When will Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia or send troops across the Dnipro river?
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now into its fourth month. Kyiv’s forces, bolstered by Western tanks and weapons, are putting pressure on Russian positions but have yet to achieve a major breakthrough.
But all across Ukraine, there is a sense that things could change very quickly. A section of defences could collapse, and fortunes could turn.
Sky News spoke to military expert Sean Bell about the different parts of the frontline and how each could be a flashpoint, from crossing the Dnipro in the west to the push to liberate Bakhmut in the east.
We’ve zeroed in on five locations and ask, is this where the war could be decided?
Can Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia?
The southern battle-zone in the Zaporizhzhia region is perhaps the most talked about part of the war at the moment.
Bell says this so-called land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas is “the least hard place” for Ukrainians to liberate the most territory.
Ukrainian forces are slowly but steadily pushing south but are coming up against defensive emplacements that Russia has spent months building.
Ukrainian soldiers near the frontline in Zaporizhzhia region
The Surovikin line, named after a Russian general, extends through the area, a triple layer of defences comprising an anti-tank ditch, dragons’ teeth obstacles and then defensive positions in trenches.
If Ukrainian forces are able to pierce through in Zaporizhzhia and reach the coast of the Sea of Azov – or at least get close enough to hit the remaining territory with artillery – it would effectively cut Russian forces in half.
“If they can break through all those defences then suddenly there could be a rout of Russian forces in that land bridge,” Bell says.
There has been evidence so far during the counteroffensive that Ukraine has been keeping much of its Western tanks and best-trained troops in reserve, waiting for a breakthrough somewhere along the line.
Now, it seems, some of these tanks are being sent in to fight in the battle for Zaporizhzhia.
“You are never sure what will be the chink that will break the dam, you will never know until the crack emerges and the floodgates open.
“The question is whether the Ukrainians then have the stamina and the morale and the equipment to take advantage of it.”
Encircling a ruined city – and pinning down Russian forces
The city held out for so long. Waves and waves of Russian soldiers – many of them conscripts and former prisoners – were sent against Ukrainian defences and again and again Bakhmut held.
It was a controversial decision to keep defending the city, and there were many in the West who argued it was a mistake, but in the end it allowed Ukraine to inflict huge casualties on Russia and allow Kyiv time to get hold of Western tanks.
Russian forces, in particular Wagner Group mercenaries who are no longer involved, took the city at great cost.
The ruins of Bakhmut
Bakhmut does not exist as a city in the way it did before. Months of constant shelling by Russian forces have raised it to the ground.
It has little strategic value, but as a propaganda piece it is huge for Vladimir Putin.
Now, Ukraine is gaining ground around it. Could Bakhmut be liberated?
Bell says: “Bakhmut is one of those iconic places and Russia made a big thing of taking it, lost tens of thousands of lives taking it and will not want to lose it again.
“Most of the reports are the Ukrainian progress rather than Russian, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any momentum at the moment.
“Ukrainian pressure there is all designed to fix Russian forces in place.”
Is Russia pushing back in Kharkiv?
One of the main efforts of Russian forces – apart from holding back Ukrainian advances – is trying to take territory in the northeast, near Kharkiv.
Ukraine had great success in that arena last year, carrying out stunning advances around Kharkiv city.
Not only did they buy valuable breathing space for the ‘Hero City’, they liberated swathes of territory, including Kupyansk and Izium.
Now Russian troops are seeking to reverse some of those gains.
“The lines of communication there are very short for the Russian forces,” Bell says.
This is because of how close things are to the Russian border. Unlike in other parts of Ukraine, it’s much easier for Russia to resupply and communicate with its troops in the Kharkiv region.
In recent weeks they have claimed to have made advances, and fighting has been fierce and bloody.
Bell adds: “Russia has not been effective at conducting offensive operations since the start of the war – and that was when they had mercenary support with the Wagner Group.
“So it’s no great surprise that the Russian military are struggling to make progress.”
Crossing the Dnipro while Russia is busy elsewhere
One of the least talked about areas of the frontline is the River Dnipro, near the city of Kherson.
When Ukrainian forces swept through the region and liberated the city last year, the water became the new boundary between them and Russian forces.
This, Bell says, is why Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam in June this year, sending torrents of water over the landscape.
Water flows over the collapsed Nova Kakhovka dam. Pic: AP
“By blowing the Kakhovka dam that basically said ‘right Ukraine you are not going to be able to cross the Dnipro and we are going to leave it relatively unprotected’.”
That may have been true a few months ago, but the land is starting to dry out, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine.
“It’s a lot more accessible now and almost certainly isn’t the Russians’ main focus,” Bell says.
“It leaves them vulnerable down that flank.”
There are even reports that Ukraine has managed to land troops on the other side of the Dnipro.
But while that is progress for Kyiv, it’s not the same as establishing a beachhead from which they can deploy tanks and heavy weapons.
Bell compared it to D-Day, when the Allies managed to establish control over a chunk of French beach in June 1944 and held it until they could get armour on the ground and push outwards.
But he added that the more Ukraine puts pressure on Russian forces there, the more Kremlin commanders will have to reckon with a difficult choice: weaken their forces elsewhere to shore up the Dnipro, or risk a breakthrough across the water…
Drones, explosives and raids on Crimea
While it’s not on the frontline, Ukraine has certainly brought the war to Crimea in recent months.
Wave after wave of maritime drones are harassing Russian ships in the area, the Kerch Bridge has been hit multiple times and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly struck on the peninsula itself.
Crimea is home to Vladimir Putin’s prized Black Sea Fleet and is of huge strategic value due to its location on the Black Sea.
It has been in Russian hands since it was annexed in 2014 but Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to return it to Ukraine.
Ukrainian sea drones have been used in Black Sea attacks
Still, it’s very heavily fortified and will be very difficult to capture by force. Indeed, in the Second World War the Axis forces led by Nazi Germany lost 30,000 men in pursuit of Crimea.
So why is Ukraine attacking it? Because putting aside the prospect of seizing the territory, it helps their forces elsewhere.
Bell says “Ukraine has made clear its intent to take it, and what that does is it forces Russia to keep forces back to protect it.”
Russia might have 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine, but if it puts them all on the frontline then there is no one to defend Crimea if Kyiv’s forces make a breakthrough.
“The more that Ukraine threatens Crimea, the more Russia has to protect it and take its forces away from the frontline.”
Pope Leo will lead his first holy mass as pontiff this morning – after already paying a surprise visit to see staff at his former residence.
Robert Prevost’s life changed forever on Thursday when he went from being one of 252 cardinals to the first-ever American pope.
His was chosen after just four rounds of voting in the Sistine Chapel – a conclave that lasted just 25 hours.
New pope unveiled to the world – as it happened
The 69-year-old Chicago-born cardinal was not seen as a frontrunner but quickly secured the required two-thirds majority.
There was jubilation in St Peter’s Square when white smoke emerged and about an hour later the Pope’s identity was revealed when he stepped onto the balcony.
The choice of Leo is the first time the name has been used since Leo XII – the pope from 1878 to 1903.
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Moment new pope emerges on balcony
People celebrated the new pope’s announcement in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
Sky News understands one of the first things the Pope did was greet staff at his former residence, Sant’Uffizio Palace, just outside the Vatican.
All eyes will now be on his first mass, when he and other cardinals return to the Sistine Chapel around 10am.
Pope Leo’s first words as leader of 1.4 billion Catholics on Thursday evening were “may peace be with all of you”.
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Conclave: How the last 48 hours unfolded
His balcony speech also paid tribute to his predecessor – who only made him cardinal two years ago and brought him from Peru for a senior Vatican role.
“The pope that blessed Rome gave his blessing to the whole world on that Easter morning. So let us follow up that blessing,” said Leo.
He also called for a “church that builds bridges” and is “able to receive everybody that needs our charity, our presence, dialogue and love”.
Read more:
Who is the new Pope?
What does the Pope’s name mean?
The Pope vs his predecessors
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Trump comments on first US pope
There has long been a taboo against a US pope – given the influence the country already has – but Leo was promoted as a “compromise candidate” ahead of conclave.
His many years as a missionary in Peru are also believed to have given him more universal appeal, especially among the cardinals from Central and South America.
President Donald Trump told reporters having an American in the role for the first time was a “great honour” – and Time magazine has already revealed its cover celebrating the moment.
However, the Pope appears to have taken issue with some of the Trump administration’s views and policies.
His X account posted a link in February to an article criticising comments by the vice president entitled: “JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others”.
In April, when President Trump met El Salvador’s leader about using a notorious prison for suspected US gang members, he shared another post stating: “Do you not see the suffering? Is your conscience not disturbed? How can you stay quiet?”
‘Pope played Wordle before conclave’
With many now waiting on the Pope’s next public comments, his brothers have revealed their surprise when they saw him emerge in the white robes on TV.
Eldest brother Louis Prevost told Sky’s US partner NBC News it was “mindblowing”.
“When the cardinal came out and started to read his name, as soon as he went “raw” I knew he was gonna say ‘Roberto’ – and he did – and I just freaked out.”
Mr Prevost added: “We’ve kind of known he was special, and we used to tease him about being pope when he was six years old and stuff.”
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The Pope’s other brother said he had been in contact with him before conclave and joked about watching the hit film of the same name.
“I said did you watch the movie Conclave so you know how to behave,” John Prevost told NBC News.
“And he had just finished watching the movie so knew how to behave; so it’s that kind of stuff because I wanted to take his mind off of it – because this is now an awesome responsibility.”
He also revealed the brothers had played online puzzles Wordle and Words with Friends to take the Pope’s mind off things in the run-up to the election.
The Vatican has announced the first ever US leader of the Catholic Church – Robert Prevost, who will be known as Pope Leo XIV.
The 69-year-old cardinal was born in Chicago and spent many years as a missionary in Peru.
Follow live updates: New pope elected
He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023 and appointed head of the dicastery for bishops, a powerful position responsible for selecting new bishops.
Significantly, he presided over one of Francis’s most revolutionary reforms when he added three women to the voting bloc which decides on the bishop nominations sent to the Pope.
Bishop Robert Prevost leading a celebration in Peru last August. Pic: AP
As cardinal, he said little on key issues of the church, but some of his positions are known.
He is reportedly very close to Francis’s vision regarding the environment, outreach to the poor and migrants. He said in 2024 “the bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom”.
He also supported Pope Francis’s stance on allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion.
However, he only showed mild support for Francis allowing priests to bless same-sex couples.
Cardinal Prevost being appointed by Francis in 2023. Pic: EPA/Shutterstock
Pope Leo has years of experience in leadership roles within the church.
He was twice elected to the top position of the Augustinian religious order and Francis clearly had an eye on his progress – moving him from the Augustinian leadership back to Peru in 2014, where he served as administrator and later archbishop of Chiclayo.
He acquired Peruvian citizenship in 2015 and remained in Chiclayo until 2023, when Francis brought him to Rome.
Pope Leo’s years in Peru made him a more universal candidate for the papacy. Pic: AP
While there has long been a taboo against a US pope – given the geopolitical power the US already wields – Leo was being promoted as a “compromise candidate” ahead of the conclave.
The amount of time he has spent in Peru also allowed him to be seen as a more universal candidate.
The world learned a new pope had been chosen at around 6.08pm local time (5.08pm UK time) on Thursday as white smoke suddenly emerged from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel.
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First US pope chosen
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New pope elected by conclave
The 133 cardinals sequestered in the chapel picked the new leader of the Catholic Church on the second day of the conclave.
As the smoke appeared, cheers went up in St Peter’s Square, where thousands of people had gathered in the hope of witnessing history.
Just over an hour later, the Pope was introduced on the central balcony of St Peter’s Basilica as a crowd of an estimated 50,000 people looked on.
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Pope Leo’s first address
Delivering an address from the balcony, Pope Leo – speaking in Italian – told the crowds: “Peace be with you all.”
He then thanked his predecessor and repeated Francis’s call for a church that is engaged with the modern world and “always looking for peace, charity and being close to people, especially those who are suffering”.
Newly-elected Pope Leo XIV appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican. Pic: Reuters
“Together we must try to find out how to be a church that builds bridges, establishes dialogue and is open to receiving everybody,” he said.
Speaking in Spanish, he added: “I would particularly like to say hello to my compatriots from Peru.
“It was a great pleasure for me to work in Peru.”
There is a long list of demands in the new pope’s in-tray, ranging from the position of women in the church to the ongoing fight against sexual abuse and restoring papal finances.
People both inside the Catholic Church and around the world will be watching how the new pontiff deals with them.
US Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was elected as the new pope on Thursday after just two days of conclave.
The 69-year-old, who becomes the first American pope, will take the name Leo XIV.
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‘Evil will not prevail, we are all in the hands of God’, the new American Pope told the crowd.
On Friday, Pope Leo will lead his first holy mass as pontiff after already paying a surprise visit to see staff at his former residence.
Here, Sky News Europe correspondent Siobhan Robbins takes an in-depth look at the challenges facing the new pontiff.
Sexual abuse
Many Catholic insiders credit Pope Francis with going further than any of his predecessors to address sexual abuse.
He gathered bishops together for a conference on the issue in 2019 and that led to a change that allows cooperating with civil courts if needed during abuse cases.
But it didn’t go as far as forcing the disclosure of all information gathered in relation to child abuse.
Any abuse allegations must now be referred to church leaders, but reformers stopped short of decreeing that such cases should also be automatically referred to the police.
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Clerical abuse victim says church still has ‘so much to do’
While many abuse victims agree they saw progress under Pope Francis, who spent a lot of time listening to their accounts, they say reforms didn’t go far enough.
The next pope will be under pressure to take strong action on the issue.
Newly-elected Pope Leo XIV appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican. Pic: Reuters
Women
Pope Francis also did more to promote women in the Vatican than any other pontiff.
Two years ago, he allowed women to vote in a significant meeting of bishops.
While he was clear he wanted women to have more opportunities, he resisted the idea that they needed to be part of the church hierarchy and didn’t change the rules on women being ordained.
A woman kneels at St. Peter’s Square, on the first day of the conclave to elect the new pope. Pic: Reuters
His successor will need to decide if they push this agenda forward or rein it back in.
It’s a pressing concern as women do a huge amount of the work in schools and hospitals, but many are frustrated about being treated as second-class citizens. 10,000 nuns a year have left in the decade from 2012 to 2022, according to Vatican figures.
Inclusion
“Who am I to judge?” Pope Francis famously said when asked about a gay monsignor in 2013.
His supporters say he sought to make the church more open, including allowing blessings for same sex couples but while critics argue he didn’t go far enough, some conservatives were outraged.
A gay couple kiss at a Catholic protest against the legalisation of gay marriage in Mexico. File pic: Reuters
African bishops collectively rejected blessings for same sex couples, saying “it would cause confusion and would be in direct contradiction to the cultural ethos of African communities”.
How welcome LGBTQ+ people feel in the church will depend partly on decisions made by the pontiff.
Conversely, the Pope must also bring together disparate groups within the Catholic faith.
Many are demanding a leader who can unite the various factions and bring stability in an increasingly unstable world.
The global south
While the Catholic church is losing members in its traditional base of Europe, it’s growing rapidly in the global south.
The area has become the new centre of gravity for Catholicism with huge followings in countries like Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines.
Pope Francis tried to expand representation by appointing more cardinals from different areas of the world, and the new Pope will be expected to continue this.
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Behind the scenes at the conclave
Finance
The Vatican is facing a serious financial crisis.
The budget deficit has tripled since Pope Francis’s election and the pension fund has a shortfall of up to €2bn (£1.7bn).
These money worries, which were compounded by COVID-19 and long-standing bureaucratic challenges, represent a major concern for the next pope.
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