College football’s most intriguing September games, coaches under pressure and exciting newcomers
We’re less than 100 days away from the start of the 2023 college football season, and the full September schedule is being released. So we’re gearing up for what the first month of the campaign will have to offer.
Our reporters break down must-see games for September, identify newcomers to watch and address questions that are still lingering. Plus, Adam Rittenberg lists coaches who are already on the hot seat, and Heather Dinich breaks down how September will impact the College Football Playoff picture.
Jump to: September’s must-see games | Playoff | Under pressure
Newcomers | Unanswered questions | Teams in new places
Most intriguing September games
LSU vs. Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, Sept. 3 on ABC/ESPN App). The 2022 season opener between these two teams delivered a wild, heart-stopping, back-and-forth game that ended up being one of the most memorable of the campaign. But the stakes for both teams are vastly different headed into their season opener this year, this time in Orlando. Florida State used the win over LSU last year to help propel the program to its first 10-win season since 2016, and with the vast majority of its team returning, the expectation is for the Seminoles to be big-time contenders this year. Meanwhile, LSU also goes into this season with huge expectations in Year 2 under Brian Kelly, coming off an unexpected 10 wins of its own. There is already talk this game could have College Football Playoff implications. At the very least, we will get a sense of whether these teams are for real in 2023. Get your popcorn ready. — Andrea Adelson
Texas at Alabama (7 p.m. ET, Sept. 9 on ESPN/ESPN App). The dynamics for both teams entering this year’s matchup in Tuscaloosa are fascinating. Alabama needs to catch Georgia and reclaim its spot atop the college football kingdom, while sorting out a quarterback situation that added a layer with Tyler Buchner‘s transfer from Notre Dame. Texas enters its final year in the Big 12 without any CFP appearances and no conference titles since 2009. Coach Steve Sarkisian needs to deliver the results that match his playcalling and recruiting prowess. Texas largely outplayed Alabama last year before Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young saved the day. A road win for the Longhorns would put them squarely on the CFP radar and create more angst around Nick Saban and Alabama. A convincing Alabama win would propel the team into SEC play, where the home schedule (Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU) favors the Tide. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State at Notre Dame (Sept. 23, time and network TBD): A season-opening victory over Notre Dame in Columbus helped furnish Ohio State‘s résumé last year — in light of a second straight defeat to Michigan — on its way to reaching the College Football Playoff. By the time Ohio State touches down at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana, for the first time since 1996, whoever wins the QB competition between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown to succeed C.J. Stroud will have had a road trip to the Indiana Hoosiers under their belt. But Marcus Freeman’s team will offer a stiffer test, especially with Wake Forest import Sam Hartman under center. — Blake Baumgartner
Tennessee at Florida (Sept. 16, time and network TBD): Tennessee won for only the second time in the schools’ past 18 meetings a season ago, fueling the Vols to their first 11-win campaign since 2001. Josh Heupel was able to break through in only his second year as Tennessee’s coach. The venue shifts to the Swamp on Sept. 16. Billy Napier, entering his second year as Florida‘s coach, gets a chance in front of the home folks to show he has the Gators heading in the right direction after their 6-7 finish in 2022. The obvious question: If Heupel could do it in two years (especially in the shadow of an NCAA investigation), why can’t Napier? Each team will have a new starting quarterback. And the Gators will be facing their second preseason top-15 team in the first three weeks of the season; they open at Utah on Aug. 31. — Chris Low
Pitt at West Virginia (Sept. 16, time and network TBD). This isn’t going to be the most talented matchup you’ll see in September, but it will be the most hate-filled. The Backyard Brawl ended an 11-year hiatus last season at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with the Panthers coming out on top 38-31. While the revival last year was great for the teams and for college football, many in the rivalry would tell you it is different when it’s played in Morgantown, with stories of Mountaineers fans throwing anything they can find at the Pitt bus as it rolls up to the stadium. Pitt hasn’t won in Morgantown since 2007, when it spoiled the Mountaineers’ BCS title hopes with a 13-9 decision. The energy of the feud didn’t go away despite the long pause, and it will be nothing less than at its peak in Morgantown. — Harry Lyles Jr.
South Carolina at Georgia (Sept. 16, 3:30 p.m., CBS): All due respect to UT Martin and Ball State, but this will be Georgia‘s first real test of the 2023 season. The Bulldogs, fresh off back-to-back national championships, have some questions to answer. Chief among them: Who will start at quarterback now that Stetson Bennett is gone? Will it be Carson Beck or Brock Vandagriff? Neither has much experience. And what about the defense now that Jalen Carter, Chris Smith and Kelee Ringo have left? This team has recruited at an elite level since Kirby Smart arrived in 2015, but don’t lose sight of those 25 NFL draft picks over the past two seasons. That’s a lot of talent to replace. Meanwhile, South Carolina has Spencer Rattler back at quarterback and is riding a wave of momentum, after beating top-10 teams Tennessee and Clemson to close out the 2022 regular season and losing a close game to Notre Dame in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. — Alex Scarborough
USC at Colorado (Sept. 30, time and network TBD): For the past several seasons, this matchup has had no real consequence or fanfare. This year, that changes with the arrival of Deion Sanders in Boulder. If we’re being honest, every Colorado game will have some level of noteworthiness or excitement surrounding it. But this one, in particular, sticks out due to the parallel nature of the teams. Lincoln Riley was the newcomer last season, and he proceeded to take USC from a 4-8 squad to a team that was one win away from the College Football Playoff. That kind of leap isn’t expected of Sanders, but with the hype still very much present around him, the matchup with Riley will be an attention grabber, nonetheless. Plus, this will be an entertaining duel that we might get only once given USC is headed to the Big Ten after this season. — Paolo Uggetti
What we’ll learn about the playoff in September
Hey Texas, are you back?! No really … for real this time?
A win at Alabama on Sept. 9 will help answer that, and it would legitimize Texas as an early College Football Playoff contender. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas at Alabama will have the biggest impact on the playoff race of any of the September nonconference games, and it’s one of the eight most impactful games of the regular season.
It’s certainly possible for Alabama and Texas to finish in the top four together — especially if they win their respective leagues — but if they are competing for a top-four spot with similar records, the selection committee could use the head-to-head result as one of the tiebreakers.
Texas could ultimately have a win over the SEC champion — and not win the Big 12. That’s a scenario that could mirror what happened to Ohio State this past season, which might not have finished in the top four last fall without its season-opening win against Notre Dame.
But in a four-team CFP, it is more complicated than just winning; that win needs to continue to resonate. For Ohio State last season, the Fighting Irish finished as a top-25 team, bolstering the Buckeyes’ final résumé and helping Ohio State compensate for not winning the Big Ten East division. The same scenario could unfold this year, with Ohio State at Notre Dame on Sept. 23. The winner of that game will earn instant credibility among CFP committee members, while the loser will be under tremendous pressure for the rest of the season.
Bottom line: For September games to continue to matter, both teams have to stay relevant. That wasn’t the case for Florida State last year, which eked out a one-point win over eventual SEC West champion LSU but couldn’t do anything with it because the Seminoles lost three straight to Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson. Expectations are higher in Tallahassee, and a convincing win in Week 1 against an even better LSU team would validate that.
September also can have a negative impact on contenders’ playoff hopes. Once again, Michigan has a weak nonconference lineup, starting September against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green — teams that each finished with at least five losses last season. It would only be a factor if Michigan doesn’t win the Big Ten again. If the Wolverines lose to either Ohio State or Penn State, they’d likely have only one statement win — and no conference title — for the committee to consider.
— Heather Dinich
Coaches who need to get off to a hot start
The 2023 college coaching hot seat doesn’t have the same sense of inevitable doom as last season’s.
Unlike in 2022, when four coaches — Nebraska‘s Scott Frost, Arizona State‘s Herm Edwards, Georgia Tech‘s Geoff Collins and Auburn‘s Bryan Harsin — began the season with little to no chance of making it through, those currently feeling the heat still have a chance to change course. West Virginia‘s Neal Brown, who survived a tumultuous season while the athletic director who hired him (Shane Lyons) did not, might be the only major conference coach who needs a quick start to avoid the increasingly popular early-season to midseason dismissal. The Mountaineers will face Penn State, Pitt, Texas Tech and TCU — all in September — in a stiff challenge for Brown, who enters his fifth season at 22-25.
Other than Brown, few notable coaches are squarely on the hot seat. Syracuse‘s Dino Babers likely needs a solid September after a poor finish to the 2022 season. Justin Wilcox can’t fall further behind in an improving Pac-12, although Cal‘s financial and administrative challenges could save him. Jimbo Fisher’s situation will be hotly debated if Texas A&M stumbles early, but his bloated contract makes a dismissal expensive, if not impossible. Coach-friendly contracts also favor Northwestern‘s Pat Fitzgerald, Indiana‘s Tom Allen and others who have endured recent struggles. Still, they could benefit from strong starts, as could Missouri‘s Eliah Drinkwitz and a host of Group of 5 coaches, including Memphis‘ Ryan Silverfield and Arkansas State‘s Butch Jones.
The upcoming coaching cycle could be on the lighter side, possibly a residual effect of the historic 2021 carousel and last year’s, which featured 24 total changes and surprise moves at Wisconsin, Stanford and Louisville. But the carousel only needs an A-list job or two to open, either through firing, retirement or NFL exit, for things to become wild again.
What could those jobs be? Texas A&M certainly will be watched. Florida coach Billy Napier deserves more time to implement a layered plan, but what if the team endures a losing season? Jim Harbaugh’s NFL discussions have become an annual annoyance for Michigan, but what if a pro squad gives him the opportunity he seems to covet? Harbaugh’s teams have become more than an annoyance for Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who tries to avoid a third loss to the Wolverines. The job pressure around Day is fan-created, but continued struggles against Michigan could nudge one of the nation’s top quarterback coaches closer to the NFL.
Several prominent coaches will be on the annual retirement radar, with none more significant than Alabama’s Nick Saban, who turns 72 on Halloween. Others being watched include North Carolina‘s Mack Brown (turns 72 on Aug. 27), Iowa‘s Kirk Ferentz (turns 68 on Aug. 1) and Utah‘s Kyle Whittingham (turns 64 on Nov. 21).
Calling for a coaching cycle to be light or dull essentially guarantees chaos, but don’t expect the run of early firings like in 2022. When November rolls around, though, all bets are off.
— Rittenberg
Newcomers we’re most excited to see
Clemson DL Peter Woods. Much has been made of Woods’ exceptional play as an early enrollee this spring, which has everybody in the Clemson fan base excited to see what happens when the season opens. Clemson spent nearly all of last season banged up along its defensive line, but with veterans Xavier Thomas, Tyler Davis and Ruke Orhorhoro returning, integrating Woods into the lineup should be seamless. During the spring game broadcast, coach Dabo Swinney described him as “like a Halley’s comet. Every now and then you get a guy that physically and mentally and maturity and all the intangibles, he’s just ready.” — Adelson
A new-look Colorado. There are two surefire ways to create excitement: Do something no one’s ever seen before, or turn into a complete train wreck. It’s entirely possible Deion Sanders will do both at Colorado this season, and there’s no storyline more intriguing in all of college sports. Coach Prime has completely turned over his roster. He’s installed his son, Shedeur Sanders, at quarterback. He’s backed up an 18-wheeler to the entrance to the transfer portal and announced, “All aboard!” He’s landed some extremely interesting prospects like Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Tar’Varish Dawson Jr., but how much chemistry can a team have when 80% of the roster is brand new? Is Sanders writing a new script for how to win or just scripting college football’s most chaotic reality show? Honestly, there’s no outcome that seems entirely out of the question. — David Hale
New faces for Alabama: Not that Alabama has ever lacked for talent under Nick Saban, but there will be three new faces this fall who Tide fans will want to keep their eyes on. Let’s start on offense with massive true freshman Kadyn Proctor. At 6-foot-7, 354 pounds, he will be hard to miss (literally) and was impressive enough in the spring that he could be Alabama’s starting left tackle by the opener, or at the very least, a few games into the season. Junior college receiver Malik Benson will provide an immediate boost to the receiving corps with his explosive playmaking ability, and freshman safety Caleb Downs might have been the best of the bunch in the spring. Alabama needed some help in the secondary, and Downs looks game-ready. Even Saban had trouble finding flaws in Downs’ game. — Low
Freshman RBs for the Tide: To piggyback off Low here, keep an eye on Alabama’s two freshman running backs: Richard Young and Justice Haynes. They were ESPN’s No. 1- and No. 2-ranked backs in the 2023 class, respectively. We’ve already gotten a sneak peak at Haynes, who enrolled early and scored three touchdowns during Alabama’s spring game in April. He has the power and speed to be a top back in the SEC. Paired with Young, Alabama could have a special backfield for the next three-plus years. And they should get plenty of opportunities as the Tide look to make more of a commitment to the running game under new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. — Scarborough
UCLA QB Dante Moore. Five-star quarterback Moore’s decision to flip from Oregon to UCLA in the days before the December signing period was one of the biggest takeaways and a boon for Chip Kelly in the post-Dorian Thompson-Robinson era. Kelly did secure former Kent State QB Collin Schlee through the portal to join sophomore Ethan Garbers in the QB room. But convincing Moore, who threw for 2,392 yards and 32 TDs as a senior for Martin Luther King High School (Michigan), to make the move from Detroit to Pasadena could be the perfect way for the Bruins to keep the offensive momentum going after finishing third in the Pac-12 in total offense (503.5 YPG) last season. — Baumgartner
Oklahoma S Peyton Bowen: Bowen’s recruitment became one of the wilder stories heading into the December signing period. The five-star safety from Texas (ESPN’s No. 17 overall prospect) initially committed to Notre Dame for a year before flipping to Oregon and then Oklahoma during a furious 24 hours. He joins quarterback Jackson Arnold, his high school teammate and ESPN’s No. 3 overall prospect, in Norman. Bowen and five-star defensive end Adepoju Adebawore are the types of defensive recruits Oklahoma hired coach Brent Venables to sign, especially with the SEC transition on the horizon in 2024. They should see the field this fall, and their performances could open eyes of similar defensive prospects toward OU and the chance to play for Venables. Bowen is Oklahoma’s highest-rated defensive recruit since ESPN launched its rankings. — Rittenberg
The Uigaleileis in Oregon. The Uiagalelei family has made Oregon their home. Between DJ‘s transfer to Oregon State and his brother, five-star freshman defensive end Matayo, committing to Oregon, the two will be spotlighted plenty come the start of the season in the Pacific Northwest. Matayo, in particular, will be a fun one to watch in Dan Lanning’s defense. While it remains unclear how big of a role the freshman will have in next year’s team, there’s an expectation he’ll get plenty of snaps due to his athleticism and size already at such a young age. — Uggetti
Unanswered questions for September
Alabama’s QB situation. The default opinion on Alabama’s QB situation is that, “Hey, it’s Alabama. It’ll get figured out.” Indeed, Nick Saban has won a lot of games even when he hasn’t had a future first-rounder at QB, and in the seven previous instances in which Saban lacked a clear-cut incumbent at Alabama, the eventual starters in those seasons completed 67% of their throws, accounted for 192 touchdowns and just 53 turnovers and posted a combined 79-4 record, with the Tide winning four national championships. And yet … when Tommy Rees is recruiting the guy who just lost Notre Dame’s QB battle to come to Alabama, it has the feel of a red flag. Every dynasty comes to an end eventually. You’d be a fool to assume Alabama’s best days are behind it just because of a little QB controversy now, but it’s just as hard to feel like the Tide have a good answer at the most important position on the field, too. — Hale
Can Payton Thorne succeed in the SEC? Thorne, if he’s healthy, will provide Hugh Freeze and Auburn an experienced signal-caller to try to navigate the SEC. Thorne’s 3,233 passing yards and 27 touchdowns in Michigan State’s 11-win season in 2021 proved he’s capable of playing at a high level. The Tigers’ first three conference games — at Texas A&M, Georgia and at LSU — will see Auburn thrown into the fire early. A two-year starter in Thorne may give Freeze the best chance to improve an offensive attack that finished 10th in total yards (378.5 YPG) and last in passing yards (172.7 YPG) in the SEC last year. — Baumgartner
How will Garrett Riley impact Cade Klubnik’s play? Give Dabo Swinney credit. He hasn’t been one to make many changes on his staff at Clemson, but he saw a chance to go out and get one of the brightest offensive minds in the game in Garrett Riley and brought him in to run a Clemson offense that had finished outside the top five nationally in scoring offense for two straight seasons. The passing game had really suffered, and Clemson fans are anxious to see what the offense looks like with Riley and sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik stepping into their new roles together. Klubnik spent most of last season as the backup to DJ Uiagalelei (who’s since transferred to Oregon State) before coming off the bench to replace him in the ACC championship game and then starting in the Orange Bowl loss to Tennessee. Riley has been outstanding at molding his offenses around his quarterback. Max Duggan is a great example at TCU. We’ll see if he can have that same success with Klubnik at Clemson. — Low
What exactly is going on at Texas A&M? Last season was an abject failure, as the Aggies finished 5-7 and sixth in the SEC West. But then some two dozen players started making their way to the transfer portal. And then Jimbo Fisher hired one of the most polarizing coaches in college football in Bobby Petrino to be his offensive coordinator. Given Fisher’s hesitancy to give up playcalling, that could turn into a combustible situation if things go sideways. The early part of the schedule seems manageable (September will feature New Mexico, Miami, Louisiana Monroe, Auburn and Arkansas), but remember this is a team that lost to Appalachian State last year. A rocky start could place Fisher and his $95 million contract squarely on the hot seat. — Scarborough
UCLA’s quarterback battle? Situation? Whatever you (or Chip Kelly) wants to call it, I’m fascinated by the rise of Dante Moore and whether Kelly pulls the trigger and starts the five-star freshman from the get-go instead of going for the more conservative route such as Ethan Garbers or Kent State transfer Collin Schlee. As Blake outlined above, Moore is a star in the making, and his statistics and accolades make him as much of a foolproof prospect as you can have in the sport. In spring camp this year, Moore impressed as well, turning what could have been a development year sitting on the bench into a real chance to start come the fall. Whether Kelly opts for Moore to be the replacement for the departing Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Week 1 remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure: If Moore starts on the bench, he won’t be there for long. — Uggetti
Teams in new places
Three FBS conferences will have a new look this season. A snapshot of who’s coming and going in the American, Big 12 and Conference USA in 2023:
AAC
Additions: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
Losses: Cincinnati, Houston, UCF
Big 12
Additions: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF
Conference USA
Additions: Jacksonville State (FCS), Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston (FCS)
Losses: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
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Kiley McDaniel
The 2025 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 boards.
The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.
In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.
Which direction will the Nationals go — and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
Since this is a last-minute update on what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my mock draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.
Draft tracker: Results, analysis for every Day 1 pick
More coverage: Mock draft 3.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
1. Washington Nationals
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
There have been a lot of rumors flying around over the past few days about what is happening in the wake of the firing of GM Mike Rizzo.
The industry feeling is that what has changed is 1) Anderson is a little more likely to be the pick mostly because Holliday is now a little less likely to be the pick, and 2) taking a bigger cut is a real option, with Eli Willits the main cut-rate possibility, though Aiva Arquette has also been mentioned.
All but Willits are advised by Scott Boras, and he’ll never tip his hand until he has to; now is not the time yet. Nothing is decided here and price will be a factor. If I turned this in 15 minutes before the draft, the Nats might still not have made the decision, so I’ll stick with what seems most likely, even if I don’t feel great about it. Landon Harmon is a rumored later round, overslot target.
For context, a scouting director for a team picking in the top 10 said I shouldn’t feel confident about anything happening in the top three picks specifically, adding, “I’m hearing there’s wars happening in all of those rooms right now” (as of Friday night). I ran that by another director picking up high: “Yeah, we’re hearing the same thing.”
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
I’m going to stick with Doyle because he makes the most sense for what the Angels have proved they’re looking for in recent drafts: a polished, quick-moving college player who will come at a savings.
I’ve heard at least six players seriously connected to this pick in the past few days: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish and Willits. There are a couple more I’ve been told are under consideration who I’m not taking seriously as options here.
It could be any of these players based on final conversations and bonus pricing info on each player coming in at the last minute. Doyle has a real shot to slide to No. 9 or No. 10 if he doesn’t go here, so he is motivated to give a competitive number.
0:55
Liam Doyle’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
The hot rumor of the past few days is that Tyler Bremner will be the pick here at big savings, and that holds up to further analysis because, in style, Bremner and Hernandez (long connected to this pick) are pretty similar.
It’s pretty widely known that Anderson is the No. 1 player for Seattle and will be the pick if he gets here, which still has maybe a 20-30% chance of happening.
If Anderson isn’t here, I think the decision comes down to Bremner at the most savings, Irish at a little less savings or Hernandez at the least savings, broadly speaking. Some sources have said Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also in play here, but they seem like tertiary options.
I think Bremner having more support in the No. 11-15 area that was reflected in the last mock will raise his price a bit to where Hernandez will be the pick, but this one is also wide open at the moment and will come down to a last-minute bonus price check if Anderson isn’t available.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
There has been some waffling late in the process from sources who think maybe the Rockies wouldn’t pay the overslot price to get Holliday down here — but much of what I hear very late in the process is wrong or intentional misinformation, so I’ll stick with what I’ve been hearing for a literal year.
I think the other options for Colorado if Holliday doesn’t get here are all college pitchers: Anderson, Arnold and Witherspoon, with Willits and Arquette getting some mentions.
1:10
Ethan Holliday’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
Willits seems securely in play at the top two picks and possibly at No. 4, so the Cardinals landing him here would be considered a solid outcome. I think Anderson and Holliday are the primary targets for this pick and Willits is next up, with Arnold and Irish as the possible underslot options.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
It sounds like Hernandez or Willits will be the pick if either is here, so the Pirates are rooting for Seattle to either land Anderson or opt for a cheaper alternative to Hernandez.
Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette and Irish are believed to be the four leading options here. Arnold has the most late support, but this one might also come down to money.
I hope you feel sympathy for me having to do this in public when none of these teams know what it will do and won’t for hours.
1:05
Jamie Arnold’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
I think this will come down to Parker, Iris, and Billy Carlson — and I think Parker has the edge.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
I think the Jays will pick Parker if he gets here and will consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available here. This decision seems to come down to Arquette or Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 13
I’m getting some late-breaking info that Irish is more of a fit here than Hall, so shuffling a few picks that follow to accommodate for that.
Cincinnati seems to be the floor if Hernandez or Doyle slip, and otherwise the Reds seem to be the ceiling for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon and Carlson are also in the mix.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be No. 7 to No. 12 (or maybe No. 14). I think the White Sox really want to land the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob) but can’t get JoJo to this pick.
The White Sox have been all over high school hitters all spring, and Carlson gets the nod over Gavin Fien.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is picking up steam at this pick, and I think his floor is now Boston’s pick at No. 15. It’s a bit surprising he could go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner clearly has been getting interest in the top half of the first round that just hadn’t leaked out to the industry at large until late. I think this will be a college player, likely a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Brendan Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
A few names shuffled around late Sunday, and now one of the Rangers’ top targets will be available. Marek Houston is also in the mix here.
I think Hall and Carlson are the targets here, but neither will make it to the pick, so Cunningham will become the pick, narrowly over Josh Hammond. I was hearing Cunningham would fit more 20-30, and the late chatter is that he has multiple homes in the teens. As with the White Sox, the belief all spring was that the Rangers want a prep hitter here.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
In a last-minute update, I shuffled four players and Witherspoon fits here as a solid value.
Irish is in play at most picks starting at No. 2 all the way down to the middle of the first round, but I think his slide would stop here. The Giants have long been tied to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a long shot at this pick, but gone by their next one), with Andrew Fischer getting some love as well.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25
I think this pick will come down to Cunningham or Sean Gamble in this situation; Gamble could make it to their next pick.
The Rays are tied to prep position players for later picks and could pull a shocker, as I projected in my previous mock, by taking Jaden Fauske here.
I think Hall, Carlson and Cunningham are the main targets, but none of them is available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have a chance to land Fauske at their next pick.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
I’ll stick with Fien here as one of the steadiest projections all spring. It sounds like Tyler Bremner will be the pick if he gets here, but that’s now looking unlikely.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
Kilen fits the type of prospect the Twins have targeted for a while. I could see Houston, Caden Bodine or Gage Wood being options here, too.
Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
I think the Cubs are targeting in-game power here, and Hammond makes a lot of sense. They’ve scouted Quentin Young pretty hard this spring as well, but this is too early for that kind of risk. Xavier Neyens, Wehiwa Aloy and Wood all fit, as well.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
I think Cunningham is the target here, but he isn’t available in this scenario. Hammond and Bodine are also mentioned here and I think Slater de Brun will be the selection at Arizona’s next pick.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
LaViolette should go in one of the next three picks and fits Baltimore’s style. He won’t get to the Orioles’ next pick, but they may be able to float targets down there with their extra pool muscle, as covered in the previous mock.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
Summerhill has a very unclear and wide range of teams that are interested but could fit here. Daniel Pierce, Houston, Bodine and Coy James are all in the mix for this pick.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think LaViolette, Neyens, Southisene and Aloy are all in the mix here, along with possible underslot deals for Davalan or de Brun.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
It now looks like Bremner won’t get here, but the Braves have been tied to Wood for about a month. Otherwise, the hit-first shortstops like Houston and Pierce are tied here.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Hammond seems to be the target, but he doesn’t make it to K.C. in this edition. I think the Royals will take a prep pitcher with one of their high picks, likely either Watson or Fisher, and maybe another later on Day 1. Eyanson and Wood are two college arms being considered.
Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69
James has a good shot at being a Tiger, and some of Detroit’s primary options go right ahead of this spot in this scenario, so I think this could be a curveball pick to most viewers.
Fauske is another possibility here, along with Kruz Schoolcraft, Pierce, Watson, Dax Kilby (more at their next pick), de Brun (same), Southisene and Fischer.
Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
Rank: 45
There’s lots of late momentum for Eyanson here, which is counter to the history of A.J. Preller’s time making picks for the Padres, so I’m going out on a limb.
Kilby on a cut, Young, Schoolcraft, Alec Blair, Josh Owens and de Brun all seem like high schoolers in the mix here.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Philly normally takes high-ceiling high school players, but this is too good of a value to pass up. Matthew Fisher, Sean Gamble and Blair are the leading prep targets, and Fischer is also mentioned.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
Kane Kepley on a big cut, Devin Taylor on a smaller one, Kilby and Watson are all options here.
Note: No. 27 is the final pick of the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. You can read mock draft 3.0 for my thinking and potential targets for teams making the comp and second-round picks that follow and see the full draft order here.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
34. Detroit Tigers: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
37. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
39. New York Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
40: Los Angeles Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
43. Miami Marlins: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Athletics: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
49. Washington Nationals: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
64. Cleveland Guardians: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Dickinson, 2B, LSU
69. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Michigan State
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: Easton Carmichael, C, Oklahoma
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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