The 2025 MLB playoffs are rolling along!

After the wild-card round ended with a trio of Game 3s, the division series matchups are set with all four Game 1s starting Saturday.

Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Is this the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally get to the Fall Classic? Will the Philadelphia Phillies make another deep run after a strong regular season?

MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all — or go home early — and a name to watch for on all 12 World Series hopefuls.

Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.

Series outlooks | Schedule | Bracket | ESPN BET

Jump to a team:
TOR | SEA | NYY | DET
MIL | PHI | LAD | CHC

American League

No. 1 seed | 94-68 | AL East champs

ALDS opponent: Yankees (47.4% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.0% | ESPN BET Odds: +750

Team temperature: 91°

Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out, and they field as cleanly as any team in the postseason field. Toronto has scuffled lately, yes, and the culprit is a punchless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the game’s best units in runs scored as well as wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to mash their way past teams. They’ll need good pitching, and while there isn’t a clear ace or lockdown bullpen piece, they have droves of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence isn’t accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is quite the excellent predictor of success. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At age 35, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach by focusing more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate stable anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, hitting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and winning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season centered around putting the ball in play and not striking out while still featuring some power. But that pop vanished down the stretch before turning it on the final weekend. Their struggles correspond with Bo Bichette going on the injured list with a sprained knee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who hasn’t been cleared to begin running. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will hold a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July and August, pretty good in the other months, and on the whole, has allowed way too many home runs and absorbed way too many blown saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will rest largely on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Three true outcomes baseball got you down? Tune in to some Blue Jays baseball to fulfill all of your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play in 81.7% of its plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an AL team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — Doolittle

No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs

ALDS opponent: Tigers (51.6% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +550

Team temperature: 88°

Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is replete with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven shutout frames. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they’ve got the Big Dumper. Regardless of his might this year, Cal Raleigh himself can’t carry an entire team, which is why it’s nice to have Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup, too. And as long as Bryan Woo remains healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo might be the best in the postseason. Finish off with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Munoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodriguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the more obvious choice, but after his historic power season, it’s possible teams will pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the final two-plus months and bats after Raleigh in the lineup. Throw in some spectacular center-field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since … well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … Woo’s injury is a real issue. The All-Star, who exited his start on Sept. 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and he’s responded well from treatment, but Woo will go into the postseason without having pitched in a game in over two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA over 30 starts. He is critical to their World Series chances. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers. And in 2025, he cemented that by making his first All-Star team, the high point of a regular season in which he won 15 games, posted a 2.94 ERA, compiled 186⅔ innings and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that didn’t find itself until recently. Woo exited his last start with pectoral tightness. The hope is he’ll be good to go for the playoffs. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Behold the historic firsts … or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run ticker rolls back to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he’ll still attract plenty of attention, that number zero looms large over the Mariners’ franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the ALCS, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland — possible obstacles this year as well. — Doolittle

No. 4 seed | 94-68 | AL wild card

Wild-card result: Defeated Red Sox in three games

Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (52.6% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +475

Team temperature: 115°

Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that’s not going to be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement it with a lineup of hitters who, even taking out Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would rank seventh in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around him. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have one of the game’s best starting pairs, and their relief pitching is showing good signs over the past week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting homers, they’ll be tough to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular-season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 over his past three postseasons across 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he’s certainly due for a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … relievers don’t perform to their track records. The names in New York’s bullpen pop: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. All four have been successful closers at the major league level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since adding Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half proved its floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their last road game of the regular season, collecting four hits, including the 10th-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will find himself in it often in October, whether he’s at first base or behind the plate. This lineup seems deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power.” — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Well, let’s face it, you root for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them around. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally goes off in October, it’s just good, solid baseball history that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — Doolittle

No. 6 seed | 87-75 | AL wild card

Wild-card result: Defeated Guardians in three games

ALDS opponent: Mariners (48.4% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 7.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +1200

Team temperature: 57°

Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the AL. Recent travails notwithstanding, this is a good baseball team, and even with a number of pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth — and in manager A.J. Hinch the acumen — to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball the past two seasons and one hell of an assignment for the Mariners if they have to face him twice in a five-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the slugging of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson shows up, find top-level form from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too long not knowing the feeling. –– Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the past 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels have won the award in the past 20 postseasons. So maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and the strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some big home runs. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t carry its weight. Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, recorded a 2.42 ERA in four September starts. And yet the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was still a bloated 4.84. That helps explain the team’s near-monumental collapse, though the offense and bullpen didn’t help matters. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, did not pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their ALDS roster. It marked his first season back from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never truly felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with help from a solid enough September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly blowing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters are going to have to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to prove he can. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the nosediving Tigers, who squeaked into the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only AL contender in a late-season free fall. Detroit’s .291 September winning percentage doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented reversal.. Only 10 eventual champs have sported a last-month winning percentage under .500. The worst was the .414 mark (12-17) of the 2006 Cardinals — who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — Doolittle

National League

No. 1 seed | 97-65 | NL Central champs

NLDS opponent: Cubs (56.2% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +750

Team temperature: 67°

Why they can win the World Series: They’ve been the best team in baseball over six months. In the modern game, that takes a blend of depth, player development and fidelity to an ethos that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, unstack it and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play — disciplined and smart and fully bought-in — is an enviable brand of baseball. They’re a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, sure. But really fun because they bully without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in today’s game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There’s always the chance that a consistently winning team never makes the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ over 111 (and two more over 100), the NL-best 164 steals, the glovework that’s among the best in MLB by every publicly available defensive metric — it makes sense. They’re the best for a reason. So why would that change? — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Brice Turang is no longer just a slick-fielding second baseman with speed. He has added power this season, especially in the second half — during which he’s slugged over .500. He hits righties and lefties, does a good job of not chasing out of the zone and can pound fastballs. Oh, and he hit .364 with runners in scoring position. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … their lack of power catches up with them. Runs are often scarce in October when teams maximize deploying their best pitchers. And while manufacturing them by any means necessary is the goal, hitting home runs is an indicator of October success. The only team to finish outside the top nine in home runs for a season and reach the World Series over the past five years was the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers, meanwhile, finished this season tied for 21st in home runs with Christian Yelich’s 29 leading the way. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: The hype that surrounded Jacob Misiorowski at midseason, prompting a surprising All-Star appearance despite fewer than 30 career major league innings, has since faded. In nine starts since then, his ERA is 5.45. He’s no longer good enough to crack the Brewers’ postseason rotation. Not yet, anyway. The team, though, is considering using him out of the bullpen, and that’s when things could get really interesting. Misiorowski captivated the nation because he possessed some of the sport’s most devastating stuff despite taking on the workload of a starting pitcher. Out of the bullpen, that triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would certainly play, especially in October. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: The Brewers are one of the three teams in this year’s field — along with the Mariners and Padres — hunting for their first title. But this was the best regular season in Milwaukee’s history, and for the first time since 1982, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with the best record in MLB. Intangibly, this is perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing team to watch, featuring flashy defenders, a number of high-volume base stealers and a lot of balls in play. In other words, the reasons to watch and root for the Brew Crew are many. It would be much harder to identify reasons you would not want to root for them. — Doolittle

No. 2 seed | 96-66 | NL East champs

NLDS opponent: Dodgers (49.8% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +475

Team temperature: 90°

Why they can win the World Series: Kyle Schwarber is made for October, and he will hold court, along with Bryce Harper, Cristopher Sanchez, Jhoan Duran and the rest of the cavalcade, in front of the most raucous crowd in baseball at Citizens Bank Park. Those are the featured players, but the Phillies’ run could hinge on their four starters’ capacity to go deep into games. The bullpen is top-heavy, and the top is good, but if they aren’t scared off by the third time through the order like so many others, the Phillies can ride their rotation far. Schwarber and Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances and are two of the best playoff performers of their generation. If the Phillies can hit some timely home runs — eight others on the roster reached double-digit homers — their case, already perhaps the most compelling in baseball, gets that much stronger. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: We have two logical choices here: Schwarber and Harper. Both have been outstanding in the playoffs. Schwarber has a .906 OPS and 21 home runs in 69 games, and Harper has a 1.016 OPS and 17 home runs in 53 games. Schwarber, of course, had a monster regular season. Let’s go with Harper, though. He knows how to lock in for October better than any other active hitter, and with time possibly running out on this aging Phillies team, it might be now or never for Harper to win a World Series. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … Trea Turner doesn’t quickly find his rhythm. Turner was placed on the injured list because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain Sept. 8. He was activated Friday and played in Sunday’s season finale. The Phillies’ offense hummed without Turner behind Schwarber’s continued dominance of opposing pitchers, but October is a different beast, and Turner is an elite talent who could change Philadelphia’s playoff fortunes. The shortstop won the NL batting title, led the league with 179 hits and stole 36 bases. A healthy Turner adds another dimension. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Jhoan Duran got a taste of postseason baseball with the Twins in 2023, but he has never experienced it quite like at “The Bank,” with his walkout song blaring through what is widely considered the loudest, most boisterous ballpark this time of year. The Phillies’ front office beat out a bevy of suitors for Duran at the trade deadline, and he has been everything the team could have imagined, locking down the back end of a leaky bullpen and looking very much like the final player of a title quest. Soon, the ninth inning will come, and “El Incomprendido” will play. Philly will be ready. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Tired of the bullpen parade? The Phillies are your team. Philadelphia far and away paced the majors in innings from starters. It wasn’t just volume either, as Philly logged baseball’s third-best rotation ERA (3.57). And it wasn’t because the Phillies preached pitch to contact: Philadelphia led all of baseball in strikeout rate from starting pitchers, and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Sure, the loss of Zack Wheeler is a bummer, but the Sanchez-led rotation remains the foundation of the Phillies and their greatest hopes to traverse the bullpen-heavy staffs of the rest of the bracket en route to the World Series. — Doolittle

No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL West champs

Wild-card result: Defeated Reds in two games

NLDS opponent: Phillies (50.2 chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +375

Team temperature: 113°

Why they can win the World Series: They did it last year and pretty much everyone who contributed to that team is back — plus a few more. This time, they’ve got to get through the wild-card series, which is no fun, but their starting pitching depth is truly daunting. No matter how they deploy Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, any permutation works. The bullpen is … a work in progress. But if you’re seeking a functional relief corps on the fly, there are worse places to start than with a group of 10 who have thrown out of the bullpen this month, seven at 95-plus (including Roki Sasaki), with Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw likewise at the ready. As for the hitters: Ohtani will win his second straight NL MVP, Mookie Betts is right again, Freddie Freeman in October is automatic and even if Will Smith is out, what the Dodgers manage better than anyone is depth, and despite the disappointment of the regular season, there exists this truth: If every team plays its best, the Dodgers are better than all of them. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: How about Freeman in a repeat performance? Hey, Corey Seager won in 2020 and 2023 (for two different teams), although no player has won MVP in back-to-back World Series. Freeman has played 11 World Series games — and reached via a hit in all 11 with an OPS of 1.171. He never lets the moment get too big, and another big World Series would cement his status as one of the all-time great clutch postseason performers. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the bullpen sinks this behemoth. Six different Dodgers relievers finished September with an ERA north of 5.00. Their team bullpen ERA for the month that ranked 26th in baseball. Only three teams blew more saves. Tanner Scott‘s first season in Los Angeles was a colossal disappointment. Kirby Yates, their other major free agent bullpen addition, landed on the injured list again during the final week of the regular season. Brock Stewart, the only reliever acquired at the trade deadline, pitched in four games before going on the IL. As a result, the Dodgers will supplement the bullpen with starters; Kershaw, Sasaki and Sheehan all figure to play significant relief roles in October. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Baseball fans were delighted to see Ohtani grace the postseason stage last October, but that was only half of him. This year, Ohtani will be fully unlocked. He’ll pitch — in Game 1 of the division series against the Phillies — and he’ll hit, with few, if any, limitations. The Dodgers were very careful in how they handled Ohtani’s pitching return, all with the thought of making sure he was at his best going into October. That goal was accomplished. Ohtani has once again proven he can be as dominant on the mound as he is in the batter’s box. Now, he’ll show it when it really counts. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: You like dynasties? Another Dodgers title would further cement L.A.’s dominance over the rest of baseball. The Dodgers looked far more vulnerable than predicted during the season, and their struggles continued into the latter stages of the regular season. But Ohtani will unleash his two-way act in the playoffs for the first time, Betts has turned around his down season, and everyone wants to send Kershaw into retirement on a high note. Dynasties are dynasties because they win even when their plans haven’t unfolded exactly as they foresaw. — Doolittle

No. 4 seed | 92-70 | NL wild card

Wild-card result: Defeated Padres in three games

NLDS opponent: Brewers (43.8% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +800

Team temperature: 87°

Why they can win the World Series: They’re a magnificent defensive team, they’ve got Kyle Tucker back to charge an offense that has been a bottom-quarter run-scoring team in the second half, and Daniel Palencia has also returned with his velocity. Maybe their flashes of excellence when they were healthy get rekindled. The Cubs might not be as talented as the NL elite, but their lineup is filled with hitters willing to take walks and not striking out exorbitantly. That kind of approach — and home run hitting — win in October, and the Cubs have both. Keep the steady performances from Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller to lengthen the bullpen and hope for a mid-postseason return by Cade Horton, who would immediately make their chances that much better. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Ian Happ. Tucker has battled multiple injuries in the second half, including a calf injury that sidelined him most of September. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dropped off significantly in the second half. Seiya Suzuki has likewise slumped. Happ is the overlooked member of the Cubs’ lineup, but he’s a switch-hitter with power, he gets on base, controls his strikeouts reasonably well, has hit well in the second half and usually bats second or third, giving him plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the late injuries pushed them off track. The Cubs’ best every-day player (Tucker), top starting pitcher (Horton) and closer (Palencia) dealt with injuries down the stretch. Though Tucker (calf) and Palencia (shoulder) returned from the injured list during the regular season’s final week, Horton was pulled from his start last Tuesday because of back tightnesss and placed on the injured list Saturday because of a rib fracture, the team announced. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Here’s one thing we know about the Cubs going into these playoffs: they’re going to have to score runs, especially with Horton out for at least the first round. Kyle Tucker missed most of September and Pete Crow-Armstrong had the majors’ lowest OPS among qualified hitters after the start of August, which only heightens the pressure on someone like Michael Busch. There’s plenty of reason for hope. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately, but Busch, 27, has been at his best over these last couple weeks and led the team with 34 home runs this season. He’ll be at the top of the lineup against righties and his production will be critical. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: An eight-year title drought is small potatoes in Chicago, but 2016 is starting to feel like a long time ago. This version of the Cubs, led by first-title-seeker Craig Counsell, has a chance to carve out its place in the hearts of North Side fans with a deep run this October. When the Cubs have been at their best, they’ve featured an electric offense led by Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and current fan favorite (P-C-A! P-C-A!) Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Tucker headed for free agency, this might be the Cubs’ best shot at matching their 2016 heights with this group. — Doolittle

The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape with the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees all moving on one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.

L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS with the Cubs set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the other.

Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers are headed west to take on the Seattle Mariners, and the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in an AL East duel.

What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining team need to do to move on to the league championship series? Which players could be October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?

ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.

Key links: Mega-preview | Bracket | Schedule

Jump to a matchup:
NYY-TOR | CHC-MIL | DET-SEA | LAD-PHI

ALDS: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Upset forecast: (Blue Jays win 47.4% of simulations.) Forecasts like this spur fundamental questions best left to the ancient Greeks, like, “What is the essence of an upset?” The Blue Jays won the AL East, beat the Yankees in eight of their 13 meetings, and earned a first-round bye and the AL’s top seed. But the Yankees more than doubled the Jays’ run differential. The disconnect between runs and wins can be explained easily: Toronto went 43-30 in games decided by one or two runs; New York was 35-36.

The analytical precept is that non-close games are more telling when it comes to team quality. The Yankees went 33-15 in games decided by five or more runs; the Blue Jays were 25-23. Finally, in terms of run differentials, the Blue Jays were the AL’s second-best home team, behind Texas. But the Yankees were the league’s best road team.

All of this is a long way of saying that Toronto has the higher seed and the home-field advantage, but it is not the favorite in this series.

Blue Jays concern level: Red hot. The Jays’ regular season success sent fan expectations soaring. Could the three-decade title drought be quenched at last? — Doolittle

New York Yankees

What has impressed you most about the Yankees this season?

Their power. The Yankees led baseball with 274 home runs this season. The Dodgers were second with 244. New York had seven players hit at least 20. Anthony Volpe fell one short. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all-time sluggers, but Trent Grisham (34 homers), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), Cody Bellinger (29) and Ben Rice (26) give the Yankees the deepest power bank in the majors. Hitting the ball over the fence has proven key for postseason success in recent years. And the Yankees have been doing it better than everyone else all year.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?

It will continue against the Blue Jays because Blue Jays pitchers recorded the highest home run rate among postseason participants this year. Jose Berrios surrendered 25. Chris Bassitt gave up 22. Kevin Gausman yielded 21. Closer Jeff Hoffman gave up 15 — the second most in baseball among relievers. Bassitt is expected to be available for the ALDS after finishing the season on the injured list, but Berríos is unlikely to appear in the series. In October run-scoring environments, a mistake or two could make the difference.

Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?

The Yankees reached the World Series last year without Judge performing to his MVP-level expectations, causing a stir for another edition of his postseason struggles. But those Yankees had Juan Soto and a red-hot Stanton working their October magic. While the Yankees’ lineup is deeper than a year ago, Judge is the motor. And his career success against Toronto suggests he should have a huge series. Judge has a career .300/.420/.597 slash line with 41 home runs in 133 games against the Blue Jays. This year, he batted .325 with three home runs and a 1.118 OPS in 56 appearances across 13 games. He has crushed Gausman (1.283 OPS in 61 plate appearances), Berríos (1.195 OPS in 44 plate appearances) and Bassitt (.935 OPS in 28 plate appearances) over his career. This, on paper, is an ideal matchup for a two-time AL MVP looking to exorcise October postseason demons. — Castillo

Toronto Blue Jays

What carried the Blue Jays to an October bye?

A propensity to put the ball in play and strong defense. The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate this season was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a club since 2015. Two of the five teams with lower rates — the 2015 Kansas City Royals and 2017 Houston Astros — won the World Series.

Defensively, Toronto ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. In short, it puts pressure on teams to make plays, and it makes the plays themselves. It’s a sound combination for October when every out is crucial.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Yankees?

It won’t continue against the Yankees because stringing together hits in October, when the pitching rises to another level, is difficult. The Blue Jays tied for 11th in the majors with 191 home runs during the regular season — a solid output with George Springer (32) leading the way followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (23), Addison Barger (21) and Daulton Varsho (20). But that pales in comparison to New York. The Yankees blasted 274 homers — 30 more than the second-ranked Dodgers. New York had seven players club at least 20 — and Anthony Volpe fell one short. Power plays in October, and the Yankees have the substantial edge.

Which one player must deliver to put Toronto in the ALCS?

The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million contract to serve as the franchise’s cornerstone for another 14 years. The assignment includes impressing when it matters most. Guerrero is just 3-for-22 with one extra-base hit, two walks and five strikeouts in six career playoff games divided into two-game slices over three postseasons. It’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jays went 0-6 in those games. Guerrero now has a chance to fuel a deep October run after another strong regular season. — Castillo

NLDS: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Upset forecast: (Brewers win 56.2% of simulations) The Hiawatha Series! Yes, we tend to label these geographic rivalries with the interstates that connect them but in this case, let’s go with the Amtrak line that runs back and forth between Milwaukee and Chicago every day.

This is the first postseason edition and the Brewers, who posted baseball’s best record and run differential, are the statistical favorites. But the reasons to pick the Cubs are many: They offset many of Milwaukee’s advantages in speed and defense, and have more power. The Brewers’ pitching staff was better overall but struggled with health down the stretch. The Brewers have youth and the most athletic position group in the majors; the Cubs have more star power, especially if Kyle Tucker gets going.

Upset? The Cubs would be no Cinderella if they knock off Milwaukee, but the good people of Wisconsin would indeed be very upset.

Brewers concern level: Moderate. Losing to the hated Cubs would be a crusher, but this is an unflappable Brewers team, full of the hubris of youth. The clubhouse is upbeat and tightly knit, and this still-overlooked group will be aching to not only dispatch their rivals but also to show the nation why they were baseball’s best during the season. — Doolittle

Chicago Cubs

What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?

The talk going into the series was how the Padres’ bullpen — which was arguably the best in baseball in the regular season — was dominant enough to maybe carry the Padres all the way to the World Series.

The Cubs’ bullpen? It wasn’t really generating a lot of hype.

This group has kind of been reconstructed on the fly throughout the season, but it looks really good right now. The secret weapon is veteran journeyman Brad Keller, who only had three saves in the regular season, but had a terrific year after adding 4 mph to his fastball and is now closing after Daniel Palencia got injured in September and missed a couple of weeks. (He’s back now.)

Why will/won’t it continue against the Brewers?

Why not? The numbers are legit. Keller is throwing 98 and had a 2.07 ERA. Palencia hit 100 mph in his Game 1 appearance. Drew Pomeranz, brought in from the Mariners in April, is a good lefty option who had a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Kittredge got a hold in Game 1, started Game 2 as the opener and got the save in Game 3 after Keller’s sudden control issues. Caleb Thielbar gives them a second good lefty. That’s a strong group that Craig Counsell can mix and match with and provide for a Cubs rotation without rookie Cade Horton, one of the best starters in the majors in the second half.

Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?

The second-half slides of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong received a lot of attention, but Seiya Suzuki‘s own slump was just as important to the Cubs’ offensive struggles in the second half. Suzuki hit .263 with an .867 OPS through the All-Star break but .213 with a .688 OPS after.

Given that Tucker is playing through some injury issues and Crow-Armstrong has struggled to make adjustments after his big first half, the Cubs need Suzuki to deliver and he did that with a big home run in Game 1 against the Padres. — Schoenfield

Milwaukee Brewers

What carried the Brewers to an October bye?

Pitching, defense, speed and timely hitting. Only the Rangers and Padres allowed fewer runs than the Brewers as Milwaukee had a good balance between starting pitching (third in the majors in ERA) and bullpen (sixth in ERA). The Brewers ranked first in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and second in the majors with a .279 average with runners in scoring position — two keys to them finishing third in runs scored despite ranking just 22nd in home runs.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Cubs?

The Brewers weren’t a popular pick to reach the World Series precisely because many believe this formula won’t work as well in the postseason as it did in the regular season. Maybe that’s unfair, but the numbers are clear: You have to hit more home runs than your opponents to win in October. That can still happen for Milwaukee, but the Brewers will likely need some non-home run hitters to step up with some power.

The other concern arose because of a couple key injuries to the pitching staff, with Trevor Megill, the Brewers’ closer most of the season, returning from a lengthy absence and starter Brandon Woodruff battling a lat strain and not pitching since Sept. 17.

Which one player must deliver to put Milwaukee in the NLCS?

Brice Turang could be the guy who proves a surprising source of power. He finished with a solid 18 home runs, but was even better in the second half when he hit .308/.380/.536 with 12 home runs in 63 games. As the production increased, manager Pat Murphy moved Turang into a middle-of-the-order spot in the lineup more often down the stretch. On the other hand, Turang also hit just one home run in his final 23 games. — Schoenfield

ALDS: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners

Upset forecast: (Mariners win 51.6% of simulations) The Mariners’ baseline is slightly better because of their much better finish to the season than Detroit’s woeful ending but over the full 162-game slate, they had only a five-run edge in differential. In other words, if Detroit were to beat Seattle, it would at best be a very mild upset. The Tigers could get two Tarik Skubal starts in the ALDS on normal rest, Game 2 in Seattle and a potential decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. That, as much as anything, makes Detroit a threat to advance to the ALCS. Their late-season swoon was considerable but what we’ve seen over the past week is a Tigers club that has already shaken that off.

Mariners concern level: Historic. Seattle knows it’s facing a tough opponent but they match up well with the Tigers. But when you’ve never been to the World Series, there is a baseline level of concern that is always going to be kind of high. — Doolittle

Detroit Tigers

What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?

Give the Tigers credit for turning the page on their near-catastrophic September that saw them blow the biggest final-month lead in MLB history by beating the team that edged them for the division crown in the wild-card round.

Of course, it helped to have the ultimate momentum changer in Tarik Skubal in Game 1. Skubal’s 14-strikeout performance was a postseason masterpiece and sets up this possibility: Can he pull a Madison Bumgarner circa 2014 and put his team on his back for an entire month?

Why will/won’t it continue against the Mariners?

Here’s the good news for the Tigers: Skubal can start in Game 2 of the ALDS on four days of rest. Then, thanks to two off days, if the series goes five games he can start Game 5 on four days of rest. Skubal started back-to-back games on four days of rest only once all season since he generally worked on five or more days, but that one time turned out just fine: In the second of those starts, he allowed one hit with 13 strikeouts.

So, yes, Skubal’s dominance can continue, but they’ll need others on the staff to step up against a Seattle offense that was the best in baseball in September. The performance against Cleveland was encouraging, but Cleveland’s lineup is not Seattle’s lineup.

Which one player must deliver for them to pull off the upset?

Besides Skubal? Let’s go with a pair here: Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. The Tigers are in the unique position of having arguably the best pitcher on the planet and also not really having a fourth starter, so it’s crucial they get something from at least one of their other two starters in the games Skubal doesn’t pitch. Neither made it through five innings in the wild-card round and Detroit is going to need more length than that to get past Seattle. — Schoenfield

Seattle Mariners

What carried the Mariners to an October bye?

We all know the Mariners can pitch. The problem in recent years has been the offense. This year was different. The Mariners sprinted past the shorthanded Astros in September to win the AL West with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez carrying the offensive surge.

Seattle led the majors in runs scored, home runs and wRC+ in September. They were second in OPS and wOBA. Combined with that potent pitching staff, the Mariners ripped off 11 straight wins and 17 wins in 18 games to comfortably reach the postseason with a bye — and emerge as a trendy pick to reach the World Series.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Tigers?

It will continue against the Tigers because even Skubal struggled to handle the Mariners in their two meetings during the regular season. Skubal didn’t complete six innings in either start, tossing 5⅔ innings in Seattle on April 2 and five innings at home on July 11. He combined to allow seven runs on 10 hits. October is another beast, of course, and Skubal is coming off a historic performance in Cleveland. Even if he is dominant, the Tigers’ pitching staff faces a steep challenge. If he’s not, the Tigers’ chances to advance are very slim.

Which one player must deliver to put Seattle in the ALCS?

Raleigh could end up winning AL MVP, but Rodriguez might be the team’s most important hitter in October. Rodriguez made the All-Star team again this summer, but he was a significantly better hitter post-All-Star break — continuing his trend as a late-season performer. The center fielder led the Mariners in batting average, wRC+, OPS and fWAR in the second half. As the man tasked to protect Raleigh in the lineup, a strong showing from Rodriguez could force pitchers to attack Raleigh — and that’s a tough recipe for success for opposing teams. — Castillo

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Upset forecast: (Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.

This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.

Phillies concern level: Nonexistent. Look, the Phillies know who they are playing. But with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and Jhoan Duran on their side, this is not a team that is going to fret about anything. They will just wait for the adrenaline to flow. — Doolittle

Los Angeles Dodgers

What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?

The Dodgers haven’t really run out their “A” team for most of the season as they babied their starters for much of the season, but now we can see how good this team can be with a healthy rotation. Blake Snell was dominant in the first game until finally tiring in the seventh. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the seasonlong ace for the Dodgers, was solid in Game 2, escaping a bases-loaded no-outs jam in the sixth. The Dodgers were confident enough in those two that they saved Ohtani for what would have been Game 3 — and now is Game 1 of the NLDS. Oh, Ohtani can hit a little, too. Remember, the Dodgers won it all last season with Ohtani having a good-but-not-great postseason at the plate. After his two-homer game in Game 1 this postseason, watch out.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Phillies?

The Dodgers certainly have to love where they are. Ohtani slowly worked his way up to a normal workload and pitched six innings in his final start, throwing 91 pitches. He allowed just one run over his final four appearances and surrendered just three home runs in 47 innings. Thanks to having three potential off days to play five games in this series, Ohtani could start Game 5 on six days of rest.

After his initial one-inning appearances in June, Ohtani was given at least six days off between starts, and his three starts in September came with eight, 10 and six days of rest, and he will have 10 days before his Game 1 NLDS appearance. The Dodgers will worry about the NLCS if they get there.

Which one player must deliver for L.A. to move on?

This is clearly about players, plural — as in relief pitchers. The sketchy Dodgers bullpen didn’t ease the confidence of Dodgers fans — or Dave Roberts — with a poor showing in Game 1 against Cincinnati, when the Dodgers had a 10-2 lead only to see the bullpen start walking everybody and the Reds load the bases and have the tying run on deck. Who Roberts trusts in the highest-leverage situations — and can deliver — remains a question. But there is hope Roki Sasaki can be a part of the answer after his strong showing in Game 2 against the Reds. — Schoenfield

Philadelphia Phillies

What carried the Phillies to an October bye?

The starting rotation and a monster season from Kyle Schwarber. The rotation led the NL in ERA and led the majors — by 51 innings — in innings pitched. Cristopher Sanchez led the way with an absolute monster season of his own — in fact, it was Sanchez, and not Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal, who led the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR. Meanwhile, Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, including setting a major league record with 23 home runs as a left-handed batter against left-handed pitchers.

Will it continue against the Dodgers?

Of course, a large part of that rotation success was Zack Wheeler, but he’s out for the postseason. Ranger Suarez had a terrific season but wasn’t great his final three starts, allowing 12 runs and four home runs in 14⅓ innings. And the fourth starter after Jesus Luzardo is either Aaron Nola, who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence given his 6.01 ERA and mediocre postseason results in his career, or Walker Buehler, who was signed at the end of August after the Red Sox released him. In other words: There are at least some slight concerns here for a rotation that was so good.

As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.

Which one player must deliver to put Philadelphia in the NLCS?

Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield

TORONTO — The New York Yankees touched down in Canada early Friday with some bulletin board material ahead of their American League Division Series showdown against the Toronto Blue Jays.

“Contrary to some thoughts up here, we’re a really good team,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said in a news conference Friday.

Boone was referring to a pointed critique that Blue Jays television color analyst and former major leaguer Buck Martinez offered on the Yankees during a game between the Blue Jays and Houston Astros on Sept 9.

The Yankees had taken two of three games from the Blue Jays the previous weekend, but Martinez was unimpressed.

“The Yankees, they’re not a good team,” Martinez said. “I don’t care what their record is.”

The Yankees went 5-8 against the Blue Jays in the regular season and just 1-6 in Toronto. The head-to-head series proved significant when both clubs finished tied atop the AL East with 94 wins, and the Blue Jays won the division because of the season-series tiebreaker.

“I know Buck had some thoughts,” Boone later added. “That’s all I was responding to. He’s wrong. But it doesn’t matter. We’ve got to go play, and we’ve got to go perform, as everyone does this time of year. We feel really good about our team. We’re playing well. All that’s in the past now. We’ve got to play well moving forward.”

The first move for both clubs was deciding their starting pitcher for Game 1 on Saturday. The Blue Jays chose veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman. The Yankees picked Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, over Will Warren, who will be available out of the bullpen.

Boone said Max Fried will start Game 2 on Sunday.

Gil and Gausman last started in their clubs’ regular-season finales Sept. 28.

Gausman, 34, tallied a 3.59 ERA in 193 innings across 32 starts. He allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 22⅔ innings across four starts against the Yankees.

“He’s the same guy every single day,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “You don’t worry about him getting caught up in the noise and the stuff that goes with a Game 1.”

Gil, 27, missed the first four months of the season because of a lat injury before recording a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts. He faced Toronto on Sept. 9, holding the Blue Jays to one run on three hits over six innings.

“Just feel like he’s ready for this,” Boone said. “He’s in line for it. Decided we want to keep Warren an option in the pen, and we feel like Luis is ready to go.”