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Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years


= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth
, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value


Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m



These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year
, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.

San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.

Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?

New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.

Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.

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Astros say Hader won’t throw for about 3 weeks

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Astros say Hader won't throw for about 3 weeks

HOUSTON — Astros All-Star closer Josh Hader will be shut down from throwing for approximately three weeks after the team announced Friday he has been diagnosed with left shoulder capsule strain.

Hader was placed on the injured list on Monday for the first time in his nine-year major league career because of a shoulder strain. Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that Hader would seek a second opinion before determining a next course of action.

A six-time All-Star, Hader, who is in his second year with the Astros, is 6-2 with a 2.05 ERA and is tied for third with 28 saves in 48 appearances this season.

The Astros entered play on Friday leading the American League West by 1½ games, despite having 13 players on the injured list.

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Brewers activate rookie Misiorowski from IL

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Brewers activate rookie Misiorowski from IL

CINCINNATI — Milwaukee Brewers rookie pitcher Jacob Misiorowski has been activated from the injured list after missing about 2½ weeks with a left tibia contusion.

The move potentially clears the way for the All-Star right-hander to pitch in the NL Central-leading Brewers’ series opener Friday at Cincinnati as they attempt to earn a 13th straight victory, which would match the longest winning streak in franchise history. The Brewers won their first 13 games in 1987.

Misiorowski last pitched July 28 in an 8-4 victory over the Chicago Cubs. Misiorowski’s knee appeared to buckle in the first inning that night as he fielded a dribbler and threw wildly to first base, though he remained in the game and ended up lasting four innings.

He owns a 4-1 record and 2.70 ERA in seven starts. Misiorowski has struck out 47 batters over 33⅓ innings.

In other moves Friday, the Brewers optioned right-handed pitcher Grant Anderson to Triple-A Nashville, placed outfielder Blake Perkins on the bereavement list, put outfielder Isaac Collins on the paternity list, and recalled infielder Tyler Black and outfielder Steward Berroa from Nashville.

Anderson, 28, was 2-3 with a 3.07 ERA in 53 relief appearances with Milwaukee.

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Amid woes, Cubs focus on process, not results

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Amid woes, Cubs focus on process, not results

CHICAGO — Mired in a collective offensive slump, the Chicago Cubs are preaching sticking with the process — and not worrying about the results — as a way out of it.

The team has lost three consecutive series for the first time all season, culminating in a 2-1 defeat to the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday when the Cubs failed to push across the tying run in the eighth inning despite having runners on second and third with no outs.

“There’s a tendency to make everything sound worse than it is in our game,” manager Craig Counsell said Friday before facing the Pittsburgh Pirates. “That’s the nature of it when it’s every day.

“Things not going right is not what’s happening. I think that’s what you fall into. This is baseball that’s happening. You have to be tough enough to roll with that.”

Chicago ranks 28th in runs scored since the All-Star break after being at the top of the league for most of the first three months of the season. There’s no single culprit, as most of the top and middle of the order has struggled.

Right fielder Kyle Tucker was asked how to break out of it.

“I don’t know,” he said. “You just figure it out. We play so many games, you just got to get through it at times.”

Tucker is hitting .195 since July 1 with just one home run and four extra-base hits. After jamming his right ring finger on a slide in early June, he finished the month strong but has gone backward since.

The finger is “fine,” Tucker said.

He isn’t the only one struggling. Designated hitter Seiya Suzuki has driven in just eight runs since the break — he had 77 RBIs in the first half — while hitting .182. First baseman Michael Busch is batting .171 since the break, while left fielder Ian Happ is at .228.

But no one has struggled more of late than center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had just three hits and 15 strikeouts in August before a second-inning double Friday.

“It becomes the self-inflicted pressure when you feel like you’re not playing your part in contributing,” Crow-Armstrong said before Friday’s game. “When stuff starts to kind of pile up like that, it sucks, but it’s also baseball and I still have however many fricking weeks left this season, and it’s still a lot of time to begin to produce again.”

Counsell added: “Sticking to the things that get you results and being OK it might not happen at that exact time you want it to is the right way to be your best self. I think we have to be consistent with that. For us to focus on results is harmful, so you focus on things that contribute to us being good.”

That’s the collective feeling of the group inside the clubhouse as the Cubs continue to maintain a spot in the wild-card race, even if the division seems as if it could be slipping away. Wins are still coming — just not at the clip they were during the first half. And the club still hasn’t been swept in a three- or four-game series — one of two teams in baseball that can make that claim.

There’s still time to find that offensive groove again as the Cubs look to cut into the Milwaukee Brewers‘ lead in the division while also staving off the Cincinnati Reds in the wild-card race.

“Brewers are hot,” Crow-Armstrong said. “The Reds are playing good baseball. It’s another division matchup [this weekend]. I mean, the Cubbies are the Cubbies. We’re going to go keep playing the same baseball we played all year. … It’s been an interesting two weeks, but we’re fine. I don’t think there’s any worry in the world.”

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