How Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner turned failure into success
Mistakes. Goaltenders find them maddening. They also find them helpful. Notice how they act after giving up a goal. Sure, they react in the ways one would expect. But they also look up at the videoboard to assess what went wrong so they can learn from those miscues.
This is the exact process Edmonton Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner cites when talking about how he’s arrived at this stage in his career and his life.
He readily admits he’s a product of failure. He doesn’t hide from the fact that when he was younger — a self-described “scrawny kid” — he couldn’t do even 10 pushups and would vomit after doing one set of stairs or most any other physical workout.
Then there was the night in Wichita, Kansas, when he was the goalie for the Wichita Thunder of the ECHL. Skinner recalls giving up nine goals. League records show it was eight, but the point remains the same.
“I remember hanging out with [Oilers defenseman Vincent Desharnais]. We went back to our apartment and I remember saying, ‘I don’t know if the NHL is going to happen for us. It seems so far away,'” Skinner said. “Those are the moments you look back on and you feel a lot of gratitude. Because of that experience, it made me want to work that much harder.”
That failure spurred Skinner to become what he is now, a rookie goaltender who has a chance to play a significant role in helping his hometown Oilers win the Stanley Cup. To do that, Skinner and the Oilers will have to bounce back from a 4-3 overtime loss in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Kings, a game in which Edmonton let a 3-1 third-period lead slip away. (Game 2 is Wednesday night at 10 ET on ESPN.)
People around the Oilers will say Skinner’s rise was gradual, that while they knew they had a goalie who could play in the NHL, they weren’t sure how it would all work out. So the plan was to use a tandem approach, with Edmonton signing Jack Campbell to a five-year contract worth $5 million annually in the offseason.
At first, the plan came with questions. The Oilers were winning, but they were giving up quite a few goals in the process. In December everything changed. Skinner took over as the No. 1 goalie and has put together an All-Star season, with a 29-14-5 record, a 2.75 goals-against average and .914 save percentage, while creating buzz for the Calder Trophy, the award for the NHL’s best rookie.
Skinner says he’s still a work in progress, learning how to handle success, while those who have guided him have always believed he could be whatever he wanted to be.
“It is fun to see them grow and perform in the NHL as they are right now,” said Sylvain Rodrigue, goalie coach of the Bakersfield Condors, Edmonton’s AHL affiliate. “I told [Oilers coaches] Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson — and it was not only me — our staff said that Stu was a project, but oh my God, he’s big and he has the ability. He just has to put everything together.”
SPEND FIVE MINUTES with Skinner and you’ll find he values discussing his shortcomings and is just as passionate about constantly improving and learning about the different avenues to reach the next level.
This continual path of self-discovery started in 2018, when Skinner, playing in the Western Hockey League, was traded from the Lethbridge Hurricanes to the Swift Current Broncos. He had dominated in youth leagues and was in the WHL at age 16. He participated in national team camps for Hockey Canada, and in 2017, at 19, was a third-round draft pick of the Oilers.
At the time of the trade, he was viewed as the missing piece that could help Swift Current win the WHL championship and reach the Memorial Cup.
“I thought I was this good junior goalie. … I thought I was great,” Skinner said. “I thought I did not have to work hard in practice. I guess I was a selfish, immature kid. I did everything for me.”
Skinner met someone in Swift Current who he says became one of the most influential people in his life. He doesn’t want to share their name. But he does share the guidance this person provided.
Everything they talked about was rooted in honesty. Skinner had to reconcile with his belief that he worked hard when in reality, he didn’t. It forced him to appreciate the value of accountability and the need to get better on a daily basis.
That was just the start.
Skinner doesn’t just talk about the people in his life, he provides all the ways they have helped him. And he completely rejects any suggestion that he is a self-made player.
“I know it was not easy to get to where I am at,” Skinner said. “It’s why I don’t know if I even like the term ‘self-made’ because of how many people have helped me get to where I am at. I don’t know if anyone is truly self-made.”
Dylan Wells is one of those who helped Skinner. Aside from his wife, Wells is Skinner’s best friend. They met at those Hockey Canada camps as teenagers. They became closer when Wells, also a goalie, was drafted in 2016 by the Oilers, a year before Skinner was picked by the same team.
Being in the same organization meant they were ECHL teammates. Wells, who now plays for the Dallas Stars’ AHL affiliate, said they lived together in the team hotel and were always trying to find ways to pass the time. Wells is an avid reader whereas Skinner was not at the time.
Wells got Skinner into reading, particularly books by Ryan Holiday.
“I believe the first book he read … I want to say it was ‘Ego is the Enemy’ or ‘The Obstacle is the Way,'” Wells recalled. “He cruised through it right away and asked, ‘Do you have another book I can read?'”
Holiday’s works are centered around themes such as learning from failure and finding success in ways that draw from stoicism.
There is a line from “Ego is the Enemy” in which Holiday wrote, “People learn from their failures. Seldom do they learn anything from success.”
Those words could be the most apt way to describe Skinner.
For years, Skinner said, he thought way too much about how hockey was played rather than concentrating on how he should play hockey. That’s where Oilers goalie coach Dustin Schwartz and Rodrigue have come in.
Rodrigue said he always saw the big picture with Skinner, even when Skinner went through difficult periods. He explained to him the difference between junior players who make it and those who don’t is the time they are willing to invest in the craft. With Skinner, it was about not necessarily changing his work habits, but being more efficient with how he worked.
“There are expectations of where the game is at and not fully understanding the demands of playing professionally and that it is a job now,” Schwartz said. “It’s about understanding the growth that goes into a game. Whether that’s the mental side, the physical side, the technical side or the tactical side. That all requires growth.”
Growth. It’s the one word that keeps coming up with anyone who discusses how Skinner has arrived at his current destination. Talking about growth can be uplifting, but considering what forced someone to grow also can be a little nerve-wracking because it means reviewing one’s mistakes.
Skinner doesn’t see it that way. He embraces those mistakes. It gives him an opportunity to talk about those who helped him take his failure and turn it into success. Oilers strength and conditioning coach Chad Drummond, for example. The work Drummond did with Skinner allows him to go weeks at a time without rest, something Rodrigue raves about.
“It would be a lot of suffering, you could say, but it was in the best way,” Skinner said of those first workouts with Drummond. “He is the guy I trust with everything. … I was 192 pounds when I met him and now I am 220 pounds. I can do pushups, I can do stairs. I am fortunate to have the people who have helped me get here.”
HEAD COACHES, EXECUTIVES, goaltending coaches and goalies themselves throughout the NHL all know the following to be true. One of the strongest ways to ensure a team’s success is to have two goaltenders who respect each other.
Yes, there is only one net. But there are 82 regular-season games at a time in which everything from a flat salary cap to managing workload has led to an increase in the use of goalie tandems.
So how do the Oilers, a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, manage having one goalie they signed to a large contract in free agency and another homegrown talent who is trying to prove himself?
“I’ve been fortunate in my position and my role that we’ve had good goalies come through Edmonton who are good people,” Schwartz said. “At the beginning of the season, we’d have our meetings and we’d do them together. We’d go for supper together. You spend every single day at the rink with these guys. They put their egos in check and understand that we are supportive of each other.”
Get Skinner talking about Campbell and he won’t stop. He goes off about how “super excited” he was when the Oilers signed Campbell. He says it was a chance to learn from an All-Star who had a 30-win season before rattling off Campbell’s save percentages from his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Skinner uses the word “unbelievable” several times when talking about how gracious Campbell has been with him. They go out to dinner. They bounce ideas off each other. They are always talking, especially when Skinner comes to Campbell for advice on technique, recovery or anything else.
“Every time we go on the ice for practice, we’re competing against each other but we also compete for each other, so he can be at his best, so I can be at my best and vice versa,” Skinner said. “There is a love for each other to see each other succeed. If us winning the Cup has Jack in net or me in net, that is our main goal as a team. Whatever will help us do that, both Soup and I want that. Us having that relationship with each other makes it easy no matter who is playing.”
Skinner talks about Campbell the same way Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman talked about his relationship with Linus Ullmark. And while Swayman and Ullmark are known for their trademark postgame hugs, there have been moments this season when the fondness Campbell and Skinner have for one another also has been apparent.
Such as earlier this month when Campbell recorded his first shutout of the season. Campbell still had his mask on when he and Skinner flashed giant smiles at each other. Then Skinner put his arm around Campbell and yelled, “YEEEAAAAHHH!” while patting him on the back repeatedly.
Not every goaltending duo in the NHL will form a bromance, but that cohesion can’t help but have a positive impact. Skinner knows this firsthand having gone through it with Wells in the minors.
“I feel like every team I have played on, I have formed a good friendship with my goalie partner,” Wells said. “He’s the only person on the team who understands what you are going through with certain situations. It’s hard to understand what a goalie is going through. They are sounding boards for each other. When I was watching Stuart, you are happy for his success and you are there for him when things don’t go well. You hope for the same in return. I know when I was in net, I felt that love and he did too.”
Skinner and Wells are so close that when they both came to the United States and needed American cell phones, they got a family plan along with Skinner’s wife, a plan they still use. Wells joked that while they still talk often, one conversation they count on is the monthly discussion about paying their phone bill. Wells even lived with Skinner and his wife during the pandemic.
“From the first day I met Stu, I knew how special of a goalie he was,” Wells said. “I consider myself very lucky to be along the way and put the work in with him to grow both of our games. We saw each other’s struggles. … Deep down, I knew he was going to be a star NHL goalie and watching him now, it’s a testament to the work he has put in.”
So for someone who had to endure failure to reach this stage of his career, how is Skinner handling his success?
“I’ve been thinking about that lately, what success really is to me,” Skinner said. “There is a quote, and I forgot the book, but it really resonated with me. Somebody said, ‘A form of success is meaningful relationships and meaningful work. Trying to strive for that is what makes you successful.’
“Learning from how you deal with loss and failure really helps you for when the lights are on you, the cameras are on you and you are in the NHL. It’s important to know how to deal with that. The same goes for success.”
Skinner said he and Desharnais talk about that day in Wichita at least once a week. They think about those long days and nights on buses going to Kansas City, Indianapolis, Tulsa and Rapid City, South Dakota.
They are open about how those buses have been replaced by charter jets and how they’re now going to places like Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Skinner jokes about how they get “tons of food” before and after games, and says he “should be the most grateful person alive” because he is able to make a living this way.
Those close to Skinner say his ascension is rewarding for them too. Schwartz said he’s been watching Skinner since he was in juniors. Schwartz said they have “a unique relationship” because he’s had this front row seat watching Skinner become more than some scrawny kid who tapped into this potential.
Schwartz said what he loves most about Skinner is how he is with people. Schwartz has two children, who are 9 and 12. Every time they come to the rink, Skinner is the first person they want to see because he makes time for them. They even golf together.
So to see Skinner become a successful rookie goaltender in the NHL, not to mention a husband and new father, resonates in a way that goes beyond the typical player-coach relationship.
“His values and principles are in the right place,” Schwartz said. “He’s going to be a great dad with values and how he carries himself. He’s learned so many lessons along the way and he has grown into being an incredible dad, husband and like anyone, you see the value in treating others the right way.”
SEATTLE — Jorge Polanco hit a game-ending single in the 15th inning, and the Seattle Mariners advanced to the American League Championship Series by outlasting the Detroit Tigers for a 3-2 victory Friday night.
At 4 hours, 58 minutes, it was the longest winner-take-all postseason game in baseball history and featured 15 pitchers — eight for the Mariners and seven for the Tigers.
With one out and the bases loaded, Polanco drove in J.P. Crawford with a liner to right off Tommy Kahnle. Crawford hit a leadoff single, Randy Arozarena was hit by a pitch and Julio Rodriguez was intentionally walked before Polanco’s big swing on the 472nd pitch of an epic Game 5 in a tightly contested division series.
The Mariners left 12 runners on base and still advanced to the ALCS for the first time since 2001. Next up is a matchup with the AL East champion Blue Jays, beginning Sunday night in Toronto.
“We never give up,” Polanco said. “We just keep fighting. It doesn’t matter how many innings we play. We just stay ready and wait for the moment. It’s going to come. It was my time.”
Luis Castillo pitched 1⅓ innings for the win in his first major league relief appearance. Logan Gilbert, another member of Seattle’s rotation, worked two scoreless innings in his first relief outing since his college days at Stetson University in 2017.
“It was such a tough night,” Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh said. “Everyone put their other stuff aside and did everything for the team, including Logan and Luis.”
Detroit wasted a stellar performance by Tarik Skubal, who struck out 13 while pitching six innings of one-run ball. The Tigers went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left 10 on base.
“We had an incredible game today that — unfortunately, somebody had to lose, and that somebody was us, and it hurts,” manager A.J. Hinch said.
Kerry Carpenter put Detroit in front when he hit a two-run homer off Gabe Speier in the sixth inning. Carpenter had four hits and walked twice, becoming the first player to reach five times and hit a home run in a winner-take-all postseason game since Babe Ruth in 1926.
The Mariners tied it at 2 on Leo Rivas‘ pinch-hit single off Tyler Holton in the seventh. Rivas celebrated his 28th birthday with his first postseason hit.
“He was up to the task tonight,” Seattle manager Dan Wilson said. “It was a huge hit.”
Friday’s win was the Mariners’ first series-clinching victory in extra innings since Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS, a 6-5 victory in 11 innings over the Yankees.
The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.
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Bill Connelly
Are you a fan of the old reliable or new weirdness? Do you go for a good, old-fashioned corny dog at the State Fair of Texas or do you seek out the new oddity, like this year’s Ox’cellent Cornbread Sliders or Deep Fried Carbonara?
Regardless of your taste, Week 7 of the college football season has you covered. If you like a nice blue-blood helmet game, the Red River Rivalry pits the preseason No. 1 team (Texas) against the current No. 6 (Oklahoma). Michigan heads to USC for a Rose Bowl-adjacent battle. Georgia plays Auburn! Florida plays Texas A&M! Plenty of big-name games everywhere you look!
The biggest game of the week, however, is Indiana at Oregon. Weird! Alabama at Missouri might be No. 2, and it’s possible that no game has more direct College Football Playoff implications than USF’s Friday evening visit to North Texas. An ambitious college football geek should head up to Denton before Red River!
Week 7 gives us both what we think we need and what we really, really want instead. Something for everyone. Here’s everything you need to know about another loaded weekend.
All times are Eastern; games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Fun new dishes
Helmet games are great. It’s nice heading into a given season with certain landmarks like OU-Texas that you know will draw attention. But there’s a buzz that comes with games of surprising gravitas, and three conferences will give us one of those this week. With assistance from the new food items at this year’s State Fair of Texas, let’s lean into all three.
The Lobster Three Ways of the Week (surprisingly fancy!)
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon and Dan Lanning have grown accustomed to this “big game” thing. This will be the eighth time the fourth-year head coach has led the Ducks into a top-10 vs. top-10 battle. They’re 4-3 in such games so far, with all the losses to eventual CFP finalists. Indiana, meanwhile, has played four such games ever. Half of them happened last season, and the next one the Hoosiers win will be the first. In terms of known gravitas, we know who has the advantage.
Granted, Oregon’s win at Penn State two weeks ago looks a little different after the Nittany Lions’ loss at winless UCLA, but it seemed to give us a pretty accurate impression of the Ducks: They’re super efficient with quarterback and current No. 2 Heisman betting favorite Dante Moore leading the show on offense, but they’re not incredibly explosive. The defense combines three-and-outs — they’ve forced them on 50.9% of possessions, third in the FBS — with elite big-play prevention. I mean, of course this is an awesome team: It has won 19 of 20 games!
The spotlight, then, is on Indiana. Can the Hoosiers perform better than they did at Ohio State (38-15 loss) or Notre Dame (27-17) last year? They haven’t really given us any reason to doubt them in 2025: They’re third in SP+; they’re first in success rate* on offense and second on defense; and they beat a current top-20 team (otherwise-unbeaten No. 17 Illinois) by 53 points three weeks ago.
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs.)
The offense generates most of the headlines, with quarterback and No. 7 Heisman betting favorite Fernando Mendoza throwing to Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. and handing off to Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. The Hoosiers have a lot of ways to stay on schedule, and they’ve done it better than anyone else in the sport thus far.
Aside from the occasional big-gainer to Cooper, explosiveness isn’t necessarily a strength here, and the two teams that kept the big plays tamped down — Old Dominion and Iowa — held them to 23.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play.
The Hoosiers’ defense is the star of the show, though. Illinois scored 10 points at 3.6 yards per play against Indiana but has averaged 42.4 points and 7.0 yards per play against everyone else. Everywhere you look, Indiana has multiple stars, with ends Kellan Wyatt, Mikail Kamara and Stephen Daley; linebackers Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy; and safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell. Plus star corner D’Angelo Ponds is expected to play after missing time with injury.
The Big Stage Game is the only test Indiana didn’t pass last year, but the Hoosiers get another chance to show out Saturday. We know Oregon will.
Current line: Ducks -7.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.2 | FPI projection: Ducks by 5.2
The Meat Lovers Crunch Wrap Calzone of the Week (might be new and different, might taste like a typical calzone)
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri (noon, ABC)
On the first Monday night of the 1975 season, Missouri went down to Birmingham and pummeled No. 2 Alabama, 20-7. Bama had won 22 straight regular-season games, but led by tailback Tony Galbreath, the Tigers rushed for 206 yards to Bama’s 31 and made a 20-0 halftime lead hold up with surprising ease. “They ran up and down the field as though they were playing a barber’s college,” Alabama coach Bear Bryant said. “They ate us on the line of scrimmage.”
The win assured Mizzou of something rare: a series lead on the Tide. The Tigers were 2-1 all time against Bama when they joined the SEC in 2012. They’re now 2-6. In five meetings as SEC mates, Bama has swept by an average score of 39-10. But Saturday will be the Tigers’ best shot at a win in 50 years.
Alabama has rebounded from a dismal Week 1 loss to Florida State, winning four straight and beating ranked opponents in the last two weeks. Quarterback Ty Simpson leads my Heisman horse race, and an inefficient run game has improved since Jam Miller‘s return from injury. But running isn’t how you beat the Mizzou defense. In two games against power-conference opponents (Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers have allowed opposing running backs to average just 1.3 yards per carry, but they also gave up 10 completions of at least 20 yards. The Tigers have the best pass rush the Tide have faced, but if they can’t pressure Simpson, the dynamite receiver trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton (combined: 192.8 yards per game, 15.1 per catch) will do damage.
A Missouri win Saturday might end up looking a lot like the 1975 game, with the Tigers controlling the ground game (and the YAC battle) on offense and defense. So far, tackling Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy has been just about the hardest task in college football. Hardy leads the nation with 730 rushing yards, and 460 of those have come after contact.
Hardy has had more carries of more than 25 yards (five) than carries with lost yardage (four), and 212-pound backup Jamal Roberts averages even more yards per carry (7.3) than Hardy (7.1).
Mizzou boasts plenty of physicality, but aside from occasional deep shots to receiver Marquis Johnson, this offense is based far more around efficiency than explosiveness. In the last couple of Bama games, however, it’s been chunk plays or nothing against the efficient Tide. Bama records almost no tackles for loss or sacks, but sacks are the primary way of stopping Missouri: The Tigers rank 95th in sack rate allowed. When upright, Beau Pribula completes 76% of his passes, keeps the chains moving and forces teams to endure further doses of Hardy and Roberts.
Current line: Bama -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 1.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 3.4
The Pop Rocks Margarita of the Week (let’s get silly and loud)
No. 24 USF at North Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
The odds are in the American Conference’s favor at the moment. The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives six teams from the Group of 5 a 7% or greater chance of reaching the CFP, and four of those teams — Memphis (39.5%), North Texas (14.5%), USF (10.4%) and Tulane (7.7%) — are from the American. Spectacularly explosive Old Dominion (20.1%) and unbeaten UNLV (8.6%) could still take the mantle, but for now it’s the American’s show. And its No. 2 and No. 3 contenders face off Friday night before the first sellout crowd ever at DATCU Stadium.
USF has the résumé mid-majors dream of. After walloping last year’s G5 representative, Boise State, in Week 1, the Bulls took down Florida the next week. They couldn’t offer much resistance against Miami, but they’ve beaten two overwhelmed opponents by a combined 117-40 since. And their big-play capabilities are ridiculous, especially those of receivers Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton (combined: 661 yards at 20.0 per catch). There’s a major all-or-nothing component to this offense — it’s 95th in success rate but fifth in yards per successful play — but the “all”s are spectacular. Defensively, it’s turnovers or bust: The Bulls have forced 11 of them. They can create some negative run plays, too, but their statistical profile is otherwise pretty underwhelming.
North Texas has its best defense in quite a while — potentially faint praise considering the Mean Green haven’t ranked higher than 105th in defensive SP+ since 2018 — but the offense is the show. It ranks ninth in points per drive with heavy efficiency, almost no turnovers (three in five games) and excellent red zone execution (10th in red zone TD rate). Backs Makenzie McGill II and Caleb Hawkins average 6.0 yards per carry over 21 carries per game, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker is completing 68% of his passes with no picks and almost no sacks. Even when they’re behind schedule, they’re not really behind schedule because Mestemaker catches them up. North Texas has scored at least 33 points in every game and has allowed more than 30 just once. That’s a pretty good combination, though USF is comfortably the best team the Mean Green have played to date.
Current line: UNT -1.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 6.6 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.8
Reliable old standbys
The biggest games of the week might be a little strange and experimental, but there are plenty of comforting matchups to assure that you keep your bearings. I mean, does college football get any more reliable than OU vs. Texas, Georgia vs. Auburn or Ohio State vs. a solid-but-probably-not-good-enough Big Ten foe?
The Corny Dog of the Week (safe, reliable state fair fare)
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Red River is both one of the most even and one of the most momentum-based rivalries you’ll see. For Texas to win for the third time in four years, the Longhorns will have to endure a strange matchup of excellent defenses and incomplete offenses.
Points per drive
Texas: 63rd on offense, fifth on defense
Oklahoma: 48th on offense, second on defense
OU quarterback John Mateer is racing to return from recent hand surgery; he was listed as probable on this week’s initial injury report, which caused the betting line to move swiftly toward the Sooners. Backup Michael Hawkins Jr. was fine against an admittedly almost Division II-worthy Kent State defense last week, but even with Mateer healthy, OU has gone unbeaten because of its defense.
Texas’ Arch Manning has yet to play well against an SP+ top-100 defense, which is pretty scary considering OU’s currently ranks second. Manning has flashed moments of excellence with his legs, but he took six sacks against Florida last week, and his numbers when pressured are pretty dismal.
Florida’s pass rush ranks 75th in sack rate; Oklahoma’s ranks first. We can talk about the Sooners’ disappointing run game and whether either Mateer or Hawkins can find enough success against a strong Texas defense. But until Texas proves it can actually keep pressure off Manning — or Manning proves he can perform well under duress — I’m not sure anything else matters.
Current line: OU -1.5 (flipped from Texas -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 7.6 | FPI projection: Texas by 2.8
The Fried Mac ‘n’ Cheese Bites of the Week (intriguing at first, predictable in the end)
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois (noon, Fox)
Ohio State’s mission is to win, not to entertain. The Buckeyes have won their last three games by an average of 34-6, and their defense, first in SP+ last season, has grown even more suffocating. They rank first in points allowed per drive, and the next red zone touchdown they allow will be the first all year.
Illinois’ offense is hot, at least. Since their humiliation against Indiana, the Illini have responded with near perfection: Luke Altmyer has completed 81% of his passes for 718 yards in two games, with wideouts Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon doing loads of damage. Granted, Washington ranked first nationally in points per drive before playing Ohio State and managed just six points. But if Illinois can do just enough damage that OSU quarterback Julian Sayin has to force the issue a bit, we could learn something useful about the Buckeyes.
Ohio State’s run game isn’t nearly as dangerous as usual, but Sayin is completing 80% of his passes and never has to take any risks. Knowing the other team will never score, the Buckeyes can just wait opponents out, and eventually receivers Jeremiah Smith and/or Carnell Tate will break through and ice the game.
Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 10.7
The Flamin’ Hot Cheetos Nachos of the Week (relatively predictable but could upset your stomach)
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC)
It’s danger time on the Plains. Auburn has lost 13 of 15 to Georgia and heads into this one having lost two in a row overall. The Tigers were competitive at both Oklahoma and Texas A&M because of strong defense but failed to even slightly protect Jackson Arnold (or persuade him to get the damn ball out of his hands faster). He was sacked 14 times in the two games, and Auburn scored a total of 27 points. Strangely, Georgia might offer a reprieve: The Dawgs rank just 115th in sack rate and 89th in yards allowed per dropback. They dominate against the run, but this might be Kirby Smart’s worst pass defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator.
Georgia’s offense moves efficiently but doesn’t make loads of big plays. The run game has been decent, but the Dawgs could be without both starting tackles — Monroe Freeling (ankle) and Micah Morris (back) are listed as questionable. Arnold might simply be broken, but it wouldn’t take too many decent pass plays to make this one uncomfortable for a Georgia team that really doesn’t want to suffer Loss No. 2 this early.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.6 | FPI projection: UGA by 3.5
The Chopped Brisket Sandwich of the Week (beefy but lacking pizzazz)
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN)
Two weeks ago, the defensive coach in Mike Elko emerged. Fresh from a 41-40 track-meet win at Notre Dame, his Aggies established a far more conservative streak.
First three A&M games: 71.0 total points per game, 7.0 yards per play, 5.2 yards allowed per play
Last two games: 33.0 total points per game, 6.1 yards per play, 3.7 yards allowed per play
In their first three games, A&M ran the ball just 39% of the time. In wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, that surged to 63%. The Aggies took more time between plays too. On both offense and defense, they sacrificed aggression for control. Granted, this nearly backfired when they dominated Auburn but couldn’t pull away. But last week’s 31-9 pummeling of Mississippi State was their best overall performance of the season.
Now comes a Florida team that also played its best game a week ago. The Gators’ defense pummeled Arch Manning early and often, and quarterback DJ Lagway played by far his most relaxed and effective game of 2025. The Gators still didn’t run the ball that well, and that’s been the easier way to move against A&M, but if this is the new Florida, Texas might not be the only team it upsets.
Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 10.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 6.7
The Red Velvet Cheesecake on a Stick of the Week (comforting and familiar, albeit in a confusing vessel)
No. 15 Michigan at USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Michigan and USC have played 11 times, and nine were in the greater Los Angeles area. Of course, eight of those were at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena; for just the second time, they’ll meet in USC’s L.A. Coliseum home.
After a bye week following the loss at Illinois, USC will define its season one way or the other playing Michigan and Notre Dame back-to-back. The Trojans’ offense still ranks first nationally in points per drive and yards per play, but the defense has slipped to 89th in rushing success rate allowed. You know what Michigan will do constantly if you can’t stop it? Run the ball. Justice Haynes has five 100-yard games in five tries.
Current line: USC -2.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 3.0 | FPI projection: USC by 4.8
This week in the Big 12
Texas Tech’s recent levels of dominance could be taking some of the mystery out of the Big 12 title race — per SP+, the Red Raiders currently have a 38% title shot, and no one else is above 13%. But it’s still early. Four Big 12 teams are 2-0 in conference play, with another seven at 2-1 or 1-1. From those 11 teams, we get three head-to-head matchups Saturday evening.
Kansas at No. 9 Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., Fox)
Have we finally found a Texas Tech weakness? It took a few games. Red zone offense was a major issue against Houston last week — the Red Raiders scored TDs on just two of eight red zone trips, and they’re now 103rd in red zone touchdown rate for the season. That can cost you a game somewhere at some point, at least if you’re making fewer than eight trips.
Tech otherwise remains a juggernaut — top 10 in offensive and defensive success rate and top 15 on third downs on both sides of the ball with bigger big plays than its opponents. That doesn’t leave teams with many avenues for an upset. But KU’s defense is solid in the red zone, and quarterback Jalon Daniels escapes pressure beautifully. If he can make plays while Tech is kicking field goals, we could have a game.
Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0
No. 18 BYU at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Arizona’s offense has been pretty mediocre this season, but the Wildcats are 4-1 because they’ve resurrected the Desert Swarm defense. They rank fourth in yards allowed per play, combining loads of negative run plays with loads of incompletions and interceptions. BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed every test thus far, but if he’s ever going to look like a freshman, it will come against a defense like this.
Of course, BYU’s defense is equally good at forcing mistakes — the Cougars are 15th in stuff rate and third in interception rate — and while BYU has given up an increasing number of points in each game, Arizona has played only one top-50 defense, per SP+, and scored only 14 points against Iowa State.
Current line: BYU -1.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 5.1
No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Arizona State hasn’t lost to a Big 12 team in nearly a full calendar year, but the Sun Devils are almost an afterthought in the title race, because of both Texas Tech’s hot start and their own cold start. They’ve rebounded since a loss to Mississippi State, but with Utah and Tech in the next two weeks, they need to be close to a finished product.
ASU’s defense has evolved into a sharp, bend-don’t-break unit, pouncing on mistakes and preventing big plays, but Utah almost has a bend-don’t-break offense with heavy efficiency and almost no big plays. How does that play out? And with quarterback Sam Leavitt listed as doubtful to play, can ASU establish enough of a rhythm in the run game, where Utah has suffered some glitches this year?
Current line: Utah -5.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 10.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 5.3
Week 7 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number.
I feel as if we should claim an honorary victory for last week — we aimed to take down a Big Ten favorite and got one with the UCLA-Penn State game that I wasn’t nearly brave enough to add — but technically we failed and fell to 3-for-6 for the season. But the two-week losing streak ends here. SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that No. 9 Texas Tech (83% win probability against Kansas), No. 11 LSU (78% against South Carolina), No. 12 Tennessee (80% against Arkansas) and No. 16 Notre Dame (89% against NC State) all win. Someone important is going down.
Week 7 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Rutgers at Washington (9 p.m., FS1). We’re putting this ridiculous long-distance matchup on a Friday night for the second straight year, but last year’s game was pretty awesome, and this year’s could be a track meet. Rutgers ranks 17th in points per drive but 99th in points allowed per drive; Washington ranks fourth and 81st, respectively. We love points on a Friday night.
Current line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 12.0 | FPI projection: UW by 7.5
Early Saturday
Pitt at No. 25 Florida State (noon, ESPN). FSU set the bar a little too high with the early win over Bama, but the Noles still have a 1-in-3 chance of finishing 9-3 or better, per SP+, so there’s still plenty to shoot for. Pitt, meanwhile, looked spectacular last week after handing the reins to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. A win in Tallahassee would make the Panthers sleeper ACC contenders.
Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.1
UCF at Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Cincinnati has won four in a row since its season-opening loss to Nebraska, and the Bearcats are projected favorites in their next three. UCF produces some of the biggest big plays in the country, however, which makes it a serious candidate to pull a random upset at some point.
Current line: Cincy -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 9.2 | FPI projection: Cincy by 5.3
Louisiana at James Madison (noon, ESPN2). We’re gearing up for eight words I never thought I’d have a reason to type: an Old Dominion-James Madison game with playoff implications. That’s a week away, but first JMU’s dynamite defense has to deal with backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry and an excellent Louisiana run game.
Current line: JMU -17.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 17.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.0
Washington State at No. 4 Ole Miss (12:45 p.m., SECN). OK, this probably isn’t one you’ll need to focus on for very long. But any excuse to watch Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss in action is a good one. Wazzu defensive end Isaac Terrell is worth the price of admission too.
Current line: Rebels -31.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 34.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 34.7
Saturday afternoon
Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). The (interim) Bobby Petrino era begins again at Arkansas, and the Hogs will take their ultra-explosive offense to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that has overachieved against offensive projections but underachieved against defensive projections in every game. I’ll be disappointed if this game produces under 65 points.
Current line: Vols -11.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 13.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 10.7
TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox). It’s danger time for Kansas State. The Wildcats have lost four games by a combined 13 points; they’re clearly competitive and solid, but they’re projected underdogs in their next three games. Without an immediate rebound, a frustrating season could become something far worse. TCU, meanwhile, remains in the Big 12 hunt but can’t afford a slipup after the Week 5 loss at Arizona State.
Current line: TCU -1.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 8.2 | FPI projection: TCU by 1.8
No. 22 Iowa State at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This is a spectacularly backhanded compliment, but Colorado is a strong 2-4. The Buffaloes have been competitive in three of four losses and make more big plays than their opponents. Iowa State wins with efficiency but got gouged by Cincinnati’s big-play offense last week. This is probably a get-right game for the Cyclones, but there’s reason for paranoia.
Current line: ISU -2.5 (down from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ISU by 5.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.3
NC State at No. 16 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Notre Dame has shifted into gear, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game during a three-game winning streak. The Irish can’t let up, but NC State can shift into Bully Mode and make life really physical and frustrating thanks to RB Hollywood Smothers and an aggressive run defense.
Current line: Irish -23.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.5
Nebraska at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). Two 4-1 teams with very different vibes: Maryland was up 20-0 on Washington last week but collapsed and watched its unbeaten record disappear, while Nebraska handled its business against Michigan State and ranks in the top 25 in points scored and points allowed per drive. Can the Terps pull off an immediate rebound, or will NU’s push for a first 10-win season in 13 years continue?
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 3.0 | FPI projection: NU by 4.1
Air Force at UNLV (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Playing at Wyoming on a bed of hailstones sounds absolutely miserable, but UNLV survived the experience with relative ease, winning by 14. Now comes a visit from Air Force and new star quarterback Liam Szarka. The Falcons’ awful defense will probably prevent this from going down to the wire, but these two offenses are ridiculously fun to watch.
Current line: UNLV -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.7 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.6
Navy at Temple (4 p.m., ESPN2). Temple hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2019, but veteran head coach KC Keeler has the Owls at 3-2 and dreaming of a return to the postseason. Backs Jay Ducker and Hunter Smith could give unbeaten Navy fits, though it’s fair to assume Navy quarterback Blake Horvath and dual-threat WR Eli Heidenreich (413 receiving yards, 232 rushing yards) will give the Owls’ defense even more problems.
Current line: Navy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 13.2 | FPI projection: Navy by 2.5
Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Following the Week 3 upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech underachieved against SP+ projections twice in a row. After a bye-week refresh, it hosts an interim-coached Virginia Tech team that has started to run the ball and rush the passer well but will probably suffer too many glitches for an upset bid.
Current line: GT -14.5 | SP+ projection: GT by 16.8 | FPI projection: GT by 9.4
Northwestern at Penn State (3:30 p.m., FS1). After the worst and most unexpected loss of the James Franklin era, Penn State tries to get right against Northwestern before a rugged three-game stretch — at Iowa, at Ohio State, Indiana at home — either salvages or further wrecks the season.
Current line: PSU -21.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 21.2 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.9
Saturday evening
South Carolina at No. 11 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). Maybe the biggest now-or-never game of a week full of them. South Carolina fell off course with losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri and is a projected underdog in the next five games; the Gamecocks still have LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, though, and they will remain major upset threats. LSU, meanwhile, got a bye week after losing to Ole Miss to fix whatever’s wrong with the offense; with trips to Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma remaining, the Tigers can’t afford a home upset.
Current line: LSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 12.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 6.3
Iowa at Wisconsin (7 p.m., FS1). Iowa is eight points from an unbeaten record but is 3-2 instead. That’s more than Wisconsin can say, though. The Badgers showed some brief life after handing the QB reins to Southern Illinois transfer Hunter Simmons last week, but they still lost to Michigan by two touchdowns and have been outscored by 55 points against three power-conference opponents.
Current line: Iowa -3.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.0 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.1
Late Saturday
New Mexico at Boise State (9:45 p.m., FS1). Jason Eck and his super-underdog Lobos couldn’t get the job done at San José State last week, and their run defense is shaky enough that Boise State should be able to feast on the ground. UNM is crafty, however, avoiding negative plays and going for it constantly on fourth downs. If BSU is looking ahead to next week’s UNLV game, the Lobos could strike.
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 13.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 9.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 7 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 17 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). Another trip to the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference? You’re damn right! Conference play began last week with two awesome ranked-versus-ranked battles, and we get another one with quarterback Nathan Uselding and Platteville heading to River Falls. The host Falcons dropped a heartbreaker in Oshkosh last week, and it’s hard to come back from starting 0-2 when you have a seven-game conference schedule.
SP+ projection: UWP by 6.4.
FCS: Alabama State at No. 14 Jackson State (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). We could have a pretty dynamite Celebration Bowl this year, with the MEAC’s NC Central and the SWAC’s Jackson State and Alabama State all 31st or better in FCS SP+. JSU and ASU meet in Jackson on Saturday. A dynamite run game led by Ahmad Miller and Travis Terrell Jr. (combined: 150 rushing yards per game, 8.1 per carry) could give JSU a slight edge, but ASU QB Andrew Body is an impressive dual threat.
SP+ projection: JSU by 7.6.
FCS: No. 9 Southern Illinois at No. 1 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). On one hand, this is a top-10 matchup, and those are always worth tracking. On the other hand, NDSU has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the FCS this season — shocking, right? — and I’m not sure even a top-10 team can keep up in Fargo. SIU quarterback DJ Williams is another super-fun dual threat, though.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 20.3.
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