Ukraine has set the stage for a new era of war – and AI could supercharge it
Drones have been part of the military inventory for decades, but the war in Ukraine has seen a massive escalation in their exploitation. Does this herald the start of a new era in modern warfare, and will the rapid development of AI lead to the inevitable dawn of drone wars?
Unmanned flight predates manned, but the limits of technology have – to date – made unmanned air vehicles (UAV) vulnerable and thus unsuitable for widespread military use.
However, the relatively benign air environment over Afghanistan led to the development of a new generation of loitering platforms – such as the US Reaper – that could fly for over 20 hours and provide live-streaming video to HQs the other side of the world.
Russia has used hundreds of drones to target Ukrainian cities and critical national infrastructure.
Missiles, each costing hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, fly fast, are hard to shoot down and carry a huge explosive payload.
But when supplies ran low, the Russians imported Shahid 136 UAVs from Iran. These UAVs are slow and vulnerable to small-arms fire but can be used as a swarm to overwhelm defences – and some get through.
The Ukrainians have also exploited UAVs to target Russian logistics hubs to great effect, most recently targeting a fuel storage facility on Crimea and another just east of the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia.
However, the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin on Tuesday night looked extremely suspect – the Kremlin is a fortress, with multiple layers of air and land defences, and a slow-speed UAV should never have made it through.
Regardless, the incident demonstrated the broad utility of drones, both as a weapon of destruction, and of deception.
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Why would Russia attack the Kremlin?
Smaller tactical drones have also proven invaluable in this conflict, particularly at the frontline.
As early as 1794, observation balloons were used as an aerial platform for gathering intelligence and spotting artillery, and in World War One, Royal Flying Corps aircraft took the opportunity to drop hand grenades on enemy trench positions.
More than a century later, small UAVs are also being used to fulfil the same role.
Surveillance technology has advanced apace – leveraging advances in the space and satellite markets – with sensors becoming lighter, more powerful and with reduced power requirements.
A sign in central Moscow says drones are banned in the area
Small drones are quiet, cheap, easily reconfigurable, and can provide live-streamed video of enemy positions directly to artillery – like playing a card game when you can see what card the other side has in their hand.
As Russia counters one capability, so the Ukrainians adapt and innovate.
Technology – and its rapid exploitation – has provided Ukraine with an asymmetric advantage in this conflict.
Although the United States has the lead in high-end UAVs, the global leader in the mass market is China, and when coupled with the rapid advances in AI capability, UAVs look set to become a mass-market, high volume, cost-effective military capability.
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Conventional warfighting wisdom is that bigger is better – high-end tanks, aircraft and ships will prevail. However, the Ukraine conflict has demonstrated the huge warfighting potential of UAVs, where quantity has a quality all of its own.
A year ago, the UAV market was focused on domestic parcel deliveries, driverless cars and multi-UAV light shows.
However, the Ukraine conflict has showcased the dramatic potential of UAVs, which have yet to leverage rapid advances in AI.
The stage is set for a new generation of military capability – the drone wars – enabling low-budget decisive military effect, with profound implications for our international, and domestic, security.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
Read more:
Pope Francis honoured by Joe Biden
Donald Trump’s inauguration 2.0
Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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