How Game 5 of Leafs-Lightning will be won: Pathways to victory for each team
It started as a series of blowouts. It became a matchup defined by comebacks.
What’s remained the same throughout is that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t lacked for drama in their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series.
And the Leafs have got their foes on the ropes.
Let’s recap: The Atlantic Division rivals traded multigoal victories in Toronto to tie the series at 1-1 before it shifted down to Tampa. There, the Lightning blew late leads in regulation of Games 3 and 4, lost both tilts in overtime and are on the brink of elimination in a 3-1 series hole.
Tampa Bay heads back to Toronto for Game 5 on Thursday night, with nothing left to do but win its next three hockey games. Meanwhile, the Leafs have three cracks at closing out the recent back-to-back Stanley Cup champions and finally, for the first time in nearly 20 years, advance past the opening round of a playoff series.
Can the Lightning rally — and rattle — Toronto enough to still come out on top? Or will the Leafs quiet their critics — and quit being a punchline — by actually finishing off an opponent?
“It feels different,” Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe said of his team after Game 4. “But we’ve got a tough task ahead.”
Here are five keys to victory for the Leafs and Lightning before Thursday’s battle of the blue-and-whites in Game 5:
Engage with urgency from the opening draw
Toronto overcame a one-goal deficit in Game 3 to win 4-3. It roared back from a three-goal disadvantage to take Game 4. That’s all well and good. But waiting until the last minute to come alive is unsustainable for the Leafs, especially with the Lightning playing with more desperation.
Urgency — or a lack thereof — has been Toronto’s downfall before. And the Leafs know full well Tampa Bay is capable of clawing back into a series. In last season’s first-round meeting, the Lightning were down 2-1 and 3-2 before closing the Leafs out in Game 7.
It’s no wonder Auston Matthews noted after the Leafs’ Game 4 victory: “The fourth [win] is the hardest to get.”
That has long held true for Toronto, and not just against Tampa Bay. There’s a reason the Leafs haven’t won a postseason series since 2004 and have been tossed from the opening round of their past six playoff (or play-in) opportunities. The Leafs don’t have to look far back to the last time they blew a 3-1 series lead; it was just two seasons ago against the Montreal Canadiens.
It’s time to finish this off.
Instead of letting Tampa Bay dictate the tone — as Toronto did for too much of Games 3 and 4 — it should be the Leafs taking it to the Lightning in Game 5. It should be Toronto playing like its season is on the line. Momentum is a powerful thing. The Leafs have it, and for once they can wield it properly — toward earning a series-deciding win — instead of handing the power back to the opposition.
Beware of vintage, Vezina-worthy Vasilevskiy
It’s been a particularly difficult playoff series for Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. He might also be the most well-suited goaltender in the league to produce a Herculean response.
So far, Vasilevskiy is 1-3-0 with a 4.33 goals-against average and .856 save percentage. He’s allowed more goals in this four-game span (19) than any other such stretch in his playoff career. That total is also tied for the second-most goals given up by a netminder through the first four games of a playoff series since 1984.
Bottom line? Like much of Tampa Bay’s lineup, its goaltender hasn’t been good enough. There’s no victory in sight for the Lightning if that doesn’t change.
“We scored enough goals to win,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said following Tampa’s 5-4 loss in Game 4. “You’ve got to keep them out of your net.”
Fortunately for the Lightning, there’s a long history of Vasilevskiy doing just that. He entered this postseason with enviable stats, a 63-38-0 playoff record, including seven shutouts — six of which have come in elimination games.
Basically, Vasilevskiy has been the Lightning’s backbone with their season(s) on the line. Cooper pointed out that several of the goals Vasilevskiy allowed late in Game 4 were tips and deflections, strikes that any goaltender — even ones who have won the Vezina Trophy, Conn Smythe Trophy and Stanley Cup — would struggle to stop.
Vasilevskiy can’t undo what’s happened. But he can still be that clutch performer Tampa Bay has relied on for the past decade. And few things would get into Toronto’s heads quite like seeing Vasilevskiy go full-on shutdown mode with so much at stake.
Don’t deviate; elevate
The Leafs’ supposedly improved depth was a constant talking point heading into this series.
Lo and behold, the rumors were true. Toronto has graduated beyond just relying on its core of star players — namely Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander — and has attacked the Lightning from all angles (and every line) throughout the past four games.
To date, the Leafs have had 10 different goal scorers, seen six players pass the six-point mark, and gotten key contributions from one rookie (Matthew Knies) and two trade-deadline acquisitions: Ryan O’Reilly, with seven points, and Noel Acciari with two goals.
The Leafs’ chemistry is palpable. The trick is not to overthink it.
Toronto already made one key decision in deciding not to insert Michael Bunting back into the lineup for Game 5. The feisty top-line forward was suspended three games for elbowing and interference against Tampa defenseman Erik Cernak in Game 1. He was eligible to return for Game 5, but Keefe said Wednesday that Bunting will remain on the bench.
Ultimately Keefe decided that, despite what Bunting brought to the team with a 49-point regular season effort, it wasn’t worth disrupting the group that has won three straight playoff games. Not that he’s afraid to move players around — at Wednesday’s practice, Knies had been elevated to the Leafs’ second line with Tavares and Marner.
That’s just a further example of how the Leafs can continue using all the players they have to keep Tampa Bay on its toes — and avoid their previous fate as a one-dimensional foe.
“[I like] the top-to-bottom six and that’s part of the decision to not insert Bunting in, [so we’re] maintaining that,” Keefe said. “We’re trying to establish something where we are comfortable playing all four lines. That was our intention going into the series. We thought we were in a good spot that way and had to adjust along the way, which is what we had to do the other night [in Game 4]. The players responded well, we can always make other adjustments if needed, but we like to group [this] way.”
Lightning need full team effort on defense
“In the end, you’ve got to defend,” Cooper noted after Game 4. “And you’ve got to keep the puck out of your net.”
That’s been easier said than done for Tampa Bay lately, but it has established the right blueprint of what not to do.
The primary problem is that Tampa Bay’s blueline isn’t the same without Cernak. He’s been absent since the Game 1 hit by Bunting, and he won’t be dressing for Game 5, either.
Victor Hedman missed time early in the series because of an injury and is likely not at 100%. Mikhail Sergachev has been banged up and briefly left Game 4 after blocking a shot from O’Reilly. The Lightning are leaning on rookies Darren Raddysh and Nick Perbix to play critical minutes, and they’ve delivered admirably. What Tampa Bay truly requires, though, is more defensive buy-in across the board.
“In the totality of things, would we like to have Cernak in our lineup, a top-four defenseman for us? Yes,” Cooper said. “[But] we’ve gotten in our own way, obviously, at some of these points.”
Toronto learned the hard way in Game 1’s disastrous 7-3 loss that if it didn’t start wrapping up the Lightning’s top-flight forwards in front of the net and stopping them from setting up a strong cycle, it was about to be a short series. Tampa Bay must make the same investment in its end.
Instead of leaving Vasilevskiy out to dry, it’s on Tampa Bay’s entire five-man units to be pressuring Leafs’ skaters to the outside and not allowing them to set up in front. Pushing shots through traffic is how Toronto worked its way back in Game 4, and a tighter effort from the Lightning — particularly through the neutral zone — won’t allow the Leafs those opportunities to get in Vasilevskiy’s line of vision.
Cooper admitted his team might have sat back in the third period of that Game 4 loss. There’s nothing like the threat of impending elimination to light a fire under any player — regardless of superstar status — to do the dirty work necessary that keeps a team’s hopes alive for a Game 6.
Wanted: Perked-up PKs
Special teams play an important role in every postseason series.
The charitable thing to say is that Tampa Bay and Toronto have been equally good in this one on the power play. Another reality is that, at times, both teams’ penalty kills have been something of an eyesore.
Going into Game 5, Toronto is at 70.6% on the PK (and 6-for-17 on the power play).
Tampa Bay is even worse at 64.7% on the PK (and 5-for-17 on the power play).
Will this all-important, potentially series-deciding Game 5 be determined by whose penalty kill is less awful?
The Lightning penalty kill gave up a game-winning power-play goal to Alexander Kerfoot in Game 4. Toronto’s kill has been discombobulated at times by Tampa Bay’s four-forward look on the man advantage (see: allowing four power-play markers in Game 1).
Staying out of the box would help, obviously. Tampa Bay has taken more penalties (27) than any team in the postseason. The Leafs aren’t far behind with 23 infractions.
There have been heroic short-handed moments from both sides, too. Key shot blocks. Dives into shooting lanes. Aggressive pressure and positive results.
It’s just takes one bad decision, though. One careless clear or sloppy turnover when you’re down a man and it won’t be even-strength play that rules the day. That can be a tough pill to swallow with results on the line.
Sports
Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Senators on the brink, while Avs, Knights, Bolts try to punch back
All but one NHL team will end the season on a bitter note, as there can be only one Stanley Cup champion. But on Saturday, we could have our very first playoff elimination of the 2025 playoffs.
The Ottawa Senators are on the brink heading into Saturday’s game. Despite taking the heavily favored Toronto Maple Leafs to overtime twice in a row, the Atlantic Division champs have scored the game winner each time in the extra session. Can the Senators win one in front of the home crowd to extend the series to five games?
Elsewhere in the Atlantic bracket, the Florida Panthers won both of the first two games in the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s building. Will this be a shorter series than many expected? And out West, the Minnesota Wild will look to extend their shocking series lead over the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Clash of the Western Titans continues in the Centennial State, as the Colorado Avalanche look to even things up with the Dallas Stars.
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Friday’s games, and the Three Stars of Friday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Game 3 (FLA leads 2-0) | 1 p.m. ET | TBS
Having served his suspension for performance-enhancing substances, Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad is eligible to return for this game. The well-rounded blueliner skated 23:30 per game during the regular season, scoring three goals and 30 assists in 56 games.
The Panthers have another defenseman who has been delivering this postseason; Nate Schmidt scored a goal in Games 1 and 2, becoming the first defenseman in franchise history with two game-winning goals in a single postseason — and they’re only two games in!
All eyes will be on the status of Aleksander Barkov, who was knocked out of Game 2 via a hit from Brandon Hagel; Hagel was assessed a five-minute major penalty for the play and suspended for Game 3.
Tampa Bay needs its stars and its scoring depth to get rolling to charge back into this series, with just two goals total in two games. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been up to his typical, superhuman standards thus far, allowing seven goals on 39 shots (.821 save percentage).
In Stanley Cup playoff history, teams that start 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time; that number rises to 98% if a team starts 3-0.
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild
Game 4 (MIN leads 2-1) | 4 p.m. ET | TBS
If nothing else, this series has been a unique one from a starting-time perspective; each of the first four games will have had a different scheduled start time once the puck is dropped Saturday — 10 p.m. ET for Game 1, 11 p.m. ET for Game 2, 9 p.m. ET for Game 3 and 4 p.m. ET for this one.
Most observers didn’t believe the Wild were going to win this series. Nor did many predict that Minnesota players would be all over the scoring leaderboard midway through Round 1. Kirill Kaprizov is tied for the playoff scoring lead with Adrian Kempe and Cam Fowler (seven points), and is tied with teammate Matt Boldy for the goal-scoring lead, with four. The current playoff assists leader? Wild blueliner Jared Spurgeon.
This has been an uncharacteristically rough opening round for Adin Hill. He’s allowed 10 goals on 57 shots, generating a .825 save percentage and 3.78 goals-against average. Those rates were .932 and 2.17, respectively, in Hill’s 16 games played during the Knights’ 2023 Stanley Cup run.
While “Playoff” Tomas Hertl has shown up this series — to the tune of two goals and an assist — some of the Knights’ other offensive standbys have been quiet. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev — who combined for 212 points in the regular season — all have a goose egg thus far.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Game 4 (TOR leads 3-0) | 7 p.m. ET | TBS
The Maple Leafs have been led by a consistently strong performance of their Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares; the quartet leads Toronto in scoring through three games. Perhaps a narrative is being rewritten before our eyes, after years of playoff disappointment for that group?
One specific area where Toronto has been dominant is the power play; their 55.6% conversion rate is tops in the league this postseason (and makes up, somewhat, for a penalty kill that is just 77.8% effective).
The Senators have had five different goal scorers this series, including Brady Tkachuk, who has been giving his all in his first playoff experience. Ottawa’s captain has two goals — and four penalty minutes, as he has kept himself in the mix whenever the action has gotten rowdier.
Will Ottawa stick with Linus Ullmark in goal for Game 4? The veteran has an .815 save percentage through the first three games — and an .874 mark in his postseason career.
Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche
Game 4 (DAL leads 2-1) | 9:30 p.m. ET | TBS
Game 3 was all about the return of Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog after an absence of 1,032 days. Landeskog skated 13:16 in the game, but did not record a point or a shot on goal.
While other teams are generating historic numbers on the power play this postseason, the Avs have struggled to a 15.4% conversion rate (fourth worst). This is in stark contrast to the regular season, when the Avs’ 24.8% rate was eighth in the league.
Tyler Seguin‘s overtime goal sealed the deal for Dallas in Game 3. it was just the second OT game winner in his career, after a span of 13 years (April 22, 2012).
The other good news on the Dallas front is that Mikko Rantanen — former Av, who was acquired on March 7 — finally picked up his first point of the series, an assist on the OT game winner. Have the floodgates opened?
Arda’s three stars from Friday night
1. The Oilers-Kings series
LA up 2-1 | 30 goals in three games
The first three games have been bonkers. Game 1 almost had an all-timer comeback, then the Kings rocked Edmonton in Game 2, while Game 3 saw multiple lead changes, quick back-to-back goals, a failed coaches challenge by L.A. on an Edmonton goal — which led to an Oilers’ power-play goal to take the lead. Just incredible.
Nemec scored the overtime winner in Newark to win the game for the Devils over the Canes — and avoid going down 0-3 in the series. This came after stints in the AHL this season, and being a healthy scratch earlier in the series.
“Goal” Caufield had a goal and an assist in Montreal’s emphatic 6-3 win over Washington in Game 3.
0:46
Cole Caufield scores with a one-timer for Montreal
Cole Caufield scores on a one-timer to give the Canadiens the lead late in the second period.
Friday’s scores
Montreal Canadiens 6, Washington Capitals 3
WSH leads 2-1
The Bell Centre was electric for the Canadiens’ first home game in quite some time — and the fans were sent home quite happy on Friday night after a wild game. The two teams traded goals through most of the first two periods before Cole Caufield put Montreal up one at the end of the second — and a brawl ensued that spilled into the Washington bench. Although Alex Ovechkin scored 2:39 into the third to tie the game 3-3, the Habs poured it on thereafter with three straight goals, sending the “Olé!” chants to unforeseen decibel levels. Recap.
0:45
Christian Dvorak helps Canadiens regain the lead
Christian Dvorak finds the net in the third period to help the Canadiens to retake the lead vs. the Capitals.
New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (2OT)
CAR leads 2-1
Down 0-2 in the series, the Devils went up 2-0 in their first game back home, on goals from Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer. But a pair of third-period, power-play goals — from Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho — knotted things up, and the game went to overtime. Scoreless after one extra period, the game was ended by Simon Nemec, the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, who had been a healthy scratch previously in the series. Recap.
1:02
Simon Nemec’s wrister wins it in 2OT for the Devils
Simon Nemec finds the winning goal as the Devils outlast the Hurricanes in double overtime.
Edmonton Oilers 7, Los Angeles Kings 4
LA leads 2-1
It takes a full-team effort to get up off the proverbial canvas when down 0-2 in a series, and that’s just what the Oilers got on Friday. Ten different Oilers hit the scoresheet in this one, including superstars like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, as well players further down the lineup like Connor Brown and Evander Kane. The Oilers also made the switch in goal to Calvin Pickard for this game, and he responded with 24 saves on 28 shots. On the Kings’ side, Adrian Kempe had his fourth goal and fifth assist of the playoffs, putting him into first in the points race and tied for first in the goals race. Recap.
0:44
Connor McDavid’s empty-netter secures Game 3 for the Oilers
Connor McDavid notches the empty-netter to secure a Game 3 win for the Oilers.
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Greg Wyshynski
NEWARK, N.J. — Simon Nemec hasn’t had an ideal start to his NHL career. But in Game 3 of the New Jersey Devils‘ Stanley Cup playoff series against the Carolina Hurricanes, he finally had his career highlight.
The 21-year-old defenseman scored an unassisted goal at 2:36 of double overtime on Friday night to give the Devils a 3-2 win and new life, cutting the Hurricanes’ series lead to 2-1.
In the process, Nemec, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 NHL draft, had the most impactful moment of his pro career with his first playoff goal.
“I was so happy,” he said. “Amazing feeling. It’s been a tough season for me, and that’s a really big win for us.”
A native of Slovakia, Nemec spent his first season after the draft in the American Hockey League. He split time between the AHL and the Devils in Year 2, thrust into action because of injuries to the New Jersey defense. He split time between the NHL and the minors again this season. Nemec has played 87 games in the NHL, with five goals and 18 assists while skating to a minus-17.
He was a frequent healthy scratch in New Jersey, including Game 1 on Sunday, and his lackluster play caused many to wonder if Nemec would live up to his lofty draft position. Nemec was last on the Devils in goals above replacement at minus-8.7, according to Evolving Hockey.
Thanks to injuries to defensemen Luke Hughes and Brenden Dillon, Nemec was called upon in Game 2 against Carolina and was back in the lineup for Game 3, in which the Devils lost defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic to injury after just 10 shifts. That injury, plus the multiple overtimes, meant massive increases in ice time for veterans such as Brian Dumoulin (36:29) and Brett Pesce (32:25), as well as more responsibility for Nemec.
“You just need guys to step up at the right times,” Dumoulin said. “He knew he was going to be going out there, we’re going to be relying on him, and we needed him. You could see that he took that moment. He wasn’t scared of it, and he took the reins of it.”
Nemec said the overtime goal, which beat Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen (34 saves), was the kind of boost he needs in his career.
“Yeah, it helps me a lot,” he said. “I feel like my confidence is back the last couple games. I’m just trying to play my game and do this stuff. I have to play offense a little bit, too, so my confidence is higher, and I just feel good about myself.”
Devils coach Sheldon Keefe admitted that he dreamed about defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler, who returned to the lineup for the first time since Feb. 4 and played 27:09, being the Game 3 hero.
“But if I was really thinking, I would have said, ‘Wouldn’t this be something if the young guy who just stepped up so big for us here, if he ended the game?'” Keefe said.
The message the coach gave his team in the overtime intermissions was one of aggressiveness. That apparently wasn’t lost on Nemec.
“We’ve got to go win this hockey game. We don’t want to sit back, we don’t want this game to go on forever,” Keefe said. “Credit Nemo with doing that. To have the mindset to do it, not just sitting back and conserving energy. He was on the front foot. You love to see it and love to see him get rewarded.”
Game 4 of the series will be Sunday afternoon in New Jersey.
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