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Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years


= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth
, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value


Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m



These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year
, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.

San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.

Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?

New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.

Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.

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Yanks’ Cole rocked by Mets in 4-HR, 0-K outing

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Yanks' Cole rocked by Mets in 4-HR, 0-K outing

NEW YORK — Gerrit Cole‘s first start of the 2024 season went about as well as he and the Yankees could have hoped last week. His second outing Tuesday night against the Mets didn’t.

Cole was blasted over four innings, yielding six runs on seven hits in the Yankees’ 9-7 loss at Citi Field. He gave up four home runs, walked four and didn’t record a strikeout. It was the second time Cole didn’t register a strikeout in his career and the second time he allowed at least four home runs.

“Just disappointing,” Cole said. “Didn’t really give us a good chance to win tonight. Didn’t execute enough pitches. Just kind of dug us a hole.”

Two positives offered a silver lining: Cole threw 72 pitches, more than in any of his three rehab starts in the minors or his season debut, and the right-hander said he was healthy despite his fastball velocity decreasing after the first inning.

Cole’s fastball was 97 to 99 mph for the first time in 2024 in that first frame, an encouraging burst three months removed from being shut down with nerve irritation and edema in his right elbow. His first fastball in the second inning, however, was a 91.5 mph offering that Mark Vientos cracked for a home run. Cole didn’t throw a pitch harder than 95.5 mph for the remainder of his outing.

After the game, Cole insisted the drop-off was by design and that he was healthy. He explained he intentionally dialed back the velocity after issuing three walks and throwing 28 pitches as the Mets jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning because he believed the strategy would give him the best chance to work efficiently and avoid an early exit with a 75-pitch limit.

“It’s a bit like driving a car,” Cole, 33, said. “Too much clutch or too little clutch can slip you out of gear a little bit. So, obviously, it came out really tremendous in the first and had to make a lot of pitches. But the reality is we just weren’t in the strike zone enough. The objective is to try to get as deep in the ballgame as you can.”

Cole issued just one walk over his final three innings, but he couldn’t put hitters away. He induced just five whiffs while the Mets fouled off 11 pitches. Six balls hit into play traveled at least 101.5 mph. Vientos barreled two of those hard-hit balls for home runs — both on fastballs after Cole said he chose to shave velocity off the pitch.

“He’s still working back,” Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge said. “That’s our ace. That’s our guy. And I want him out there every single five days. Games like this happen, and you just got to move on and learn from it. He’ll be fine.”

Cole is slated to next pitch Sunday in Toronto against the Blue Jays, barring a change to the Yankees’ rotation.

“My execution was poor, so I never really gave myself a chance to learn anything,” Cole said. “To get a foul ball or to get a mishit, it ended up in damage. This league is really hard. I certainly had the stuff tonight to give us a chance, and I just pitched poorly.”

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Ohtani ‘growing as hitter’ sans pitching workload

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Ohtani 'growing as hitter' sans pitching workload

CHICAGO — Halfway through his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Shohei Ohtani looks quite comfortable with his new surroundings.

The Japanese slugger has been a sweet-swinging Hollywood blockbuster so far.

The Dodgers are on top of the NL West with a 50-31 record, and Ohtani has played a major role in their strong start. The two-time AL MVP is batting a career-high .320 with 24 homers, 60 RBIs and a 1.032 OPS in 78 games.

“It’s really about getting to know the guys,” Ohtani said Tuesday night through an interpreter. “You know I had my first impression, but really getting to know who the people are and the organization.

“As I stated before, I decided to sign with this team and wanted to do the best that I can to fit in. So I think overall, looking back, it’s been a really good first half.”

Ohtani, who turns 30 on July 5, agreed to a record-shattering $700 million, 10-year contract in December. The two-way sensation isn’t pitching this year while he recovers from elbow surgery, and it looks as if putting more of his focus on hitting is helping him at the plate.

“The reality is the workload has been a lot less,” Ohtani said. “So I can’t deny that. But at the same time, as a hitter, I’ve been getting better and overall I think I’ve been growing as a hitter, too.”

Ohtani hit a leadoff homer during Tuesday night’s 4-3 victory over the Chicago White Sox, extending his RBI streak to a career-high nine consecutive games — matching a franchise record. He walked and scored in the third inning, and then hit a tiebreaking RBI single in the fourth.

Ohtani moved into the leadoff spot after Mookie Betts was sidelined by a broken left hand. He is batting .419 (13-for-31) with five homers and 14 RBIs in eight games since Betts got hurt.

“I don’t know what more we can really say about him,” Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman said. “I think we’ve said everything we can since he entered this league, about what an amazing player he is. But when you come over here, you just never know how first year’s going to go on any team.

“Sometimes you just got to step back and just appreciate a player like this.”

Ohtani drove a hanging curveball from Chris Flexen into the visitor’s bullpen in right-center for his NL-best 24th homer. White Sox right fielder Tommy Pham tried to make a leaping grab on the play, but was unable to bring it in.

Ohtani got so caught up in tracking the ball that he carried his bat as he jogged up the line. After discarding his lumber, he went back to touch first base because he was concerned that he missed the bag the first time around.

“Just wasn’t quite sure that I stepped on the bag,” he said.

It was Ohtani’s second leadoff homer of the season and No. 8 for his career. He is the first player to drive in at least one run in nine consecutive games for the Dodgers since Hall of Fame catcher Roy Campanella in 1955.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Ohtani is being more selective at the plate, and it’s paying off.

“When you do that,” Roberts said, “you earn pitches in the strike zone, and when he does that, a lot of special things happen.”

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Mets’ Díaz won’t appeal ban; Marte lands on IL

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Mets' Díaz won't appeal ban; Marte lands on IL

NEW YORK — The New York Mets, streaking in June following a turbulent May, will be without two key contributors for considerable time after closer Edwin Díaz chose not to appeal his 10-game suspension for violating prohibitions on foreign substances and right fielder Starling Marte was placed on the injured list with a right knee bone bruise Tuesday.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Marte, whose IL stint is retroactive to Sunday, will not return to the team for at least a month. The club called up veteran outfielder Ben Gamel to take Marte’s place on the roster.

While the Mets could replace Marte, their bullpen will be a man down without Díaz for the next 10 games. Díaz was ejected before throwing a pitch Sunday in a win over the Chicago Cubs. He was issued the ban Monday and decided not to appeal the decision Tuesday, leaving the Mets relief corps shorthanded as they began a two-game Subway Series with the New York Yankees at Citi Field.

“We want to move on from it,” Mendoza said when asked why Díaz didn’t appeal the suspension. “We don’t want this cloud to be hanging over the team for too long. And we decided it was best.”

On Sunday, Díaz said he used the same legal concoction he’s always used to better grip the baseball: rosin, sweat and dirt. But crew chief Vic Carapazza said the sticky, discolored substance the umpires discovered “definitely wasn’t rosin and sweat.”

Major League Baseball has suspended eight pitchers for foreign substances since it started cracking down on them during the 2021 season. Three have been Mets: Max Scherzer and Drew Smith last year, and Díaz on Sunday.

Mendoza indicated the team planned on making changes to avoid another violation.

“You hate to see it,” Mendoza said. “And as far as doing anything different, from day one, we’ve been very specific and very direct. You hate to see it. I obviously don’t want to get into the details of what we’re going to be doing moving forward, but, obviously, the rules are the rules. Talking to Edwin, obviously, I got his back. I truly believe what he was telling us.”

The suspension was the next chapter in a miserable return to the mound for Díaz, who missed the 2023 season with a torn knee ligament. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 4.70 ERA in 24 appearances and has blown 4-of-11 save opportunities.

Mendoza said he will “mix and match” with the closer role, depending on availability and matchups. The bigger challenge will be navigating a stretch starting Friday of eight games in eight days with an undermanned pitching staff.

“I’m pretty sure we’re going to have to reshuffle some things here, but we just got to take it one game at a time,” Mendoza said. “See where you’re at bullpen-wise and then go from there. The good thing is we got depth. We got people with options and we’ll get through it.”

Marte, meanwhile, is slashing .278/.328/.416 with seven home runs in 66 games this season. Mendoza said Marte, 35, first started feeling knee discomfort during the team’s three-game series in Washington at the beginning of the month. As a result, Mendoza said, the club was careful with Marte’s usage, but “something didn’t look right” after his first at-bat Saturday against the Cubs, so he was pulled.

Mendoza named DJ Stewart, Tyrone Taylor, Jeff McNeil and Gamel as options to play right field in Marte’s absence. Stewart started in right field Sunday. Taylor got the start Tuesday.

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