Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the decision to add or subtract from a team is usually made by the standings.
Every year, however, there are bubble teams that are close to the playoff race but haven’t necessarily proved themselves in the win/loss column, leaving their front offices with a tougher decision to make.
ESPN has identified eight such teams, and with the Aug. 1 deadline exactly two weeks away, time is running out.
“They’re really making decisions the last weekend before the trade deadline,” Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said. “You wait as long as you can.
“You always want to make the playoffs because once you make it, we know anything can happen. However, and I’m just speaking for me, you have to be realistic with yourself. Do you have a club that’s good enough to advance, or in your heart, do you really not feel that way? It’s an important distinction.”
Adding to the challenge this season is the fact that the first-place team in the AL Central is hovering around .500, while the last-place team in the AL East is six games over. That will undoubtedly lead to varying degrees of going for it or electing to trade away veterans. And, according to Dombrowski, it makes it even more important for front-office decision-makers to understand their own team’s circumstances rather than relying just on a number of games they trail in the standings.
“Every market is different,” he said. “Every owner is different. Every team is different. You’re not the unilateral decision-maker. What happens if you’re with a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years? That can be huge. That can be different than a team that’s in it all the time but is having a down year.”
With all that in mind, ESPN employed the services of a current MLB assistant general manager (whose team is not on the bubble) to help decide the fate of our eight bubble teams. Here’s his take.
In our exec’s words: The Twins could use help against left-handed pitching, but mostly they need to be healthy. If their best players act like it, they can make a run, but there’s no need to trade away their best prospects.
In our exec’s words: The Guardians simply aren’t going to replace injured starters Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill (or Triston McKenzie) with blockbuster deals. If they get healthy, they’ll have a shot. They stood pat last year and won the division easily.
“We’re a small-market team,” GM Mike Chernoff said. “Unlike some other places, where you’re constantly thinking ‘How do we go for it in the moment,’ we have to be thinking about how do we sustain our competitiveness.
“You’ve seen over the years, we’ve tried to thread the needle in how we do it. Thankfully it’s been successful in the past.”
In our exec’s words: When it comes to Shohei Ohtani, the Angels won’t show their hand until the last minute. If not Ohtani — or in addition to him — others will be moved.
“With Mike Trout out, it’s made their decision easier,” another executive added. “It would have been a lot tougher to trade Ohtani if [Trout] wasn’t hurt. We’ll see.”
Needs: Hitting, especially an offensive upgrade at second base
In our exec’s words: This is another team whose best players simply have to show up — including Julio Rodriguez. But that doesn’t mean the Mariners should stand pat. Offensive production at both second base and designated hitter has been a problem.
In our exec’s words: The Tigers might work around the edges with their future in mind, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris is new on the job. He’s likely not in go-for-it mode, but he doesn’t have to do a major sell-off either.
“On balance if a team is three to five games back, more than they used to, you’ll see teams trying to hang in there,” another executive added.
In our exec’s words: The Mets can always dip back into free agency during the winter. Sending out feelers for any of their veterans, including Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, makes sense.
“They’re not winning this year,” another executive said. “I’m not sure if Steve Cohen can be convinced of it, but I am.”
It’s been a weird year for them, but Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger are about as good as it gets if they’re on the market. Maybe the Cubs will stand pat, thinking Cincinnati will come back to the pack. But Milwaukee will be tough.
“At the end of the day, you’re making a decision around this year’s playoff odds and future years’ playoff odds,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said. “The exact record doesn’t matter if you get it down to that granular level, but it doesn’t feel very comfortable being under .500 and in a supercompetitive position.
“There’s playoff odds, and then there’s World Series odds. I don’t think there’s much history of teams being under .500 winning the World Series.”
In our exec’s words: When has Padres general manager A.J. Preller ever stood pat? This might be the year. There’s no way the Padres can add again — not with a depleted farm system and their place in the standings — but there’s no reason to trade away any of their major players either. Maybe they can make a second-half run, but there’s always next year.
OCEANPORT, N.J. — Journalism launched a dramatic rally to win the $1 million Haskell Invitational on Saturday at Monmouth Park.
It was Journalism’s first race since the Triple Crown. He was the only colt to contest all three legs, winning the Preakness while finishing second to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
Heavily favored at 2-5 odds, Journalism broke poorly under jockey Umberto Rispoli and wound up trailing the early leaders. He kicked into gear rounding the final turn to find Gosger and Goal Oriented locked in a dogfight for the lead. It appeared one of them would be the winner until Journalism roared down the center of the track to win by a half-length.
“You feel like you’re on a diesel,” Rispoli said. “He’s motoring and motoring. You never know when he’s going to take off. To do what he did today again, it’s unbelievable.”
Gosger held on for second, a neck ahead of Goal Oriented.
The Haskell victory was Journalism’s sixth in nine starts for Southern California-based trainer Michael McCarthy, and earned the colt a berth in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 1.
DOVER, Del. — Chase Elliott took advantage of heavy rain at Dover Motor Speedway to earn the pole for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race.
Elliott and the rest of the field never got to turn a scheduled practice or qualifying lap on Saturday because of rain that pounded the concrete mile track. Dover is scheduled to hold its first July race since the track’s first one in 1969.
Elliott has two wins and 10 top-five finishes in 14 career races at Dover.
Logano is set to become the youngest driver in NASCAR history with 600 career starts.
Logano will be 35 years, 1 month, 26 days old when he hits No. 600 on Sunday at Dover Motor Speedway. He will top seven-time NASCAR champion and Hall of Famer Richard Petty by six months.
The midseason tournament that pays $1 million to the winner pits Ty Dillon vs. John Hunter Nemechek and Reddick vs. Gibbs in the head-to-head challenge at Dover.
The winners face off next week at Indianapolis. Reddick is the betting favorite to win it all, according to Sportsbook.
DOVER, Del. — NASCAR race team owner Denny Hamlin remained undeterred in the wake of another setback in court, vowing “all will be exposed” in the scheduled December trial as part of 23XI Racing’s federal antitrust suit against the auto racing series.
A federal judge on Thursday rejected a request from 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports to continue racing with charters while they battle NASCAR in court, meaning their six cars will race as open entries this weekend at Dover, next week at Indianapolis and perhaps longer than that in a move the teams say would put them at risk of going out of business.
U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell denied the teams’ bid for a temporary restraining order, saying they will make races over the next couple of weeks and they won’t lose their drivers or sponsors before his decision on a preliminary injunction.
Bell left open the possibility of reconsidering his decision if things change over the next two weeks.
After this weekend, the cars affected may need to qualify on speed if 41 entries are listed – a possibility now that starting spots have opened.
The case has a Dec. 1 trial date, but the two teams are fighting to be recognized as chartered for the current season, which has 16 races left. A charter guarantees one of the 40 spots in the field each week, but also a base amount of money paid out each week.
“If you want answers, you want to understand why all this is happening, come Dec. 1, you’ll get the answers that you’re looking for,” Hamlin said Saturday at Dover Motor Speedway. “All will be exposed.”
23XI, which is co-owned by retired NBA great Michael Jordan, and FRM filed their federal suit against NASCAR last year after they were the only two organizations out of 15 to reject NASCAR’s extension offer on charters.
Jordan and FRM owner Bob Jenkins won an injunction to recognize 23XI and FRM as chartered for the season, but the ruling was overturned on appeal earlier this month, sending the case back to Bell.
Hamlin, a three-time Daytona 500 winner driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, co-owns 23XI with Jordan and said they were prepared to send Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace and Riley Herbst to the track each week as open teams. They sought the restraining order Monday, claiming that through discovery they learned NASCAR planned to immediately begin the process of selling the six charters which would put “plaintiffs in irreparable jeopardy of never getting their charters back and going out of business.”
Hamlin said none of the setbacks have made him second-guess the decision to file the lawsuit.
“Dec. 1 is all that matters. Mark your calendar,” Hamlin said. “I’d love to be doing other things. I’ve got a lot going on. When I get in the car (today), nothing else is going to matter other than that. I always give my team 100%. I always prepare whether I have side jobs, side hustles, more kids, that all matters, but I always give my team all the time that they need to make sure that when I step in, I’m 100% committed.”
Reddick, who has a clause that allows him to become a free agent if the team loses its charter, declined comment Saturday on all questions connected to his future and the lawsuit. Hamlin also declined to comment on Reddick’s future with 23XI Racing.
Reddick, one of four drivers left in NASCAR’s $1 million In-season Challenge, was last year’s regular-season champion and raced for the Cup Series championship in the season finale. But none of the six drivers affected by the court ruling are locked into this year’s playoffs.
Making the field won’t be an issue this weekend at Dover as fewer than the maximum 40 cars are entered. But should 41 cars show up anywhere this season, someone slow will be sent home and that means lost revenue and a lost chance to win points in the standings.
“Nothing changes from my end, obviously, and nothing changes from inside the shop,” Front Row Motorsports driver Zane Smith said. “There’s not typically even enough cars to worry about transferring in.”
Smith, 24th in the standings and someone who would likely need a win to qualify for NASCAR’s playoffs, said he stood behind Jenkins in his acrimonious legal fight that has loomed over the stock car series for months.
“I leave all that up to them,” Smith said, “but my job is to go get the 38 the best finish I can.”