A man check his phone near an Apple logo outside its store in Shanghai, China September 13, 2023.
Aly Song | Reuters
Apple is facing a number of issues in China, with geopolitical risks mounting and the economy still not firing as many would have hoped.
But the biggest challenge of all, according to analysts, could be a resurgent Huawei after a purported major semiconductor breakthrough that flew in the face of U.S. sanctions.
The latest chip, made by China’s biggest semiconductor manufacturer SMIC, has sparked concern in Washington and raised questions about how it was possible, without the company being able to access critical technologies.
But there is also scrutiny on whether the process being used to make these new chips is efficient enough on a large scale to sustain a Huawei comeback.
What has happened to Huawei so far?
What’s the big deal about Huawei’s new chip?
Alongside Apple and Samsung, Huawei is one of only a few companies that has designed its own smartphone processor. This was done through the Chinese firm’s HiSilicon division.
The chip however was manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC. U.S. export restrictions, which effectively barred Huawei from using American technology anywhere along the chipmaking process, meant the Chinese company could no longer source its chips from TSMC.
The Taiwanese chipmaker is the most advanced semiconductor manufacturer in the world. There is no Chinese company that can do what TSMC does. That’s why shockwaves were sent through the political and tech world when Huawei quietly released the Mate 60 Pro in China this month, with analysis showing a chip inside made by SMIC.
Along with Huawei, SMIC is on a U.S. trade blacklist called the Entity List. Companies on this list are restricted from buying American technology. Meanwhile, SMIC’s technology is seen as generations behinds the likes of TSMC.
So how could this have been done with the huge amount of sanctions on both Huawei and SMIC?
What we know about Huawei’s chip
Huawei’s smartphone chip is called the Kirin 9000S, which combines the processor and components for what appears to be 5G connectivity. 5G refers to next-generation mobile internet that promises super-fast speeds. Huawei has not confirmed the phone is 5G capable, but reviews have shown the device is capable of hitting download speeds associated with 5G.
The semiconductor has been manufactured using a 7 nanometer process by SMIC, China’s biggest contract chipmaker, according to an analysis of the Mate 60 Pro by software company TechInsights.
The nanometer figure refers to the size of each individual transistor on a chip. The smaller the transistor, the more of them can be packed onto a single semiconductor. Typically, a reduction in nanometer size can yield more powerful and efficient chips.
The 7nm process is seen as highly-advanced in the world of semiconductors, even though it is not the latest technology.
For years, SMIC struggled to make 7nm chips. That’s in part because it couldn’t get its hands on a very expensive piece of kit called an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine. These are made by Dutch firm ASML, but the company has been restricted by its government from sending these machines to China.
In a blogpost this month, Dan Hutcheson, vice chair of TechInsights, said the 7nm chip “demonstrates the technical progress China’s semiconductor industry has been able to make without EUV lithography tools.”
Huawei was not immediately available for comment regarding this story when contacted by CNBC.
Is this a big deal or just posturing?
From a technology perspective, it is significant that SMIC has manufactured chips using a 7nm process without ASML’s EUV machines.
Pranay Kotasthane, deputy director of the Takshashila Institution, told CNBC that it is likely that equipment used for older manufacturing processes are being “repurposed” for these more advanced chips. But he believes the process is likely being undertaken with “lower efficiency” than if SMIC were to use cutting-edge equipment.
And that’s a key point. While SMIC is able to create 7nm chips, it’s unclear how efficient, profitable and sustainable that is on a bigger scale. A closely watched metric is “yield” — the number of chips made out of a specific wafer.
If a chip manufacturer’s yield is low, then the process is not seen as efficient and can be costly. While the yield of SMIC’s 7nm process for Huawei chips is not known, it is “probably low,” Kotasthane said.
It is a waiting game to see if SMIC can produce the number of chips that Huawei requires at a profitable scale.
SMIC’s 7nm manufacturing process has also exposed some of the weaknesses in the U.S.’s export restriction strategy, which could lead to further curbs.
“There will be pressure on the U.S. to reconsider its export controls strategy, which was based on the assumption that controls would prevent Chinese companies from producing advanced-edge chips, while the business-as-usual approach would continue at the trailing-edge nodes. It is increasingly becoming clear that this distinction doesn’t work in reality,” Kotasthane said.
He added that Washington may look at other areas of the chip design and manufacturing process to enact further restrictions.
Apple’s China headwinds grow with Huawei chip
The Wall Street Journal reported this month that Chinese central government staffers had been banned from using iPhones and other foreign branded phones for work and even prohibited them from being brought into the office.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said last week there weren’t any regulations prohibiting the purchase and use of foreign phones.
As geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China continue to bubble under the surface, it is perhaps a potential Huawei resurgence that poses the biggest threat to Apple.
“It’s expected that Huawei will pose a bigger challenge to Apple in China than the geopolitical issue,” Will Wong, a senior research manager at IDC, told CNBC.
“This is because Huawei not only has the same premium brand image as Apple but also is a national pride in China.”
Apple is seen as a high-end smartphone maker and Huawei had directly competed with the U.S. firm in China for years. But Huawei’s sales fell off a cliff when it couldn’t equip its smartphones with 5G technology and the latest chips.
Any kind of resurgence in this area, as appears to be the case with the Mate 60 Pro, could make Huawei’s new phones an attractive option again for Chinese buyers.
“The biggest threat from Huawei is its continuous development in technology, not only in chips but also in new form factors like foldables,” Wong added.
Shares of The Trade Desk plummeted almost 40% on Friday and headed for their worst day on record after the ad-tech company announced the departure of its CFO and analysts expressed concerns about rising competition from Amazon.
The Trade Desk, which went public in 2016, suffered its steepest prior drop in February, when the shares fell 33% on a revenue miss. In its second-quarter earnings report late Thursday, the company beat expectations on earnings and revenue, but the results failed to impress investors.
The Trade Desk, which specializes in providing technology to companies that want to target users across the web, said finance chief Laura Schenkein is leaving the job and being replaced by Alex Kayyal, who has been working as a partner at Lightspeed Ventures.
While some analysts were uneasy about the sudden change in the top finance role, the bigger concern is Amazon’s growing role in the online ad market, as well as the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on ad spending.
Amazon has emerged as a significant player in the digital advertising market in recent years, and is now third behind Google and Meta. Last week, Amazon reported a 23% increase in ad revenue for the second quarter to $15.7 billion, which beat estimates.
Read more CNBC Amazon coverage
Amazon’s ad business has largely been tied to its own platforms, with brands paying up so they can get discovered on the sprawling marketplace. However, Amazon’s demand-side platform (DSP), which allows brands to programmatically place ads across a wider swath of internet properties, is gaining more resonance in the market.
“Amazon is now unlocking access to traditionally exclusive ‘premium’ ad inventory across the open internet, validating the strength of its DSP and suggesting The Trade Desk’s value proposition could erode over time,” Wedbush analysts wrote on Friday.
The Wedbush analysts lowered their rating on The Trade Desk to the equivalent of hold from buy, and cited Amazon’s recent ad integration with Disney as a sign of the company’s aggressiveness.
Executives at The Trade Desk were asked about Amazon on the call, and responded by suggesting that the companies don’t really compete, emphasizing that Amazon is conflicted because it will always prioritize its own properties.
“A scaled independent DSP like The Trade Desk becomes essential as we help advertisers buy across everything and that we have to do that without conflict or compromise,” CEO Jeff Green said on the call. “It is my understanding that Amazon nearly doubled the supply of Prime Video inventory in the recent months. That creates a number of conflicts.”
For the second quarter, The Trade Desk reported a 19% increase in year-over-year revenue to $694 million, topping the $685 million estimate, according to analysts polled by LSEG. Adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents beat estimates by a penny.
Looking to the third quarter, the Trump administration’s tariffs were also a theme, as the company forecast revenue of at least $717 million, representing growth of 14% at minimum.
“From a macro standpoint, some of the world’s largest brands are absolutely facing pressure and some amount of uncertainty,” Green said. “Some have to respond more than others to tariffs. Many are managing inflation worries and the related pricing that comes with that.”
With Friday’s slump, The Trade Desk shares are now down 53% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up about 9%. The Trade Desk was added to the S&P 500 in June.
Meta and Alphabet both reported sales and earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations, but the strength in digital ad spend was notable.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said during the earnings call that AI helped imbue “greater efficiency and gains across our ad system,” thus contributing to the 22% year-over-year increase of second-quarter sales that hit $47.52 billion.
Meta finance chief Susan Li also told analysts during a follow-up earnings call on July 30 that the online ad market appears to have improved since April.
In April, Li noted that Asia-based online retailers pulled back on their digital ad spending amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty due to President Donald Trump‘s tough tariffs and the closing of the de minimis trade loophole.
This quarter, Li said there’s been a noticeable “improvement” with those Asian-based ecommerce firms, which have increased their digital ad spending on the platform along with small, North American-based advertisers.
“We generally expect another quarter of healthy advertising demand,” Li said about the advertising pickup.
Gil Luria, the head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, said that while there is still broader macroeconomic uncertainty, “today, digital advertising in general, is doing well; It is simply an extension of the fact that the consumer is still strong.”
“There’s optimism that consumer spending will hold up and therefore all the downstream markets will hold up,” Luria said.
“I think one of the things that its earnings taught us was that you can spend a lot of money on AI when your core business is doing well, and especially when your core business has been already benefiting from the investments that you’ve made in AI,” Jasmine Enberg, a vice president and principal analyst for eMarketer, said about Meta’s second quarter.
The continued jaw-dropping pace of AI spending also doesn’t seem to be slowing any time soon.
Alphabet added an extra $10 billion to its 2025 forecast for capital expenditures, now pegged at $85 billion, while Meta raised the low end of its capital expenditures for the year to come in between $66 billion and $72 billion instead of $64 billion and $72 billion.
Investors showed no signs of trepidation about Meta and Alphabet’s massive AI spend because those companies’ overall sales continued to rise.
Read more CNBC tech news
Outside of the tech giants, Redditreported strong second-quarter sales of $500 million, representing a 78% year-over-year increase that helped lift the company’s shares as much as 20%.
“They kind of rose back like a phoenix and had some extraordinary results,” Luria said about Reddit, which saw its shares plummet over 15% in February after it reported weaker-than-expected user numbers due to a Google search algorithm change.
Reddit’s blockbuster quarter contrasted with similar-sized peers like Snap and Pinterest, which both reported lukewarm quarterly earnings this week.
Snap’s second-quarter sales grew only 9% year-over-year and it missed Wall Street’s estimates on global average revenue per user, a metric that refers to how much money the company derives from each user.
Contributing to the miss was a botched update to Snap’s advertising platform that hurt the company’s “topline growth,” Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said in an investor letter.
The Snapchat parent on Wednesday also added Reddit to its list of competitors in its latest 10-Q filing on Wednesday, indicating a potential, burgeoning rivalry.
The head of Snapchat operator Snap, Evan Spiegel, presents the new generation of Spectacles.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Meanwhile, Pinterest shares sank over 10% on Thursday after it reported second-quarter earnings that missed on earnings per share.
Pinterest finance chief Julia Brau Donnelly told analysts during an earnings call that the company is still noticing some tariff-related concerns, “and broader market uncertainty” as it previously indicated in May.
Unlike Meta, Donnelly said that “Asia-based e-commerce retailers pulled back spend in the U.S.,” underscoring how some advertisers gravitate toward bigger online ad platforms amid any signs of global economic uncertainty.
“There’s very little room for mistakes or missteps,” Enberg said about the quarterly earnings reports from smaller tech firms like Snap and Pinterest.
Lip-Bu Tan, CEO of Intel, appears at an event organized by the company.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan addressed “misinformation” about his previous roles after President Donald Trump called for his resignation and raised ethical concerns.
” I want to be absolutely clear: Over 40+ years in the industry, I’ve built relationships around the world and across our diverse ecosystem – and I have always operated within the highest legal and ethical standards,” he wrote in a memo to employees on Thursday.
Tan said Intel is working with the White House to address the situation and that he supports the president’s dedication to “advancing U.S. national and economic security.” He said Intel’s board is “fully supportive” of the company’s transformation plan.
Tensions hit a boiling point Thursday when Trump told Tan to step down as CEO “immediately” in a post to Truth Social and called him “highly CONFLICTED.” Intel shares fell 3% for the day.
Trump’s demand coincided with questions from Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., over the CEO’s connection to Chinese companies and the potential ramifications for U.S. security.
“Intel is required to be a responsible steward of American taxpayer dollars and to comply with applicable security regulations,” Cotton wrote. “Mr. Tan’s associations raise questions about Intel’s ability to fulfill these obligations.”
In his letter, Cotton also highlighted a criminal case at Cadence Design Systems involving illegally shipping products to China and asked whether Intel made Tan liquidate investments in chipmakers tied to the Chinese Communist Party. Tan worked at Cadence for over a decade and served as CEO.
Tan was appointed CEO of Intel in March, replacing Pat Gelsinger, who was ousted by the board in December after struggling to turnaround the embattled chipmaker.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said in a note Thursday that the firm does not believe Tan is “conflicted,” but his connections to China depict an “increasingly bad look” considering who is currently in the White House.
“Unfortunately, unlike other tech CEOs Lip-Bu does not appear to have cultivated the kind of personal relationship with Trump that would help to assuage his ire,” Rasgon wrote. Trump may also be disappointed by recent decisions at the company, which included axing some foundry projects.