It’s worth saying at the outset that not everything that went wrong last autumn – with Britain’s financial markets plunged into chaos and the pound sliding to the lowest level ever against the US dollar – can be laid at the door of Liz Truss.
There were plenty of other explanations for why the UK was vulnerable to a financial shock.
Most glaringly of all, the Bank of England was in the process of reversing quantitative easing, its epic bond-buying scheme. Financial markets were being asked, all of a sudden, to buy an extra slug of the government bonds they sold to the Bank years ago. It was a recipe for indigestion.
The economy was still recovering from the pandemic, from lockdowns and the supply chain disruption that ensued.
The public finances were in a particularly weak position, with the national debt having rocketed higher to finance the furlough scheme.
Much of the economic data at that point suggested the UK was worse hit than any other major economy and the pound was already sagging, dropping against the US dollar from early 2022.
Britain, in other words, looked vulnerable. There were bombs buried throughout financial markets. But here’s where things get less flattering for the former PM because there’s little doubt that what pushed the UK over the edge was the behaviour of Ms Truss and her team.
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You can see as much when you look at various metrics of financial stress, from the strength of the pound to the height of government bond yields to the credit default rates which signal how likely the UK is to default on its debts.
All of them peaked in the days after the mini-budget. And all of them dropped back down again as it became clear the prime minister was going to resign. The pound has recovered and the main explanation behind higher government bond yields is not credibility but rising interest rates.
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0:50
Truss ‘tried to fatten and slaughter the pig’
Ms Truss acknowledged her part in this on Monday when she said “it is certainly true that I didn’t just try to fatten the pig on market day; I tried to rear the pig and slaughter it as well. I confess to that.”
However, this is not an incidental problem. This was the major problem at the time. Markets were not passing judgement on the intricacies of the mini-budget and its various measures. They were making a bigger, simpler statement: we don’t trust you.
The problem wasn’t the Truss plan for growth, it was the ham-fisted nature of the way she was going about it. At a time when the UK (like many developed economies) was on the financial precipice, this tipped the country over the edge.
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In one sense, those on the right of the Tory party should be reassured by such a verdict. What happened last autumn shouldn’t end the long-running debates over what we should do with taxes. It shouldn’t end the conversation about how to boost economic growth.
Indeed, Britain still faces many of the same issues it did last year: weak growth, high current account and budget deficits, a wayward set of economic policies and some big question marks about monetary policy.
Markets weren’t casing a verdict on all that stuff. It’s far more simple than that. They lost faith in the government. It squandered its credibility and for a few weeks we danced on the edge of crisis.
Then Liz Truss left office and the credibility crisis ended. Time to move on.
The UK economy shrank more than expected in April as the worst of President Trump’s tariffs hit.
The standard measure of economic output (GDP) contracted a sharp 0.3% in April, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.
During the month, Mr Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” applied steep tariffs to countries around the world and sparked a trade war with China, the world’s second-largest economy.
The outcome is worse than expected by economists. A contraction of just 0.1% had been forecast by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.
It’s also bad news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has made the push for economic growth her number one priority. Speaking to Sky News following the news, she described the figures as “disappointing”.
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12:55
Reeves refuses to rule out tax rises
Additional costs on businesses were also levied during the month, as higher minimum wages and employer national insurance contributions took effect, which businesses told the ONS played a part in their performance.
Why?
The biggest part of the economy, the services sector, contracted by 0.4%, and manufacturing dropped 0.9%.
There was the largest ever monthly fall in goods exported to the United States, the ONS said.
Decreases were seen across most types of goods due to tariffs, it added.
Higher stamp duty depressed house buying and meant legal and real estate firms fared badly in the month.
After a strong showing in the first three months, car manufacturing performed poorly.
Rachel Reeves is setting out her spending review in the House of Commons.
It outlines how much funding individual government departments will receive over the next three years and state infrastructure investment for the next four years.
The last spending review took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, and before that, in 2015.
Here’s what’s been announced so far – please refresh this page for updates.
Defence
A major recipient of funds is the Ministry of Defence. Defence spending will rise from 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 2.6% by 2027. An £11bn uplift and a £600 million uplift for security and intelligence agencies.
Within that there’ll be £4.5bn of investment in munitions made in Glasgow and more than £6bn to upgrade to nuclear submarine production.
Border security
The chancellor goes onto border security, where she says funding will increase with up to £280m more per year by the end of the spending review for the new Border Security Command.
She said the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will end the costly use of hotels to house asylum seekers by 2029.
The chancellor says funding she has announced today, including from the transformation fund, will also cut the asylum backlog, see more appeal cases heard and “return people who have no right to be here”.
This will save the taxpayer £1bn a year, she says.
Energy
The biggest nuclear building programme for half a century has been announced with £14.2bn being poured into the Sizewell C nuclear power station on the Suffolk coastline.
A total of £14bn will go to the Sizewell C nuclear power plant. Another £2.5bn will be invested in a new small modular reactor programme.
A commitment to nuclear was reiterated, with £30bn allocated.
Science and technology
Moving on from energy and infrastructure, the chancellor says she wants the country’s high tech industries in Britain to continue to lead the world in the years to come.
Research and development funding will go to a record high of £22bn a year by the end of the spending period.
The government’s artificial intelligence action plan will receive £2bn.
Housing
Government funding of social and affordable housing has been allocated £39bn – which she called the “biggest cash injection into social housing in 50 years”.
She says she is providing an additional £10bn for financial investments, including to be delivered through Homes England, to help unlock hundreds of thousands more homes.
Transport
The chancellor announced £15bn for new rail, tram and bus networks across the West Midlands and the North. She’s also green-lit a new rail line between Liverpool and Manchester.
The chancellor will unveil the spending review at lunchtime – with plans to invest billions of pounds across the UK.
However, Rachel Reeves will admit that “too many people” are yet to feel the benefits of the government’s work so far.
In the House of Commons, she will confirm the budgets for each government department over the next three years – with boosts expected for schools, defence and the NHS.
Ms Reeves will vow to spend vast sums of money across the country to “ensure that renewal is felt in people’s everyday lives, their jobs, their communities”.
She is also pledging to set out “reforms that will guarantee towns and cities outside London and the South East can benefit from new investment”.
Image: Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the government’s spending plans for the next three years. Pic: Reuters
Ms Reeves is expected to say: “This government is renewing Britain. But I know too many people in too many parts of the country are yet to feel it.
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“This government’s task – my task – and the purpose of this spending review – is to change that … So that people can see a doctor when they need one. Know that they are secure at work. And feel safe on their local high street.
“The priorities in this spending review are the priorities of working people. To invest in our country’s security, health and economy so working people all over our country are better off.”
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3:56
What to expect from the spending review
Watch live coverage of the spending review on Sky News from 12pm
Ms Reeves will formally confirm “the biggest-ever local transport infrastructure investment in England’s city regions” – worth £15.6bn – as well as £86bn to “boost science and technology”, including by building the Sizewell C nuclear power station.
She will also announce the extension of the £3 cap on bus fares, Sky News understands. The cap – which Labour lifted from £2 – was due to expire at the end of this year.
Meanwhile, £39bn for a new Affordable Homes Programme over the next 10 years is set to be unveiled, with the government seeking to ramp up housebuilding to hit its manifesto pledge of 1.5 million new homes by the end of this parliament.
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10:28
‘You are everyone’s worst enemy’
The chancellor will argue: “The choices in this spending review are possible only because of the stability I have introduced and the choices I took in the autumn.”
One of those choices included cutting the winter fuel allowance for almost all pensioners – a decision the government has now U-turned on at a cost of £1.25bn. However, she is not expected to explain where that money will come from until the budget this autumn.
Ms Reeves will tell MPs: “I have made my choices. In place of chaos, I choose stability. In place of decline, I choose investment. In place of retreat, I choose national renewal.
“These are my choices. These are this government’s choices. These are the British people’s choices.”
But shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said this will be “the ‘spend today, tax tomorrow’ spending review” – arguing that the government is “spending money it doesn’t have, with no credible plan to pay for it”.
He said in a statement: “Rachel Reeves talks about ‘hard choices’ – but her real choice has been to take the easy road. Spend more, borrow more, and cross her fingers. This spending review won’t be a plan for the future – it will be a dangerous gamble with Britain’s economic stability.”
He went on: “Today, we’ll hear slogans, spin and self-congratulation – but not the truth. Don’t be fooled. Behind the spin lies a dangerous economic gamble that risks the country’s financial future.”