MLB Power Rankings: Are the Yankees back? And which NL power is on the rise?
Seven weeks into the season, we’re still seeing dominant performances from a number of American League teams, with seven of our top 10 teams residing in the AL.
That has not been the case in the National League, with preseason juggernauts like the Mets and Padres — teams that went big this offseason to put together playoff-caliber rosters — struggling. Both are currently below .500 and stumbling in their divisional races, though the Mets’ 8-7 walk-off win Wednesday night over the Rays could be the catalyst they needed to get going.
Two teams, however, have risen above the rest to vie for the title of best NL team. After stumbling out of the gate, the Dodgers have overtaken the Braves for best record in the league. Who will reign supreme?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB writers David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Joon Lee to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Record: 32-12
Previous ranking: 1
The Rays’ pitching factory is truly being put to the test, with Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Tyler Glasnow all on the injured list. As it currently stands, the Rays are taking things day by day with their rotation — they haven’t officially announced their starting pitchers for the next four days. But Tampa Bay will likely be relying on arms like Jalen Beeks, who has made two opener-type starts in the past week, allowing no runs in six innings. The Rays do have a cushion to figure things out, currently sitting 3.5 games ahead of the second-place Orioles. — Lee
Record: 28-16
Previous ranking: 3
The Dodgers snapped a six-game winning streak when they lost to the Twins on Tuesday, the end of a stretch that saw them win 17 of 21 games. Their offense is clicking, their starters have been effective and their bullpen has turned things around. And as if that wasn’t enough, Walker Buehler, who’s recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, told reporters he hopes to be a member of the rotation by the start of September. Manager Dave Roberts says that might be a little overly aggressive, but Buehler in any capacity — in the rotation or out of the bullpen — would be a major lift. For now, though, the Dodgers seem to have plenty. — Gonzalez
Record: 27-16
Previous ranking: 2
The Braves were cruising along until they lost four straight to the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the past week — with A.J. Minter receiving the “L” in two of the games, dropping his record to 2-5 with an 8.06 ERA. His overall stats aren’t as bad as the ERA indicates, with two home runs in 19 innings and a fine 24-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he has allowed a .500 average with runners in scoring position and a .340/.385/.511 slash line in “late and close” situations — thus the five losses.
“He’s a year removed from being one of the most effective relievers in baseball. This game’s cruel. It just keeps testing you,” manager Brian Snitker said. “He’s just going to have to keep getting after it and competing … and not be careful.” The Braves do have a cushion in the National League East, and given that there aren’t severe home run or control issues here, they’ll likely keep him in high-leverage situations for now. — Schoenfield
Record: 26-17
Previous ranking: 5
We’re not quite at Memorial Day — a common time to assess teams’ standings — but it’s looking more and more like Texas is in the race for the long haul. Playing the A’s over the course of four games doesn’t hurt either, as the Rangers took three of four over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean they’ll walk away with a division title. A wild-card spot still seems to be the most likely outcome, despite their current place atop the American League West.
In the absence of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi has emerged as the leader of the rotation. He had gone three straight starts without giving up a run, all lasting at least eight innings, before giving up three runs in seven innings in Wednesday night’s loss to the Braves. Shutting down the A’s is one thing, but when he did the same against the Yankees and Angels, it made people take notice. Yes, New York had some injuries in its lineup, but Eovaldi passed the eye test either way. His stuff has been electric. — Rogers
Record: 25-18
Previous ranking: 4
The concerns about Alek Manoah‘s start to the season are getting more and more real. Through nine starts, Manoah has a 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and -0.4 bWAR. He has given significantly more hard contact this season and has not been throwing as many strikes, a problem for a pitcher who does not rely on strikeouts to get batters out. If Toronto hopes to achieve its World Series aspirations, it will need more from a pitcher it expected to lead the rotation. The team has gotten strong performances from Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt, which has helped lessen the impact of Manoah’s struggles. — Lee
Record: 28-15
Previous ranking: 7
Baltimore continues to dazzle in the early going of the season. Its most impressive pitcher hasn’t been a starter — rather, it’s rookie reliever Yennier Cano, who has 25 strikeouts with no runs or walks in 21⅔ innings pitched. The Orioles’ bullpen duo of Cano and established reliever Felix Bautista looks like one of the most dynamic late-inning combos across the game. Combine that with Adley Rutschman putting together a season that could vault him in the MVP conversation and it’s hard to imagine this Baltimore team fading into irrelevance. — Lee
Record: 25-20
Previous ranking: 9
Yankees fans are inching away from the panic button after the team put together a strong week against the lowly Athletics, a series split against the Rays and high-scoring outputs against the Blue Jays (though, New York was shut out by Toronto on Wednesday). In the past week, Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo have carried the offense, hitting five and three homers, respectively. Meanwhile, rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe‘s statistics continue to creep up after a slow start — he has hit three homers in the past week. — Lee
Record: 24-19
Previous ranking: 6
Jose Altuve has been on a rehab assignment in the minors and his return from a thumb injury is approaching. Once Altuve resumes his place as the Astros’ everyday second baseman and leadoff hitter, the question then becomes: What does manager Dusty Baker do about Mauricio Dubon? It’s a good problem to have, since Dubon has sparkled as Altuve’s replacement, with a league-average bat (albeit one fueled by a sky-high BABIP) supported by terrific defense and production on the basepaths. Dubon has been particularly lethal against lefties, and you wonder if he might usurp some of Jake Meyers’ playing time in center field when a southpaw is on the mound. Dubon has started 79 games in center over the past three years but has yet to appear at the position in 2023. — Doolittle
Record: 24-20
Previous ranking: 12
Wrist injuries have hampered the progress of Alex Kirilloff over the past couple of seasons. While it’s still early, now that he’s healthy, he has been producing like the All-Star in the making that he was once ordained to be. After getting his feet wet with a few outings at Class A, Kirilloff advanced to Triple-A St. Paul, where he mashed a .316/.435/.605 line over 10 games. That propelled him back to the big league roster, and 10 games after that promotion, he put up pretty much the same line: .313/.450/.563.
Manager Rocco Baldelli is still limiting Kirilloff’s exposure to lefties, and as long as that’s the case, we can’t declare him a finished product. But if he keeps mashing righties the way that he has, Baldelli might be forced to expand his role. It might be happening already: Kirilloff was in the lineup May 16 at Dodger Stadium when the Twins were going up against future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. — Doolittle
Record: 24-19
Previous ranking: 11
Milwaukee has quietly returned to the top of the NL Central after a series sweep of the Royals over the weekend. However, the Brewers’ 18-1 drubbing at the hands of the Cardinals on Monday was a reminder that nothing comes easy in the mediocre NL Central, though they did follow that up with a solid win over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Milwaukee’s top hitter (Rowdy Tellez) ranks just 39th in the majors in OPS while its top pitcher (Corbin Burnes) ranks 37th in ERA, but manager Craig Counsell’s group is doing what it always does — hanging around the top of the division. The Rays and Astros will be a big test over the next week. — Rogers
Record: 25-19
Previous ranking: 14
Brandon Pfaadt, the D-backs’ highly touted pitching prospect, was charged with 13 runs in 9⅔ innings during his first two starts but bounced back Sunday, pitching five innings of one-run ball against the Giants. D-backs manager Torey Lovullo had a talk with Pfaadt in the wake of those first two outings, essentially telling him he was capable of more and that something needed to be figured out. “He took that as a personal challenge,” Lovullo said.
Pfaadt benefited from getting back some of the late life on his fastball, heeding the advice of assistant pitching coach Barry Enright to get his fingers on top of the baseball and throw it more downhill, according to MLB.com. The D-backs need someone to step up in their rotation beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and perhaps Pfaadt, 24, can be that guy. — Gonzalez
Record: 24-20
Previous ranking: 10
Boston fell back down to earth after rattling off an eight-game winning streak, dropping six of eight against the Phillies, Braves, Cardinals and Mariners. The Red Sox face questions about who will fill out their rotation following the return of James Paxton from the IL. After Wednesday’s victory over the Mariners, manager Alex Cora announced his decision to send a floundering Nick Pivetta to the bullpen, where he’ll work as a multi-inning reliever, while others like Corey Kluber have also struggled mightily this season. If Boston hopes to compete in the division, it will need more from its rotation. Every pitcher with at least three starts has an ERA above 4.45.— Lee
Record: 21-22
Previous ranking: 16
George Kirby is pitching his way into the All-Star discussion — and it would be in front of home fans, with the All-Star Game in Seattle this summer. After allowing one hit in 6⅔ innings to beat the Red Sox on Monday, he ran his record to 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA.
Following an impressive rookie season in which he walked just 22 batters in 130 innings, Kirby continues to pound the strike zone like few starters have ever done. He has walked just four batters in 51⅓ innings — at 0.7 walks per nine, that’s a better rate than Greg Maddux ever had (and would rank eighth best since 1901). His strikeout rate isn’t anything special, but he’s not allowing a ton of hard contact, with just two home runs and a hard-hit rate that ranks in the 79th percentile. It’s a unique profile in today’s game, but he’s proving that the old adage of “get ahead of the batter” is still an effective way to pitch. — Schoenfield
Record: 20-24
Previous ranking: 8
The perception from the outside was that the NL West had flipped. The Padres defeated the Dodgers in last year’s NL Division Series, then signed Xander Bogaerts — leading up to Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return — while the Dodgers mainly stood pat. But the Padres’ regular-season struggles against the Dodgers continue. They lost a combined five of six games to their bitter rivals on back-to-back weekends and have now dropped 11 consecutive regular-season series against them dating to 2021. When this week began, the Padres’ vaunted offense was amazingly batting just .198 with runners in scoring position, dead last in the majors. — Gonzalez
Record: 22-22
Previous ranking: 15
Shohei Ohtani is navigating through what is probably the worst pitching slump of his major league career, posting a 6.12 ERA over his past four starts. Ohtani allowed five runs in the first five innings in Baltimore on Monday — but he still recorded 21 outs, unleashed a 456-foot home run, fell just shy of the cycle for the second time in less than three weeks and wound up as the winning pitcher. In typical Ohtani fashion, he managed to attain greatness amid struggle. He’s helping to keep the Angels afloat within a hypercompetitive AL West. — Gonzalez
Record: 20-23
Previous ranking: 17
Ranger Suarez finally returned to make his first start since getting injured in the World Baseball Classic, and while he allowed seven hits and three runs in four innings, it was in Colorado and he gave up a couple of cheap ones (and the Phillies won anyway).
Meanwhile, the Phillies demoted Bailey Falter, which is not a surprise given he’s 0-7 in eight starts with a 5.13 ERA. It’s just hard for a lefty with a low strikeout rate to survive in today’s game, and Falter has allowed a .301 average and .825 OPS. Still, he’ll probably be back at some point, which leads us to this factoid: The record for most losses in a season without a win in Phillies history belongs to Russ Miller, who went 0-12 in 1928. You might remember Brad Lidge went 0-8 in 2009 as the closer — despite the Phillies advancing to the World Series (where he would lose a game, although he did get a win in the NLCS). — Schoenfield
Record: 21-23
Previous ranking: 13
Is it time to start panicking? Maybe not, after the Mets’ walk-off win over the Rays on Wednesday night, but New York still went a disastrous 4-9 in a stretch against the Tigers, Rockies, Reds and Nationals — probably the easiest four-series stretch it’ll have all season. Then on Tuesday against the Rays, Justin Verlander made his first home start for the Mets and allowed six runs and eight hits in five innings, serving up two home runs to Isaac Paredes, one with two runners on and one with a runner on. Verlander is hardly the biggest problem, as David Peterson got shelled again Sunday to fall to 1-5 with an 8.08 ERA and was optioned to Triple-A. Carlos Carrasco looks ready to return from the IL and take Peterson’s place in the rotation. — Schoenfield
Record: 19-23
Previous ranking: 20
The Guardians’ quest to generate some semblance of a contention-worthy offense is ongoing. They did get some good news on that front, though. Josh Naylor remarkably hit eighth-inning, go-ahead homers in three straight games over the weekend against the Angels, and he did so with nary a reprise of the baby-rocking celebration he unleashed on us all during last season’s playoffs. Cleveland’s offensive issues have been widespread, but Naylor has certainly been a part of the problem, with an OPS+ of just 84 despite the recent surge. Naylor and Josh Bell, who has struggled just as much, have occupied the 4- and 5-spots in the batting order for most of the season. The Guardians rank in the bottom third of the majors in OPS at those slots. — Doolittle
Record: 23-20
Previous ranking: 18
There’s a reason the Pirates were never that highly rated in our power rankings, as their place in the standings was bound to take a hit. It’s just hard to see their pitching staff, outside of Mitch Keller, performing at a high level over 162 games. Having said all that, Keller is a current Cy Young candidate who might be in the midst of a magical season. He followed up a complete-game shutout over the Rockies with a seven-inning, 13-strikeout scoreless performance over the vaunted Orioles. It was one of the better pitching performances of the season. Keller’s fastball has been electric, which makes his cutter just as dangerous. He’s a fun watch on the mound. — Rogers
Record: 18-26
Previous ranking: 23
The long-awaited turnaround for St. Louis has begun. Was the very public benching of Willson Contreras the catalyst? Maybe. Maybe not. But it certainly got the attention of the whole team, as the Cardinals had to answer for their own issues as they came to Contreras’ defense.
Slowly but surely the rotation is performing better — a notion that probably has little to do with Contreras. Miles Mikolas has found some mojo after a brutal start to his season. He has given up five runs in his past 16 innings in three May starts. With a potent offense behind him — Nolan Arenado is on fire — that kind of production from St. Louis’ pitching might be all the team needs to get back in the race. The Cardinals are not completely back, but their sweep of the Red Sox last week in Boston was as good a sign as any that they’re headed in the right direction. — Rogers
Record: 19-24
Previous ranking: 19
A brutal three-city road trip combined with key injuries has led to a poor May for Chicago. The Cubs are a decent team, but they have holes in every part of their game right now. One bright spot is Christopher Morel. He hit three 400-plus-foot home runs in the span of four days last week. One went for 461 feet, one of the longest in baseball this season. Teams should begin to pitch him inside as his power comes from extension. And fans have a right to question why he didn’t make the team out of spring training after he hit 16 home runs in a limited time span last season. — Rogers
Record: 22-21
Previous ranking: 21
The Marlins finally lost a one-run game on Saturday, when the Reds scored three runs in the eighth to take a 6-4 lead. Miami rallied with a run in the bottom of the ninth and had the bases loaded with two outs, but Alexis Diaz fanned Yuli Gurriel to close out the game. But the Marlins improved to 13-1 in one-run games on Tuesday (and then 14-1 on Wednesday) with a dramatic three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Nationals 5-4. Garrett Cooper doubled with two outs, Luis Arraez singled him home and then Jorge Soler hit a walk-off home run.
The other big news was the MLB debut for 20-year-old right-hander Eury Perez, regarded by many as the top pitching prospect in the game. He allowed two runs in 4⅔ innings against the Reds with seven K’s, although those two runs were both homers. He averaged 97 mph with his fastball and got three strikeouts apiece with his slider and curveball. With 16 swinging strikes in just 18 pitches, his stuff was as good as advertised and he looks ready to contribute. — Schoenfield
Record: 20-23
Previous ranking: 22
Perhaps Michael Conforto is finally beginning to heat up. After a dreadful first six weeks of the season, Conforto has accumulated 10 hits — including three home runs — over his past 24 at-bats, adding 117 points of OPS in the process. The All-Star outfielder spent all of last season recovering from shoulder surgery. A slow start was to be expected. But if Conforto can get back to his production from as recently as 2020, it will serve as a major boost for a lineup that is also experiencing a resurgence from center fielder Mike Yastrzemski. — Gonzalez
Record: 19-24
Previous ranking: 25
Cincinnati is very quietly hanging around the edges of the NL Central race. Of course, every team in the division has a chance right now, as no one is running away with it. But considering their place in their rebuilding cycle, the Reds might be the most surprising team in the division. They won series against the Mets and Marlins over the past week — with the latter coming on the road. Perhaps it will all crater, though, as Cincinnati ranks in the bottom third in hitting and pitching — and the Reds are under .500 after all. But, catching the Cubs for third place earlier this week is a nice May feather in their baseball cap. — Rogers
Record: 19-22
Previous ranking: 24
Detroit’s run prevention has continued to trend in the right direction. Its park-adjusted runs allowed per game reached league average over the past month, a remarkable turnaround from the early weeks of the season. Through April 15, the Tigers were on pace to give up an unsightly 1,007 runs. Say what you will about early-season paces, but that’s not good. Detroit was giving up 6⅔ runs per game at that point.
Since then, the Tigers have given up just 3.6 runs per game and are on pace to allow 741 runs on the season through Tuesday. And while that is indeed just average once you adjust for Comerica Park, being average in something as a member of the AL Central is good enough to flirt with second place and be in a position where one short winning streak can vault you into the division lead. — Doolittle
Record: 18-25
Previous ranking: 28
The Nationals have played .500 baseball since their 4-11 start and CJ Abrams continues to show improvement at the plate. He’s up to four home runs after homering twice in the Mets series, has his OPS just below .700 and, perhaps most surprisingly of all, his hard-hit rate sits in the 45th percentile after he showed little pop as a rookie. The chase rate is still way too high at 41.4% and his defense at shortstop also remains a work in progress as he has made eight errors and ranks at the bottom of Statcast’s outs above average metric. Abrams is still just 22 and played just 114 games in the minors, so he’s a young and inexperienced player whose career could still go in any number of directions. — Schoenfield
Record: 19-25
Previous ranking: 27
The Rockies suffered a close loss to the Reds on Tuesday, but Chase Anderson, claimed off waivers to make that start, allowed only two baserunners over the course of five scoreless innings. The Rockies’ rotation is exceedingly short-handed at the moment, with German Marquez (Tommy John surgery), Ryan Feltner (skull fracture suffered on a comebacker) and Antonio Senzatela (ulnar collateral ligament sprain) all either out for the year or facing lengthy absences. The Rockies are enjoying a much better month of May, in all phases, but they’ll need more performances like Anderson’s if they hope to remain relevant. — Gonzalez
Record: 16-28
Previous ranking: 26
The White Sox are getting healthier, but it certainly has not been a linear process. Jake Burger returned to the lineup from an oblique strain and has seemingly picked up his power stroke where he left it. Yoan Moncada is back in the fold as well after mostly recovering from back trouble that kept him out of the lineup for over a month. Eloy Jimenez is still recovering from an appendectomy but is at least back with the team. Reliever Garrett Crochet rejoined the big league roster after completing the long road back from Tommy John surgery, and Liam Hendriks could be back in the big league bullpen any day now.
On the other hand, starting second baseman Elvis Andrus is now on the shelf with an oblique injury. The White Sox have not been whole all season and it might be a while before we see the full version of their roster. If Chicago doesn’t start playing better with some consistency, there might not be much left to play for by the time everyone is back, even in baseball’s worst division. — Doolittle
Record: 14-31
Previous ranking: 29
Salvador Perez‘s recent surge at the plate has lifted all of his numbers to better-than-career-norm levels. He very much looks like an experienced backstop with plenty of productive years left ahead of him, as he turned 33 last week, and is still remarkable to watch at the plate. He’ll swing at almost anything, with a chase rate that ranks in the last percentile of the majors. But his exit velocities are outstanding and he’s in the 87th percentile in hard-hit rate. This season, somehow, he has even cut down on strikeouts despite a swing percentage that is the highest in baseball. In more ways than one, Perez remains one of a kind. — Doolittle
Record: 10-35
Previous ranking: 30
Most of the news around the Athletics centers around their looming move to Las Vegas, but don’t discount the performance by left fielder and designated hitter Brent Rooker. He has put together a strong start to the season, hitting .295/.498/.605 with 11 homers through 38 games this season, placing him among the 15 most valuable position players in the game by Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR). This comes, though, as the A’s came to a binding agreement for $1.5 billion to develop a potential stadium on the Las Vegas Strip at the site of the Tropicana Hotel. Whether Rooker or anyone on this current roster is on that team is a whole other question. — Lee
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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