Love ’em, hate ’em or somewhere in between? What players think of MLB’s new rules
Shorter games. More action in the batter’s box and on the bases. Outs becoming hits again. Major League Baseball’s new rules seem to have near universal appeal among fans. But what do the players think?
We asked ESPN MLB reporters Alden Gonzalez, Joon Lee and Jesse Rogers to sit down with a handful of players and managers to find out how the new rules are affecting them. This isn’t a scientific survey — just a chance for a few thoughtful big leaguers to speak in depth about how they feel about the radical changes to their sport.
What’s your favorite thing about the new rules so far?
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs outfielder: Not having the shift. Being able to have some of those ground balls be hits is huge, rewarding guys for hard-hit balls. And the line drive being back in play. I think I’ve had two hits so far that would have been outs.
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres starting pitcher: None that I can think of.
Mark Canha, New York Mets outfielder: Favorite thing — the games being over in 2½ hours more often than 3½ hours. I do remember last year my garage near my apartment where I was parking my car closed at 12. So it’d be like [with] my wife and my kids, it was a rush to get home just to make it to the garage sometimes.
Matt Moore, Los Angeles Angels relief pitcher: I don’t know that I have a favorite thing, but it is nice feeling like the game has been condensed down to more of a reasonable time frame. As a reliever now I’m heading out [to the bullpen] in the third inning, and you no longer have an hour ’til the end of the third inning. It’s like, ‘Hey, I might have a half hour.’ The pace of the game, and depending on which matchup it is — the other day it was [Tyler Anderson] and [Zack] Greinke, and we were in the fourth inning after like 30 minutes. It was very quick. So that’s one thing that I do like.
Tony Kemp, Oakland Athletics outfielder/infielder: Probably my favorite rule has been the disengagement limits, because I think sometimes it [used to] get to be too much. It can get repetitive, and pitchers fall into a rhythm of like three or four times throwing over, and it prolongs the game.
Elvis Andrus, Chicago White Sox shortstop: The bigger bases. It’s a lot easier for everything: stealing, making double plays. It’s helped the game a lot. I think that’s the only one I like.
Kyle Higashioka, New York Yankees catcher: I like the runner on second [base] in extra [innings] because I don’t want to play 18 innings, and sometimes those games when it’s 0-0 or 1-1, it’s destined to go six more innings. You’re just dreading it. So now at least the thing is both teams get their chance no matter what. I think it just ends the game quicker and it’s actually pretty exciting because it’s high stakes immediately.
Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays manager: Pitch clock. The pace of game. It’s helped baseball. I’ve enjoyed it. I hope the fans have enjoyed it. It’s obviously a faster pace and seemed to have created a little bit more action in the game, which is a good thing.
What’s one thing about the rule changes you think needs improvement?
Happ: I’d give the pitcher one disengagement with no one on and probably make the clock 17 seconds with no one on base.
Canha: Make the pitch clock 20 seconds [with the bases empty] instead of 15 seconds. Give the pitchers and hitters a little bit more time because we can get gassed when there’s a long at-bat. I like to step in and breathe and try to clear my head before I hit, and guys aren’t getting an opportunity to go through their routine. I don’t like it when I’m up there. I think the game moving faster is a good thing, but it feels rushed. It feels like you’re getting winded while the at-bat’s happening because you’re exerting a lot of energy to slow the bat down and catch your breath. It does feel a little bit ridiculous. I think I had a 13-pitch at-bat with Clayton Kershaw the other day in L.A. and it was like, by the end of it, you’re looking at each other. This is f—ing crazy. Me and Kershaw are like, we could kind of feel it through your eyes and vibe. He’s at the end of his outing. The crowd’s getting into it. He’s trying to win his 200th game and the emotions are picking up. That situation, it was so silly. I think if I were to make an amendment to the rule, not that anyone cares or will take my advice, but I would say once you get to 3-2, you should get another timeout.
Moore: I think a pitcher can get a timeout, like the hitter does with two strikes, but we can take it any time. I don’t really love the fact that I can’t call time. Look, I’m not a “it’s not fair” type of guy, but there really should be something for the pitcher. The other day I’m in Boston and I have mud on my cleats, and I can feel this pressure. Like, I’m not comfortable because my spikes are clogged up, and the clock is ticking. The umpire [made an exception for me this time], but it’s not the same. The thing I like about it is the game is quicker; the moments that matter are tied closer together. But I don’t really enjoy — now I’m throwing in a tighter ballgame in the second half of the game. I’d like to have a different feeling than, “I have to get going.” Maybe I want to take a breath. Maybe the moment coming up — this is what the game is going to come down to, that at-bat right here. And I don’t want to feel like I’m rushing a decision, or trying to just get the ball out just because of the clock.
Snell: Stolen bases. It’s a joke. Can’t throw no one out. You have to be 1.2/1.3 [seconds] to the plate. If you pick twice, they’re getting crazy jumps and leads. Stolen bases are a joke. And the bases are closer. The game was made perfectly and they changed the game. I need to be better at pressing buttons. Sometimes you’re thinking about how to attack a hitter, then you need to hit the buttons. I’d like to be able to say I’m pressing the wrong buttons. More time would help.
Kemp: I think the pitch clock needs to have a little bit of feel in terms of, like, later in the game, seventh, eighth, ninth. You’re so locked in on what you gotta do, but also you have to worry about a clock. I don’t know if you saw [33-year-old rookie] Drew Maggi. He got called on a [pitch-clock violation]. It’s like, “Come on.” … I always have to make sure I’m checking where the clock is. That sucks. … I got banged for a violation two games ago, to start an at-bat out in the eighth. Walking up to the plate, getting my bearings and stuff like that and then, “Pitch-clock violation.” I mean — is it good for the speed of the game? Yeah, it’s good. But I think in certain situations you need to make an adjustment.
Andrus: The beginning of every inning I would make it like the beginning of the game, there’s no clock. Then as soon as you step in, you get the clock on. If you’re a catcher or center fielder, you don’t even have time to grab a cup of water. That’s the only tweak that I would do.
Cash: I’d eliminate the limit on throwovers. I think that’s stupid.
Higashioka: The new [pickoffs] rule does kind of hang the catchers out to dry, I think a little bit, because there’s really not much more we can do other than make sure we’re making a good throw, make sure the pitchers are quick to the plate, and we try to use our picks strategically.
Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals manager: Once in a while, it would be nice, with no runners on, for pitchers to have the ability to [step off]. With the pitch clock, the batter has every opportunity to disengage once per at-bat to gather himself, but a pitcher doesn’t really have a way of doing that without a runner on.
What has been the biggest on-the-field impact of the new rules?
Happ: Stolen bases. I don’t think slug is way up. On-base might be up a tick and batting average might be up, but that’s mostly on singles. The biggest impact is in how much guys are running.
Moore: I think the shift has made a pretty big impact, from what I can see. I haven’t seen any data on it; it’s just anecdotally, my experience shows me that it seems like you have a lot more infielders at spots where there would [typically] be an infielder. So the end range of their positions is matching up with where another position player would typically be with the shift. And so on balls where they almost got there — that’s where they would have the extra guy typically. I can see that. I mean it’s only been a few weeks, but I can see that being a bigger deal.
Kemp: I’d probably say the disengagements [have had the biggest effect] because guys are stealing more. … I think if it was disengagements and same-size bases, it would be the same as it is right now.
Andrus: Timing. The game is so fast. I know for the younger guys, it’s exciting, they like it. But for me, I love the thinking, especially during an at-bat. The last thing you want to be is rushed. This clock rushes you a lot. You have to get used to it and anticipate it.
Cash: When you tell pitchers he’s not allowed to throw over, you’re going to see the immediate effects of baserunners stealing. Fans spoke. That’s what they wanted so they’re seeing it.
What has surprised you most about the rule changes so far?
Happ: I’m probably surprised by how few violations there have been overall. And [not a lot of] meaningful ones, late in games.
Moore: It’s the time of the game. I mean, I heard about it. All last year people were like, “Oh we’re playing 2½-hour games.” But the other day we played in Oakland at 1 o’clock and I’m back at the hotel at 4:30, and that’s like typically when we’re getting done with the game.
Snell: All the stolen bases and how uncomfortable hitters are with the clock. They looked rushed as much as we do. We both feel rushed.
Canha: The amount of stolen bases. It’s insane how much everybody’s just running. Let’s just run every time we can. And it feels like sometimes the pitchers just don’t have a chance. Athletes nowadays are so good in the big leagues, it’s a lot. Most guys can run really well. Before, it felt so much harder. And so the percentages of how much it mattered, stealing bases was kind of, in my opinion, an insignificant part of the game. And now it’s becoming much more significant. Somebody is going to break Rickey Henderson’s stolen base record.
Marmol: I’m not sure if anything has been surprising. I’ve liked the pitch clock, but nothing’s been really surprising. It will be interesting to see how teams begin to adjust — how they use their disengagements and pitchouts and things of that nature. We knew we’d see an uptick [in stolen bases], but I didn’t foresee the success rate being as high as it’s been.
Andrus: During spring training I got called [for] a strike twice for being late, but in the season, there hasn’t been anything crazy.
Tommy Pham, Mets outfielder: I got a violation and they had Jeff Nelson behind home plate. And when I walked up, there was 17 seconds up there and he banged me and I was like, “Jeff, there’s 17 seconds up there.” And he was like, “Oh my buzzer’s off.” What? Yeah. It’s just, I don’t know who’s doing the clock operator, but it’s almost like they’re just letting any person do it.
Higashioka: It’s just surprised me how there’s not as many negative effects that I probably could have imagined. At first I thought, oh, it could get dicey. But I think overall the umpires have shown a decent amount of understanding in terms of shutting the clock off when things happen. And it’s also, we’ve gotten used to it. It hasn’t really taken me out of my normal rhythm behind the plate.
How much has your opinion of the new rules changed after one month of play?
Happ: I was pretty bullish going into it. I think seeing it work through spring made it easier to see how it would work through the regular season.
Moore: I don’t think my opinion has changed because I didn’t come into it upset about having a change. I knew there was going to be something I had to do different — just mind the clock. Other than that it doesn’t really affect me a lot.
Canha: It’s changed. I still like the pitch clock. The fact that the games aren’t as long. I think the bases being close together and how the pitch clock’s affected the base stealing is a little crazy. If anything, the one thing that we really need to keep our eyes on is the operators of the clock. It’s like wildly inconsistent. There was one time when in San Francisco I was on deck and somebody reached base, Jeff McNeil, and then I’m up to bat and they started the clock at 15 seconds and I’m supposed to have 20 seconds. It’s just like this is playing a big role in affecting how some of these at-bats turn out. But, I got into the box and saw that I had 10 seconds left on the clock and I was like, just got up there and I was like, “Oh god.” And then I think Logan Webb was pitching and he got on the mound and he looked at the clock and he has to rush his first pitch and he yanked it out for a ball. I guess it helped me there.
Kemp: A lot of guys are kind of getting used to it, but it’s still taking time. I think the hardest one is when there’s guys on base and a pitcher’s trying to get his bearings [and has to focus on the clock] — that’s not really baseball. Baseball is a thinking game. The game goes long for a reason — because it’s not just go out there and throw throw throw throw throw. It is what it is. You either get with it or get packing, and I like playing in the big leagues.
Andrus: I thought during at-bats it was going to be a really big adjustment for me. It hasn’t. It’s made the game quicker.
Higashioka: A good amount because I was very unsure about the pitch clock at first, and now I don’t care. It doesn’t bother me. I just thought that it could lead to things being rushed in certain aspects of the game. Maybe not as well thought out in terms of you can’t process information fast enough to make a good decision on the next pitch call or something, but overall felt like it’s just still very standard.
What do you hear most when talking to players/teammates about the rule changes?
Snell: I hear them talking or I’ve talked to them about just feeling rushed.
Andrus: Usually pitchers and position players are going to be in different places, but so far I haven’t heard anything negative. You’ll hear one or two comments about it but nothing drastic.
Moore: I think for the most part, what I’ve seen, most major league players have been really professional about it. It’s affecting the at-bats, it’s affecting the rhythm of the game, the approach of guys, and I haven’t seen many big blowups. I feel like it’s been pretty modest. … As a player, it just feels like there’s not a lot of back-and-forth with the league. It feels like, “Hey, this is what we’re doing. You guys aren’t on board with it, but we’re doing it anyway.” Stuff like that. But it’s the way the CBA is written. They have certain unilateral power and we just kind of have to deal with it. There’s part of it that you feel like you’re not being listened to, but we don’t have the hands on the power like they do. Sometimes screaming in the wind isn’t the best thing for our league to do.
Higashioka: I think they just laugh at the violations that occur around the league. Somebody like Albert Abreu punched the guy out on a violation, so we’re all laughing about it. When that happens, it’s kind of ridiculous, but I mean, everybody knows the rules by now.
Canha: There’s still a learning curve and people are getting used to it and it’s uncomfortable. Certainly the first month. I think maybe four months into it, we will probably be done griping about it.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
With one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are coming into sharper focus — except where they aren’t.
Things are pretty settled at the top of the field, as a relatively upset-free Week 13 left a half-dozen or so teams that are virtual locks for the CFP. But the ACC in particular has numerous moving parts in terms of who will play for the conference championship and likely make the playoff, and league title-game matchups are unsettled pretty much everywhere.
Meanwhile, teams sitting at five wins are sweating things out, with one more chance to become bowl eligible.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech
Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: The ACC doomsday scenario of its conference champion being left out of the playoff in favor of a team from the American — Tulane or North Texas — and the Sun Belt’s James Madison is still alive, but it feels like a we’ll-believe-it-when-we-see-it thing.
For now, I still don’t think the ACC champ would end up behind two Group of 5 teams, regardless of who it is. That would be a lot easier to feel good about if Miami had a straightforward path to the ACC title game, but that is not the case. Instead, the Hurricanes need to beat Pitt and would need Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and Cal to beat SMU. It’s possible. It’s not likely. The title game will be SMU and Virginia if they both win next week, which is why SMU gets the ACC nod for the time being; the Ponies have been the better team of late.
The rest of the playoff field is mostly straightforward. Six teams from the SEC and Big Ten are locks (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon). So is Texas Tech of the Big 12. Notre Dame (Stanford), Alabama (Auburn) and Oklahoma (LSU) are probably in with wins, but one of those slots would go to BYU if the Cougars beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Schlabach: The appetizer to the final weekend of the regular season didn’t produce much drama, as every CFP contender — outside of the ACC at least — found a way to get things done, mostly against inferior competition.
With two weeks left before the CFP selection committee announces the 12-team bracket on Dec. 7, I’m betting that five teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech — have punched their tickets, regardless of what happens in their regular-season finales and respective conference championship games (if they make it there).
Three more teams — Oregon, Ole Miss and Oklahoma — can probably do the same if they win this week. The Ducks erased any doubts about their overall strength with an impressive 42-27 win against USC. They’ll close the regular season at Washington on Saturday.
The Rebels had the weekend off, and they might have needed the time to refocus as speculation continues to heat up about whether coach Lane Kiffin will leave for LSU or Florida. Ole Miss plays at rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday.
The surging Sooners picked up their third straight victory against a ranked opponent, taking down Missouri 17-6 at home. Oklahoma hosts LSU in its regular-season finale Saturday.
Notre Dame and Alabama would probably be in good shape for at-large bids with wins this coming weekend; the Irish play at struggling Stanford on Saturday, while the Crimson Tide travel to Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. However, they might still be at the mercy of the selection committee, depending on what happens in other leagues.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: No changes for me here from last week, but it should be noted that Oregon is back on track offensively after a couple of uninspiring showings in late October and early November.
Quarterback Dante Moore looks like he is capable of leading a team to the national title, but first the Ducks have a big rivalry game with Washington to navigate this week.
Schlabach: Three of the top four seeds continued to play well this weekend, as Ohio State crushed Rutgers 42-9 at home. Next the Buckeyes travel to Michigan, where they’ll attempt to exorcise some demons in “The Game.” The Buckeyes have dropped four games in a row to the Wolverines, including a stunning 13-10 loss at home last season. The Buckeyes were ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings and somehow fell to the 6-5 Wolverines. Emotions will surely be running high once again at the Big House.
Texas A&M walloped FCS program Samford 48-0 in its final warmup game. The Aggies will play at rival Texas for the first time in 15 years on Saturday. Texas A&M won 24-17 at Texas on Nov. 25, 2010. The Longhorns won the past two games in the series, both in College Station.
Georgia took care of business in a 35-3 win against Charlotte. The Bulldogs will play rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Last season, Georgia had to overcome a 17-point deficit and needed eight overtimes to put the Yellow Jackets away in a 44-42 victory.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Ohio State is the deserved No. 1 seed. Its defense has been historically good, and the Buckeyes haven’t been challenged since opening the season with Texas. But they also haven’t exactly seen the best the Big Ten has to offer without Indiana, Oregon, USC or Iowa on the schedule this year.
It would be a lot easier to be more confident about Ohio State with a couple of more ranked teams on its résumé, but that’s how things work out with schedules now that conferences are so big. It makes this week’s game against Michigan more interesting and potentially sets up a fascinating Big Ten title game.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal and semifinal matchups remain unchanged from a week ago. The Cotton Bowl contest would feature two of the best transfer quarterbacks in the FBS: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.
I have Georgia slipping past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, although the Red Raiders’ menacing defensive front would be quite the challenge for the Bulldogs’ much-improved offensive line. Georgia seems to be peaking at the right time, unlike last season, and few coaches know how to get things done in the postseason like Kirby Smart.
A Rose Bowl game between Notre Dame and Ohio State would be a TV ratings bonanza, and Texas A&M-Oregon in New Orleans would be another entertaining game. I have both favorites moving on to the semifinals.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. UNLV
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Army
Schlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
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