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“Tumbling” records in Antarctica must be taken more seriously because of their “cascading” global impacts, a group of scientists asked by the Foreign Office to investigate the “unprecedented” changes has warned today.

After enormous icebergs up to a quarter the size of Wales appeared to break off with “increasing frequency”, the Foreign Office commissioned the review, which has confirmed extreme events there are happening more often and are more intense.

Jane Rumble, head of polar regions at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, said: “What happens in Antarctica does not stay in Antarctica.

“It has global consequences and therefore it’s important to raise awareness of what Antarctica is going through.”

Professor Martin Siegert, glaciologist at the University of Exeter, said they were extremely worried about “the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme events and the cascading influences that they have in other areas”.

He said we should be “deeply concerned about the environment of Antarctica in the years that are coming under continued fossil fuel burning”.

They wanted to “provoke the scientific community… to start taking extreme events in Antarctica a lot more seriously than they have been”, added Prof Siegert.

More on Antarctica

“There’s a real danger, I think, in the years coming ahead that Antarctica starts to behave in a way that looks a lot more like the Arctic… that it stops acting as a refrigerant for the planet, and it starts acting as a radiator.”

The scientists are worried about three extremes in particular.

Glacier on Monday, March 11, 2019 in Cuverville Island, Antarctica. (Ric Tapia via AP)
Image:
Glacier in 2019 in Cuverville Island, Antarctica. (Ric Tapia via AP)


‘Absolutely enormous heatwave’

The most extreme heatwave ever recorded globally struck East Antarctica in March 2022, sending surface temperatures soaring 38.5°C hotter than they should be.

Instead of an expected roughly -50C, they reached -10C.

Had it happened in summer, it would have begun melting the surface of the ice sheets, which scientists said they have never seen before.

The heatwave was “absolutely enormous”, said Prof Siegert. The temperature was not only far above the average but also far hotter even than previous records.

Temperatures in Antarctica were almost 40C above normal in March 2022
Image:
Temperatures in Antarctica were almost 40C above normal in March 2022

‘Tumbling’ sea ice cover

Records for sea ice cover have been “tumbling” since around 2016.

New record lows have been set three times in just seven years.

“Even the years that haven’t been record-breaking have been unusual based on what we have learned to expect based on previous decades,” said Dr Caroline Holmes, a polar climate scientist at British Antarctic Survey.

As sea ice, which floats on the ocean surface, melts, it stops reflecting heat and light from the sun and reveals more of the dark sea surface, which absorbs heat.

The chart below shows “just how unusual” sea ice cover in 2023 has been.

Antarctica sea ice cover fell dramatically in 2023
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Colorado University
Pic: Zachary Labe
Image:
Antarctica sea ice cover fell dramatically in 2023
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Colorado University
Pic: Zachary Labe

Sea ice concentration, February 2023
Image:
Sea ice concentration, February 2023

Sea ice cover at the start of 2023, in Antarctic summer, was at “record low already, but then it has dropped really a long way from anything that we’ve previously expected”.

“We’re seeing really a new world in Antarctic sea ice,” Dr Holmes added.

The extremes are not isolated but affect extremes in the ocean and the atmosphere too, she said.

‘Dramatic’ ice shelf collapse

The scientists also warned of the “dramatic” collapse of ice shelves Larsen A and B on the Antarctic Peninsula, and the Conger Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, which can push up atmospheric and ice temperatures.

Ice shelves are the part of a glacier or ice sheet that has flowed out to sea where they float on the surface.

“We’ve seen dramatic changes in the extent of ice shelves around Antarctica over the years,” said Dr Anna Hogg, associate professor in the School of Earth and Environment at Leeds University.

The melt “impacts populations that live around coastlines all around the world” via coastal flooding erosion and storm surges, she said.

Images from 2002 show ponds forming on the surface of the Larsen B ice shelf followed by its rapid collapse
Image:
Images from 2002 show ponds forming on the surface of the Larsen B ice shelf followed by its rapid collapse

Dr Hogg also warned of “unprecedented” melting of the surface of the ice that sits on land, which can either run off to the ocean, warm the snow pack or seep down and lubricate the underside of the ice, allowing it to flow faster into the ocean, which can melt it from beneath.

Melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have raised global sea level by 1.8cm since the 1990s and are matching worst-case climate warming scenarios.

If these rates continue, the ice sheets are expected to raise sea levels by a further 17cm and expose an additional 16 million people to annual coastal flooding by the end of the century.

The impact of climate change

Because of Antarctica’s harsh environment and remote location, there is less data available to unequivocally link events such as these with human-induced climate change.

But Prof Siegert said: “I think it’s reasonable to assume that with the Antarctic heat event that we’ve seen, that is the sort of thing that has been expected with global heating because of burning fossil fuels and it has happened.”

Watch The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Iran declares five days of mourning for president – as US says he has ‘blood on his hands’

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Iran declares five days of mourning for president - as US says he has 'blood on his hands'

Iran’s president and foreign minister have died after their helicopter crashed in mountains.

The deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi and minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were confirmed by officials after rescuers found the chopper’s burned wreckage on Monday morning, more than 12 hours after it came down in bad weather.

Iranian media said the crash in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province killed eight people in all, including three crew members on the helicopter, which Iran purchased in the early 2000s.

Five days of national mourning have been declared by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

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Rescuers reach helicopter crash site

Funeral processions will be held in several Iranian cities on Tuesday.

The bodies of Mr Raisi and Mr Amirabdollahian will be flown to the central Iranian city of Qom, where the late president studied, and then brought to the capital Tehran, where Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is expected to lead congregational funeral prayers.

Rescue team works following a crash of a helicopter carrying Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, in Varzaqan.
Pic: WANA/Reuters
Image:
Search teams at the crash site. Pic: WANA/Reuters

Mr Raisi, Iran’s eighth president since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, will be buried in the northeastern city of Mashhad on Thursday.

US State department spokesperson Matt Miller said Mr Raisi “has blood on his hands” as the former hardline cleric was “a brutal participant in the repression of the Iranian people for nearly four decades”.

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Iran state TV confirms president’s death

Mr Miller said Mr Raisi “was involved in numerous horrific human rights abuses, including playing a key role in the extra judicial killing of thousands of political prisoners in 1988”.

“Some of the worst human rights abuses occurred during his tenure as president, especially the human rights abuses against the women and girls of Iran,” he added.

The US approach to Iran “will not change” because of Mr Raisi’s death, Mr Miller said.

Image:
Iran media says the crash happened in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province

Iran‘s Mehr news agency reported “all passengers of the helicopter carrying the Iranian president and foreign minister were martyred”.

State TV said it had smashed into a mountain. There has been no official word on the cause, but there was thick fog in the area.

“President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash… unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead,” an official told Reuters.

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President of Iran killed in crash

Drone footage appeared to show the tail of the helicopter and scattered debris.

The search involving civilian and military teams had been hampered by fog and the remoteness of the crash site.

First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has been put in temporary charge and new elections must be held within 50 days

Read more:
Profile: A hardliner known for his role in mass execution

Iranian TV showed the president on board the helicopter
Image:
Iranian TV showed the president on the helicopter during a trip to Iran’s border with Azerbaijan

TV picture showed thick fog at the search site. Pic: IRNA
Image:
TV pictures from Sunday showed thick fog at the search site. Pic: IRNA

Mr Raisi, 63, who was seen as a frontrunner to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei, was travelling from Iran’s border with Azerbaijan where he had inaugurated a dam with the country’s president.

The governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, officials, and bodyguards, are also believed to be among those killed.

The helicopter was travelling in a convoy of three aircraft, and Iranian media initially described it as a “hard landing”.

Iranian news agency IRNA said Mr Raisi was flying in an American-made Bell 212 helicopter purchased in the early 2000s.

State media says this is the last-known picture of the helicopter carrying the president. Pic: IRNA
Image:
State media says this is the last-known picture of the helicopter. Pic: IRNA

Pic: IRNA
Image:
The Iranian president was inaugurating a dam with the Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev (right). Pic: IRNA

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the world leaders to react to the president’s death.

He said he was “deeply saddened and shocked” and offered “heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran”.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani expressed “great sadness and great sorrow” in a statement.

Pakistan leader Shehbaz Sharif, posting on X, offered “deepest condolences and sympathies to the Iranian nation on this terrible loss”.

Mohammad Mokhber.
File pic: AP
Image:
Mohammad Mokhber has been put in interim charge. File pic: AP

Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a “huge tragedy” and “a difficult, irreparable loss”.

Mr Raisi was elected in 2021 in a vote that had the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history.

He previously served in several roles in Iran’s judicial system, including as deputy prosecutor. He was sanctioned by the US over the mass execution of political prisoners at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988.

A perilous moment for Iran – but don’t expect a change to foreign policy

This is a delicate time for Iran.

President Raisi was the second most important man in Iran, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

His death, now confirmed, will have far-reaching consequences.

Although Khamenei has tried to reassure the country in recent hours, the regime will know this is a perilous moment that must be handled carefully.

There are mechanisms to protect the regime in events like this and the Revolutionary Guard, which was founded in 1979 precisely for that purpose, will be a major player in what comes next.

In the immediate term, vice-president Mohammed Mokhber will assume control and elections will be held within 50 days.

Read the rest of Alistair’s analysis

His time in charge included major protests over Mahsa Amini – the woman who died after she was arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly.

Iran also took the unprecedented decision in April to launch a drone and missile attack on Israel.

Sky’s Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall said Mr Raisi was not a universally popular figure and that many inside Iran will celebrate his death.

He said the country’s approach to foreign affairs after his death was likely to be “business as usual”.

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Iranian protesters express ‘joy’ over death of President Ebrahim Raisi in helicopter crash

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Iranian protesters express 'joy' over death of President Ebrahim Raisi in helicopter crash

Iranian protesters have expressed “joy” over the death of President Ebrahim Raisi who was dubbed the “Butcher of Tehran”.

Speaking to Sky News’ The World With Yalda Hakim, three Iranians spoke on the condition of anonymity over fears of being tracked down by the country’s regime.

A protest leader – who is currently in hiding – suggested Sunday’s crash, that also killed Iran’s foreign minister, was “pre-planned”.

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Rescuers reach helicopter crash site

“We may not be across everything, but it’s been a known fact for a long time that Raisi was a serious contender to replace the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and perhaps some didn’t want that to happen.

“But all in all, this was very good news.

“All I can say is that the only thing that has made me truly happy over the past five years has been the news of Raisi’s death.”

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a meeting in Azerbaijan on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Ebrahim Raisi. Pic: Reuters

Mr Raisi’s time in charge included major protests over Mahsa Amini – the woman who died after she was arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly.

The US said Mr Raisi had “blood on his hands” as the former hardline cleric was “a brutal participant in the repression of the Iranian people for nearly four decades”.

Iran also took the unprecedented decision in April to launch a drone and missile attack on Israel.

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Iranians mourn death of president

A 23-year-old student – who has taken part in a number of protests – said: “The death of Raisi has made the people of Iran very happy.

“On the streets, people were handing out sweets, they were smiling at each other.

“That’s the extent to which this news has spread joy amongst people.”

Read more:
Who was hardliner Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi?
‘Butcher of Tehran’ had fearsome reputation – many will fear instability

Raisi’s death may not mean immediate change for Iran


Dominic Waghorn - Diplomatic editor

Dominic Waghorn

International affairs editor

@DominicWaghorn

From the voices speaking out on The World with Yalda Hakim from inside Iran there was a sense of celebration on the eve of the funeral of their dead president but also a sense of realism.

One dead president the fall of a regime does not make. That is the bitter truth for those brave Iranians speaking out and the millions of Iranians they represent. They detest a man who presided over a brutal crackdown on protests that saw hundreds killed on the streets, and thousands incarcerated, tortured, raped or killed after their arbitrary arrest.

But there are reasons for Iranians to find some hope in the news of the president’s death.

Analysts have compared the Iranian theocratic Islamic regime to the Soviet Union in its dying days.

It is ideologically bankrupt. Its people do not believe in what it stands for anymore. It is morally bankrupt too, after the brutal repression that crushed the Women, Life and Freedom protests. But it remains powerful, with many people on its payroll and it is hard to predict how or when it falls.

Iran’s people want one thing though, and its government the opposite, and that ultimately is impossible to sustain.

Raisi had a unique skill set. He was both a zealous idealogue and an ex-judge. A man who understood how both Iran’s judiciary and presidency works. He combined a passionate belief in the Iranian revolution with an expertise in how its regime operated.

It has been said many times in the last 24 hours that Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, will find another hardliner to replace him. There are plenty more where he came from.

But no one with quite his skills and expertise. That may not be important immediately but at the moment of greatest danger in the not so distant future when Khamenei dies, it could make all the difference.

With no anointed successor, the supreme leader’s passing could usher in a period of instability and weakness for the regime. Raisi was seen as a potential successor but also a powerful stabilising force as president in that perilous hiatus, someone who could hold the ring while the new order is established and power struggles fought out.

Raisi’s death may well not mean immediate change for Iran but it could ultimately hasten its end.

A housewife, who was beaten up for taking parting in the “Woman, Life, Protest” movements, said: “The public hatred towards this regime is not a secret to anyone.

“Raisi’s death proved that the pain that this inflicted on our people will one day hit them back.

“My personal reaction to the death of Raisi… I was very happy.

“I’m not upset at all. Even though I never wish death on anyone, but this man, not only did he not do anything for our nation, but he ordered the death of countless young innocent people.”

Following news of Mr Raisi’s death, US State department spokesperson Matt Miller said the Iranian president “was involved in numerous horrific human rights abuses, including playing a key role in the extra judicial killing of thousands of political prisoners in 1988”.

“Some of the worst human rights abuses occurred during his tenure as president, especially the human rights abuses against the women and girls of Iran,” he added.

The US approach to Iran “will not change” because of Mr Raisi’s death, Mr Miller said.

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President Raisi’s death a perilous moment for Iran regime – but don’t expect a change to foreign policy

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President Raisi's death a perilous moment for Iran regime - but don't expect a change to foreign policy

This is a delicate time for Iran. President Raisi was the second most important man in Iran, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

His death, now confirmed, will have far-reaching consequences.

Although Khamenei has tried to reassure the country in recent hours, the regime will know this is a perilous moment that must be handled carefully.

Live updates – Iranian president killed in crash

There are mechanisms to protect the regime in events like this and the Revolutionary Guard, which was founded in 1979 precisely for that purpose, will be a major player in what comes next.

In the immediate term, vice-president Mohammed Mokhber will assume control and elections will be held within 50 days.

Mokhber isn’t as close to the supreme leader as Raisi was, and won’t enjoy his standing, but he has run much of Khamenei’s finances for years and is credited with helping Iran evade some of the many sanctions levied on it.

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Drone footage of helicopter crash site

Raisi’s successor will most likely be the chosen candidate of the supreme leader and certainly another ultra-conservative hardliner – a shift back to the moderates is highly unlikely.

Likewise, we shouldn’t expect any significant change in Iran’s foreign activities or involvement with the war in Gaza. It will be business as usual, as much as possible.

However, after years of anti-government demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, this might be a moment for the protest movement to rise up and take to the streets again.

Read more:
Who was hardliner Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi?
‘Butcher of Tehran’ had fearsome reputation – many will fear instability
Hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi wins landslide victory

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Islamic State may seek to take advantage

There are also many dissident groups inside Iran, including an off-shoot of Islamic State – they might seek to take advantage of this situation.

Raisi became president in 2021 at the second time of asking and only with a turnout of 41%, the lowest since the 1979 revolution.

The president is seen as a frontrunner to replace Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (pictured) when he dies. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The president was considered one of the two frontrunners to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamanei (pictured). Pic: Reuters

He was not a universally popular figure and many inside Iran will celebrate his death.

Consequences for supreme leader

Longer term, Raisi’s death will have consequences for the supreme leader.

He was considered one of the two frontrunners to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamanei on his death – the other being Khamanei’s son Mojtaba.

For religious and conservative Iranians, Raisi’s death will be mourned; for many though, it will be the passing of a man who had blood on his hands.

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