MLB Power Rankings: Which NLWC team has the advantage?
There are four power rankings left to go in the 2023 season, and while certain teams — such as the Braves — have cemented their position in the standings and on our list, many clubs remain in flux.
That is especially true for the four teams vying for the final wild-card spot in the National League — the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins and Giants. They’ve continued to move around and swap places in the wild-card standings, as all four are within a couple games of each other — and all boast negative run differentials.
Which of them has the advantage — and who will secure a postseason berth?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 22 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 90-48
Previous ranking: 1
The Braves took three of four from the Dodgers with Ronald Acuna Jr. making an MVP statement in his head-to-head matchup against Mookie Betts by homering in each of the first three games — all Atlanta victories. His home run on Saturday was a 121.2-mph blast to center field, the hardest-hit home run of 2023 and only the fourth homer of the Statcast era clocked at 120 mph. The others came from Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Acuna became the first player ever with 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases, leads the NL in runs, stolen bases and total bases and is tied for first in hits and on-base percentage. — Schoenfield
Record: 88-51
Previous ranking: 3
As the Orioles prepare for a possible — or even likely — postseason without star closer Felix Bautista, they’ve been collecting and probing different bullpen configurations. Hard-throwing lefty D.L. Hall, developed as a starter, was used in back-to-back outings and had a save opportunity against the Angels, which he failed to convert. His plus-stuff plays up in the role and his initial strikeout rates have been dominant. Alas, the command has not been.
Meanwhile, Shintaro Fujinami came out of the bullpen throwing triple digits and earned the save against the Angels after the Orioles went ahead in extra innings. Baltimore also reacquired Jorge Lopez, and while Yennier Cano is the Bautista replacement — and a good one — his ascension to the ninth inning scrambles a high-leverage picture that manager Brandon Hyde will have to sort out over the next few weeks while trying to nail down the American League East crown. It’s a challenge. — Doolittle
Record: 84-54
Previous ranking: 2
This is an issue that carries importance far beyond sports, but we’ll stick to the baseball portion for the purpose of these Power Rankings: The Dodgers probably won’t see Julio Urias again this season, in the wake of him being arrested on felony domestic violence charges Sunday night. They’ve already lost Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin for the year, and Clayton Kershaw is pitching through shoulder woes, which resulted in diminished velocity during his Tuesday start from Miami. The Dodgers are cruising toward their 10th division title in 11 years and might still reach 100 wins for the third straight season. But they have a major starting-pitching problem heading into October. And Walker Buehler won’t be stretched out enough to help much. — Gonzalez
Record: 85-55
Previous ranking: 4
Reports emerged last week that the red-hot Rays were going with Taylor Walls as their primary shortstop for the rest of the campaign, with Osleivis Basabe moving into more of a utility role. Walls has more of a big league track record than Basabe, and at the very least, Tampa Bay can count on elite defense from Walls.
Over his first 134 games as a big league shortstop, Walls posted plus-23 defensive runs saved, which is a Gold Glove trajectory. His offense lags well behind his glove, but he does have strengths. Namely, he walks (65 free passes per 162 games in his career) and steals bases (20 thefts per 162 games). Still, he’s a career sub-.200 hitter and any offense he generates will have to be viewed as gravy. Luckily, with the Rays’ offense rolling as it has, they can afford to go all-in with Walls’ glove at shortstop and with Basabe still around, they can pinch hit for Walls in a key spot. — Doolittle
Record: 80-61
Previous ranking: 6
The Astros began their crucial series at Texas by clubbing the Rangers into submission, scoring 27 runs over two games. While we’ve become accustomed to this sort of offensive outburst by the Astros over the years, this barrage was notable not just because it came in a big series against a rival, but because it happened on the road and on the heels of a home sweep at the hands of the Yankees. This continues a head-scratching, season-long trend of Houston hitting much better away from Minute Maid Park. Houston had scored nearly 100 more runs away from home, along with road-home splits of 113-78 home runs and .794-.734 OPS. That probably doesn’t mean that the Astros should angle to play on the road as much as possible in October, but it is a trend worth noting. — Doolittle
Record: 78-61
Previous ranking: 5
The 10-game road trip to New York, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay started off disastrously with series losses to the Mets and Reds. Suddenly, the pitching staff is looking fatigued. Bryan Woo‘s velocity was way down in his start against the Reds and given his large platoon splits (lefties have hammered him), the Mariners may need to consider an opener in his next game (they don’t really have any good other starting options). Woo is way past his season high in innings in either college or last year in the minors. Bryce Miller‘s strikeout rate has plummeted over the past month. Closer Andres Munoz was AL Reliever of the Month in August but has struggling in September. Justin Topa blew a 6-3 lead on Tuesday. Can the staff make it through September without collapsing? — Schoenfield
Record: 76-63
Previous ranking: 7
Nathan Eovaldi‘s return from injury was nothing short of a disaster. He lasted just 1⅓ innings Tuesday against the Astros, giving up four runs on five hits including two home runs. The formerly dominant Dane Dunning didn’t fare much better in relief as the Rangers are suddenly in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. Their pitching staff needs to right the ship after a brutal week — they ranked last in ERA over the past seven days and will need Eovaldi to lock in as soon as possible. The Blue Jays, Mariners and Red Sox all remain on their schedule — including Seattle seven times before the end of the season. Those head-to-head matchups will likely determine the Rangers’ fate in October, which seemed like a lock for most of the season. That’s no longer the case. — Rogers
Record: 77-63
Previous ranking: 10
The Blue Jays’ position group is beat up right now. Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman and Danny Jansen have all landed on the injured list, while Brandon Belt is dealing with a balky back. The timing isn’t good, but on the field Toronto has been able to tread water. Because of that and a concurrent collapse by the Rangers, the Blue Jays managed to move back into playoff position the day after Labor Day. We highlighted the boost provided by Davis Schneider last week, but the Blue Jays have gotten key production from another unsung replacement since then. This time, it’s Spencer Horwitz, a 25-year-old lefty hitting DH/first baseman. Over his first seven games, Horwitz homered, drove in four runs and posted a .961 OPS. — Doolittle
Record: 77-62
Previous ranking: 9
Brandon Woodruff appears to be all the way back and ready for October. He threw seven shutout innings Tuesday in the Brewers’ win over Pittsburgh. In five of his six starts since coming back from his injury, Woodruff has given up two or fewer runs. He has 25 strikeouts in his past three outings alone, further proof his stuff is rounding into form. His fastball velocity is already in the top 20% in the league and it’s still climbing. Milwaukee’s playoff hopes rely on him, along with Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes, as the team’s offense has been inconsistent. — Rogers
Record: 77-62
Previous ranking: 8
Trea Turner headed off on paternity leave riding a 15-game hitting streak during which he hit .358, slugged 10 home runs and scored 19 runs. Going back to that standing ovation he received in early August, Turner has hit .362/.395/.767 with 12 home runs in 28 games. That pushed his OPS+ over league average to 106 and while that’s still well below the 139 mark he posted from 2020 to 2022, he has at least rescued his season from those miserable first four months. A hot Turner heading into the postseason bodes well for another deep run for the Phillies. — Schoenfield
Record: 76-64
Previous ranking: 11
Justin Steele‘s Cy Young bid took another step forward as he pitched a gem on Labor Day, shutting out the Giants over eight innings. He’s 16-3 with a 2.55 ERA, doing it mostly with a four-seam fastball and slider. His ability to work both sides of the plate and change the eye level for opposing hitters has been nothing short of fantastic. Steele’s 2023 resume doesn’t feature the strikeout totals Spencer Strider is putting up, but he has kept the ball in the park much better. Steele leads the league in home runs per nine innings (0.7) as well as ERA+ (177). That could give him the edge over Strider and Blake Snell. — Rogers
Record: 73-67
Previous ranking: 13
Since we’ve pointed out so many times this season that the Twins have failed to put a hammerlock on an AL Central division that has been begging for someone to take control, we probably ought to highlight that the Twins now appear to have put a hammerlock on the AL Central. This has happened mostly because of an offensive outburst in two series apiece against Texas and Cleveland. Over an 11-game stretch beginning Aug. 24, the Twins averaged 6.9 runs per game, second-best in the majors during that span. Tuesday’s 8-3 win over Cleveland pushed the Twins’ lead over the Guardians to seven games, their biggest margin of the season. Minnesota finally looks like a lock for an October invite. — Doolittle
Record: 72-68
Previous ranking: 15
Boston’s tepid approach to the trade deadline has not done much to inspire a fast finish. The Red Sox have hovered around .500 with their post-deadline play as their postseason chances have collapsed from around one-in-five to about one-in-50. The pitching has been a mess even though the performance of rookie Brayan Bello has held up and Chris Sale has flashed dominance at times. James Paxton and Kutter Crawford have fallen off. And that’s just the rotation. The bullpen ERA since the deadline is one of the worst in the majors. Patience in the Red Sox’s ongoing passive approach is surely growing thin. — Doolittle
Record: 72-68
Previous ranking: 12
The D-backs have an important stretch coming up, with nine of their next 13 games coming against either the Cubs or the Giants, two teams joining them amid the crowded NL wild-card field. But the D-backs need to worry about getting right themselves. They followed a disappointing 8-16 month of July with a 12-15 August and have split their first six games of September. Since the All-Star break, they rank 21st in the majors in runs per game and 26th in ERA. That’s a pretty long stretch of time to be below average. But all that matters is the next 3½ weeks. — Gonzalez
Record: 73-69
Previous ranking: 16
The additions of Harrison Bader and Hunter Renfroe provided immediate dividends as Renfroe walked off the Cubs over the weekend. Cincinnati could have also used the pitchers who were placed on waivers, but Cleveland grabbed them instead. That left the Reds with one chance to make the postseason: by slugging their way there. But as good as their young hitters have been this season, they’ve slumped in the second half. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom five of the majors in OPS since the All-Star break. Its on-base percentage has hovered around .300 during that time frame. After playing the Mariners this week, the Reds have a light schedule the rest of the way. If the offense picks up, they still have a shot at the postseason. — Rogers
Record: 72-67
Previous ranking: 17
The Marlins looked dead in the wild-card race until they swept four games from the Nationals. The offense, which had scored just 17 runs in the previous 10 games, burst out with 31 against Washington while hitting .321 with eight home runs. Luis Arraez went 10-for-18, Bryan De La Cruz had a four-hit game, Jesus Sanchez had seven hits and Jazz Chisholm Jr. had six. They did it without Jorge Soler, who missed the entire series before returning in Tuesday’s win over the Dodgers. Of the four teams battling for the final wild-card spot, the Marlins have the toughest remaining schedule, including the upcoming road trip to Philadelphia and Milwaukee. — Schoenfield
Record: 70-70
Previous ranking: 14
Logan Webb produced another quality start against the Cubs on Monday, getting charged with three earned runs in 6⅔ innings. But the Giants’ offense didn’t produce much of anything in support of him, and so he was tagged with the loss. It was an all-too-familiar scenario. Webb has the lowest run-support average in the major leagues, and the Giants’ recent struggles on offense are costing them a prime opportunity to gain ground in a crowded wild-card field. From Aug. 5 through Monday’s game, the Giants navigated a 28-game stretch in which they slashed a paltry .219/.293/.327 as a team, accumulating only 20 home runs. — Gonzalez
Record: 70-69
Previous ranking: 19
When all is said and done, the Yankees aren’t going to get credit for much of anything based on their 2023 performance. But you can at least say this much: Those on the field as the season reached the Labor Day turn have not thrown in the towel. With the Yankees promoting a gaggle of young players for the remainder of the season, the result has been one that sometimes happens with clubs that go through an in-season teardown: The youth, energy and motivation of the replacements makes the team better. The Yankees looked dispirited a week ago but after they swept the Astros on the road and Jasson Dominguez made a strong early impression, New York’s string of .500 seasons might yet remain intact. — Doolittle
Record: 66-75
Previous ranking: 18
In the wake of Shohei Ohtani‘s torn UCL — not to mention the possibility of Julio Urias facing his second domestic violence-related suspension by the league — Snell stands as the most coveted starting pitcher in the upcoming free agent class. And he has picked a perfect time to be at his best. Snell is 12-9 with a major league-leading 2.50 ERA heading into his 29th start of the season Friday, striking out 201 batters in 155 innings. Nobody has issued more walks or served up more wild pitches than Snell, but nobody has allowed a lower opponents’ slugging percentage, either. The Padres are running out of time to make a final playoff push — especially with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish on the IL — but Snell is trending toward his second Cy Young. — Gonzalez
Record: 67-73
Previous ranking: 20
Probably needing a sweep of the three-game series against the Twins to have a chance at the AL Central title, Cleveland lost the opener 20-6. Backup catcher David Fry ended up pitching the final four innings, giving up 10 hits, 7 runs and 3 home runs. He became the first true position player to pitch four innings in a game since Jose Oquendo of the Cardinals on May 14, 1988. Tuesday didn’t go much better, as Trevor Stephan gave up five runs in the eighth inning in an 8-3 loss — dropping the Guardians seven games behind the Twins. — Schoenfield
Record: 64-76
Previous ranking: 22
Shohei Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo of CAA, addressed the media from his field-level suite at Angel Stadium on Monday afternoon, emphasizing that Ohtani plans to continue to be a two-way player. Meanwhile, Ohtani himself took a rare opportunity for outdoor batting practice and wound up tweaking his right oblique, prompting him to be a late scratch from Monday’s lineup and also sit out Tuesday’s game. Before then, Ohtani had played in every game since May 2.
But Angels manager Phil Nevin said Ohtani avoided a strain and isn’t expected to go on the IL. He will keep playing, at least until he decides the next course of action for his UCL tear. The Angels are out of contention and the AL MVP award has basically been locked up, but Ohtani doesn’t want to stop. “This guy loves the game,” Balelo said. — Gonzalez
Record: 64-75
Previous ranking: 23
The Mets called up top prospect Ronny Mauricio and he went 6-for-15 (.400) in his first four games. His first career hit Friday was a 117-mph double to right field. With Francisco Lindor entrenched at shortstop, Mauricio started at second base all four games, although manager Buck Showalter said he would use Mauricio at different positions (he also played some left field at Syracuse). Tuesday’s lineup featured rookies Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Mauricio all starting together for the first time — and they all had hits in an 11-5 victory over the Nationals. — Schoenfield
Record: 63-76
Previous ranking: 24
The Tigers placed Riley Greene on the IL because of inflammation in his elbow, an injury suffered on a highlight reel catch that, if it proves to be the last we see of Greene in 2023, is a pretty nice exclamation point on a fine second season for the 22-year-old. In almost the exact same number of plate appearances as his rookie season, he has upped his OPS+ from 97 to 116 while improving in all three slash categories. His homer rate more than doubled even as his line drive rate improved markedly. Simply put, Greene hit the ball harder more often. He still has work to do to polish off his strike zone indicators, but any doubt that may have existed about whether he is a cornerstone player for the Tigers has been erased. — Doolittle
Record: 63-77
Previous ranking: 21
CJ Abrams‘ season has sort of flown under the radar, in part because he got off to a slow start, but his power is starting to develop — he’s up to 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases (and has been caught just three times). There is still room for growth, especially in his swing decisions that lead to a high chase rate and low walk rate. He has also struggled big time against lefties, hitting just .173 with a .255 OBP, but that isn’t necessarily unusual for a young left-handed hitter (especially given his lack of experience in the minors). It looks like the bat will eventually play with continued maturity. We’ll also see if he stays at shortstop long-term. Statcast metrics aren’t a fan of his range, putting him near the bottom of all shortstops, although DRS has him above average. — Schoenfield
Record: 65-75
Previous ranking: 25
It has been a lost season for Oneil Cruz, but if he can get back onto the field for even a few games after recovering from ankle surgery, it could set him up for 2024. Cruz has been a missing element for Pittsburgh all year as his replacements haven’t exactly gone off. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in the NL in WAR at shortstop as just one of two teams with a negative rating. If healthy, the 2024 left-side pairing of Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes could be an offensive and defensive force for the Pirates. That’s the potential bright spot. Their pitching staff still needs work. — Rogers
Record: 61-78
Previous ranking: 26
The Cardinals might be playing out the string, but Jordan Walker is still getting after it. He went 12-for-19 in his last five games with four home runs. Walker has had his share of ups and downs, but his rookie numbers are going to look pretty good. He has an OPS over 1.100 since mid-August, and he’s one reason St. Louis doesn’t need a full-on rebuild. If the Cardinals focus all their efforts on the mound this offseason, there’s a chance they could be back in the playoff race in 2024. They aren’t far off from being good again, but that’s only if they address the starting staff in a major way. — Rogers
Record: 54-86
Previous ranking: 27
Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for the White Sox, they did. A home sweep to the Tigers was bad enough but a Labor Day beatdown at the hands of the lowly Royals was really embarrassing. Manager Pedro Grifol seems to be safe, but some may question why considering the disaster this season has been. His benching of newcomer Korey Lee — after the rookie couldn’t track a popup he hit — was puzzling. It feels like Grifol wants a do-over first impression, but those only come once. Meanwhile, Jesse Scholtens‘ bid for a rotation spot in 2024 took a hit after he gave up nine hits in 3⅔ innings to Kansas City on Monday. — Rogers
Record: 51-88
Previous ranking: 28
Kris Bryant told reporters recently that he’s hopeful he’ll return from his fractured left index finger by the start of the Rockies’ homestand next week, which features matchups against his two former teams, the Cubs and Giants. The Rockies have long been out of contention, of course, and are still trending toward their first 100-loss season in franchise history. But getting back before the end of the year will no doubt be beneficial for Bryant. By Monday, he will have played in only 107 of the Rockies’ 304 games since signing a seven-year, $182 million contract in March of 2022. He’s slashing only .251/.338/.379 in 65 games this season. — Gonzalez
Record: 44-97
Previous ranking: 29
As Cole Ragans continues to roll along, Zack Greinke does not. The future Hall of Famer dropped to 1-14 with a 5.34 ERA. He hasn’t reached 80 pitches in any of his past seven starts, as manager Matt Quatraro gives him shorter and shorter hooks. Only 12 other pitchers have won just one game with at least 14 losses — and four of those did it in the 1800s. It has happened two other times this century, however, as Homer Bailey went 1-14 with the Reds in 2018 and Adam Bernero went 1-14 with the Rockies and Tigers in 2003. — Schoenfield
Record: 43-97
Previous ranking: 30
Amid a year of extreme disappointment — both on the field of play and, of course, beyond it — a rookie second baseman has provided a glimmer of hope for the team’s future, wherever it might reside. Zack Gelof, the team’s second-round pick in 2021, slashed .275/.335/.533 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases through his first 200 plate appearances in the major leagues. He’s the only member of the A’s with both double-digit home runs and steals, even though he has been up only since the middle of July. The sample size is still relatively small, but Gelof has shown to be a more advanced hitter than many anticipated. — Gonzalez
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Bill Connelly
The penultimate week of the college football regular season gave us plenty of entertainment. We got an incredible comeback in Salt Lake City, we got some resounding blowouts, we got a late Heisman push from Diego Pavia and we got the best ending of the season at the Division II level.
We didn’t really get much change, however. No team in the top 14 of the College Football Playoff rankings lost, and of the 16 ranked teams that won, 15 won by double digits and 10 won by at least 20. The ACC gave us more chaos thanks to Georgia Tech’s no-show against Pitt, but it was a rather chaos-free weekend overall.
Luckily, Rivalry Week is on the way, and it usually delivers. We can still squeeze a little bit of chaos out of the 2025 season, so let’s review Week 13 by looking ahead to Week 14. What do we have in store for college football’s best weekend?
For each category below, games are listed in chronological order. All times Eastern.
At-large playoff bids
One thing about all the top teams winning this weekend is: The playoff picture remains extremely unsettled. As a general heuristic, I tend to think of any two-loss SEC or Big Ten team or any one-loss Big 12 or ACC team as safely in the field. But with two weeks remaining, we have more of those teams than we have playoff slots: There are six SEC teams and four Big Ten teams with two or fewer losses, plus two Big 12 teams with one loss. Someone deserving is currently on the outside looking in.
Rivalry Week could alter that picture, of course, though with each of the current top 13 in the CFP rankings favored — 10 by double-digits — that’s not a guarantee.
Friday
No. 6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 13.9 (82% win probability)
No. 12 Utah at Kansas (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 (83%)
No. 4 Georgia at No. 16 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 (79%)
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (Friday, 7:30 p.m., NBC) — SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 (98%)
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 (63%)
Six potential at-large teams play Friday, though Indiana, A&M and Georgia are virtually assured of playoff bids at this point. We’ve seen some pundits attempting to will a “The committee might leave Ole Miss out if Lane Kiffin is leaving!” narrative into existence. While I think this is preposterous on its face — Kiffin isn’t the one making the plays for a 10-1 team, and if the committee indeed chose to downgrade the Rebels because of that, we need to tear down the entire committee structure and go back to a formula* — I don’t think the Rebels want to find out what happens if they lose and most of the teams directly below them win.
(* We should go back to a formula anyway, but that’s neither here nor there.)
Utah just barely kept hope alive Saturday. With Joe Jackson and the Kansas State run game playing at an unstoppable level, the Utes gave up points on five straight first-half possessions to fall behind 31-21 at halftime. They responded with a 14-0 burst, but K-State responded with a 16-0 run to seize total control. Jackson’s 24-yard score seemed to put the game almost out of reach, but Tao Johnson returned a 2-point pass 100 yards to make it 47-37.
We were only getting started. Devon Dampier found Larry Simmons for a 20-yard score with 2:47 left, and after a K-State three-and-out (the Wildcats’ first since the first drive of the game), Dampier raced 59 yards on fourth-and-1 to set up his own go-ahead touchdown with 56 seconds remaining. Lander Barton sealed the comeback with an interception.
Saturday
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan (noon, Fox) — SP+ projection: OSU by 14.6 (82%)
No. 13 Miami at Pitt (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 (65%)
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 (98%)
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 (88%)
No. 7 Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: Oregon by 6.7 (66%)
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 (77%)
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UT by 0.7 (52%)
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC) – SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 (65%)
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 (98%)
In a different year, Texas and Michigan could both be in “Pull a Rivalry Week upset, and you’re in” situations. Thanks to Georgia Tech and USC losing, the Longhorns and Wolverines could rank 15th and 16th, respectively, when the new CFP rankings come out Tuesday. That would put them in range, but if Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and if BYU and Notre Dame win blowouts as expected, there just might not be space in the inn.
There are two different ways to root for playoff chaos, I guess. On one hand, you could root for lots of upsets and general nonsense, which is where I tend to lean. That means Go Mississippi State! Go Georgia Tech! Go Michigan! Go Pitt! Et cetera. But upsets might actually clarify the picture a bit in the end, so the other chaos route involves rooting for whatever gives the committee the biggest possible headache. That means Michigan and Texas both pulling upsets, Vanderbilt toppling Tennessee and maybe Ole Miss falling, but chalk winning out otherwise.
Group of 5 playoff bid
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 (93% win probability)
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 (91%)
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 (98%)
Barring extreme chaos — which might open the door for the Mountain West champ — we’re pretty much locked into a two-team battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot: James Madison vs. the American Conference champ. We’re exceedingly likely to get a Tulane-North Texas battle for the American title in two weeks, and while it’s hard to say how the rankings might play out (since the committee has only deigned to rank Tulane at the moment, and barely at that), it appears these three teams have a greater than 95% chance among them to make the playoff.
While North Texas put up absurd numbers Saturday against Rice, and Tulane pulled away late against Temple, JMU played with fire against a feisty Washington State team. The Cougars nearly upset two potential playoff teams in recent weeks (Ole Miss, Virginia), and they led JMU until Wayne Knight’s 58-yard burst up the middle with 6:24 left gave the Dukes a 24-20 win. One would think the committee would rank JMU this week, but I’d have ranked them a month ago, so who knows?
Conference title races
SEC
Four teams still have a shot at the SEC title, and their games are all listed in the CFP section above.
• Texas A&M is in the SEC championship game with a win over Texas, but if the Aggies lose they’re probably out unless both Bama and Ole Miss lose.
• Alabama is most likely in with a win over Auburn since the Tide boast a win over Georgia and, in a multiway tie that depends on the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker, they should have the advantage.
• Georgia is in the clubhouse at 7-1 in SEC play and would win tiebreakers against Ole Miss (because of a head-to-head win) and, if Texas A&M loses, the Aggies (because of the Dawgs’ record against common opponents). But if A&M and Bama both win as favorites (there’s a 41% chance of that, per SP+), the Dawgs are out. I doubt they would mind much.
• Ole Miss probably needs a win plus Bama and A&M losses. (I say “probably” because we still don’t know for sure how the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker will play out. Giant superconferences can get really messy.)
Big Ten
We probably know what we’re getting in the Big Ten, but it would take only one upset to throw things for a loop. Indiana is unbeaten and needs only to beat Purdue to clinch its first trip to Indianapolis (for a football game, anyway), and since there’s a 98% chance of that happening, that tamps down hopes for major chaos. But if Michigan upsets Ohio State, that likely puts Oregon in if the Ducks win at Washington. If we get double upsets in Ann Arbor and Seattle, however, that puts Michigan in.
There’s an 80% chance of both Indiana and Ohio State winning, per SP+, but Oregon and Michigan both kept hopes alive by taking care of business Saturday. Michigan took a 14-point lead over Maryland early in the second quarter, traded blows with the Terrapins for a little while, then laid the hammer down in a 45-20 win.
Oregon, meanwhile, had to work 60 full minutes against No. 15 USC but got the job done in mature fashion. USC cut the Ducks’ lead to 35-27 early in the fourth quarter, but Oregon responded with an 11-play, nearly six-minute drive to go back up 15. It was a dreadfully penalty-heavy affair — the teams combined for 231 rushing yards and 233 penalty yards — but Oregon was never in serious danger. That all but locked up the Ducks’ playoff bid, but it probably won’t earn them a shot at repeating as Big Ten champions.
Big 12
Arizona at No. 25 Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m., Fox) — SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 (60% win probability)
As with the Big Ten, we probably know what we’re getting in the Big 12 championship game: a BYU-Texas Tech rematch. There’s an 86% chance both BYU and Tech win this coming weekend, per SP+, and if they do, they’re in. If they don’t, however, the Territorial Cup and the Utah-Kansas game above could both play a role.
If Arizona State beats Arizona — an upset, according to SP+ — the Sun Devils could get back to Jerry World to defend its title if Kansas upsets Utah and either BYU or Texas Tech also loses. Utah, meanwhile, needs a win, wins by BYU and Arizona State and a massive upset loss for Texas Tech. Neither of these scenarios are likely, and we’re basically looking at a 98.8% chance that either Tech or BYU wins the conference crown. But true chaos lovers know that if there’s a 98.8% chance that something happens, there’s a 1.2% chance that it doesn’t!
ACC
In addition to Miami-Pitt above, three more games will play huge roles in sorting out an incredible ACC mess.
Wake Forest at Duke (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ACCN) – SP+ projection: Duke by 0.4 (51% win probability)
Virginia Tech at No. 19 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 (92%)
SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2) – SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 (85%)
Pitt remains as antisocial as its coach. A week after falling out of the CFP rankings because of a blowout loss to Notre Dame, Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers went down to Atlanta and rolled over Georgia Tech, all but eliminating the Yellow Jackets from ACC contention. Pitt led 28-0 just 19 minutes in, and while Tech was able to close to within 35-28 with 4:51 left after an offensive burst and a cataclysmic fake punt by Pitt, the Panthers clinched the win with a 56-yard touchdown run by freshman Ja’Kyrian Turner. (Subbing in for the injured Desmond Reid, Turner rushed for 201 yards against Tech’s dreadful defense.)
Now we have three 6-1 teams (Virginia, Pitt and SMU), two of which came into this weekend unranked, followed by 6-2 Georgia Tech and 5-2 Miami and Duke. If all three of the 6-1 teams win, Virginia and SMU will play for the ACC title because Pitt has the inferior record against common opponents. And obviously if only two of the three 6-1 teams win, we know who’s in.
But since when has the orderly thing happened in this conference? Just know that tiebreakers like “conference opponent win percentage” (which could be very close) and “higher SportSource Analytics team rating” could come into play. And with games in all three primary windows Saturday, this could take all day (and into early Sunday) to straighten out. Hell yeah, let’s get weird.
American
Navy at Memphis (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 (76% win probability)
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: ECU by 11.1 (76%)
Rice at South Florida (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USF by 27.3 (96%)
Per SP+, there’s a 91% chance that both Tulane and North Texas will win Saturday, and if they do, they’ll play in the American title game. But at 6-1 in the conference, Navy could pounce if either suffers a shocking upset. And if Navy also falls as an underdog at Memphis, the door might open back up for USF or East Carolina. And a blend of computer rankings (including SP+) could end up involved. But again, we have a better than 90% chance of order.
Sun Belt
Troy at Southern Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 (56% win probability)
This one is straightforward: James Madison has clinched the Sun Belt East, while the winner of Troy-Southern Miss will represent the West as a hefty underdog against the Dukes.
Mountain West
San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 (62% win probability)
Boise State at Utah State (Friday, 4 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: BSU by 3.5 (59%)
UNLV at Nevada (Saturday, 9 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 (84%)
This one is straightforward at first: We have one team at 6-1 (San Diego State) and three at 5-2 (Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico). If SDSU beats New Mexico, then Boise State holds the tiebreaker over UNLV and would be in with a win; if the Broncos lose, UNLV is in with a win.
However, a New Mexico upset and a large tie at 6-2 could send us screaming toward the “blended computer rankings (not including SP+ this time)” tiebreaker. Algorithms could get their moment in the sun in the G5.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 (59% win probability)
Kennesaw State at Liberty (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: KSU by 4.0 (60%)
Convenient: We have a three-way tie at 6-1 with Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky, and WKU and JSU play each other, so the winner is guaranteed a spot. If KSU wins, the Owls will play the WKU-JSU winner for the title. Easy peasy. But if the Owls lose, it could come down to either Jacksonville State’s head-to-head win over Kennesaw (if the Gamecocks lose to WKU) or, say it with me now, “blended computer rankings” if WKU loses to JSU.
MAC
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: WMU by 8.6% (70% win probability)
Ohio at Buffalo (Friday, noon, ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Ohio by 2.9 (57%)
Toledo at Central Michigan (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 (74%)
Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, noon, CBSSN) — SP+ projection: Miami by 20.3 (90%)
By Wednesday morning, we’ll know if this race is messy or super messy. At 6-1, WMU is in with a Tuesday win over EMU. But there’s a four-way tie between CMU, Miami, Ohio and Toledo at 5-2. Most big-group tiebreakers seem to favor WMU and Miami, though Toledo’s head-to-head win over Miami could also come in handy.
Bowl eligibility
There are 21 5-6 teams in action this weekend, plus 5-5 Army, needing wins to ensure bowl eligibility. (Technically one of the 5-6 teams, Delaware, is ineligible for a bowl, but the Blue Hens would get one with a win if there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill all the slots.)
Based on SP+ projections, about 10 of them will win. Quite a few are listed above — Auburn (vs. Bama), Buffalo (vs. Ohio), Kansas (vs. Utah), Mississippi State (at Ole Miss), Rice (at USF), Temple (at North Texas), UCF (at BYU) — but we have loads more to follow, including a trio of “the winner bowls” matchups between 5-6 teams Saturday afternoon.
The winner bowls
5-6 Georgia Southern at 5-6 Marshall (Saturday, 1:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Marshall by 10.2 (74% win probability)
5-6 Arkansas State at 5-6 Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: App State by 1.8 (54%)
5-6 Penn State at 5-6 Rutgers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN) — SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 (82%)
Penn State has played very well under interim head coach Terry Smith, enough to build at least a little bit of “Maybe just hire Terry?” buzz. The Nittany Lions manhandled Nebraska 37-10 on Saturday — with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combining for 204 rushing yards and four touchdowns, just like the good old days — to get within one game of .500. It would be a shock if they suffered a letdown against Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights do still have a decent offense. (Defense, not so much.)
Other 5-6 teams
5-6 Kentucky at Louisville (Saturday, noon, ACCN) — SP+ projection: Louisville by 7.1 (67% win probability)
Houston at 5-6 Baylor (Saturday, noon, TNT) — SP+ projection: UH by 3.4 (42%)
Colorado at 5-6 Kansas State (Saturday, noon, FS1) — SP+ projection: K-State by 15.4 (83%)
UTEP at 5-6 Delaware (Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Delaware by 5.0 (62%)
Louisiana-Monroe at 5-6 Louisiana (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UL by 15.6 (84%)
South Alabama at 5-6 Texas State (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: TXST by 11.4 (76%)
5-5 Army at UTSA (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UTSA by 7.3 (68%)
5-6 Florida State at Florida (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: FSU by 7.1 (67%)
Oregon State at 5-6 Washington State (Saturday, 6:30 p.m., The CW) — SP+ projection: Wazzu by 16.6 (85%)
I usually find myself rooting for the 5-6 team in these types of games, but I’ll be rooting particularly hard for Kansas State (because the Wildcats really have rallied to play mostly decent ball down the stretch), Texas State (because the Bobcats are impossibly entertaining and dropped a series of midseason heartbreakers), and Washington State (because it played incredibly well in three trips east but fell to Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison by one-score margins).
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
North Texas: up 4.0 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 24th to 18th)
UNLV: up 3.6 points (from 64th to 54th)
Wake Forest: up 3.5 points (from 63rd to 52nd)
South Florida: up 3.2 points (from 38th to 28th)
Vanderbilt: up 3.2 points (from 18th to 13th)
With maybe the most video-game-like offensive display I’ve seen, North Texas placed two players on the Heisman of the Week list below and rose into the SP+ top 20. (That’s higher than Boise State ranked ahead of last year’s CFP, by the way. James Madison is in the top 30, too.) Vandy’s ridiculously dominant performance against Kentucky earned the Commodores a late rise as well.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Florida: down 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 50th to 69th)
Syracuse: down 4.5 points (from 101st to 118th)
UCLA: down 3.9 points (from 85th to 101st)
Colorado: down 3.3 points (from 78th to 96th)
Illinois: down 3.2 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
I guess the surprise here is that someone fell further than Syracuse. At 69th overall, this is officially Florida’s worst team since 1979, when the Gators went 0-10-1 in Charley Pell’s first season. If you’re going to struggle, I guess you might as well struggle at a historic level.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). And with just two weeks remaining in the race, we have ourselves a new leader.
0:57
Highlight: Diego Pavia sets Vandy record with 484 passing yards in win over UK
Pavia accounts for 532 total yards and six total touchdowns as the No. 14 Commodores blow out the Wildcats in Nashville, 45-17.
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (33-for-39 passing for 484 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Kentucky).
2. Arch Manning, Texas (18-for-30 passing for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown against Arkansas).
3. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (19-for-23 passing for 469 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Rice).
4. Joe Jackson, Kansas State (24 carries for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 19 receiving yards against Utah).
5. Raleek Brown, Arizona State (22 carries for 255 yards and a touchdown, plus 33 receiving yards and a TD against Colorado).
6. LJ Martin, BYU (32 carries for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 44 receiving yards against Cincinnati).
7. Wyatt Young, North Texas (8 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns against Rice).
8. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (16-for-20 passing for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 82 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Coastal Carolina).
9. Ja’Kyrian Turner, Pitt (21 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
10. Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (14 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble against Kent State).
What a week for enormous performances. Any of the top seven guys here might have finished first in some other week. When I was watching Wyatt Young break what felt like 17 tackles on his way to an 84-yard touchdown against Rice, I thought he might take the top spot. He ended up seventh.
In the end, I didn’t have any doubt about the No. 1 spot. The biggest story for Vanderbilt against Kentucky was that its defense showed up for the first time in a few weeks — a very welcome sight with Tennessee on deck in a potential win-and-in game — but Diego Pavia was absolutely ridiculous as well. In his past three games, he has thrown for 1,226 yards (408.7 per game!) with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Three straight iffy performances in October threw him off the Heisman path a bit, but as you’ll see below, his November work has put him a nose in front in the points race, at least.
Honorable mention:
• Carson Beck, Miami (27-for-32 passing for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns against Virginia Tech).
• Devon Dampier, Utah (18-for-33 passing for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 110 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Kansas State).
• Joe Fagnano, UConn (33-for-46 passing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-37 passing for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Louisville).
• Amari Odom, Kennesaw State (24-for-34 passing for 387 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 52 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Missouri State).
• Darryl Peterson, Wisconsin (6 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 pass breakups against Illinois).
• Dominic Richardson, Tulsa (28 carries for 203 yards and a touchdown, plus 22 receiving yards against Army).
• Jalen Stroman, Notre Dame (eight tackles, two TFLs and a pick-six against Syracuse).
Joe Fagnano threw for 446 yards, and I couldn’t even squeeze him in the top 10!
Through 13 weeks, here are your points leaders. (Points over the past four weeks is the tiebreaker):
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (34 points)
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (29 points, 13 in the past four weeks)
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points, zero in the past four weeks)
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27 points)
5. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (26 points)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (25 points, six in the past four weeks)
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25 points, zero in the past four weeks)
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21 points)
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (18 points)
10. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (16 points, eight in the past four weeks)
We still have seven players within 10 points of the lead, so this is far from settled.
The current ESPN BET betting odds still have Mendoza (-130) and Sayin (+425) leading the way, with Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love (+500) and Pavia (+600) as the only other realistic contenders. (A&M’s Marcel Reed is at +1400, and somehow Georgia’s Gunner Stockton is only at +3500.) We still have time for a shift in conventional wisdom – I’d personally view this as a three-way tie between Mendoza, Sayin and Pavia at this point – but it still looks like we may be gearing up for a winner-take-all Mendoza-Sayin matchup in the Big Ten championship game.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
It’s fair to admit that most of the biggest games of the week weren’t incredibly gripping, but if you did a little digging around, you were rewarded.
1. Division II: Benedict 25, Wingate 24. This was the only possible choice for the No. 1 spot. Benedict trailed 24-7 in the first round of the D-II playoffs, and Wingate was lining up for a 21-yard chip-shot field goal to go up 20. But Isaiah Isidore blocked the field goal and returned it 95 yards for a touchdown. Then Tre Simmons scored with 3:36 left to make it 24-19. The Bulldogs got the ball back at their 14 with 19 seconds left and quickly threw three incompletions. It was time to try one of those lateral-fest plays that never work.
It worked.
1:12
Division II playoff game ends on unbelievable cross-field lateral TD play
Benedict stuns Wingate with a cross-field lateral to score a long touchdown to advance in the Division II playoffs.
It apparently worked so well that the cameraperson lost his or her mind halfway through. Malik Mullins’ touchdown, after a perfectly timed lateral and an absurd burst of speed, gave Benedict the win and a spot in the second round. Best ending of the season.
2. No. 12 Utah 51, Kansas State 47. I don’t know what happened to Utah’s defense in this one, and I don’t know whether the CFP committee will punish the Utes for falling short of expectations, but this was a magnificent game all the same.
3. FCS: Bethune-Cookman 38, Florida A&M 34. The HBCU universe always provides drama, but it outdid itself this week, not only with the Benedict game but also with this Florida Classic thriller, which saw four lead changes — and four long touchdowns — in the final eight minutes. Jamal Hailey put FAMU up 27-24 with a 72-yard touchdown run, but Bethune-Cookman went ahead 44 seconds later on a 67-yard pass from journeyman Timmy McClain to Javon Ross. FAMU went back ahead with 2:19 remaining, but on fourth-and-8 with 27 seconds left, McClain found Josh Evans somehow wide open for a 41-yard score.
The moment the Classic was ours 🫨🫨🫨🫨 pic.twitter.com/FNmtrPjbnf
— 🏈 Bethune-Cookman Football (@BCUGridiron) November 23, 2025
4. UConn 48, Florida Atlantic 45. UConn hasn’t had the greatest attention span in the world against lesser teams, but that’s been great for our entertainment. The Huskies led 24-3 after the first quarter, but FAU took the lead on a 90-yard Dominique Henry catch-and-run midway through the third. UConn responded with 14 quick points, but FAU took another lead with 2:11 remaining. UConn drove 75 yards in 1:45 to make it 48-45, but FAU drove 56 yards in just 22 seconds … but badly missed a 36-yard field goal at the buzzer.
Wheeeee!
5. Duke 32, North Carolina 25. UCLA gave us one of the worst fake field goals you’ll ever see late Saturday night (I’m not even going to share a link; you’ll have to look it up to find that monstrosity), but that only provided balance to the universe because a few hours earlier Duke pulled off one of the smoothest fakes you’ll ever see. Run, kicker, run!
DUKE PULLS OFF THE FAKE FIELD GOAL 🤯 @DukeFOOTBALL pic.twitter.com/syr9FoOdue
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 22, 2025
Todd Pelino‘s sprint set up the winning TD.
6. Tulsa 26, Army 25. With its methodical, relentless option game, you would figure Army would be one of the worst teams against which to attempt a late comeback. But trailing 25-14 with less than five minutes remaining, Tulsa scored on a 48-yard Seth Morgan field goal, then picked off a Cale Hellums pass (!) and scored with 1:53 left. The Golden Hurricane missed a game-tying 2-point conversion and couldn’t recover the onside kick, but no worries! They stuffed Army on fourth down, and Dominic Richardson rushed five times for 37 yards to set Morgan up for a game-winning 27-yarder.
7. Iowa 20, Michigan State 17. This one was remarkably similar to Tulsa-Army, only it was the favorite making the comeback. After a dire three quarters, Iowa found itself down 17-7 heading into the fourth, but a Drew Stevens field goal and a Jacob Gill touchdown tied the game with 1:29 left. Overtime? Nope! Michigan State went four-and-out, and Mark Gronowski completed three passes for 54 yards to set Stevens up with a 44-yarder. Being that he’s awesome, Stevens made it with ease.
DREW STEVENS WINS IT FOR IOWA ON SENIOR DAY ‼️@HawkeyeFootball pic.twitter.com/xl3IO3Wl9g
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 23, 2025
It was his fourth career winner.
8. FCS: Tarleton State 45, Austin Peay 44 (OT). On one hand, Tarleton State has slipped a bit in November and won’t enter the FCS playoffs with great title odds. On the other hand, all we care is that we’re entertained! And this game was bonkers. APSU went up early and led 28-14 at halftime, and TSU had to tie the game on three separate occasions — including on a 41-yard Corbin Poston field goal with four seconds left — to force overtime. The Texans scored in two plays in overtime, but APSU responded with a 25-yard Chris Parson run on its first play. The Governors, 18.5-point underdogs, naturally went for two points and the win … and Parson airmailed an open receiver. Oof.
1:18
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
9. FCS: South Dakota State 34, North Dakota 31 (OT). You know who didn’t airmail an open receiver? SDSU’s Jack Henry. The Jackrabbits trailed 20-7 with 17 minutes left but made a 21-0 charge before UND tied the game at 28-28 with 1:52 left. The Fighting Hawks settled for a field goal to open overtime, and SDSU was looking at a long-range FG to tie, but Henry scrambled to his right and found a leaping Grahm Goering for the game-winner.
0:24
Jack Henry throws 23-yard touchdown pass vs. North Dakota
Jack Henry connects for 23-yard TD pass
Not only was this a clutch play, but it was a season-saver — the Jackrabbits edged their way into the FCS playoffs because of it.
10. Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30 (Thursday). We got a wacky win probability chart for this one. ASU led at halftime thanks to both a Cody Sigler fumble return touchdown and a Chauncy Cobb kick return score. UL eased ahead in the second half, but ASU drove 89 yards in just over two late minutes. Unfortunately, the Red Wolves needed a 90th yard. Jaylen Raynor was stopped at the 1 as time expired.
11. Northwestern 38, Minnesota 35.
12. New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
13. Louisiana Tech 34, Liberty 28 (OT).
14. ForeverLawn Bowl: Wabash 32, Ohio Northern 31.
15. FCS: Albany 31, Monmouth 24.
16. TCU 17, No. 23 Houston 14.
17. Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34.
18. FCS: Tennessee Tech 20, UT Martin 17.
19. Division III: Wilkes 37, Shenandoah 35.
20. FCS: Montana State 31, Montana 28.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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