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The decision by House Republicans to write spending bills below the caps established in this month’s bipartisan debt ceiling deal sets the stage for a clash with Democrats in the Senate and White House — and heightens the odds of a government shutdown later in the year.

The debt limit legislation, negotiated between President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), featured an agreement to set new top lines on discretionary spending over the next two fiscal years. 

Yet McCarthy, under heavy pressure from his right flank, has since balked at those figures, arguing they’re not the target levels but merely represent a spending ceiling Congress cannot surpass. Behind Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas), chairwoman of the Appropriations Committee, Republicans intend to mark up their 2024 spending bills at lower, 2022 levels, estimated to cut an additional $120 billion in federal outlays.

Those cuts are a non-starter with Democrats, whose support will be needed to pass the appropriations bills into law and prevent a partial government shutdown on Oct. 1. 

The dynamics set Congress on a collision course in September over the size and scope of government spending — a debate complicated by the conservative threat for McCarthy to hold the party line on deficit reduction or face a challenge to his Speakership.  Close Thank you for signing up!

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Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the House minority leader, has said Democrats will oppose anything less than the agreed-upon debt ceiling levels. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), senior Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, said the GOP’s strategy “all but guarantees a shutdown.” And Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, delivered a similar warning, saying House Republicans will never win Democratic support for their spending cuts, but they might very well succeed in shuttering the government. 

“The Senate is going to mark up to the deal that was made. And so House Republicans are going to completely make themselves irrelevant [and] make their members vote on these deep, deep cuts, and it has no possibility of becoming law,” Aguilar told reporters Tuesday in the Capitol. 

The conservative threat to McCarthy’s power, he added, has created a situation where the tail is wagging the dog. 

“These are the deals that Kevin McCarthy has to make in order to hold the gavel,” he said. 

Muddling the issue is a disagreement between McCarthy and his conservative detractors over the precise nature of the concessions he made in January as he struggled to win their support for his Speakership. The hard-liners maintain McCarthy promised to fight for 2022 spending levels in 2024 and to refuse votes on any proposal above that level.

“That was the agreement in January: that the Speaker would not put legislation on the floor that exceeded 2022 spending levels,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said Tuesday. 

Yet McCarthy has disputed that account in no uncertain terms.  

“We never promised we’re going to be all at ’22 levels. I said we would strive to get to the ’22 level, or the equivalent of that amount in cuts,” the Speaker said earlier in the month as he defended the debt ceiling deal from the conservative critics.

That legislation, dubbed the Financial Responsibility Act (FRA), included an incentive to Congress to pass all 12 regular appropriations bills in a timely manner. If the appropriations are not made by Jan. 1, then any continuing resolution (CR) would have to cap spending at 99 percent of current levels — a 1 percent across-the-board cut that would affect even military spending. 

That threat is already spooking defense hawks, who are warning of the harm to national security in the age of great power competition, particularly with Russia and China. But a growing number of lawmakers appear increasingly resigned that a CR will be necessary, setting up yet another showdown between House Republicans and Senate Democrats. 

“My guess is we’ll go ahead and pass the CR at the 99 percent level,” said Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.). “And then if there’s a shutdown, it’ll be the Senate that shuts it down.”

But the Jan. 1 sequester date leaves some uncertainty about what would happen when the new fiscal year starts Oct. 1.

Some members of the House Appropriations Committee were already feeling the time crunch, and they now have even more pressure after Granger’s announcement on spending levels. Now, the House must quickly pass those bills, and the Democratic-controlled Senate — which is sure to reject the House GOP spending levels — will have to act.

“There is a prospect that we could be at an impasse come into September,” said Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), a subcommittee chairman on the House Appropriations 

“This governing majority of ours doesn’t need to be toying around with shutting down the government,” Womack.

McCarthy has also said he will not bring up any omnibus legislation that combines appropriations into one large package, further complicating the timeline. Congress has not passed all 12 regular appropriations bills on time since 1996. 

Many hard-line conservatives, for their part, say they’re not threatening to force a government shutdown to get the spending levels they want — at least not yet.

“We’re trying to get on the same team, Republicans, to focus on spending cuts. I don’t think anybody wants a shutdown. I sure don’t,” said Gaetz.

Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), a more moderate member of the House Appropriations Committee, called discussion of a shutdown “a little premature.” White House blasts Tuberville’s hold on military nominations Man survives lightning strike caught on video in NJ

Yet others are downplaying the severity of a shutdown, arguing the nation’s soaring debt poses an even greater threat to the nation’s economic well-being. 

“I’m not worried about a shutdown,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said. “The country’s going to be permanently shut down if we don’t get our spending under control. And I’m tired of hearing, ‘We’ll do it tomorrow.’ 

“We’re gonna do it now. Or attempt to.”

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‘Ghost’ Plume Found Beneath Oman May Explain India’s Ancient Tectonic Shift

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‘Ghost’ Plume Found Beneath Oman May Explain India’s Ancient Tectonic Shift

A long-hidden plume of magma beneath Oman’s Salma Plateau may have played a surprising role in shaping the Indian subcontinent’s ancient journey, researchers report. This “ghost” plume — hot material trapped beneath Earth’s thick crust — cannot erupt but may have shifted the Indian tectonic plate’s course during its dramatic collision with Eurasia tens of millions of years ago. First detailed in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters, the finding reveals a new class of deep mantle plumes that shape continents silently, without the typical signature of surface volcanoes.

Hidden ‘Ghost’ Plume Beneath Oman May Have Steered India’s Collision Path with Eurasia

As per a Live Science report, the plume was detected using seismic data from Oman’s dense sensor network. Under the leadership of geophysicist Simone Pilia, the group discovered that the plume altered the way sound waves moved through Earth’s layers, which in turn pointed to its presence. Unlike most mantle plumes, which rise and erupt through the oceanic plates, Dani is amagmatic and does not create surface eruptions because of the thick continental crust above the plume. This finding means that there may potentially be many hidden plumes lurking beneath continents.

The Dani plume is the first such non-eruptive plume beneath a continental plate, which is broadening scientists’ view of how mantle dynamics unfold out of sight. The researchers also calculated the movement of the Indian plate and found that it took a significant turn between 40 and 25 million years ago, which might have been affected by the shear stress created by the plume. The plume’s effects on topography are expected to be small regionally, but its geological role could be relatively large.

While plumes typically leave a visible volcanic trail—like Hawaii’s island chain—the Dani plume’s evidence may have been erased by subduction activity in the nearby Makran zone. Still, researchers say this finding opens the door to discovering more “ghost” plumes, particularly in regions with similar thick crusts, such as Africa. As seismic technologies advance, more silent subterranean forces shaping Earth’s history may come to light.

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Iran says it’s carried out ‘mighty and successful’ attack on US base – as Qatar air defences ‘thwart assault’

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Iran says it's carried out 'mighty and successful' attack on US base - as Qatar air defences 'thwart assault'

Iran claims it has carried out a “mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression” after launching missile attacks on a US military base in Qatar and Iraq.

The attack comes after the US dropped “bunker buster bombs” on three key nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend.

Iran’s response this evening is the latest escalation in tensions in the volatile region.

Qatar has said there were no casualties at the al Udeid base following the strikes and that its “air defences thwarted the attack and successfully intercepted the Iranian missiles”.

People in Qatar’s capital, Doha, had stopped and gazed up at the sky as missiles flew and interceptors fired.

Follow latest: Iran attacks US bases

Iran had announced on state television that it had attacked American forces stationed at the al Udeid airbase.

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A caption on screen called it “a mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression” as martial music played.

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Iran releases video after attack on US base

Initial reports claimed Iran had also targeted a base housing US troops in western Iraq, but a US military official later told Reuters news agency the attack in Qatar was the only one detected.

A US government official said the White House and US defence department was “closely monitoring” the potential threats to its base.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump was in the Situation Room in the White House with his team following the Iranian strikes.

Traces are seen in the sky over Qatar after Iran's armed forces targeted the al Udeid base. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Traces are seen in the sky over Qatar after Iran’s armed forces targeted the al Udeid base. Pic: Reuters

He later said in a post on Truth Social that the missiles were a “very weak response”, which the US “expected” and “very effectively countered”.

He added: “Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.

“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.

“Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a post on X: “We have not violated anyone’s rights, nor will we ever accept anyone violating ours, and we will not surrender to anyone’s violation; this is the logic of the Iranian nation.”

Read more:
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Why Iran might close a crucial waterway

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The attacks came shortly after Qatar closed its airspace as a precaution amid threats from Iran.

Just before the explosions, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: “We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.”

Kuwait and Bahrain briefly shut their airspaces after the attack, news agencies in each country reported.

Iraq also shut its airspace, while Oman Air suspended some flights in the region.

The Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways said it is rerouting several flights today and tomorrow due to restrictions in parts of the Middle East.

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US strikes: How much damage has been done to Iran’s nuclear facilities?

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US strikes: How much damage has been done to Iran's nuclear facilities?

Three of Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – were targeted in US airstrikes on 22 June.

The prime target of the attacks was Iran’s most advanced facility at Fordow, suspected of being used to enrich uranium close to what’s needed for a nuclear bomb.

Satellite images from the aftermath of the US strikes suggest at least six bombs were dropped there.

Satellite imagery of Fordow after the US bombing. Credit: Maxar
Image:
Satellite imagery of Fordow after the US bombing. Pic: Maxar Technologies

The secure nuclear facility, home to Iran’s main enrichment site, is buried deep under a mountain.

So exactly how much damage was done is unknown, perhaps even to Iran, which appears to have evacuated the site. The specific location of the strikes and the bombs used gives us an indication.

America used the 30,000-lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, or a GBU-57 – commonly known as a “bunker buster”.

The bunker buster is the only missile that had a chance of destroying the Fordow facility, and American planes were needed for them to be used.

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Blueprints from Iran’s Nuclear Archive, which date from before 2004 and were seized by Israeli spies in 2018, suggest the bombs targeted the tunnels under the Fordow site.

Blueprints of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant show tunnels running through the mountain. Pic: Google Earth
Image:
Blueprints of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant suggest tunnels run through the mountain. Pic: Google Earth

The access tunnels overground lead to a 250 metre long hall which is thought to contain the uranium enrichment centrifuges, and well as the location of what is thought to be ventilation shafts.

Iran is thought to have likely moved any enriched uranium from the facility before the strikes occurred. But if the ventilation shafts were hit, that would allow the bombs to penetrate as far as possible and hit the centrifuge hall itself.

Iran’s major nuclear facilities seriously damaged, if not completely destroyed


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Tom Clarke

Science and technology editor

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The loss of industrial-scale centrifuge “cascades” used to enrich uranium will certainly derail any imminent deadlines in weaponisation the Islamic Republic may have set itself – more on that below.

But it has already amassed a sizeable stockpile of highly enriched uranium and may even have already enriched some of it to the 90% or so needed to make fissile material necessary for a bomb.

And despite strikes on industrial scale facilities that have taken decades to generate that stockpile, the material itself weighs less than half a tonne.

Moving it, splitting it up, concealing it, is not beyond the wit of a nation that expected these assaults may be coming.

Iran’s nuclear programme is also more than its large-scale facilities. Iran has been developing nuclear expertise and industrial processes for decades. It would take more than a concerted bombing campaign to wipe that out.

The final steps to “weaponise” highly enriched uranium are technically challenging, but Iran was known to be working on them more than 20 years ago.

Iran also does not require industrial-scale facilities like those needed to enrich uranium, meaning they could be more easily concealed in a network of smaller, discrete lab-sized buildings.

But what’s far from clear is whether Iran had actually taken steps towards weaponisation in recent years.

Recent US intelligence assessments indicated that it hadn’t. Iran’s leaders knew that very significant moves towards making a bomb would be seen as a major escalation by its neighbours and the international community.

For a long time, a key deterrent to Iran developing a nuclear weapon has been an internal political one.

It’s possible of course that position may have been shifting and these latest strikes were designed to disarm a rapidly weaponising Iran.

But it’s also possible the attacks on its nuclear programme may be forcing a previously tentative government to push harder towards making a nuclear bomb.

Fordow is only one of three nuclear facilities targeted in America’s strike, however, and one of seven that have been targeted since the conflict began.

Natanz’s uranium enrichment facility, about 140 km south of Fordow, had been subject to multiple Israeli strikes before America’s advance.

Israeli raids targeted surface buildings, including stores of enriched uranium. However, post-strike radiation monitoring suggested there was little, if any, nuclear material there.

At the weekend, Americans dropped bunker-buster bombs there too, targeting thousands of enrichment centrifuges operating in bunkers below.

Pic: Maxar Technologies
Image:
Destruction at the Natanz Enrichment Complex from satellite imagery. Pic: Maxar Technologies

Then there is the Isfahan complex. Again, Israeli missiles destroyed a number of buildings there last week. And at the weekend, US cruise missiles targeted others, including the uranium conversion plant.

At the weekend, Americans also dropped bunker-buster bombs there, targeting thousands of enrichment centrifuges operating in bunkers below.

Esfahan facility. Pic: Maxar Technologies
Image:
Satellite imagery shows the impact on the Isfahan Nuclear Complex. facility. Pic: Maxar Technologies

Speaking from the White House after the attacks, Donald Trump said facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated”. But experts suggest it could take more to destroy it entirely.

“This is a very well-developed, long-standing programme with a lot of latent expertise in the country,” said Darya Dolzikova, a proliferation and nuclear security expert at RUSI, a UK defence and security thinktank

“I don’t think we’re talking about a full elimination at this point, certainly not by military means.”

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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