The ex-British spy who wrote a dossier on Donald Trump and Russian interference in the US election says he believes Vladimir Putin will be out of power “within the next year”.
Christopher Steele, who ran the Russia desk at MI6 in London between 2006 and 2009, told Sky News the West needs to “prepare for the end of the Putin era”.
The fractures in the Russian president’s control were exposed during the aborted Wagner coup, and here Steele runs through some potential scenarios that could end his reign.
Steele says the exact nature of any health complaint is unclear but “very credible sources are telling us he’s been ill for some time”- raising the prospect he could die suddenly.
It’s also possible he could be assassinated, perhaps by internal elements, or by a plot from outside of Russia.
Steele says this would be the worst scenario for the West as “all bets would be off”, with “factional bloodshed” likely before a successor is established.
FSB director AlexanderBortnikov could be one of the frontrunners to take power in such a scenario, says the ex-spy.
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6:08
Indulgence of Prigozhin Putin’s ‘big mistake’
:: Toppled due to Ukraine war failure
Putin believed a swift victory was possible when he invaded Ukraine: the reality has been very different.
Ambitions to take over the entire country were ill-founded and the fighting grinds on despite many deaths and demoralised troops.
Steele says the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive may have given Putin some “breathing space” but that disquiet over the invasion – and the tightening effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and the rich and powerful could prove pivotal.
He believes this is the most likely scenario, with the following narrative playing out: “A move is made violently, if necessary, to kill or topple Putin in favour of another securocrat or regime oligarch – but one who has distanced themselves from the war and is prepared to negotiate on ending it genuinely with the West.”
He says “rising star” Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula oblast, is one potential successor.
The others being oligarch Igor Sechin – nicknamed ‘Darth Vader’, and former Russian prime minister Viktor Zubkov.
While such a narrative could hasten the end of the war, Steele says another outcome could see control seized by nationalists in the security services who have lost faith in Putin but want to continue the fighting.
:: Putin stands down and endorses successor
After more than 20 years in power and with pressure mounting, the 70-year-old could decide it’s time to go and step down at the next election, scheduled for March 2024.
Steele says the elections give him a “potential off-ramp” and that Putin could choose to back a successor such as Dmitry Patrushev, son of the Russian Security Council secretary, or Aleksey Dyumin.
The ex-MI6 man says one of these figures as leader would mean “little or no change to the war in Ukraine, but at least the West would be facing a Russian leader who has not proven to be untrustworthy, a liar, and is not indicted for war crimes”.
As part of a deal to step aside, Putin might also ask for immunity for him and his family – similar to the deal struck when ex-president Boris Yeltsin ceded control in 1999.
“That’s in the back of his [Putin] mind that a similar deal might be possible for him going forward,” says Steele.
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6:39
How has Wagner impacted the war in Ukraine?
:: Military coup
The attempted coup by Wagner mercenaries – said to be aimed at Russia’s military leaders rather than Putin himself – was stopped by its leader before troops could reach Moscow.
But Steele says another hypothetical would be a plot orchestrated by senior officers from the country’s mainstream armed forces “disillusioned by the failures and losses in Ukraine”.
He says it would mean “no change to the war or Russian foreign policy” but could result in a transitional regime with a figure such as General Surovikin, commander of Russia’s aerospace forces, as president.
However, while possible, he rates this scenario as “very unlikely”.
Steele adds: “I think there is real disquiet amongst key people in the leadership now.
“Not just in the armed forces where the generals have been openly criticising Putin and the Kremlin for its support for the war – which is unheard of – but more generally the idea of the trajectory of Russia now: led by a president who’s been indicted for war crimes, who’s leading the Russian economy down a certain path.”
:: Popular uprising
Another less likely route Putin might be ousted would be an uprising – either by a nationalist figure such as Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, or a democratic action by supporters of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
The ex-spy says this would be “very unpredictable and possibly bloody in the short term” – with outcomes obviously more favourable for the West and Ukraine if democratic figures were able to seize control.
A passenger travelling on a plane where a man died after the aircraft hit extreme turbulence has said she was “thrown to the roof and the floor”, while another said he “won’t be flying again for a while”.
Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 left Heathrow Airport on Monday night but was forced to make an emergency landing in at Bangkok, landing at 3.45pm local time.
Passengers have said seatbelts spared people from injury and passengers were “launched into the ceiling” of the jet.
Australian Teandra Tukhunen, who had her left arm in a sling in Bangkok’s Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital, said she was asleep and “was woken up because I was thrown to the roof and then to the floor”.
Ms Tukhunen, 30, said when the seatbelt sign came on “pretty much immediately, straight after that I was flung to the roof, before I had time to put my seatbelt on unfortunately.
“It was just so quick, over in a couple of seconds and then you’re just shocked. Everyone’s pretty freaked out”.
Asked if it was scary, she shrugged: “Life happens. Things happen. The pilots saved our lives, that’s all that matters in the end.”
Passenger Joshua said “I don’t think I’ll be flying again for a while” after the incident which he called “quite scary”.
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Lying on a trolley in the same hospital, he described hearing “one huge loud noise, things were coming through the ceiling, water everywhere, people crying… it wasn’t a fun end to the journey”.
He said he was in “a lot of pain” and felt a lot worse after the news of the passenger’s death had “sunk in”.
British passenger Andrew Davies said “anyone who had a seatbelt on isn’t injured”.
Mr Davies said the seatbelt sign came on, but crew members didn’t have time to take their seats.
“Every single cabin crew person I saw was injured in some way or another, maybe with a gash on their head. One had a bad back, and was in obvious pain,” he said.
Passenger Dzafran Azmir described the chaos on board after the plane rose, then fell.
Mr Azmir said: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.”
Kittipong Kittikachorn, head of Bangkok airport, described the disorder he found when he boarded the aircraft after the most critically injured passengers and crew had been evacuated.
Mr Kittikachorn said: “I saw things lying everywhere and many air crew injured.”
He said it’s believed the turbulence hit while people were having breakfast and that an “air pocket” was to blame.
Mr Kittikachorn said most of the passengers he had spoken to had been wearing their seatbelts.
A spokesperson for Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital said: “Seventy-one people needed treatment and six of them had critical injuries”.
Singapore Airlines said the pilot declared a medical emergency and landed in Bangkok after “sudden extreme turbulence over the Irrawaddy Basin at 37,000 feet about 10 hours after departure”.
In a statement, the UK Foreign Office said it was “in contact with the local authorities”.
Forty-seven Britons were among the 211 passengers and 18 crew onboard the plane, a Boeing 777-300ER.
Severe turbulence struck a Singapore Airlines flight from London Heathrow earlier today, with one man killed and many others “launched into the ceiling”.
Authorities believe a 73-year-old British man, who had a heart condition, likely died from cardiac arrest, with at least 30 others injured as a result of the turbulence.
Deaths from turbulence are extremely rare, and the US’ Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said 146 passengers and crew have been seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2021.
But what could have caused the incident, what types of turbulence exist, and are the events getting worse? Here’s what experts have said so far:
What does the flight data show?
Flight data shows a spike in altitude of around 275ft (84m) at 2.49pm local time. Shortly after, the plane returned to a cruising altitude of around 37,000ft (11,277m).
According to Flightradar24, “the flight encountered a rapid change in vertical rate, consistent with a sudden turbulence event”.
At 3.03pm local time, the flight changed course and began its diversion to Bangkok.
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Around 20 minutes later, at about 3.25pm, the flight declared an emergency – a Squawk 7700 – before landing in Bangkok at 3.45pm.
What could have caused the turbulence?
Tim Atkinson, an aviation consultant and pilot, told the Sky News Daily podcast he believes “it’s fairly clear” the Singapore Airlines flight “encountered atmospheric turbulence”.
He noted that the area – called the Intertropical Convergence Zone – where the Boeing 777 plunged 6,000 feet is “renowned among pilots, and I dare say passengers, for turbulence”.
“Despite abundant caution occasionally, there’s turbulence ahead which can’t be identified, and the unfortunate result of an encounter is injury and, very rarely, fatality,” he said.
Mr Atkinson also noted that the larger the aircraft, “the worse the atmospheric perturbation, the disruption in the smoothness of the atmosphere, needs to be to cause major problems”.
He then said the 777 is “one of the largest and, I daresay, most solid airframes widely flying around the world”.
What types of turbulence are there?
Sky News’ weather producer Jo Robinson notes there are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.
Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.
This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.
There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.
It is unclear what type of turbulence the Singapore Airlines flight went through.
How common is an incident like this?
Chris McGee, a commercial pilot for more than 20 years, said in her experience the plane did encounter CAT which is “almost impossible to predict” and comes “out of the blue”.
Ms McGee said turbulence is not in fact that rare, but to experience it to this degree is “phenomenally rare”.
“In my career I’ve experienced one incident of severe turbulence,” she said, adding that she has heard of maybe “two, possibly three incidents of something that extreme” from fellow pilots.
The reported 6,000-ft drop in under five minutes is quite normal in a controlled descent instigated by the pilot, she said.
However, what they experienced was not a nice smooth, controlled descent, but an “absolute maelstrom of the aeroplane flinging itself around all over the sky”.
“It’s awful what happened to those on board, one death is tragic, other people were injured, but something like that is incredibly rare,” she said.
“We do train in the simulator every six months at least where we practicse things we can’t practise in the real aeroplane. Things like emergency procedures, abnormalities and unusual weather conditions like this, for example.
“We are taught how to fly the aeroplane through these extreme events and how to recover them should the plane depart from its normal flight mode.”
Her best advice for any passengers concerned about their safety on the flight is to follow what the cabin crew “strongly suggest and keep their seatbelts loosely tied at all times. On the flight deck that’s what we do. It will protect you”.
In June last year, a study from Reading University found that in a typical spot in the North Atlantic – one of the world’s busiest routes – the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.
Moderate turbulence was also found to have increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
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Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the study, said at the time: “My message from this is we need to do something otherwise flights will become more turbulent in future [as global heating increases further].”
Professor Paul Roundy, from the University of Albany, said on X on Tuesday that the 55% increase in “a very infrequent signal gives a real, but small, change in absolute risk”.
He noted that “it’s not something a randomly selected passenger should worry about,” before adding: “Airline travel of the future won’t be fraught with wings ripped off planes, or have thousands of dead or injured passengers.
The 73-year-old British man who died from a suspected heart attack after “sudden extreme turbulence” on a London-Singapore flight has been named as Geoff Kitchen.
Dozens more were injured in the incident, with passengers describing people being “launched into the ceiling” and overhead lockers.
Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from Heathrow was forced to make an emergency landing at Bangkok Airport in Thailand.
Mr Kitchen, from Thornbury near Bristol, was on a six-week holiday with his wife to Singapore, Indonesia and Australia.
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In a post on Facebook, Thornbury Musical Theatre Group paid tribute to Mr Kitchen: “It is with a heavy heart that we learn of the devastating news of the passing of our esteemed colleague and friend Geoff Kitchen in the recent Singapore Air Incident.
“Geoff was always a gentleman with the utmost honesty and integrity and always did what was right for the group.
“His commitment to TMTG was unquestionable and he has served the group and the local community of Thornbury for over 35 years, holding various offices within the group, including chairman, treasurer and most recently secretary.
“Our thoughts and prayers go out to his wife and the family at this difficult time, and we ask that you respect their privacy.”
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6:42
Extreme turbulence comes ‘out of the blue’
Kittipong Kittikachorn, head of Bangkok airport, said earlier that the 73-year-old died from a probable cardiac arrest.
Forty-seven Britons were among the 211 passengers and 18 crew onboard the plane, a Boeing 777-300ER.
A spokesperson for Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital said: “Seventy-one people needed treatment and six of them had critical injuries.”
However, Singapore Airlines seemed to contradict those numbers and said only 30 people had been taken to hospital.
Australian Teandra Tukhunen, who had her left arm in a sling in Bangkok’s Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital, said she was asleep and “woken up because I was thrown to the roof and then to the floor”.
Ms Tukhunen, 30, said when the seatbelt sign came on “pretty much immediately, straight after that I was flung to the roof, before I had time to put my seatbelt on unfortunately”.
“It was just so quick, over in a couple of seconds and then you’re just shocked. Everyone’s pretty freaked out.”
There are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.
Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.
Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.
This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.
There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.
It’s been understood for some time that climate change is increasing turbulence during flights, and the trend is set to worsen according to reports.
Passenger Dzafran Azmir also said: “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.”
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Singapore Airlines also said the pilot declared a medical emergency and landed in Bangkok after “sudden extreme turbulence over the Irrawaddy Basin at 37,000 feet about 10 hours after departure”.
In a statement, the UK Foreign Office said: “We are supporting the family of a British man who has died in Bangkok and are in contact with the local authorities.”