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The recent history of the Iowa Republican caucus offers the candidates chasing former President Donald Trump one big reason for optimism. But that history also presents them with an even larger reason for concern.

In each of the past three contested GOP nomination fights, Iowa Republicans have rejected the candidate considered the national front-runner in the race, as Trump is now. Instead, in each of those three past caucuses, Iowa Republicans delivered victory to an alternative who relied primarily on support from the states powerful bloc of evangelical Christian conservatives.

Read: The GOP primary is a field of broken dreams

But each of those three recent Iowa winners failed to capture the Republican presidential nomination or, in the end, even to come very close. All three of them were eventually defeated, handily, by the front-runner that they beat in Iowa. That pattern played out in 2008 when Mike Huckabee won Iowa but then lost the nomination to John McCain, in 2012 when Rick Santorum won Iowa but lost the nomination to Mitt Romney, and in 2016 when Ted Cruz won Iowa but lost the nomination to Trump. Not since George W. Bush in 2000, and before him Bob Dole in 1996, has the winner of the Iowa caucus gone on to become the GOP nominee.

That record frames the stakes for this round of the Iowa caucus, which will begin the GOP nominating process next January 15. Beating Trump in Iowa remains central to any hope of denying him the nomination. Among Trump skeptics, there is a widespread belief that Iowa is more crucial than ever, because if Trump wins here, he will be your nominee; hell run the table, as Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Family Leader, an Iowa-based social-conservative organization, told me in an interview last week.

But even if Trump is defeated in the caucus, this recent history suggests that he will still be a strong favorite for the nomination if Iowa Republicans do not choose an alternative stronger than Huckabee, Santorum, or Cruz proved to be. The conundrum for the candidates chasing Trump is that the strategy that probably offers the best chance of upsetting him in Iowamaximizing support among evangelical-Christian conservativesalso creates the greatest risk of limiting their appeal and making it harder to beat him in most later states.

Although focusing on evangelical conservatives can deliver victory in Iowa, if the campaign youre running is only aimed at those people its hard to put together a coalition big enough to win the nomination overall, says Dave Kochel, an Iowa Republican strategist.

As they watched the candidates shake hands at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines last week, local political observers and national reporters debated the usual questions: Who is collecting the most endorsements? Who has built the strongest grassroots organization? Who has the most supporters passionate enough to turn out on a cold night next January? But the largest question looming for Republicans may be whether the road to success in the Iowa caucus has become a path to ultimate failure in the GOP presidential-nominating process.

The common problem for Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz was that even on the night they won Iowa, the results demonstrated that the base of support they had attracted was too narrow to win the nomination. Entrance polls conducted of voters heading into the Iowa caucuses found that each man finished well ahead among voters who identified as evangelical Christians. But all three failed to win among voters in Iowa who did not identify as evangelicals.

That math worked in Iowa because evangelical Christians constitute such a large share of its GOP votersalmost two-thirds in some surveys. But each mans weakness with the Iowa voters who were not evangelicals prefigured crippling problems in other states. The difficulties started just days later in New Hampshire, which has few evangelicals. Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz were all routed in New Hampshire; none of them attracted as much as 12 percent of the total vote.

The divergent results in Iowa and New Hampshire set the mold for what followed. All three men were competitive in other states with sizable evangelical populations. But none could generate much traction in the larger group of states where those voters were a smaller share of the GOP electorate. In the end, neither Huckabee, Santorum, nor Cruz won more than a dozen states.

Kedron Bardwell, a political scientist at Simpson College, south of Des Moines, says this history makes clear that Iowa Republican voters, especially evangelicals, have never placed much priority on finding candidates that they think can go the distance to the nomination. I look at those past winners and think voters were saying, We are expressing our conservative Christian values and not so much worrying about what will happen after that, Bardwell told me.

Vander Plaats predicts that will change in this election; the eventual failure of these earlier Iowa winners favored by evangelicals, he told me, will make local activists more conscious of choosing a candidate who has the national infrastructure and capacity to go beyond Iowa. Yet financial and organizational resources arent the only, or perhaps even the most important, measures of which Republican is best-positioned to convert an Iowa win into a lasting national challenge to Trump.

Even if someone topples Trump in Iowa with strong support from evangelicals, the key measure of their long-term viability will be whether they can attract a significant share of non-evangelicals. In fact, according to past entrance polls, the candidate who won the most support among the Iowa voters who are not evangelicals has captured the GOP nomination in all but one contested race since 1996. (The lone exception came in 2008, when John McCain, the eventual winner, did not compete in Iowa, and those voters mostly backed Mitt Romney.)

Kochel told me that the best way to understand the formula that might allow another candidate to overtake Trump in enough states to win the nomination is to consider the candidates who finished just above and behind him in the 2016 Iowa caucus: Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

If you want to put it in 2016 terms, particularly with Trump looming so large, you really need the Cruz-plus-Rubio coalition, Kochel said. You need the Santorum/Huckabee/Cruz supporters, Christians as defined by people like Vander Plaats. But then you also need the Rubio coalition: Ankeny soccer moms and old-school Republicans, college-educated non-evangelicals. Thats the coalition that can win a nomination.

Can any of Trumps rivals assemble such a coalition to threaten him, in Iowa and beyond? His following in the state remains passionate, as his exultant reception at the state fair last weekend demonstrated. And though hes campaigned in the state considerably less than his leading rivals, Trump held a big lead in the recent New York Times/Siena College poll of Iowa Republican voters. That survey showed Trump leading among evangelicals and non-evangelicals, largely on the strength of a dominant advantage among the likely caucus-goers in both groups without a college degree.

But there may be a bigger group of Iowa Republicans willing to consider an alternative to Trump than polls now indicate. Its not scientific, but my conversations with likely caucus-attenders at the fair last week found a surprising number expressing exhaustion with him.

Although they liked Trumps performance as president, and mostly felt that he was being unfairly prosecuted, several told me they believed that he had alienated too many voters to win another general election, and they were ready for a different choice that might have a better chance of beating President Joe Biden. He did the best he could for four years, but he didnt win again, and were done with it, were done, Mary Kinney, a retired office manager in Des Moines, told me. Later that afternoon, at a Story County Republican Party dinner headlined by Senator Tim Scott, Steve Goodhue, an insurance broker in Ames, looked around the crowded room and told me,Even though Trump is leading in the polls in Iowa, this shows you people are interested in alternatives.

Trying to reach those voters ready to move past Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is putting the most time and money into building a traditional Iowa organization. His campaign staff and the Never Back Down Super PAC that is organizing most of his ground game in the state both include key veterans of Cruzs 2016 winning caucus effort. DeSantis has committed to visiting all 99 Iowa counties (whats called a full Grassley in honor of the states Republican Senator Charles Grassley, who makes a similar tour every year), and his supporters have already recruited caucus chairs in every county as well.

DeSantis has announced endorsements from more than three dozen state legislators, including State Senate President Amy Sinclair. Thats much more than any other candidate. Look at what the state of Florida has been doing, and look at what the state of Iowa through our legislature has been doing, Sinclair told me, citing parental rights, school choice, cuts in government spending, and a six-week ban on abortion. Weve been working on all of the same things, so when Governor DeSantis steps into the presidential race and says, I have a vision for the nation, and that vision is what weve done in Florida, well, thats the same vision that the folks in Iowa have had.

Many leading Iowa social conservatives also appear likely to coalesce around DeSantis. Steve Deace, an Iowa conservative-media commentator, endorsed him earlier this month, and in our conversation, Vander Plaats seemed headed that way too. Each had backed Cruz in 2016.

All of this shows how many Iowa Republican power brokers consider DeSantis the most likely to become the principal alternative to Trump. DeSantis also polled second to Trump in that New York Times/Siena College Iowa survey. But my conversations at the fair failed to find anyone particularly interested in him. Several of those looking for options beyond Trump said they found DeSantis too much like the former president in his combative temperament and style.

Craig Robinson, the former state Republican political director, says he believes that DeSantis, by running so hard to the right on social issues, has already boxed himself into the same corner as Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz, with little chance to reach out beyond evangelicals to the economically focused suburban Republicans who liked Rubio and Romney. When DeSantis entered the race, Robinson says, he could have appealed to the Republicans who are sick of the bullshit and dont want all the extras that come with Trump. Then hes run a campaign about Disney and all this woke stuff, and all hes done is make himself as controversial as Trump.

Helen Lewis: The humiliation of Ron DeSantis

DeSantiss positioning has created an opening among the Iowa Republicans uneasy about Trump that Tim Scott looks best positioned to fill. The senator may be developing a more effective formula than DeSantis for appealing to both evangelical social conservatives and more socially moderate, suburban economic conservatives. Unlike DeSantis or former Vice President Mike Pence, Scott doesnt hammer away at social issues in a way likely to alienate suburban Republicans. Instead, he connects with evangelical Republicans through his testimony about the importance of religious faith in his own life, and the way in which he organically and authentically weaves Bible phrases into his conversation. As several Iowa Republicans told me, Scott speaks evangelical in a way DeSantis does not.

Still, Scotts campaign message so far is bland, focused primarily on his personal story of ascending from poverty. The senators unwavering refusal to challenge or criticize Trump has left the impression among some activists that he is really running for vice president. So long as Scott fuels that perception by refusing to contrast himself with Trump, Vander Plaats predicted, his poll numbers will not move, and his caucus support will not be there.

The caucus is now less than five months away, but in earlier years, this final stretch often produced rapid shifts in fortune. Bardwell, the political scientist, notes that five different candidates led polls at some point leading up to the 2012 caucus before Santorum finally edged past Romney at the wire. Iowa social conservatives have frequently coalesced behind their favorite late in the race. The choice those evangelical Christian voters make this winter will likely determine whether Iowa sets Trump on an unstoppable course to another nomination or anoints an alternative who might seriously challenge him.

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Deadline week update! Rankings for the top 50 MLB trade deadline candidates

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Deadline week update! Rankings for the top 50 MLB trade deadline candidates

The July 31 MLB trade deadline is just days away, so it’s time for a deadline week update to our top 50 trade candidates ranking.

Major League Baseball’s trade market is ever evolving, and to keep you updated, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have put together a list of potential trade candidates based on players’ performance — and that of the teams that could be involved in potential deals.

This is the most up-to-date accounting of where MLB’s trade market stands. While some of the players on the list are unlikely to be dealt, they’re at least being discussed in potential deals. Others might be making the list for the first time this week as their team’s fortunes have changed.

Note: Players ranked by value for their new team if traded, not likelihood of being dealt.


Chance of trade: 90%

Suarez is in a contract year and playing like one of the best players in baseball. Only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge have more home runs than his 33. Despite turning 34 years old before the trade deadline, Suarez is sitting near career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). His fielding metrics have declined in recent years, but he’s still an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t offload all their free agents to be, Suarez could move because they’ve got Jordan Lawlar raking in Triple-A and primed to take over at third.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies


Chance of trade: 10%

Ryan is one of the best pitchers in baseball, with a mix of stuff and pitchability, and teams in search of long-term fits dream of the possibility the Twins will actually move him. That is unlikely, but this is deadline season, so there is always the chance a team surveys the market, finds nothing to its liking and overpays. The Twins don’t necessarily want to move Ryan; they are more in listening mode on nearly everyone that occupies a roster spot — and with Ryan not a free agent until after the 2027 season, teams are trying, with little success thus far, to pry him away.

Best fits: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, New York Mets


Chance of trade: 10%

While the general sense is that Gore won’t go anywhere, the Nationals are, at the very least, listening — and that warrants a spot atop the list regardless of the minimal likelihood interim general manager Mike DeBartolo deals him. The prospect of Gore moving is tempting enough to want to engage: 144 strikeouts in 117⅔ innings with enough control that he’s walking a career-low 3.4 per nine innings. Even if stuff-plus models aren’t crazy for Gore, he gets elite swing-and-miss and is the sort of pitcher that could tempt teams to overpay.

Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, Baltimore, Houston, New York Mets


Chance of trade: 25%

Another late entry to the proceedings, Cease is throwing as hard as he did in his prime and is here more as a function of the Padres not having payroll flexibility or a deep minor league system than some sort of desire to deal him. As an impending free agent, he wouldn’t bring back nearly the haul of Ryan or Gore. And there are genuine questions about whether the holes the Padres would try to fill by moving Cease would only be exacerbated on the starting-pitching side were he to go. Regardless, they’re at the very least listening, and with Cincinnati and San Francisco breathing down their necks for the final NL wild-card slot, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could try to get creative in upgrading his roster.

Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets


Chance of trade: 10%

An All-Star the last two years and Gold Glove winner in all three of his previous big league seasons, Kwan is a do-everything left fielder with elite bat-to-ball skills and two years of club control after 2025. Cleveland doesn’t want to deal him, but with a dearth of available bats, the Guardians at very least will listen to see if teams are willing to blow them away with offers.

Best fits: Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers


Chance of trade: 25%

Duran had a huge breakout season in 2024, posting the seventh-best fWAR in the majors at 6.8. He overperformed his underlying metrics, though — i.e. had some lucky outcomes — and those metrics have regressed a bit this year as has his luck. Duran’s projected to finish the season with around 3.0 WAR, which is more in line with how the league sees him. With Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox have the outfield depth to consider moving Duran for controllable, top-end pitching.

Best fits: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia


7. Jhoan Duran, RP, Minnesota Twins

Chance of trade: 30%

Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his nasty stuff, headlined by a fastball that averages 100.4 mph and a splinker that sits 97.6 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so he’d demand a big trade package.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas


Chance of trade: 20%

Clase was nearly unhittable last season, but his numbers have regressed this year. He has issued more walks and gotten fewer ground balls while allowing more damage on his cutter that averages 99 mph — in part due to more center-cut locations. Under contract for less than $30 million through 2028, he would bring a big return to Cleveland.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas


9. Cade Smith, RP, Cleveland Guardians

Chance of trade: 20%

Smith has been the best reliever in baseball by WAR since the beginning of the 2024 season, and with more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings this year, he is the solution to many teams’ late-inning woes. With four more years of control, he’s also going to be prohibitively expensive for most teams, making a deal difficult to come by.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas


10. Griffin Jax, RP, Minnesota Twins

Chance of trade: 30%

Despite a 3.92 ERA that says otherwise, Jax has been one of the top relievers in baseball this season — the best by xFIP and toward the top in other similar metrics. Over the last two seasons, he’s second in the sport behind Cade Smith in reliever WAR. Only Fernando Cruz and Mason Miller have a better strikeout rate than Jax’s 14.37 per nine, and his sweeper-heavy arsenal induces as much swing-and-miss as anyone.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas


11. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Chance of trade: 70%

Kelly doesn’t have big raw stuff, posting the second-lowest average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) among pitchers with 125 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and offspeed stuff. He was a stalwart in the Diamondbacks’ run to the 2023 World Series, striking out 28 in 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA.

Best fits: Toronto, Boston, Houston, Chicago Cubs


Chance of trade: 65%

Not only is Keller in the midst of a career-best season with a 3.53 ERA, he’s under contract for another three years at a very reasonable $55.7 million. The Pirates need bats, and moving Keller is the likeliest way to fill that void. Teams could be scared off slightly by the quality of contact against him — his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have spiked while his strikeouts are down — but in an environment with little pitching, Keller is nevertheless desirable.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, Toronto, Houston


Chance of trade: 30%

All the potential the Marlins have seen in the 27-year-old right-hander is finally coming into focus this season. While Cabrera’s 97 mph fastball gets hitters’ attention, it’s his curveball and slider that are doing most of the work. And with a changeup that in years past has been his best pitch, the cost to acquire Cabrera will be high because of his full arsenal and three more years of club control.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees


Chance of trade: 50%

Alcantara was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2022, winning the NL Cy Young unanimously. He was more solid than spectacular in 2023 and missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He has been tinkering this season to try to get his pitch mix and locations right in hopes of regaining his former glory. His 6.66 ERA is frightening, and with the Marlins still valuing him as a top starter, they could hold onto him until the winter, when teams like the Orioles would be more inclined to acquire him and the final two years of his contract.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Boston, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore


15. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Chance of trade: 70%

Gallen was excellent for the last three seasons but now, in a contract year, is posting career-worst numbers in almost every category. His stuff looks pretty similar, but he’s allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. That said, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is back to normal in his last six starts, at 35-to-6, despite a 6.55 ERA in that span.

Best fits: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs


16. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Chance of trade: 85%

O’Hearn is having an out-of-nowhere career year, with an OPS+ of 132 (and he’s been unlucky with ball-in-play luck, to boot) along with being on pace for a career high in homers. He doesn’t face lefty pitchers much at all and his splits suggest that he shouldn’t.

Best fits: Houston, Boston, San Francisco, Texas


17. David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Chance of trade: 70%

In a market replete with relief options, the 30-year-old Bednar brings high-end performance without quite the price tag of his peers. His swing-and-miss stuff has been elite since his return from Triple-A, and he has more than salvaged his trade value: Over his last 23 outings, Bednar has struck out 29, walked five and posted a 0.00 ERA.

Best fits: Detroit, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Seattle


Chance of trade: 80%

Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year, but he has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are pretty similar, but the main difference is his fastball is getting hit hard — with one byproduct being his spiking home run rate.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, New York Mets, Seattle


Chance of trade: 20%

Fairbanks raised his slot a bit this year, and now his 97.3-mph fastball has more cutting action while his slurvy slider has more depth with both pitches playing a notch better than they did last season. He’s got a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should wind up around the $10 million range. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes and bullpen injuries have cut into the likelihood Fairbanks moves.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto, Texas


20. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians

Chance of trade: 50%

A late entrant into the trade market, Bieber still hasn’t thrown a big league pitch this season and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. With his fastball up to 94 mph and his slider looking like its old sharp self, though, he’s generating plenty of interest and could be one of the bigger names moved at the deadline.

Best fits: San Diego, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, Toronto


Chance of trade: 60%

Ward comes with an additional year of team control after this season and he’s having a strong 2025 campaign, just one homer away from last year’s career high total of 25 — and in 52 fewer games.

Best fits: Cincinnati, San Diego, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco


Chance of trade: 50%

Robert has been extremely unlucky with ball-in-play results this season, but that has begun to turn around recently. He remains a strong defender and baserunner, with a career-high 24 steals already. But the slashline is unsightly, and his trade value has cratered over the last two seasons. He’s got a pair of $20 million-a-year club options that the acquiring team will be hesitant to exercise absent a turnaround. Finding a match with a team willing to pay more for Robert’s upside than his productivity could be challenging.

Best fits: San Diego, Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, San Francisco


23. Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals

Chance of trade: 20%

Arenado’s strikeout rate is around his career best and he’s still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He’s still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.

Best fits: Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle


Chance of trade: 70%

Ozuna is a stone-cold DH, playing two games in the field in 2023 as his last regular-season experience defensively. He’s also in a contract year, but his power numbers are down a notch from his standout .302 average and 39-homer performance last season. His on-base percentage remains among the highest of potential trade candidates. If anyone is moving from Atlanta, he’s the likeliest candidate, with free agency beckoning.

Best fits: San Diego, Seattle, Texas, Detroit, San Francisco


Chance of trade: 50%

Garcia averaged 30 homers in 2021-24, but he’s fallen off since his 2023 career year. It’s worth noting that per xwOBA, he’s been the 13th-most unlucky hitter in the big leagues this year. He also has another year of team control, so some teams could see a buy-low opportunity.

Best fits: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco


26. Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels

Chance of trade: 15%

The No. 10 pick from the 2020 draft transitioned to relief this season and has found similar success to other highly-drafted college lefties, including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller and Drew Pomeranz. He comes with three more years of control after this season and his velo is up 1.7 mph in the new role, so this might be where he fits long term — and he could fetch a hefty return. Some teams still see Detmers as a starter.

Best fits: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Toronto


Chance of trade: 90%

Following a dreadful start to the season, Morton found his curveball and has righted himself. Between his stuff and playoff experience, he has leapt up teams’ boards as a true target and almost certainly will move before the deadline.

Best fits: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto


28. Adrian Houser, SP, Chicago White Sox

Chance of trade: 90%

Houser’s resurgence is a success story for the White Sox. He opted out of a minor league deal with Texas to sign with the White Sox in mid-May and has limited home runs to post a 2.10 ERA in nearly 70 innings. He’ll eat innings for sure, but some scouts see his stuff as good enough to warrant a spot in a postseason rotation.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto


Chance of trade: 80%

Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in a contract year who contributes in a number of ways, though he’s hitting only .217 and his defensive metrics have regressed to be below average in center. His walk rate and power numbers are up this season, making him a solid contributor on a contender.

Best fits: Philadelphia, Houston, New York Mets


30. Willi Castro, UT, Minnesota Twins

Castro has played six of the eight field positions this year and has been a solid, versatile utility type since a breakout season in 2023. He doesn’t offer eye-popping numbers or tools, but is around average at most things while playing all over the field on an everyday basis.

Nos. 31-57

31. Seth Halvorsen, RP, Colorado Rockies
32. Zack Littell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
33. Jeffrey Springs, SP, Athletics
34. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Miami Marlins
35. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
36. Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
37. JP Sears, SP, Athletics
38. Michael Soroka, SP, Washington Nationals
39. Tyler Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
40. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
41. Luis Severino, SP, Athletics
42. Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles
43. Pierce Johnson, RP, Atlanta Braves
44. Phil Maton, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
45. Steven Matz, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
46. Harrison Bader, CF, Minnesota Twins
47. Jake Bird, RP, Colorado Rockies
48. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
49. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
50. Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
51. Chris Paddack, SP, Minnesota Twins
52. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Atlanta Braves
53. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
54. Ramon Urias, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
55. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT, Pittsburgh Pirates
56. Luis Urias, 2B, Athletics
57. Shelby Miller, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Israel-Hamas war: ‘Vast amounts of aid needed to stave off catastrophic health crisis in Gaza,’ UN warns

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Israel-Hamas war: 'Vast amounts of aid needed to stave off catastrophic health crisis in Gaza,' UN warns

Israel has agreed to support a “one-week scale-up of aid” in Gaza – but the United Nations has warned more action is needed to “stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis”.

UN aid chief Tom Fletcher made the remarks as Israel began limited pauses in fighting across three areas of Gaza for 10 hours a day to address the worsening humanitarian situation.

Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza’s population from the start of March. It then reopened aid centres with new restrictions in May, but said the supply had to be controlled to prevent it from being stolen by Hamas militants.

A Palestinian man in Beit Lahia carries aid that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A Palestinian man in Beit Lahia carries aid that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters

On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamas had stolen aid from UN agencies.

Images of emaciated Palestinian children have led to widespread criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, including by allies who are calling for an end to the war.

Mr Fletcher said one in three people in Gaza “hasn’t eaten for days” and “children are wasting away”.

He added: “We welcome Israel’s decision to support a one-week scale-up of aid, including lifting customs barriers on food, medicine and fuel from Egypt and the reported designation of secure routes for UN humanitarian convoys.

More on Israel-hamas War

“Some movement restrictions appear to have been eased today, with initial reports indicating that over 100 truckloads were collected.

“This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis. Across the UN agencies and humanitarian community, we are mobilised to save as many lives as we can.”

An aircraft drops humanitarian aid over Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
Image:
An aircraft drops humanitarian aid over Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters

The Israel Defence Forces said yesterday that it is halting military operations in Muwasi, Deir al Balah and Gaza City daily from 10am to 8pm local time (8am to 6pm UK time) until further notice.

Combat operations have continued outside of this 10-hour window. Health officials in Gaza said Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians overnight into Sunday morning, including 26 seeking aid.

In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.

A map showing the three areas of Gaza where military action has been paused
Image:
A map showing the three areas of Gaza where military action has been paused

Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.

While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in the territory, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.

Palestinian sources confirmed that aid had begun dropping in northern parts of the territory.

Palestinians carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel, in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, July 27, 2025. REUTERS/Dawoud Ab
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Palestinians in Beit Lahia carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters

Sabreen Hasson, a Palestinian mother who travelled to an aid point near the Zikim crossing to collect supplies, said: “I came to get flour for my children because they have not tasted flour for more than a week, and thank God, God provided me with a kilo of rice with difficulty.”

But Samira Yahda, who was in Zawaida in central Gaza, said: “We saw the planes, but we didn’t see what they dropped… they said trucks would pass, but we didn’t see the trucks.”

Another Palestinian told the AP news agency that some people feared going out and having a box of aid fall on their children.

Read more:
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Parents of IDF soldier taken hostage fear he’ll be one of last freed
25% of young children ‘now malnourished in Gaza’

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Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza

Gaza is expected to be a focus during talks Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump in Scotland today.

Downing Street said Sir Keir will raise “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the US president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.

Reports also suggest the prime minister is planning to interrupt the summer recess and recall his cabinet to discuss the crisis on Tuesday.

Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.

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Bob Geldof: ‘Israeli authorities are lying’

Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.

Meanwhile the exiled head of Hamas in Gaza, Khalil al Hayya, has warned ceasefire negotiations with Israel were “meaningless under continued blockade and starvation”.

In a recorded speech, he added: “The immediate and dignified delivery of food and medicine to our people is the only serious and genuine indication of whether continuing the negotiations is worthwhile.”

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Israel intercepts Gaza aid boat

During a meeting with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday, Mr Trump emphasised the importance of securing the release of hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza.

He said: “They don’t want to give them back, and so Israel is going to have to make a decision.

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Starmer says UK will help drop aid to Gaza

“I know what I’d do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate that I say it. But Israel is going to have to make a decision,” he said.

Mr Trump also repeated claims, without evidence, that Hamas was stealing food coming into Gaza and selling it.

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Technology

Samsung Electronics signs $16.5 billion chip-supply contract in boost to foundry business; shares rise

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Samsung Electronics signs .5 billion chip-supply contract in boost to foundry business; shares rise

A Samsung flag flies outside the company office in Seoul, South Korea on February 05, 2024.

Chung Sung-jun | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Samsung Electronics has entered into a $16.5 billion contract for supplying semiconductors to a major company, a regulatory filing by the South Korean company showed Monday.  

The memory chipmaker, which did not name the counterparty, mentioned in its filing that the effective start date of the contract was July 26, 2024 — receipt of orders — and its end date was Dec. 31, 2033.

Samsung declined to comment on details regarding the counterparty.

The company said that details of the deal, including the name of the counterparty, will not be disclosed until the end of 2033, citing a request from the second party “to protect trade secrets,” according to a Google translation of the filing in Korean.

“Since the main contents of the contract have been not been disclosed due to the need to maintain business confidentiality, investors are advised to invest carefully considering the possibility of changes or termination of the contract,” the company said. Its shares were up nearly 3% in early trading.

Local South Korean media outlets have said that American chip firm Qualcomm could potentially place an order for Samsung’s 2 nanometer chips.

While Qualcomm is a possibility, given its potential 2 nanometer project with Samsung, Tesla seems the more probable customer, Ray Wang, research director of semiconductors, supply chain and emerging technology at The Futurum Group, told CNBC

Samsung’s foundry service manufactures chips based on designs provided by other companies. It is the second largest provider of foundry services globally, behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

The company said in April that it was aiming for its foundry business to start mass production of its next-generation 2 nanometer and secure major orders for the advanced product. In semiconductor technology, smaller nanometer sizes signify more compact transistor designs, which lead to greater processing power and efficiency.

Samsung, which is set to deliver earnings on Thursday, expects its second-quarter profit to more than halve. An analyst previously told CNBC that the disappointing forecast was due to weak orders for its foundry business and as the company has struggled to capture AI demand for its memory business.

The company has fallen behind competitors SK Hynix and Micron in high-bandwidth memory chips — an advanced type of memory used in AI chipsets.

SK Hynix, the leader in HBM, has become the main supplier of these chips to American AI behemoth Nvidia. While Samsung has reportedly been working to get the latest version of its HBM chips certified by Nvidia, a report from a local outlet suggests these plans have been pushed back to at least September.

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