When will Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia or send troops across the Dnipro river?

Published

12 months ago

September 16, 2023

admin

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now into its fourth month. Kyiv’s forces, bolstered by Western tanks and weapons, are putting pressure on Russian positions but have yet to achieve a major breakthrough.

But all across Ukraine, there is a sense that things could change very quickly. A section of defences could collapse, and fortunes could turn.

Sky News spoke to military expert Sean Bell about the different parts of the frontline and how each could be a flashpoint, from crossing the Dnipro in the west to the push to liberate Bakhmut in the east.

We’ve zeroed in on five locations and ask, is this where the war could be decided?

Can Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia?

The southern battle-zone in the Zaporizhzhia region is perhaps the most talked about part of the war at the moment.

Bell says this so-called land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas is “the least hard place” for Ukrainians to liberate the most territory.

Ukrainian forces are slowly but steadily pushing south but are coming up against defensive emplacements that Russia has spent months building.

The Surovikin line, named after a Russian general, extends through the area, a triple layer of defences comprising an anti-tank ditch, dragons’ teeth obstacles and then defensive positions in trenches.

If Ukrainian forces are able to pierce through in Zaporizhzhia and reach the coast of the Sea of Azov – or at least get close enough to hit the remaining territory with artillery – it would effectively cut Russian forces in half.

“If they can break through all those defences then suddenly there could be a rout of Russian forces in that land bridge,” Bell says.

There has been evidence so far during the counteroffensive that Ukraine has been keeping much of its Western tanks and best-trained troops in reserve, waiting for a breakthrough somewhere along the line.

Now, it seems, some of these tanks are being sent in to fight in the battle for Zaporizhzhia.

“You are never sure what will be the chink that will break the dam, you will never know until the crack emerges and the floodgates open.

“The question is whether the Ukrainians then have the stamina and the morale and the equipment to take advantage of it.”

Encircling a ruined city – and pinning down Russian forces

The city held out for so long. Waves and waves of Russian soldiers – many of them conscripts and former prisoners – were sent against Ukrainian defences and again and again Bakhmut held.

It was a controversial decision to keep defending the city, and there were many in the West who argued it was a mistake, but in the end it allowed Ukraine to inflict huge casualties on Russia and allow Kyiv time to get hold of Western tanks.

Russian forces, in particular Wagner Group mercenaries who are no longer involved, took the city at great cost.

Bakhmut does not exist as a city in the way it did before. Months of constant shelling by Russian forces have raised it to the ground.

It has little strategic value, but as a propaganda piece it is huge for Vladimir Putin.

Now, Ukraine is gaining ground around it. Could Bakhmut be liberated?

Bell says: “Bakhmut is one of those iconic places and Russia made a big thing of taking it, lost tens of thousands of lives taking it and will not want to lose it again.

“Most of the reports are the Ukrainian progress rather than Russian, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any momentum at the moment.

“Ukrainian pressure there is all designed to fix Russian forces in place.”

Is Russia pushing back in Kharkiv?

One of the main efforts of Russian forces – apart from holding back Ukrainian advances – is trying to take territory in the northeast, near Kharkiv.

Ukraine had great success in that arena last year, carrying out stunning advances around Kharkiv city.

Not only did they buy valuable breathing space for the ‘Hero City’, they liberated swathes of territory, including Kupyansk and Izium.

Now Russian troops are seeking to reverse some of those gains.

“The lines of communication there are very short for the Russian forces,” Bell says.

This is because of how close things are to the Russian border. Unlike in other parts of Ukraine, it’s much easier for Russia to resupply and communicate with its troops in the Kharkiv region.

In recent weeks they have claimed to have made advances, and fighting has been fierce and bloody.

Bell adds: “Russia has not been effective at conducting offensive operations since the start of the war – and that was when they had mercenary support with the Wagner Group.

“So it’s no great surprise that the Russian military are struggling to make progress.”

Crossing the Dnipro while Russia is busy elsewhere

One of the least talked about areas of the frontline is the River Dnipro, near the city of Kherson.

When Ukrainian forces swept through the region and liberated the city last year, the water became the new boundary between them and Russian forces.

This, Bell says, is why Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam in June this year, sending torrents of water over the landscape.

“By blowing the Kakhovka dam that basically said ‘right Ukraine you are not going to be able to cross the Dnipro and we are going to leave it relatively unprotected’.”

That may have been true a few months ago, but the land is starting to dry out, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine.

“It’s a lot more accessible now and almost certainly isn’t the Russians’ main focus,” Bell says.

“It leaves them vulnerable down that flank.”

There are even reports that Ukraine has managed to land troops on the other side of the Dnipro.

But while that is progress for Kyiv, it’s not the same as establishing a beachhead from which they can deploy tanks and heavy weapons.

Bell compared it to D-Day, when the Allies managed to establish control over a chunk of French beach in June 1944 and held it until they could get armour on the ground and push outwards.

But he added that the more Ukraine puts pressure on Russian forces there, the more Kremlin commanders will have to reckon with a difficult choice: weaken their forces elsewhere to shore up the Dnipro, or risk a breakthrough across the water…

Drones, explosives and raids on Crimea

While it’s not on the frontline, Ukraine has certainly brought the war to Crimea in recent months.

Wave after wave of maritime drones are harassing Russian ships in the area, the Kerch Bridge has been hit multiple times and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly struck on the peninsula itself.

Crimea is home to Vladimir Putin’s prized Black Sea Fleet and is of huge strategic value due to its location on the Black Sea.

It has been in Russian hands since it was annexed in 2014 but Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to return it to Ukraine.

Still, it’s very heavily fortified and will be very difficult to capture by force. Indeed, in the Second World War the Axis forces led by Nazi Germany lost 30,000 men in pursuit of Crimea.

So why is Ukraine attacking it? Because putting aside the prospect of seizing the territory, it helps their forces elsewhere.

Bell says “Ukraine has made clear its intent to take it, and what that does is it forces Russia to keep forces back to protect it.”

Russia might have 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine, but if it puts them all on the frontline then there is no one to defend Crimea if Kyiv’s forces make a breakthrough.

“The more that Ukraine threatens Crimea, the more Russia has to protect it and take its forces away from the frontline.”

World

Keir Starmer talks up US-UK relationship – but questions remain over Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles

Published

25 mins ago

September 14, 2024

admin

Keir Starmer talks up US-UK relationship - but questions remain over Ukraine's use of long-range missiles

Sir Keir Starmer has talked up the US-UK relationship after a White House meeting with Joe Biden, but questions remain over Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles.

The prime minister travelled to Washington this week to meet with President Biden to discuss the wars in Ukraine and Gaza – among other issues.

Speaking before the “long and productive” meeting held in the White House on Friday, Sir Keir said the two countries were “strategically aligned” in their attempts to resolve the war.

Afterwards, he skirted around questions regarding Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, saying: “We’ve had a long and productive discussion on a number of problems, including Ukraine, as you’d expect, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, talking strategically about tactical decisions.

“This isn’t about a particular decision but we’ll obviously pick up again in UNGA (UN General Assembly) in just a few days’ time with a wider group of individuals, but this was a really important invitation from the president to have this level of discussion about those critical issues.”

Ukraine war latest: Putin threatens NATO with ‘war’

Decisions loom for Ukraine’s key Western allies as Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently increased pressure on them to permit his forces to use long-range missiles to strike inside Russian territory.

However, despite repeated calls for a decision, the West has so far resisted green-lighting the use of the missiles.

Two US officials familiar with the discussions said they believed that Sir Keir was seeking US approval to let Ukraine use British Storm Shadow missiles for expanded strikes into Russia, according to Reuters news agency.

They added that they believed Mr Biden would be amenable.

The president’s approval would be needed because Storm Shadow components are made in the US.

But when speaking to journalists after the meeting, Sir Keir was repeatedly pressed on the long-range missile question but evaded giving a firm decision.

“This wasn’t a meeting about a particular capability. That wasn’t why we got our heads down today,” he said.

The US has been concerned that any step could lead to an escalation in the conflict and has moved cautiously so far, however, there have been reports in recent days that Mr Biden might shift his administration’s policy.

It wasn’t much, but it’s a start

There wasn’t much to say at the end, but it’s a start.

Both sides in these discussions had spent some time playing down expectations and the Americans were insistent their stance wasn’t changing on Ukraine and long-range missiles.

“Nothing to see here” seemed to be the message.

Only, there clearly was – a glance at the headlines gave that the lie.

It’s not every day a Russian president threatens war with the West.

The UK and US were discussing a change in strategy because they must – anything less would be a dereliction of duty for two leaders pledging a commitment to Ukraine’s fight.

Just ask Kyiv’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Following the meeting, Sir Keir Starmer said they’d talked tactics and strategy.

It will have had missiles, range, and Russian territory at the heart of it.

That is the material change in strategy demanded by Ukraine and supported widely among its backers.

A plan discussed by both sides of the special relationship will now be floated to other, allied nations in an effort to build a coordinated coalition behind a change in strategy.

And they’ll do it against the clock.

There is the unpredictability of the war itself in Ukraine and no less certainty surrounding the political battle at home.

A Trump victory in November’s US election would change the picture – here and there.

Vladimir Putin previously threatened the West, warning that allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike inside Russian territory would put Moscow “at war” with NATO.

Speaking to Russian state television, he insisted the decision would “significantly change” the nature of the war.

He added: “This will be their direct participation, and this, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.

“This will mean that NATO countries, US, European countries are at war with Russia.

“If this is so, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us.”

When asked about the threats, Mr Biden brushed them aside, saying: “I don’t think much about Vladimir Putin.”

There remains some scepticism within the US over the impact that allowing Kyiv to unleash long-range missiles would have.

US officials, according to Reuters, have pointed out that Ukraine already has the capability to strike into Russia using drones, and while US missiles would enhance that they are too costly and limited in number to change the overall picture.

World

British citizen among 37 people sentenced to death in DR Congo over failed coup

Published

3 hours ago

September 14, 2024

admin

British citizen among 37 people sentenced to death in DR Congo over failed coup

A British citizen is among 37 people who have been sentenced to death in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after being found guilty of an attempted coup in the central African country.

A foreign office spokesperson told Sky News they are giving consular assistance to “a British man detained in DRC” and are in contact with the local authorities.

“We have made representations about the use of the death penalty to the DRC at the highest levels, and we will continue to do so.”

Three US citizens, a Belgian and a Canadian were also among those sentenced, along with several Congolese.

Judge Major Freddy Ehuma, speaking at an open-air military court in Kinshasa that was broadcast live on television, said they had been given “the harshest penalty, that of death”.

The defendants have five days to appeal their verdicts after being convicted on charges that included terrorism, murder and criminal association.

Fourteen people were acquitted in the trial, which opened in June.

Six people were killed during the attempted coup in May, which was led by Christian Malanga, a little-known opposition figure.

The rebels occupied DRC President Felix Tshisekedi’s office in the presidential palace for almost an hour before they were arrested, mediacongo.net said.

Mr Malanga was fatally shot while resisting arrest soon after live-streaming the attack on his social media, the Congolese army said.

Mr Malanga’s 21-year-old son, Marcel, who is a US citizen, was convicted, along with fellow Americans, Tyler Thompson Jr and Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun.

Marcel Malanga’s mother Brittney Sawyer has said her son is innocent and was simply following his father, who believed himself to be president of a shadow government in exile.

Mr Thompson Jr flew from Utah with Mr Malanga for what his family believed was a holiday. Mr Zalman-Polun, 36, is reported to have known Christian Malanga through a gold mining company set up in Mozambique in 2022.

Mr Thompson Jr’s family said he didn’t know what Christian Malanga was scheming and wasn’t even planning to enter the DRC.

The British citizen has not been named.

Earlier this year, the DRC reinstated the death penalty after more than 20 years amid growing violence and militant attacks.

Despite that, Richard Bondo, the lawyer who defended the six foreigners, said he disputed whether the death penalty could be imposed and said his clients had inadequate interpreters during the investigation.

He said they would appeal.

World

Stranded astronauts say space is ‘happy place’ – but admit ‘tough times’

Published

3 hours ago

September 14, 2024

admin

Stranded astronauts say space is 'happy place' - but admit 'tough times'

Two astronauts who are set to be stuck in space for eight months have said the International Space Station is now their “happy place” but admitted to “tough times”.

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams said in a press conference on Friday that it was hard to watch their Boeing Starliner capsule return to Earth without them last week – but said they do not feel let down by the company.

The pair expected to be in space for eight days but will remain there until 2025 after NASA determined the problem-plagued capsule posed too much risk for them to return to Earth.

The two Starliner test pilots – both retired Navy captains and longtime NASA astronauts – will now be staying at the space station until late February.

“That’s how it goes in this business,” said Ms Williams, adding that “you have to turn the page and look at the next opportunity”.

Mr Wilmore said: “It’s been quite an evolution over the last three months, we’ve been involved from the beginning through all the processes of assessing our spacecraft.

“And it was trying at times. There were some tough times all the way through.”

Ms Williams said that the transition to station life was “not that hard” since both had completed previous stints there.

“This is my happy place. I love being up here in space,” she said.

Mr Wilmore said he was “on board” with “changes that need to be made” at Boeing.

“Obviously, when you have issues like we’ve had, there’s some changes that need to be made.

“Boeing’s on board with that. We’re all on board with that.”

He added: “When you push the edge of the envelope again and you do things with spacecraft that have never been done before, just like Starliner, you’re going to find some things.”

The pair also said they will vote in November’s US elections.

Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams are now fully-fledged station crew members, chipping in on routine maintenance and experiments.

They, along with seven others on board, welcomed a Soyuz spacecraft carrying two Russians and an American earlier this week, raising the station population to 12 – a near record.

Ms Williams will soon take over as station commander.

The pair will have to wait until next year for a SpaceX capsule to bring them back to Earth. That spacecraft is due to launch later this month with a reduced crew of two, with two empty seats for the stranded astronauts for the return leg.

Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams also said they appreciated all the prayers and well wishes from Earth.

Mr Wilmore revealed he will miss out on family milestones including his youngest daughter’s final year of high school.

Their Starliner capsule marked the first Boeing spaceflight with astronauts. It endured a series of thruster failures and helium leaks before arriving at the space station on 6 June.

It landed safely in the New Mexico desert earlier this month, but Boeing’s path forward in NASA’s commercial crew programme remains uncertain.

The space agency hired SpaceX and Boeing as an orbital taxi service a decade ago after the shuttles retired. SpaceX has been flying astronauts since 2020.