Which clubs made the right calls? What should we believe (or not believe) about the rest of the baseball season? Now that the dust has settled from the 2023 MLB trade deadline, we asked our ESPN MLB experts to debate what’s real — and what’s not — moving forward.
Real or not: The 2023 Angels are now legit contenders
Alden Gonzalez: Real. Look, I’m not going to sit here and pretend the Angels are world-beaters. Or even that they’re one of the six best teams in the American League. What I will tell you is that they have a chance. And to them, having a chance was enough to justify going all-in on a roster that many others consider inferior.
Before you trash them, consider the context: They had already decided not to trade Ohtani last summer. Then they decided not to trade Ohtani in the offseason. Then they vaulted their payroll to a franchise record in hopes of contending in what is potentially their final season with Ohtani. And when the trade deadline came around … they were still contending.
The Angels’ thinking can best be summarized this way: We’ve already gone this far. We might as well go all the way. Yes, there is a very real chance they miss the playoffs, then Ohtani leaves in free agency and the Angels come away with nothing more than a compensatory draft pick. Clearly, they’re more comfortable with that possibility than another grim alternative — Ohtani is traded, he makes a playoff run and wins an MVP with another team, and whatever chances the Angels had of signing him in free agency are whittled down to zero.
At present, the Angels aren’t good enough. But if Mike Trout gets back relatively soon … and Logan O’Hoppe rejoins the lineup … and Anthony Rendon finally gets healthy … well, they’re in this. And that’s all they wanted.
Bradford Doolittle: Not. The Angels began the day with a 10% shot at the postseason in my simulations. That, simply put, is why I can’t see them as legit contenders. The probabilities are too stacked against them getting into the playoffs.
That’s not to say that L.A. doesn’t have a playoff-quality roster. I think the Angels probably have one of the seven or eight best rosters in the AL. It’s also not to say that I think the Angels took the wrong approach at the deadline. I’m not sure I would advocate for such an aggressive approach for most 1-in-10 wannabe contenders, but the Ohtani situation makes this a special case.
If the Angels beat the odds and play into October and, somehow, that proves to be the tipping point in an eventual Ohtani free agent decision to stay put, then obviously the decision to add is more than justified. I don’t know what the odds are that any of that will happen, but they aren’t zero. Given how great, unique, marketable and irreplaceable Ohtani is, I’m willing to roll the dice.
But the odds are the odds. The Angels are a solid team in an AL playoff field crowded with quality teams. They don’t have access to the AL Central crown. It’s just too steep a hill to climb.
Real or not: The Mets were right to trade two future Hall of Fame pitchers in a three-day span
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What are the Mets getting in Drew Gilbert?
Kiley McDaniel details what the Mets are getting in Drew Gilbert, who they acquired from the Astros in the Justin Verlander trade.
Kiley McDaniel: Real. Scherzer had a year and a half left at $43.3 million per year while his performance this year is tracking to be worth about one-third of that. Accordingly, the Rangers are getting him for the rest of this year and all of next year for $22.5 million, roughly in line with the pitcher he has been this year, with a chance he regains his form. In exchange, the Mets got shortstop Luisangel Acuna, who is a back-third of the Top 100 type of prospect, with an implied trade value of about $20 million-$25 million. Acuna is a likely shortstop with plus speed, a chance for 15-18 homers, and solid contact skills who will open next season in Triple-A. You can see the math broadly implying the Mets covered Scherzer’s deal to get Acuna’s controllable six years.
In the other big deal, Verlander hasn’t fallen off quite as much and also has a 2025 player option that could trigger if he throws 140 innings in 2024. The Mets are kicking in $35 million (more than half of what’s guaranteed in his deal) and would cover half of his player option if it vests. So the Mets are even more aggressively buying prospect value, and they got it in center fielder Drew Gilbert and right fielder Ryan Clifford. Two of the four breakout great values in the 2022 Astros draft, Gilbert is ahead of Acuna in the back-half of the Top 100 and Clifford is just behind Acuna, on the periphery of the Top 100. That’s about $35 million-$40 million in prospect value, again almost matching the money the Mets kicked in, and Gilbert is another player like Acuna who could be in the big leagues next year.
It’s never easy to trade Hall of Fame talents, but the Mets used this terrible season and their deep pockets to reload for their next contending team, which could be playing together in New York at this time next season.
David Schoenfield: Not. Is there a master plan here? Thanks to Steve Cohen’s fat wallet, they ended up more or less buying some good prospects by including tens of millions of cash in the two trades. The Mets are operating differently from any other team, running up a record-breaking payroll and tearing it all down after four months. They’ll have to replace Verlander and Scherzer in the rotation for next season if they want to compete, which will mean signing more free agents, and there’s no guarantee those starters will be any better than the two future Hall of Famers they just traded away (and who were hardly the team’s biggest problem this season). I’d say the other 29 owners are probably ticked off at the Mets, except the Mets are just another run-of-the-mill team with some decent prospects, a large payroll and an uncertain future.
Real or not: Verlander’s Astros have passed Scherzer’s Rangers as the team to beat in the American League West
Gonzalez: Real. Every executive in the industry would probably tell you Verlander is a better pitcher now than Scherzer. When the Astros brought Verlander back on Tuesday, they were only half a game behind the Rangers — even though Yordan Alvarez had missed seven weeks and Jose Altuve had played in less than 35% of their games. They’re both healthy. Jose Urquidy is on his way back, and the likes of Jose Abreu, Jeremy Pena and Rafael Montero should be better. This division is going to come down to what could be a really fun two months — and I’m riding with the team that has made six consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series.
Jesse Rogers: Not. OK, so both teams added a good pitcher. Oh, wait, the Rangers got two good ones in Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, and they’ve already led the division all season. They also have a manager who can match wins and experience with Dusty Baker. And they’re not going to experience any fatigue, considering they haven’t been to the postseason since 2016. All that mileage on the Astros might not prevent them from making the playoffs but it might slow them down in September. They’ve already had an inordinate amount of injuries and are bound to see some more. That’s what happens when you play deep into October every year. Every part of the Rangers can match the Astros in talent, though maybe not experience. Still, the new kids on the block will hold off the defending champs and win the AL West.
Real or not: The Yankees are not going to make the playoffs after an underwhelming trade deadline
Gonzalez: Real. The Yankees’ approach to the trade deadline might be the most confusing of all, for one simple reason: status quo just wasn’t the answer. They either needed to add in order to vault themselves into contention or better situate themselves for 2024. As it stands, they’re simply not good enough. Of course, Aaron Judge helps a lot. And maybe Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loaisiga can give that pitching staff a boost — but Cortes had a 5.16 ERA through his first 11 starts and Loaisiga has made three appearances all year. Worst of all, the offense that surrounds Judge is a complete eyesore, and they didn’t make it any better. But forget all that. Let’s just go through it: Are the Yankees better than the Rays or the Orioles? No. Are they better than the Rangers or the Astros? No. That’s four teams, plus the AL Central winner, leaving only one realistic playoff spot — and I think the Blue Jays are a far superior team. The Yankees might legitimately be the fifth-best team in their own division. It’s time we stop pretending otherwise.
Schoenfield: Not. You’re not going to suck me in and say the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs. No way. I know what’s going on. I see that .230 team batting average and Jake Bauers hitting leadoff and Anthony Rizzo hitting .170 since the beginning of June and Judge hobbling around on a bad toe and Domingo German missing a start because of an infected hair follicle, which is an injury so ridiculous you can’t even make it up. It’s all goofy and weird and it makes so many baseball fans so happy to see. It’s like the Yankees are reliving the era of Alvaro Espinoza and Oscar Azocar and Bye-Bye Balboni — the last time they finished in last place. But I know better. You should know better. Of course the Yankees will get hot and make the playoffs. I don’t know how, but it will happen. The Blue Jays will fade. The Red Sox have no pitching. The Angels or Mariners? Please. The Yankees will win that third wild card and, as they say, you just have to get in. Be prepared, baseball fans.
Real or not: The going-for-it Cubs will win the National League Central
Schoenfield: Real. OK. OK. The Cubs are four games behind the Reds entering Wednesday’s critical game against Cincinnati, the third of a four-game series. They’re behind the Brewers. They are not the betting favorite with that deficit and two teams to leap over, but there’s this: They’ve been the best team in the division. Yes, I’m going to drop the run differential on you here: The Cubs are plus-67, the Reds are minus-7 and the Brewers are minus-14. The Reds have a lousy rotation and the Brewers have lousy hitting, while the Cubs have been pretty solid in both departments.
They do need to get Marcus Stroman back on track (2.28 ERA through June 20, 9.00 in seven starts since, including 13 runs in 6⅓ innings his past two outings). Justin Steele (12-3, 2.65 ERA) continues to pitch well, Kyle Hendricks continues to get the job done with his 87-mph sinker and Jameson Taillon has perhaps figured things out with a 1.78 ERA over his past four starts. That’s a good rotation if Stroman fixes what he says has been a mechanical issue that popped up when the team went to England for the London Series. The Cubs also added the best hitter to switch teams at the deadline in Jeimer Candelario, giving the Cubs even more flexibility with the lineup. Certainly, these games against the Reds are huge, and then the Cubs host the Braves, but after that comes a stretch where the Cubs can do some damage: Mets, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, Tigers and Pirates before a crucial six games against the Brewers and Reds in late August and early September. I feel a big stretch run coming on.
Rogers: Not. It’s not that the Cubs aren’t as good as Milwaukee or Cincinnati. They probably are. Maybe even better. It’s just that the math isn’t in their favor. Even being just five games behind those teams is enough to bet against the Cubs overtaking them. FanGraphs gives them a 15% chance — granted that was before factoring in the addition of Candelario. Then again, the Brewers added as well, so perhaps there will be no real change in those odds. If Stroman and Drew Smyly — or even just one of them — find their game again, the Cubs will have a much better chance. But that’s assuming Taillon continues on a positive path and fatigue doesn’t catch up to Steele. Perhaps the same kinds of things can be said about a shaky Brewers squad — but they’re the team in front. For that reason, they get the edge.
This weekend, tens of thousands of fans are expected to travel to Cooperstown, New York, as they do annually, to pay homage to new inductees and returning members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, visit the Hall and see an array of artifacts from the greats of the game — including Major League Baseball’s all-time hits leader, Pete Rose.
But Rose’s presence in the Hall’s exhibits didn’t require the action of a commissioner. The legendary “Charlie Hustle” has been there for decades, a constant in the museum’s presentation of the history of the game, with numerous pieces that he donated to the Hall. Rose, of course, is not a Hall of Famer, but fans have long been able to see him and his accomplishments represented in at least a dozen items on display, including bats and a ball, a cap, cleats, a jersey and more connected with his 4,256 hits, record numbers of games played and at-bats and myriad awards. The 17-time All-Star at a record five positions won three World Series titles and proudly referred to himself as the winningest player ever.
MLB banished Rose in 1989 after an investigation it commissioned found Rose, then the manager of the Cincinnati Reds, had bet on the sport and his own team’s games. Two years later, the Hall of Fame’s board decided anyone on MLB’s permanently ineligible list would also be ineligible for election to the Hall. That became known as “the Pete Rose rule.”
For nearly 15 years after baseball banned him, Rose repeatedly denied that he had bet on the sport. Before, and long after, his 2004 admission to having gambled on baseball games — including Reds games — during part of his managerial tenure with Cincinnati, Rose was a fixture in Cooperstown for induction weekends, signing and selling his autographs at a memorabilia store.
Just a block away at the Hall were Sparky Anderson, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez of the 1975 and ’76 “Big Red Machine” championship teams with Rose, and Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt of the 1980 Philadelphia Phillies with whom Rose won a championship, as well as several other teammates from his 24 seasons.
The Hall’s “Whole New Ballgame” exhibit, devoted to the era from 1970 to the present, features a Rose jersey from the 1973 season, when he won the National League Most Valuable Player Award; the ball and a ticket from the 1981 game when he tied Stan Musial’s National League hits record; and a 1978 can of a chocolate-flavored beverage named “Pete,” bearing a Rose action photo.
The section of the Hall that chronicles many of the game’s most hallowed records is titled “One for the Books.” It showcases Rose’s shoes and a scoresheet from his crowning achievement, Sept. 11, 1985, when he broke Ty Cobb’s career hits record. Also displayed is a pair of Rose bats from 1978, when he reached the 3,000-hit milestone and later tied the 1897 National League-record 44-game hitting streak by Wee Willie Keeler, and Rose’s Montreal Expos cap from 1984 when he broke Carl Yastrzemski’s record for games played.
In “Shoebox Treasures,” which examines the baseball cards phenomenon, visitors can see the Rose Topps card from 1975 and two Topps cards — one authentic and one counterfeit — from ’63, when he was named National League Rookie of the Year.
There is also an interactive exhibit on the subject of gambling that includes the Rose saga.
And according to the Hall, its archives contain dozens of holdings pertaining to Rose, from recorded interviews — including with Howard Stern — to correspondence and collectibles, as well as the investigative file from MLB’s 1989 probe of Rose’s gambling led by special counsel John Dowd.
Rose visited the Hall when he was 26 and a fifth-year star for Cincinnati. It was July 24, 1967, and the Reds toured the museum before losing to the Baltimore Orioles 3-0 in the then-annual Hall of Fame exhibition game, in which Rose went 0-for-3.
“This is really great,” Rose said as he looked around the Hall, per the Cincinnati Enquirer. “This is what baseball is all about.”
Rose marveled at the multitude of mementos from Babe Ruth, a member of Cooperstown’s inaugural 1936 class, and at the vast space specifically for the “Bambino” and his larger-than-life exploits on the diamond and beyond.
Dayton (Ohio) Daily News columnist Si Burick, who eventually would be selected to the Hall’s writers wing, recounted a moment from the visit in his column the next day:
When a fellow suggested to an awestruck Rose that he, too, might some day grace the Hall of Fame, if he continued at his present pace, the irrepressible Cincinnatian had a typical answer. Peter pointed to a cubicle filled with Ruth gadgets, and suggested, “There’s my chance to get in — with my bowling ball.”
Ruth’s bowling ball was on display and Rose was a winner four months earlier during spring training at a “Base-Bowl” event in a Tampa bowling alley that paired MLB and Professional Bowlers Association stars. Rose and Dick Weber edged Lou Brock of the St. Louis Cardinals and Wayne Zahn. Of the four, only Rose isn’t enshrined in either the baseball or PBA Hall of Fame.
“I got all the records, so you can throw me into the sea, but the records are still going to come to the top,” Rose said in a 2019 interview for ESPN’s “Backstory” program. “You can walk into the Hall of Fame, you see my name in things everywhere, which is fine. It’s good for me. It’s good for the Hall of Fame. The greatest thing for baseball is the history of baseball.”
With Rose now eligible for election, his Hall candidacy is to be considered by the Historical Overview Committee, which develops a ballot of eight names for the Classic Era Committee that is next scheduled to meet in December 2027. That era committee handles candidates whose greatest impact was prior to 1980, including Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues stars. Its 16 members, comprising Hall of Famers, executives and veteran media members, are charged with weighing the eight candidates’ résumés, integrity, sportsmanship and character — 12 votes are needed for election.
The long-running debates over Rose surely will continue well past 2027. Regardless of whether he’s added to the Plaques Gallery signifying membership in the Hall — there will be 351 plaques as of Sunday, including the day’s five new inductees — there’s no disputing that Rose will continue to have places in the building.
ESPN senior writer Don Van Natta Jr. contributed to this report.
CLEVELAND — Baltimore Orioles closer Felix Bautista, who is tied for sixth in the American League with 19 saves, was placed on the 15-day injured list Thursday with right shoulder discomfort.
Interim manager Tony Mansolino said the right-hander felt uncomfortable while stretching in the bullpen Wednesday during a 3-2 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. Bautista will undergo an MRI when the Orioles return home Friday.
“The (dugout) phone rang in the seventh inning last night and I thought, ‘That is not good,'” Mansolino said. “Then I heard it get slammed down and knew it wasn’t good.
“Félix had started his process of getting loose and that’s when it flared up.”
Bautista did not pitch in the first three games of the series in Cleveland, last seeing action on Sunday at Tampa Bay when he earned his 19th save in 20 opportunities. He missed the entire 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The 30-year-old Dominican has a 1-1 record and 2.60 ERA in 35 appearances, limiting opponents to a .134 batting average over 34 2/3 innings. Bautista has struck out 50 and walked 23.
“We just have to hope it’s not too serious,” Mansolino said.
The Orioles will use a closer-by-committee in the short term with righty setup men Seranthony Dominguez and Yennier Cano at the front of the line.
“We’re going to have to bump up their roles,” Mansolino said. “We’ll figure it out.”
Bautista will not enter free agency until 2028, but is eligible for arbitration following this season. The 6-foot-8, 285-pounder is in the final year of a two-year, $2 million contract.
With the Orioles out of wild-card contention, they are expected to be active sellers before the July 31 trade deadline.
“For as long as I can remember, all I ever wanted to do was play baseball,” Ahmed wrote on social media. “I got to live out my childhood dream and play for a very long time! After 15 professional seasons and over a decade in the big leagues I am officially hanging up my spikes and retiring from playing.”
“To all of the organizations I got to play for… Atlanta, thank you for drafting me! Arizona… calling me up to the big leagues, and believing in me for 10 seasons! SF, LA, SD and TEX… thank you for giving me chances to continue doing what I loved!”
A Gold Glove winner in 2018 and 2019 while playing at shortstop, Ahmed batted .233 with 72 homers and 339 RBIs in 964 career games.
“I will always love the game of baseball,” he added. “I am excited for my next chapter and the [opportunity] to give the best of me to this game that we all love!”