Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now into its fourth month. Kyiv’s forces, bolstered by Western tanks and weapons, are putting pressure on Russian positions but have yet to achieve a major breakthrough.
But all across Ukraine, there is a sense that things could change very quickly. A section of defences could collapse, and fortunes could turn.
Sky News spoke to military expert Sean Bell about the different parts of the frontline and how each could be a flashpoint, from crossing the Dnipro in the west to the push to liberate Bakhmut in the east.
We’ve zeroed in on five locations and ask, is this where the war could be decided?
Can Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia?
The southern battle-zone in the Zaporizhzhia region is perhaps the most talked about part of the war at the moment.
Bell says this so-called land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas is “the least hard place” for Ukrainians to liberate the most territory.
Ukrainian forces are slowly but steadily pushing south but are coming up against defensive emplacements that Russia has spent months building.
Ukrainian soldiers near the frontline in Zaporizhzhia region
The Surovikin line, named after a Russian general, extends through the area, a triple layer of defences comprising an anti-tank ditch, dragons’ teeth obstacles and then defensive positions in trenches.
If Ukrainian forces are able to pierce through in Zaporizhzhia and reach the coast of the Sea of Azov – or at least get close enough to hit the remaining territory with artillery – it would effectively cut Russian forces in half.
“If they can break through all those defences then suddenly there could be a rout of Russian forces in that land bridge,” Bell says.
There has been evidence so far during the counteroffensive that Ukraine has been keeping much of its Western tanks and best-trained troops in reserve, waiting for a breakthrough somewhere along the line.
Now, it seems, some of these tanks are being sent in to fight in the battle for Zaporizhzhia.
“You are never sure what will be the chink that will break the dam, you will never know until the crack emerges and the floodgates open.
“The question is whether the Ukrainians then have the stamina and the morale and the equipment to take advantage of it.”
Encircling a ruined city – and pinning down Russian forces
The city held out for so long. Waves and waves of Russian soldiers – many of them conscripts and former prisoners – were sent against Ukrainian defences and again and again Bakhmut held.
It was a controversial decision to keep defending the city, and there were many in the West who argued it was a mistake, but in the end it allowed Ukraine to inflict huge casualties on Russia and allow Kyiv time to get hold of Western tanks.
Russian forces, in particular Wagner Group mercenaries who are no longer involved, took the city at great cost.
The ruins of Bakhmut
Bakhmut does not exist as a city in the way it did before. Months of constant shelling by Russian forces have raised it to the ground.
It has little strategic value, but as a propaganda piece it is huge for Vladimir Putin.
Now, Ukraine is gaining ground around it. Could Bakhmut be liberated?
Bell says: “Bakhmut is one of those iconic places and Russia made a big thing of taking it, lost tens of thousands of lives taking it and will not want to lose it again.
“Most of the reports are the Ukrainian progress rather than Russian, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any momentum at the moment.
“Ukrainian pressure there is all designed to fix Russian forces in place.”
Is Russia pushing back in Kharkiv?
One of the main efforts of Russian forces – apart from holding back Ukrainian advances – is trying to take territory in the northeast, near Kharkiv.
Ukraine had great success in that arena last year, carrying out stunning advances around Kharkiv city.
Not only did they buy valuable breathing space for the ‘Hero City’, they liberated swathes of territory, including Kupyansk and Izium.
Now Russian troops are seeking to reverse some of those gains.
“The lines of communication there are very short for the Russian forces,” Bell says.
This is because of how close things are to the Russian border. Unlike in other parts of Ukraine, it’s much easier for Russia to resupply and communicate with its troops in the Kharkiv region.
In recent weeks they have claimed to have made advances, and fighting has been fierce and bloody.
Bell adds: “Russia has not been effective at conducting offensive operations since the start of the war – and that was when they had mercenary support with the Wagner Group.
“So it’s no great surprise that the Russian military are struggling to make progress.”
Crossing the Dnipro while Russia is busy elsewhere
One of the least talked about areas of the frontline is the River Dnipro, near the city of Kherson.
When Ukrainian forces swept through the region and liberated the city last year, the water became the new boundary between them and Russian forces.
This, Bell says, is why Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam in June this year, sending torrents of water over the landscape.
Water flows over the collapsed Nova Kakhovka dam. Pic: AP
“By blowing the Kakhovka dam that basically said ‘right Ukraine you are not going to be able to cross the Dnipro and we are going to leave it relatively unprotected’.”
That may have been true a few months ago, but the land is starting to dry out, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine.
“It’s a lot more accessible now and almost certainly isn’t the Russians’ main focus,” Bell says.
“It leaves them vulnerable down that flank.”
There are even reports that Ukraine has managed to land troops on the other side of the Dnipro.
But while that is progress for Kyiv, it’s not the same as establishing a beachhead from which they can deploy tanks and heavy weapons.
Bell compared it to D-Day, when the Allies managed to establish control over a chunk of French beach in June 1944 and held it until they could get armour on the ground and push outwards.
But he added that the more Ukraine puts pressure on Russian forces there, the more Kremlin commanders will have to reckon with a difficult choice: weaken their forces elsewhere to shore up the Dnipro, or risk a breakthrough across the water…
Drones, explosives and raids on Crimea
While it’s not on the frontline, Ukraine has certainly brought the war to Crimea in recent months.
Wave after wave of maritime drones are harassing Russian ships in the area, the Kerch Bridge has been hit multiple times and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly struck on the peninsula itself.
Crimea is home to Vladimir Putin’s prized Black Sea Fleet and is of huge strategic value due to its location on the Black Sea.
It has been in Russian hands since it was annexed in 2014 but Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to return it to Ukraine.
Ukrainian sea drones have been used in Black Sea attacks
Still, it’s very heavily fortified and will be very difficult to capture by force. Indeed, in the Second World War the Axis forces led by Nazi Germany lost 30,000 men in pursuit of Crimea.
So why is Ukraine attacking it? Because putting aside the prospect of seizing the territory, it helps their forces elsewhere.
Bell says “Ukraine has made clear its intent to take it, and what that does is it forces Russia to keep forces back to protect it.”
Russia might have 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine, but if it puts them all on the frontline then there is no one to defend Crimea if Kyiv’s forces make a breakthrough.
“The more that Ukraine threatens Crimea, the more Russia has to protect it and take its forces away from the frontline.”
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World
In the idyllic Cognac region of southern France, Trump’s tariffs threaten a centuries-old way of life
The impact of Trump’s tariffs is reaching deep into every economy.
We travelled into the French rural heartland, heading for Cognac – the home of French brandy.
It is only half the size of Surrey but its exports to America are worth €1bn a year and that trade is now severely threatened.
The first buds are out on the vines of Amy Pasquet’s vineyard.
An American, she has married into the industry and with her French husband owns JLP Cognac.
She knows more than most the bond brandy has formed between their two countries that goes back to the war.
Tariffs latest: Follow live updates
Ms Pasquet said: “A lot of the African-American soldiers had really loved their experience here and had brought back the cognac. And I think that stayed because this African-American community truly is a community and they want to drink like their grandfather did.”
The ties remain with rappers like Jay Z’s love for cognac.
However, Ms Pasquet adds: “There’s also this other community of people who have been drinking bourbon for a long time, love bourbon, but find the prices just outrageous today. So they want to try something different.”
Amy Pasquet owns JLP Cognac with her husband
JLP’s products were served at New York’s prestigious Met Gala.
They were preparing to launch new product lines in the US. But now that’s in doubt.
It is hard being an American in France now, Ms Pasquet says.
Her French neighbours are appalled by what US President Donald Trump is doing.
She continues: “They’re like, okay, America’s forgotten how close France and America are as far as (their) relationship is concerned. And I think that’s hurtful on both sides. I think it’s important to remember that the US is many things, and not just this one person, and there are millions of inhabitants that didn’t vote for him.”
A fresh challenge for a centuries-old tradition
Making cognac takes years, using techniques that go back centuries. In another vineyard we met Pierre Louis Giboin whose family have been doing it for more than 200 years.
In a cellar dating back to the French Revolution, barrels of oak sit under thick cobwebs, ageing the brandy.
The walls are lined with a unique black mould that thrives off the vapours of cognac.
They have seen threats come and go over those centuries, wars, weather, pestilence. But never from a country they regard as one of their oldest allies and best of customers.
Read more:
What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war
How tariffs will affect your money
Could Trump’s tariffs tip the world into recession?
Pierre Louis Giboin’s cellar dates back to the French revolution
Mr Trump’s tariffs, says Mr Giboin, now threaten a way of life.
“It’s at the end of like very good times in the Cognac region. It’s been like 10 years when everything’s been perfect, we have good harvest, we sell really easily all the stock, but now I mean it’s the end.”
Ms Pasquet and Mr Giboin are unusual.
Most cognac makers sell their produce through the drink’s four big houses, Hennessy, Remy Martin, Martell and Courvoisier.
Some have been told the amounts they can sell have been drastically reduced.
Independents though like them must find new markets if the tariff threat persists.
Confusion away from the chaos
Outside in the dappled light of a Cognac evening Mr Giboin and I toast glasses of pineau – the diluted form of cognac drunk as an aperitif.
In this idyllic corner of France, a world away from Washington, Mr Trump’s trade war on Europe simply makes no sense.
“He’s like angry against the whole world and the way he talks like that Europe the EU was made against the US to cheat on the US. It’s just crazy to think like this,” Mr Giboin says.
It’s not just what Mr Trump’s done. It’s how Europe now strikes back that concerns the French. And it’s not just in Cognac where they’re concerned
France exports more than €2bn worth of wine to America.
In the heart of the Bordeaux wine region, Sylvie Courselle’s family have been making wine since the 1940s at their Chateau Thieuley vineyard.
It’s bottling season but they can’t prepare the wine headed for America while everything is up in the air.
Showing me the unused reels of US labels for her wine she told me she was losing sleep over the uncertainty.
Later she was meeting with her American distributors.
Gerry Keogh sells Ms Courselle’s wine across the US.
He says the entire industry is reeling
Sylvie Courselle with distributers
The Chateau Thieuley vineyard in the Bordeaux wine region
“I think it’s like anything. You don’t really believe it’s happening. And even when you’re in the midst of it, it was kind of like 9/11.
“You’re like… This is actually happening. It’s unbelievable. And when you start seeing the repercussions from the stock market, et cetera, and how it’s impacting every level, it’s quite shocking.”
They know the crisis is far from over and could now escalate.
“We feel stuck in the middle of this commercial war and we don’t have the weapons to fight, I think,” Ms Courselle said.
It is, she says, very stressful.
Gerry Keogh
The histories of America and France have been intertwined for centuries through revolutions against tyranny and two wars fighting for liberty.
America used to call France its oldest ally, but under Donald Trump its now seen here as turning on France and the rest of Europe in a reckless and unjustified trade war.
It is all doing enormous harm to relations between the US and its European allies.
How Europe now decides to retaliate will help determine the extent of that damage.
World
In the idyllic Cognac region of southern France, Trump’s tariffs threaten a centuries-old way of life
The impact of Trump’s tariffs is reaching deep into every economy.
We travelled into the French rural heartland, heading for Cognac – the home of French brandy.
It is only half the size of Surrey but its exports to America are worth €1bn a year and that trade is now severely threatened.
The first buds are out on the vines of Amy Pasquet’s vineyard.
An American, she has married into the industry and with her French husband owns JLP Cognac.
She knows more than most the bond brandy has formed between their two countries that goes back to the war.
Tariffs latest: Follow live updates
Ms Pasquet said: “A lot of the African-American soldiers had really loved their experience here and had brought back the cognac. And I think that stayed because this African-American community truly is a community. and they want to drink like their grandfather did.”
The ties remain with rappers like Jay Z’s love for cognac.
However, Ms Pasquet adds: “There’s also this other community of people who have been drinking bourbon for a long time, love bourbon, but find the prices just outrageous today. So they want to try something different.”
Amy Pasquet owns JLP Cognac with her husband
JLP’s products were served at New York’s prestigious Met Gala.
They were preparing to launch new product lines in the US. But now that’s in doubt.
It is hard being an American in France now, Ms Pasquet says.
Her French neighbours are appalled by what US President Donald Trump is doing.
She continues: “They’re like, okay, America’s forgotten how close France and America are as far as (their) relationship is concerned. And I think that’s hurtful on both sides. I think it’s important to remember that the US is many things, and not just this one person, and there are millions of inhabitants that didn’t vote for him.”
A fresh challenge for a centuries-old tradition
Making cognac takes years, using techniques that go back centuries. In another vineyard we met Pierre Louis Giboin whose family have been doing it for more than 200 years.
In a cellar dating back to the French Revolution, barrels of oak sit under thick cobwebs, ageing the brandy.
The walls are lined with a unique black mould that thrives off the vapours of cognac.
They have seen threats come and go over those centuries, wars, weather, pestilence. But never from a country they regard as one of their oldest allies and best of customers.
Read more:
What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war
How tariffs will affect your money
Could Trump’s tariffs tip the world into recession?
Pierre Louis Giboin’s cellar dates back to the French revolution
Mr Trump’s tariffs, says Mr Giboin, now threaten a way of life.
“It’s at the end of like very good times in the Cognac region. It’s been like 10 years when everything’s been perfect, we have good harvest, we sell really easily all the stock, but now I mean it’s the end.”
Ms Pasquet and Mr Giboin are unusual.
Most cognac makers sell their produce through the drink’s four big houses, Hennessy, Remy Martin, Martell and Courvoisier.
Some have been told the amounts they can sell have been drastically reduced.
Independents though like them must find new markets if the tariff threat persists.
Confusion away from the chaos
Outside in the dappled light of a Cognac evening Mr Giboin and I toast glasses of pineau – the diluted form of cognac drunk as an aperitif.
In this idyllic corner of France, a world away from Washington, Mr Trump’s trade war on Europe simply makes no sense.
“He’s like angry against the whole world and the way he talks like that Europe the EU was made against the US to cheat on the US. It’s just crazy to think like this,” Mr Giboin says.
It’s not just what Mr Trump’s done. It’s how Europe now strikes back that concerns the French. And it’s not just in Cognac where they’re concerned
France exports more than €2bn worth of wine to America.
In the heart of the Bordeaux wine region, Sylvie Courselle’s family have been making wine since the 1940s at their Chateau Thieuley vineyard.
It’s bottling season but they can’t prepare the wine headed for America while everything is up in the air.
Showing me the unused reels of US labels for her wine she told me she was losing sleep over the uncertainty.
Later she was meeting with her American distributors.
Gerry Keogh sells Ms Courselle’s wine across the US.
He says the entire industry is reeling
Sylvie Courselle with distributers
The Chateau Thieuley vineyard in the Bordeaux wine region
“I think it’s like anything. You don’t really believe it’s happening. And even when you’re in the midst of it, it was kind of like 9/11.
“You’re like… This is actually happening. It’s unbelievable. And when you start seeing the repercussions from the stock market, et cetera, and how it’s impacting every level, it’s quite shocking.”
They know the crisis is far from over and could now escalate.
“We feel stuck in the middle of this commercial war and we don’t have the weapons to fight, I think,” Ms Courselle said.
It is, she says, very stressful.
Gerry Keogh
The histories of America and France have been intertwined for centuries through revolutions against tyranny and two wars fighting for liberty.
America used to call France its oldest ally, but under Mr Trump it is now being as turned on, as France, along with the rest of Europe, finds itself in what many would argue is a reckless and unjustified trade war.
It is all doing enormous harm to relations between the US and its European allies.
How Europe now decides to retaliate will help determine the extent of that damage.
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