Connect with us

Published

on

President Putin’s engagement with Iran and North Korea to secure ammunition has been ridiculed in the West.

Putin started the war with 20 million artillery shells – dwarfing that available to the West – and even those war stocks appear insufficient.

Similarly, the West is struggling to meet Ukraine‘s ammunition requirements.

Should Kyiv’s backers invest in dramatically larger stockpiles of weapons, and does this portend a new era of dramatically increased defence spending?

The nuclear deterrent is relied on for its ultimate security against global superpowers.

But only eight – 4% – of the world’s independent nation-states are nuclear powers; although NATO provides a protective umbrella for select non-nuclear states, 85% of states are not members.

Russia‘s success at holding NATO at bay while invading a non-nuclear neighbour highlights a grave shortfall in deterrence capabilities.

More on Russia

And, with rogue states like North Korea and Iran pursuing nuclear status, the former world security equilibrium is vulnerable, a fresh approach is required.

Although bullets and artillery shells will endure as the building blocks of military capability, the legacy of two brutal world wars led the West to invest in technology to enable greater precision, reducing collateral damage and casualties.

During World War Two, a free-fall bomb launched from RAF bombers would – on average – miss the target by four miles. Even a thousand bomber raids would not guarantee to hit the target.

Today, a Joint Strike Fighter delivers precision – four feet, not four miles – using smaller bombs, with less collateral damage and fewer casualties.

Ukraine war – live updates

But, technology is expensive, so nations cannot afford significant weapon stockpiles. And, our defence industrial base is not configured to ramp up swiftly in times of war.

So, is Russia’s unprovoked aggression a wake-up call and is it time to spend more money on defence?

Membership of NATO is the UK’s ultimate security. We already meet the NATO obligation of spending 2% of GDP on defence – increasing this further risks subsidising our European colleagues.

Instead, we should be spending smarter, providing more cost-effective capability, perhaps even within a new defence paradigm.

Russia’s threat to Europe has been diminished – its military has been decimated by Ukraine and will take a decade to recover; however, a new vulnerability has been exposed.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

Although NATO might provide the UK with national security, our national interests will be increasingly vulnerable, and history suggests that simply battening down the hatches does not make the problem go away.

The answer? The basic need for ships, tanks and aircraft will endure, but the UK is no longer big enough to “do it all alone”.

Our protection lies in alliances, and that means making difficult choices about priorities.

In an uncertain world, the UK must be flexible, adaptable, and innovative – all qualities that Ukraine has exploited in its war with Russia.

That needs to be baked into our national defence DNA – currently, it is not.

The UK does not share Russia’s evident appetite for casualties, so as an island nation, our contribution needs to be through technology, enabling precision strikes and the spectrum of military capability that has served Ukraine so well.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What help can Kim give Russia?

Russia has an impressive arsenal of equipment but has failed to translate that into battlefield capability.

Operational training is a vital component of credible military capability.

But it is increasingly difficult to conduct realistic live operational training – peacetime safety constraints combined with the huge costs limit the benefits

Consequently, the military conducts an increasing amount of high-end and dynamic training in simulators, but single-service parochialism continues to hinder the development of a pan-defence virtual training eco-system – plug and play – to enable both national and international cost-effective operational training. This is vital for effective and credible military alliances.

Further, the Ukrainian experience of modifying drones overnight to address Russian capabilities highlights the importance of innovation – not just in the lab, but also on the battlefield.

The single services continue to exploit technology, but in parochial stovepipes, and not aligned to national/government initiatives.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Explosion’ in Crimean city attacked by Ukraine

Read more: Putin’s willingness to overlook Kim Jong Un’s nuclear ambitions speaks to his focus on Ukraine victory

But, in a political landscape dominated by a cost-of-living crisis, a crumbling NHS and a looming general election, will anything change?

Although Russia might have been neutered – at least for a decade – rogue nations globally will have been empowered by Russia’s experience.

And, terrorist organisations will have watched the Ukrainian “underdog” prevail against a Russian superpower by exploiting technology.

Weaponising drones has huge potential to cause disruption – and carnage – in our open society.

The West might be ridiculing President Putin for his engagement with North Korea in a desperate search for weapons, but we face the same strategic challenge – at least Putin has a plan.

Continue Reading

World

Trump-Putin summit starting to feel quite ‘Midnight Sun’ – as White House confirms location

Published

on

By

Trump-Putin summit starting to feel quite 'Midnight Sun' - as White House confirms location

It’s beginning to feel like “Midnight Sun” diplomacy.

In parts of Alaska, the sun doesn’t set in summer, casting light through the night but leaving you disorientated.

Ukraine latest: Zelenskyy reject’s Putin’s proposal

The Trump-Putin summit is pitched as “transparent” but it’s difficult to find any path to peace right now.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has reduced it to a “listening exercise” where Donald Trump will seek a “better understanding” of the situation.

There isn’t much to understand – Russia wants territory, Ukraine isn’t ceding it – but Ms Levitt rejects talk of them “tempering expectations”.

It’s possible to be both hopeful and measured, she says, because Mr Trump wants peace but is only meeting one side on Friday.

It’s the fact that he’s only meeting Vladimir Putin that concerns European leaders, who fear Ukraine could be side-lined by any Trump-Putin pact.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims Mr Putin wants the rest of Donetsk and, in effect, the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

He’s ruled out surrendering that because it would rob him of key defence lines and leave Kyiv vulnerable to future offensives.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Steps have been taken to remedy the situation’ in Pokrovsk

European leaders – including Sir Keir Starmer – will hold online talks with Mr Zelenskyy twice on Wednesday, on either side of a virtual call with Mr Trump and US Vice President JD Vance.

Their concerns may be getting through, hence the White House now framing the summit as a cautious fact-finding exercise and nothing more.

The only thing we really learned from the latest news conference is that the first Trump-Putin meeting in six years will be in Anchorage.

A White House official later confirmed it would be at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, a US military facility.

Read more:
The land Ukraine could be forced to give up
Trump gaffe reveals how central Putin is to his narrative

The US base where the talks will take place. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The US base where the talks will take place. Pic: Reuters

Alaska itself, with its history and geography, is a layered metaphor: a place the Russians sold to the US in the 1800s.

A remote but strategic frontier where the lines of ownership and the rules of negotiation are once again being sketched out.

On a clear day, you can see Russia from Alaska, but without Mr Zelenskyy in the room, it’s difficult to see them conquering any summit.

In the place where the sun never sets, the deal might never start.

Continue Reading

World

Explained: The land Ukraine could be forced to give up – and will Russia have to concede anything?

Published

on

By

Explained: The land Ukraine could be forced to give up - and will Russia have to concede anything?

Any agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin when they meet on Friday could leave Ukraine in an impossible position after three years of brutal, grinding war for survival.

There has been speculation the two leaders could agree a so-called ‘land for peace’ deal which could see Ukraine instructed to give up territory in exchange for an end to the fighting.

That would effectively be an annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory by Russia by force.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday evening that Mr Putin wants the rest of Donetsk – and in effect the entire eastern Donbas region – as part of a ceasefire plan.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky’s Michael Clarke explains in more detail what territories are under possible threat.

But the Ukrainian leader said Kyiv would reject the proposal and explained that such a move would deprive them of defensive lines and open the way for Moscow to conduct further offensives.

Russia currently occupies around 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea and the parts of the Donbas region it seized prior to the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

President Trump has said he hopes to get “prime territory” back for Ukraine, though it’s uncertain what President Putin would agree to.

More on Russia

In this story, Sky News speaks to experts about what the highly-anticipated meeting between the Russian and American presidents could mean for the battlefield.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska. Pic: Reuters

A ceasefire along the frontline?

The range of outcomes for the Trump-Putin meeting is broad, with anything from no progress to a ceasefire possible.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, for instance, said this week that he has “many fears and a lot of hope” for what could come out of it.

Military analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News that the summit “certainly won’t create peace, but it might create a ceasefire in place if Putin decides to be flexible”.

“So far he hasn’t shown any flexibility at all,” he added.

A ceasefire along the frontline, with minimal withdrawals on both sides, would be “structurally changing” and an “astonishing outcome”, he said.

However he doubts this will happen. Mr Clarke said a favourable outcome could be the two sides agreeing to a ceasefire that would start in two weeks time (for instance) with threats of sanctions from the US if Russia or Ukraine breaks it.

Read more:
What Trump’s Putin gaffe reveals about upcoming meeting

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

President Zelenskyy: ‘Path to peace must be determined together’

Will Ukraine be forced to give up territory to Russia?

While President Trump’s attitude to Ukrainian resistance appears possibly more favourable from his recent comments, it’s still possible that Kyiv could be asked to give up territory as part of any agreement with Russia.

Moscow has been focussed on four oblasts (regions) of Ukraine: Luhansk and Donetsk (the Donbas), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

President Putin’s forces control almost all of Luhansk, but about 30% of the others remain in Ukrainian hands and are fiercely contested.

“Russian rates of advance have picked up in the last month, but even though they are making ground, it would still take years (three or more) at current rates to capture all this territory,” Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the RUSI thinktank, told Sky News.

He says it “wouldn’t be surprising” if Russia tried to acquire the rest of the Donbas as part of negotiations – something that is “highly unattractive” for Ukraine that could leave them vulnerable in future.

This would include surrendering some of the ‘fortress belt’ – a network of four settlements including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – that has held back Russian forces for 11 years.

Michael Clarke said this might well satisfy President Putin “for now”, but many believe that he would return for the rest of Ukraine – possibly after President Trump leaves office.

It’s unclear if President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could accept such a painful concession – or indeed, survive it politically – or if the wider Ukrainian public would support it in return for a pause in the fighting.

Would Russia have to return any territory to Ukraine?

The White House appears to have been briefing that it might, though the situation is very unclear.

Mr Savill added: “The Ukrainians might want to even up the situation in the north, by removing Russian incursions into Sumy and near Kharkiv, but of greater importance would be getting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant back under Ukrainian control, given how much it would contribute to Ukrainian power needs.”

It’s also possible that Russia could be willing to withdraw from the areas of Kherson region that it controls.

It’s “plausible” they could get the power plant back, Mr Clarke said, but Russia would likely insist on maintaining access to Crimea by land.

This would mean that cities Mariupol and Melitopol – would remain in Russian hands, with all that that entails for the people living there.

Continue Reading

World

What are West Bank settlements, who are settlers, and why are they controversial?

Published

on

By

What are West Bank settlements, who are settlers, and why are they controversial?

There are increasing reports of violence and intimidation by Israeli settlers in occupied Palestinian territory.

Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay has been inside the West Bank, where he’s found settlers feeling emboldened since the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.

With the government largely supporting them, they act with impunity and are in many ways enabled by Israel security forces.

But what are the settlements, and why are they controversial?

What are settlements?

A settlement is an Israeli-built village, town, or city in occupied Palestinian territory – either in the West Bank or East Jerusalem.

The largest, Modi’in Illit, is thought to house around 82,000 settlers, according to Peace Now.

There is also a growing movement of Israelis wanting to build settlements in Gaza.

Settlements are illegal under international law and have been condemned by the UN. They are, however, authorised by the Israeli government.

As well as official, government-approved settlements, there are also Israeli outposts.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Israeli settlers attack Palestinian villages

These are established without government approval and are considered illegal by Israeli authorities. But reports suggest the government often turns a blind eye to their creation.

Israel began building settlements shortly after the 1967 Six-Day War.

The Etzion Bloc in Hebron, which was established that year, now houses around 40,000 people.

Read more:
Israel-Hamas war: A glossary of terms
Israeli-Palestinian conflict: A century of war, heartbreak, hope
What is the two-state solution?

According to the Israel Policy Forum, the settlement programme is intended to protect Israel’s security, with settlers acting as the first line of defence “against an invasion”.

The Israeli public appears divided on the effectiveness of the settlements, however.

A Palestinian man walks next to a wall covered with sprayed Hebrew slogans. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A Palestinian man walks next to a wall covered with sprayed Hebrew slogans. Pic: Reuters

A 2024 Pew Research Centre poll found that 40% of Israelis believe settlements help Israeli security, 35% say they hurt it, and 21% think they make no difference.

Why are they controversial?

Israeli settlements are built on land that is internationally recognised as Palestinian territory.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

The activists trying to stop Israeli settlers

Sky News has spoken to multiple Palestinians who say they were forced out of their homes by Israeli settlers, despite having lived there for generations.

“They gradually invade the community and expand. The goal is to terrorise people, to make them flee,” Rachel Abramovitz, a member of the group Looking The Occupation In The Eye, told Sky News in May.

Settlers who have spoken to Sky News say they have a holy right to occupy the land.

American-born Israeli settler Daniel Winston told Sky’s chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay: “God’s real, and he wrote the Bible, and the Bible says, ‘I made this land, and I want you to be here’.”

Settlers make up around 5% of Israel’s population and 15% of the West Bank’s population, according to data from Peace Now.

How have things escalated since 7 October 2023?

Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent military bombardment of Gaza, more than 100 Israeli outposts have been established, according to Peace Now.

In May, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government approved 22 new settlements, including the legalisation of outposts that had previously been built without authorisation.

Settler violence against Palestinians has also increased, according to the UN, with an average of 118 incidents each month – up from 108 in 2023, which was already a record year.

The UK government has sanctioned two members of Mr Netanyahu’s cabinet, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, for “repeated incitements of violence against Palestinian civilians” – notably in the West Bank.

The UN’s latest report on Israeli settlements notes that in October 2024, there were 162 settler attacks on Palestinian olive harvesters, many of them in the presence of IDF soldiers.

Of the 174 settler violence incidents studied by the UN, 109 were not reported to Israeli authorities.

Most Palestinian victims said they didn’t report the attacks due to a lack of trust in the Israeli system; some said they feared retaliation by settlers or the authorities if they did.

Continue Reading

Trending