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It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.

On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.

When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.

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Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.

But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.

The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.

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The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.

The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.

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Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.

Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.

But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.

Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.

Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.

This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.

The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.

Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.

Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.

And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?

There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.

Humiliation for Tories in Somerset

The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.

The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.

The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.

This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.

Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.

That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.

Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.

Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.

Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.

Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.

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Passengers travelling to Heathrow Airport face delays on M4 after car catches fire in tunnel

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Passengers travelling to Heathrow Airport face delays on M4 after car catches fire in tunnel

Passengers travelling to Heathrow Airport are facing delays on the road after a vehicle caught fire in a tunnel.

“Due to an earlier vehicle fire, road access to Terminals 2 and 3 is partially restricted,” the airport said in a post on X shortly before 7am.

“Passengers are advised to leave more time travelling to the airport and use public transport where possible.

“We apologise for the disruption caused.”

AA Roadwatch said one lane was closed and there was “queueing traffic” due to a vehicle fire on Tunnel Road “both ways from Terminals 2 and 3 to M4 Spur Road (Emirates roundabout)”.

“Congestion to the M4 back along the M4 Spur, and both sides on the A4. Down to one lane each way through one tunnel…,” it added.

National Highways: East said in an update: “Traffic officers have advised that the M4 southbound spur Heathrow in Greater London between the J4 and J4A has now been reopened.”

The agency warned of “severe delays on the approach” to the airport, recommended allowing extra time to get there and thanked travellers for their patience.

The London Fire Brigade said in a post on X just before at 7.51am it was called “just before 3am” to a car fire in a tunnel near HeathrowAirport.

“Firefighters attended and extinguished the fire, which involved a diesel-powered vehicle. No one was hurt and the airport has now confirmed the tunnel has re-opened.”

Travellers writing on social media reported constrasting experiences, with @ashleyark calling it “complete chaos on all surrounding roads”, but @ClaraCouchCASA said she “went to T5 and got the express to T3”, describing the journey as “very easy and no time delay at all. 7am this morning. Hope this helps others”.

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You can receive Breaking News alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News App. You can also follow @SkyNews on X or subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.

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Man arrested on suspicion of murder after woman shot dead in Talbot Green, South Wales

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Man arrested on suspicion of murder after woman shot dead in Talbot Green, South Wales

A man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after a 40-year-old woman was shot dead in South Wales.

The woman was found with serious injuries just after 6pm on Sunday and died at the scene despite the efforts of emergency services.

She was discovered in the Green Park area of Talbot Green, a town about 15 miles west of Cardiff.

A 42-year-old local man is in police custody.

Detective Chief Inspector James Morris said: “I understand the concern this will cause the local community, and I want to reassure people that a team of experienced detectives are already working at pace to piece together the events of last night.”

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South Wales Police said a number of crime scenes have been set up and road closures are in place.

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Drivers ‘confused’ by transition to electric vehicles, ministers warned

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Drivers 'confused' by transition to electric vehicles, ministers warned

UK drivers are “confused” by the country’s electric car transition, ministers are being warned.

Although most drivers are not hostile towards electric vehicles (EVs), many are confused about what changes are coming and when, according to new research from the AA.

In a survey of more than 14,000 AA members, 7% thought the government was banning the sale of used petrol and diesel cars.

Around a third thought manual EVs exist, despite them all being automatic.

More than one in five said they would never buy an EV.

The government’s plan for increasing the number of electric vehicles being driven in the UK focuses heavily on increasing the supply of the vehicles.

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What you can do to reach net zero

In 2024, at least 22% of new cars and 10% of new vans sold by each manufacturer in the UK had to be zero-emission, which generally means pure electric.

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Each year, those percentages will rise, reaching 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans in 2030.

Manufacturers will face fines of £15,000 per vehicle if electric vehicle sales fall short of 28% of total production this year.

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By 2035, all new cars and vans will be required to be fully zero emission, according to the Department for Transport.

Second-hand diesel and petrol cars will still be allowed to be sold after this date, and their fuel will still be available.

There are more EVs – but will people buy them?

In February, 25% of new cars were powered purely by battery and in January, they made up 21% of all new cars registered in the UK.

But despite the growth of electric sales, manufacturers continue to warn that the market will not support the growth required to hit government EV targets, and called for consumer incentives and the extension of tax breaks.

The AA suggested the government’s plan focuses on “supply but does little to encourage demand for EVs”.

It called on ministers to co-ordinate a public awareness campaign alongside the motoring industry which directly targets drivers who doubt the viability of EVs.

“Our message to government is more needs to be done to make EVs accessible for everyone,” said Jakob Pfaudler, AA chief executive.

Which? head of consumer rights Sue Davis said: “When it comes to making sustainable choices such as switching to an electric car, our research shows that people are often held back by high costs, complex choices or uncertainty.

“The government needs to provide the right information on electric vehicles and other sustainable choices so that people have the confidence to switch.”

A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “We’re investing over £2.3bn to help industry and consumers make a supported switch to EVs.

“This includes installing a public charge point every 28 minutes, keeping EV incentives in the company car tax regime to 2030, and extending 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars for another year.

“Second-hand EVs are also becoming cheaper than ever, with one in three available under £20,000 and 21 brand new models available for less than £30,000.

“We’re seeing growing consumer confidence as a result.”

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