When will Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia or send troops across the Dnipro river?
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now into its fourth month. Kyiv’s forces, bolstered by Western tanks and weapons, are putting pressure on Russian positions but have yet to achieve a major breakthrough.
But all across Ukraine, there is a sense that things could change very quickly. A section of defences could collapse, and fortunes could turn.
Sky News spoke to military expert Sean Bell about the different parts of the frontline and how each could be a flashpoint, from crossing the Dnipro in the west to the push to liberate Bakhmut in the east.
We’ve zeroed in on five locations and ask, is this where the war could be decided?
Can Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia?
The southern battle-zone in the Zaporizhzhia region is perhaps the most talked about part of the war at the moment.
Bell says this so-called land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas is “the least hard place” for Ukrainians to liberate the most territory.
Ukrainian forces are slowly but steadily pushing south but are coming up against defensive emplacements that Russia has spent months building.
Ukrainian soldiers near the frontline in Zaporizhzhia region
The Surovikin line, named after a Russian general, extends through the area, a triple layer of defences comprising an anti-tank ditch, dragons’ teeth obstacles and then defensive positions in trenches.
If Ukrainian forces are able to pierce through in Zaporizhzhia and reach the coast of the Sea of Azov – or at least get close enough to hit the remaining territory with artillery – it would effectively cut Russian forces in half.
“If they can break through all those defences then suddenly there could be a rout of Russian forces in that land bridge,” Bell says.
There has been evidence so far during the counteroffensive that Ukraine has been keeping much of its Western tanks and best-trained troops in reserve, waiting for a breakthrough somewhere along the line.
Now, it seems, some of these tanks are being sent in to fight in the battle for Zaporizhzhia.
“You are never sure what will be the chink that will break the dam, you will never know until the crack emerges and the floodgates open.
“The question is whether the Ukrainians then have the stamina and the morale and the equipment to take advantage of it.”
Encircling a ruined city – and pinning down Russian forces
The city held out for so long. Waves and waves of Russian soldiers – many of them conscripts and former prisoners – were sent against Ukrainian defences and again and again Bakhmut held.
It was a controversial decision to keep defending the city, and there were many in the West who argued it was a mistake, but in the end it allowed Ukraine to inflict huge casualties on Russia and allow Kyiv time to get hold of Western tanks.
Russian forces, in particular Wagner Group mercenaries who are no longer involved, took the city at great cost.
The ruins of Bakhmut
Bakhmut does not exist as a city in the way it did before. Months of constant shelling by Russian forces have raised it to the ground.
It has little strategic value, but as a propaganda piece it is huge for Vladimir Putin.
Now, Ukraine is gaining ground around it. Could Bakhmut be liberated?
Bell says: “Bakhmut is one of those iconic places and Russia made a big thing of taking it, lost tens of thousands of lives taking it and will not want to lose it again.
“Most of the reports are the Ukrainian progress rather than Russian, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any momentum at the moment.
“Ukrainian pressure there is all designed to fix Russian forces in place.”
Is Russia pushing back in Kharkiv?
One of the main efforts of Russian forces – apart from holding back Ukrainian advances – is trying to take territory in the northeast, near Kharkiv.
Ukraine had great success in that arena last year, carrying out stunning advances around Kharkiv city.
Not only did they buy valuable breathing space for the ‘Hero City’, they liberated swathes of territory, including Kupyansk and Izium.
Now Russian troops are seeking to reverse some of those gains.
“The lines of communication there are very short for the Russian forces,” Bell says.
This is because of how close things are to the Russian border. Unlike in other parts of Ukraine, it’s much easier for Russia to resupply and communicate with its troops in the Kharkiv region.
In recent weeks they have claimed to have made advances, and fighting has been fierce and bloody.
Bell adds: “Russia has not been effective at conducting offensive operations since the start of the war – and that was when they had mercenary support with the Wagner Group.
“So it’s no great surprise that the Russian military are struggling to make progress.”
Crossing the Dnipro while Russia is busy elsewhere
One of the least talked about areas of the frontline is the River Dnipro, near the city of Kherson.
When Ukrainian forces swept through the region and liberated the city last year, the water became the new boundary between them and Russian forces.
This, Bell says, is why Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam in June this year, sending torrents of water over the landscape.
Water flows over the collapsed Nova Kakhovka dam. Pic: AP
“By blowing the Kakhovka dam that basically said ‘right Ukraine you are not going to be able to cross the Dnipro and we are going to leave it relatively unprotected’.”
That may have been true a few months ago, but the land is starting to dry out, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine.
“It’s a lot more accessible now and almost certainly isn’t the Russians’ main focus,” Bell says.
“It leaves them vulnerable down that flank.”
There are even reports that Ukraine has managed to land troops on the other side of the Dnipro.
But while that is progress for Kyiv, it’s not the same as establishing a beachhead from which they can deploy tanks and heavy weapons.
Bell compared it to D-Day, when the Allies managed to establish control over a chunk of French beach in June 1944 and held it until they could get armour on the ground and push outwards.
But he added that the more Ukraine puts pressure on Russian forces there, the more Kremlin commanders will have to reckon with a difficult choice: weaken their forces elsewhere to shore up the Dnipro, or risk a breakthrough across the water…
Drones, explosives and raids on Crimea
While it’s not on the frontline, Ukraine has certainly brought the war to Crimea in recent months.
Wave after wave of maritime drones are harassing Russian ships in the area, the Kerch Bridge has been hit multiple times and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly struck on the peninsula itself.
Crimea is home to Vladimir Putin’s prized Black Sea Fleet and is of huge strategic value due to its location on the Black Sea.
It has been in Russian hands since it was annexed in 2014 but Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to return it to Ukraine.
Ukrainian sea drones have been used in Black Sea attacks
Still, it’s very heavily fortified and will be very difficult to capture by force. Indeed, in the Second World War the Axis forces led by Nazi Germany lost 30,000 men in pursuit of Crimea.
So why is Ukraine attacking it? Because putting aside the prospect of seizing the territory, it helps their forces elsewhere.
Bell says “Ukraine has made clear its intent to take it, and what that does is it forces Russia to keep forces back to protect it.”
Russia might have 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine, but if it puts them all on the frontline then there is no one to defend Crimea if Kyiv’s forces make a breakthrough.
“The more that Ukraine threatens Crimea, the more Russia has to protect it and take its forces away from the frontline.”
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, told NBC News that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
Dini von Mueffling, Giuffre’s representative, also told the outlet: “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims. She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words. It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
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Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘I am now a survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
World
Fighter jets, a naval destroyer and guns on show: The ‘unprecedented’ security operation for Pope’s funeral
As the line of mourners moves slowly along behind him, Ciriaco Sarnelli peers at me from beneath the immaculate brim of his cap.
The military police chief looks, by any standards, magnificent – shoulders back and proudly wearing the black uniform of the Carabinieri.
“Our history goes back more than 200 years,” he says. “We remember our past, and our place. The only people with black uniforms are the priests, the judges and the Carabinieri.”
He leaves the rest unsaid – the Carabinieri sit at the heart of Italian cultural life.
Ciriaco Sarnelli, Carabinieri military police chief
Pope latest: Security ramping up ahead of funeral
Once, they defended the borders of a young nation. Now, they have a new challenge that has its own weighty burden – to keep St Peter’s Square safe during the funeral of Pope Francis.
This is no easy task. Hundreds of thousands will descend upon the Vatican for the event.
Many of the world’s best-known politicians and dignitaries will be welcomed into St Peter’s Basilica.
Inside will be Donald Trump, Sir Keir Starmer, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Prince William and dozens upon dozens of other dignitaries.
Outside will be the Carabinieri.
They won’t be alone – there are thousands of other police officers due to be assigned to protect the event – but the Carabinieri are affiliated to the military; the most highly-trained officers on duty.
Read more:
How Pope Francis’s funeral will unfold
Pope’s doctor reveals pontiff’s last regret
A member of the security personnel wields an anti-drone gun for the Pope’s funeral
“This is an extraordinary operation,” says Sarnelli, as we look out over the crowd. “So we have employed some special units that belong to Carabinieri – the bomb squad, a dogs unit, snipers and helicopters. We want to assure the people who are arriving here that they can take part in this event in the best way, in a secure way.”
He says they are ready for “common crimes” – like pickpockets in the crowd – but also “the biggest, terrifying events”.
He says there is “excellent coordination” with police forces from other countries.
Around him, his officers are smiling, chatting to tourists and Romans alike.
The security here is overt but friendly, even if I’m told there are also plenty of plain-clothed officers mingling within the crowd.
Guns and grins both on show.
A police helicopter circles above. In the port of Rome, a naval destroyer has been primed for action; there are fighter jets ready to take off.
You can watch full coverage of the funeral live on Sky News on Saturday
Huge crowds have come from around the world to see the Pope’s body
If the impression is relaxed, the reality is different. The classic swan.
All the strands are pulled together from one place and, what’s more, it offers a perfect view of Vatican City.
From where I’m standing, I can see the front of St Peter’s Basilica, the side, and the roads around it. I can see the crowds coming in, and the crowds going out.
And I can see an anxious policeman drumming his fingers.
But we are not in St Peter’s and not even in the Vatican.
This is the high-security control room on the fifth floor of Rome’s police headquarters.
And from here, you can see everything.
The control room from where security officials can see across the Italian capital
An array of screens are in front of us and, watching them, men and women, huddled over screens and all wearing contrasting uniforms.
Some are military, some national police, some wear the clothes of firefighters. A few are in plain clothes and there is even a man wearing the badge of the prison officers’ service.
This centre is a hub for collaboration and decision-making and it brings together every service that is involved in ensuring the safety and security of the funeral.
There is a Carabinieri officer here, as well as the Guardia di Finanza national police and the Roman force. The government’s secret intelligence service is represented here, too.
Elisabetta Accardo is from Rome’s police department. We talk against the gentle hubbub in the control room, colleagues pointing at screens and agreeing plans.
Elisabetta Accardo, Rome Police control room spokeswoman
I ask when Italy last had to deal with a security operation on this scale, and she laughs. “Hundreds of years,” she says.
“It is unprecedented. The level of security is at the maximum.” She describes the plan as “structured three-dimensional security”.
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It is a plan that has been long in the making, but which has been reshaped over the past few days to react to the whims of the Pope’s final wishes.
It is, after all, more than a century since a pope was buried outside the walls of the Vatican.
You get the impression that the people designing the security plan could rather have done without having to add an hour-long procession through Rome into the plan.
But so be it.
By Saturday night, it will be done. Rome can start to get back to normal; the foreign leaders will be on their way home.
And the Rome police will breathe just a little bit easier.
World
Kremlin blames Ukraine for car bomb killing of Russian general near Moscow – as Trump envoy meets Putin
The Kremlin has blamed Ukraine for a car bomb that killed a Russian general near Moscow hours before Donald Trump’s envoy was due to meet Vladimir Putin in the capital.
The death of Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik is the second such fatal attack on a top Russian military officer in four months.
Russia’s top criminal investigation agency said he was killed by an explosive device placed in his car in Balashikha, just outside the capital.
Follow the latest updates on the Ukraine war
Yaroslav Moskalik. Pic: Russian Ministry of Defence
Moskalik was a deputy head of the main operational department in the General Staff of the Russian armed forces.
“The Kyiv regime once again simply shows its true nature. The Kyiv regime continues to be involved in terrorist activity on the territory of our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
He didn’t offer any evidence.
“It shows once again that, despite the peace talks, we must be on guard and understand the nature of this regime.”
Ukraine has not responded to the killing.
Investigators work at the scene where Lt Gen Yaroslav Moskalik was killed. Pic: AP
Investigative committee spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko said the explosive device was rigged with shrapnel, adding that investigators were at the scene.
Videos showed a vehicle burning in the courtyard of an apartment building and a body covered in a sheet could be seen on the pavement nearby.
It comes after Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov was killed in December when a bomb hidden on an electric scooter parked outside his apartment building exploded as he left for his office.
Russian authorities blamed Ukraine for the killing of Kirillov, and Ukraine’s security agency acknowledged that it was behind that attack.
Kirillov was the chief of Russia’s radiation, biological and chemical protection forces, the special troops tasked with protecting the military from the enemy’s use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and ensuring operations in a contaminated environment.
His assistant also died in the attack.
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Talks bring Russia and US ‘closer together’
Friday’s bombing came as Mr Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met Mr Putin in Moscow to discuss a US-brokered peace plan for Ukraine.
The talks allowed Russia and the United States to “further bring their positions closer together” on “a number of international issues”, a Kremlin aide said.
The two sides discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine”, Yuri Ushakov said.
The talks in Moscow lasted for three hours and were “constructive and useful”, he added.
Speaking on a flight to Italy for the Pope’s funeral, the US president said he hadn’t been fully briefed on Mr Witkoff and Mr Putin’s meeting – but added it was a “pretty good meeting”.
The meeting was their fourth encounter since February.
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
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