This question was a lurking preoccupation at the London Defence Conference this week, attended by the prime minister and the chief of defence staff along with academics and politicians from across the Western world.
There was general consensus that victory is essential not just for Ukraine but also for the continued security of its allies. In the margins of the conference George Robertson, former NATO secretary general and UK defence secretary, warned that the rules-based order will be over unless Russia’s illegal and violent invasion is repelled.
Autocrats, in Africa, Latin America and elsewhere will feel free to grab territory and rewrite national borders if Putin gets away with invading a sovereign neighbour.
The commander of the UK’s armed forces, CDS Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, insisted that NATO must do everything it can to support Ukraine’s forces, short of joining the fight. The UK is aiming to train over 20,000 Ukrainian troops this year. He argued that Western politicians should “not be afraid of escalation”.
Time is pressing. Many feared that backing for Ukraine would quickly fracture should Donald Trump, or another Trumpist Republican, be elected to the US presidency in November 2024. Although the retired US Army general Ben Hodges was confident that the bipartisan support by Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress would survive even that.
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Ukraine is rewriting the global balance of power.
Most significantly NATO has been strengthened by formerly neutral Finland and Sweden seeking to join. Against that, Russia and China have drawn closer together, while rising “middle” powers in India, Africa, and Latin America have deliberately refused to take sides, effectively indulging Putin’s ambitions.
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Image: There’s broad agreement in the West that Russian can’t be allowed to win the war
Beyond the much desired and essential liberation of Ukraine as a free nation state, what challenges lie ahead? I asked an all-female panel of experts to compile a “future risks” register of the threats they see to our security.
Their suggestions ranged far and wide: conflicts with Russia and/or China over Taiwan and the Arctic; Iran; nuclear weapons; Chinese expansionism, and conversely an economic slowdown in China; fragmentation or disruption of global supply chains and communications networks; climate change; competition for hydrocarbon energy sources and the rare earth metals essential for both digital communications and renewable energy generation; societal breakdown due to rising economic pressures.
In spite of the immense damage being wrought by Russia, there was a surprising consensus that Putin’s regime has miscalculated and that Russia is now effectively a dependency of China. Russia’s rebuff in Ukraine has removed any active threat of China invading Taiwan, for all of President Xi’s declared intention to resolve the matter this generation.
Russia’s power lies in its role as an oil and gas supplier. It has now joined Saudi Arabia in OPEC+ and China has brokered a cautious reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, another hydrocarbon producer. As Europe weans itself off Russian energy, these suppliers are finding new customers and building their influence in other parts of the world.
Helen Thompson, professor of political science at Cambridge University, raised the possibility that a new OPEC-style cartel could emerge of countries with rare earth metals which are vital for new technology. “Even if we succeed in decarbonising,” she said, the amount of foreign metal dependency we will have will be huge.”
At the same time, she pointed out that the best efforts of Saudi Arabia and its allies failed to stop the US becoming the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas. The world is becoming more competitive and multi-polar, but the US is likely to remain dominant thanks to its natural resources, its lead in technology and the strength of its economy.
As China’s population ages, its economy is growing more slowly. Western leaders need to be vigilant as China seeks to bend existing global institutions such as the UN to its own advantage but, unlike Russia, according to Professor Thomson, China does wish to smash the rules-based world order established after the Second World War.
Image: Experts have warned about China’s ambitions but say any active threat to Taiwan has gone
Since the launch of ChatGPT, political leaders have been concerned about the “existential” threat posed by artificial intelligence.
Sam Altman, the chief executive of Open AI – which developed Chat GPT, was summoned to give evidence before the US Congress. This week he attended a meeting with Rishi Sunak, along with other tech bosses, to discuss how to moderate AI and prevent a catastrophe.
So far cooperation seems to be working, as tech innovators, including Elon Musk, voice their concerns to law makers.
Meanwhile, Nobel Peace winner Henry Kissinger has been focussing on the potential consequences of AI. Mr Kissinger, who was President Nixon’s secretary of state in the 1970s, is regarded by many as a foreign policy guru.
In a series of interviews to mark his 100th birthday this weekend, he has warned: “The speed with which artificial intelligence acts will make it problematical in crisis situations… I am now trying to do what I did with respect to nuclear weapons, to call attention to the importance of the impact of this evolution…It’s going to be different. Because in the previous arms races, you could develop plausible theories about how you might prevail. It’s a totally new problem intellectually…”
His comment helps to explain why AI was not discussed as a major risk by my panel. AI and quantum computers are likely to be extraordinarily powerful tools but they will ultimately be regulated and directed by human beings. They have no independent agency. It is up to us to get it right.
Image: There are concerns over AI but it will ultimately be regulated and directed by humans
With a self-deprecating “I would say this wouldn’t I?”, Polly Scully argued that data processing was potentially an asset which would could make the lives of citizens better through better analysis and forewarning of threats.
Her background was as a British civil servant working on crisis amelioration. She now works for Palantir, the Big Data analytics company co-founded by Peter Thiel, a major Silicon Valley investor.
The panellists – also including China expert Francesca Ghiretti and Mafrid Brout Hammer of the University of Oslo – agreed that a greater threat was posed by the disruption of communication and electricity supplies, possibly by malign cutting of under-sea cables than by the application of technology.
The discussions of risks at the London Defence Conference left me more optimistic.
On the immediate crisis in Ukraine, Ukraine has not yet won and much sacrifice will be needed for years to come. But CDS Radakin said that Western forces have “nothing to learn from the way Russia is fighting”, but they are adapting and modernising rapidly themselves because of their experiences in the conflict.
He does not believe there is an incentive for Putin to deploy nuclear weapons because they would serve no military purpose and because they would provoke an overwhelming response from NATO.
Over the horizon there are certainly major challenges and threats. Globally we are not moving fast enough on climate change. Countries with different ideologies from the “Western” democratic nations are gaining strength. Western politically institutions have taken a kicking recently thanks to poor and self-indulgent leadership.
Much work is required to win back hearts and minds around the world. But, if we pull ourselves together, “We” in the Western democracies still have the material, technological and human resources to overcome those risks which we can see ahead.
A hidden, underground military base in eastern Ukraine is so secret, soldiers change into civilian clothes whenever they step outside to avoid drawing attention.
Journalists are not usually allowed access.
But the unit that has been using this vast, subterranean warren of war rooms, a dormitory, kitchen, canteen and makeshift gym as its headquarters since the summer is imminently relocating, so Sky News was invited inside.
Lieutenant Colonel Arsen Dimitric – call sign Lemko – is the chief of staff of 1st Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, one of the country’s most effective combat forces.
Image: Lemko
He sat with us in the base, next to a large square table, covered by a map of the Donbas region.
His soldiers have been fighting in this area since the summer, countering a surge in Russian attacks in and around the frontline city of Pokrovsk.
“We aim to destroy as much of the enemy as possible,” he said.
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“Will we take losses? Yes. Will it hurt? Absolutely.”
But he said if Russia is allowed to advance, even more Ukrainians will suffer.
“Their [the Russians’] only advantage is numbers,” he said.
“They don’t care how many people they lose.”
Lemko said almost 17,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded fighting in this section of the warzone alone between August to November.
Ukrainian video footage of the battlefield showed Russian armoured vehicles being taken out by drones and artillery fire.
At one point, Russian soldiers mounted on motorbikes try to advance, only to be stopped by Ukrainian fire.
“Our task is to hit them as hard as possible in various areas,” Lemko said. “We focus on our operations, others on theirs, and leadership will negotiate the best possible terms.”
The Azov Corps soldiers are fighting over land that should be handed over to Russia, according to an initial draft of a peace deal proposal between Kyiv and Moscow put forward by the United States. This is despite swathes of the Donbas remaining under Ukrainian control.
But General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, has since told Sky News that simply surrendering territory would be “unacceptable”.
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3:31
Giving up territory ‘unacceptable’, Ukraine’s military chief says
For Lemko, he says the job of his troops is to inflict as much damage as possible on the Russian side to help strengthen Ukraine’s hand in negotiations.
“Simply giving it [land] away isn’t the way,” he said.
“Diplomats do their work, we do ours. Our job as soldiers is to give as many advantages as possible to our negotiating team. And we’re doing exactly that.”
Lemko, who has been battling against Russia since the Crimean annexation in 2014, also had a warning for the rest of Europe about a rise in hybrid attacks, such as mysterious drone sightings, acts of sabotage and cyber hacks suspected of being linked to Moscow.
He said Ukraine’s experience showed that if attacks by Russia that fall under the threshold of conventional war are not successfully countered, full-scale conflict could follow.
“Ukraine once lost a hybrid war that had been waged since the very start of our independence,” he said.
“Because of that defeat, there was a physical operation against us in Crimea and then a physical operation in 2022.
“Now the hybrid war has reached its climax, and it is moving into the Baltic States and Europe.
“That is why, in my opinion – and in the opinion of most of our officers – now is the moment for all countries to unite and counter this hybrid war. Because the consequence may be a physical one.”
Production: Katy Scholes, security and defence producer, and Azad Safarov, Ukraine producer.
At least 25 people have been killed after a fire at a nightclub in Goa, the state’s police service has said.
The fire reportedly started around midnight on Saturday local time.
The majority of victims were kitchen staff at the club – although around three to four tourists are thought to be among those killed.
Videos on social media showed emergency services lining up to help the injured – some of whom were taken to nearby hospitals.
Dr Pramod Sawant, Goa’s chief minister, said: “I am deeply grieved and offer my heartfelt condolences to all the bereaved families in this hour of unimaginable loss.”
He later said he was “closely reviewing the situation arising from the tragic fire” – adding six additional people had been injured.
“All six injured persons are in a stable condition and are receiving the best medical care,” he said.
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Image: Pic: NDTV
Image: Fire at nightclub in Goa. Pic: NDTV
Authorities worked through the night to bring the situation under control and all bodies have been recovered, the state’s police chief told reporters, according to Reuters news agency.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the deadly fire was “deeply saddening”.
He said he had spoken with Goa’s chief minister and that “the state government is providing all possible assistance to those affected”.
Dr Sawant said he has “ordered an inquiry” to discover what happened after visiting the site.
Image: Pic: AP
“The inquiry will examine the exact cause of the fire and whether fire safety norms and building rules were followed,” he said.
“Those found responsible will face most stringent action under the law – any negligence will be dealt with firmly.”
Goa, a small state on India’s western coast, is a popular tourist destination, attracting millions of tourists every year.
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight, after US and Ukrainian officials said they would meet for a third day of talks aimed at bringing the war to an end.
The two sides said they had made progress on a security framework for post-war Ukraine, but that any “real progress toward any agreement” will depend “on Russia’s readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace.”
Russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles in its attack on Ukraine, triggering air raid alerts across the country, Ukraine’s air force said.
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Giving up territory ‘unacceptable’ – Ukraine’s military chief
Ukrainian forces shot down and neutralised 585 drones and 30 missiles, the air force said, adding that 29 locations were struck.
At least eight people were wounded in the attacks, Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs Ihor Klymenko said.
Russia conducted a “massive missile-drone attack” on power stations and other energy infrastructure in several regions, Ukraine’s national energy operator Ukrenergo said on Instagram.
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant temporarily lost all off-site power overnight, the International Atomic Energy Agency said.
The plant is in an area that has been under Russian control since early in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It is not in service, but needs reliable power to cool its six shutdown reactors and spent fuel in order to avoid any catastrophic nuclear incidents.
Image: Russia struke a train station in the city of Fastiv. Pics: Reuters
Zelenskyy condemns ‘meaningless’ strikes
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strikes as “meaningless” from a military point of view.
He said energy facilities were the main targets, but a drone strike had “burned down” a train station in the city of Fastiv, in the Kyiv region.
“The Russians’ goal is to hurt millions of Ukrainians, and they have sunk so low that they are launching missiles at peaceful cities on St. Nicholas Day,” he said.
“That is why additional pressure is needed. Sanctions must work, and so must our air defence, which means we must continue to support those who defend our lives.”
Ukraine strikes oil refinery
Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry said its air defences had shot down 116 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory overnight.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Ukrainian forces had struck Russia’s Ryazan Oil Refinery, while Russian Telegram news channel Astra shared footage appearing to show a fire breaking out and plumes of smoke rising above the refinery.
Over the last few months, Ukraine has used long-range drones to target Russian refineries in an attempt to deprive Moscow of the oil export revenue it needs to continue the war.
Meanwhile, Kyiv and its Western allies say Russia is trying to cripple Ukraine’s power grid and deny civilians access to heat, light and running water in winter, which Ukrainian officials call “weaponising” the cold.
On Monday, Mr Zelenskyy will meet Sir Keir Starmer in London to discuss the ongoing negotiations mediated by the US, along with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.