Ukraine has set the stage for a new era of war – and AI could supercharge it
Drones have been part of the military inventory for decades, but the war in Ukraine has seen a massive escalation in their exploitation. Does this herald the start of a new era in modern warfare, and will the rapid development of AI lead to the inevitable dawn of drone wars?
Unmanned flight predates manned, but the limits of technology have – to date – made unmanned air vehicles (UAV) vulnerable and thus unsuitable for widespread military use.
However, the relatively benign air environment over Afghanistan led to the development of a new generation of loitering platforms – such as the US Reaper – that could fly for over 20 hours and provide live-streaming video to HQs the other side of the world.
Russia has used hundreds of drones to target Ukrainian cities and critical national infrastructure.
Missiles, each costing hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, fly fast, are hard to shoot down and carry a huge explosive payload.
But when supplies ran low, the Russians imported Shahid 136 UAVs from Iran. These UAVs are slow and vulnerable to small-arms fire but can be used as a swarm to overwhelm defences – and some get through.
The Ukrainians have also exploited UAVs to target Russian logistics hubs to great effect, most recently targeting a fuel storage facility on Crimea and another just east of the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia.
However, the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin on Tuesday night looked extremely suspect – the Kremlin is a fortress, with multiple layers of air and land defences, and a slow-speed UAV should never have made it through.
Regardless, the incident demonstrated the broad utility of drones, both as a weapon of destruction, and of deception.
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Why would Russia attack the Kremlin?
Smaller tactical drones have also proven invaluable in this conflict, particularly at the frontline.
As early as 1794, observation balloons were used as an aerial platform for gathering intelligence and spotting artillery, and in World War One, Royal Flying Corps aircraft took the opportunity to drop hand grenades on enemy trench positions.
More than a century later, small UAVs are also being used to fulfil the same role.
Surveillance technology has advanced apace – leveraging advances in the space and satellite markets – with sensors becoming lighter, more powerful and with reduced power requirements.
A sign in central Moscow says drones are banned in the area
Small drones are quiet, cheap, easily reconfigurable, and can provide live-streamed video of enemy positions directly to artillery – like playing a card game when you can see what card the other side has in their hand.
As Russia counters one capability, so the Ukrainians adapt and innovate.
Technology – and its rapid exploitation – has provided Ukraine with an asymmetric advantage in this conflict.
Although the United States has the lead in high-end UAVs, the global leader in the mass market is China, and when coupled with the rapid advances in AI capability, UAVs look set to become a mass-market, high volume, cost-effective military capability.
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Conventional warfighting wisdom is that bigger is better – high-end tanks, aircraft and ships will prevail. However, the Ukraine conflict has demonstrated the huge warfighting potential of UAVs, where quantity has a quality all of its own.
A year ago, the UAV market was focused on domestic parcel deliveries, driverless cars and multi-UAV light shows.
However, the Ukraine conflict has showcased the dramatic potential of UAVs, which have yet to leverage rapid advances in AI.
The stage is set for a new generation of military capability – the drone wars – enabling low-budget decisive military effect, with profound implications for our international, and domestic, security.
More than 100 politicians from 24 different countries, including the UK, the US and the EU, have written a joint letter condemning China over the “arbitrary detention and unfair trial” of Jimmy Lai, a tycoon and pro-democracy campaigner.
The parliamentarians, led by senior British Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, are “urgently” demanding the immediate release of the 77-year-old British citizen, who has been held in solitary confinement at a maximum security prison in Hong Kong for almost four years.
The letter – which will be embarrassing for Beijing – was made public on the eve of Mr Lai’s trial resuming and on the day after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit of economic powers in Brazil.
It also comes as Hong Kong jailed 45 pro-democracy activists.
The group of politicians, who also include representatives from Canada, Australia, Spain, Germany, Ukraine and France, said Mr Lai’s treatment was “inhumane”.
“He is being tried on trumped-up charges arising from his peaceful promotion of democracy, his journalism and his human rights advocacy,” they wrote in the letter, which has been seen by Sky News.
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Starmer meets Chinese president
“The world is watching as the rule of law, media freedom and human rights in Hong Kong are eroded and undermined.
“We stand together in our defence of these fundamental freedoms and in our demand that Jimmy Lai be released immediately and unconditionally.”
Sir Keir raised the case of Mr Lai during remarks released at the start of his talks with Mr Xi on Monday – the first meeting between a British prime minister and the Chinese leader in six years.
The prime minister could be heard expressing concerns about reports of Mr Lai’s deteriorating health. However, he did not appear to call for his immediate release.
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From October: ‘This is what Hong Kong is’
Ms Kearns, the MP for Rutland and Stamford in the East Midlands, said the meeting had been an opportunity to be unequivocal that the UK expects Mr Lai to be freed.
“Jimmy Lai is being inhumanely persecuted for standing up for basic human values,” she said in a statement, released alongside the letter.
“He represents the flame of freedom millions seek around the world.
“We have a duty to fight for Jimmy Lai as a British citizen, and to take a stand against the Chinese Community Party’s erosion of rule of law in Hong Kong.
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Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
“This letter represents the strength of international feeling and commitment of parliamentarians globally to securing Jimmy Lai’s immediate release and return to the UK with his family.”
Mr Lai was famously the proprietor of the Chinese-language newspaper Apple Daily in Hong Kong, which wrote scathing reports about the local authorities and the communist government in mainland China after Britain handed back the territory to Beijing in 1997.
The tabloid was a strong supporter of pro-democracy protesters who took to the streets of Hong Kong to demonstrate against the government in 2019.
But the media mogul was arrested the following year – one of the first victims of a draconian new security law imposed by the Chinese Communist Party.
His newspaper was closed after his bank accounts were frozen.
Mr Lai has since been convicted of illegal assembly and fraud. He is now on trial for sedition over articles published in Apple Daily.
World
Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy activists after accusing them of trying to overthrow the city’s government
Forty-five pro-democracy activists have been jailed in Hong Kong’s largest ever national security trial.
The activists sentenced with jail terms ranging from four years to ten years were accused of conspiracy to commit subversion after holding an unofficial primary election in Hong Kong in 2020.
They were arrested in 2021.
Hong Kong authorities say the defendants were trying to overthrow the territory’s government.
Democracy activist Benny Tai received the longest sentence of ten years. He became the face of the movement when thousands of protesters took to the city’s streets during the “Umbrella Movement” demonstrations.
However, Hong Kong officials accused him of being behind the plan to organise elections to select candidates.
Tai had pleaded guilty, his lawyers argued he believed his election plan was allowed under the city’s Basic Law.
Another prominent activist Joshua Wong received a sentence of more than four years.
Joshua Wong was sentenced to more than four years Pic: AP
Wong became one of the leading figures in the protests. His activism started as a 15 year old when he spearheaded a huge rally against a government plan to change the school curriculum.
Then in 2019 Hong Kong erupted in protests after the city’s government proposed a bill that would allow extradition to mainland China. It peaked in June 2019 when Amnesty International reported that up to two million people marched on the streets, paralysing parts of Hong Kong’s business district.
The extradition bill was later dropped but it had ignited a movement demanding political change and freedom to elect their own leaders in Hong Kong.
China’s central government called the protests “riots” that could not continue.
Hong Kong introduced a national security law in the aftermath of the protests.
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A woman is taken away by police outside the court Pic: Reuters
The US has called the trial “politically motivated”.
Dozens of family and friends of the accused were waiting for the verdict outside the West Kowloon Magistrates Court.
British citizen and media mogul Jimmy Lai is due to testify on Wednesday.
Meeting on the sidelines of the G20 in Brazil, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told China’s President Xi Jinping he’s concerned about the health of Lai.
He faces charges of fraud and the 2019 protests. He has also been charged with sedition and collusion with foreign forces.
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