President Putin’s engagement with Iran and North Korea to secure ammunition has been ridiculed in the West.
Putin started the war with 20 million artillery shells – dwarfing that available to the West – and even those war stocks appear insufficient.
Similarly, the West is struggling to meet Ukraine‘s ammunition requirements.
Should Kyiv’s backers invest in dramatically larger stockpiles of weapons, and does this portend a new era of dramatically increased defence spending?
The nuclear deterrent is relied on for its ultimate security against global superpowers.
But only eight – 4% – of the world’s independent nation-states are nuclear powers; although NATO provides a protective umbrella for select non-nuclear states, 85% of states are not members.
Russia‘s success at holding NATO at bay while invading a non-nuclear neighbour highlights a grave shortfall in deterrence capabilities.
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And, with rogue states like North Korea and Iran pursuing nuclear status, the former world security equilibrium is vulnerable, a fresh approach is required.
Although bullets and artillery shells will endure as the building blocks of military capability, the legacy of two brutal world wars led the West to invest in technology to enable greater precision, reducing collateral damage and casualties.
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During World War Two, a free-fall bomb launched from RAF bombers would – on average – miss the target by four miles. Even a thousand bomber raids would not guarantee to hit the target.
Today, a Joint Strike Fighter delivers precision – four feet, not four miles – using smaller bombs, with less collateral damage and fewer casualties.
But, technology is expensive, so nations cannot afford significant weapon stockpiles. And, our defence industrial base is not configured to ramp up swiftly in times of war.
So, is Russia’s unprovoked aggression a wake-up call and is it time to spend more money on defence?
Membership of NATO is the UK’s ultimate security. We already meet the NATO obligation of spending 2% of GDP on defence – increasing this further risks subsidising our European colleagues.
Instead, we should be spending smarter, providing more cost-effective capability, perhaps even within a new defence paradigm.
Russia’s threat to Europe has been diminished – its military has been decimated by Ukraine and will take a decade to recover; however, a new vulnerability has been exposed.
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Although NATO might provide the UK with national security, our national interests will be increasingly vulnerable, and history suggests that simply battening down the hatches does not make the problem go away.
The answer? The basic need for ships, tanks and aircraft will endure, but the UK is no longer big enough to “do it all alone”.
Our protection lies in alliances, and that means making difficult choices about priorities.
In an uncertain world, the UK must be flexible, adaptable, and innovative – all qualities that Ukraine has exploited in its war with Russia.
That needs to be baked into our national defence DNA – currently, it is not.
The UK does not share Russia’s evident appetite for casualties, so as an island nation, our contribution needs to be through technology, enabling precision strikes and the spectrum of military capability that has served Ukraine so well.
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2:16
What help can Kim give Russia?
Russia has an impressive arsenal of equipment but has failed to translate that into battlefield capability.
Operational training is a vital component of credible military capability.
But it is increasingly difficult to conduct realistic live operational training – peacetime safety constraints combined with the huge costs limit the benefits
Consequently, the military conducts an increasing amount of high-end and dynamic training in simulators, but single-service parochialism continues to hinder the development of a pan-defence virtual training eco-system – plug and play – to enable both national and international cost-effective operational training. This is vital for effective and credible military alliances.
Further, the Ukrainian experience of modifying drones overnight to address Russian capabilities highlights the importance of innovation – not just in the lab, but also on the battlefield.
The single services continue to exploit technology, but in parochial stovepipes, and not aligned to national/government initiatives.
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But, in a political landscape dominated by a cost-of-living crisis, a crumbling NHS and a looming general election, will anything change?
Although Russia might have been neutered – at least for a decade – rogue nations globally will have been empowered by Russia’s experience.
And, terrorist organisations will have watched the Ukrainian “underdog” prevail against a Russian superpower by exploiting technology.
Weaponising drones has huge potential to cause disruption – and carnage – in our open society.
The West might be ridiculing President Putin for his engagement with North Korea in a desperate search for weapons, but we face the same strategic challenge – at least Putin has a plan.
Tens of thousands of people have packed St Peter’s Square as the funeral of Pope Francis begins.
Royals, world leaders and cardinals joined scores of worshippers at the Vatican, as mourning of the 266th pontiff transcended wealth and social class.
In keeping with Francis’s life as a breaker of tradition, many of the more elaborate and expensive rituals customary for the burial of popes have been foregone in favour of simpler options.
Around 200,000 people are attending the funeral, with around 50,000 packing out St Peter’s Square.
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His body had been lying in state since his death aged 88 on Easter Monday, spending the last few days in St Peter’s Basilica to allow mourners to pay their respects.
The Vatican – where the funeral service is taking place – and Rome – where Francis will be laid to rest – are under heavy security, with a no-fly zone in place overhead.
Image: The coffin of Pope Francis is borne aloft by pallbearers. Pic: Reuters
Image: Members of the clergy gathered to say farewell to their pontiff. Pic: Reuters
Francis’s coffin has been taken out into St Peter’s Square where 220 cardinals and 750 bishops and priests are sitting in rows, waiting to say goodbye to the Bishop of Rome.
A series of readings and prayers are being read before the 50,000 faithful gathered before the basilica, and the coffin will be sprinkled with holy water and incense.
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2:27
Singing rings out at the Vatican
Image: Members of the clergy stand in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
It began with Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re reading the Penitential Act – a way for the faithful to confess their sinfulness.
This was followed by the Liturgy of the Word, a part in Catholic mass where faithful gather to hear and reflect on the word of God.
Cardinal Re then delivered the homily, speaking about Pope Francis’ life and service to God.
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0:52
Applause breaks out as Zelenskyy arrives
Image: Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re read the homily
The cardinal praised the pontiff as someone who “touched the minds and hearts of people” who was “attentive to the signs of the times”.
He added: “Despite his frailty and suffering towards the end, Pope Francis chose to follow this path of self-giving until the last day of his earthly life.”
He said Francis “was a pope among the people, with an open heart towards everyone”.
Image: Tens of thousands pack St Peter’s Square for the funeral. Pic: AP
Image: Clergy seated during the funeral. Pic: AP
At the end of the mass, the choir will sing in Latin: “May the angels lead you into paradise; may the martyrs come and welcome you and take you into the holy city, the new and eternal Jerusalem.”
After the service, Pope Francis’s body will be taken in procession through the streets of Rome to his final resting place at his favourite church, the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore.
Image: Worshippers outside the Papal Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore. Pic: Reuters
He will be ushered into the basilica – dedicated to the Virgin Mary – by prisoners and migrants, a last reflection of his priorities as pope.
In a break with tradition, the Popeoutlined in his will his request to be buried “in the ground, without particular ornamentation” but simply with the inscription “Franciscus”.
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
Image: Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, told NBC News that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
Dini von Mueffling, Giuffre’s representative, also told the outlet: “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims. She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words. It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
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Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘I am now a survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
As the line of mourners moves slowly along behind him, Ciriaco Sarnelli peers at me from beneath the immaculate brim of his cap.
The military police chief looks, by any standards, magnificent – shoulders back and proudly wearing the black uniform of the Carabinieri.
“Our history goes back more than 200 years,” he says. “We remember our past, and our place. The only people with black uniforms are the priests, the judges and the Carabinieri.”
He leaves the rest unsaid – the Carabinieri sit at the heart of Italian cultural life.
Image: Ciriaco Sarnelli, Carabinieri military police chief
Once, they defended the borders of a young nation. Now, they have a new challenge that has its own weighty burden – to keep St Peter’s Square safe during the funeral of Pope Francis.
This is no easy task. Hundreds of thousands will descend upon the Vatican for the event.
Inside will be Donald Trump, Sir Keir Starmer, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Prince William and dozens upon dozens of other dignitaries.
Outside will be the Carabinieri.
They won’t be alone – there are thousands of other police officers due to be assigned to protect the event – but the Carabinieri are affiliated to the military; the most highly-trained officers on duty.
Image: A member of the security personnel wields an anti-drone gun for the Pope’s funeral
“This is an extraordinary operation,” says Sarnelli, as we look out over the crowd. “So we have employed some special units that belong to Carabinieri – the bomb squad, a dogs unit, snipers and helicopters. We want to assure the people who are arriving here that they can take part in this event in the best way, in a secure way.”
He says they are ready for “common crimes” – like pickpockets in the crowd – but also “the biggest, terrifying events”.
He says there is “excellent coordination” with police forces from other countries.
Around him, his officers are smiling, chatting to tourists and Romans alike.
The security here is overt but friendly, even if I’m told there are also plenty of plain-clothed officers mingling within the crowd.
Guns and grins both on show.
A police helicopter circles above. In the port of Rome, a naval destroyer has been primed for action; there are fighter jets ready to take off.
You can watch full coverage of the funeral live on Sky News on Saturday
Image: Huge crowds have come from around the world to see the Pope’s body
If the impression is relaxed, the reality is different. The classic swan.
All the strands are pulled together from one place and, what’s more, it offers a perfect view of Vatican City.
From where I’m standing, I can see the front of St Peter’s Basilica, the side, and the roads around it. I can see the crowds coming in, and the crowds going out.
And I can see an anxious policeman drumming his fingers.
But we are not in St Peter’s and not even in the Vatican.
This is the high-security control room on the fifth floor of Rome’s police headquarters.
And from here, you can see everything.
Image: The control room from where security officials can see across the Italian capital
An array of screens are in front of us and, watching them, men and women, huddled over screens and all wearing contrasting uniforms.
Some are military, some national police, some wear the clothes of firefighters. A few are in plain clothes and there is even a man wearing the badge of the prison officers’ service.
This centre is a hub for collaboration and decision-making and it brings together every service that is involved in ensuring the safety and security of the funeral.
There is a Carabinieri officer here, as well as the Guardia di Finanza national police and the Roman force. The government’s secret intelligence service is represented here, too.
Elisabetta Accardo is from Rome’s police department. We talk against the gentle hubbub in the control room, colleagues pointing at screens and agreeing plans.
Image: Elisabetta Accardo, Rome Police control room spokeswoman
I ask when Italy last had to deal with a security operation on this scale, and she laughs. “Hundreds of years,” she says.
“It is unprecedented. The level of security is at the maximum.” She describes the plan as “structured three-dimensional security”.
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It is a plan that has been long in the making, but which has been reshaped over the past few days to react to the whims of the Pope’s final wishes.
It is, after all, more than a century since a pope was buried outside the walls of the Vatican.
You get the impression that the people designing the security plan could rather have done without having to add an hour-long procession through Rome into the plan.
But so be it.
By Saturday night, it will be done. Rome can start to get back to normal; the foreign leaders will be on their way home.
And the Rome police will breathe just a little bit easier.