Real or not? Making sense of the MLB trade deadline
The Los Angeles Angels didn’t deal Shohei Ohtani and instead surrounded him with new additions. The New York Mets traded both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and threw in the towel for 2023. Those future Hall of Fame pitchers, by the way, just made the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, respectively, a lot more powerful for the postseason.
Which clubs made the right calls? What should we believe (or not believe) about the rest of the baseball season? Now that the dust has settled from the 2023 MLB trade deadline, we asked our ESPN MLB experts to debate what’s real — and what’s not — moving forward.
Real or Not: The 2023 Angels are now legit contenders
Alden Gonzalez: Real. Look, I’m not going to sit here and pretend the Angels are world-beaters. Or even that they’re one of the six best teams in the American League. What I will tell you is that they have a chance. And to them, having a chance was enough to justify going all-in on a roster that many others consider inferior.
Before you trash them, consider the context: They had already decided not to trade Ohtani last summer. Then they decided not to trade Ohtani in the offseason. Then they vaulted their payroll to a franchise record in hopes of contending in what is potentially their final season with Ohtani. And when the trade deadline came around … they were still contending.
The Angels’ thinking can best be summarized this way: We’ve already gone this far. We might as well go all the way. Yes, there is a very real chance they miss the playoffs, then Ohtani leaves in free agency and the Angels come away with nothing more than a compensatory draft pick. Clearly, they’re more comfortable with that possibility than another grim alternative — Ohtani is traded, he makes a playoff run and wins an MVP with another team, and whatever chances the Angels had of signing him in free agency are whittled down to zero.
At present, the Angels aren’t good enough. But if Mike Trout gets back relatively soon … and Logan O’Hoppe rejoins the lineup … and Anthony Rendon finally gets healthy … well, they’re in this. And that’s all they wanted.
Bradford Doolittle: Not. The Angels began the day with a 10% shot at the postseason in my simulations. That, simply put, is why I can’t see them as legit contenders. The probabilities are too stacked against them getting into the playoffs.
That’s not to say that L.A. doesn’t have a playoff-quality roster. I think the Angels probably have one of the seven or eight best rosters in the AL. It’s also not to say that I think the Angels took the wrong approach at the deadline. I’m not sure I would advocate for such an aggressive approach for most 1-in-10 wannabe contenders, but the Shohei Ohtani situation makes this a special case.
If the Angels beat the odds and play into October and, somehow, that proves to be the tipping point in an eventual Ohtani free-agent decision to stay put, then obviously the decision to add is more than justified. I don’t know what the odds are that any of that will happen, but they aren’t zero. Given how great, unique, marketable and irreplaceable Ohtani is, I’m willing to roll the dice.
But the odds are the odds. The Angels are a solid team in an AL playoff field crowded with quality teams. They don’t have access to the AL Central crown. It’s just too steep a hill to climb.
Real or Not: The Mets were right to trade two future Hall of Fame pitchers in a three-day span
1:17
What are the Mets getting in Drew Gilbert?
Kiley McDaniel details what the Mets are getting in Drew Gilbert, who they acquired from the Astros in the Justin Verlander trade.
Kiley McDaniel: Real. Scherzer had a year and a half left at $43.3 million per year while his performance this year is tracking to be worth about one-third of that. Accordingly, the Rangers are getting him for the rest of this year and all of next year for $22.5 million, roughly in line with the pitcher he’s been this year, with a chance he regains his form. In exchange, the Mets got shortstop Luisangel Acuna, who is a back-third of the Top 100 type of prospect, with an implied trade value of about $20 million-$25 million. Acuna is a likely shortstop with plus speed, a chance for 15-18 homers, and solid contact skills who will open next season in Triple-A. You can see the math broadly implying the Mets covered Scherzer’s deal to get Acuna’s controllable six years.
In the other big deal, Verlander hasn’t fallen off quite as much and also has a 2025 player option that could trigger if he throws 140 innings in 2024. The Mets are kicking in $35 million (more than half of what’s guaranteed in his deal) and would cover half of his player option if it vests. So the Mets are even more aggressively buying prospect value, and they got it in center fielder Drew Gilbert and right fielder Ryan Clifford. Two of the four breakout great values in the 2022 Astros draft, Gilbert is ahead of Acuna in the back-half of the Top 100 and Clifford is just behind Acuna, on the periphery of the Top 100. That’s about $35 million-$40 million in prospect value, again almost matching the money the Mets kicked in, and Gilbert is another player like Acuna who could be in the big leagues next year.
It’s never easy to trade Hall of Fame talents, but the Mets used this terrible season and their deep pockets to reload for their next contending team, which could be playing together in New York at this time next season.
David Schoenfield: Not. Is there a master plan here? Thanks to Steve Cohen’s fat wallet, they ended up more or less buying some good prospects by including tens of millions of cash in the two trades. The Mets are operating differently from any other team, running up a record-breaking payroll and tearing it all down after four months. They’ll have to replace Verlander and Scherzer in the rotation for next season if they want to compete, which will mean signing more free agents, and there’s no guarantee those starters will be any better than the two future Hall of Famers they just traded away (and who were hardly the team’s biggest problem this season). I’d say the other 29 owners are probably ticked off at the Mets, except the Mets are just another run-of-the-mill team with some decent prospects, a large payroll and an uncertain future.
Real or Not: Verlander’s Astros have passed Scherzer’s Rangers as the team to beat in the American League West
Gonzalez: Real. Every executive in the industry would probably tell you Verlander is a better pitcher now than Scherzer. When the Astros brought Verlander back on Tuesday, they were only half a game behind the Rangers — even though Yordan Alvarez had missed seven weeks and Jose Altuve had played in less than 35% of their games. They’re both healthy now. Jose Urquidy is on his way back, and the likes of Jose Abreu, Jeremy Pena and Rafael Montero should be better. This division is going to come down to what could be a really fun two months — and I’m riding with the team that has made six consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series.
Jesse Rogers: Not. OK, so both teams added a good pitcher. Oh, wait, the Rangers got two good ones in Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery, and they’ve already led the division all season. They also have a manager who can match wins and experience with Dusty Baker. And they’re not going to experience any fatigue, considering they haven’t been to the postseason since 2016. All that mileage on the Astros might not prevent them from making the playoffs but it may slow them down in September. They’ve already had an inordinate amount of injuries and are bound to see some more. That’s what happens when you play deep into October every year. Every part of the Rangers can match the Astros in talent, though maybe not experience. Still, the new kids on the block will hold off the defending champs and win the AL West.
Real or Not: The Yankees are not going to make the playoffs after an underwhelming trade deadline
Gonzalez: Real. The Yankees’ approach to the trade deadline might be the most confusing of all, for one simple reason: status quo just wasn’t the answer. They either needed to add in order to vault themselves into contention or better situate themselves for 2024. As it stands, they’re simply not good enough. Of course, Aaron Judge helps a lot. And maybe Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loaisiga can give that pitching staff a boost — but Cortes had a 5.16 ERA through his first 11 starts and Loaisiga has made three appearances all year. Worst of all, the offense that surrounds Judge is a complete eyesore, and they didn’t make it any better. But forget all that. Let’s just go through it: Are the Yankees better than the Rays or the Orioles? No. Are they better than the Rangers or the Astros? No. That’s four teams, plus the AL Central winner, leaving only one realistic playoff spot — and I think the Blue Jays are a far superior team. The Yankees might legitimately be the fifth-best team in their own division. It’s time we stop pretending otherwise.
Schoenfield: Not. You’re not going to suck me in and say the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs. No way. I know what’s going on. I see that .230 team batting average and Jake Bauers hitting leadoff and Anthony Rizzo hitting .170 since the beginning of June and Aaron Judge hobbling around on a bad toe and Domingo German missing a start because of an infected hair follicle, which is an injury so ridiculous you can’t even make it up. It’s all goofy and weird and it makes so many baseball fans so happy to see. It’s like the Yankees are re-living the era of Alvaro Espinoza and Oscar Azocar and Bye-Bye Balboni — the last time they finished in last place. But I know better. You should know better. Of course the Yankees will get hot and make the playoffs. I don’t know how, but it will happen. The Blue Jays will fade. The Red Sox have no pitching. The Angels or Mariners? Please. The Yankees will win that third wild card and, as they say, you just have to get in. Be prepared, baseball fans.
Real or Not: The going-for-it Cubs will win the National League Central
Schoenfield: Real. OK. OK. The Cubs are four games behind the Reds entering Wednesday’s critical game against Cincinnati, the third of a four-game series. They’re behind the Brewers. They are not the betting favorite with that deficit and two teams to leap over, but there’s this: They’ve been the best team in the division. Yes, I’m going to drop the run differential on you here: The Cubs are plus-67, the Reds are minus-7 and the Brewers are minus-14. The Reds have a lousy rotation and the Brewers have lousy hitting, while the Cubs have been pretty solid in both departments.
They do need to get Marcus Stroman back on track (2.28 ERA through June 20, 9.00 in seven starts since, including 13 runs in 6⅓ innings his past two outings). Justin Steele (12-3, 2.65 ERA) continues to pitch well, Kyle Hendricks continues to get the job done with his 87-mph sinker and Jameson Taillon has perhaps figured things out with a 1.78 ERA over his past four starts. That’s a good rotation if Stroman fixes what he says has been a mechanical issue that popped up when the team went to England for the London Series. The Cubs also added the best hitter to switch teams at the deadline in Jeimer Candelario, giving the Cubs even more flexibility with the lineup. Certainly, these games against the Reds are huge, and then the Cubs host the Braves, but after that comes a stretch where the Cubs can do some damage: Mets, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, Tigers and Pirates before a crucial six games against the Brewers and Reds in late August and early September. I feel a big stretch run coming on.
Rogers: Not. It’s not that the Cubs aren’t as good as Milwaukee or Cincinnati. They probably are. Maybe even better. It’s just that the math isn’t in their favor. Even being just five games behind those teams is enough to bet against the Cubs overtaking them. FanGraphs gives them a 15% chance — granted that was before factoring in the addition of Jeimer Candelario. Then again, the Brewers added as well, so perhaps there will be no real change in those odds. If Stroman and Drew Smyly — or even just one of them — find their game again, the Cubs will have a much better chance. But that’s assuming Taillon continues on a positive path and fatigue doesn’t catch up to Steele. Perhaps the same kinds of things can be said about a shaky Brewers squad — but they’re the team in front. For that reason, they get the edge.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.
Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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