The Esso Fawley Oil Refinery, operated by Exxon Mobil, stands in Fawley, U.K., on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
Luke MacGregor | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The surprise output cut by OPEC and its allies sent oil prices rallying — and analysts say major oil importers like India, Japan and South Korea will feel the most pain if prices hit $100 per barrel, as some have predicted.
On Sunday, OPEC+ announced a production cut of 1.16 million barrels per day, in a move that oil markets were not expecting.
“It’s a tax on every oil importing economy,” said Pavel Molchanov, managing director of private investment bank Raymond James.
“It’s not the US that would feel the most pain from $100 oil, it would be the countries that have no domestic petroleum resources: Japan, India, Germany, France … to name some of the big examples,” Molchanov said.
The voluntary cuts by countries in the oil cartel are set to start in May and last till the end of 2023. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia will trim oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of this year, while other OPEC members like Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Algeria and Kazakhstan also reduce output.
Brent crude futures were last trading 0.57% higher at $85.41 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood 0.5% at $81.11 per barrel.
Countries heavily reliant on oil imports
“The regions most hit by the oil supply cut and related crude price jump are those with a high degree of import reliance and a high share of fossil fuels in their primary energy systems,” said director of Eurasia Group, Henning Gloystein.
If oil goes up further, even the discounted Russian crude will start to hurt India’s growth.
Henning Gloystein
director, Eurasia Group
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“Although they’re still profiting from discounted Russian gas they are already hurting from high coal and gas prices,” Gloystein said.
“If oil goes up further, even the discounted Russian crude will start to hurt India’s growth.”
Japan
Oil is the most significant energy source in Japan, and accounts for around 40% of its total energy supply.
“Having no notable domestic production, Japan is heavily dependent on crude oil imports, with between 80% to 90% coming from the Middle East region,” the International Energy Agency said.
South Korea
Likewise for South Korea, oil makes up the main bulk of its energy needs, according to independent research company Enerdata.
“South Korea and Italy are more than 75% dependent on imported oil,” Molchanov pointed out.
Europe and China are also “highly exposed,” according to Gloystein.
However, he added that China’s exposure was slightly less due to domestic oil production, while Europe as a whole relies mainly on nuclear, coal and natural gas rather than fossil fuel in their primary energy mix.
Impact on emerging economies
Some emerging markets that “do not have the foreign currency capability to support these fuel imports,” will be negatively impacted by the $100 price tag, said Molchanov. He named Argentina, Turkey, South Africa and Pakistan as potential economies that will be hit.
Sri Lanka, which does not produce oil domestically and is 100% dependent on imports, is also very susceptible to a harder hit, he said.
Cooling towers emiting vapor at the Leuna refinery and chemical industrial complex, home to refineries and plants operated by TotalEnergies in Leuna, Germany, on Tuesday, June 7, 2022.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“Countries with the least foreign currencies and who are importers will hurt the most because oil is priced in the U.S. dollar,” said founder of Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, who added that the cost of imports will rise even further if the greenback appreciates.
$100 per barrel won’t be permanent
However, while $100 per barrel may be within the horizon, the higher price point may not stay for long, said Molchanov, adding that it’s not going to be “the permanent plateau.”
“In the long run, prices could be more kind of in line with where we are today” — in the region of about $80 to $90 or so, he said.
“Once crude hits $100 a barrel and stays there for a bit, that incentivizes producers to really ramp up output again,” said Gloystein.
Waymo has poached a top Tesla audio engineer to lead the In-car Audio and Infotainment experience inside its autonomous vehicles.
Tesla and Waymo have a sort of rivalry as they are both working toward deploying autonomous driving systems.
Earlier this year, there was a little back and forth about having the biggest service area in Austin, even though the competition was sort of unfair since Waymo has been opreating a true level 4 autonmous driving system in the Texas capital while Tesla’s Robotaxi system is still being supervised by employees inside the vehicles.
Now, we learn that Waymo has poached Nikhil Satish, a top audio engineer from Tesla.
He announced on LinkedIn last week:
I’m happy to share that I’m starting a new position as Technical Leader of Audio Systems at Waymo!
Satish already had an extensive career in audio engineering with NVIDIA and Amazon before joining Tesla in 2021.
At Tesla, Satish led the audio engineering of the Cybertruck, which has been praised for its audio system.
The company even noted it yesterday:
More recently, he also led audio engineering on Tesla’s semi truck and humanoid robot programs, according to his LinkedIn profile.
Now, he will be the technical lead for in-car audio and infotainment experience at Waymo.
While Waymo’s core technology is autonomous driving, the audio and video experience is expected to be increasingly important as passengers can put their attention toward other things than driving.
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GM is suddenly shaking up electric vehicle production plans after issuing a stark warning. The automaker warned that new US policy changes, including killing off the $7,500 EV tax credit, will cost it at least $1.6 billion.
GM shifts plans as the EV tax credit expires
Although GM set another record by delivering 66,501 electric vehicles in the third quarter, it’s bracing for a much different market over the next few months.
In an SEC filing on Tuesday, GM said that “following recent US Government changes, including the termination of certain consumer tax incentives for EV purchases and the reduction in the stringency of emissions regulations, we expect the adoption rate of EVs to slow.”
Although it didn’t reveal specifics, GM said the policy changes “have caused us to reassess our EV capacity and manufacturing footprint.”
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The changes do not impact Chevy, GMC, and Cadillac electric vehicles currently in production, and GM expects they will remain available for buyers.
The “strategic realignment” will cost it at least $1.6 billion. GM said $1.2 billion of the charges will be non-cash as it adjusts EV capacity. The other $400 million is primarily due to contract cancellation fees and “commercial settlements associated with EV-related investments,” according to GM’s filing. That will have a cash impact.
2025 Chevy Equinox EV LT (Source: GM)
GM is also reassessing investments in battery manufacturing. The company said discussions are still ongoing, adding that it’s “reasonably possible” it will absorb additional costs due to the changes.
The charges, which were approved by the board on October 7, will be included in GM’s third-quarter earnings. We will learn more when GM reports Q3 earnings results next week on October 21.
Cadillac Optiq EV (Source: Cadillac)
Although GM and crosstown rival Ford were planning to launch programs designed to extend the $7,500 EV credit, both have since abandoned those plans. Instead, GM will provide about $6,000 of its own cash for a limited time to support EV leasing.
Electrek’s Take
Through the first nine months of 2025, GM sold 144,688 EVs, more than double the amount it sold in the same period last year.
The Chevy Equinox EV has been GM’s biggest hit, ranking as the third best-selling EV behind the Tesla Model Y and Model 3. Cadillac was the leading EV luxury brand in Q3 with three of the top 10 most popular models in the segment: the Lyriq (#2), Optiq (#5), and Vistiq (#6).
GMC is on pace for its best year ever, with the new Sierra EV rolling out and demand for the Hummer EV picking up. With the $7,500 EV tax credit now expired, GM, like most automakers, is preparing for slower EV adoption in the US.
The policy changes, including dropping the $7,500 tax credit, will only put the US further behind China, South Korea, and others leading the global push for electric vehicles.
We should learn more about GM’s updated EV production plans next week when it reports Q3 earnings on October 21. Check back for updates.
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What if your morning commute didn’t involve gridlock on the 395 or the Orange Line crawl, but instead meant silently flying over the Potomac River at 30 knots? That’s exactly what Stockholm-based Candela is bringing to Washington D.C. this week with the U.S. demo debut of its flying electric boats.
While it doesn’t appear to be a permanent route nor make use of the company’s latest flagship commercial vessel, the P-12 shuttle, the demonstration set up near the Swedish embassy will illustrate just how effective the alternative commuting method truly is.
Starting October 17th, Candela will be showcasing media test rides on the Potomac using its C-8 flying vessel to demonstrate how its revolutionary electric hydrofoil ferry – the Candela P-12 – could transform city commutes. With wings hidden beneath the water and a high-tech flight controller regulating the ride, the P-12 lifts out of the water and literally flies above the surface, reducing drag by 80% and gliding without creating a wake.
The demonstration underscores how this level of speed and efficiency could actually change how people move around the D.C. metro area. A typical commute from Georgetown to Reagan Airport? By car, that’s around 20 minutes. On public transit, 37. On the P-12? Just six minutes. Similarly, a water ride from Alexandria to The Wharf would be a quick and quiet 10-minute journey – likely faster than your rideshare app can even find a driver during rush hour.
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The Candela P-12 is more than just a speedy commuter; it’s also quiet, clean, and surprisingly comfortable. Its computer-controlled hydrofoils make for a ride that’s smooth enough to prevent seasickness, and the onboard C-POD electric motor hums along with no noise or vibration. With no slamming into waves and no diesel fumes to choke on, the whole thing feels more like riding a luxury train than a boat.
And while this might sound like the kind of futuristic tech you’ll hear about once and never again, Candela is already proving this model works. In Stockholm, the P-12 has already been integrated into the city’s public transport system, where it’s cut some routes’ travel times in half and delivered a quieter, cheaper, and greener commute. Similar projects are in the works for Lake Tahoe, Mumbai, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia – with more than 40 boats already on order, making it the best-selling electric passenger vessel in the world.
Candela says operating costs are about 60% lower than diesel-powered vessels, which puts them in line with land-based mass transit options like buses. In cities like D.C., where shoreline erosion and speed restrictions limit traditional ferries, the P-12’s wake-free cruising means it can get exemptions and run at high speeds even in no-wake zones. That opens up a whole new layer of transport.
“We’re not merely replacing diesel ferries — we’re enabling a new layer of transport by utilizing the underused waterways,” said Gustav Hasselskog, Candela’s founder and CEO. “We’re already in discussions with several U.S. companies that see the potential of using flying electric vessels to bypass congestion.”
The Washington D.C. demo is timed to coincide with the Swedish Green Transition Summit, a forum focused on sustainable innovation, and will run through October 23rd from a launch site adjacent to the Swedish Embassy. It’s part marketing, part diplomacy, and part real-world proof of concept that urban waterborne transit doesn’t have to be slow, loud, or dirty.
For a city surrounded by rivers and plagued by congestion, Candela’s pitch is clear: don’t pave more roads – just fly over the water. If the P-12 delivers in D.C. the way it has in Sweden, this could be the start of an entirely new commute for many more U.S. cities.
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