MLB Power Rankings: A red-hot AL team makes top-5 debut
Tomorrow marks the first day of September — meaning the race for October is only going to get more intense from here.
While a few teams are staring down the postseason as they sit atop their division with a comfortable lead, a number of squads have a lot left to play for in the final month of the regular season.
That includes three divisional rivals in the American League, who are not only neck-in-neck fighting for positioning in the playoffs but also in our standings, as one makes its debut in the top five for the first time this season. Who will come out on top?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 21 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 87-45
Previous ranking: 1
The best regular-season team in Braves history was the 1998 squad that finished 106-56 with a plus-245 run differential. The 2023 Braves will need to finish strong to get there, but they show no signs of slowing down. Entering Wednesday’s game, they were on pace for 106 wins and a plus-286 run differential. Six regulars are hitting around .300 in August as is part-timer Nicky Lopez. The four-game series at Dodger Stadium will be an interesting playoff preview, and they have seven games left against the Phillies, but the Braves certainly have a shot at 107 wins, even if they start resting some of the regulars a bit in September. — Schoenfield
Record: 83-49
Previous ranking: 2
The Dodgers are surging through August, winning 24 of their 28 games to increase their National League West lead to a whopping 14½ games. And their two MVP candidates, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, have predictably shouldered a lot of the weight, combining to hit over .400 and slugging around .700 this month. Betts in particular boasts a major league-best 1.309 OPS in August and is making a late surge to chase down the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and capture his second MVP Award. Betts is slashing .316/.410/.611 with 36 home runs and 10 stolen bases for the year. With one day left in August, his 7.5 FanGraphs wins above replacement easily top the NL, with Freeman (6.8) and Acuna (6.5) lagging slightly behind. All three will share the same field beginning today, with the Dodgers and Braves set for a four-game series from Dodger Stadium. — Gonzalez
Record: 83-50
Previous ranking: 3
For anyone waiting for the Orioles to regress on the basis of their run differential, it ain’t happening. Rather than Baltimore’s record moving towards its differential, it’s the opposite. On July 24, the Orioles had a 162-game win pace of an even 100, though their run differential suggested they were actually more like an 89-win team. The prevailing analytic wisdom is that run differential is more predictive of a team’s future record than actual record. Well, tell that to the O’s. After Baltimore clubbed the White Sox on Tuesday, their 162-game win pace was up to 102, while the differential was that of a 93-win club. There’s still a disparity, of course, but the bottom line is that the Orioles have an awful lot of wins in the bank, and they just keep getting better. — Doolittle
Record: 82-52
Previous ranking: 5
As the Rays’ offense keeps rolling, the performance of Isaac Paredes continues to stand out even among a lineup full of hot hitters. Paredes is one of the more unsung players in the game. Perhaps it’s because he plays in Tampa/St. Petersburg, or perhaps it’s because he’s a third baseman in an era unusually prolific in star third basemen. But it’s time for Paredes to get some due.
After homering and driving in four against Miami on Tuesday, Paredes was on pace to top both the 30-homer and 100-RBI thresholds this season. Only four Rays have ever done that: Carlos Pena (2007, 2008, 2009), Evan Longoria (2009), Aubrey Huff (2003) and brand new Hall of Famer Fred McGriff (1999). Paredes ranks sixth among primary third baseman by bWAR, ahead of luminaries such as Rafael Devers, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado. — Doolittle
Record: 76-57
Previous ranking: 7
With their victory on Sunday and a Rangers loss, the Mariners temporarily moved into sole possession of first place, the latest they’ve been in first place since 2001. Julio Rodriguez followed up with a four-hit game on Monday, making him the first player since 1900 with five four-hit games in a 10-game stretch. He hit .596 over those 10 games with five home runs and 16 RBIs. He missed Tuesday’s game with a pinched nerve in his foot, however, and the Mariners have him listed as day-to-day. They’ll need his red-hot bat in the lineup as the schedule now gets more difficult, starting with a 10-game road trip against the Mets, Reds and Rays. — Schoenfield
Record: 77-58
Previous ranking: 6
Michael Brantley is back. The Astros activated Brantley from the injured list on Tuesday and he made his season debut that night at Fenway Park, going 0-for-4. It was his first MLB action since June 26, 2022, and his return positions him to play a part in Houston’s title defense after he missed last year’s championship run. Brantley hit just one homer in 16 rehab games for Triple-A Sugar Land, but other than that, he hit very much like Michael Brantley. He posted a .298/.453/.447 slash line for the Space Cowboys, with 15 walks and one — one! — strikeout. The Astros, who are last in the majors in plate appearances by lefty hitters, can use a guy like that. Anyone could. — Doolittle
Record: 75-58
Previous ranking: 4
The Rangers lost eight in a row and then lost hold of first place in the American League West as the hard-charging Mariners overtook them. A series win over the Mets helped right the ship, though, as their pitching stabilized after a rough ride. Andrew Heaney threw a needed 5⅓ shutout innings on Tuesday, striking out seven while giving up five hits and a walk. The night before, it was Jon Gray tossing a quality start. In the last 10 days, Rangers’ starters posted a 5.22 ERA. Most of the season, that part of their team has been great. Their one blip cost them first place. — Rogers
Record: 74-59
Previous ranking: 9
A series win over the Giants, a sweep of the Cardinals and a series win over the Angels have allowed the Phillies to open up a little breathing room in the wild-card race. Aaron Nola had back-to-back seven-inning starts — allowing no runs and two runs, respectively — and Bryce Harper has found his home run groove, with eight in a 13-game stretch, including his 300th career home run on Wednesday, in which he hit .458/.574/1.063 with 17 RBIs and struck out just five times.. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber hit seven home runs in an 11-game stretch, hitting .275 with more walks than strikeouts and a 1.317 OPS. A locked-in Harper and Schwarber? Watch out. — Schoenfield
Record: 74-59
Previous ranking: 10
A nine-game win streak came to an end on Tuesday in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs, but Milwaukee firmly established itself as a possible playoff force during the run. It started after the team arrived in Texas for a series at 4 a.m. local time. The Brewers swept the Rangers that weekend before doing the same to the first-place Twins a couple days later, and then Milwaukee buried the Padres with a home sweep. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are doing their thing, but Freddy Peralta has also been excellent. He averaged over nine strikeouts in five August starts, all wins by the Brewers. The NL Central is theirs to lose in September. — Rogers
Record: 73-61
Previous ranking: 8
Even as the Blue Jays slip increasingly behind in the playoff race, Davis Schneider has established himself as a spectacled, mustachioed folk hero. Over his first 14 big league games, the Blue Jays’ 28th-round selection in 2017 went 19-for-45 with nine walks, six homers, 14 RBIs and a .426/.526/.894 slash line. Can he keep it up? Well, either Schneider is due for a major regression, or he’s the best hitter who ever lived. We’ll leave it up to what you want to believe. — Doolittle
Record: 71-62
Previous ranking: 12
Justin Steele continues to make his Cy Young case as he tossed another six shutout innings against the Brewers in a tight 1-0 win on Tuesday. His 2.69 ERA is second only to Blake Snell in the NL. The outing helped stabilize a Cubs rotation that’s now relying on two pitchers — lefty Jordan Wicks and righty Javier Assad — who have limited experience in the big leagues. Wicks made his MLB debut on Saturday against the Pirates, striking out nine while featuring a change-up — a rarity for left-handed pitchers. The Cubs could use more production out of righty Jameson Taillon down the stretch. He’s given up at least four runs in his last four starts, tying a career high set earlier this season. — Rogers
Record: 69-65
Previous ranking: 13
When the week began, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly had combined for a 3.32 ERA in 52 starts, making up one of the best one-two punches in the sport — not to mention one of the biggest reasons why the D-backs remained in contention. In back-to-back starts against the Dodgers on Monday and Tuesday, however, Gallen and Kelly combined to allow 13 runs on 21 hits and six walks in 10⅓ innings, taking the loss in both outings. The D-backs have taken some major steps forward this year, but the gap between them and the Dodgers is still really wide, especially in recent weeks. There’s no better evidence of that than watching their two best pitchers by far struggle mightily against them. — Gonzalez
Record: 69-65
Previous ranking: 14
The development of Royce Lewis was slowed by injuries, but through it all, his talent has shined through and continues to do so at the big league level. Lewis was the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, but a pair of ACL tears kept him on the Baseball America top 100 prospects list six straight years. His rise to the majors required a lot of patience and perseverance, but he is in Minnesota now, and he’s doing what you hope a first overall pick will do.
Lewis mashed grand slams in back-to-back games this week, becoming the first player in the history of the Senators/Twins to do so. He followed that up with a solo homer in the subsequent game. The sample size on his big league numbers remains small, but if you want to dream on him a little, consider this: Over his first 51 MLB games, he slashed .312/.354/.538 with 162-game paces of 35 homers and 108 RBIs, all while posting positive defensive metrics at third base. The wait certainly appears to have been worth it. — Doolittle
Record: 69-64
Previous ranking: 15
Alex Cobb came within one out of throwing a no-hitter against the electric Reds on Tuesday, ultimately giving up an RBI double to Spencer Steer before finishing with a 131-pitch complete game. Only three men reached base. It might not have been a historic start, but it was further indication of how crucial Cobb, 35, has been for this year’s Giants. His ERA is down to 3.57 in 141⅓ innings. He and Logan Webb have basically been the only mainstays in the rotation. But Kyle Harrison, their 22-year-old rookie, has allowed just two runs in 9⅔ innings in his first two starts, striking out 16 batters. He could change the dynamic down the stretch as the Giants look to secure a wild-card spot in a hyper-competitive field. — Gonzalez
Record: 69-65
Previous ranking: 11
After a three-game road series against the lowly Royals, the Red Sox will begin a brutal make-or-break part of their schedule on Sept. 4. Boston will play at Tampa Bay, at home against the Orioles and Yankees, and then on the road at Toronto and Texas. The contests against the offensively-potent Rays, Orioles and Rangers are of particular concern for the Red Sox’s ice cold run prevention, which has not warmed up over the last week. Since Aug. 16, the Red Sox rank as a bottom-five team in the majors in team ERA. On top of all that, Boston will finish the season without Jarren Duran, whose turf toe injury required surgery. It was a breakout season at the plate for Duran, who entered the 2023 campaign with a career OPS+ of 69 but leaped to a 120 mark this season. — Doolittle
Record: 69-66
Previous ranking: 16
A late-season West Coast trip hasn’t been kind to the Reds as they struggled on offense to begin the week. They were nearly no-hit by Cobb and the Giants on Tuesday, managing just one run in the ninth inning — their third straight game scoring two or less runs. Nick Martini has been a nice find for Cincinnati, though. He went 6-for-16 over a seven-day span ending on Tuesday that included two home runs and six RBIs. Martini has raked since coming up from Triple-A recently and has been a much-needed addition for an up-and-down offense. The Reds have fallen behind in the wild-card race, but once they get into September, their schedule lightens up. They’re down but not out. — Rogers
Record: 66-67
Previous ranking: 17
It’s beginning to slip away from the Marlins. They’re still in the wild-card chase, but now have three teams to jump over. And they just haven’t played good baseball since June, going 9-15 in July and 9-17 in August. In their latest 2-8 stretch, they scored just 17 runs while hitting .207/.254/.319. It didn’t help that they actually had leads in two of those games, but closer David Robertson lost them late. Robertson looked like a good trade deadline move, but he’s blown three of his six save chances, losing all three of those games and his role as closer. — Schoenfield
Record: 62-72
Previous ranking: 18
Is it time to give up any hope on these Padres? They’re surely making it tempting. The Padres were swept in a weekend series against the Brewers, and two days later they lost to the hapless Cardinals in extra innings. It moved the Padres to 0-11 in extra innings in 2023 — one loss away from tying the 1969 Montreal Expos, an expansion team that lost 110 games, for the worst record in extra-inning games in a single season. Worse: The Padres placed Yu Darvish on the IL with elbow inflammation on Sunday. Darvish wants to return before the end of the season, as does Joe Musgrove, who’s recovering from shoulder inflammation. But if the Padres can’t get into contention by mid-September, it won’t be worth the risk. — Gonzalez
Record: 65-68
Previous ranking: 21
The Yankees sent a clear message on Tuesday that they’re turning the page and looking to next season with their decisions to place center fielder Harrison Bader on waivers and release third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Bader could stick around if he goes unclaimed, but the focus in New York remains on going-forward evaluation. With Donaldson on the IL most of the year, the Yankees have leaned on veterans like D.J. LeMahieu and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at the hot corner. In recent games, however, Oswald Peraza had gotten the lion’s share of the time at the position, so we can expect that to continue with Donaldson now an ex-Yankee. It was less clear what the Bombers had in mind for center field, until they called up Jasson Dominguez — whose status as “phenom” has been up and down — on Thursday, with the intention of activating him prior to the team’s series against the Astros starting Friday. Dominguez, 20, played just eight games at Triple-A before being called up, going 12-for-27 with five walks and just two strikeouts. — Doolittle
Record: 64-70
Previous ranking: 20
The Noah Syndergaard experiment didn’t work out as the Guardians designated him for assignment after six starts and a 5.40 ERA. The Guardians did manage to go 3-3 in his starts, and in one of the losses he allowed just one run, so he’s hardly the reason the team has fallen behind the Twins after starting the month just one game out of first place. Indeed, they can look at their 5-8 record against the White Sox and 3-7 record against the Tigers as two teams they should have — or could have — done better against. They do have one last series against the Twins beginning Monday, and they’ll need to sweep that to have any chance at the division. — Schoenfield
Record: 62-72
Previous ranking: 23
The Nationals lost to the Blue Jays on Wednesday for their first series loss after previously winning six straight in August against the A’s, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees and Marlins. They are 26-18 in the second half, the same record as the Phillies and nearly as good as the Braves (27-16) and Astros (27-17). They’ve done that despite a 5.16 ERA that ranks in the bottom third in the majors since the All-Star break. The offense ranks in the bottom half of the majors in OPS in the second half, so I wouldn’t necessarily interpret this stretch as a sure sign that the Nationals are suddenly much improved. But they’re learning to win, and the organization will no doubt look to improve its roster depth in the offseason.
One key that has kept their season respectable: They’ve used just seven starters, tied for fewest in the majors. Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Trevor Williams have each made 26 starts, while Patrick Corbin made his 27th Wednesday. — Schoenfield
Record: 64-70
Previous ranking: 19
The Angels flooded the waiver wire with a handful of notable players on Tuesday, a list that included starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk, and relievers Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. The decision was made, at least in part, in an effort to get back under the luxury-tax threshold. But it also embodied their harsh reality.
By that point, the Angels had gone 7-17 since the Aug. 1 trade deadline — a time when they not only decided to keep Shohei Ohtani, but also shed prospects to acquire some of the aforementioned rentals. Ohtani has since been diagnosed with a torn UCL that will prevent him from pitching the rest of the year, Mike Trout is back on the IL, and nobody seems to have any idea if Anthony Rendon will play again this season. The Angels’ decisions a month ago — inspired as it might have been — might ultimately set this franchise back several years. — Gonzalez
Record: 61-73
Previous ranking: 22
Francisco Lindor has quietly reached 5.1 WAR, which ranks him 10th among all position players. With a strong finish, he has a chance to reach 100 runs and 100 RBIs in the same season for the first time in his career, after just missing last season (98 runs, 107 RBIs). Some of his value is in quantity — he’s missed just two games — but he’s played excellent defense (he could win a Gold Glove) and swiped 24 bases in 26 attempts. His 118 OPS+ is right at his career average of 117. Does it feel like he’s been one of the best players in the game? Not really, but other than his mediocre .251 average, he’s excelled at everything else. — Schoenfield
Record: 59-74
Previous ranking: 24
Reports came out this week that Casey Mize, who has missed the entire 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, faced live batters last weekend for the first time during his recovery process. It’s not out of the question that we could see Mize before the end of the season. He wouldn’t be stretched out, but, nevertheless, the Tigers could get a glimpse of their core 2024 rotation on the same MLB staff for the first time all season.
Two of those building blocks — Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal — continue to trend in the right direction. Manning, who tweaked his back in his last outing and had to have a scheduled start pushed back, has allowed just one earned run over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Skubal has a 3.93 ERA over 10 starts since returning to the big league rotation on July 4. He’s really been even better than that: Skubal’s 2.41 FIP since that date is the best in the majors, according to Fangraphs. — Doolittle
Record: 61-73
Previous ranking: 26
Mitch Keller has returned to pre-All Star break form as he pitched eight scoreless innings against the Cubs last Friday. Including his previous two starts, Keller has given up just three runs over 20 innings. Take away three earlier outings in the second half, where he gave up 22 runs, and Keller has been one of the better pitchers in the game. It gives the Pirates a pitcher to build around as they slowly attempt to come out of a long rebuilding cycle. The long awaited return of Oneil Cruz was unfortunately put on hold as his injury wasn’t fully healed. Pittsburgh missed him as the season wore on, coinciding with their fall in the standings. — Rogers
Record: 58-76
Previous ranking: 25
Playing out the string has not looked pretty for the Cardinals. The one thing to play for isn’t even going their way as Adam Wainwright is still stuck on 198 wins. He’s pitched better in two of his last three starts, but the offense has dried up with him on the mound — scoring a total of six runs in those outings. As a team, St. Louis had the worst week at the plate in MLB, hitting just .147 with a .470 OPS over a five-day span ending Tuesday. Nolan Arenado went 0-for-15 during that stretch while Nolan Gorman went 1-for-13. Ugly doesn’t begin to describe the Cardinals’ season. — Rogers
Record: 53-81
Previous ranking: 28
Despite Chicago’s struggles, Luis Robert Jr. has set career marks in doubles and home runs in his breakout year. He’s also been consistent, hitting at least five long balls in each month while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center. Robert isn’t fully formed as a hitter just yet — as evidenced by his 149-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio — but he’s chasing 3% less than last season, meaning he’s improving upon his big weakness. As the White Sox retool, they have a player to build around. It’s one bright spot in an otherwise terrible year for the organization. — Rogers
Record: 49-84
Previous ranking: 27
The worst run-differential in Rockies history took place in 1993, the team’s inaugural season, when they finished at minus-209. With more than a month of baseball ahead of them, the 2023 Rockies stand at minus-197. They’re also on pace for their first 100-loss season in franchise history. The Rockies have been a disaster since they last reached the postseason in 2018. And given that their farm system ranked 18th when ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel revealed his updated rankings in mid-August, it could be a while until they’re relevant again. — Gonzalez
Record: 41-94
Previous ranking: 29
The Royals may have pulled off a rare coup — for them — in picking up Cole Ragans in the Aroldis Chapman trade. The former first-round pick had struggled in a relief role with the Rangers with a 5.95 ERA, but the Royals moved him into their rotation after a brief hiatus in Triple-A. In seven starts, he has a 1.73 ERA with 56 strikeouts and just one home run in 41⅔ innings — including back-to-back scoreless outings with 20 strikeouts in his last two starts. Ragans has had two Tommy John surgeries and was throwing in the 92-93 mph range with the Rangers, but his velocity has suddenly ticked up to 96 mph and his cutter and slider have been dominant as well. His 53 strikeouts in August tied for the second most in a month in Royals history behind Dennis Leonard, who had 55 in June of 1977. — Schoenfield
Record: 39-95
Previous ranking: 30
The A’s, who will host the Angels over the weekend, haven’t notched a home sweep of at least three games all year. They had a prime opportunity to do so last Wednesday, against the similarly hapless Royals, but they were shut out in the finale. The A’s offense ranks dead last in the majors in OPS and has been shut out 14 times so far this year, tied with the Tigers, Mets and Royals for the major league lead. Zero sweeps at home, but they’ve been the victim of a home sweep on eight occasions. — Gonzalez
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Jake Trotter
Oklahoma quarterback and Heisman frontrunner John Mateer will undergo surgery on his right hand, the school announced Tuesday.
Mateer suffered the injury to his throwing hand during the first quarter of Saturday’s 24-17 win over Auburn, with sources telling ESPN’s Pete Thamel that Mateer has a broken bone in the hand.
While Oklahoma coach Brent Venables didn’t provide a specific timetable for Mateer’s return, sources told Thamel that the estimated timeline after surgery is expected to be about a month, as the surgery is considered straight-forward.
Mateer is scheduled to undergo the surgery Wednesday in Los Angeles.
“After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future,” Venables said. “He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.”
Mateer’s injury is a massive blow to the seventh-ranked Sooners, who are off to a 4-0 start with wins over Michigan and Auburn.
Mateer, who transferred in from Washington State during the offseason, has been the catalyst behind Oklahoma’s stark turnaround after a 6-7 finish in 2024.
He’s completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 and six touchdowns. He’s also the Sooners’ leading rusher with 190 yards and five more touchdowns. Mateer ranks second nationally with 351.3 yards of total offense per game.
Despite suffering the injury early against Auburn, he finished the game and passed for 271 yards.
With his hot start, Mateer had emerged as the favorite to win the Heisman at +750, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+650) is the new Heisman favorite at ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Venables said that sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will start Oklahoma’s next game against Kent State on Oct. 4 Hawkins started four games for the Sooners last year. He passed for 783 yards and three touchdowns.
Oklahoma faces rival Texas on Oct. 11.
After a road trip to South Carolina, the Sooners close out the regular season with five straight games against ranked opponents: No. 13 Ole Miss, at No. 15 Tennessee, at No. 18 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU.
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Bradford Doolittle
Which playoff team most needs to win the World Series?
This is a question we try to answer around this time every year. What builds the pressure to win right now? The answer is a little different for every team, and the force of that pressure changes with each passing season. Teams age. Free agents leave and arrive. Playoff disappointments pile up. Playoff absences chafe.
The more success a team has without winning it all, the more the pressure builds up. Not until it wins it all does that pressure finally release, resetting the valve, and fans of that team can relax. Only the Dodgers’ faithful are in a state of pure release — because L.A. won just last year.
Let’s take a look at how the current contenders rate on the pressure scale.
The Pressure Index formula
The original incarnation of our system was based on an old Bill James method for calculating “pressure points.” Last year, we tweaked our methodology a little to add measurable narrative-based factors to the numbers-based historical context, and that worked pretty well, so we’ve carried that over for the coming 2025 MLB playoffs.
The revised Pressure Index considers the following factors, ranked in order by the weight they carry in the final calculation:
1. Drought pressure: This is all about flags, both World Series titles and pennants. The championship part of this factor counts twice as much as the pennant factor. The current leader is the Cleveland Guardians, owners of baseball’s longest title drought at 76 years. Teams coming off a title — e.g., the Dodgers — have no drought pressure. The New York Yankees, as the defending American League champs, get a little release from the drought factor for ending their pennant-less streak, but the pressure won’t fully dissipate until the Bombers win it all.
2. Knock-knock pressure: There is a whole different pressure for a franchise that lingers well below .500 year after year than there is for a franchise that consistently plays winning baseball and yet can’t seem to get anywhere in October. Looking at the most recent 25-year window, the knock-knock factor counts winning seasons weighted from most recent to most distant. The Yankees, with their active streak of 33 straight winning seasons, have the most knock-knock points. The 2025 season standings were included in this calculation.
3. Flickering star pressure: Using AXE ratings, we calculate the average AXE of a team’s pending free agents. Players with a club option are not included in this tally. Using the average adds to the pressure of clubs such as the Philadelphia Phillies, who have star players (Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez) about to hit free agency.
4. Exodus pressure: Another free agent factor: Using AXE ratings again, we tally the total AXE points for a team’s pending free agents. Again, players with a club option are not included. Losing a star player hurts — but so does having a lot of holes to fill.
5. Father Time pressure: Time comes for us all. The older a team is, the shorter its window of opportunity for elite contention. This factor is based on average team ages, hitters and pitchers combined.
The rankings
Note: This includes every team that currently has at least a 5% chance at making the postseason, per our daily simulations.
Pressure Index: 109.5
Last pennant: 1982
Last World Series title: Never
The Brewers topped our leaderboard a year ago and went on to drop a tough wild-card series at American Family Field to the Mets. Then, despite preseason forecasts that marked them as a fringe playoff hopeful, they went out and put up what might well end up as the most successful regular season in franchise history. Based on what we’ve seen to date, the Brewers have never been in a better position to win their first World Series. They’ve had great regular seasons before — perhaps not as great as this one — but the only thing that will quench the ever-thirsty fans in Wisconsin is the city’s first MLB championship since the 1957 Milwaukee Braves.
Pressure Index: 108.0
Last pennant: 1998
Last World Series title: Never
The Brewers have gone longer without a pennant and have also piled up more good seasons than San Diego, or else the Pads might have landed in the top spot. There isn’t a factor for trade deadline aggression, but if there were, the Padres might have overtaken the Brewers for that reason, too. Because many of the players moved at the deadline tend to be headed for free agency, that’s a pretty good proxy for the kind of internally generated pressure that goes with an aggressive deadline approach. The Padres have the third-most exodus points and are fifth in the flickering star column. Among those who might hit the market are Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and Michael King (mutual option) and Robert Suarez (player option). Given that list and A.J. Preller’s frenetic deadline behavior, the time to win for San Diego is very much right now.
Pressure Index: 107.8
Last pennant: Never
Last World Series title: Never
Speaking of deadline activity, the Mariners’ pickups of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez signaled a clear win-now approach. Both will be free agents after the season. Beyond that, as the only active team that has never won a pennant, the pressure has been building in Seattle since the day the Mariners debuted in 1977. Finally, though Cal Raleigh‘s history-making breakout season doesn’t factor into the Pressure Index, you could argue that in a sense it should because we can’t expect to see him at this level after 2025. That’s not a knock on him — he should remain an All-Star-caliber backstop. But few have ever reached the pinnacle Raleigh is at in 2025, and those who have gotten there have tended not to stay there.
Pressure Index: 106.5
Last pennant: 2016
Last World Series title: 1948
A late-season surge, combined with the Tigers’ collapse, has resoundingly returned the Guardians to this portion of our rankings. As has been the case the past couple of years, the Guardians’ pressure is almost entirely generated by their decades-long title drought. There are so many ways to contextualize it, but here’s a fun one: The last time Cleveland won the World Series, one of its top relief pitchers was Satchel Paige. Because winning a pennant relieves the drought points column a little, the Guardians’ 2016 pennant is recent enough to keep them behind the top three on this list in that area. However, only two teams have more knock-knock points than the consistently solid Guardians — the Yankees and Cardinals.
Pressure Index: 105.1
Last pennant: 1993
Last World Series title: 1993
The Blue Jays’ rise from fifth place to first place in the AL East has ratcheted up the tension for a franchise that hasn’t seen the World Series in more than three decades despite a number of strong teams during that span. The Jays also have some big-name free agents in Bo Bichette, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Shane Bieber, who has a player option. Imagine what the pressure might feel like if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had not inked an extension back in April.
Pressure Index: 104.6
Last pennant: 2015
Last World Series title: 1986
If we based these ratings on media scrutiny and payroll, the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers would never fall out of the top three slots. For the Mets, their real-world pressure can’t be captured by an algorithm like this, mostly because of a combination of preseason expectation fueled by the addition of Juan Soto in the offseason, and the downward-pointing trajectory of what once looked like a banner season. If the Mets capture the NL’s last postseason spot — not even close to a sure thing at this point — the consternation generated by their lackluster second half can be addressed with a deep playoff run. But that doesn’t feel too likely at the moment.
Pressure Index: 104.5
Last pennant: 2024
Last World Series title: 2009
The defending AL champs! Good enough? Didn’t think so. The World Series returned to the Bronx last fall, but watching the Dodgers celebrate a title at Yankee Stadium didn’t do much to turn down the temperature on fan expectation. There was also the Soto factor, given his possible departure, which of course came to pass. Still, the Yankees restocked in free agency, added aggressively at the deadline and added even more points to their MLB-leading knock-knock total with a 33rd straight winning season. But let’s face it: This is the Yankees, and the only thing that will ease the scrutiny is a championship.
Pressure Index: 102.8
Last pennant: 2012
Last World Series title: 1984
Last season’s playoff berth felt like found money for the Tigers. Not so this time around, as Detroit has led the AL Central for virtually the entire season. Its lead over Cleveland in the division, once in double figures, has all but disappeared, and what looked like a certain return to the playoffs is now in doubt. A four-decade title drought feeds the Tigers’ Pressure Index, as does a fairly splashy free agent class that includes Kyle Finnegan, Jack Flaherty (player option), Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb, Chris Paddack, Tommy Kahnle and Gleyber Torres. Still, even if Detroit’s late-season swoon culminates in an early playoff exit, Tigers fans can take solace in a young roster core and a loaded minor league system. This is only the beginning of the adventure.
Pressure Index: 101.4
Last pennant: 2022
Last World Series title: 2008
Drought points are the most heavily weighted factor in the system, and the Phillies’ 2008 title and 2022 pennant are recent enough to keep their score low in that category. But they still land in the top 10 of the Pressure Index because of their looming free agent class (led by Schwarber and Ranger Suarez) and a veteran roster that ranks second in overall average team age. Under GM Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have been building with the near-term window at the forefront of their planning for a few years now. At some point, and soon, it needs to pay off with their third World Series crown in 143 years of existence.
Pressure Index: 101.2
Last pennant: 1990
Last World Series title: 1990
The Reds’ Mets-fueled playoff odds resurgence lands them here in the contenders’ group, where Cincinnati’s ever-growing drought in both the championship and pennant columns looms large. This isn’t in the calculation, but you might also consider the Reds’ dynamic young rotation as a soft factor. The way Hunter Greene and Brady Singer have thrown lately, and the way Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have pitched for much of the season, you’d love to see what the Reds might do in a playoff context. And although these are all pretty young pitchers — and the Reds have more in the pipeline — pitching is a mercurial thing. You want to take advantage of it while it’s going good.
Pressure Index: 99.9
Last pennant: 2016
Last World Series title: 2016
Coming to you live from Chicago: We can report that the euphoria over the Cubs’ drought-ending championship in 2016 is largely yesterday’s news. (No, it won’t be forgotten, but it’s been nine years, after all.) The Cubs entered the season as the NL Central favorite, and although it’s been a strong campaign on the North Side, they are looking at a wild-card berth. That’s progress — the Cubs had missed the playoffs four years running — and expectations remain high. A midseason offensive slump was a cause for concern, but the Cubs have been going well of late. Hovering over all this is the pending free agency of the Cubs’ splashy offseason pickup, outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Pressure Index: 99.4
Last pennant: 2023
Last World Series title: 2001
You could argue the Diamondbacks don’t really have any pressure on them at all. For one thing, they have been a fringe hopeful, one that needed the continuing cooperation of the flagging Mets to stay alive. Arizona also waved a faint white flag in advance of the deadline by dealing Naylor and Suarez. But the Diamondbacks’ offense has been strong over the past few weeks, keeping their postseason window ajar. After all this, if Arizona ends up in the bracket, it’ll have to feel like it’s got nothing to lose.
Pressure Index: 99.3
Last pennant: 2018
Last World Series title: 2018
The Red Sox, once synonymous with the concept of “championship drought,” are good in that crucial column at present. Sure, in Boston, seven years without a banner might feel like a long time after the Red Sox’s run of four titles in 15 years, but it’s really not. Boston does rank high in the knock-knock column (fourth) and in the flickering star category (second). That’s because of possible free agencies for Alex Bregman and Trevor Story (both have player options). It would be worse if Aroldis Chapman had not signed an extension.
Pressure Index: 97.3
Last pennant: 2022
Last World Series title: 2022
The Astros aren’t dealing with a drought. But the roster is on the old side (ninth in average age) and is looking at the possible free agent departure of Framber Valdez. The window felt like it was starting to close when we entered the season, and the Astros have teetered more than once through the summer. After a weekend sweep by the rival Mariners, those wishing for a Houston-less postseason are feeling more hopeful than ever. The declining Astros need to take advantage of this contention opportunity while they can.
Pressure Index: 90.0
Last pennant: 2024
Last World Series title: 2024
The Dodgers’ drought points reset with last season’s title. At the same time, Los Angeles puts pressure on itself by funneling so many resources into building and managing its roster. There is no pressure on the Dodgers in the context of the Pressure Index approach, but L.A. has created a dynamic where you have to consider any season in which it doesn’t win as at least a mild disappointment. Then of course there is one major soft factor for this year’s Dodgers: This is the last go-round for Clayton Kershaw, and the desire to send him into retirement with a second straight championship has to be looming large in the organization.
Pressure Index for all other teams
16. Baltimore Orioles (103.3)
17. Pittsburgh Pirates (102.2)
18. Athletics (102.1)
19. Minnesota Twins (101.6)
20. St. Louis Cardinals (100.5)
21. Los Angeles Angels (99.7)
22. Tampa Bay Rays (98.2)
23. Atlanta Braves (97.6)
24. San Francisco Giants (96.9)
25. Chicago White Sox (96.5)
26. Texas Rangers (95.6)
27. Colorado Rockies (96.1)
28. Kansas City Royals (95.1)
29. Washington Nationals (92.9)
30. Miami Marlins (84.1)
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Alden Gonzalez
The hardest-thrown pitch of Shohei Ohtani‘s career came on the day his team might have least expected it.
It was June 28 in Kansas City, and the weather was so hot around midday that Ohtani at one point crouched in the corner of Kauffman Stadium’s left-field bullpen to rest underneath the only sliver of shade available. His fastball barely broke 90 mph as he prepared for that afternoon’s game, worrying some of the Los Angeles Dodgers coaches. Then came the first inning. The Royals had two men on with one out. Vinnie Pasquantino, a notorious fastball hitter, came to bat. Ohtani sought to challenge him and unleashed a four-seamer that traveled 101.7 mph, inducing a double play and eliciting a lighthearted response from the Royals’ first baseman.
To a staff still learning about the pitching version of Ohtani, that pitch revealed something about the way his stuff reacts when it’s met with adrenaline, and what it might mean within the backdrop of baseball’s postseason. Said Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior: “He just has this ability to turn it on.”
Ohtani is scheduled to make his last regular-season start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, a development that might be serendipitous. Ohtani is now perfectly lined up to start Game 1 of next week’s wild-card round, in which L.A. is likely to take part. And though the Dodgers have yet to announce a rotation for that three-game series, it seems fitting that Ohtani would kick-start these playoffs as a two-way player. For years, fans throughout the world have been clamoring to see the most unique player in baseball history perform to his maximum capabilities on the sport’s grandest stage. Why delay it further?
“Everybody’s waiting for that moment, when he takes the ball in a big game and he has to go bat in the same [inning],” Ohtani’s teammate, Teoscar Hernández, said. “It’s gonna be exciting. I can’t wait.”
Any lingering concerns about Ohtani’s viability as a postseason pitcher were alleviated seven days ago, when, in his 13th start since a second repair of his ulnar collateral ligament, he no-hit the mighty Philadelphia Phillies through five innings. Ohtani matched his career-high velocity that night — on a pitch to Kyle Schwarber, who’s tied with Ohtani for the National League lead in home runs — and later triggered more questions about whether the Dodgers should stretch him further.
In their past three turns through the rotation, the Dodgers’ six starting pitchers have posted a 2.17 ERA. In that same stretch, their relievers have combined for a 4.91 ERA. The Dodgers used a dominant bullpen to overcome a thin rotation last October. This year, it’s their rotation that’s strong and their bullpen that’s weak — a dynamic that prompted Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to openly wonder if Ohtani’s right arm might be more useful out of the bullpen. Ohtani himself even threw out the possibility of playing the outfield, a necessity to stay in the lineup once he finishes pitching in relief.
But there is no need to ponder alternatives at this moment — Ohtani will be a starting pitcher in the playoffs, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said.
Anything else would be forced out of chaos and desperation.
“To Shohei’s credit, he’s like, ‘Hey, I’m willing to do anything,'” Friedman said. “It really indicates how much he wants to win. I can’t say enough for a star of that level to be so selfless in opening the door to whatever we think gives us the best chance to win — but I think he’s one of the better starting pitchers in baseball.”
Ohtani is all but guaranteed his fourth MVP Award in five years. His first year with the Dodgers saw him become the first ever 50/50 player, claim his first championship in his first trip to the postseason and then become the first full-time designated hitter to win an MVP.
His stolen-base totals are down significantly this season, from 59 to 19, an anticipated by-product of his pitching buildup. But the rest of his offensive numbers — .283/.395/.623 slash line, 53 home runs, 173 weighted runs created plus — are basically on par. And he’s pairing it with a 3.29 ERA in 41 innings, putting him at 8.9 fWAR heading into the final week of the regular season. Most importantly, he seems to be getting stronger as October approaches — a frequently stated goal as the Dodgers delayed his return to pitching and layered the innings in slowly, keeping him to a maximum of nine outs until August.
“I think that we couldn’t be more pleased with how it’s played out,” Roberts said. “Obviously Shohei’s the driver of this, but the training staff, the coaches have all done a great job kind of managing it. His teammates have done a great job of allowing for the different starts, the days in between. But looking at where we were at in spring training, to be here now, just overjoyed.”
When the playoffs come, Ohtani will bat leadoff every game and, as has been the case throughout his major league career, make pitching starts on five or six days’ rest. Roberts doesn’t believe he’ll have to do any managing of Ohtani outside of how long his starts will last, though that alone might get complicated.
In Ohtani’s return to pitching, the Dodgers have been more cognizant of innings than pitch count because of the stress of alternating between activity and rest. That was never more evident than last Tuesday, when Ohtani was taken out just 68 pitches into a no-hitter because the Dodgers had predetermined he would not pitch beyond the fifth inning.
Whether such a strict innings limit will continue in the playoffs remains to be seen — but the possibility of Ohtani playing the outfield is basically out of the question. Ohtani has not taken a single fly ball all year. And though the Dodgers believe he’s athletic enough to make such a quick transition, they would worry about him having to make a high-stress throw. They also don’t want to force him into such an unorthodox situation in such a high-stakes environment. In other words, they don’t want to set him up to fail.
As one Dodgers source put it: “That wouldn’t be fair to him.”
So, Ohtani will start. Unless chaos emerges, which it often does. Friedman pointed to the night of Oct. 30, 2024, when starting pitcher Walker Buehler came out of the Yankee Stadium bullpen to close out the World Series because the Dodgers had run out of pitchers. Ohtani might be called on to do something similar if the moment is right, Friedman allowed.
If they’re wondering how he might handle it, they can merely look back at the finale of the 2023 World Baseball Classic, when Ohtani sealed a championship for Japan by striking out then-Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout with an 87.2 mph sweeper.
The pitch before that: a fastball, at 101.6.
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