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We finally made it through the end of the 2023 NFL draft, and there was certainly no shortage of surprises; however, if there was one constant, it’s that the SEC would show out.

The SEC had the most players drafted with 62 total selections, followed by the Big Ten with 55 players and the Big 12 with 30 players. Alabama and Georgia led all schools with 10 players drafted from each team. Speaking of Georgia, its defense has been dominating the field and draft board the past couple years. Over the 2023 and 2022 drafts, 13 defensive players have been selected from Georgia, and five of them have been drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles.

After covering these players over the past three to five years and talking to college coaches, our CFB reporters break down some of the week’s most interesting selections.


Based on covering these players last year, who was your favorite first-round pick?

Ryan McGee: The Houston Texans needed to find starters on both sides of the ball and all they did was grab the No. 1B-ranked QB on everyone’s lists in C.J. Stroud and then fifteen minutes later grabbed a defender who I believe was the nation’s best college football player in 2022, Will Anderson, via a sneaky trade up. They could have immediately closed their laptops and gone to bed for the rest of the weekend and still received an “A” for their efforts. Are they going to win the AFC South this fall? No. Will they be in position to win it more often than not over the following years? Probably, thanks to last Thursday night.

Blake Baumgartner: How can you not like what the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles did Thursday night? Howie Roseman and Nick Sirianni don’t appear to be content with losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They moved up one spot with the Bears to select possibly the best player in the draft in Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter — worth the risk at No. 9 for a team with a well-established hierarchy in the locker room — and watched Carter’s teammate, linebacker Nolan Smith, fall into their lap with their second first-round pick (No. 30). Both Carter and Smith bring a championship foundation and should be Day 1 starters for a defense that permitted 301.5 YPG in 2022 (second in the NFL). The Athens, Georgia, to Philadelphia (defensive tackle Jordan Davis, linebacker Nakobe Dean, Carter, Smith and defensive back Kelee Ringo) pipeline continues.

Harry Lyles Jr.: After Geno Smith had a career year last season, the Seattle Seahawks got him another playmaker in the first round in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, somebody who was considered one of the best wide receivers in college football going into 2022. Put Smith-Njigba and his route-running ability and ball-tracking skills alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and the Seahawks immediately have one of the best receiving corps in pro football. Especially if Smith-Njigba turns out as well as his running mates from 2021 did in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.

Adam Rittenberg: The wide receivers went later in this draft, and several could be looked at as major steals. Boston College‘s Zay Flowers is electric and productive, and he would fit in just about anywhere. Baltimore was wise to add him in the wake of its mega contract for quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens clearly need more reliable receivers to build around Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews in an offense now under the direction of Todd Monken. Flowers thrived at BC despite different coordinators and quarterbacks. He passed up more NIL money elsewhere to remain with the Eagles in 2022, and finished with career highs in receptions (78), receiving yards (1,077) and receiving touchdowns (12). He’s a great pickup for the Ravens and Jackson.

David Hale: The New England Patriots invested some draft capital in both a punter and a kicker — the type of draft a rookie fantasy football owner makes — but it’s hard to argue the Patriots didn’t find some serious first-round value in landing Oregon corner Christian Gonzalez. At 6-foot-1, Gonzalez has the size to match up with anyone, but his quickness, versatility and ability to track the ball make him genuinely special. That he fell all the way to the 17th pick — after two smaller corners, Devon Witherspoon and Emmanuel Forbes — was either a stroke of brilliance by the Seahawks and Commanders or a stroke of luck for New England. Gonzalez fits an immediate need and should be a huge boost to the Pats’ secondary in 2023, with legitimate rookie of the year potential. Worst-case scenario, he adds depth to a unit that needed it, and has all the tools to develop into one of the league’s most physical corners in years to come.

Chris Low: There never should have been a debate (and teams are prone to overthinking it way too much), but the Carolina Panthers got it right with the No. 1 pick. Bryce Young immediately changes that franchise’s trajectory. He’s ready to be the starting quarterback from Day 1 and a difference-maker from Day 1. It’s never completely smooth sailing for rookie quarterbacks in the NFL, but Young’s ability to make plays under duress and find open receivers no matter how many defenders are breathing down his neck are what make him so special. His uncanny feel in the pocket will serve him well at the next level, and while everybody wants to talk about his lack of size, go turn on the tape from the past two seasons and watch him carve apart defenses and do it without seemingly breaking a sweat.

Paolo Uggetti: I know taking running backs in the first round, let alone the top 10, is not en vogue, but Bijan Robinson is not just any running back. Robinson is easily one of the best prospects at the position in recent years, and the Atlanta Falcons are getting a dynamic player who will impact their team right away out of the backfield and as a receiver, too. For the third year in a row, the Falcons have taken a playmaker with a high ceiling following the selection of wide receiver Drake London last year and Kyle Pitts the year before. Atlanta is slowly building a really intriguing offense with a potential for plenty of explosive plays. Now if they could only find a franchise quarterback …


Who was the biggest steal of the draft?

Baumgartner: I wasn’t sure where Michigan State wide receiver Jayden Reed was going to go. The Green Bay Packers nabbed him midway through the second round, over the likes of Rashee Rice (SMU), Marvin Mims (Oklahoma), Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee) and Cedric Tillman (Tennessee). Alongside high school and college teammate Payton Thorne, Reed showed what he was capable of during an 11-win season for the Spartans in 2021 (59 receptions for 1,026 yards, 10 TDs and two punt returns for scores). Injuries limited him a bit last fall (55 catches for 636 yards, five TDs), but he’s electric when he has the ball in his hands and has a knack for coming down with 50-50 balls, despite his 6-foot, 190-pound frame. He will provide Jordan Love a dynamic playmaker on the outside as the remake of Green Bay’s offense commences.

Rittenberg: The Pittsburgh Steelers typically know what they’re doing on draft weekend, and came through again with some excellent choices, including Georgia tight end Darnell Washington in the third round and Wisconsin linebacker Nick Herbig in the fourth. Washington is a massive man at 6-7 and 264 pounds, and he will aid the Steelers both in blocking and pass-catching. Imagine Washington and Pat Freiermuth terrorizing defenses in the red zone. Herbig was relentless and productive with the Badgers, leading the team in sacks in each of the past two seasons, and recording 30 tackles for loss. He will once again team with second-round pick Keeanu Benton, giving the Steelers a tandem from one of college football’s perennially elite defenses.

Hale: Well, I’m an Eagles fan, and they landed arguably the draft’s top talent in Jalen Carter at No. 9, a legitimate top-10 talent in Nolan Smith at No. 30, a guy who jumps off the tape at safety in Sydney Brown in the third round and a corner many thought would be a first-rounder this time last year in Kelee Ringo in the fourth round. Who’s the biggest steal of the bunch? Why bother debating. The Eagles got value at nearly every pick, so even if one or two ultimately fail to live up to their potential, it’s essentially impossible to argue with the decision to invest in them.

Low: Centers are typically drafted lower than they should be, but seeing Michigan‘s Olusegun Oluwatimi slip to the fifth round was surprising — but great news for the Seahawks that they could wait that long to get their center of the future. The 6-3, 310-pound Oluwatimi will play 10 years in the NFL and be a fixture in the middle of that Seattle offensive line. He played on college football’s best offensive line last season and won the Outland Trophy as the top interior lineman in college football and the Rimington Award as the top center. He has played in three different systems (Air Force, Virginia and Michigan) and will develop rapidly into a top-tier NFL center.

Uggetti: Maybe it’s the fact that I had a front row seat to watch USC defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu last season and got to see how he seemed to always find his way in the backfield pressuring a quarterback on his way to 13.5 sacks and an All-American season. Maybe it’s that Tuipulotu should slide in seamlessly into a defense that already features Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and impact their unit right away. Either way, this pick wasn’t just a great fit for both the former Trojan and the Los Angeles Chargers, but it has the chance to be a real steal in the long run.


What was your biggest surprise?

McGee: Every winter I receive calls from my NFL friends, met in various press boxes and pro days over the years, to ask about guys I’ve seen play a lot that perhaps they have not, and every winter there’s always a name that keeps coming up and the line of questioning around him totally catches me off guard. This year that guy was Nolan Smith. I was asked, “How tall is he really?” and “How hurt was he really?” My response was always, “Ask Spencer Rattler, Hendon Hooker, Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young.” So, with those March questions in mind, I suppose I shouldn’t have been surprised when he fell all the way to the end of the first round. Just as I won’t be surprised when yet another NFC East QB falls all the way to the turf wrapped in Smith’s arms.

Lyles: The Lions selecting Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell stood out to me at pick No. 18. I don’t know that anybody had him as a first-round pick, but given what we know about Dan Campbell and the attitude and energy he brings, Campbell is his kind of player. I asked Kirk Ferentz about Campbell’s place among the players he has coached in his two decades at Iowa prior to the Music City Bowl against Kentucky, and he told me, “You can’t get better than Jack Campbell … everything he does is exceptional.” Much like his new head coach in Detroit, he brings incredible energy, is going to uplift everybody around him, and give you everything he’s got every single day. Despite the surprise as to the order in which Campbell was picked, it feels like he landed in the absolute right spot.

Rittenberg: The reaction to Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness going at No. 13 from Big Ten coaches I talked to this weekend suggests the Packers reached a bit. Green Bay has done well with defensive players from the Big Ten, and Van Ness clearly has upside as a pass-rusher, recording 13.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss the past two seasons. But he also played on a defense filled with reliable standouts, including Campbell, third-round draft pick Riley Moss, fellow linemen Noah Shannon and Joe Evans, and others. He won’t have the same security with the Packers’ defense, which struggled for much of the 2022 season. Green Bay could have added defensive backs Christian Gonzalez or Emmanuel Forbes, or an interior force like Calijah Kancey. They took a bit of a gamble on Van Ness. We’ll see if it pays off.

Low: Let’s say I’m surprised in a good way that Pitt‘s Kancey was selected among the top 20 picks at No. 19. At 281 pounds, he might not be the prototypical defensive tackle in the NFL, but he plays a lot bigger and more powerful than his listed weight. He’s a terrific run-stopper, and once he gets his hands on you, it’s usually over. He had 27 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. Kancey’s speed (he had the fastest 40-yard dash time for a defensive tackle at the NFL combine since 2006) could allow the Bucs to get creative with him. Either way, good for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for valuing production over measurables and grabbing Kancey with their first-round pick.

Hale: Stetson Bennett never needs to play a snap in the NFL for his reputation to be fully established. He could easily call it a career, retire to his hometown in South Georgia, open a few car dealerships and never pay for a meal in the state again. And yet, here he is, a fourth-round draft pick with a real shot to learn behind a fellow Bulldog in Matthew Stafford with the Los Angeles Rams. Two years ago, no one thought Bennett could be a championship QB. A year ago, he won his first title but still seemed to be facing impossible odds as an NFL prospect. Who wants to bet against him doing something special with the Rams now, too?

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MLB offseason grades: Judging the Nimmo-for-Semien swap for Mets, Rangers

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MLB offseason grades: Judging the Nimmo-for-Semien swap for Mets, Rangers

It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.

Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.

ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.

Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin


Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien

Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo

Mets grade: C+

One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.

For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.

That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.

One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.

Rangers grade: C+

If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.

We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.

The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.

Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle


Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward

Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles grade: D

The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.

Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.

I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.

Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.

On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.

That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.

And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.

Angels grade: A-

This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.

And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.

Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.

The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.

The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle


The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-

If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.

It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.

Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.

Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.

He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield

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Sources: Rangers, Mets to swap Semien, Nimmo

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Sources: Rangers, Mets to swap Semien, Nimmo

The New York Mets and Texas Rangers have agreed to a trade that would send second baseman Marcus Semien to the Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers, sources told ESPN on Sunday.

Nimmo agreed to waive his no-trade clause, sources said, allowing the deal to be consummated, pending MLB approval. His tenure with the Mets started when they chose him with the 13th overall pick in the 2011 draft.

Semien, a three-time All-Star, joined the Rangers in 2022 and won a World Series with them the next season.

Texas entered the offseason looking for areas to save money, with its payroll being cut and four players — Semien, shortstop Corey Seager, and right-handers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi — set to make in excess of $25 million next year. While the Rangers will actually take on more long-term money in Nimmo, who is owed $101.25 million over the next five seasons, the per-year sum is lower, with Semien set to make $72 million for the next three seasons.

The trade is the first move in what’s expected to be a busy winter for both teams — particularly the Mets. As a result of the team’s slow collapse over the season’s final 3½ months, New York missed the postseason and eventually underwent significant turnover in its coaching staff. The acquisition of Semien — who won a Gold Glove this year — aligns with president of baseball operations David Stearns’ primary goal this winter of improving run prevention.

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Sizing up the postseason picture, including every bowl matchup, with one week to go

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Sizing up the postseason picture, including every bowl matchup, with one week to go

With one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are coming into sharper focus — except where they aren’t.

Things are pretty settled at the top of the field, as a relatively upset-free Week 13 left a half-dozen or so teams that are virtual locks for the CFP. But the ACC in particular has numerous moving parts in terms of who will play for the conference championship and likely make the playoff, and league title-game matchups are unsettled pretty much everywhere.

Meanwhile, teams sitting at five wins are sweating things out, with one more chance to become bowl eligible.

As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech

Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: The ACC doomsday scenario of its conference champion being left out of the playoff in favor of a team from the American — Tulane or North Texas — and the Sun Belt’s James Madison is still alive, but it feels like a we’ll-believe-it-when-we-see-it thing.

For now, I still don’t think the ACC champ would end up behind two Group of 5 teams, regardless of who it is. That would be a lot easier to feel good about if Miami had a straightforward path to the ACC title game, but that is not the case. Instead, the Hurricanes need to beat Pitt and would need Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and Cal to beat SMU. It’s possible. It’s not likely. The title game will be SMU and Virginia if they both win next week, which is why SMU gets the ACC nod for the time being; the Ponies have been the better team of late.

The rest of the playoff field is mostly straightforward. Six teams from the SEC and Big Ten are locks (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon). So is Texas Tech of the Big 12. Notre Dame (Stanford), Alabama (Auburn) and Oklahoma (LSU) are probably in with wins, but one of those slots would go to BYU if the Cougars beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.

Schlabach: The appetizer to the final weekend of the regular season didn’t produce much drama, as every CFP contender — outside of the ACC at least — found a way to get things done, mostly against inferior competition.

With two weeks left before the CFP selection committee announces the 12-team bracket on Dec. 7, I’m betting that five teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech — have punched their tickets, regardless of what happens in their regular-season finales and respective conference championship games (if they make it there).

Three more teams — Oregon, Ole Miss and Oklahoma — can probably do the same if they win this week. The Ducks erased any doubts about their overall strength with an impressive 42-27 win against USC. They’ll close the regular season at Washington on Saturday.

The Rebels had the weekend off, and they might have needed the time to refocus as speculation continues to heat up about whether coach Lane Kiffin will leave for LSU or Florida. Ole Miss plays at rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday.

The surging Sooners picked up their third straight victory against a ranked opponent, taking down Missouri 17-6 at home. Oklahoma hosts LSU in its regular-season finale Saturday.

Notre Dame and Alabama would probably be in good shape for at-large bids with wins this coming weekend; the Irish play at struggling Stanford on Saturday, while the Crimson Tide travel to Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. However, they might still be at the mercy of the selection committee, depending on what happens in other leagues.


CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: No changes for me here from last week, but it should be noted that Oregon is back on track offensively after a couple of uninspiring showings in late October and early November.

Quarterback Dante Moore looks like he is capable of leading a team to the national title, but first the Ducks have a big rivalry game with Washington to navigate this week.

Schlabach: Three of the top four seeds continued to play well this weekend, as Ohio State crushed Rutgers 42-9 at home. Next the Buckeyes travel to Michigan, where they’ll attempt to exorcise some demons in “The Game.” The Buckeyes have dropped four games in a row to the Wolverines, including a stunning 13-10 loss at home last season. The Buckeyes were ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings and somehow fell to the 6-5 Wolverines. Emotions will surely be running high once again at the Big House.

Texas A&M walloped FCS program Samford 48-0 in its final warmup game. The Aggies will play at rival Texas for the first time in 15 years on Saturday. Texas A&M won 24-17 at Texas on Nov. 25, 2010. The Longhorns won the past two games in the series, both in College Station.

Georgia took care of business in a 35-3 win against Charlotte. The Bulldogs will play rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Last season, Georgia had to overcome a 17-point deficit and needed eight overtimes to put the Yellow Jackets away in a 44-42 victory.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Ohio State is the deserved No. 1 seed. Its defense has been historically good, and the Buckeyes haven’t been challenged since opening the season with Texas. But they also haven’t exactly seen the best the Big Ten has to offer without Indiana, Oregon, USC or Iowa on the schedule this year.

It would be a lot easier to be more confident about Ohio State with a couple of more ranked teams on its résumé, but that’s how things work out with schedules now that conferences are so big. It makes this week’s game against Michigan more interesting and potentially sets up a fascinating Big Ten title game.

Schlabach: My quarterfinal and semifinal matchups remain unchanged from a week ago. The Cotton Bowl contest would feature two of the best transfer quarterbacks in the FBS: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.

I have Georgia slipping past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, although the Red Raiders’ menacing defensive front would be quite the challenge for the Bulldogs’ much-improved offensive line. Georgia seems to be peaking at the right time, unlike last season, and few coaches know how to get things done in the postseason like Kirby Smart.

A Rose Bowl game between Notre Dame and Ohio State would be a TV ratings bonanza, and Texas A&M-Oregon in New Orleans would be another entertaining game. I have both favorites moving on to the semifinals.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Florida vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Florida International vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Boise State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. UNLV

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. Army
Schlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC

Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State

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