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It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.

On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.

When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.

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Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.

But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.

The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.

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The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.

The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.

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Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.

Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.

But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.

Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.

Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.

This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.

The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.

Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.

Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.

And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?

There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.

Humiliation for Tories in Somerset

The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.

The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.

The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.

This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.

Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.

That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.

Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.

Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.

Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.

Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.

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‘Rapper’ who murdered schoolboy recalled to prison after ‘boasting about his violent crime’, Probation Service says

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'Rapper' who murdered schoolboy recalled to prison after 'boasting about his violent crime', Probation Service says

The man who served 14 years in jail for the murder of schoolboy Jimmy Mizen has been recalled to prison for breaching his licence conditions.

It follows reporting in The Sun newspaper that Jake Fahri, 35, was a drill rapper releasing music under the name TEN, who conceals his identity with a balaclava, and was played on BBC 1Xtra.

A Probation Service spokesperson said: “Our thoughts are with Jimmy Mizen’s family who deserve better than to see their son’s murderer shamelessly boasting about his violent crime.”

Jimmy’s father Barry told Sky News: “We’re not gloating or anything, in a way it’s quite sad.”

His son bled to death after Fahri threw an oven dish at him in a south London bakery on 10 May 2008.

The dish shattered on his chin and severed an artery in the schoolboy’s neck.

Fahri was 19 when he was given a life sentence in 2009 with a minimum term of 14 years and was released on licence in June 2023.

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His music was played on BBC 1Xtra less than 18 months later, the Sun reported, adding that DJ Theo Johnson named him an “up-and-coming star”.

Undated Family handout photo of 16-year-old Jimmy Mizen. Comedian Harry Hill will today present the keys of two minibuses in memory of the murdered schoolboy. Just days before the anniversary of the teenager's death on May 10, Hill will hadn over the keys of the "Jimmybuses" which will help Scouts travel around the UK.
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Jimmy Mizen. Pic: PA

Jimmy’s father earlier said he and his wife Margaret were “stunned into silence” when they were told about Fahri’s music, which often features violent themes.

In one song, which appears to reference Jimmy’s death, he raps about “sharpening” a blade.

“Judge took a look at me, before the trial even started he already knows he’s gonna throw the book at me,” the lyrics say.

Another track includes the lines: “See a man’s soul fly from his eyes and his breath gone… I wanted more, it made it less wrong. Seeing blood spilled same floor he was left on.”

The BBC has said the artist’s tracks do not feature on any BBC playlists, and that a track which appeared to reference Jimmy’s death had never been played on its channels.

A spokesman for the broadcaster added there were “no further plans to play his music”, adding: “We were not aware of his background and we in no way condone his actions.”

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A Probation Service spokesperson said: “All offenders released on licence are subject to strict conditions. As this case shows, we will recall them to prison if they break the rules.”

Jimmy’s parents founded the Mizen Foundation after their son’s death. The charity helps young people in London who are escaping violence.

Mr Mizen said: “It appears that if he’s been recalled to prison, he must’ve breached his licence conditions

“What happens next, we’ve absolutely no idea.”

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Madeleine McCann suspect won’t face charges for foreseeable future, prosecutor tells Sky News

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Madeleine McCann suspect won't face charges for foreseeable future, prosecutor tells Sky News

The man suspected of abducting Madeleine McCann won’t face any charges in the foreseeable future, a prosecutor has told Sky News.

German drifter Christian B, who cannot be fully identified under his country’s privacy law, is expected to be freed from an unrelated jail sentence this year while police in three countries continue to search for evidence against him.

Prosecutor Hans Christian Wolters said: “There is currently no prospect of an indictment in the Maddie case.

“As things stand, the accused Christian B’s imprisonment will end in early September.”

Madeleine, aged three, was asleep with her younger twin siblings in the family’s Portuguese rented holiday apartment before mother Kate discovered her missing at around 10pm on 3 May, 2007.

Her parents were dining nearby on the complex with friends and taking turns to check on all their sleeping children every half an hour.

A man, who is a suspect in the disappearance of British toddler Madeleine McCann in Portugal, stands next to his lawyer Friedrich Fuelscher at his trial on unrelated sexual assault charges in Braunschweig, Germany, October 2, 2024. Christian B., is charged with three counts of aggravated rape and two counts of sexual abuse of children in Portugal between June 2007 and December 2000. Moritz Frankenberg/Pool via REUTERS
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Christian B at his trial on unrelated sexual assault charges in Germany last year. Pic: Reuters

Madeleine’s disappearance has become the world’s most mysterious missing child case.

Philipp Marquort, one of Christian B’s defence lawyers, welcomed the prosecutor’s pessimism about bringing charges.

He said: “This confirms the suspicions that we have repeatedly expressed, namely that there is no reliable evidence against our client.

“We regret that we have not yet been granted access to the investigation files. We have not yet been able to effectively counter the public prejudice arising from statements made by the prosecutor’s office.”

Christian B, 47, is in jail and coming to the end of his sentence for the rape of an elderly American woman in Praia da Luz, the Portuguese resort where Madeleine disappeared.

In October, he was acquitted on a series of rape and indecent assault charges after a non-jury trial in Germany, in which several references were made to his status as the main suspect in the Madeleine case.

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File photo dated 30/04/17 of Kate and Gerry McCann, whose daughter Madeleine disappeared from a holiday flat in Portugal seventeen years ago. They have released a statement on the 17th anniversary of her disappearance, saying "the absence still aches". Earlier this week, it was confirmed that up to a further ..192,000 has been granted by the Home Office for the Scotland Yard investigation into Madeleine's disappearance. Issue date: Friday May 3, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLICE Portugal. Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire....
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Kate and Gerry McCann. Pic: PA

The prosecutor said he was awaiting the court’s written judgment before launching an appeal against the acquittal. He believes the trial judges were biased against the prosecution.

If successful, he could apply for a new arrest warrant for Christian B to keep him in custody until a retrial with new judges.

He said: “We hope that the Federal Court of Justice will decide before the end of the accused’s imprisonment. If the Federal Court follows our legal opinion, we could apply for a new arrest warrant for the accused’s offences, so that the accused would then remain in custody beyond September 2025.

Mr Marquort said the defence team would oppose the prosecution’s appeal against the acquittal.

Prosecutor Mr Wolters has said in the past that he believes Madeleine is dead and that Christian B was responsible for her death. The suspect denies any involvement.

The case against Christian B is purely circumstantial; he’s alleged to have confessed to a friend that he abducted Madeleine, he has convictions for sex crimes against children, he was living in the area at the time, his mobile phone was close by when the young girl vanished and he re-registered one of his vehicles the next day.

The prosecutor won’t say what evidence he has to convince him Madeleine is dead, but he admitted he is still trying to find forensic evidence to link Christian B to the girl.

Christian B is acquitted of sex attacks not related to the Madeleine McCann case
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Christian B coming to the end of his sentence for the rape of an elderly woman

Jim Gamble, former head of the UK Child Exploitation and Online Protection centre, said he had expected the prosecutor to charge Christian B soon.

“He’s implied the whole way through that he has something more than the public are aware of,” he said.

“He’s made fairly definitive statements about whether Madeleine is alive or dead so you would expect their strategy to have been to charge him sooner rather than later.

“From what he’s said today I wonder if we’re witnessing the re-positioning of something to manage the disappointment that’ll come.”

Mr Wolters, who is based in Braunschweig, Lower Saxony, is investigating the case with the help of Portuguese police and detectives from Scotland Yard.

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Man arrested after death of woman and two-year-old girl found with serious injuries in Ashford, Surrey

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Man arrested after death of woman and two-year-old girl found with serious injuries in Ashford, Surrey

A man has been arrested after the death of a woman in her 20s and a two-year-old girl was found with serious injuries in Surrey.

The man, in his 30s, has been detained on suspicion of murder and attempted murder, Surrey Police said.

Officers went to a property in Woodthorpe Road, Ashford, at 1.15pm on Thursday following a report of concern for safety.

The woman and child were found at the address with serious injuries and despite treatment from paramedics, the woman died at the scene.

The child was taken to hospital.

Officers said the victim and the suspect were known to each other.

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A forensics officer at the scene at Imtech House on Woodthorpe Road in Ashford, Surrey, after a woman in her 20s died and a two-year-old girl was found with serious injuries. A man in his 30s has been arrested on suspicion of murder and attempted murder. Picture date: Friday January 17, 2025.
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Pic: PA

An investigation, led by the Surrey and Sussex Police Major Crime Team, is under way and inquiries remain ongoing, police said.

Senior Investigating Officer DCI Kimball Edey said specialist officers “are working around the clock to gather as much information as possible,” and that the force’s “thoughts are with the family and friends of the victims at this unbelievably difficult time”.

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