The Esso Fawley Oil Refinery, operated by Exxon Mobil, stands in Fawley, U.K., on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
Luke MacGregor | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The surprise output cut by OPEC and its allies sent oil prices rallying — and analysts say major oil importers like India, Japan and South Korea will feel the most pain if prices hit $100 per barrel, as some have predicted.
On Sunday, OPEC+ announced a production cut of 1.16 million barrels per day, in a move that oil markets were not expecting.
“It’s a tax on every oil importing economy,” said Pavel Molchanov, managing director of private investment bank Raymond James.
“It’s not the US that would feel the most pain from $100 oil, it would be the countries that have no domestic petroleum resources: Japan, India, Germany, France … to name some of the big examples,” Molchanov said.
The voluntary cuts by countries in the oil cartel are set to start in May and last till the end of 2023. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia will trim oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of this year, while other OPEC members like Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Algeria and Kazakhstan also reduce output.
Brent crude futures were last trading 0.57% higher at $85.41 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood 0.5% at $81.11 per barrel.
Countries heavily reliant on oil imports
“The regions most hit by the oil supply cut and related crude price jump are those with a high degree of import reliance and a high share of fossil fuels in their primary energy systems,” said director of Eurasia Group, Henning Gloystein.
If oil goes up further, even the discounted Russian crude will start to hurt India’s growth.
Henning Gloystein
director, Eurasia Group
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“Although they’re still profiting from discounted Russian gas they are already hurting from high coal and gas prices,” Gloystein said.
“If oil goes up further, even the discounted Russian crude will start to hurt India’s growth.”
Japan
Oil is the most significant energy source in Japan, and accounts for around 40% of its total energy supply.
“Having no notable domestic production, Japan is heavily dependent on crude oil imports, with between 80% to 90% coming from the Middle East region,” the International Energy Agency said.
South Korea
Likewise for South Korea, oil makes up the main bulk of its energy needs, according to independent research company Enerdata.
“South Korea and Italy are more than 75% dependent on imported oil,” Molchanov pointed out.
Europe and China are also “highly exposed,” according to Gloystein.
However, he added that China’s exposure was slightly less due to domestic oil production, while Europe as a whole relies mainly on nuclear, coal and natural gas rather than fossil fuel in their primary energy mix.
Impact on emerging economies
Some emerging markets that “do not have the foreign currency capability to support these fuel imports,” will be negatively impacted by the $100 price tag, said Molchanov. He named Argentina, Turkey, South Africa and Pakistan as potential economies that will be hit.
Sri Lanka, which does not produce oil domestically and is 100% dependent on imports, is also very susceptible to a harder hit, he said.
Cooling towers emiting vapor at the Leuna refinery and chemical industrial complex, home to refineries and plants operated by TotalEnergies in Leuna, Germany, on Tuesday, June 7, 2022.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“Countries with the least foreign currencies and who are importers will hurt the most because oil is priced in the U.S. dollar,” said founder of Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, who added that the cost of imports will rise even further if the greenback appreciates.
$100 per barrel won’t be permanent
However, while $100 per barrel may be within the horizon, the higher price point may not stay for long, said Molchanov, adding that it’s not going to be “the permanent plateau.”
“In the long run, prices could be more kind of in line with where we are today” — in the region of about $80 to $90 or so, he said.
“Once crude hits $100 a barrel and stays there for a bit, that incentivizes producers to really ramp up output again,” said Gloystein.
Tesla has partnered with Steak ‘n Shake to deploy Superchargers at up to more than 100 restaurant locations.
The partnership between Tesla and the American fast food chain has been revealed through a strange series of posts on X.
First, Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented on Steak ‘n Shake’s announcement that it is switching from using seed oils to beef tallow.
The restaurant responded by proposing “Tesla charging stations at Steak n Shake”, but they apparently didn’t know that it was already happening as Tesla responded that they had already signed on 6 sites and they have over 20 more in review:
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The Steak n Shake account responded by suggesting that the partnership extend to over 100 locations:
Thank you Tesla Charging! Let’s do over 100 locations. Consider all sites approved!
The chain operates over 400 locations around the world – many of them in the midwest. A lot of these locations are located near highways, where Tesla prefers to deploy charging stations.
It’s not the first time that Tesla has partnered with a restaurant for multiple Supercharger locations. It also has a deal with Ruby Tuesday.
Volkswagen’s electric SUV is making a comeback. Last month, the Volkswagen ID.4 topped Tesla’s Model Y to become the best-selling EV in Europe, and it was even in the top three in the US.
Volkswagen ID.4 was EU’s best-selling EV, top 3 in the US
Although new vehicle registrations fell 2% in Europe last month, electric vehicles were a bright spot, with BEV sales up 37% from the year prior.
According to JATO Dynamics, 165,473 EVs were registered in Europe in January. The Volkswagen ID.4 took the top spot after registrations surged 195% to 7,177, overtaking the Tesla Model Y.
Tesla Model Y registrations plunged 46% in Europe last month to 6,155. The Model 3 refresh, which was launched in late 2023, had a 44% decline in registrations. Overall, Tesla registered only 9,913 vehicles in January 2025, a 45% decline from last year.
best-selling EVs and PHEVs in Europe in January 2025 (Source: JATO Dynamics)
Felipe Munoz, Global Analyst at JATO said the solid performance of EVs is “particularly impressive given the significant dip in sales that Tesla experienced” in January.
He explained, “it’s not unusual for sales to drop just before a new generation or an updated model is introduced to the market.”
Tesla vehicle registrations in Europe in January (Source: JATO Dynamics)
Although sales are expected to pick up again, Munoz added, “The performance of both the Model 3 and Model Y is an indication of the declining popularity of Tesla in Europe overall.”
Volkswagen is taking advantage with the ID.4 taking the top spot, and the ID.7 placing third with 5,879 registrations, up 657% from January 2024.
Volkswagen ID.4 (Source: Volkswagen)
Kia’s mass-market EV3h launched in late 2024, took fourth with 5,792, while the Skoda Enyaq rounded out the top five.
Chinese automakers, like BYD and MG, are starting to gain some real traction in Europe. With 37,134 vehicles registered last month, up 52% from January 2024, Chinese brands accounted for 3.7% of the market. That’s up from the 2.4% market share in January 2024.
Chinese auto brands market share in Europe (Source: JATO Dynamics)
Although still a relatively small number, combined, it would put them ahead of Ford, which registered 35,790 vehicles in Europe last month.
Electrek’s Take
The ID.4 appears to be making a comeback. After it went back on sale early last month, Volkswagen’s ID.4 was already the third best-selling EV in the US in January behind Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3.
Despite its success in Europe and the US, Volkswagen, like most global OEMs, is struggling in China. VW’s Chinese joint venture with SAIC cut the price of the ID.4 X, its version of the electric SUV sold in China, to under $20,000 (139,900 yuan) this week.
With leases starting as low as $189 per month in the US, it’s no wonder the ID.4 is already a top seller. If you’re ready to check it out for yourself, you can use our link to find deals on the Volkswagen ID.4 in your area.
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However, it looks like Musk and Tesla are actively suppressing employees speaking out.
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The New York Times reports that Tesla has fired Jared Ottmann, a manager of battery thermal supplier industrialization engineering, over his complaints about Musk.
Ottmann, who has been at Tesla for 6 years, says that he has been raising concerns internally about Musk’s use of social media for the last 3 years, but he ramped up his effort last month after Musk’s salute at the Trump inauguration.
The engineer specifically took offense to a tweet that Musk posted in the aftermath of the inauguration. Instead of apologizing and saying that he didn’t mean to make a Nazi salute, Musk decided to attack the media for even suggesting that the gesture was a Sieg Heiland tweeted this:
Ottmann commented on the post:
This post by Tesla’s current CEO name drops genocidal assholes as a joke and has 308,000 likes.
The engineer says that he raised the issue with Tesla and while he gets “personally support”, he says the company remains silent about Musk’s behavior:
Starting in 2022 and especially the last week I’ve raised the issue internally multiple times, with managers, HR, legal compliance, investor relations. And while overwhelmingly people offer personal support, Tesla as a company has remained silent.
Ottmann, who has been promoted 4 times in 6 years at Tesla, has now been let go.
Electrek’s Take
For a guy who calls himself a “free speech absolutist” and “anti-cancel culture”, he canceled this engineer pretty quickly when he didn’t like how he was exercising his free speech.
This is obviously an attempt at scaring other Tesla employees from speaking out at Tesla.
It’s one of my main concerns about the automaker: it’s not a meritocracy that attracts top engineering talent anymore. One of the main criteria to work at Tesla now is to support its CEO, who is off the deep end.
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