What’s next for the Big Ten, SEC, Florida State, Notre Dame and remaining Pac-12 schools?
In arguably the most historic day of conference realignment, Oregon and Washington began finalizing a move to join the Big Ten in 2024.
And they may not be the only ones on the move. On the heels of those monumental decisions, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah are in discussions to join the Big 12, joining Colorado in a Pac-12 exodus. If those dominoes fall, it will leave a conference that was formed in 1915 with just four teams and on the verge of extinction.
Today’s moves will have ripple effects far beyond Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State as the Pac-12’s four remaining schools. Will the Big Ten keep expanding? Is the SEC content to stand pat? What about Florida State and Notre Dame?
ESPN spoke to power brokers throughout the sport to help determine how today’s seismic moves will affect schools in every major conference, plus the College Football Playoff and more.
What does this mean for the remaining Pac-12 teams?
The four schools in the most precarious situations are Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State, all of which are without a natural landing spot that would ensure their long-term stability.
For the Bay Area schools — Cal and Stanford — the Big Ten has routinely been mentioned as a possible destination, but that was driven more by the idea that Big Ten presidents would be keen on an alignment more for academic reasons. From a media rights value standpoint, though, neither moves the needle in a way that incentivizes invitations in the current landscape. It leaves both very much in survival mode. They both have large athletic departments that rely heavily on TV money to operate and it’s hard to envision a scenario where both don’t end up cutting sports. Do they flirt with independence in football and find a different home for the other sports? Could ACC or Big 12 lifelines materialize? The Mountain West would be thrilled to welcome either school — it obviously makes sense geographically — but the discrepancy in media rights money from what they’re accustomed to would mean wholesale athletic department changes.
Oregon State and Washington State have no leverage and very little prospects of getting bailed out by a power conference. More than Cal and Stanford, OSU and WSU would be cultural fits in the Mountain West. The problem here is that both athletic departments have long operated with the expectation of $30 million or more in TV money and in the MWC, they won’t get anywhere near that. That shortfall would force both schools to essentially reinvent how their athletic departments operate. If they can weather that storm, life in a healthy Mountain West wouldn’t be so bad — both could regularly compete for conference titles in a way that has never been possible in the Pac-12 — but it would represent a drop from major college football and that’s a tough pill to swallow.
“We are disappointed with the recent decisions by some of our Pac-12 peers,” WSU president Kirk Schulz and athletic director Pat Chun said in a statement. “While we had hoped that our membership would remain together, this outcome was always a possibility, and we have been working diligently to determine what is next for Washington State athletics. We’ve prepared for numerous scenarios, including our current situation.” — Kyle Bonagura
Where do things stand with further Big 12 expansion?
Arizona is in the final stages of being admitted to the Big 12, according to sources, but an official move hasn’t been finalized yet. Sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel that Utah and Arizona State applied for formal membership in the Big 12 Friday following the news of Washington and Oregon’s departure. If those three programs join Colorado, the Big 12 will increase to 16 teams.
The Big 12 was aggressive in its pursuit of Arizona as a 14th team, and although Arizona and Arizona State operate under the same Board of Regents, they could have made conference decisions independently. Sources indicated their preference was to stay together.
A 16-team Big 12 would close the gap with the ACC — and possibly put the Big 12 in third place financially behind the Big Ten and SEC. — Heather Dinich
Is the SEC really content to stay at 16 teams?
At SEC media days last month, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said the league is “very attentive to what’s happening around us.”
“Do I think it’s done?” he said in July. “People will say, well, I get to decide that. Right now it appears others are going to decide that before we have to make any decisions.”
Well, here we are — with others having made their decisions.
Sources within the SEC indicate there’s certainly been chatter recently among the athletic directors about adding more teams – simply as a reaction to recent events — but there’s also a reality to the finances component as they ask each other if they’re willing to share revenue with more schools. There are certain sources of income beyond the television money that don’t fluctuate much — like the conference championship games, the baseball tournaments, etc.
The bottom line is, who would they add that’s available and drives value?
Until proven otherwise, the ACC schools like North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson are tangled in a legal web that includes a hefty exit fee and grant of rights that extends through 2036.
The SEC will do its homework, but probably won’t be forced into a knee-jerk reaction because the Big Ten just got bigger. Sankey has said repeatedly that geography matters as they consider these things. There is no sense of panic in the SEC.
“My view is we know who we are,” Sankey said at media days. “We’re comfortable as a league. We’re focused on our growth to 16. We’ve restored rivalries. We’re geographically contiguous with the right kind of philosophical alignment, and we can stay at that level of super conference. When you go bigger, there are a whole other set of factors that have to be considered, and I’m not sure I’ve seen those teased out other than in my mind late at night.” — Dinich
Does this change anything for Florida State and its timeline?
Yes. Florida State has been monitoring the events in the Big 12 and Pac-12 closely and understands the realities and dynamics of realignment.
Perhaps now it sees the possibility of the Big Ten expanding to 20 schools, with room for two more. Florida State has been exploring all its options for over a year, but there are key questions. If the Big Ten is interested: 1) How does Florida State figure out paying a $120 million exit fee and 2) come up with a strategy to get out of the grant of rights, which is meant to tie all ACC schools together until the end of their television contract with ESPN in 2036.
Florida State has had both an in-house legal team and an outside legal team study the specific contract language over the course of the last year. This is a document that has never been challenged in court, but one that in all likelihood will be at some point in time. Why? Because the grant of rights not only gives the ACC control over every school’s media rights money, it gives the conference control over their actual media rights — meaning the right to broadcast all home games in all sports.
Florida State may be willing to take the league to court to challenge the grant of rights, but legal battles take time and money — and this is one the ACC will fight, since it wants to keep FSU and believes in the strength of the GOR document. And how attractive will FSU be to other conferences with those legal questions hovering over them?
As for the money, Florida State has hired JPMorgan Chase to look at all their financials, projecting all the way out to 2043, and has also partnered with a private equity firm to help with cash flow.
If there is no landing spot, Florida State wants to get more movement toward an uneven revenue distribution in the ACC that would give them a larger share of the television revenue pie based on what the school believes is its worth to the overall contract. As president Richard McCullough told ESPN earlier this week, “My No. 1 goal is to stay in the ACC, but at some point, it becomes difficult for me to do what I’m supposed to do for athletics at Florida State.”
Presidents have already approved a success initiative model, which would reward on-field success in football and basketball. But shifting revenue distribution based on ratings and media metrics has not gained the traction Florida State believes it warrants. It remains uncertain whether any ACC president is willing to change their mind on that specific issue, especially given how vocal the Seminoles have been about it – both publicly and behind closed doors. — Andrea Adelson
Does this mean anything for Notre Dame?
No, not at this time.
Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick has long repeated the same three factors that could contribute to the university’s position as an independent becoming “unsustainable.”
Those include: the loss of a committed broadcast partner; the loss of a fair route into the postseason; or such an adverse financial consequence that would force it to reconsider.
In spite of all of the drama swirling around Notre Dame, nothing has impacted those particular factors. Notre Dame still has a strong partnership with NBC as its broadcast partner that runs through the 2025 season. It recently announced a renewed commitment to Under Armour. It also remains a partial member of the ACC in football and has a contract with the league stating that if the Irish were to relinquish their independence, it would be for the ACC.
ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said recently at the league’s media days that he knows how much the Irish value their independence. Notre Dame still remains the most valuable property remaining on the Monopoly board – and it’s still not for sale. — Dinich
What does this mean for the Big Ten schedule in 2024?
The “Flex Protect Plus” football schedule model, which the Big Ten had painstakingly put together in anticipation of a 16-team league in 2024, will need to be tweaked but not blown up. The league will not be starting from scratch here.
Many of the same principles will apply for the 18-team model, including the goals of protecting key games and rotating the others. The Big Ten has remained committed to nine-game league schedules, and both Oregon and Washington come from a league that plays nine. Still, the math gets a bit trickier with two more members. Divisions are not expected to be added in the 18-team model. The general philosophy behind the schedule model isn’t expected to change much.
“It comes down to asking the question: ‘What makes us a conference? What makes us feel like we’re really tied together in a meaningful way?'” Big Ten chief operating officer Kerry Kenny told ESPN in June when the 2024 and 2025 schedules were announced. “Playing each other more and not less has some impact.”
The initial 2024/2025 schedules included 11 protected matchups. A 12th is now virtually guaranteed with Washington and Oregon, bitter rivals who have played many memorable games. But the Big Ten “capped” the number at 11, Kenny said, because, “The more protected matchups you’ve included in the model, the less flexibility you had to create a really balanced model for everybody.”
Oregon and Washington will be all-sports additions to the Big Ten next year, but football is the focus now because schedules are done in advance to allow for planning and logistics. — Adam Rittenberg
What is the USC/UCLA reaction to adding two Pacific Time Zone schools?
Some combination of relief and begrudging acceptance. As Chip Kelly pointed out at UCLA practice Friday, as other teams scramble to figure out where they’ll play in the coming years, it’s nice to know where your home will be. Kelly joked that perhaps the Big Ten could put the former Pac-12 teams in a pod and the Big Ten teams in a pod and have the winners play each other at the end of the year, perhaps in the Rose Bowl. If it was up to him, though, he’d scrap the whole thing and start anew.
“I’d be for, we’re all in the same division. Put 60 of us in the same division,” Kelly said. “Do it like the NFL where there’s NFC West, NFC north, NFC south. I think we should all be in, there should be one conference in all college football and then just break it up like they do the professional game. Based on geography. That makes the most sense. There’s your travel question. There’s all those other questions, but no one asks me.”
Given the kind of chess move the jump to the Big Ten was for both L.A. schools and how it upended the sport, there was some expectation that USC and UCLA were going to benefit greatly, not just the influx of money as part of the conference’s new TV deal, but also from a resources and recruiting standpoint too.
Oregon has perhaps been the greatest threat to the Trojans in recent years in terms of adding talent, either through the transfer portal or high school ranks. A jump to one of the premier conferences in the sport, with a chance to play in high-profile games, was going to be a significant recruiting tool in USC’s and UCLA’s favor. Now, Oregon and Washington will be able to sell the same thing to recruits and transfers too.
From a logistics standpoint, I’m sure there are those who will be grateful both L.A. schools will have more than one West Coast conference game to play in every year. UCLA and USC don’t have some storied history playing against Oregon or Washington, but as the Pac-12 crumbles, carrying over some semblance of continuity isn’t the worst scenario either. — Paolo Uggetti
What happens to the Rose Bowl?
Conference realignment didn’t change the Rose Bowl’s storied partnership with the Big Ten and Pac-12 — the College Football Playoff did. Last year’s game between Penn State and Utah was the last, true historic matchup between those leagues. Moving forward, the Rose Bowl has fully integrated with the CFP and will host a semifinal this season, followed by quarterfinals in each of the first two seasons of the 12-team playoff.
The teams in those games will be slotted based on the selection committee’s rankings. While it’s possible there could be a Big Ten team involved by chance, the guaranteed matchup between the two leagues ended when the Nittany Lions beat the Utes. — Dinich
Is the Big Ten done expanding?
Since June 2010, the Big Ten has expanded four times: Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland, UCLA and UCLA, and now Oregon and Washington. The superconference/consolidation era is clearly here, and it would be surprising if the Big Ten remained at 18 members for very long. The Big Ten could again look to the West Coast for Stanford and Cal, but neither has been overly appealing to the league or its media partners in these last two expansion rounds. What would change going forward?
The likelier scenario has commissioner Tony Petitti looking to the East and the ACC, if the league starts to splinter in the wake of Florida State’s exit-strategy comments this week. North Carolina and Virginia would be primary targets, sources told ESPN. Both are premier public schools and would excite a group of Big Ten presidents and chancellors that still places a premium on “cultural fit.” Florida State would be more of a stretch, and league sources cautioned against an immediate push. But FSU would give the Big Ten a presence in the Southeast, which former Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany mentioned would be valuable way back in 2010.
The Big Ten’s ultimate expansion prize remains Notre Dame, and efforts will continue to lure the school into the league. Could longtime ND rival Stanford be dangled as an enticement? Perhaps. The Big Ten will need some patience as Notre Dame doesn’t want to relinquish its independence in football. Perhaps things change when Notre Dame has more administrative changes. Athletic director Jack Swarbrick will step down in 2024, and university president the Rev. John Jenkins turns 70 in December. — Rittenberg
What does this mean for the College Football Playoff?
In the 12-team format, the six highest-ranked conference champions will receive a bid, along with the next six highest-ranked teams.
If there’s no Pac-12 champion because there’s no Pac-12, that’s something that will have to be revisited. What’s awkward about it is Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff is one of the 10 FBS commissioners who makes those decisions, along with Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick.
It was too early following the news for any concrete answers as to if and how the model might change, and how it could impact conference champions. “I certainly understand why people need to ask the question,” CFP executive director Bill Hancock told ESPN. ” The fact is that it’s too soon to say. The CFP management committee and board of managers will discuss the future if and when it becomes appropriate. Of course, none of this will affect the four-team playoff this year.” — Dinich
Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s get into it.
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1
What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 15
11: 1
You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?
It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?
Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2
The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan
You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell
Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2
Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.
That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez
The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.
But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen
Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3
The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.
That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.
Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney
Who will win the AL West?
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8
Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers
Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo
How many games will the Rockies lose?
119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1
We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.
Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.
Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.
Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.
Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.
Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.
Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.
Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.
Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.
Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.
Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.
Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.
Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney
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Bradford Doolittle
The last Stock Watch of the regular season is here. Before the next one, we’ll know who the 2025 World Series champion is, and will be knee-deep in another Hot Stove season.
With the Milwaukee Brewers topping the watch for the second month in a row, let’s use that surprising fact to make a couple of observations about this year’s competition:
• Payroll matters but it’s still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball’s economic disparity. Not that we shouldn’t seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win.
• There’s a solid chance we might see a champion we’ve never seen before. There are just five remaining teams with a goose egg in the World Series championship column. One of them is the Brewers, whose odds for ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, both likely playoff teams. Taken together, these three clubs have around a 28% shot at this year’s title. In other words, there’s better than a 1-in-4 chance that some long-suffering fan base will get to have a parade in a couple of months.
With the MLB trade deadline more than a month old, let’s take a look at the most recent fortunes of all 30 teams, with an eye on how their moves (or non-moves) have worked (or not worked) so far.
Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: Milwaukee was quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has been so-so in a mid-leverage role. Yet Milwaukee has baseball’s best record and run differential since deadline day. Sometimes you don’t mess with a good thing. Should the injury to closer Trevor Megill linger, you might argue Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in pursuit of a back-end reliever. First, we ought to wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling roster holes.
Win average: 93.8 (Last: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 7.8%)
Deadline aftermath: Dave Dombrowski went with quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has mashed while playing mostly every day in center field. Jhoan Duran hasn’t been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, while changing the dynamic of the bullpen, now and looking ahead to October. It took Duran a month to move into a tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he didn’t allow a walk or a homer. The additions continue even after the stinging loss of Zack Wheeler. Conceding nothing, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Last: 13.6%)
Deadline aftermath: Chicago’s quiet deadline rankled pundits, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the struggles of the few additions the Cubs did make, and the ongoing distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop trading for infielders at the deadline. Last year, they picked up Isaac Paredes, who flailed as a Cub, then moved on and went back to his typical self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from an above-average hitter with Minnesota to borderline unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the dish, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 15.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Los Angeles’ deadline approach was more similar to a team straddling the add/subtract fence than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champ angling for a repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Mostly the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the past month. Their revived hurlers have kept the Dodgers in the elite tier. Over the remainder of the season, if L.A. can match its first-half hitting with its second-half pitching, the Dodgers will hit the postseason as the behemoth we always thought they were.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: The Tigers went heavy on pitching at the deadline with a particular focus on positive regression candidates. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The returns on starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played middling ball over the past month, largely due to an offense that has fallen off a bit and went unaddressed in the trade market. The Tigers are fine in the American League Central race, but find themselves in a tight battle for a No. 1 seed with Toronto.
Win average: 91.7 (Last: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Last: 5.3%)
Deadline aftermath: A leaky bullpen has kept the Blue Jays from keeping their AL East rivals at bay, and, as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a road team in the wild-card round. The deadline impact has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But on a relief staff that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a below-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.
Win average: 90.6 (Last: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Padres overtook the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to slip back behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has accomplished its primary objective, which was to shore up roster holes and raise San Diego’s floor. The exception to that description — the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen — looks very much like a ceiling raiser. The only quibble might be in the rotation, where those the Padres dealt (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have together outpitched those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.
Win average: 90.5 (Last: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Last: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 8.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Yankees’ trajectory changed sharply over the second half of August, a month they exited as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Behind a reinvigorated offense and a steady rotation, New York is back in contention for the AL East crown, a No. 1 seed, the whole pinstriped ball of wax. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to pull it together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in an even more heightened state of anxiety than usual. If not for the solid work done so far by ex-Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work bolstering the relief group might look even worse.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Last: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Last: 5.5%)
Deadline aftermath: Boston’s pitching staff additions of Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “‘all-in!” for a team that by the end of July had positioned itself for a playoff run. May and earlier in-season addition Jordan Hicks haven’t had an impact, but Matz has been lights out in a surging bullpen. Boston continues to play well, and the promotion of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a jolt of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were in short supply. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost any ground since we last convened.
Win average: 88.1 (Last: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Last: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Last: 6.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Whatever you thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so you can’t blame them, and it’s likely that without them, things would be worse. Still, the Astros enter the stretch run in a more precarious position than they’ve been in a long time.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Last: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Mets enter September with one of baseball’s hottest offenses. They also have one of MLB’s coldest pitching staffs. Thus, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That isn’t great, but if the bullpen is rolling … well, it’s not. The relievers went 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline pickups Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month to get this right before the playoffs.
Win average: 86.5 (Last: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The process — acquiring Arizona’s corner infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — was deservedly lauded. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s Mariners debut was 0.708, mostly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suarez. It’s 0.659 since. Meh! Seattle has treaded water since the deadline splash, ranking 18th in runs, despite a huge month from Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh‘s homer-fest. The Mariners need their big guns to get hot at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff slot, is assured.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 2.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Despite lackluster offense, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, coming away with relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The big prize was starter Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until the injury to Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers have leaned on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most if not all of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Royals continue to undermine excuses from less aggressive clubs in baseball’s lower economic tiers. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of negative regression performers down from 2024, and glaring, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their floor with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. End result: The Royals have plenty to play for during the stretch run. A playoff return remains in play.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Last: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The Reds’ acquisition of starter Zack Littell struck me as odd and, frankly, it still does. He has been pretty good. But Cincinnati has plenty of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the pickups for the lineup have been chef’s kiss good. Miguel Andujar has hit like peak-level Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has flashed his elite defense and paired it with a level of offense that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because of deadline deficiencies.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Deadline aftermath: The Giants went into soft unload mode around the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and while their probabilities made the playoffs possible, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed — they’re still a fringe playoff candidate — but some of their pickups have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, while swinging at everything, has flashed some pop and is getting acclimated to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they’ll be next season, and have given their fans reasons to watch the stretch run with interest.
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about setting themselves up for the next season while not totally raising the white flag on the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have chugged along on the same track, though staying the course has come with dwindling playoff odds. The new catchers — Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes — have together hit less than a pre-universal-DH pitcher. But the various departures have created openings for Feduccia, Carson Williams and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miracle wild-card berth is not, as yet, totally out of the question.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long shot postseason bid would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years off and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Besides, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the major hitting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to indefinite leave, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes remain slightly alive. That’s the beauty of this year’s AL. It’s hard to play yourself out of contention.
Win average: 78.9 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: You can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks traded more right-now value at the deadline but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller and Grichuk have … helped? It’s hard to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez replacement Blaze Alexander has taken off on offense, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten hot thanks to the work of off-the-radar types.
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, dealing free agents-to-be and forgoing short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, no matter if the team on the field clings to fringe contention. The losses of those dealt, even closer Helsley, given how he has performed in New York, haven’t had any effect on the short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to plug along in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In some ways, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had just politely bottomed out.
Win average: 75.8 (Last: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Marlins played it casual at the deadline rather than kicking the can down the road by dealing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about getting better and creating opportunity for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who put up a huge August in the relative vacuum of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the aspirants won’t be deadline pickup Ryan Gusto, who was torched over three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder impingement. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.
Win average: 75.4 (Last: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Angels’ soft add around the deadline has actually worked, to a degree, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia have been airtight. Thus a bottom-five bullpen has been middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and an 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have rendered that development moot. The early returns on ex-Yankee Oswald Peraza haven’t been good, as not only has he struggled to keep his OPS over 0.500, but he gave up eight runs on the mound during a mop-up appearance. The Angels’ season appears headed nowhere.
Win average: 74.2 (Last: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card candidacy. You don’t get to erase bad months from the record, but it’s worth considering that outside of that plunge, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The splash at the deadline — trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return — was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game figure in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are getting good.
Win average: 74.1 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. The injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial underperformances, like that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been hot as a firecracker since the break, which has been encouraging, but this season has mostly been one of Atlanta becoming a frequent stop on the DFA merry-go-round. The only note you might offer about the deadline is that pending free agents Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna should have been moved. It’s been a rough season.
Win average: 73.8 (Last: 76.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Unsurprisingly, the Twins have floundered since their aggressive offloading approach to the deadline. With this season lost, Minnesota’s short-term focus is on the young players it picked up during the flurry of activity. The initial results for James Outman, Alan Roden, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been subpar across the board, but it’s early days and that list just represents those who have reached the majors. In any event, when you look at the exploits of ex-Twins like Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa on their new teams, you can’t say Minnesota hasn’t impacted the pennant races.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 72.3, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Orioles turned the page on a disappointing season at the deadline and added depth to their system in the process. The on-field results haven’t improved since the reshuffling, though the rotation had a nice run of outings. It’s all about next season. The Orioles’ August was a mixed bag in that regard. On the downside, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser struggled last month. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers reached the majors, with Beavers in particular getting off to a good start. The Orioles won’t return to the postseason, but they can enter the offseason with positive momentum.
Win average: 71.6 (Last: 69.9, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: With the Pirates’ focus, as ever, on the distant horizon, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s post-deadline roster has stayed competitive. The rotation remains the unit to watch, and August was not without interest for that group. Paul Skenes continues to build a Cy Young case, but for once, he’s not the biggest reason for excitement. That would be Bubba Chandler, technically a reliever for now, who has looked terrific over a pair of bulk outings. After eight scoreless frames to start his career, Chandler has a lifetime ERA even better than Skenes’. Hey, in Pittsburgh you get your kicks where you can.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 64.5, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Nationals’ never-ending rebuild feels stalled, perhaps even more so after another deadline of dealing veteran talent. Whether or not Washington got fair return in its deals is almost beside the point. When will it end? If the young foundational players were picking up momentum, it might feel different. But CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House are among those who have lagged since the All-Star break. If ever there was a franchise in need of a spark, it’s this one right now. The offense has been brutal, but the pitching, especially the rotation, has been even worse. Sigh.
Win average: 59.6 (Last: 62.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The White Sox were playing pretty well at the time of the deadline, but the month since has not been kind. Still, the record is neither here nor there, it’s more about individual performances right now. And through that prism, there is plenty to like about Chicago’s direction. Kyle Teel has been a well-rounded force at the plate. Colson Montgomery has displayed explosive power. There’s more, but you get the idea. The downer is the possible season-ending injury to Luis Robert Jr., whose combined slash over the past two seasons is .223/.288/.372. Maybe this is just what he is now.
Win average: 45.9 (Last: 44.3, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Colorado continues to lose games at a prodigious pace, but it’s a less frantic pace than earlier this season. Progress? Maybe not. During August, the Colorado rotation posted an ERA of 6.54 and allowed a .309/.381/.514 slash line. Before you start adjusting the rotation numbers for Coors Field, don’t bother. Those were the road numbers. The overall numbers can’t be published without a parental warning. One quest remains: Hunter Goodman‘s 2.7 bWAR places him third in Colorado history among primary catchers. The record is Chris Iannetta’s 3.2 in 2008. Setting any kind of positive record amid this mess would be something.
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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong will get his second consecutive game off Wednesday, with manager Craig Counsell saying he wants to give him a “physical and mental” break amid his struggles in the second half of the season.
Crow-Armstrong, 23, wasn’t in the starting lineup against the Braves on Wednesday after coming off the bench to play defense late in Tuesday’s game. The Cubs are off Thursday, giving Crow-Armstrong a full three days between starts.
“We’re giving him a real break,” Counsell said before Wednesday’s series finale against the Braves. “Just to give him a physical and mental break, and then going into the last 3½ weeks of the season, hopefully a little bit refreshed.”
Crow-Armstrong is hitting .212 with a .624 OPS since the All-Star break, but he has struggled even more over the past month, hitting .163 with only five extra-base hits and five walks to 29 strikeouts since Aug.1.
“I looked at this early in the [recent] road trip, thinking where could we get Pete a break,” Counsell said. “As the road trip continued, it became apparent that we should use this opportunity to give him a break.”
The last six games of the Cubs’ nine-game trip were played in spacious stadiums in San Francisco and Denver, where Crow-Armstrong covered a lot of ground in the outfield. He went 6-for-35 during the trip before getting Tuesday and Wednesday off.
“Hopefully it’s a reset for Pete,” Counsell said.
Super-utility player Willi Castro will start in Crow-Armstrong’s place in center against the Braves on Wednesday, and regular designated hitter Seiya Suzuki is starting right field in place of Kyle Tucker who left Tuesday’s game because of tightness in his left calf. Counsell said the team would have an update on Tucker’s status before Friday’s game against the Washington Nationals.
Newly acquired switch hitter Carlos Santana will get his first start with the Cubs, taking Suzuki’s place as the designated hitter.
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