Russia, AI, climate change – The West can overcome the big threats if we pull ourselves together | Adam Boulton
What are the big threats to our way of life?
This question was a lurking preoccupation at the London Defence Conference this week, attended by the prime minister and the chief of defence staff along with academics and politicians from across the Western world.
The immediate crisis is Ukraine, of course.
There was general consensus that victory is essential not just for Ukraine but also for the continued security of its allies. In the margins of the conference George Robertson, former NATO secretary general and UK defence secretary, warned that the rules-based order will be over unless Russia’s illegal and violent invasion is repelled.
Autocrats, in Africa, Latin America and elsewhere will feel free to grab territory and rewrite national borders if Putin gets away with invading a sovereign neighbour.
The commander of the UK’s armed forces, CDS Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, insisted that NATO must do everything it can to support Ukraine’s forces, short of joining the fight. The UK is aiming to train over 20,000 Ukrainian troops this year. He argued that Western politicians should “not be afraid of escalation”.
Time is pressing. Many feared that backing for Ukraine would quickly fracture should Donald Trump, or another Trumpist Republican, be elected to the US presidency in November 2024. Although the retired US Army general Ben Hodges was confident that the bipartisan support by Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress would survive even that.
Ukraine is rewriting the global balance of power.
Most significantly NATO has been strengthened by formerly neutral Finland and Sweden seeking to join. Against that, Russia and China have drawn closer together, while rising “middle” powers in India, Africa, and Latin America have deliberately refused to take sides, effectively indulging Putin’s ambitions.
There’s broad agreement in the West that Russian can’t be allowed to win the war
Beyond the much desired and essential liberation of Ukraine as a free nation state, what challenges lie ahead? I asked an all-female panel of experts to compile a “future risks” register of the threats they see to our security.
Their suggestions ranged far and wide: conflicts with Russia and/or China over Taiwan and the Arctic; Iran; nuclear weapons; Chinese expansionism, and conversely an economic slowdown in China; fragmentation or disruption of global supply chains and communications networks; climate change; competition for hydrocarbon energy sources and the rare earth metals essential for both digital communications and renewable energy generation; societal breakdown due to rising economic pressures.
In spite of the immense damage being wrought by Russia, there was a surprising consensus that Putin’s regime has miscalculated and that Russia is now effectively a dependency of China. Russia’s rebuff in Ukraine has removed any active threat of China invading Taiwan, for all of President Xi’s declared intention to resolve the matter this generation.
Russia’s power lies in its role as an oil and gas supplier. It has now joined Saudi Arabia in OPEC+ and China has brokered a cautious reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, another hydrocarbon producer. As Europe weans itself off Russian energy, these suppliers are finding new customers and building their influence in other parts of the world.
Helen Thompson, professor of political science at Cambridge University, raised the possibility that a new OPEC-style cartel could emerge of countries with rare earth metals which are vital for new technology. “Even if we succeed in decarbonising,” she said, the amount of foreign metal dependency we will have will be huge.”
At the same time, she pointed out that the best efforts of Saudi Arabia and its allies failed to stop the US becoming the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas. The world is becoming more competitive and multi-polar, but the US is likely to remain dominant thanks to its natural resources, its lead in technology and the strength of its economy.
As China’s population ages, its economy is growing more slowly. Western leaders need to be vigilant as China seeks to bend existing global institutions such as the UN to its own advantage but, unlike Russia, according to Professor Thomson, China does wish to smash the rules-based world order established after the Second World War.
Experts have warned about China’s ambitions but say any active threat to Taiwan has gone
Since the launch of ChatGPT, political leaders have been concerned about the “existential” threat posed by artificial intelligence.
Sam Altman, the chief executive of Open AI – which developed Chat GPT, was summoned to give evidence before the US Congress. This week he attended a meeting with Rishi Sunak, along with other tech bosses, to discuss how to moderate AI and prevent a catastrophe.
So far cooperation seems to be working, as tech innovators, including Elon Musk, voice their concerns to law makers.
Meanwhile, Nobel Peace winner Henry Kissinger has been focussing on the potential consequences of AI. Mr Kissinger, who was President Nixon’s secretary of state in the 1970s, is regarded by many as a foreign policy guru.
In a series of interviews to mark his 100th birthday this weekend, he has warned: “The speed with which artificial intelligence acts will make it problematical in crisis situations… I am now trying to do what I did with respect to nuclear weapons, to call attention to the importance of the impact of this evolution…It’s going to be different. Because in the previous arms races, you could develop plausible theories about how you might prevail. It’s a totally new problem intellectually…”
His comment helps to explain why AI was not discussed as a major risk by my panel. AI and quantum computers are likely to be extraordinarily powerful tools but they will ultimately be regulated and directed by human beings. They have no independent agency. It is up to us to get it right.
There are concerns over AI but it will ultimately be regulated and directed by humans
With a self-deprecating “I would say this wouldn’t I?”, Polly Scully argued that data processing was potentially an asset which would could make the lives of citizens better through better analysis and forewarning of threats.
Her background was as a British civil servant working on crisis amelioration. She now works for Palantir, the Big Data analytics company co-founded by Peter Thiel, a major Silicon Valley investor.
The panellists – also including China expert Francesca Ghiretti and Mafrid Brout Hammer of the University of Oslo – agreed that a greater threat was posed by the disruption of communication and electricity supplies, possibly by malign cutting of under-sea cables than by the application of technology.
The discussions of risks at the London Defence Conference left me more optimistic.
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On the immediate crisis in Ukraine, Ukraine has not yet won and much sacrifice will be needed for years to come. But CDS Radakin said that Western forces have “nothing to learn from the way Russia is fighting”, but they are adapting and modernising rapidly themselves because of their experiences in the conflict.
He does not believe there is an incentive for Putin to deploy nuclear weapons because they would serve no military purpose and because they would provoke an overwhelming response from NATO.
Over the horizon there are certainly major challenges and threats. Globally we are not moving fast enough on climate change. Countries with different ideologies from the “Western” democratic nations are gaining strength. Western politically institutions have taken a kicking recently thanks to poor and self-indulgent leadership.
Much work is required to win back hearts and minds around the world. But, if we pull ourselves together, “We” in the Western democracies still have the material, technological and human resources to overcome those risks which we can see ahead.
Thousands who fled a key frontline city in Sudan’s war as it fell to paramilitaries were targeted in killing fields around it by the group, after the military’s top brass secured their own safe passage.
Warning: Some readers may find content in this article distressing.
More than 60,000 people are still missing and humanitarians fear that Al Fashir’s remaining 200,000 residents are being held hostage by Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters.
In our investigation with Sudan War Monitor and Lighthouse Reports, we can reveal the harrowing fate of civilians and soldiers who fled the city in the hours after senior commanders and officers left the infantry division.
Some 70,000 people have escaped Al Fashir since it was captured on 26 October, according to the DTM matrix of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), but fewer than 10,000 people are accounted for in the nearest safe displacement zones.
In an effort to track down the missing, we analysed dozens of videos and followed crowds of civilians on their way out.
In this first video, we see a group, and two men – the first with a yellow hoodie and black jacket walking beside a dirt berm along with women and children.
An image from the first video
In a later video, we see a crowd of captives that includes the two men – in the same yellow hoodie and red turban.
A video of men sitting on the ground under RSF armed guard shows the women walking through freely, showing they had been separated.
An image from the second video
In another video, we see the man in a red turban in a queue of men who start to run as RSF fighters chase and beat them.
An image from the third video
A source on the ground told us that this single group had around 2,000 captives and only 200 of them arrived at the nearest displacement shelter in Tawila, around 45 miles from Al Fashir.
We geolocated one of the videos of the group walking approximately 5km (three miles) from the nearby town of Geurnei.
We geolocated one of the videos of the group walking three miles from the nearby town of Geurnei. Pic: Copernicus
There, hundreds were rounded up in school buildings.
‘They would execute people in front of us’
The families of doctors held there told Sky News the RSF asked them to pay ransoms to secure their release.
A man who survived captivity in Geurnei with his wife told us he was held with around 300-400 families after being robbed and harassed on his way out of Al Fashir.
“We got to the school and they caught up with us. They starting targeting people – elderly and young – and took them to be detained,” said Abdelhamid.
“They would select people and execute them in front of us and then say – ‘bury your brother’ – and we would cover them with soil. I saw them kill 18 people with my own eyes and then people had to bury them with their bare hands.”
Satellite images from 30 October show mounds of dirt that appear to be new graves added to an existing cemetery, near school buildings in Geurnei.
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Tens of thousands killed in two days in Sudan city, analysts believe
Others were executed in the fields outside of Al Fashir.
In a video shared on social media, a vehicle is shown pursuing civilians in the countryside.
The driver films as two fighters, one in an RSF patch, stop an unarmed man.
One asks what the man is carrying, and shoots him at point-blank range.
The car continues forward, accelerating towards and narrowly avoiding two unarmed men.
He asks one man if he is carrying anything and says he is “acting as if you are Arab”.
After the driver says “kill them all”, the camera turns back to the man, who appears to have been shot.
The driver then urges those with him to hurry to catch up with those ahead.
This brutality comes after the RSF encircled, starved and shelled Al Fashir for 18 months in their battle with the military for the last regional capital in Darfur under state control.
Several high-level sources told us that top state commanders, officers and political leaders made arrangements for their own safe passage in over 100 vehicles, including some armoured cars, before the 6th infantry division was captured by the RSF in the morning hours of 26 October.
The battle for Al Fashir – and Sudan
Earlier this year, Al Fashir was being suffocated to death by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as they pushed to claim full control of the Darfur region as a base for their parallel government, after the military recaptured the capital Khartoum and other key sites in central Sudan.
On Monday, famine conditions were confirmed in Al Fashir and Kadugli, another besieged city in Sudan’s south, by the UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
Inside Al Fashir, thousands were bombarded by almost daily shelling from surrounding RSF troops.
The RSF physically reinforced their siege with a berm – a raised earth mound. First spotted by Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, the berm is visible from space.
The Sudan war started in April 2023, when long-simmering tensions between the Sudanese army and the RSF broke out in Khartoum.
The US special envoy to Sudan estimates that 150,000 have been killed, but the exact figure is unknown. Close to 12 million people have been displaced.
After 18 months of surviving forced starvation and shelling, the regional capital and symbolic battleground of Al Fashir fell to the RSF at the end of October.
What does the head of the SAF say?
The commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) Abdel Fattah Al Burhan has said the withdrawal was to spare the city from further destruction, indiscriminate shelling and drone attacks.
In response to our findings, he told Sky News: “The decision to withdraw was unanimous among the armed forces, regular forces, and the joint security committee.
“The withdrawal began with an attack by drones on forces blocking one of the crossings, destroying their positions.
“Later, the forces fought until they broke through the barrier and moved to a location outside the city.
“During the withdrawal, the forces lost more than 300 martyrs, and most of their vehicles were destroyed. They remain besieged.
“They did not leave soldiers behind. Those who remained were tasked with securing the withdrawal, and they performed their duty as required.”
But instead of a co-ordinated withdrawal, a soldier left behind describes an abandoned command.
‘They completely abandoned us’
“The division commander had left the garrison. They completely abandoned us and we were suddenly surrounded 26 to 1 in the morning hours. Suddenly, everything collapsed on us in the defence. We asked what was going on and were told everyone fled,” he said.
“Shortly after, bombs started falling on us. Brigadier General Adam, the artillery commander, refused to withdraw, saying that the division commander had already withdrawn without informing him of the order. The brigadier general, six colonels, and a naval colonel were also captured.”
Testimony from a civilian who fled that morning paints a picture of chaos.
He said: “There was no co-ordination over withdrawal, and it seemed to be a surprise to the remaining fighters on the frontline. Some were leaving the city and others were fighting battles with the RSF.”
As the RSF entered Al Fashir, he told us civilians were massacred.
“The streets were covered in bodies. I saw it for myself. The RSF came into the city and butchered everyone they found. They did not discern between a child, a civilian or the elderly – they executed everyone, a full genocide.”
High-resolution satellite imagery captured by Vantor shows burnt vehicles grouped together south of the berm the RSF built to besiege Al Fashir.
A video we located at the site shows dozens of bodies, in fatigues and civilian clothing, lying lifeless on the ground by burning cars.
Mounting concern over 200,000 people
Fears are mounting over the fate of around 200,000 people left in Al Fashir.
A top RSF commander with knowledge of the operations in the city told us that at least 7,000 people have been killed in Al Fashir in the first five days of capture.
He said RSF fighters systemically targeted civilians from non-Arab tribes and killed groups of 300 to 400 people in some areas. Civilian sources close to the RSF corroborated his death toll, which we cannot independently verify on the ground.
Al Fashir is in a complete telecommunications blackout.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) in Sudan has shared in a post on X that their “Humanitarian partners in Sudan are being blocked from reaching A Fashir, North Darfur.
“Civilians are trapped inside, their condition unknown. Aid workers are ready to deliver life-saving support. Access needs to be granted now, in line with international humanitarian law.”
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The RSF has circulated videos on its social media channels showing trucks delivering aid to Al Fashir’s emaciated civilians.
This comes after months of volunteers and aid workers being killed by RSF fighters while trying to bring in relief during their 18-month siege of enforced starvation and relentless shelling.
What does the RSF say?
The spokesperson for the RSF’s political administration TASIS, Dr Alaa Nugud, told Sky News that the RSF there is a big fake media campaign prepared for the “Al Fashir liberation” and denounced the death toll of at least 7,000, shared by one of their top commanders, as “totally rubbish”.
In response to our report, he said: “Never happened that TASIS forces or any of its constituents killed civilians based on ethnic background, on the other hand this is what was done by SAF and the Muslim brotherhood National Congress Party doctrine during their 39 years of rule.
“SAF’s military intelligence was igniting these ethnic clashes throughout years they used religion to flame war in south Sudan and used racism and ethnicity to ignite war in Darfur.”
He added that “RSF and TASIS forces evacuated more than 800,000 civilians outside Al Fashir”.
“Could they not provide or grant safe passage to civilians? The reality is that the insurance of the continuation of the war and spoiling of all peace platforms… the continuation of this war is the main cause of all atrocities.
“The atrocities are consequences of this war, not the cause of the war. So to stop all these atrocities we have to stop the war and this is not there in SAF agenda.”
The RSF is accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity across Sudan since the war started in April 2023.
The Biden administration accused the RSF of committing genocide in Darfur in 2024, two decades after the group was first accused of genocide in the region as the Janjaweed.
Our previous reporting on Sky News has supported allegations that the UAE militarily supports the RSF, though the country officially denies it.
Additional reporting by Mohamed Zakarea, Sam Doak, Annoa Abekah-Mensah, Aziz Al Nour, Julia Steers, Jack Sapoch, and Klaas van Dijken.
This story was a joint Sky News data and forensics investigation with Sudan War Monitor and Lighthouse Reports.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Israel’s former top military lawyer has been arrested after admitting leaking a video of soldiers allegedly abusing a Palestinian prisoner.
The growing scandal comes as Israel handed over the bodies of 45 Palestinians, according to health officials in Gaza.
An Israeli official said ex-military advocate Major General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi was taken into custody overnight on Sunday – just a few days after resigning from her post, reported the Associated Press news agency.
She was arrested when a search was carried out along the Tel Aviv beach after concerns for her safety were raised by her family, reported Israel’s Channel 12.
Former chief military prosecutor Colonel Matan Solomesh was also arrested overnight as part of the investigation into the leaked video, reported Israel’s Army Radio.
The leaked footage was aired last year purporting to show an incident involving soldiers and a Palestinian prisoner at the Sde Teiman detention facility in southern Israel.
Hamas said the work to return the bodies of Israeli hostages has been complicated by the devastation in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
The developments came as the bodies of the Palestinians were received at Nasser Hospital, in Gaza, on Monday morning, a Gaza health ministry spokesperson told the Associated Press.
The release of the bodies came a day after Israel said Hamas had handed over the remains of three Israeli troops taken hostage on 7 October 2023.
Israel said the troops were killed in the attack on southern Israel before their bodies were dragged by militants back to Gaza.
A Hamas statement said the remains were found on Sunday in a tunnel in southern Gaza.
The Red Cross drove the remains of three more hostages across Gaza to the Israeli army at the weekend. Pic: AP
The three troops have been identified as Captain Omer Neutra, an American-Israeli, Staff Sergeant Oz Daniel and Colonel Assaf Hamami, according to the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Since the ceasefire started on 10 October, Palestinian militants have released the remains of 20 hostages, with eight now remaining in Gaza.
Hamas has released one or two bodies every few days.
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Can ceasefire hold despite Israel’s ‘ferocious’ attacks?
Israel has demanded faster progress and, in some cases, has said the remains were not those of any hostage.
Hamas has said the work to return the bodies has been complicated by the widespread devastation in Gaza.
Israel has been releasing the remains of 15 Palestinians for each hostage returned.
Health officials in Gaza have struggled to identify bodies without access to DNA kits.
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Only 75 of the 225 Palestinian bodies returned since the ceasefire began have been identified, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
About 1,200 people were killed and 251 kidnapped in the Hamas terror attack that sparked the war two years ago.
Officials in Hamas-run Gaza say more than 68,600 Palestinians have died.
The only survivor of the Air India crash has told Sky News he has been “broken down” by the trauma.
Air India Flight 171 crashed into a building, killing 241 people on board, just after take-off in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on 12 June, with Briton Viswashkumar Ramesh the only passenger who walked away from the wreckage.
In an interview with Sophy Ridge on the new Mornings with Ridge and Frost programme, Mr Ramesh faltered, stumbled and regularly lapsed into long silence as he tried to recall the day.
Warning: This article contains details some may find distressing
Mr Ramesh, 40, was in the now-fabled seat 11a, which was located next to an emergency door that he managed to climb out of after the Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed.
Smoke rises from the wreckage. Pic: Reuters
His younger brother, Ajaykumar, seated in a different row on the plane, could not escape.
Months on, Mr Ramesh wanted to share the impact of that day in an attempt to try to regain control of his life – and to pressure Air India into addressing the catastrophic effect of the crash on him and his family.
But it is clearly traumatic to talk about.
“It’s very painful talking about the plane,” he says softly.
Asked by Ridge if he can speak about what happened on board, he falls silent.
Just after the crash, from his hospital bed, Mr Ramesh told cable news channel DD India “there were bodies all around me” when he stood up after the crash. A further 19 people had been killed on the ground.
In hospital, he was still pleading for help in finding his brother.
“How is your life now?” Ridge asks.
He says the crash has left him feeling “very broke down”, adding it’s much the same for the rest of his family.
He does not leave the house, he says, instead sitting alone in his bedroom, doing “nothing”.
“I just think about my brother,” he adds. “For me, he was everything.”
He says he still cannot believe Ajaykumar is dead – but that’s as much as he can bring himself to say about him.
Ridge acknowledges the contrast between Mr Ramesh’s own survival – “a miracle” – and the “nightmare” of losing his brother.
It echoes the sentiment of Mr Ramesh’s other brother, Nayankumar, who told Sky News in June: “I’ve got no words to describe it. It’s a miracle that he [Viswashkumar] survived – but what about the other miracle for my other brother?”
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Nayankumar speaking to Sky News in June
Mr Ramesh says he is still suffering physical discomfort too, dealing with knee, shoulder and back pain, along with burns to his left arm. His wife, he says, has to help him shower.
He and his wife live in Leicester with their four-year-old son, Divang.
“I have a four-year-old, so I know what four-year-olds are like,” Ridge says. “They’re a handful but they can bring a lot joy as well. How has he been since the tragedy happened?”
Mr Ramesh says Divang is “okay” but, with his eyes lowered, adds: “I’m not talking properly with my son.”
“Does he come to your room?” Ridge asks.
He shakes his head.
Mr Ramesh was joined by Leicester community leader Sanjiv Patel and his adviser and spokesperson Radd Seiger for support as he spoke to Ridge.
“Sophy… this is an important question that you’re asking,” says Mr Seiger.
“You’re a parent, I’m a parent, and we all know that being a parent is a privilege, isn’t it? But it takes a lot of energy… you need to be in a good place to be a good parent, to have that from the moment they wake up to the moment they go to bed.
“You need to be in a good place and we can all see… he’s [Mr Ramesh] been robbed of that and I think it’s just a chore for him to just get through the day, let alone be a husband, be a father.”
What’s next for the crash’s sole survivor?
Mr Seiger and Mr Patel say the list of what he needs to get his life back on track is “endless” but that it starts with “practical things” such as financial support.
Mr Ramesh and Ajaykumar used “all their savings” to set up a fishing business in India, which saw them frequently flying there together from the UK.
The business has stopped running since the crash, meaning Mr Ramesh’s extended family in both the UK and India has no income, according to Mr Patel.
For them, it amounts to an “existential threat”, he adds.
Police officer standing in front of Air India aircraft wreckage after crash near Ahmedabad airport. Pic: Reuters
They say Air India has offered Mr Ramesh a flat interim payment of £21,500 – a one-off sum given to a claimant in advance of reaching the end of a personal injury claim.
A spokesperson for Tata Group, Air India’s parent company, told Sky News that Mr Ramesh had accepted the payment and that it had been transferred to him.
But Mr Seiger says the sum “doesn’t even touch the sides” when it comes to everything Mr Ramesh needs while he is unable to work or leave his home – from help with transporting his son to school, to food, to medical and psychiatric support.
They are petitioning for more than just cash payments, which they suggest reduces Mr Ramesh to “a number on a spreadsheet”.
Rather, they want Air India’s chief executive Campbell Wilson to meet with him, his family and the families of other victims in the crash, to hear about their struggles and “talk as humans”.
Mr Patel said: “Meet the people. Understand what they’re going through. Relying on bureaucratic machinery to deal with real lives [of people] who are going through real trauma – the pain of that, the financial consequences – that is the day-to-day – how lives have been destroyed, and not just the immediate family, but extended families too.”
A fire officer stands next to the crashed aircraft. Pic: Reuters
A spokesperson for Air India told Sky News: “We are deeply conscious of our responsibility to provide Mr Ramesh with support through what must have been an unimaginable period. Care for him – and indeed all families affected by the tragedy – remains our absolute priority.
“Senior leaders from across Tata Group continue to visit families to express their deepest condolences. An offer has been made to Mr Ramesh’s representatives to arrange such a meeting, we will continue to reach out and we very much hope to receive a positive response.
“We are keenly aware this continues to be an incredibly difficult time for all affected and continue to offer the support, compassion, and care we can in the circumstances.”
Mr Patel also claims the UK government took away Mr Ramesh’s family’s Universal Credit after they went to India following the disaster.
Read more:
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Plane suffered ‘no mechanical fault’ before crash
According to the government’s website, those receiving Universal Credit can continue to do so if they go abroad for one month. This can be extended to two months if “a close relative dies while you’re abroad and it would not be reasonable for you to come back to the UK”, it states.
They are calling on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to look into the family’s circumstances and pressure Air India into doing more to help.
Mr Patel appeals to him, saying: “Take action today. If this was your family, what would you do? And if you understand that, you’ll know what to do.”
He suggests the UK government can also be doing more directly to help families in Britain who have been “devastated” by the crash.
“So while we wait for Air India to do what’s right, there’s what the UK authorities and the system can do as being right to serve the citizens in support during this tragic time,” he adds.
The Department for Work and Pensions told Sky News: “Our thoughts remain with the loved ones affected by this devastating tragedy.
“Our policy ensures people travelling abroad due to a bereavement can continue receiving Universal Credit for up to two months, rather than the standard one-month limit. Those who are abroad for longer periods would not be able to continue receiving the benefit.
“People can make a new claim once they return to the UK. This approach strikes a balance between our commitment to ensuring people get the support they need and our duty to the taxpayer.”
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