Fantasy baseball: Trends, insights to watch down the stretch
It’s a critical time for fantasy managers, and not merely because there are only 46 days, or just under seven weeks, of baseball remaining in which for them to mount a comeback in their league standings.
The trade deadline arrives in ESPN leagues in two days, set for Friday at noon ET, and certainly is just around the corner for the majority of formats that either use our League Manager game or play offsite. Contenders need to quickly make their trades to strengthen their rosters for the stretch run, while rebuilders are running out of time to pare off their nonessential parts for future talent. Both, too, need to evaluate the talent they have on hand, whether to determine whether players have any remaining value for this season, or where they might stand entering 2024.
In any of those scenarios, forecasting ahead is critical, but especially so for those evaluating trades. What can we expect to see down baseball’s stretch run? Here are some of the things that most pique my interest:
Ryan Helsley will have a scheduled Wednesday minor league rehabilitation skipped, after he experienced renewed soreness in his forearm. His recovery was not only important in the St. Louis Cardinals’ chase for rest-of-2023 saves — the team is a middle-of-the-pack 7-6 since the trade deadline with a near-even run differential, signaling a bullpen that might not be completely devoid of save chances — but also for the team’s 2024 plans. Helsley was sometimes rumored a trade candidate when the Cardinals’ playoff hopes faded, and he’s eligible for arbitration after the season. Will he be back? It might not matter much for fantasy purposes, unless he can return before year’s end and maintain his pre-injury elite fastball velocity.
Mookie Betts needs four more games at shortstop to qualify there for 2024, and while he hasn’t appeared there since July 6, three days before Chris Taylor’s return from the injured list and 20 days before Amed Rosario’s acquisition from the Cleveland Guardians, he’d be a rare outfield-second base-shortstop triple qualifier if he gets to 20 defensive games played at the latter. Betts’ 5.8 Wins Above Replacement would match Ben Zobrist’s 2012 number for a season in which the player appeared in at least 20 defensive games in the outfield and at both second base and shortstop, assuming Betts reaches that shortstop threshold. In the rotisserie era (since 1980), only six players have managed a 2 WAR season while meeting those position qualification thresholds: Randy Velarde (1995), Zobrist (2012-14), Marwin Gonzalez (2017-18), Enrique Hernandez (2018), David Fletcher (2019) and Taylor (2021). Currently the fifth-best scorer (423 fantasy points) and ninth-best on the Player Rater, Betts would be quite the attractive 2024 first-round pick with triple eligibility. Unfortunately, I suspect that he is not quite going to get there, unless Rosario and/or Taylor gets hurt.
Speaking of position eligibility, Bryce Harper is eight games away from qualifying at first base for 2024, though he has played 12 of his past 23 games there, giving him an excellent chance of gaining it. I’d also anticipate him to return to right field for 2024, meaning he could be a dual-eligible player by mid-April.
Can Corbin Carroll become only the second 25-homer, 40-steal rookie in baseball history, joining Mike Trout? Carroll hasn’t been anywhere near the same hitter since the shoulder injury he battled just before the All-Star break, batting only .221/.315/.386 with four home runs and 12 stolen bases in his past 36 games. How he finishes this season will have a major say in his 2024 draft ranking, which was trending as a top-three overall pick for rotisserie leagues a few short weeks ago. Carroll, who ranks lower in fantasy points (336, tied for 21st) than on the Player Rater (eighth), could be too richly priced as a first-rounder in the former format if his finish is sluggish.
Speaking of recent funks, Elly De La Cruz has batted just .197/.254/.393 with a 40.5% strikeout rate and only two stolen bases in five attempts in 28 games since the All-Star break, after hitting .325/.363/.524 with a 28.9% K rate and 16 steals in 18 chances in 30 games before it. De La Cruz, a bit of a free swinger who does miss a good share, should’ve always been expected to hit an adjustment period, but it’d be a huge help for his 2024 ranking if he can show signs of shaking it in September. I think he’ll deliver those hints, and it’s not outrageous to call him a top-25 overall rotisserie and top-50 overall points-league pick for next year.
What is Esteury Ruiz for fantasy purposes? On Tuesday, he stole his 47th base, gaining one on major league leader Ronald Acuna Jr., putting Ruiz on a prorated-for-injury 67 steal pace, compared to 75 for Acuna. Unfortunately, the remainder of Ruiz’s offensive game is precisely that — offensive – as he’s dead last in baseball in average exit velocity (82.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (19.7%) and seventh-worst in Barrel rate (1.7% of his batted balls). Ruiz both walked and got more lift on the ball in the minors, and he’d need to show some of that to be anything more than a one-category rotisserie pick with minimal points-league value.
Max Fried has two solid starts and one so-so since his return from a forearm injury, and how he finishes the year will determine whether he’s again deserving of a top-20 fantasy starting pitcher ranking entering 2024. His fastball velocity and slider seem fine, so I’m leaning towards the optimist’s side.
Chicken parm seemed to cure all that ailed Anthony Volpe, right? Not necessarily, as he’s a .247/.332/.447 hitter with seven home runs in 53 games since that meal — which, much more importantly, spawned a needed tweak to his batting stance — which are hardly breakthrough-caliber numbers. Volpe has improved his chase rate by 6%, swinging-strike rate by 4% and his strikeout rate by 7% since the All-Star break compared to before it, all of which is great, but I need to see more before buying in on him being a 2024 fantasy superstar. He’ll probably be regarded a top-100 overall pick next spring, but his next seven weeks rank among the most important in the game as far as evaluating whether he’s deserving — I predict he ultimately will be.
Things were looking so good for Cristian Javier as June dawned, but he has a 6.66 ERA in his past 11 starts. There’s a wide range of outcomes for how he might finish this season, ranging from recapturing his sleeper Cy Young form to not even being a factor in the Houston Astros’ postseason rotation. I still like the guy’s stuff, but he needs a September turnaround in a bad way.
Bobby Witt Jr. is on a .349/.384/.671 tear with 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 14 attempts in 37 games since the beginning of July, with the most significant changes being his reduction in miss (2.5% better compared to his April-June) and strikeout rates (near-4% better). Witt is making a serious push toward first-round draft status, if he can maintain this level of improvement, and his Statcast expected .306 batting average and .402 wOBA during his hot streak suggests he can.
Can the San Francisco Giants steer their way into the National League playoffs with effectively two starting pitchers? Consider this: The Giants have extracted 21 combined starts from “openers” Scott Alexander, John Brebbia and Ryan Walker alone this season, and merely their appearances exceed the amount of openers used by any other team. The Giants also have a major league-leading 46 relief appearances of three-plus innings, from which those “bulk relievers” are a combined 8-11 with three saves, a 3.43 ERA and an average of 7.9 fantasy points in those outings. The major league average for a starting pitcher, to compare, is 8.5, which underscores how ordinary these Giants’ contributions for fantasy purposes. Only Logan Webb (sixth in fantasy points, 13th on the Player Rater), Camilo Doval (14th and 7th), Alex Cobb (79th in fantasy points) and Tyler Rogers (35th on the Player Rater) place among the top 100 pitchers in either scoring format. Sure, what the Giants are doing with their pitching is great for them, but it’s a headache for fantasy managers. The last thing we need is for them to make the playoffs like this, and other teams to adopt the template.
Randy Arozarena was coasting to his third consecutive 20/20 campaign, but he has chased non-strikes nearly 10% more often since the All-Star break than before it. He needs to reverse that if he’s going to maintain his status as a top-40 rotisserie and top-75 points-league pick for 2024.
With the Tampa Bay Rays now sporting four members of their 2023 projected Opening Day rotation on the injured list, three having succumbed to Tommy John surgery and the fourth having an internal brace repair as a method of avoiding a full UCL replacement, Taj Bradley should play a big role for the team down the stretch. Bradley hasn’t pitched that effectively this season (5.67 big-league and 9.13 Triple-A ERAs), but he has a 30% strikeout rate through his first 16 big-league starts and was widely regarded a top-15 pitching prospect entering the year. He’s one of the rookies I’m most closely watching in the hopes of a strong finish, in order to set himself up for a breakthrough 2024, and that he has totaled 35 fewer innings this year than last suggests that there shouldn’t be any workload cap in his immediate future.
Sticking with youngsters to evaluate, what is Ezequiel Duran, exactly? Sure, his plate approach leaves a lot to be desired, explaining how he’s a mere .216/.282/.324 hitter with a 31.2% strikeout rate in 33 games since the beginning of July. Duran’s long-term defensive position is the real question, but he’s going to need to straighten things out at the plate in these next seven weeks (and playoffs) to claim a firm 2024 role and be an intriguing fantasy breakout candidate.
CJ Abrams has made huge strides of late in relative obscurity with the last-place Washington Nationals, and maintaining them could set him up for a sneaky-good-for-rotisserie 2024. Since the beginning of July, Abrams has improved his chase rate by nearly 8%, his miss rate on swings by nearly 6% and has lowered his ground-ball rate by nearly 10% compared to the three months that preceded it, and he’s a .298 hitter with 21 stolen bases in 38 games during that time. He’s finally turning into the hitter that fantasy managers hoped he might be when he made the San Diego Padres’ 2022 Opening Day roster as a Fernando Tatis Jr. fill-in.
After a split north of the border, the 2025 World Series is headed to Hollywood.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays each won a game in Canada. Now, a pivotal Game 3 — with a marquee pitching match between a future Hall of Famer and yet another L.A. ace — will determine who has the advantage moving forward.
We’re posting live analysis all game long — and will add our takeaways after the final pitch.
Key links: World Series schedule, results
Live analysis
Gamecast: Follow the action pitch-by-pitch here
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Michael Rothstein
SANTA ANA, Calif. — The ex-wife of former Los Angeles Angels communications employee Eric Kay testified Monday that the organization was aware of his drug abuse multiple times before Kay supplied the drugs that killed Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs in 2019.
Camela Kay testified in the wrongful death civil suit that she witnessed team employees and players distributing nonprescription drugs to each other, including once on a team plane where she described opioid pills being handed out. Her testimony was repeatedly interrupted with objections by team attorneys.
Camela Kay’s testimony contradicted that of the first two witnesses of the trial — Eric Kay’s ex-boss Tim Mead, the former director of communications, and Angels traveling secretary Tom Taylor. Mead and Taylor both testified they were not aware of Kay’s drug use and whether he was providing drugs to players until after Skaggs’ accidental overdose death in a Texas hotel room in 2019.
Eric Kay was convicted in 2022 of giving a fentanyl-laced pill to Skaggs that led to his death. Kay is serving a 22-year federal prison sentence.
The Skaggs family is seeking $118 million and possible additional damages, claiming the team violated its rules requiring intervention, including potential dismissal, of any employee known to be abusing drugs. The family asserts that allowing Kay to interact with Skaggs, when both had addiction problems, set the conditions for disaster.
Plaintiff’s attorney Shawn Holley said in her opening statement last week that the Angels put Skaggs “directly in harm’s way” by continuing to employ Eric Kay.
Camela Kay testified that, after an attempted intervention Oct. 1, 2017, when the couple was still married, Mead and Taylor came to the Kay home. She said Mead returned the next day to check on Kay. During that time, she testified, Mead came out of the Kay bedroom holding “six or seven” baggies of about six white pills each. Camela Kay used her fingers to show the size of the baggies, about 1 inch square.
“I was shocked,” she testified. “I questioned [Mead] and asked where he got those. He said Eric directed him and told him they were in shoeboxes.”
She said Mead then put them on a coffee table in front of where Eric Kay was sitting with Taylor.
In his earlier testimony, Mead said he recalled “very little of that morning” and did not remember asking Kay where drugs were, whether he went into Kay’s bedroom or if he found drugs in baggies there. Angels attorneys said in opening remarks that the team was not responsible for Skaggs’ death and was not aware of Skaggs’ illicit drug use or that Kay had provided drugs to multiple players. The defense also argued that Skaggs had used drugs when he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks, whom he played for before his time with the Angels.
Angels attorney Todd Theodora said it was Skaggs who “decided to obtain the illicit pills and take the illicit drugs along with the alcohol the night he died.”
Camela Kay testified she continued to have concerns about her ex-husband’s substance abuse and that she shared those concerns with Mead and Taylor.
She also said she never saw improvement in Eric Kay, even after he was sent to outpatient therapy following the failed 2017 intervention. Camela Kay testified — backed by text messages shown in court — that she had multiple conversations with Angels benefits manager Cecilia Schneider to get her husband into an outpatient rehabilitation program in 2017.
Kay also testified she had been on the Angels’ plane in the past and that she observed conduct on the plane that caused her concern. When asked about the conduct, she said, “I had seen them passing out pills and drinking alcohol excessively.”
Asked plaintiff’s attorney Leah Graham: “When you say observed them, who is the them?”
“Players, clubbies,” Kay replied, indicating she believed she saw Xanax and Percocet being handed out. She later said she was kept away from players on the plane, “but you can see what’s going on behind you” and when she would go to the bathroom.
In 2013, Camela Kay said, Mead and Taylor were at the team hotel after Eric Kay had a panic attack at Yankee Stadium in New York. It was there, Camela Kay said, where Eric Kay told her he was taking five Vicodin per day. She testified Taylor and Mead were there and heard the admission.
In 2019, she testified Monday afternoon, Taylor drove Eric Kay home after an episode of strange behavior at the office. She said she found a pill bottle in the gutter where Taylor’s car was parked, and she emptied the contents in front of Taylor — about 10 blue pills that she told him were oxycodone. She said she told Taylor her husband needed help. Eric Kay later went with his sister to the hospital, where he spent three days before starting outpatient rehab. She quoted Kay’s sister as saying the pills were for Skaggs.
In earlier testimony, Taylor said he drove Eric Kay home but denied that Camela Kay dumped blue pills out in front of him. He also denied that he was told they were oxycodone and that they were for Skaggs.
Camela Kay’s testimony continues Tuesday.
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Alden Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES — MLB commissioner Rob Manfred called major league player involvement in the 2028 Olympics “a unique opportunity to market the sport worldwide” and sounded optimistic while talking through the logistics of how that might work when the Games come to L.A. in summer 2028.
“The way we’re thinking about it is it would be an extension of the All-Star break,” Manfred said Monday in an interview on ESPN Radio ahead of Game 3 of the World Series. “The All-Star break would begin, we’d play the All-Star Game, and then roll right into the Olympics thereafter. So, it’d be probably 11 days of break, all in, something like that.”
MLB’s All-Star Game, traditionally on a Tuesday, would likely take place July 11 in 2028. Baseball in the Olympics is currently scheduled to be played July 15-20. If it works out, baseball’s regular season would pause for close to two weeks in the middle of July. Manfred reiterated to ESPN’s Jon Sciambi and Buster Olney that separating it into two breaks “gets really complicated” and would ultimately cause an even longer break because of the additional travel days required.
Manfred also shed light Monday on MLB and ESPN’s potential new rights deal, which has yet to be announced, saying there will be “a Wednesday night package” while making reference to the league’s streaming arm, MLB.TV, being part of ESPN’s direct-to-consumer offerings.
“There’s going to be integration in terms of local broadcasts that I think the folks at ESPN, and certainly we, look at as an experiment that can be really helpful to the game as we move forward in a rapidly changing environment,” Manfred said.
Asked what has him most excited about MLB, Manfred said, “International.” The 2025 season began in Japan, one year after beginning in South Korea. Next year, the World Baseball Classic will be played. And two years after that, the hope is that some of the world’s best baseball players will participate in the Olympics for the first time since 1992.
Casey Wasserman, chairman of the LA 2028 organizing committee, made what Manfred called “a really compelling presentation” to league owners on the subject, calling it a one-time opportunity with the Games being held in the United States. Manfred said MLB is “in the phase now of working with the players’ association to get them on board with the program.”
“It’s a unique opportunity to market the sport worldwide, and you ought to take advantage of it,” Manfred said. “So, that’s why we’re continuing down the road. I think the owners really buy into that idea. It is a complicated path. We’ve made great progress with LA 2028 in terms of scheduling, exactly what the tournament would look like, how the qualifiers would look, how it would fit into the Olympic program.”
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