Flawed rent and tax forecasts fester wild ‘apocalypse’ predictions

Published

2 years ago

July 10, 2023

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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models.

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says.

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms.

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate.

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline.

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added.

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either.

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

UK

Lucy Letby: Defence calls for miscarriage of justice investigation as medics give alternative causes of death

Published

44 mins ago

February 4, 2025

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Lucy Letby: Defence calls for miscarriage of justice investigation as medics give alternative causes of death

A panel of international medical experts has given alternative causes of death in several cases against child serial killer Lucy Letby.

It comes as her defence lawyers announced they have asked for her case to be investigated as a miscarriage of justice.

Letby, 35, the UK’s most prolific child killer of modern times, is serving fifteen whole life terms in prison after she was convicted at Manchester Crown Court of murdering seven infants and attempting to murder seven others between June 2015 and June 2016.

Various methods were used to attack the babies while Letby worked as a nurse on the neonatal unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital.

One method was air being injected into the bloodstream which caused an air embolism, blocking the bloody supply and leading to sudden and unexpected collapses.

On Tuesday, retired neonatologist Dr Shoo Lee, who co-authored an academic paper on air embolisms (bubbles) in babies in 1989 which featured prominently during her trial, chaired a panel of 14 experts to compile an “impartial evidence-based report”.

Dr Lee said he believed his findings on skin mottling were misinterpreted by the prosecution. He said in a new paper he published in December 2024 that there were no cases of skin discolouration when air was injected into the veins.

At her trial in 2023, prosecutors pointed to skin discolouration in several of the victims as evidence that air had been injected into their veins by Letby.

“The notion that these cases are air embolism because they collapsed and because there were skin rashes has no basis in evidence. Let’s be clear about that,” Dr Lee said.

Lucy Letby latest: Experts reveal ‘new medical evidence’ questioning nurse’s guilt

The panel laid out alternative causes of death in many of the cases, including natural causes and poor medical care at Countess of Chester Hospital.

“We did not find any murders,” Dr Lee said. “In all cases, death or injury were due to natural causes or just bad medical care.”

Asked about the Countess of Chester Hospital, Dr Lee, a retired medic from Canada, said: “I would say if this was a hospital in Canada, it would be shut down. It would not be happening.”

A spokesperson at the Countess of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust said: “Due to the Thirlwall Inquiry and the ongoing police investigations, it would not be appropriate to comment further at this time.”

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) will now review all the evidence after an application from the defence to determine if the case should be referred back to the courts.

A CCRC spokesperson said: “We are aware that there has been a great deal of speculation and commentary surrounding Lucy Letby’s case, much of it from parties with only a partial view of the evidence.

“We ask that everyone remembers the families affected by events at the Countess of Chester Hospital between June 2015 and June 2016.

“We have received a preliminary application in relation to Ms Letby’s case, and work has begun to assess the application.”

Opening the press conference, MP Sir David Davis described Letby’s convictions as “one of the major injustices of modern times”.

Findings will be earth-shattering for babies’ parents

This must have been one of the most distressing mornings for the grieving parents of the babies who died in Chester.

A 10-month trial concluded their new borns were murdered by Lucy Letby.

Now they have been presented with a body of evidence gathered by some of the world’s leading neonatal experts that could and probably will put some doubt against her conviction.

Every single baby’s death has been forensically analysed: the allegations presented in court with the circumstances of each death against what the panel claims are the clinical facts in the case.

Dr Shoo Lee, the panel chair, approached Letby’s lawyers following her conviction in 2023. He was convinced his 1989 paper on neonatal deaths used as evidence in the case against Letby had been misinterpreted.

The team he has assembled to examine each death is a world leader in their own respective field.

For parents learning today these experts believe some of the baby deaths were preventable and not the result of a serial killer nurse will come as nothing less than earth-shattering.

This expert panel review of each case, if true, could point to yet another systemic failure of NHS maternity care.

But now it will be for the Criminal Cases Review Commission to decide if Letby’s case is investigated as a potential miscarriage of justice.

Last year Letby lost two bids to challenge her convictions at the Court of Appeal – in May for seven murders and seven attempted murders, and in October for the attempted murder of a baby girl, which she was convicted of by a different jury at a retrial.

In December, the former nurse’s barrister, Mark McDonald, said he would seek permission from the Court of Appeal to re-open her case on the grounds Dr Dewi Evans, the lead prosecution medical expert at her trial, was “not reliable”.

Dr Evans, a retired consultant paediatrician, said concerns regarding his evidence were “unsubstantiated, unfounded, inaccurate”.

In September a public inquiry into how Letby was able to commit her crimes began hearing evidence. Closing legal submissions are expected in March and the findings are expected to be published this autumn.

Detectives from Cheshire Constabulary are also continuing their review of the care of some 4,000 babies admitted to the Countess of Chester Hospital from January 2012 to the end of June 2016, while Letby worked as a neonatal nurse, there. It also includes two work placements at Liverpool Women’s Hospital in 2012 and 2015.

Letby has been interviewed under caution at HMP Bronzefield in Ashford, Surrey, in relation to the ongoing investigation into baby deaths and non-fatal collapses.

She maintains her innocence.

UK

Harvey Willgoose: Community in shock over teen’s school stabbing death

Published

44 mins ago

February 4, 2025

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Harvey Willgoose: Community in shock over teen's school stabbing death

At the gates of All Saints Catholic High School in Sheffield, the tributes to Harvey Willgoose continue to arrive.

Flowers bearing notes from friends and former teachers, balloons and cards, one woman even arrived with a shirt of his beloved Sheffield United.

The school remains closed but some youngsters were allowed through the locked gates by police to lay flowers at a small garden bed outside the main entrance.

Those coming to lay flowers all spoke of their shock at Harvey’s death.

Luisa Meco’s daughter knew Harvey from when they were both in nursery school and also attended All Saints.

She said: “It’s just shocking, really sad, heartbreaking.”

Her thoughts were with Harvey’s family. She said: “Obviously we’re all putting ourselves in their shoes and thinking ‘What on earth?’. It is hard to describe, it is just unreal.”

Luisa was also concerned with how her daughter would feel returning to school when it reopens.

“I will wait and see what she says and if she’s not comfortable, I will just have to keep her off for a couple of days,” she said.

She added: “It’s not something that’s easy to get over, it’s not an easy thing even as an adult to understand, how it could happen at school, so for 14 and 15-year-olds it’s even harder.”

Flowers have also been placed at the Bramall Lane home of Sheffield United.

The club said it was aware discussions were taking place about how best to pay tribute to Harvey.

A line of flowers had also appeared outside Harvey’s family home, on a quiet housing estate five miles from All Saints.

Not far from the home, a family friend, who saw Harvey on his way to school on the tram on Monday morning, said she was “in shock” at the death of a boy she considered to be “like a brother” to her.

The 17-year-old told Sky News that Harvey was “funny, he’s cheeky, he’s caring, just a lovely boy, he’d never hurt anyone. He’s never been nasty, he’s just not a nasty person at all”.

The girl and Harvey’s family went on numerous holidays together.

“We’re just so close. I can’t believe he has gone,” she said.

At the gates of All Saints, some families came to look at the tributes and reflect.

Brenda Bartholomew’s granddaughter witnessed the incident on Monday lunchtime.

“This should just not be happening,” she said.

UK

Actor and comedian Brian Murphy dies aged 92

Published

44 mins ago

February 4, 2025

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Actor and comedian Brian Murphy dies aged 92

Actor and comedian Brian Murphy has died aged 92.

He was known for his role in the 1970s sitcoms Man About The House and George And Mildred.

News of his passing was shared by his wife Hi-de-Hi! actress Linda Regan.

Posting a picture of her kissing her husband, she said: “My love for you will never die. RIP sweetheart.”

He died on Sunday morning at his home in Kent, with his wife of 35 years by his side.

In a statement, she said: “I was lucky to have in my lifetime found my soulmate. Brian who I will love forever!”

Agent and friend Thomas Bowington described Murphy as a “truly joyful and profoundly good-hearted man”.

Murphy first came to prominence playing landlord George Roper in Man About The House, starring alongside the late Yootha Joyce.

The show began in 1973 and was considered controversial for the time because it featured two single women living with a man.

When it ended in 1976, Murphy and Joyce starred in the spin-off, George And Mildred, which ran for five series until 1979.

He also starred as Alvin Smedley in Last Of The Summer Wine.

Born on the Isle of Wight, Murphy was a member of the Theatre Workshop, founded by Joan Littlewood, and was a jobbing actor before appearing in TV shows including Z-Cars.

In 1993, he starred in the first major stage version of the HG Wells science fiction classic The Invisible Man.

More recently, Murphy appeared in TV shows including the BBC’s Holby City and ITV’s Benidorm.

He is survived by his wife and two sons.