drawn up from scratch — don’t happen overnight, and as the players left in late February for spring training, their participation would be limited to Zoom calls. March had arrived, and Opening Day was set for the 30th. The two-week window Meyer had talked about was fast approaching. The league said it was fine starting the season without a deal, but everyone involved understood: That outcome would be the latest disaster in a minor league history laden with them.
BY MID-MARCH, the sides were dug in with scant progress over the previous two weeks. Players wanted to push salaries past the point of comfort for MLB. The league wanted the unilateral ability to set the Domestic Reserve List, which governs the number of players a team can roster at its four minor league affiliates and Arizona or Florida complexes. The key issues for both parties were clear, and if past negotiations in the major leagues were any indication, they’d save them for the end.
Eventually, bit by bit, the makings of a deal came together. On March 14, they reached a tentative agreement on housing rules to be implemented at latest by 2024, giving Triple-A and Double-A players their own rooms and offering special dispensations for players with children, who are guaranteed at least two-bedroom apartments. Players at all levels would continue to receive free housing. A week later, after heated discussions over transportation to and from the stadium for players without cars, MLB agreed to provide rides for players in A-ball and rookie ball to and from all games.
One day later came an agreement on a grievance system that would cover discipline, a domestic violence policy and a joint drug-and-treatment program. The day after that, a pact on a no-strike, no-lockout provision. Then more: players receiving name, image and likeness privileges for the union to use in group licensing; the right to a second opinion on medical decisions, as well as free medical, dental and vision care; $2.5 million a year from the league to be distributed to players’ 401(k)s; and the reduction of the reserve — the amount of years a team owns a player’s rights in the minor leagues — from seven years to six for all future union members.
With each tentative agreement, the confidence in both sides grew. As loath as players were to give full control to MLB on the Domestic Reserve List, they found a compromise in its reduction from 180 players to 165. The agreement didn’t sit well with some players, who worry about the loss of more jobs after the contraction of 40-plus teams three years ago. The league countered with data that showed over the previous two years, teams on average had 166 players on their rosters — and in the end, the players decided that what they would get in return was worth the winnowing.
In its best and final offer March 29, the league agreed to bump Triple-A minimum salaries from $17,500 to $35,800, Double-A from $13,800 to $30,250, High-A from $11,000 to $27,300, Low-A from $11,000 to $26,200 and rookie league from $4,800 to $19,800. (Players in the Dominican Summer League, who are not part of the union, will not receive similar raises.) Further, the league agreed to supply back pay for spring training this year and will pay players for all but a six-week period between late November and Jan. 1. Offseason pay is a minimum of $250 a week and $375 extra a week for those who attend team-led winter training, such as instructional league, or rehabilitation at team complexes. Slight raises accompanied the last three years of the offer.
It was enough for the players. The leaders, on a Zoom call, were thrilled. And relieved. The past half-year had tested their patience and willingness to trust that the league would right its wrongs. And though there remains plenty to improve — ensuring more jobs aren’t lost, higher salaries, better benefits — the deal addressed enough key issues that player leadership approved it happily.
“With the offseason payment, now we can focus on baseball,” Basabe said. “I know [the rank and file] are grateful. We’re making changes. This is history.”
Word spread quickly among players, and within 24 hours of sending out the deal to a vote, the returns were nearly unanimous. The agreement was for everyone, from Basabe and Hildenberger and Nambiar to Matthew Peguero and Andres Angulo and the thousands of others who were lucky enough to play a game for a living but warranted dignity as they did so.
The story of life in the minor leagues, painful in many ways, had carried them to a better place.
“It’s life-changing for a lot of people now,” Nambiar said, “and for generations going forward.”
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MLB offseason grades: Mets nab Polanco, Blue Jays keep adding
Published
2 hours agoon
December 13, 2025By
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Dec 13, 2025, 12:15 PM ET
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Jump to biggest deals:
Alonso to BAL | Schwarber to PHI
Diaz to LAD | Cease to TOR
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The deal: New York Mets sign IF/DH Jorge Polanco to two-year, $40 million deal
Grade: C
Just days after the Mets lost Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles — without even making the franchise’s career home run leader a formal offer — the club has found his replacement by signing Polanco in a deal that is unlikely to immediately win back disgruntled Mets fans.
Polanco is coming off an excellent season with the Seattle Mariners, hitting .265/.326/.495 with 26 home runs and a 134 OPS+. With Marcus Semien now the Mets’ second baseman, Polanco will work into the first-base/DH mix alongside Mark Vientos.
On the surface, it’s possible to argue that Polanco can fill Alonso’s shoes — or, given that he’ll be making about two-thirds of the $31 million AAV that Alonso will make with the Orioles, at least replace two-thirds of those shoes given that Alonso’s numbers weren’t that much better: .272/.347/.524 with a 144 OPS+.
Indeed, with either Vientos or Polanco projected at least as a small defensive upgrade over Alonso at first base, the Mets can pretend they’ve just replaced Alonso’s overall value while saving $11 million they could use toward signing top free agent Kyle Tucker or a front-line starting pitcher.
Of course, it’s not quite so simple. Polanco’s 134 OPS+ was a career high, and he has surpassed 20 home runs just three times in his career, the other two coming with the Twins in the lively ball years of 2019 and 2021. To be fair, he was healthier in 2025 after battling various leg and knee injuries the previous two seasons that limited him to a .213/.296/.355 line in his first season with Seattle in 2024.
In comparison to Alonso’s record of durability, that makes this a risky signing, as Polanco averaged just 101 games from 2022 to 2024. It’s fair to argue that three years of injuries is a better predictor of what might happen in the future than one healthy, career-best season. Polanco’s season also ran hot and cold: He had a 1.226 OPS in April and finished strong with a 1.015 OPS in September, along with some big postseason moments, but hit just .139 in May and .222 in June.
At his best, the 32-year-old switch-hitter is a tough out from both sides of the plate, with an 83rd percentile strikeout rate. He produced career highs in 2025 in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate while cutting his strikeout rate nearly in half from 2025. If the Mets get that version of Polanco, he’ll be a nice addition, if a bit of an overpay for a player with his health history. You certainly can’t pencil him for 162 games like you could for Alonso — and that’s what the Mets will miss most in 2026. — David Schoenfield
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The deal: Toronto Blue sign Tyler Rogers to three-year, $37 million deal (with 2029 vesting option)
Grade: B+
Rogers is one of the most unique — and underrated, and wonderful – relievers in the majors. A pitcher with an 83-mph sinker shouldn’t succeed, but Rogers has, with a 2.71 ERA since 2021. Among pitchers with at least 350 innings since then, only Jacob deGrom has a lower ERA. Rogers does it with his ground-scraping delivery, the lowest release point of any pitcher in the majors, which gives him a different look than any other pitcher, with the ball leaving his six feet lower than most pitchers.
He threw that sinker nearly 75% of the time in 2025, relentlessly pounding the strike zone (he’s walked just 11 batters unintentionally in 148 innings over the past two seasons). Rogers then mixes in what is essentially a rising slider due to his low release point. In other words: He pitches down with his fastball and up with his breaking, the exact opposite of how most pitchers are doing it. Hitters’ brains just have trouble adjusting to something they’re not used to seeing.
It works, even though his whiff rate is in the first percentile — basically the lowest in baseball. But his groundball rate was in the 98th percentile, his hard-hit rate was in the 95th percentile and he never walks anybody. Unlike many sidearmers of the past, he has no platoon split, with a .627 OPS allowed against left-handed batters since 2021 and .633 against right-handers. Like those sidearmers, he’s been extremely durable, averaging 75 appearances over the past five seasons.
It looks like a great signing for the Blue Jays, especially because it fills a hole. Indeed, when we last saw the Jays in Game 7 of the World Series, manager John Schneider used six relievers, four of whom allowed a run. Three of those pitchers were starters, which indicated the lack of trust Schneider had in his regular relievers. Jeff Hoffman is presumably back as the closer after an up-and-down season, but Rogers immediately becomes the top high-leverage setup guy and Plan B if Hoffman struggles struggling again with the longball.
The biggest risk here is Rogers turns 35 in a few days, but, while the contract was higher than projected, Rogers doesn’t rely on velocity anyway, so he’s a good bet to remain healthy and age well into his late 30s. With the additions now of Dylan Cease, Korean League MVP Cody Ponce and Rogers, the Jays have reinforced the pitching staff while seeing the payroll soar past where it was in 2025. It will soar even higher if they can re-sign Bo Bichette, which now feels more likely given this spending spurge so far. — Schoenfield
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The deal: Braves add RHP Robert Suarez on a three-year, $45 million contract
Grade: B
If you close your eyes, ignore the rest of the offseason and the 2026 regular season, and then imagine the Braves in next year’s playoff bracket, you see something enticing. A team with a one-two back-of-the-bullpen punch that has shrunk games down to seven innings. Navigate the bridge innings between the rotation and this dual-closer dynamo waiting in the wings, add a resurgent offense, and you’re in business.
To be clear, this very well might happen. The Braves, despite last season’s disappointments, rate as a prime contender, solidly in the tier down from the one-team group composed of the Dodgers. This was even before the additions over the past 18 hours or so of Yastrzemski and Suarez. Thus the Braves’ probabilities keep trending in the right direction.
Suarez is a powerhouse righty with an average fastball velocity approaching 99 mph. He throws harder than incumbent Braves closer Raisel Iglesias but has fewer weapons and induces fewer swing-and-misses. The question of who closes on a game-by-game basis might come down to who’s batting, as Suarez is strictly fastball/changeup against lefties and has been less successful in that regard than Iglesias. But the heavy sinker he mixes in against righties has made for a nasty combination: Batters from the right side produced just a .435 OPS against Suarez a season ago.
Still, the arsenals and movement profiles between Suarez and Iglesias seem pretty similar with the exception of Iglesias’ slider, a pitch which Suarez doesn’t throw. This isn’t necessarily a problem. For one thing, if you follow one with the other in a game, there’s little chance that the same hitters will see both pitchers. The more important consideration is simply the two innings of elite stuff opposing teams will see when trying to wage a comeback against the Braves. Still, in the context of the postseason series we conjured at the outset, this could be a consideration. Ideally, teams want their bullpen to be minimally redundant.
The contract is about right in AAV but probably a year longer than you’d like. That’s surely the function of a free agent market growing thin on elite closer types. The Braves re-upped with the 36-year-old Iglesias on a one-year, $16 million deal last month, so as long as Suarez holds up, he’s in position to take over as Atlanta’s exclusive closer after next season. The “if he holds up” qualifier is the potential sticking point because Suarez himself will be 35 by the time next season starts and has a strikeout rate (28%, 78th percentile among relievers with at least 30 appearances) that isn’t elite despite his raw stuff.
Also, we noted in our grade on the Yastrzemski signing below that the Braves’ room under the first tax threshold is shrinking. That continues with this move, though the deal is slightly backloaded ($13 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026 and 2027). According to Cot’s Contracts, this drops Atlanta down to within $9 million to $10 million below that line — and the Braves have more moves to make, with a shortstop topping their list.
Passing the threshold wouldn’t be a huge deal for Atlanta, which operated below the threshold last season. Still, it’s something you don’t want to do willy-nilly and since the Braves already had Iglesias on hand, maybe a lower-cost alternative like Brad Keller or Seranthony Dominguez would have made sense.
But if the Braves can steer this new bullpen structure into next October, no one will be worrying about the threshold. — Doolittle
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The deal: Braves sign outfielder Mike Yastrzemski to a two-year, $23 million contract that includes a club option for a third year
Grade: B-
The Braves didn’t need a major overhaul in the outfield, but Yastrzemski represents an upgrade to the overall position group. He’s a versatile left-handed hitter who will ostensibly bump veteran Michael Siani out of a depth role on the 40-man roster.
The deal feels like a mild overpay given Yastrzemski’s age (he turns 36 next August), the two-year commitment and the Braves’ payroll outlook. Atlanta still has room to play with under the first luxury tax threshold (around $22 million, according to Cot’s Contracts) but they still need a starting shortstop and more pitching, so things could get cozy pretty quick.
That said, you like the options that new Atlanta manager Walt Weiss will have at his disposal, especially if the Braves find a solution at short that would shift Mauricio Dubon into the super-utility role for which he’s best suited. The Braves would have Yastrzemski, Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuna Jr., Jurickson Profar and Eli White as a core outfield rotation.
If you extend it further, Yastrzemski and Profar could log DH time, as would catcher Drake Baldwin, who shares his position with Sean Murphy, and maybe even first baseman Matt Olson, with Profar filling at first to give Olson a break. And of course, Dubon can fill in pretty much anywhere. It’s a deep and versatile position group with a healthy blend of lefty, righty and switch-hitters.
The concern would be a sharp decline for Yastrzemski, as can certainly happen with a mid-30s veteran. He has seen a mild drop in sprint speed already, though he remains a canny baserunner and, at least through last season, can still play center field when needed. At the plate, Yastrzemski posted the best strike zone indicators of his career last season and showed no drop-off in exit velocity or bat speed.
Those swing metrics could pay off big time at Truist Park, as Yastrzemski is way above average in terms of pulling balls in the air, and his new park, with the Chop House section as a target, is typically welcoming to fly ball-generating lefty pull hitters. Good player, good fit, perhaps one year too long on the guarantee. — Doolittle
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The deal: Orioles sign 1B Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract
Grade: B
It’s fair to call this a stunning deal, although maybe less so once it was clear the Orioles had been in pursuit of Kyle Schwarber. This signing is as much about what it means to the Orioles as to what it means for the New York Mets to lose one of the most popular players in franchise history, a player who has averaged 42 home runs and 114 RBIs per 162 games in his career (and he played 162 each of the past two seasons). He’s a five-time All-Star, coming off a season in which he hit .272/.347/.524 — a career high in batting average — while hitting 38 home runs and an NL-leading 41 doubles.
Alonso’s value might have the widest difference in perception between what an average fan might think and the more analytical assessment from MLB front offices. That’s even aside from how much stake to put into his 2025 season, which was a much better all-around season at the plate than the previous two, with swing changes that resulted in a shorter swing and utilizing his hips more playing a big part in the improved batting average and contact rate. If those changes hold, Alonso should remain a productive hitter for at least the initial years of his contract, even as he enters his age-31 season.
As far as his overall value, Alonso has averaged 3.7 WAR per 162 games — a very good player for sure, but not necessarily the superstar level his home run and RBI totals suggest. Alonso tries hard on defense but lacks range. He hustles on the bases but lacks speed. He led the NL with 23 double plays hit into. His career OBP is .341 — good but not great. All this works to lower his overall value and helps explain why his market was soft when he was in free agency a year ago and why the Mets were willing to let him go despite his popularity in New York.
For the Orioles, they’ve now added Alonso and Taylor Ward, two right-handed sluggers who combined for 74 home runs in 2025. The Orioles tied for 11th in the majors in home runs in 2025, but they hit 44 fewer home runs than in 2024, so adding power was their clear offseason priority. Their first basemen — a combo of Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo and Ryan O’Hearn — were especially weak, ranking last in the majors with just 14 home runs and tied for last with 62 RBIs (they were 23rd in OPS). Alonso might end up at DH, or at least get some time there, but his power will fix a problem at first base.
His durability is a plus. His energy and enthusiasm — which Mets fans loved — are a plus, especially for an Orioles team that seemed to lack those characteristics last season. He’ll provide a jolt to a lineup that needed it. It’s interesting the O’s found themselves in this position, considering everyone thought a couple of years ago that they were printing position players. You could also argue that if the Orioles were going to make one big splash this offseason, it should have been for a front-line starting pitcher. Maybe they’ll surprise and do that as well.
The $31 million AAV, combined with Alonso’s age and lack of all-around game, limit the grade here, but he’ll help the Orioles, at least until the .220, 25-homer seasons pop up at the end of this deal.
As for the Mets, they’ve gone from Alonso to Mark Vientos, Edwin Diaz to Devin Williams, and Brandon Nimmo to Marcus Semien. Those are arguably all downgrades, so it’s hard to see the plan here. If Vientos can bounce back to his 2024 numbers, that will help replace Alonso’s offense (manager Carlos Mendoza already said Brett Baty will get the majority of time at third base), but the Mets still have holes at DH, left field and center field.
In the end, David Stearns did the analysis and decided Alonso isn’t a $150 million player and the Mets can find the offense elsewhere — or use some of that money to add to a rotation and bullpen that need help. It’s not often that a big-market team walks away from a face-of-the-franchise type of player like Alonso. We’ll see if that ultimately ends up as the right decision, but Stearns has a lot of work to do the rest of this offseason to get the Mets back to playoff contention. — Schoenfield
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The deal: Phillies re-sign DH Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $150 million deal
Grade: A
Let’s cut right to it: The Phillies had to re-sign Schwarber. It would be hard to envision the Phillies, a team with four consecutive playoff appearances and back-to-back NL East titles, winning a World Series without the slugger who in some fashion has replaced Bryce Harper as the central figure for the franchise. It’s no coincidence that the Phillies’ run of success overlapped with signing Schwarber to a four-year, $79 million contract after the 2021 season.
During those four seasons, Schwarber averaged 47 home runs, 107 runs and 108 RBIs while hitting .226/.349/.507. He’s been a rock of stability, averaging 157 games, and over those four years, he tied for second in the majors in home runs (with Shohei Ohtani) while ranking fourth in RBIs, fifth in runs scored and third in walks. His game is simple: He’s trying to hit the ball 500 feet with every massive swing. He hits bombs, he takes his walks, and he strikes out with the gusto of Mighty Casey. That approach worked better than ever in 2025, when he led the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs while hitting .240/.365/.563 and finishing behind only Ohtani in the MVP voting.
Collectively, the Phillies’ offense has remained remarkably consistent, scoring between 778 and 794 runs the past three seasons, but that offense has become increasingly reliant on three players: Schwarber, Harper and Trea Turner. While the Phillies had 10 players hit at least 10 home runs, only Schwarber and Harper topped 20. Those three combined for about 77 runs created above average while the rest of the offense was a combined minus-38 runs below average.
Losing Schwarber would have opened up an enormous hole in the lineup — and while the Phillies were the clear favorite to re-sign Schwarber all along, there was a lot of interest in him from other teams, enough to create believable speculation that he could move on, possibly to the Cincinnati Reds (the team he grew up rooting for) or even to the rival New York Mets, at least if the Mets and Pete Alonso ended up parting ways. In the end, the Phillies did what they had to, even if it perhaps meant giving Schwarber an additional season based on projected contracts (Kiley McDaniel predicted a four-year, $128 million deal in his free agent rankings).
Schwarber will be entering his age-33 season, so this deal isn’t without risk. He’s coming off his best season, largely due to a dramatic improvement against left-handers, hitting .252/.366/.598 with 23 home runs, after hitting .228/.347/.436 against them from 2022 to 2024. But maybe that improvement is for real: He hit .300 with 12 home runs against lefties in 2024, so this is now consecutive seasons he’s hit well against same-side pitching.
As for how he might age, his raw power skills remain elite so those should remain stable for the immediate future: 100th percentile hard-hit rate in 2025, 98th percentile bat speed, 90th percentile chase rate. He swings at strikes, he swings hard, and he hits it hard. As a power-hitting DH, Schwarber draws comparisons to David Ortiz, who aged remarkably well (having one of his greatest seasons in his final year at age 40). That’s not necessarily the best comparison, however, because in his mid-30s, Ortiz transformed into a much better contact hitter, cutting his strikeout rate from 22.6% in his age 33/34 seasons to 14.5% the rest of his career. That’s not likely to happen with Schwarber, who fanned 27.2% of the time in 2025.
Still, Schwarber projects as one of the best run producers in the game, and it’s reasonable to expect at least solid production all the way through his age-37 season. The Phillies still have some holes to address: re-signing or replacing catcher J.T. Realmuto, perhaps re-signing or replacing Ranger Suarez in the rotation, finding a left fielder, maybe moving on from Alec Bohm at third base. But Schwarbs is back. And that makes the Phillies World Series contenders once again. — Schoenfield
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The deal: Dodgers sign RHP Edwin Diaz to a three-year, $69 million deal
Grade: A
It’s a bad idea to sign a relief pitcher to a long-term contract. But it’s not a bad idea to sign Edwin Diaz to a long-term contract, and it’s especially not a bad idea for the Los Angeles Dodgers to do so.
You could get really cynical or optimistic about this — whether you’re a Dodgers fan or not. The Dodgers’ bullpen plan a year ago was to stock the roster with a ridiculous list of big-name relievers who had all worked in the closing role for various teams. The depth chart was eye-popping: Blake Treinen, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Kirby Yates and Michael Kopech. The plan did not work. Each of those pitchers struggled with injuries, performance or both.
That being the base, you could point at the Diaz signing as an expression of Dodger hubris: They did not learn the most basic of bullpen-building lessons, that there is no such thing as certainty with that position group, no matter how much money you spend on it. Of that quintet, only Scott and Treinen remain on the roster.
So, sure, any and every reliever is a risk, but for the Dodgers, Diaz is more than worth it. Few relievers truly separate themselves from the pack and maintain their status for an extended period of time. Diaz is one of them, and this deal — strange as it is to say about a reliever — is a bargain, even if the $23 million average annual value is a record for a bullpenner.
Over the past five years, only Emmanuel Clase has earned more fWAR (8.1) than Diaz among relievers, and Diaz missed the entire 2023 season with a knee injury. During that span, only Mason Miller has a higher strikeout rate among relievers (14.3 K/9 for Diaz) and only Cade Smith has a better fielding-independent ERA than Diaz’s 2.14.
Diaz is 31, but last season was one of his best (1.63 ERA, 28 saves in 31 chances), and his underlying traits remain elite. According to Statcast, Diaz rated in the 99th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, whiff rate and strikeout rate. His command wavers periodically but his nasty four-seamer/slider combo allows him to work out of jams when it does.
For the Dodgers’ depth chart, adding Diaz provides clarity where last year’s did not. Having all of those different closer types was nice, but who gets the ninth and in what situation? Now the ninth belongs to Diaz, and the rest of the bullpen plan becomes that much easier to set up on a game-by-game basis, with Treinen and Scott becoming a lethal setup combo if they regress to the better versions of themselves.
And of course, with the Dodgers landing Diaz, that means none of their chief competitors will have him, including the Mets. New York goes from possibly having a much upgraded back of the bullpen with a Diaz/Devin Williams combination to a dynamic in which Williams is now serving as Diaz’s replacement. It could be a lot worse because Williams is very good, but it’s not the kind of outlook Mets fans might have envisioned as recently as Tuesday morning.
The bargain aspect of the deal is the length — three years, which is a hedge against Diaz’s age. He’s been a good health bet except for a fluky knee injury and his stuff has shown no decline. But he’s still a power pitcher who throws a lot of high-spin sliders who is on the wrong side of 30.
You have to wonder how many teams could have landed Diaz on a three-year deal. Surely some were willing to go to four years at least, perhaps at a lower AAV but with more overall value. But this is what the Dodgers have become — a destination. And their uniforms — not to mention the super-swag championship rings that go with them — are becoming status symbols among baseball’s elite in the way that super-yachts have become the darlings of the mega-wealthy.
The Dodgers, already a definitive favorite to win a third straight World Series, have solidified that status by a few more percentage points. And all it cost them was money, a resource that for them has become all but irrelevant. That is increasingly what puts the Dodgers on the hilltop, and makes the climb for everyone else that much more difficult to complete. — Doolittle
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Mariners get:
LHP Jose Ferrer
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Nationals get:
C Harry Ford
RHP Isaac Lyon
Mariners grade: C+
Well, the verdict is in from Mariners fans: They universally hate this trade. (It’s not often you get an entire fan base to agree on something.) Their feelings are understandable. Ford was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2021 and progressed nicely, advancing one level per season and hitting .283/.408/.460 in 2025 at Triple-A. He has remained a top-100 prospect all along, including No. 65 on ESPN’s updated list from August. Sure, he’s blocked by Cal Raleigh, but he projected as the backup catcher and part-time DH in 2026.
The return? A lefty reliever with a 4.48 ERA. It certainly feels a little light for a top-100 prospect — and a hard-to-find catching prospect — but that ERA undersells Ferrer’s potential. He throws a 98 mph sinker 70% of the time that helped him register one of the highest ground ball rates in the majors (99th percentile). He throws strikes (16 walks in 76.1 innings) and dominated left-handed batters (holding them to a .186 average and .521 OPS).
With Gabe Speier the only reliable lefty in the bullpen, the Mariners needed a second lefty and, after ending the season as the Nationals’ closer, Ferrer certainly can slot into a high-leverage role. He’s exactly what teams want in the postseason: a hard-throwing reliever. Scouts like his secondary stuff and the Mariners no doubt will have Ferrer use his slider and changeup more often, which could take him to an elite level.
Nationals grade: A-
The first major transaction from Paul Toboni, the Nationals’ new president of baseball operations, looks like a good one. Anytime you can turn a reliever into a possible long-term starting position player, that’s a win. We’ll hedge the grade here a bit since Ford hasn’t proved himself on the major league level, plus he projects more as a solid regular than a future star, but he should be a significant upgrade at a position that saw the Nationals rank 29th in the majors in OPS.
Indeed, Keibert Ruiz was supposed to be the answer behind the plate for the Nationals when they acquired him in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner with the Dodgers, but he has gone backward since a solid season in 2023, producing an unacceptable .595 OPS in 2025. Ford’s biggest strength is an excellent approach at the plate that produced a 16.2% walk rate in Triple-A while striking out less than 20% of the time. With a career .405 OBP in the minors, he could eventually become a top-of-the-order hitter as he also runs well. (He stole 34 bases in 2024.) The power is only moderate and the defense still needs some work around the edges, but Ford should take over as the regular catcher in 2026. — Schoenfield
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Red Sox get:
RHP Johan Oviedo
LHP Tyler Samaniego
C Adonys Guzman
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Pirates get:
OF Jhostynxon Garcia
RHP Jesus Travieso
Red Sox grade: B-
The American League East is clearly all-in. The Toronto Blue Jays have signed Dylan Cease and Korean League MVP Cody Ponce for their rotation. The Baltimore Orioles signed Ryan Helsley and traded for Taylor Ward and Andrew Kittredge. The Tampa Bay Rays have added outfielders Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley and reliever Steven Wilson. And now the Boston Red Sox have acquired Oviedo after trading for Sonny Gray last week. (The New York Yankees? Trent Grisham accepted their qualifying offer, so he’s back.)
While there were other players involved in this trade between Boston and the Pittsburgh Pirates, it’s mostly Oviedo-for-Garcia, so let’s focus on those two. Oviedo is sort of the polar opposite of Gray, other than the fact that both are right-handers: Oviedo is 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds with a fastball that touches 98 mph while Gray is 5-10 and doesn’t throw hard; Gray has been reasonably healthy while Oviedo missed all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery; Gray pounds the strike zone while Oviedo’s control problems have always limited his value (in nine starts in 2025, he averaged 5.1 walks per nine).
Oviedo leans mostly on a fastball/slider, mixing in a curveball and changeup that he uses primarily against left-handers. In his one full season as a starter with the Pirates in 2023, he made 32 starts with a 4.31 ERA and 2.2 WAR, making him essentially a league-average starter. In his abbreviated return of 40 innings in 2025, improved movement on his four-seamer helped limit damage against that pitch as he posted career highs in strikeout rate (24.7%) and batting average allowed (.182) to go along with the high walk rate.
There is obvious upside here, especially if the better results against left-handed hitters in 2025 are for real. In his two years as Red Sox pitching coach, Andrew Bailey has extracted improvement from the likes of Tanner Houck in 2024 (although he got hurt in 2025) and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito in 2025, so it will be interesting to see what Bailey can do with Oviedo. For now, Oviedo projects as a fourth/fifth starter with two seasons of team control and gives the Red Sox plenty of rotation depth: They have Garrett Crochet, Gray, Bello, Kyle Harrison, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and Hunter Dobbins, with Patrick Sandoval returning from injury (Houck is likely out for the season after TJ surgery).
With Oviedo set to make an estimated $2 million, it also leaves the Red Sox plenty of payroll room to make a big splash in free agency — like re-signing Alex Bregman.
Pirates grade: B+
Garcia owns one of the best nicknames in the sport — “The Password” — and is a toolsy soon-to-be 23-year-old who will have a chance to start in a Pirates outfield that ranked 27th in the majors in OPS in 2025. There was no room for him in an already crowded Red Sox outfield, so don’t view them trading him as a sign they weren’t high on his ability.
He is a high-risk player — but the kind of gamble the Pirates need to take. He hit .267/.340/.470 with 21 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this year, but that came with a 131/45 strikeout-to-walk ratio that included a high chase rate, especially after his promotion to Triple-A. He could stick in center field — depending on what the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz — but probably projects best as an above-average defender in right field. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had ranked him as the No. 3 prospect in the Red Sox system in his update this past August.
Garcia could turn into an above-average starter if he improves his chase or could be more of a fourth outfielder with a sub-.300 OBP if he doesn’t. The Pirates, of course, haven’t exactly excelled at turning prospects into good hitters (see Cruz’s regression in 2025), so odds are Garcia probably swings more to the latter scenario. But he’s a nice return for two years of Oviedo. — Schoenfield
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The deal: Three years, $30 million
Grade: A-
The last time we saw Cody Ponce in the majors he was one of the worst pitchers in the league. Pitching primarily in relief for the Pirates in 2021, he ranked 426th in ERA out of 436 pitchers with at least 35 innings. He ranked 436th out of 436 in batting average allowed and also ranked 436th in OPS allowed.
Ponce went to Japan in 2022, pitched there for three seasons with mixed results and then joined Hanwha in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2025, where he went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 180⅔ innings to win league MVP honors. Whereas his fastball averaged 93.2 mph with Pittsburgh in 2021, the 6-foot-6 right-hander now sits around 95 mph and gets it up to 99, while mixing in a cutter, curveball and changeup — the changeup being a new pitch that led to an impressive 36% strikeout rate in the KBO.
Now, the KBO is not MLB. This grade isn’t predicting that Ponce is going to be a Cy Young contender but reflective of the contract. At three years and $30 million, it’s a worthy gamble for the Blue Jays. If he’s a 1-WAR pitcher for three years, he’ll at least earn the money back. If he’s a 2-WAR pitcher, it’s a great deal. If he’s a 3-WAR pitcher over the next three seasons, it will be one of the best deals of the offseason.
There have been success stories from U.S. pitchers who went to the KBO and then returned as better pitchers. Merrill Kelly came back in 2019 at age 30 and has averaged 3.3 WAR per 162 games. Erick Fedde went to Korea in 2023 and won MVP honors then returned with a 5.6-WAR season in 2024 (although he faded in 2025). Ponce throws harder than those two. I like his chances to be a midrotation starter, with the bullpen as a nice fallback.
After officially signing Dylan Cease, the Blue Jays are now rolling out a rotation that includes Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios, Eric Lauer and Ponce. Berrios ended the season with right elbow inflammation, so he has a red flag next to his health status, but that’s a seven-man group that should help make the Blue Jays the preseason favorite in the AL East — especially if they also re-sign infielder Bo Bichette.
Their payroll is now clocking in at an estimated $272 million without Bichette, up from $258 million last season (via FanGraphs), but the Blue Jays have made it clear: They want one more win in 2026 and will pay to try to get it. — Schoenfield
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The deal: Three years, $51 million
Grade: B-
Consider these two seasons from two-time All-Star reliever Devin Williams, who has agreed to a three-year contract with the New York Mets:
Season A: 37.7% SO rate, 12.1% BB rate, 1.7% HR rate, .129 BA
Season B: 34.8% SO rate, 9.7% BB rate, 1.9% HR rate, .197 BA
The first one is a little better, but they’re pretty close other than a spike in batting average allowed, which is somewhat canceled out by a lower walk rate. Those seasons should have produced similar results.
They did not.
Season A was 2023, when Williams went 8-3 with a 1.53 ERA and 36 saves for the Brewers and was regarded as perhaps the best closer in the majors. Season B was 2025, when Williams went 4-6 with a 4.79 ERA for the Yankees, lost his job as closer and faced headlines like “Devin Deadly Sins” after a particularly rough outing in August.
But the numbers indicate at least why the Mets were willing to give Williams a $50 million-plus deal (with a reported $5 million in annual deferrals) coming off his shaky season with the Yankees. The peripheral numbers remained excellent, the home run rate wasn’t as high as Yankees fans would lead you to believe, and David Stearns — who ran baseball operations in Milwaukee when Williams was there and is now in that position with the Mets — is still buying that Williams’ changeup/fastball combo can return him to an elite level.
That’s certainly possible. Williams’ ERA was bloated largely because of a handful of terrible outings: He gave up three or more runs in six games with the Yankees — more times than in his career up to 2025. It’s also true that his changeup, which he has thrown more often than his fastball in his career, wasn’t as dominant. All five home runs he gave up came on his changeup, compared to six on his changeup in 235 innings entering 2025. The whiff rate on the pitch also fell under 40% for the first time, which in turn made his 94 mph four-seamer a little less effective.
It’s nothing that can’t be fixed with a little more consistency, but there’s also no guarantee Williams returns to his performance with the Brewers. Maybe hitters are finally figuring him out a bit. Maybe he lost some confidence after he served up a series-losing home run to Pete Alonso in the 2024 playoffs. All that adds some risk to the contract, especially factoring in that Williams’ struggles coincided with his shift from small-market Milwaukee to pressure-packed New York — and that won’t change in moving from the Bronx to Queens.
It’s also possible Williams ends up being a very expensive setup man. Longtime Mets closer Edwin Diaz remains a free agent after opting out of his deal, but reports indicate the Mets are still interested in re-signing Diaz (who could be looking for something like the five-year, $95 million deal Josh Hader signed with the Astros).
If Diaz does return, the Mets would be on their way to building the most expensive bullpen in history, with A.J. Minter already on the books for $11 million, Brooks Raley for $4.75 million and a few other holes yet to be filled. Hey, considering what happened in 2025 — from June 1 on, the Mets were 25th in bullpen ERA, even with Diaz — it’s probably a good idea to spend on what faltered at the end of last season. Williams and Diaz at their best would give the Mets the best 1-2 late-game duo in the majors. — Schoenfield
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The deal: 2 years, $28 million, player option after 2026 season
Grade: C+
With Felix Bautista down for most, if not all, of the 2026 season because of shoulder surgery, Baltimore had a need for an end-of-the-game reliever. Helsley had been filling that precise role well for the Cardinals for several seasons, before he embarked on a short-lived Mets career that both he and the team would like to forget.
Barring an obvious and measurable drop in stuff, you always want to lean more on baseline performance when it comes to a reliever than the fluctuations that come with year-over-year results. Over the last three seasons, Helsley is one of 12 relievers with at least 4.0 fWAR in the aggregate and only seven have posted more saves than Helsley’s 84.
Primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, Helsley reportedly began tipping his pitches at some point in 2025 and opposing batters began ambushing his heater early in counts with much success. He ended up giving up a .422 average and .667 slugging on his four-seamer last season even though his average velocity (in excess of 99 mph) and spin rate was in line with past seasons.
The hope would be that Helsley fixes (or has fixed) the issue and once again is able to pair his high-speed fastball with his high-performing slider, a combo which helped him save 49 games for St. Louis in 2024. The structure of this deal gives him a shot at reentering the market next season after hopefully proving that his performance with the Mets was a fluke.
For the Orioles, Helsley slides into the primary saves role after some early chatter in free agency suggested some teams were looking at him as a possible rotation conversion. The contract is a bit of a risk if Helsley doesn’t perform and declines to opt out, as a $14 million average annual value is what you would want to be paying a first-division closer, not a just-a-guy reliever.
At his best, Helsley has been an All-Star-level, high-leverage reliever for multiple seasons, and the Orioles clearly think that his Mets misadventure was a blip, not his new reality. — Doolittle
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The deal: 7 years, $210 million
Grade: B
One of the interesting aspects of MLB free agency is that the number of suitors for a player isn’t always directly correlated to on-field value. There are, after all, only so many teams willing and able to spend nine figures. In recent years, we’ve seen excellent players like Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell settle for shorter-term deals late in the offseason as they waited for that big long-term offer that never came — or was pulled off the table.
In the case of Dylan Cease, it makes a lot of sense for him to sign early while the money is there. He’s a pitcher with clear skills and ability but also frustratingly inconsistent results, which was going to lead to a wide variance in how teams evaluated him — and thus what offers he received. The $210 million deal the Toronto Blue Jays gave Cease is closer to the high end for him, given Kiley McDaniel’s projection of five years, $145 million.
The positive:
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Pure stuff: The “Stuff+” metric — which various sites now calculate based on a whole host of things like spin, movement and velocity — rates Cease’s pitches as some of the best in the majors, including a fastball that averages 97 mph. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2025, he tied for 12th in Stuff+ per FanGraphs.
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Durability: Cease is riding a streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts. Since 2021, he’s first in the majors in games started and seventh in innings. Considering the best predictor for future injuries is past injuries, that health history and projected durability give him a high floor for any future deal.
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Age: He’s entering his age-30 season, clearly still in his prime years.
The negative:
-
His ERA has jumped from 2.20 to 4.58 to 3.47 to 4.55 over the past four seasons with corresponding changes in his value, from 6.4 WAR in 2022 with the Chicago White Sox to just 1.1 with the San Diego Padres in 2025, when he had a high ERA despite pitching in a good pitcher’s park. His road ERA in 2025 was 5.58, which is certainly a concern as he now goes to a better-hitting division and better hitter’s park.
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His lack of efficiency not only leads to too many walks — he leads the majors over the past four seasons — but short outings due to high pitch counts. Cease failed to last five innings in 10 of his 32 starts, which is too often for a pitcher who just got $210 million.
In Cease’s best season in 2022, his slider was unhittable while his four-seamer and knuckle-curve were also effective, making him a three-pitch pitcher. The curveball hasn’t been nearly as effective since then, with batters slugging .576 against it in 2025, .444 in 2024 and .538 in 2023, making him more of a two-pitch guy now. He started throwing a sweeper and sinker a little more often last season, and maybe the continued development of those pitches will help him get back to being one of the better starters in the majors.
That’s what the Blue Jays are banking on. They’ll likely note that his Fielding Independent Pitching, which factors in only strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed — has been fairly consistent the past four years: 3.10, 3.72, 3.10 and 3.56, respectively. That averages out to 3.36, with his actual ERA rising and falling depending on the variations of his batting average on balls in play (.261 and .266 in ’22 and ’24, .331 and .323 in ’23 and ’25).
At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid middle-of-the rotation starter to go with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. The good version of Cease is a No. 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber is healthy for the entire season and Berrios’ late-season elbow inflammation was just temporary, that’s a rotation that could be as good as any in the game. We knew the Jays were going to strike big this offseason. This might not be their only move of consequence. — Schoenfield
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Red Sox get:
RHP Sonny Gray
$20 million in cash
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Cardinals get:
LHP Brandon Clarke
RHP Richard Fitts
Red Sox grade: B+
The Red Sox had three-fifths of an outstanding rotation in 2025, with Garrett Crochet leading the way and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito producing solid campaigns as the second and third starters. That was enough to get the Red Sox back into the postseason for the first time since 2021, but after Giolito declined his part of a $19 million mutual option, the Red Sox were looking for a veteran starter to replace him.
They landed on Gray, who is 36 years old but coming off a second straight 200-strikeout season while also leading National League starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Red Sox have reportedly restructured Gray’s deal to pay him $31 million in 2026 with a $10 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027, essentially turning this into a one-year rental at $41 million (with the Cardinals picking up half that tab). It’s certainly a great deal for Gray, who no doubt happily waived his no-trade clause to get out of St. Louis.
As for Gray the pitcher, he’s an interesting mix. When he can get to two strikes, he’s one of the best in the game, ranking fourth in the majors among starters with a nearly 52% strikeout rate (Crochet was first at 54.3%) while holding batters to a .135 average. His sweeper is his go-to strikeout pitch, registering 111 of his 201 strikeouts. His curveball generated a 34% whiff rate.
His problems came against his fastballs, as batters hit .370 and slugged .585 against his four-seamer (which he uses more against left-handed batters) and hit .281 and slugged .484 against his sinker (which he uses more against righties). He also throws a cutter, which he takes a little off on the velocity, but that was also similarly ineffective, with batters hitting .387 off it. The damage against his fastballs led to 25 home runs allowed and a 4.28 ERA, despite the excellent walk and strikeout numbers.
Can that be fixed? With a fastball that averages 92 mph, maybe not. Gray did throw his three fastball variants 53% of the time, so maybe the Red Sox suggest a different pitch mix — the four-seamer, while it gives him the one pitch Gray throws up in the zone, has been hammered two years in a row now, but was still the pitch he threw most often in 2025.
Overall, Gray plugs a big hole without the Red Sox paying out a long-term contract — and the Red Sox didn’t give up anybody who projected to be an impact player for them in 2026 (such as starters Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who debuted this past season and could be in the 2026 rotation).
Cardinals grade: C
It’s not exactly a salary dump, but it has the feel of one, although the Cardinals at least chipped in $20 million to get a little better return on the player side. Fitts could be a bottom-of-the-rotation guy, and given the holes in the St. Louis rotation, is almost certain to get that opportunity. His four-seam fastball, sitting 95-96, was an effective pitch in the 10 starts he made for the Red Sox in 2025, but he hasn’t really developed a trustworthy secondary offering. His slider got hit hard and didn’t generate enough swing-and-miss. Maybe his sweeper/curveball combo will eventually elevate his game, but he threw both less than 11% of the time.
Clarke, a hard-throwing lefty who has hit 100 mph, was drafted out of a Florida junior college in 2024. He had Tommy John surgery in high school and redshirted one year at Alabama with another injury. The Red Sox limited him to 14 starts and 38 innings in 2025 in Class A, where he registered both high strikeout numbers (60) and high walk totals (27). ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel rated him the No. 9 prospect in the Boston system in August and while there’s obvious upside if everything comes together, he’s not close to the majors and the profile screams reliever risk.
For the Cardinals, they’ve at least made their intentions clear: If 2025 was “re-set,” 2026 is going to be a rebuild. Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras could also all be traded before the winter is over. — Schoenfield
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Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
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Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Doolittle
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Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
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Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
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The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — Schoenfield
Sports
Utes’ Whittingham stepping down after 21 years
Published
4 hours agoon
December 13, 2025By
admin

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Kyle BonaguraDec 12, 2025, 08:07 PM ET
Close- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
Utah‘s Kyle Whittingham, the winningest coach in program history and one of the longest-tenured coaches in the FBS, will step down following the Utes’ appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31, the school announced Friday.
Whittingham, who has been with the program since 1994, was named head coach in December 2004 and amassed 177 wins, which ranks third among active FBS coaches.
“The time is right to step down from my position as the head football coach at the University of Utah,” Whittingham said in a statement. “It’s been an honor and a privilege to lead the program for the past 21 years and I’m very grateful for the relationships forged with all the players and assistant coaches that have worked so hard and proudly worn the drum and feather during our time here. The opportunity to guide so many talented young men as they pursued their goals — both on and off the field, has truly been a blessing.”
Whittingham, 66, led the Utes to three conference titles as head coach, two appearances in the Rose Bowl, two top-five finishes in the AP poll and an undefeated season in 2008, capped by a win against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. He earned national coach of the year honors in 2008 and 2019.
“The legacy that Kyle Whittingham leaves distinguishes him as one of the most impactful figures in the history of Utah Athletics,” Utah athletic director Mark Harlan said in a statement. “As the head coach or as an assistant, Coach Whitt played a pivotal role in the most historic and successful seasons in program history, and established championship expectations. Perhaps more importantly, he established a legacy of tremendous character, integrity and class. Kyle Whittingham will forever be appreciated and cherished for his leadership and achievement with Utah Football.”
Whittingham is expected to be succeeded by defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley, who Harlan announced as the head coach in waiting on July 1, 2024. Scalley joined the Utah staff in 2008 and has been the defensive coordinator for 10 seasons.
During Whittingham’s 21-year run as head coach, the Utes had 18 winning seasons, transitioning from the Mountain West to the Pac-12 and finally the Big 12. The Utes went 10-2 this season and were No. 15 in the final playoff rankings. His last game will be against Nebraska on New Year’s Eve.

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Kyle BonaguraDec 12, 2025, 05:07 PM ET
Close- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
Washington State named Missouri offensive coordinator Kirby Moore as the school’s new head coach, the school announced on Friday.
Moore agreed to a five-year deal, the school said.
Moore was hired by Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz as offensive coordinator before the 2023 season, and the Tigers have won 29 games over the past three years, including posting an 11-2 mark in 2023.
“Coach Moore is the real deal, and exactly who we needed to propel us to the top of the new Pac-12,” Washington State president Elizabeth Cantwell said in a statement. “Our student-athletes have lucked out. This man cares deeply not only about winning, but their success on and off the field.”
Moore will be introduced to the media at a press conference on Monday.
Moore emerged from a pool of candidates that also included Cal offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
Moore will replace Jimmy Rogers, who left WSU after one season to become the head coach at Iowa State. Moore will be the program’s fifth head coach since 2019, following Mike Leach, Nick Rolovich, Jake Dickert and Rogers.
“I’m honored and excited to join Washington State University as its new head football coach,” Moore said in a statement. “Becoming a first-time head coach at a special place like Washington State is a dream come true for my family and I.”
Prior to Missouri, Moore had a six-year stint at Fresno State, where he rose from wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator, coaching under Jeff Tedford and Kalen DeBoer. Moore’s coaching career started at the College of Idaho in 2014 before two seasons as a graduate assistant at Washington under Chris Petersen, for whom he played at Boise State.
Moore grew up in Prosser, Washington, where he played high school football for his father, Tom, alongside his brother, Kellen, the New Orleans Saints‘ head coach. The Moore brothers also played together at Boise State.
The Cougars went 6-6 this year and will play Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Dec. 22.
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