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It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.

On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.

When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.

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Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.

But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.

The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.

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The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.

The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.

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Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.

Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.

But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.

Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.

Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.

This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.

The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.

Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.

Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.

And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?

There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.

Humiliation for Tories in Somerset

The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.

The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.

The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.

This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.

Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.

That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.

Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.

Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.

Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.

Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.

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Man arrested on suspicion of double murder after elderly couple killed in St Helens fire

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Man arrested on suspicion of double murder after elderly couple killed in St Helens fire

A 31-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after an elderly couple died following a fire at their home in St Helens.

Peter Eric Greener, 77, known as Eric, and his partner Sheila Jackson, 83, were caught in the blaze at their home on South John Street in the early hours of Tuesday.

Mr Greener died on Wednesday, while Ms Jackson died on Thursday.

Eric Greener. Pic: Merseyside Police
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Eric Greener. Pic: Merseyside Police

Sheila Jackson. Pic: Merseyside Police
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Sheila Jackson. Pic: Merseyside Police

Merseyside Police said an accelerant was used to start the fire.

On Sunday, the force said the suspect from St Helens had been arrested on suspicion of murder and remains in custody for questioning.

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Detective Superintendent Rachel Wilson said: “Although an arrest has been made, I would like to take this opportunity to remind people to pass on information directly to police or anonymously via Crimestoppers, and not to comment or post in any way which jeopardises this ongoing work.”

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DS Wilson said “extensive enquiries” continue.

She added: “And to that end we are still appealing for anyone with information to come forward, particularly if you live in the area of South John Street and recall seeing or hearing anything suspicious at around the time of the incident.

“Please do not assume what you know has already been reported to us, as we can quickly make that assessment.”

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How e-bike riders are doing double the speed limit – and many of them work for fast food delivery firms

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How e-bike riders are doing double the speed limit - and many of them work for fast food delivery firms

It’s lunchtime on Birmingham’s New Street. 

Close to its many restaurants, food delivery riders are congregating on their bikes.

The area is packed with shoppers and workers.

PC Paige Gartlan is approaching with other officers. She’s on the lookout for illegally modified e-bikes – and she knows she’ll find them here.

“You can physically tell by looking at the bike that it’s generally going to be illegal – the battery pack is taped on to the sides and generally the size of the motor that’s on the back wheel,” she explains.

Sky News has been invited on an operation by West Midlands Police to find these bikes and get them off the streets.

PC Gartlan has been hit by one before. She’s had to tackle a rider to the floor after he drove into her.

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Within minutes, she’s spotted a suspicious-looking bike. The rider makes a run for it – followed by plain-clothed officers.

PC Gartlan tests the bike – it’s showing a top speed of 52km/hr on the speedometer – just over 30mph.

PC Paige Gartlan with a seized e-bike
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PC Paige Gartlan with a seized e-bike

The speed limit for e-bikes in the UK is 15.5mph when using electric power for assistance.

I look up the street and another two riders have been detained. In less than an hour, officers have confiscated four bikes – all were being ridden by fast food delivery drivers.

The commotion is attracting a lot of attention.

“They are dangerous,” Sandra, who has just finished work, tells me.

Demoz had his bike taken by police
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Demoz had his bike taken by police

She’s stood watching the riders being questioned. She says she’s had near-misses herself and is worried for the safety of the elderly and children.

It’s not just West Midlands police officers here – immigration officials are carrying out checks too. They’re involved in a nationwide operation, which has seen more than 7,000 arrests in the last year – a 50% increase on last year.

Matthew Foster, the immigration enforcement lead officer for the West Midlands, tells me they’ve already found one individual who has entered the UK unlawfully.

“He’s been detained,” he says, “to affect his removal from the UK.”

Further down the street, police are loading illegally modified bikes on to a van – they’re destined to be crushed. One of them had belonged to Demoz.

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A e-bike that was seized by police in West Midlands
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An e-bike seized by West Midlands Police

He’s on his way home, carrying a big box with the logo of one of the main fast food delivery firms on it.

He tells me he used to have an illegal bike, but he thought his new one was legal.

“I make a mistake, I have to say sorry, I will do better for the future,” he says.

I get in touch with the big delivery firms; Deliveroo, Uber Eats, and Just Eat.

Their representatives say they constantly remind workers of their safety obligations, and that they’re all working closely with the government to increase security checks on riders.

As he leaves, Demoz, now bike-free, tells me he’s thinking of changing his job.

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I can’t help feel Harry’s team are trying to push the reset button – here’s why

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I can't help feel Harry's team are trying to push the reset button - here's why

Watching pictures of Prince Harry in Angola this week took me back to 2019, when we were there for his first visit following in Princess Diana’s footsteps.

The pictures on Wednesday looked so similar; his effortless interactions with people who face the daily dangers of landmines, and his obvious passion to help a charity that he cares deeply about.

Of course so much has happened in the six years since then, but with other headlines this week, I couldn’t help but feel like we could be looking at the beginning of a reset for Harry.

It started last Saturday night, as the story emerged of a meeting between the King’s communications secretary, Harry’s new London-based head of PR, and Harry’s most senior aide in America.

Three people you may not have heard of, but a meeting that was quickly described as “peace talks”.

File photo dated 12/12/18 of King Charles III, then Prince of Wales, and the Duke of Sussex during a discussion about violent youth crime at a forum held at Clarence House in London. The Duke of Sussex's relationship with the King remains "distant", with Harry's letters and calls to his father going unanswered, sources have said. Issue date: Tuesday April 15, 2025.
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The King and Prince Harry in 2018. Pic: PA

The pictures of the get-together were being sold for thousands of pounds by the paper that ran them, just one indication of the global fascination about whether father and son may be on the road to reconciliation.

Neither side are willing to go there when you ask what exactly they talked about, although I suspect some of it was much more practical than about trying to mend this fractured relationship.

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Things like trying to avoid unnecessary negative stories, for example, the kind where Harry is accused of snubbing his father because they just happen to be doing jobs on the same day.

Prince Harry meets landmine victim Sandra Tigica in Angola in 2019, who Princess Diana met on her visit to Angola in 1997.
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Prince Harry meets landmine victim Sandra Tigica in Angola in 2019, who Princess Diana met on her visit to Angola in 1997

It’s tricky for Harry’s camp to avoid such a situation when they don’t have sight of the King’s diary.

There’s also been the chatter about who may, or may not, have leaked the meeting.

There has been speculation around why they were out on a balcony, and who spotted the photographer in the park.

But whether it was a leak, or just a really good spot from a journalist or photographer, it’s not a bad thing for either side that we’re now all talking about whether father and son may be close to patching things up.

It did however raise other questions, about what it means for Prince William and his relationship with his brother.

So far there have been no indications of any meeting between William’s team and that of his brother.

The feelings of William also, you may think, a consideration for the King.

File photo dated 12/12/18 of King Charles III, then Prince of Wales, and the Duke of Sussex during a discussion about violent youth crime at a forum held at Clarence House in London. The Duke of Sussex's relationship with the King remains "distant", with Harry's letters and calls to his father going unanswered, sources have said. Issue date: Tuesday April 15, 2025.
Image:
The King and Prince Harry in 2018. Pic: PA

The unexpected headlines around Harry just kept coming, as on Tuesday he popped up in Angola.

His second visit there, this time with no press pack in tow.

So why the surprise visit?

Harry has worked with the Halo Trust for some time, and it’s clearly still a priority for them to highlight the dangers faced by those living with the potential dangers of landmines in Angola.

But it also feels like part of a push to get Harry out on more public engagements.

I’ve been told that since moving away from the UK he has continued to have regular contact with those charities with which he’s maintained ties, but being on the phone or a video call, isn’t the same as physically being there in person.

We saw something similar with his trip to China with Travalyst earlier this year, some may argue not the best choice of destination, but another example of wanting to get him physically out on visits to reinforce publicly those connections with causes that matter so much to him.

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Prince Harry follows in Diana’s footsteps

For some months now it’s felt like Meghan has regained an element of control over how she wants to be seen.

Just look at her social media accounts and the success of her “As Ever” brand.

Whether Harry for the first time would step on to the social media scene with his own public account we wait to see, although the idea of his own commercial project is more likely, with suggestions something may be in the pipeline, we wait and see what.

After a constant flow of stories in recent months relating to court cases or his ongoing row with his family, this week has felt different.

A lot has been made about Harry and Meghan establishing a new “court” and what lies behind their decision to hire new people, five years after they stepped away from royal life.

There are of course elements of the recent past that it is impossible to erase, even Harry, in his recent interview talked of how he would “love reconciliation with my family” but added, “Of course, some members of my family will never forgive me for writing a book. Of course, they will never forgive me for… lots of things.”

But it does feel like their new team are tentatively attempting to push the reset button; getting Harry out on more engagements just one way they hope to focus our minds back on to what he has always done best.

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