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What are the big threats to our way of life?

This question was a lurking preoccupation at the London Defence Conference this week, attended by the prime minister and the chief of defence staff along with academics and politicians from across the Western world.

The immediate crisis is Ukraine, of course.

There was general consensus that victory is essential not just for Ukraine but also for the continued security of its allies. In the margins of the conference George Robertson, former NATO secretary general and UK defence secretary, warned that the rules-based order will be over unless Russia’s illegal and violent invasion is repelled.

Autocrats, in Africa, Latin America and elsewhere will feel free to grab territory and rewrite national borders if Putin gets away with invading a sovereign neighbour.

The commander of the UK’s armed forces, CDS Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, insisted that NATO must do everything it can to support Ukraine’s forces, short of joining the fight. The UK is aiming to train over 20,000 Ukrainian troops this year. He argued that Western politicians should “not be afraid of escalation”.

Time is pressing. Many feared that backing for Ukraine would quickly fracture should Donald Trump, or another Trumpist Republican, be elected to the US presidency in November 2024. Although the retired US Army general Ben Hodges was confident that the bipartisan support by Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress would survive even that.

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Ukraine is rewriting the global balance of power.

Most significantly NATO has been strengthened by formerly neutral Finland and Sweden seeking to join. Against that, Russia and China have drawn closer together, while rising “middle” powers in India, Africa, and Latin America have deliberately refused to take sides, effectively indulging Putin’s ambitions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a ceremony to present state decorations for achievements at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia
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There’s broad agreement in the West that Russian can’t be allowed to win the war

Beyond the much desired and essential liberation of Ukraine as a free nation state, what challenges lie ahead? I asked an all-female panel of experts to compile a “future risks” register of the threats they see to our security.

Their suggestions ranged far and wide: conflicts with Russia and/or China over Taiwan and the Arctic; Iran; nuclear weapons; Chinese expansionism, and conversely an economic slowdown in China; fragmentation or disruption of global supply chains and communications networks; climate change; competition for hydrocarbon energy sources and the rare earth metals essential for both digital communications and renewable energy generation; societal breakdown due to rising economic pressures.

In spite of the immense damage being wrought by Russia, there was a surprising consensus that Putin’s regime has miscalculated and that Russia is now effectively a dependency of China. Russia’s rebuff in Ukraine has removed any active threat of China invading Taiwan, for all of President Xi’s declared intention to resolve the matter this generation.

Russia’s power lies in its role as an oil and gas supplier. It has now joined Saudi Arabia in OPEC+ and China has brokered a cautious reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, another hydrocarbon producer. As Europe weans itself off Russian energy, these suppliers are finding new customers and building their influence in other parts of the world.

Helen Thompson, professor of political science at Cambridge University, raised the possibility that a new OPEC-style cartel could emerge of countries with rare earth metals which are vital for new technology. “Even if we succeed in decarbonising,” she said, the amount of foreign metal dependency we will have will be huge.”

At the same time, she pointed out that the best efforts of Saudi Arabia and its allies failed to stop the US becoming the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas. The world is becoming more competitive and multi-polar, but the US is likely to remain dominant thanks to its natural resources, its lead in technology and the strength of its economy.

As China’s population ages, its economy is growing more slowly. Western leaders need to be vigilant as China seeks to bend existing global institutions such as the UN to its own advantage but, unlike Russia, according to Professor Thomson, China does wish to smash the rules-based world order established after the Second World War.

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, China, April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/Pool
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Experts have warned about China’s ambitions but say any active threat to Taiwan has gone

Since the launch of ChatGPT, political leaders have been concerned about the “existential” threat posed by artificial intelligence.

Sam Altman, the chief executive of Open AI – which developed Chat GPT, was summoned to give evidence before the US Congress. This week he attended a meeting with Rishi Sunak, along with other tech bosses, to discuss how to moderate AI and prevent a catastrophe.

So far cooperation seems to be working, as tech innovators, including Elon Musk, voice their concerns to law makers.

Meanwhile, Nobel Peace winner Henry Kissinger has been focussing on the potential consequences of AI. Mr Kissinger, who was President Nixon’s secretary of state in the 1970s, is regarded by many as a foreign policy guru.

In a series of interviews to mark his 100th birthday this weekend, he has warned: “The speed with which artificial intelligence acts will make it problematical in crisis situations… I am now trying to do what I did with respect to nuclear weapons, to call attention to the importance of the impact of this evolution…It’s going to be different. Because in the previous arms races, you could develop plausible theories about how you might prevail. It’s a totally new problem intellectually…”

His comment helps to explain why AI was not discussed as a major risk by my panel. AI and quantum computers are likely to be extraordinarily powerful tools but they will ultimately be regulated and directed by human beings. They have no independent agency. It is up to us to get it right.

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There are concerns over AI but it will ultimately be regulated and directed by humans

With a self-deprecating “I would say this wouldn’t I?”, Polly Scully argued that data processing was potentially an asset which would could make the lives of citizens better through better analysis and forewarning of threats.

Her background was as a British civil servant working on crisis amelioration. She now works for Palantir, the Big Data analytics company co-founded by Peter Thiel, a major Silicon Valley investor.

The panellists – also including China expert Francesca Ghiretti and Mafrid Brout Hammer of the University of Oslo – agreed that a greater threat was posed by the disruption of communication and electricity supplies, possibly by malign cutting of under-sea cables than by the application of technology.

The discussions of risks at the London Defence Conference left me more optimistic.

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On the immediate crisis in Ukraine, Ukraine has not yet won and much sacrifice will be needed for years to come. But CDS Radakin said that Western forces have “nothing to learn from the way Russia is fighting”, but they are adapting and modernising rapidly themselves because of their experiences in the conflict.

He does not believe there is an incentive for Putin to deploy nuclear weapons because they would serve no military purpose and because they would provoke an overwhelming response from NATO.

Over the horizon there are certainly major challenges and threats. Globally we are not moving fast enough on climate change. Countries with different ideologies from the “Western” democratic nations are gaining strength. Western politically institutions have taken a kicking recently thanks to poor and self-indulgent leadership.

Much work is required to win back hearts and minds around the world. But, if we pull ourselves together, “We” in the Western democracies still have the material, technological and human resources to overcome those risks which we can see ahead.

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Europe must ‘ramp up’ pressure on Russia, says No 10 after Coalition of the Willing meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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Europe must 'ramp up' pressure on Russia, says No 10 after Coalition of the Willing meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Europe must “ramp up” pressure on Russia “to bring an end to this barbaric war”, a Downing Street spokesperson said after Sir Keir Starmer chaired a meeting with the Coalition of the Willing.

Earlier, the prime minister met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at Downing Street for crisis talks on the future of Ukraine.

After the Downing Street meeting, a spokesperson said Sir Keir “convened a call with other European allies alongside President Zelenskyy”.

“The leaders all agreed that now is a critical moment and that we must continue to ramp up support to Ukraine and economic pressure on Putin to bring an end to this barbaric war.”

Ukraine latest: ‘Critical stage’ in push for peace

Friedrich Merz, Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron at Downing Street. Pic: Reuters
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Friedrich Merz, Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron at Downing Street. Pic: Reuters

During the earlier meeting, the Downing Street spokesperson said that the leaders “discussed the importance of the US-led peace talks for European security and supported the progress made”.

All four “underscored the need for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, which includes robust security guarantees,” the spokesperson added.

“The leaders agreed that, while diplomatic efforts continue, Europe must stand with Ukraine, strengthening its ability to defend against relentless attacks that have left thousands without heat or light,” they said.

“They also discussed positive progress made to use immobilised Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction.”

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Mr Zelenskyy arrives at Downing Street

After arriving in the UK, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on Telegram that “we are joining our efforts to end this war with a decent peace for Ukraine” and that “security must be guaranteed”.

He later said: “We can’t manage without Americans, we can’t manage without Europe and that is why we need to make some important decisions.”

The discussions come as US President Donald Trump accused Mr Zelenskyy of having failed to read the latest peace plan.

He said he was “a little disappointed” in the Ukrainian leader, while insisting Russia’s Vladimir Putin was “fine with it”.

Mr Trump’s eldest son had earlier told Sky’s lead world news presenter Yalda Hakim in an interview that his father may walk away from the Ukraine peace process.

When asked directly if he believed the US president would walk away from Ukraine, he answered: “I think he may, what’s good about my father and what’s unique about my father is you don’t know what he’s going to do. He’s unpredictable.”

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Sir Keir had earlier insisted any ceasefire must be “just” and “lasting”, adding: “We are at a critical stage in the push for peace.

“The principles remain the same. We stand with Ukraine, and if there is to be a ceasefire, it needs to be a just and lasting ceasefire.”

Mr Macron had insisted Ukraine’s allies have “a lot of cards” – but the main issue was to “finalise these peace negotiations” and find the “best possible conditions for Ukraine, for the Europeans, and for collective security”.

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Why the meeting in London is important

Moments after arriving at Downing Street, Mr Merz said he was “sceptical about some of the details in documents coming from the US” but that was one of the reasons for Monday’s talks.

The four European leaders emerged from Downing Street at around 2.20pm for a group photo – but declined to answer any questions from the media.

Sir Keir and Mr Zelenskyy then went back inside the prime minister’s residence for further talks while Mr Macron and Mr Merz departed.

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The London meeting comes after Mr Zelenskyy’s officials concluded three days of talks with US diplomats.

Over the weekend, Mr Zelenskyy said he had discussed “next steps” with Mr Trump’s advisers and was “determined to keep working in good faith”.

According to Vatican sources, the Ukrainian president will next meet with Pope Leo at Castel Gandolfo, the papal residence outside of Rome, on Tuesday morning.

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Israeli government accused of intimidation and harassment after raid on UN building in Jerusalem

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Israeli government accused of intimidation and harassment after raid on UN building in Jerusalem

The Israeli government has been accused of intimidation, harassment and a “blatant disregard” of its obligations by the United Nations after Israeli officials raided a UN building in Jerusalem.

Police officers, along with officials from the town council, entered the East Jerusalem compound of UNRWA, the UN agency that provides services to Palestinian refugees.

The compound has been empty since January, when the Israeli government ordered UNRWA to close the building, accusing the agency of being “infested” with members of Hamas.

The United Nations denied that accusation vehemently.

Read more: What were UNRWA workers in Gaza accused of?

Having gained entry to the compound, the officials filled vehicles with possessions, including office furniture, and raised an Israeli flag in place of the United Nations flag.

They claimed that the building had been raided because UNRWA owed around hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of local taxes.

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However, under the UN charter, UN buildings are exempt from such taxes and are also considered “inviolable”, meaning that, rather than raiding the building, Israel has an obligation to protect it.

Since its staff were told to leave, there have been attempts to break into the compound, which has been secured by a team of guards employed by the UN.

Sky News has been told that, when the Israeli officials arrived on Monday morning, the security guards were detained in a room within the compound.

“We didn’t let them in when they first came to the compound, but they cut the chains and the locks and took control,” said George, the head of security, who was standing outside the front gate when we arrived.

“They told my guards to stay in one room, took their phones from them, and told them they couldn’t leave.”

‘The false accusations led to this’

UNRWA’s commissioner-general, Philippe Lazzarini, said the raid was “a blatant disregard of Israel’s obligation as a United Nations Member State to protect and respect the inviolability of UN premises”.

He said that failing to cooperate with UN agencies “represent a new challenge to international law, one that creates a dangerous precedent anywhere else the UN is present across the world”.

His anger was not isolated. Outside the gates of the UNRWA compound, we met Hakam Shahwam, who used to work here as UNRWA’s chief of staff. It was, he said, “a very sad day”.

Shahwam says the claims that UNRWA was a breeding ground for Hamas had led to the raid.

He told me: “The false accusations led to this. This is a shameful day, not only for the United Nations but also for the government of Israel.

“There must be a strong protest, and a response from the international community. This is unacceptable.”

Read more from Adam Parsons:
Gaza longs for normality, but quasi-anarchy reigns
Israeli forces kill two Palestinians after apparent surrender

‘It is time for UNRWA to be dismantled’

The Israeli government remains adamant that its criticism of UNRWA is justified.

When I asked Shosh Bedrosian, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, about the raid, she said: “UNRWA is a stain on the United Nations.”

She added: “It is time for UNRWA to be dismantled. It is not part of the solution for Gaza, it is part of the problem.”

She did not comment on the legality of the raid, or on Israel’s ongoing commitment to the UN Charter.

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Greek farmers have forced shutdown of Crete airport

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Greek farmers have forced shutdown of Crete airport

Greek farmers angered by delayed subsidy payments have shut down the international airport on Crete and clashed with riot police.

Images from local media showed dozens of farmers standing on the apron at Nikos Kazantzakis International Airport in Heraklion, the largest city on Crete.

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters


The airport was forced to suspend all flights, while fights between protesters and riot police broke out in Chania, the Greek island’s second-largest city, where two people were reportedly injured.

Officers used tear gas to disperse protesting farmers who pelted them with rocks and overturned a police patrol car, according to local media.

Pics: AP
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Pics: AP

The protests were sparked after delays in the payment of European Union-backed agricultural subsidies, which followed a scandal over fraudulent subsidy claims.

Authorities are reviewing all requests for EU farm subsidies, which protesters argue amount to collective punishment and leave farmers in debt and unable to plant their fields for next season.

Meanwhile, Greece’s farming sector has been hit by an outbreak of goat and sheep pox, leading to a mass cull of livestock.

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Farmers have since deployed thousands of tractors and other agricultural vehicles at border crossings and key points along highways across the country, as well as ports and airports.

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Pics: Reuters
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Pics: Reuters

Michalis Chrisochoidis, Greek minister for public order, said last week that the government remained open to talks with protest leaders, but warned it wouldn’t tolerate the shutdown of major transit points.

It comes after riot police fired tear gas at protesting farmers attempting to block the main access road to the international airport outside the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki on Friday.

Elsewhere, police have been enforcing traffic diversions in several parts of northern and central Greece, while farmer roadblocks at the country’s northern borders with Bulgaria, Turkey and North Macedonia have hampered truck traffic.

Protests by farmers are common in Greece, and similar blockades in the past have sometimes severed all road traffic between the north and south of the country for weeks.

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